Large Normal 247 - Postgame

[Psyche]

maybe food is issue

[Psyche]

note: think is easy to overrate how confident i am in my solve from how attached i am to it.

i think it's decidedly the best possible solve atm and is close to the limit of what i can do today. i'd bet the whole game on it rn if i could. but none of this is the same as me feeling absolutely certain that the solve is true. like, for example, i'm okay betting the game on a possibly wrong solve in part because it's just a game and there's only so much i can do to find another solve to bet the game on.

overall, the evidence standard for absolute confidence in a sort is way higher than for absolute commitment to a sort, even if the two have the same implications for how one would behave next. and i'm not even being super consistent with the "absolute commitment to a sort" schtick anyway — ive indulging my paranoia about the solve being wrong by for example, and i still ask questions or say things w primary goal to help sort people. reasonable safeguards imo, though perhaps impolitic?

this is one of those posts i got a pt for maybe

[Psyche]

31 hours to deadline

I never would’ve believed this if you told me day 1, but I think you’re one of my strongest townreads now lol

What do you think is the best course of action at this point? I feel like if you, Gypyx and Thom are all on the same page, I’ll feel really good about our decision. If not, I’ll have to see what feels best.

other thing i dont like about this is the fact that it's so transparent what lf's opinion of the best course of action is.
lycanfire has

placed a vote

and the votecount was updated very close to the post above this.
his idea of what's the best course of action is public info even for people who haven't been reading his posts.

and if you're reading his posts and gypyx/thomith's posts it should be clear that the group is not at all on the same page about who are even plausible lim candidates. lycanfire has mostly narrowed to rn/gera and gypyx had kay/oblivion before deciding i'm scummier than both of these.

the fact of this transparency of the answer to kay's question puts me off because it raises the possibility that the post is performative, just there to look like kay is trying to find a good vote.

guess ill reiterate that i have my other reasons for TRing her though, and that there is obviously a reasonable explanation for why her posting here and elsewhere could have come from town

[Psyche]

ah! besides what gera volunteered, this is another thing that's different about kay's play this game than in her scum game. she's wayy more reactive to scrutiny than she was in her game as scum. i remember her responses to people weighing her as scum was almost kindly in the other game.

eg on reflection this impression of her meta seems more town-indicative than null. (but i guess it's hard to say.)

[Lycanfire]

Finished work at 1:30am. I'll be home soon and can discuss.

[Lycanfire]

Enchant / Titus

A lot of this comes down to:
1) Would Titus bus? If she did, she would try to get anything out of it. Ranger would have to be cool with it, and Ranger efforted. It seems to me that Titus made NO effort to save Ranger and there was no agreed upon bus (which would be required for Titus to bus Ranger)
2) Where would Ranger put her teammates? I feel like Ranger was trying to appease people on her wagon, and Titus was one of them. Titus went from 100% top tier, only person Ranger was sure of to second last. This is something I noted with myself ("Lycan is good at scum") and how Ranger was treating Kay. This is called negging. You could do this to a scum partner, but I see Ranger as wanting results from the practice. It backfired with me, because I remembered her doing the exact same fake paranoia in a past game with me.
3) The dis-associative I found:

I haven't changed my mind but I am wanting to give Ranger a chance if wrong. Dave Snow works for me.

It isn't much, but it's something.

[Psyche]

You're reasoning about busses how I would. My intuition is that scum bussing seeks a reward for what it's trading -- towncred.

Is hard to find positive evidence for bussing from this framework since town is frequently also quite motivated to seek reputation -- they also don't want to be scumread, they can use towncred to get their reads limmed, and they have ego-based reasons for seeking credit.
This is why I can't interpret Obsidian's clout-seeking after Ranger's lim as a meaningful sign wrt bussing.

Instead, I've looked for proof that someone's not bussing.
I seek out evidence that they're not setting themselves up to receive credit for a scum lim -- that they're not trying to put their signature on it, so to speak.
You look like you're doing the same thing.

But besides WIFOM,
where scum -- particularly scum sensitive like VCA like Titus -- can anticipate this reasoning and try to outplay it),
the problem I've found with this reasoning is that "not trying to put their signature" on a wagon looks really similar to being genuinely ambivalent about whether one wants to commit to wagon
town and scum can both be ambivalent about a wagon, but at best this observation renders null the info that your/my approach are seeking

should get more concrete:
how do you rule out from the posts you're quoting that titus is not just ambivalent about whether to bus ranger?
waiting to see whether the slot is as doomed as she's suspected it is?

[Lycanfire]

I don't think Ranger was doomed. I've been in worse situations as scum:

Town's hurting themselves by not resolving any of the problems present. Why would we give them a scum l***h when they all blundered into an L-1 wagon? They don't deserve it. Fuck them.

Titus would have loved the challenge?

[Psyche]

instead of saying goal of bussing is towncred, is maybe more concrete to say that the goal is "distancing",
which of course converts to towncred when the distanced-from slot is scum and gets flipped scum

anyway reminds that in general if we want to be able to really bet on a potential tell we've found,
it has to be something subtle enough that we can believe scum (at least the scum being considered) wouldn't think to fake it
we can't just ask if something is town-indicative. we also sort of have to do a second-order analysis.
a lot of people seem to think the question then is if the something is fakeable, but it feels like that's the path to only ever having null reads.
everything is fakeable in forum-based mafia.
but at same time ive found that "would scum think to fake this?" can have some surprising "yes" answers
good scumplay in part involves consistently doing these second order analyses on one's own play and peppering in subtle "towntells" that other town might think you wouldn't bother or think to drop as scum
(incidentally, kay is kind of good at that sort of scumplay)
how do you solve around that? i haven't decided yet. atm i let good scum get away until poe saves me or doesn't.

how's that connect to this titus/enchant thing?
i guess on reflection it's sort of unlikely that titus reasoned that her bussing would look more convincing if it ebbed and flowed.
the stuff above is not relevant about titus!

under the scenario where she was scum, the more likely reason she might ebb/flow on ranger might be that:

yeah, she's ambivalent about whether to commit to the bus.
here's why i think this is possible.
first, ranger definitely wanted to survive through most of the day. it's like you said, ranger tried to live.
ranger tried to cajole or bully people into re-evaluating their reads on her. she tried to look like she was sorting people, developing reads. and so on.
in a scum pt, this might have looked like her soliting room from teammates to let her try to live.
and in voting patterns/positioning, it might have put her teammates into a holding pattern around her.
Unwilling to push her hard, but also unwilling to be associated with her,
with leaning one way or the other based on trust in ranger's ability to carry out her goal,
but also on a guess about how much commitment to ranger is really necessary to get credit for bussing her.

so again, to me, this is consistent with titus's and gera's play.
a balance between distancing and bussing that you make while a teammate's fate is unclear.
ranger's fate was arguably unclear for a long time.
gypyx/thomith even timed their votes to hammer from L-2 because they were worried that the wagon might be abandoned if they left on L-1 for a while.
the above is proof that even to town eyes, ranger's fate was up in the air.
scum might be disincentivized to hardbus in that scenario if they still prefer a world where ranger is alive over one where ranger dies and they get credit for pushing scum.

it can also be imagined that town would be in a holding pattern around ranger because they, like, aren't able to get or stick confidently to a read on her or whatever.
hence the question:
what do we have to interpret titus's position on ranger as not "trying to get anything out of it" instead of as taking the safe position on a wagon whose success would at best have ambiguous consequences for her wincon?

[KayJayQueue]

31 hours to deadline

I never would’ve believed this if you told me day 1, but I think you’re one of my strongest townreads now lol

What do you think is the best course of action at this point? I feel like if you, Gypyx and Thom are all on the same page, I’ll feel really good about our decision. If not, I’ll have to see what feels best.

and if you're reading his posts and gypyx/thomith's posts it should be clear that the group is not at all on the same page about who are even plausible lim candidates. lycanfire has mostly narrowed to rn/gera and gypyx had kay/oblivion before deciding i'm scummier than both of these.

the fact of this transparency of the answer to kay's question puts me off because it raises the possibility that the post is performative, just there to look like kay is trying to find a good vote.

I think maybe I just worded it wrong. I meant if those three could GET on the same page. I’ve barely heard from Thom recently and I feel like his input could be crucial. That’s why I was asking about best course of action since while Lycan is currently voting, our voting as a whole is disjointed and he expressed wanting everyone to come to a consensus (at least it seemed that way) so I asked what he thought would be best.

[Psyche]

I don't think Ranger was doomed. I've been in worse situations as scum:

Town's hurting themselves by not resolving any of the problems present. Why would we give them a scum l***h when they all blundered into an L-1 wagon? They don't deserve it. Fuck them.

Titus would have loved the challenge?

ok, we agree that ranger wasn't doomed
i guess you think titus would have defended ranger under the scenario where she's not doomed

[Psyche]

other important context is that there was momentum against ranger's slot even D1.
feel like the fact that it was a constant feature of the game starting from like page 2 might have induced some fatalism about the slot even if concretely town were open to going another way.
is definitely clear that

ranger

didn't think her slot was all that doomed.

[Psyche]

2.11

Votecount 2.11

Ranger (4): Hu Tao, Random Nurse, Thomith, Gypyx
Naerys (2): PenguinPower, Naerys
Hu Tao (2): Lycanfire, Ranger
Thomith (1): Snow2697
Snow2697 (1): Titus

Not Voting (3): Oblivion, geraintm, KayJayQueue

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-04-06 10:29:00).

Mod Notes: The combined mod ISO is here.

VOTE: Ranger

We can do Ranger now. Ranger's response to me voting Snow was horrible. Ranger sees Gypyx and Thomlith won't be divided so she's moving them up her reads list.

Ranger, the difference between you and Willow is my townreads are active and people are posting now. If you think my theory on Wisp also applies to you, who are the scum that don't give a damn.

Frankly, it's easy to post a series of names gradually moving people where you want them to be over time with no reasoning.

When you do post reasons, they are clearly bad.

Ranger Snow +1 inactive calling it

2.16

Votecount 2.16

Ranger (E-2): Random Nurse, Titus, Oblivion, PenguinPower, Lycanfire
Hu Tao (2): Ranger, Naerys
Snow2697 (2): Thomith, Gypyx
PenguinPower (2): KayJayQueue, Hu Tao
Thomith (1): Snow2697

Not Voting (1): geraintm

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-04-07 10:29:00).

Mod Notes: The combined mod ISO is here.

I feel like I’m defending myself for trying to play the game.

What a coincidence, so am I!

My argument in part is that the wagon on me, with no counterwagon, is

deliberately designed to prevent players from playing the game

.

It warps the game around me and makes the game entirely about me.

I didn’t sign up for that, nor did I cause it. My efforts have consistently been to

dissuade

that gamestate, as there’s never anything good to come from focusing entirely on one player.

My question to you is

why have my efforts failed?

Why is the game entirely still about me?

I certainly would prefer it otherwise!

So why do I remain the sole focus of players

despite

my efforts?

It’s almost like me remaining the focus is beneficial to scum.

I know which alignment that implies for me.

I've made this exact rant as scum.

Also, side eye on the claim

Titus could be scum I guess but idk

If you think Ranger is scum, why are you not voting there?

hmmm this does seem like a serious commitment to the wagon actually
my whole memory of her position around ranger is off, just because she gave ranger some breathing room at the start of D2 (the posts you reference)

from here it's totally plausible that she sought to "put her signature" on the wagon after waiting to see how the wind blew.
idea that she didn't try to "get anything out of it" doesn't seem too relevant here. if she's scum, she definitely did!

on the other hand, it's also totally plausible that she recommitted to a scumread after seeing a replacement of her scumread keep being scummy

[Psyche]

edit: breathing room wasn't "at the start of d2". more accurate to say it was "at the replace-in".

[Psyche]

ok after all this i feel inclined to think lf's interpretation of titus's trajectory D2 is off, separately from whether it's scummy or not

now have to decide again if i think the actual trajectory was scummy!
...
am at a loss

[Psyche]

can we change topics?
why do you think geraintm is scum?
i'll assume it's not because my case on him is so good

[Enchant]

CAN WE VOTE ALREADY

[Lycanfire]

I think random nurse is a more likely bus vote. His only worthwhile contribution is a vote, which reads like scaredscum assuming there's a guilty on his partner. They townslip not knowing who Ranger replaced, but it seems more aware than Titus imo.

OK.

VOTE: Dave

VOTE: Naerys
can u just vote me out i dont wanna read Rangers posts anymore

Can you just vote ranger

I suspect there's a very specific reason why you want us to vote Ranger?

If Ranger turns out to be Town I'll be coming for you.

VOTE: Ranger

Fuck.

I'm already voting them.

(That's how fucked this IRL week has been.)

They spent the entirety of day 2 arguing with Gypyx.

Yes but it's highly, HIGHLY, HIIIIIIIIIGHLY unrealistic of you to base your expectations around that

Is that my expectation?

...or are you just reacting a tad bit defensively?

What i'm saying is that maybe it's possible but if you don't have anything that points to that then holy shit you're making the most unlikely possibilities first

...

Interesting.

So, why exactly are you not voting Thomith?

Is he completely off the table for you today?

Could be a slip from the scum PT that they were (presumably) acting strangely in the hood and was rolefishing.

Hey, Gypyx, why do you think Jackson was killed?

Distraction/scumangle.

I have the sneaking suspicion that should Ranger flip Town I'll be the convenient scapegoat.

does fuck all to push ranger. this post looks fake.

Did nothing to interact with Ranger. Asked them for reads one time. It's Ranger you don't have to ask.

why do you suspect dave

Meta. He seems off this game.

As is that's not that convincing.

Could you be a bit more specific please?

sure they questioned the NAS wagon repeatedly and this could have had morale collapse onto Dave. IMO, Dave was worth elimination and random nurse stood to benefit.

[Enchant]

Oh bleh we all voting Gera nvm

[Lycanfire]

can we change topics?
why do you think geraintm is scum?
i'll assume it's not because my case on him is so good

non-ranger voter. no charisma. checks the box of teammate that didn't save ranger when ranger wanted to live. attitude seems fakeable, poe is way too large. went contrarian on our asses yesterday in the same vein as random nurse. didn't like how he made you v me yesterday a binary foregone conclusion. I think ranger could have tried to fake sort him better, but she obviously didn't care because they were partners. he also randomly shifted multiple spots for no reason at all in her tierlists.

[Lycanfire]

ok, a little catching up to do.

start here

VOTE: Snow

this vote, combined with them jumping on late yesterday raises concerns. if there was a bus then this is where i think it was, following up with trying to direct day 3 so obviously.

post 1412 is almost like they have set up snow for a while to take the fall today. lycan has also been setting snow up.

(i kinda want to flip snow because it gives so much info about people)

Snow's entry is very defensive.

FWIW this is where I think I am right now:

Lycanfire
Snow2697

[/b]

this is so weird, these 3 are locked in a weird death spiral with each other. strongly think there is at least 1 scum in there. just doesn't make sense otherwise, feels like someone has been caught and scum is lashing out in the group

It will only kill Naerys today.

why?

If not the hood, an option can be to look at Naerys-geraintm (both did not vote scum!Dave, but voted town!NAS) and also at Wisp-Naerys conflict dating back to D1 (Wisp looks more town due to his vote into Ranger on D2).
Penguin voted scum!Ranger, so some details on why he is scum might be helpful.

you do know day 1 i will just vote the biggest thread?
yesterday i had no strong view on who was scum or not, certainly i had nothing to indicate Ranger was scum, hence my not voting.

If I was scum why would I swing the momentum back to execute Ranger when it seemed that momentum may have begun picking up elsewhere?

what momentum elsewhere? it was clear Ranger was going yesterday from early on, there was at least 1 scum on their wagon if not both.

It is considering a Mass Claim at this point. We have had 2 nights of actions, it wonders if a third benefits us over forcing claims.

It would like to do this in a Popcorn styling.

i think i am in favour of this, feels like some good claims will trap scum with nowhere else to go. ranger already got done with a bad claim so i dont think scum are good at coming up with good claims between them

We will see. It is most amused you believe you get to dictate today.

Snow is off the table.

I'm not stating I get to dictate the day. In fact I said I'm willing to go outside the hood because I may be tunnelled, I'm just voting my biggest scumread right now.

your snap vote post 1 today certainly gave the mpression you wanted to

i think though VOTE: naerys. the way they jumped off Ranger straight after the claim and gave the impression they did not want to go in thehood. also things like this

Any further thoughts on this yet?

Not fond of the way Titus and gera switched to dave tbh
also kinda dont like Penguin´s position on Wisp, but also i dont like Wisp himself and the way he "suspects" me

On the other side i think dave could be town, he doesnt really feel different from his previous towny games. So i think looking into those, who think dave could be scum is warranted

this post is poo

[Psyche]

rn's paranoid style seems cleanly town to me

i had some more concrete examples somewhere, but they are mostly just wild thoughts that i keep feeling like a scum wincon would suppress

[Lycanfire]

Fuck.

I'm already voting them.

(That's how fucked this IRL week has been.)

realizes this within a minute of their vote post?

please

[Psyche]

ok. we have roughly same reasons for scumreading gera. reassuring. i'll open myself up to RN-scum if gera flips town. i'll also drink a fireball. as a form of self-harm. otherwise tomorrow looks around as grueling as today. find myself even wondering if i should reconsider oblivion. (but probably not.)

[Lycanfire]

I think this is the elimination we should have had yesterday.