Large Normal 247 - Day 5

[Psyche]

ok.
anyway i think naeyrs is probably a better choice than no lim unless i can find something as compelling as that obsidian post.
but i must confess i'm still ambivalent about the option.
still, i'm inclined to bet on oblivion having the best understanding of the gamestate atm (you seem close too tbh but)

for example,

There was a point at which Ranger was going to live yesterday, after the claim. For it, only Thomith or Gypyx can be bussing, because the others came along to nail in the coffin Ranger.

this seems correct and maybe a better take on the ranger wagon than i perceived from you a recent post

[Psyche]

even gypyx has acknowleged that her obsidian vote was not thought out
is odd though that thom followed

[Lycanfire]

I guess in that sense, we should hammer anyone before deadline.

[Lycanfire]

UNVOTE:

Let's not actually do this lmao

i'm very much dissapointed in you Thomith

Trust me I'm disappointed in myself too lol.

Of course it would have been funny if this had actually gone through, but I got cold feet

With that being said, I do want to get some information out of Day 1 that a quick lim probably doesn't get us.

Naerys is probably right that there is a decent chance that the scum might have been hiding on the wagon as it was growing

Pretty early to decide to crumb this in the small chance you go through with a gambit.

It just doesn't make enough sense for me to waste brainpower on.

[Psyche]

idk. their roles sort of imply that their power is wasted if one or the other flips.
they aren't regular masons where the flip of one implies the existence of the other.
breadcrumb has best odds of being picked up if it's in an early post.

[Psyche]

gypyx does have an odd post where she scumreads snow for noticing that she and thomith are inordinately trusting one another
and thomith's perspective on D2 seems off to me, with this oblivion vote being the most salient consequence of that
RN's not

totally

off-base for being paranoid

[Psyche]

:roll:
If u think scum would blatantly refuse to vote their partner u are wrong
Scum!me would yeet ranger without hesitation

ugh. am honestly inclined to believe this

I still stand by my refusal to vote ranger anyway. We were risking yeeting potential PR, so i would look at those, who were super confident in that lim first

and this too (though it's a bit galling)

[Psyche]

Situational doesn't match. Lycan was clearly town from replacement and Peguin was disconnected enough to rejoin and simply believe the claim if he wanted. Town and Town. Ranger was very clearly trying to live.

I agree withbthe last statement.

I believe at least one person hard pushing Ranger was probably bussing, because I believe that slot was kind of doomed already.

i can't agree here but it's important context for interpreting where thomith is right now

[Psyche]

To elaborate a bit more

this is a bit of preflipping but in a scum!snow world naerys always busses

especially given HOW she went about refusing to lim the claim, scum trying to let a partner go rarely does the whole "i have no faith in this town" schtick

the overall self righteousness is town indicative

sussing me is a plan that's gonna be tough to make work as scum and she probably wouldn't have tried it straight up

the self vote

i have seen it in the stars

etc..

this take seems like a correct interpretation of naeyrs tonally tbh. wonder if this is oblivion's first naeyrs game or not. feel more confident that it's lycanfires -- am i right?

[Lycanfire]

I've never played with Naerys before.

[Random Nurse]

VOTE: Titus

[Lycanfire]

idk. their roles sort of imply that their power is wasted if one or the other flips.
they aren't regular masons where the flip of one implies the existence of the other.
breadcrumb has best odds of being picked up if it's in an early post.

My point being to assume Thomith/Gypyx are scum Thomith would have had to crumb on page2, when they may never go down that route of fake claiming.

[Psyche]

oh ok
i think you and i are close to on the same page about everything this game
am just now noticing that you realized sheeping oblivion might be a good approach to D3 dozens of pages ago

[Lycanfire]

What does a scum!naerys look like and is it discernably different from her as town,

Has she suffered any painful scum losses recently?

Meta can only be so much of a shield.

Who is scum Psyche?

[Psyche]

i think naeyrs couldd be scum, but id be more inclined to bet on it being a combo of titus/gera/kay -- even though that's a pretty boring combo. if i could just pick someone to die today it might be gera. but i'm not still not sure. the weird thing about this game for me is that snow/gera are both playing in a way that's unrecognizeable to me given my previous experience with these slots, where they mostly lurked and/or posted useless gummy stuff. gera was scum in the previous game while snow was town. i'm still really unsure how to roll with that.

but feel like most responsible thing for me to do given how fresh my readthrough is and how close deadline is would be to default to naeyrs and accept that i'll look kind of suspicious tomorrow for being such a wishy-washy entry to the wagon if she flips town.

[Psyche]

actually if i could pick someone to die today it would probably be titus. but honestly i can't sort titus in general. vigged her in a previous game when she was town. play is indistinguishable for me, and not in a way that signals she must be town this game.

[Psyche]

yeah i agree one last bit of effort would be to try to dig into a naeyrs scum game...

[Psyche]

hmm why am i townreading snow? also would like to clarify if that's a good call

[Lycanfire]

He reacted pretty well early d3. D1 vca has him as town.

[Psyche]

actually yeah too many posts are townpinging me. i can see posts by gera and kay and snow that i find hard to imagine from scum -- though not necessarily that hard. either way, i'm not going to find a confident solve that excludes naeyrs today. would be silly to attempt counterwagon without such confidence. i'll try again tomorrow if I have to.

I do think gypyx's towncase on naeyrs has a lot to it and it sort of fits with why I'm inclined to think naeyrs is town. But it's not much more of a tonal/meta read -- not really rooted in the strength of her play or assessment of its consistency w/ town (or scum) win condition. So I can't value it enough to call for everyone to flip the board.

By comparison, I think oblivion being scum is super implausible at this point based on its ranger positioning -- it does not look like a bus to me.

some gaps id address if i had infinite time...
- why does thomith currently have a vote on oblivion?
- is the towncase for snow really so strong that i shouldn't take the counterwagon seriously?

eghhhh. i think part of me is interested in the idea of snow over naeyrs so i guess i can't ditch the thread yet

[Psyche]

haha i think with that post ive thrown out any potential towncred for voting naeyrs if she flips scum
but oh well

[Lycanfire]

We should eliminate anyone. I've said my piece and most of the playerlist is missing

In ascending order of last to recent posts:
Geraintm
Gypyx
Snow
Kay
Oblivion
Naerys
Randomnurse
Psyche
Myself

Have posted since april 16. We can maybe count on up to 9 people to show up. Not guaranteed. 6 to lim.

Some of these people will not self vote (presumably)
-oblivion
-naerys

So that's 7 active people for certain wagons. Ditto same if we do geraintm or kay.*

*none of this includes current voters you do the math from here im going to sleep soon

It's been long enough that some of these people could oopsie and either through accident or purpose not post before deadline.

From this perspective there's value in a Titus lim, but that's the only reason I can think of to lim her.

[Psyche]

should we do me? just to be sure? i'll self-vote if you're sure a mislim is really better than a nolim

i guess the question doesn't work if you think naeyrs is scum

[Lycanfire]

It's 8 active people to count on, i accidentally'd an entire person on the list and didnt go back and change the number

[Lycanfire]

I mean you're probtown now you were just annoying the shit out of me with your certainty in reads without any scums.