note that ties in votes are broken randomly
half asleep first post bad
86 bad post- later note: experience has done this 3 times I think now, dam
note 118. Elements somewhat seriously perhaps claims if vig they will be vigging Moros, and Moros did indeed end up dying.
experience feels scummy again on p6
note CSF’s 153+158. the CM shading was shading a towny so the OD (lmao OD=overdose) praising in 158 could be protecting a buddy. CSF's avatar is so adorable that she would probably not bus her teammates and help them out as much as possible. maybe.
lmao at Cee Mirage’s parody of Ranger’s catch-up on page 7
182 Imaginality defends CSF
186- oh is it, experience? defending CSF eh?
192 the 'queen' feels like Black and Titus aren’t partnered. oh wait I'm titus! ok yeah we aren't (:
193 interesting that OD is defending CSF but i also townread CSF's posts kinda so maybe NAI
211 Think about OopsieDaisy’s reaction. Is it relief? or genuine towny happiness. I think I lean towards towny happiness for now...
Page 9 etc. Black Ranger lurking so I can see why they were voted out
229 interesting post, Imaginality kinda scumhunting well, but Ming was just VT though
230 also a good Imaginality post
231 oh really Elements? Backing out?
Black feels different and townie (from before) (:
241 yep I kinda agree Black
242 I also somewhat agreed Black, but how wrong we were eh
245 from CSF=? Hmmmm. I did too but was CSF vouching for her buddy or was she just pocketing? I think I lean towards pocketing, for now
247 good CM post pushing Elements
249 baddish LG post, awesome wasn't really talking about ability level but more how the strategy could be scumsided, methinks. and how right awesome was eh?
266 CSF soft defending Imaginality?
20 second gap 288 to 289 Black active townie?
293 AIRPORT PLANE SCUM SCUM OMG OD SCUM? I SWEAR ANYONE WHO GETS ON A PLANE IS SCUM OK I'LL TRY PUT IS AS NAI BUT DOING OTHER THINGS IS REALLY TEMPTING RN
316 probs NAI from imaginality but idk 100% what to make of it. ehhh i'll just leave it ig
321 Elements is just sheeping black. Elements/Imaginality might be the scum team.
Black/ha not the scum team based off of 325 not being synced up with ha's 66. but asking for a fast night is very funny ahaha.
329 Moros wanted to vote Imaginality, Imaginality might be the sk.
342 experience probs not SK/vig as if they knew they would shoot Moros they probably wouldn't make this post
345 Cee Mirage slips to be Aureal! bum bum bummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
353 Imaginality would now rather have Ming than Moros. so maybe not SK after all. but idk
355 Oh really OD? You liked Imaginality’s posting? This doesn't seem to link up with what you thought in 638??
358 interesting anti-OD point from awesome, even if he was maybe partly joking
371 cos thomith is smart (:
375 Alianna crumbing the night actions lmao
381 meh vote from halfasleep
393+394 extremely lazy from Experience. idk which alignment that is coming from atm tho.
421 note the (potential
)accuracy from Moros here. maybe Imaginality is SK after all
422 well it’s not me!!
433 could be interesting to analyse, tho idk what to make of it. about whether OD had partner equity with Moros (clearly they were not partners but OD could still be scum...)
435 Elements is disengaged
@Cee Mirage‘s 439: maybe, maybe
P19 Black not noticing Aureal‘s altslip is interesting but maybe towny especially with the getting high on weed references and stuff probably coming from town smoking the pain of solving away or something like that
475 yes (@484 AHAHA black town? in sync)
478 Drew‘s pro-black point noted
498 spooky wagoningwagony kinda vote from Experience
499 and 500 20 second delay, kinda scummy for not being instantaneous as don’t need to let Alianna get the pagetops this game. maybe experience just had bad signal or something though
502 bringing CSF somewhat back into the limelight feels kinda +town for OD(Imaginality mentioned this in 607 and I agree (: )
510 potential day 1 VC
503-520 opportunistic from OD? there was 6 hours between tho so probs nothing major
534 RIP CM
537 end of n0
554 weird from OD, cos like, of course you should vote there!… why feel the need to point it out beyond trying to make yourself look good?
560 elements diverting from CSF
561 OD hedging
575 Elements further diverting off their buddy CSF?
577 the fact Imaginality isn’t really considering/mentioning 1-shot vig here probably gives them SK equity
587 Elements spreading confusion, maybe
598 OD probably not the vig/SK
603-604: that was quick, experience!
605 weird inconclusive hedging from Experience not really adding much
607 yeah this is a good post from imaginality. then again, did sk!imaginality leap upon the opportunity to case someone who was very likely scum to gain townpoints? or indeed mafiabuddy!imaginality?
614 yeah me three
622 interesting Imaginality anti-elements point. He also agrees again that OD/CSF don’t seem to be paired
624 LG declares Imaginality as locktown. So why Imaginality not been nked? hmmmm
634 well cited by OD. might be towny engagement
640 weird list from elements. why not offer a read either way to the light+CSF situation? and why only have two tiers: “can vote” and "Won’t vote tomorrow"? Is there no differentiation between anyone in the first tier? Even the "tomorrow" in the second tier feels hedgey, as if they are all too willing to change their reads to their benefit.
641 OD had forgotten halfasleep existed. not many posts from her so fair. idk if this is AI but maybe is slightly towny to point out she forgot HA existed
665 etc. others are reading Black as town, too
667 cool idea from Imaginality, as it is of benefit to the town it might be coming from the mindset of town!Imaginality. also I just saw Imaginality's signature and am now lolling.
669 pointing this out is a bit strange from experience mefeels but idkkkkk
673 woahh so true and I’ve been doing something similarrrrr
695 experience saying "I think" is maybe also kind of hedgeyyyyy but this is only a minor pointtttt
698 experience pushing for who Ming voted feels pretty good though. I also have the innate curiosity of who voted who
714 and before Black vs Drew kinda maybe just feels like TvT
718 viva la wifom from CFS (:
727 "lead the town" feels towny from Black (: )
740 interesting from Drew. Did Black nk him or is she being framed?
Imaginality improving their posting n1 as alluded to by OD in 638 could have been acting scummier/nuller n0 to avoid being NKed (source: see what happened to Cee Mirage
) BUT WAIT DIDNT YOU THINK THEIR POSTS WERE TOWN OD? ehhhh
P30 Black annoyed at Drew scumreadimg her but idk what to make of it
769 OD belatedly following up on HA‘s AMA
771 772 3 minute gap then is interesting. was HA being shouted at in scum PT to get to the thread before being prodded? but then HA does semiaccuse OD so maybe not HA+OD team but idk
793-795 were towny from OD tho
809 Imaginality's readspost seems like a good post
810 Ming‘s last words: go for Elements and OD
820 end of n1
835+837 feel true from Black
840 true dat from Imaginality, as Black pointed out later yeah it was kinda well-noticed
855 It‘s not me so (:
864 OD wondering how to hunt an sk feels genuine. +865 is a good thing to realise/share with us (light very likely not SK)
869 Imaginality might be having a bit too much fun talking about serial killers
878 Black remembering to come back to that post feels honest and towny
883 don't think about it too hard, beyond us probably not being SK because that’s too fun a role to pass up
886 Black certain that there are 2 mafia left is interesting
895 re:voting me-- don‘t do that experience ):
899 i'm not a good lim ehhh why everyone ganging up on my slot rnnnnn
900 might be towny from OD to come back a lot later (58 minutes or so later) and correct what she said, especially in a noticeable pagetop, but could also be panicky scum so idk
919 I agree, Black
923 sk!Imaginality might be gathering people‘s thoughts to help know who to NK
I like 931 from Black here
934 could be a good point from Black, unless it was preplanned from Black+CAF team it feels like a pretty valid point
Black reaction to my entrance feels kinda towny, scum!her might be scared and cowering in a corner (hehehe). And in general I think there is a genuine desire to solve coming through more so than ever this time. hopefully.
924 HA not considering there being only 1 mafia so left is so weird. Imaginality above (in post 923)at least said "E.g." to leave some to the imagination but halfasleep semmed very confident there were 2 coordinating scum left.
Claimed votes:
d1:
Black Ranger: light, OD, CSF, Thomith, Imaginality (666), Black (768), Ming (783)
Ming: HA (591), experience (604)
Black: Drew (600)
Confirmed by experience in 659
d2:
Daisy: Black (823)
Ming: OD (824), Light (828), Imaginality (831), Experience (849), HA (867)
I think Light’s claim is true (not SvS). It’s entirely possible an unclaimed 1-shot cop with a random green check would decimate her when she claimed 1-shot cop.
Let C be the number of cops rolled
C~B(7,0.15)
P(C=0)= around 0.4
P(C=1)=7C1(0.15)(0.85)^6=0.3960
P(C=2)=0.2097
P(C=3)=0.0109
If C=1, she would be hard CCed. If C=2 she would be likely CCed, as 2C almost 20 times as likely as 3C. So it’s a very risky gambit mefeels. So why wasn’t Light killed yesterday? *insert spiderman meme about no u no u for the light kill* or they guessed she was one-shot or just generally wanted to cause paranoia
For scum setup stuff:
Let T be number of vanilla townies rolled.
T~B(7,1/2)
a priori:
P(TTTTTTT)= 0.0078
P(TTTTTT)= 0.0547
P(TTTTT)= 0.1641
P(TTTT)= 0.2734
P(TTT)= 0.2734
P(TT)= 0.1641
P(T)= 0.0547
P(-)= 0.0078
come back to this later also work out probability of sk vs vig ig
