Tier is my only townread other than you right now, and the only person I am not touching. Your reasoning on him is identical to mine on Ceph, so excuse me if I don't care about it.
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Post #3257 (isolation #404) » Wed May 06, 2015 3:31 am
Postby Cephrir »
There are plenty of reasons that could be the case. I don't find speculating on scum's choices for who to send is very useful, since in my experience they do not choose particularly well.
T-Bone could easily just be the most expendable, though.
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Post #3262 (isolation #405) » Wed May 06, 2015 3:38 am
Postby Cephrir »
In post 3258, Wisdom wrote:That's fucking bullshit. Why risk their kill failing? Why risk tbone getting caught even if he was expendable (which I personally don't see but whatever)?
If T-Bone is scum, there probably isn't a town roleblocker.
In post 3260, Wisdom wrote:It's a no-brainer you don't send your most suspicious to carry out the kill, ffs.
I've done it >_>
They also know there's a tracker, presumably -- so why risk someone useful getting caught when T-Bone checked out days ago?
We have no dead scum and yet every time I look at any player I have huge doubts about whether they're scum or not. I can literally talk myself out of any lynch in the game at this point which is terrifying, scum are playing very well.
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Post #3274 (isolation #409) » Wed May 06, 2015 6:33 am
Postby Cephrir »
In post 3271, Iecerint wrote:Or if he protected another scum. More and more likely as no one claims
T-Bone got the tracker result. If another scum was protected by Rhinox (unless said scum was Wisdom MAYBE???), they would pretty much know that Rhinox couldn't possibly be the tracker.
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Post #3287 (isolation #410) » Wed May 06, 2015 7:25 am
Postby Cephrir »
My team has made a decent point involving Reck possibly being town. I do think he's capable of being a crafty bugger but This would leave us with a pool of 4 (assuming Wisdom town), and we don't think shos and T-Bone can be scum together.
Everything that springs to my mind always seems too easy even so.
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Post #3289 (isolation #411) » Wed May 06, 2015 7:28 am
Postby Cephrir »
They think his recent emotions have seemed genuine and in line with what town should be feeling (and we're feeling it too, so).
I honestly don't remember why you think T-Bone can't be scum without Reck though I'm quite sure you've said so; but I am considering voting for neither of them.
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Post #3297 (isolation #413) » Wed May 06, 2015 7:46 am
Postby Cephrir »
In post 3293, Wisdom wrote:If you and Reck are town, I am quite sure that at least one of Tbone's scumbuddies would join the counterwagon. That to me means either Reck is the buddy who joined the counterwagon, or you (Ceph) are also scum.
Iec has made noises about voting for me at some point or another.
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Post #3319 (isolation #418) » Wed May 06, 2015 9:49 am
Postby Cephrir »
In post 3316, shos wrote:In my eyes, the fact that we have gone so much time into the day and literally no wagon rose over 2-3 votes means we're on the right track. there's much resistance to what seems to be ALL wagons? when does that happen? when the wagons are on scum.
When the town is dithering and can't come to an agreement. Basically you're saying "scum haven't all piled on one wagon yet therefore all the wagons are scum except actually hang on I think only 1-2 of them is scum and the scum aren't piling on a counterwagon because ???"
There's just no logic to this post at all.
In post 3316, shos wrote:sooo I think that since me, tier and reck aren't quite the popular wagons everyone thinks will go throguh, I bet this is at least one scum voting, and at least 1 or 2 scums in the other wagons - {Tbone, Ceph, Iec}. this fits with my previous theory of Tbone and Iec scumtogeter, so I'm still leaning on checking that way.
This is a totally fucking random conclusion.
In post 3316, shos wrote:it really doesn't look like any new arguments are being considered. it's all blabber of, we have X events, each one rates it differently by order of importance and alignment-telling level, and it's a dead end.
You clearly aren't paying attention. We're discussing nuanced looks at the things we know. My opinions are shifting at the least -- I wanted to lynch Reck & T-Bone 5 pages ago and I don't think I want to lynch either of them now.
In post 3316, shos wrote:I offer a suggestion - we choose two/three wagons and focus on them. ifsomething new arises, of course, everyone can offer a new one; but for now, focus on less.
How about we scumhunt instead
What is this supposed to do? "Everyone stop your vanity wagons, but I'm not saying which ones to stop, and also it's ok to start new vanity wagons"
In post 3331, Cephrir wrote:oh look at wisdom having a simplistic view of the gamestate
yeah the sad part there's nobody who can follow me in this playerlist so scum can counter me with sarcasm like this
People must mindlessly sheep you elsewhere, because there is nothing to follow when you don't post your reasoning.
In post 3341, shos wrote:ceph, I admit I might have missed a couple of things over the last 10 pages or so, my last few days were bad; but I still think what I said in that post is good. yes, I'm saying drop vanity wagons and focus on one scum by one, and not the entire scumteam by itself. Games are *usually* not breakable by looking at roles. we don't have copouts apart from NS - does that make it OK to have *SIX* wagons, each with 1-2 votes?
Yes, it does. It's not like the deadline is tomorrow.
In post 3341, shos wrote:could you explain to me how focusing on 2-3 wagons is scummy in your opinion?
It's a useless thing to say and obviously isn't about to happen because you said so.
In post 3341, shos wrote:you extremely oversimplified my post when you mocked me over there. the idea is simple. really. is there anyone that thinks that ALL three of ceph, Tbone, and Iece are town? no? I thought so. so why not pick your scummy lot of these, and work with these?
There are nine players in this game. Does anyone think that all three of shos, reck and tiershift are town? I didn't think so. that makes exactly as much sense as what you just said.
In post 3341, shos wrote:"Because TS is scum too" - cool, ok, work with that tomorrow. the game is stagnating. in the previous weeks our posting rate has been MUCH higher imo. right now, it seems like a yes/no/but wait/no/yes bickering for 10 pages.
We are debating our options. It's called mafia, try playing it!
We don't exactly have oodles of fucking days to spare here.
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Post #3376 (isolation #428) » Thu May 07, 2015 3:21 am
Postby Cephrir »
She makes those "specifically invite everyone to vote my wagon" posts every now and then, and it's sort of a pet peeve. She's great and all but that is just the most annoying thing to me.
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Post #3387 (isolation #430) » Thu May 07, 2015 3:47 am
Postby Cephrir »
In post 3383, Wisdom wrote:Ask him, does he have much experience with Ceph? Is that meta read confident, or is he basing it off one game or something? Also don't forget this is Team Mafia, namely a big deal.
I've played with him a few times. For what little it's worth, I have three types of games. Apathetic town, engaged town, and engaged scum. I am never apathetic scum. I'm less apathetic now than I was before, but I'm far from on a roll. I'd have much clearer reads and pushes, and in fact would look more town, if I weren't town.
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Post #3426 (isolation #437) » Thu May 07, 2015 4:29 am
Postby Cephrir »
In post 3412, Wisdom wrote:also lol @ "based on nothing". Every single change I have made is crystal clear and everyone can tell what I am thinking and why at any given moment.
I have to disagree with you there.
In post 3415, Wisdom wrote:shos is actually right now that I think about it. It's a misleading thing and fits scum more than town
This, however, is true and has occurred to me.
In post 3421, xRECKONERx wrote:Bins: Conditional Cop
Cabd: Limited Vote Mover
Cephrir: ???
GreyICE: Night Action Checker Thing
Iecerint: ???
Katsuki: 1-shot Miller Thread Unlocker
notscience: Hated Townie?
Rhinox: Loud Doctor
shos: ???
T-Bone: Roleblocker
TierShift: ???
Wisdom: Day Messenger
xRECKONERx: Points Awarder
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Post #3449 (isolation #441) » Thu May 07, 2015 4:41 am
Postby Cephrir »
Also don't think this argument has any point though.
I need to iso the people who give me the most heebie jeebies I guess
Pedit @Wisdom: Just because he is wrong about whether your role could be used for fuckery doesn't make him scum. I'm thinking about it, but [grumbling noises].
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Post #3454 (isolation #442) » Thu May 07, 2015 4:42 am
Postby Cephrir »
Basically, my concerns:
-I'm not sure Reck is more likely to flip scum than shos/iec/tiershift.
-If he does flip town, we might do something stupid tomorrow, like lynching me, or something possibly dumb, like lynching t-bone
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Post #3458 (isolation #443) » Thu May 07, 2015 4:43 am
Postby Cephrir »
In post 3453, Wisdom wrote:His whole point is "omg but there are other misleading roles, having this misleading role doesnt make me scum, leave me alone"
and he is arguing against logic because he cant just drop that
If all bad arguments were from scum we'd have lynched shos a really long time ago.
In post 3453, Wisdom wrote:His whole point is "omg but there are other misleading roles, having this misleading role doesnt make me scum, leave me alone"
and he is arguing against logic because he cant just drop that
If all bad arguments were from scum we'd have lynched shos a really long time ago.
Dammit Ceph I love you <3
You seemed to hate me earlier! Is this half assed buddying?
In post 3475, Cephrir wrote:It has only just now occurred to me that the tracker probably didn't show up today on account of sending their result to rhinox
sorry for being off topic
Or its one-shot or someone was just fucking with me. Like I feel like something is wrong because compared to everyone else my role is mundane.
I mentioned this in my team QT. I am glad you noticed.
My stance is that it's not really a dichotomy. Brian would rather lynch shos. I think I would rather lynch Reck, even though the prospect of losing to scum shos fills me with sadness.
In post 3549, xRECKONERx wrote:It's A FUCKING ATTEMPT TO UNDERSTAND YOUR THOUGHTS AND TALK ABOUT IT
No, it's an attempt to whine about there being no reasons you can defend against. Because that's what scum want, cases they can fight against. It annoys them having nothing to defend against. That's your problem.
Lack of case annoys everyone. Also, I don't think Reck's behavior over the last 5 pages is indicative of anything at all.
Is it just me, or does T-Bone disappear every time I start to question him?
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Post #3620 (isolation #457) » Thu May 07, 2015 7:02 am
Postby Cephrir »
In post 3604, Iecerint wrote:Another part of my hesitation is that TierShift is still on V/LA and might say something interesting.
My hesitation is that tiershift is on vla and is probably scum
In post 3605, Iecerint wrote:FWIW IMO Reck's Guy Fawkes masks I think are more consistent with scum wanting to troll a bit on his way out, re: your concern that people would somehow infer town intent in his behavior.
His frustration is obviously real. That just doesn't make it town.