Newbie 1546: Binary Trolls (Game Over!)

[toolenduso]

Hello everybody. I've done a quick read-through and will post ISO-based reads and place a vote...hopefully tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

Spoiler: ISO reads

Carli:

-The lack of a vote after commenting on others' random votes does feel a little bit like scummy hesitation/fluffposting.
-#38 feels gut-weird to me as well, perhaps a little defensive.
-#98 again feels overly cautious to me. The justification for being hesitant/scared/etc of D1 lynching is that we need to take our time when lynching because town players are valuable...now, I'm willing to give a little benefit of the doubt on this one because it takes time to learn all the little nuances of mafia, but it does add to the record of hesitation.
-The end of that same post could be diverting attention as well. It's a very good point, but it does come in the same post Carli is defending herself in.

Dyslexicon:

-I don't get why Dys was talking to him/herself but I'll chalk it up to quirk.
-#79 leans slightly town to me. Looks like trying to move the game forward.
-#85 is similar.

GiF:

-Lots of IC'ing.
-Posts like #43 also show an attempt to move the game forward and root out scum though.
-#119 is one I'd like to bookmark because it's a defense of Carli without much reasoning as to why (the last sentence).
-I'm a little bit confused about the unvote in #137. GiF's vote was on Shiro, who he had just specified was a light townread, but the unvote didn't come until a day later and Shiro wasn't in any danger of being lynched. I'd like to hear from GiF on that one.
-I'm also wary of GiF based on the fact that he's the most experienced player and some of his play looks like it could be scum trying to fulfill the responsibilities of an IC while simultaneously sideline-prodding and trying to get townies to cannibalize on each other. This is more of a gut paranoia than a solid belief.

lolbabe:

-#102 seems like genuine scumhunting, as much as I dislike the argument that two players appear to be tied to each other because they used similar wording.
-I'm wondering why there wasn't a vote attached to #121...

Luca:

-Right off the bat gets into a long theory-based argument about buddying. Won't lie, I skimmed most of it. But this does raise a red flag for me because protracted theory debate is in general a good way to appear as though you're contributing without giving away much information.
-#94 is, however, the third player Luca pushes verbally. This would indicate scumhunting to me. Not foolproof, but it does look towny.

Netherspite:

-I don't hold the same suspicion for Netherspite based on the buddying argument that I do for Luca because I feel like the participation in a theory debate can be explained by lack of experience.
-#62 also doesn't appear to be the way I would expect scum engaging in a theory debate to try to resolve said debate.
-After the debate is over he gets into some more scumhunting.
-#122 looks like genuine scumhunting to me as well.

Shiro:

-#86, she asks if she should have thoughts based on four posts from Carli. For one...well, I mean, I found something to talk about in her first four posts. Two, that's a defensive phrasing. Instead of saying "I don't really have any thoughts on Carli yet" or some iteration of that it was "should I have thoughts after only four posts?" This pings for me.
-#111, Shiro seems to have turned around and is now either suspicious of Carli or is building up to it.

Victor:

-Nothing substantial.

VOTE: Carli

That's L-2.

Questions:

@GiF:

Why the unvote without a revote?

@Shiro:

If you were to vote right now, who would you vote?

@lolbabe:

Are you an alt?

[toolenduso]

Also,

@lolbabe:

why no vote with #121? I get that you said you didn't want to vote without her showing up, but why not?

[toolenduso]

@Shiro:

Any thoughts on this:

-#86, she asks if she should have thoughts based on four posts from Carli. For one...well, I mean, I found something to talk about in her first four posts. Two, that's a defensive phrasing. Instead of saying "I don't really have any thoughts on Carli yet" or some iteration of that it was "should I have thoughts after only four posts?" This pings for me.

[toolenduso]

I want to do some more research and analysis on this game today but one little thing I want to start with is that I definitely don't see Nether and Shiro as partners. I've seen two out of three scum go after each other like this but they tended to be experienced and usually had day chat. Iirc newbies don't usually give day chat to scum.

[toolenduso]

I wonder why some people join the game they ain't interested to play.

ikr ?

Assuming this is directed at me given the timing -- just because I didn't post exactly when I said I was going to doesn't mean I'm not interested in the game.

Also,

If you were to vote right now, who would you vote?

It's tool, not toon. I only bring this up because it's useful sometimes to go back and ctrl + f a person's ISO for mentions of another player.

I'm working on a post now.

[toolenduso]

OK so I looked at two Shiro newbie games: 1532 and 1533. She was scum in both. In 1532 she replaced in later in the game, in 1533 she started from the beginning. For that reason I won't use 1532 as a comparison.

I find some similarities between Shiro in this game and scumShiro in Newbie 1533 that could be more than just playstyle traits. One is this:

No, not necessarily. You neglect the possibility that Csareo might have something against this particular IC.

How can he dislike IC yet be glad one is onboard ? If he was glad an IC was here he wouldn't dislike them. And he was specific to say that voting him had nothing to do with his disdain with IC meaning it was a general felling toward them IC.

He disdain IC yet he is glad one is onboard. It is pretty contradictionary imo

@GiF

How is he throwing it away ? Isn't it better to state it right away instead of when cornered about it ?

When cornered it is far more likely that people will shrug it as BS to escape. If pre stated he can re-direct to here if brought up and none can say anything cause he said so way before the matter arised.

I don't really see it as scummy since it can be townie that doesnt want to be mled cause of it or mafia taking precautions for playstyle, I just don't get how it counts throwing the defence away. It seems more as have the defence premade just in case.

Both of the above quotes are replies to other people talking about specific actions by another player. They both criticize the argument in the form of questions and they both serve to undermine the person's read by guessing at the player's intentions ("If he was glad an IC was here he wouldn't dislike them"/"When cornered it is far more likely that people will shrug it as BS to escape").

More importantly, they both address players that Shiro had no interest in voting. In the quote from 1533, she was criticizing Csareo but never voted him (not in D1 anyway). In the quote from this game she was criticizing GiF's reasoning on Nether and has shown no interest in voting either -- in fact, she's trusting enough of GiF to not vote for Carli because GiF has a townread on Carli.

Scum motivation behind this playstyle would be subtly undermining town players' reads without strongly committing to either side of the argument/chasing any of the players involved and thus putting herself in the spotlight.

Lest anybody take this the wrong way, I don't see this as damning evidence. Since Shiro doesn't have any completed town games we can't compare her townplay to this for a better meta analysis and we thus can't rule out the possibility that this is just something Shiro always does.

Another similarity between scumShiro and Shiro in this game: hesitation to vote/taking a long time to vote.

Another similarity between 1533 and this game: Shiro's belief in policy-lynching lurkers.

A dissimilarity: I can't find any D1 examples in 1533 of Shiro acting defensive like she has in this game. I haven't read in-depth though so I could be wrong about this.

So ultimately the meta comparison does a little bit to confirm my suspicion of Shiro, but it's not enough for me to vote her right now.

I plan on doing Carli next. I'm pretty sure she only has one other completed game, but she's my strongest scumread so I want to see what's there.

[toolenduso]

@GiF: That's one day before deadline and you don't have a vote on anyone right now -- could you tell us who's at the top of your scum list?

[toolenduso]

OK so Carli's meta is really not ideal for forming a read. She's completed one other game (Newbie 1527), in which she was a VT, she replaced in D2 and had exactly eight posts, one of which was "hi, catching up now." So obviously it's not a great basis for meta reading, but every little piece of evidence helps.

Carli hits the ground running in that game, quickly analyzing the game and dropping a vote. Unfortunately this can't be treated as distinct from this game because her scum reads in that game were based on the D1 lynch and in this game Carli didn't have the benefit of looking back at a lynch to look at the wagon. Notably, she pegged one of the scum immediately (That would be 5-off. The other one she scumread, PV, turned out to be town).

Very notably, Carli claims VT in her fourth post (#989). This is done in the midst of her receiving heavy questioning from other players thus looks very similar to her VT claim in #98 in this game:

PeregrineV

1) You're right in saying Iz had 3 people to vote for. Myself, you and 5-Off, but it goes without saying that the both of you (and especially you) were his biggest scum read. I know for a fact that he was wrong about me because I am a VT (yes I just claimed)

Anyway, I didn't have a RVS vote because in all honesty I didn't have a breathing space to do so, as soon as the game started GiF came for me and one by one people started questioning me (not all of course). So all of my posts have been dedicated to answering your questions, I could have started the game with a random vote instead of the intro I chose, but that is not mandatory practice (RVS), and if you want to lynch me because I don't have a random vote which encourages a lollynch then please by all means go ahead and lynch me, and give scum 1 free VT that they don't have to kill in order for them to ultimately win the game.

She doesn't exhibit the same sort of defensiveness under pressure in that game that she does in this game...except when she's responding to the people she had as scumreads. So while that

could

function as evidence that Carli is scum in this game, it's also very possible that townCarli is just in a very different situation here.

I'm starting to doubt my read a little.

[toolenduso]

@MOD Can we get an extension since almost everyone is MIA and we will probably have lots of replacements in a bit ?

Generally speaking, a mod will give a deadline extension if a replacement comes in soon before deadline, but won't necessarily give an extension just because people are inactive or on V/LA.

[toolenduso]

Tool is attractive

Huh. That's a new one.

@tool when making a meta argument, you also have to show me that they don't act the same as town. Since (as you said) you can't do this, I'm wondering why you even bothered? Same with Carli a bit later.

Part of it was because there wasn't a whole lot going on in the game and I was looking to flesh out my reads. Part of it was because I like doing meta to fill out and/or challenge my scumreads. Sometimes I find things that push me into being convinced and sometimes I find things that make me reconsider. In this case, I knew going in that I wouldn't be able to pull a whole lot of meaning out of it, but I figured it was at least something to look at that hadn't already been posted.

@tool when reading Carli's game did you notice if she had a lot of manners? Like did she say "please" and "excuse me" and the like?

Not really, no. Why?

I'm weighing this Shiro vote in my head. It definitely looks weird to me but I don't know why scum would wait until that moment, when it would look more suspicious than ever, to switch their vote to the leading wagon.

[toolenduso]

Also,

@BlueBloodedToffee

, I've read some game with your participation and I loved your signature Totally agree with that, people can manipulate their meta.

Uh...what? What about #195, where you helped fill out my meta analysis?

[toolenduso]

UNVOTE: TGGC

I would like to hear from GiF before we lynch.

[toolenduso]

Because I'm paranoid of GiF and I'm not 100% sold on TGGC being scum. So if TGGC flipped town and we gave scumGiF the benefit of not having to weigh in on the current state of affairs before we hammered, I feel like that would be very bad for town.

[toolenduso]

I know you were asked why you unvoted, but isn't this post counter-intuitive as it could affect the way GIF does respond to this situation (if he is scum) because he will now be aware of your paranoia and intentions behind unvoting?

By giving his opinion on the wagon, scumGiF would be forced to take a stand he doesn't really believe in. This adds to the record of evidence throughout the game. I don't think knowledge of my paranoia of him adds any pressure that isn't already inherent in the situation. Scum, especially when they have as much experience as GiF, are well aware that town are paranoid of them.

There are a couple of others (Victor, Toffee) who haven't weighed in on this either, does that equally bother you, or are you more interested in GIF?

I'm most interested in GiF because I have some standing suspicion of him. Ideally we should know where everyone stands but GiF is a priority for me right now because

if

he's scum and TGGC is town, GiF's in a pretty cozy spot atm. Toffee has a vote on somebody else so that counts as having weighed in on the TGGC wagon imo. Victor should weigh in too though now that you mention it.

In the unlikely event of TGGC flipping Town, would GIF gain towncred based on his contributions so far?

Possibly, yeah. If nothing else it would give Shiro more of a reason to trust GiF's reads because he was right about the Carli/TGGC slot.

You say you aren't completely sold on TGGC being scum, does that mean you are considering pushing another wagon?

I don't have any particular person I'm more interested in lynching right now, but I plan on reviewing some slots tonight and revisiting my reads.

[toolenduso]

I plan on reviewing some slots tonight and revisiting my reads.

This will have to wait until tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

I'm going to approach this with the perspective that the doc claim is probably legit, especially since it came at L-2.

Looking at all the votes on Carli/TGGC, I'm thinking Nether's actually looks the worst. Here's Nether's posting arc:

Spoiler: Selected Nether posts about Carli/TGGC

@Carli

I can't get rid of feeling that your posts are just an attempt to dodge any possible suspicion towards you and are not containing any useful information.
May be it is caused by the complicated wording and my terrible english skills though.

At this point Carli has two votes on her.

Slight suspicion at Carli and Shiro.

Two votes on Carli.

Carli is my second suspect after you. So I'll definitely join the policy lynch in case we won't make another decision till deadline.

Three votes on Carli.

In other words, Carli is "pending" in slight scumread state for me until she posts some more while Shiro is already determined as more strong scumread.

Three votes on Carli.

We shouldn't pretend Carli never did anything scummy but we shouldn't just lynch her without listening to her replacer either.

Three votes on TGGC.

I'm getting unsure in my vote to be honest. Carli was my second suspect and more and more evidences for her scumminess appear.
I also really didn't like how her replacer just jumped into Shiro's wagon. As I wrote, it looked like an attempt to move the focus from him and get another wagon going.
I really don't believe Shiro and Carli can be both scum. It would be too strong play to bus each other so seriously, highly unlikely.
I don't believe there's no scum among them both either. I think I'll re-read the topic tomorrow (since it's 3:25 am here at the moment) to decide who of them is more likely to flip scum.

Three votes on TGGC.

Hmm, it seems that Carli also did all the things I accused Shiro for: not scumhunting and playing defensively.
Also all the weird things others noticed and the fact that TGGC decided to help getting another wagon going asap in his only post in this game...
I think it's a good moment to put TGGC at L-1.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: TGGC

Don't hammer him yet by the way, let him defend himself or claim.

This puts TGGC at four votes.

There is a definite town explanation for this posting arc, but there's also a very believable scum explanation: that Nether kept Carli at arm's length throughout the game hoping that the mislynch would go through without his help and that after TGGC replaced in he either felt that the wagon was in need of some pushing or he saw an opportunity to attach himself to the wagon without arousing too much suspicion.

Part of that is the wording of the post in which he votes TGGC: "Hmm, it seems that Carli also did all the things I accused Shiro for: not scumhunting and playing defensively." It kind of reads like somebody who has decided they are going to move their vote and is looking for an explanation after the fact.

Then there's this:

So you've read every post yet you don't know that Carli already claimed and it was broadly discussed?
Very well. I'm happy with my vote on you then.

Which seems shallow to me and could be scum worried that they look bad because of their vote and trying to shore up their reasoning.

VOTE: Netherspite

[toolenduso]

Victor I don't know if you're done catching up but I'd really like you to vote or at least list some top suspects.

[toolenduso]

One scum is in Tool/Johnny purely because stats say that replacements in Newbie games are most likely to be done by scum.

So I misunderstood what you were saying at first and thought you meant that newbies who replace out in newbie games are more likely to be scum, so I compiled this list:

In Newbie 1375, daemon385, the-duck and kewlben are three newbies who replaced out and were town.
In Newbie 1376, timreeves7 and ravenwing are two newbies who replaced out and were town.
In Newbie 1378, crazzygoat and paradigm are two newbies who replaced out and were town.
In Newbie 1379, slyther, manilai and future are three newbies who replaced out and were town.

...then I saw that what you really said was that any replacement in a newbie game is more likely to be scum. I still think the list I compiled is enough to refute you because it shows that there are obviously lots and lots of exceptions to the rule you're scumhunting by. Also, just to get my list a little closer to what you're talking about: I listed 10 replacements total, and the total number of replacements in those four games was 20 (note: I'm not counting all of the people in 1376 that were replaced before the game started). Of those remaining, some turned out to be scum and some turned out to be town (I didn't include non-newbies who replaced out in my list). That means that less than half of the total replacements in the games I listed were scum, meaning that the majority of replacements were town. If you

really

wanted to, we could analyze the numbers and come up with a replacement rate for scum vs. a replacement rate for town. But my point stands -- there are lots of exceptions to this and therefore it shouldn't be used to determine who you want to lynch.

As to this point:

Most newbie games don't have 4 replacements.

I looked at four games with a total of 20 replacements not counting those who were replaced before the game started. That's an average of five replacements per game.

Bottom line, I think you need to add some more evidence if you want people to take your reads seriously.

I will read up and post some more tonight.

[toolenduso]

Why is Netherspite getting voted?

My reasoning is here.

[toolenduso]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=39739

Check out the replacement stats in this thread.

Hang on now. What those stats say is that scum slots in newbies have at least one replacement 39.8% of the time, while town slots in newbies have at least one replacement 31.9% of the time.

So scum slots are 8% more likely to be replaced -- that's not a very big gap, and I think it's very likely based on those statistics that you could find a game where only town replaced out. As a matter of fact, one of the ones I listed had only town slots replaced.

You need to show why the two slots you're looking at are more likely to be scum slots as opposed to the slots that haven't been replaced.

[toolenduso]

@toolenduso

Mind posting your current full list of reads?

Yeah I can do that tonight.

[toolenduso]

My plan right now is to go back and pick apart the Nether cases (if they're as forgettable as they seem to be) and win those two over to a Shiro lynch and then hope Blue takes his head out of his ass.

My biggest reason for not wanting to lynch Shiro is her vote on TGGC in #215. Give me an explanation for scumShiro doing that.

[toolenduso]

Town:
-TGGC: For the doc claim and the circumstances in which he did it.
-JohnnyFarrar: I didn't feel strongly either way about lolbabe, but I get nothing but towny vibes from Johnny. Posts like #368 and #438 demonstrate a towny mindset and a desire to get town to work together productively.

Null town:
-Luca Blight: I get towny vibes from his posts (he appears to be genuinely scumhunting), but nothing that makes me say "I don't see how this could come from scum." The buddying argument with nether also has potential scumminess behind it, preventing me from making Luca a full town read.
-Shiro: While I agree that Shiro looks scummy through most of her ISO, it's hard for me to see her vote on TGGC coming from scum. It just feels unnecessarily risky and weird for scum to pull.
-BlueBloodedToffee: While his play is definitely anti-town (using statistical theory to proclaim that scum has to be in one of two slots, advocating voting lurkers, not explaining his reads when asked), I don't see this play coming from scum. Usually scum try to look good -- that's how you don't get caught. Doing things that seem like they will deliberately piss people off is not something I think I've seen very many scum do.

Null:
-GuyInFreezer: Still paranoid of this slot by unable to find anything all that incriminating in the ISO.

Null scum:
-VictorDeAngelo: Whether the lurking was intentional or not can never be shown, but I don't like his catch-up attempts. He's analyzing like 3 out of every 5 posts rather than picking out the things he finds most important and generally what he's posting doesn't look like he's trying to catch scum. I agree with Johnny that policy-lynching lurkers gives town nothing to go on the next day, but I think lynching lurkers based on their play does give town something to go on.

Scum:
-Netherspite: If there were another category in between null scum and scum, that's where I would put Netherspite. His play overall gives me towny vibes. And yet I feel like his interactions with Carli could very easily come from scum interacting with town and I think his reasoning for his vote on Carli looks like scum who see an opportunity for a mislynch. See #311 for more detail.

[toolenduso]

My biggest reason for not wanting to lynch Shiro is her vote on TGGC in #215. Give me an explanation for scumShiro doing that.

Because she was being questioned on why she wasn't voting, and probably thought she looked suspicious in not doing so at that stage?

OK, but then she chooses to vote a player she thinks she's putting at L-1? And who has just replaced in? That seems like a pretty conspicuous time to place a vote you've been holding behind your back.

That vote actually did look a bit scummy to me, as it seemed to contradict her earlier reason for not voting that slot. The fact Carli turned from a lurker to being replaced should not have any effect on her read, it was bizarre.

Her reasoning was that it was scummy for Carli to have lurked out under pressure like she did. It's not great reasoning, but it's there. And it holds consistent with Shiro's perspective later in the game when she starts advocating to lynch VDA solely because he's lurking.

[toolenduso]

So basically you consider players town just because they're "too scummy to be scum"?

No. I'm saying that:

-Toffee isn't making an effort to look towny like I would expect scum to do.
-Shiro's vote on TGGC looks like a risky move that I wouldn't expect newbscum to make.

I'm starting to get crazy thought that the scum in my wagon is toolenduso, just because of his reasoning for townreads and

that weird attempt to push townie despite being said that he's wrong.

I do not understand the bolded part. Who's the townie you're referring to? And who said that who is wrong?

[toolenduso]

I don't know, I don't like how she had posted (welcoming the replacements into the game) then Toffee asked why she wasn't voting, and she just basically complied and voted straight away.

I see what you mean, but to her credit there were other people questioning why she wasn't voting before Toffee and TGGC replaced in (#143, #188) and she didn't vote then.

Also to her credit, she said in the previous page (#176) that Carli replacing out would be a red flag for her.

Why hadn't she voted in that initial post if that was her genuine intention when Carli replaced out? She also asked a question to TGGC to explain Carli's actions after her vote, putting him at L-1 before he'd even started. Why didn't she ask him before the vote to try and gauge his reaction?

These are good points, and part of the reason I'm not totally sold on Shiro being town.

You wonder why would scumShiro make that vote, I'm failing to see why TownShiro would.

It makes sense to me in the context of this being Shiro's first game on MS as town. It's weird play but I can easily see it being done in that context.

[toolenduso]

I am that townie and the one who said you that you're wrong is JohnnyFarrar. Read his posts above.

So...you think that I should stop voting for a scumread because other people think I'm wrong about that scumread?

[toolenduso]

I don't explain town-reads.

OK, this is actually starting to bug me. This makes no sense and I feel like you're clinging to an arbitrary rule for no reason other than that it's a rule. Here's your reasoning for not explaining town reads:

Explaining town-reads accomplishes nothing. Anybody can fake a town-read, whereas it's a lot more difficult for scum to fabricate a scum-read. Therefore, I like people to explain their scum-reads rather than me explain a town-read.

OK, so that's a reason not to explain townreads

unless somebody asks you to.

If explaining townreads doesn't accomplish anything, why not just humor the people who are asking you and do it? Is there some downside to explaining townreads I'm not seeing here?

There is a point to explaining townreads, because scum have to fake townreads just as much as they have to fake scumreads -- they have to make townreads look like they're coming from scumhunting and not from actual knowledge of the person's alignment.

[toolenduso]

You didn't refute his arguments so I assumed that you agree with them.

You are going to have a hard time playing mafia if you actually think this is true.

Also, could you point me to the post where Johnny refuted my points against Nether?

[toolenduso]

Nah, it's very easy to fake town-reads. 'X is town because town-vibes from their posting, they look like they're trying to scum-hunt, they're asking lots of questions, gut-read' etc etc. ANYBODY can easily fake a town-read.

It's much more difficult to create a scum-read on someone you KNOW to be town when you're scum.

Tell me what the downside is to explaining why you're townreading somebody.

iirc he quoted your own words that you see a genuine town motivation behind doing what I do but choose to believe more into scum motivation.

Yeah, he quoted it, but he didn't ask me any questions. All he said was "Oh this is easier than I thought" (#439). Was I really supposed to respond to that?

If you see both town and scum motivation behind some actions possible then why choosing one over another?

It's the combination of these things:

-A scum explanation fits well with your play. A town explanation also fits, but then there's...
-The timing of your jump onto the TGGC wagon and your position on that wagon.
-The wording of your post when you voted for TGGC, which made it seem like you were looking for a reason to vote that slot.
-Post #274, in which you say your conviction that the TGGC slot is scum has been strengthened because TGGC, who had just replaced in, wasn't reading carefully.

The explanation for scum Shiro doing that is too push an easy lunch that could've gotten away from her since that slot got replaced

I guess that's possible, but she said before the slot was replaced that if Carli replaced out that it would be a red flag for her. So she, as scum, would have actually been planning to shore up support for the wagon if it was replaced because she was afraid the wagon would get away from her?

[toolenduso]

Spoiler: Meta on Nether

His only completed game is Newbie 1534, in which he was a VT. He replaced in during N1 in a three-day game. Not ideal, but it's all I have to work with.

Unfortunately I feel like literally nothing can be taken from analyzing his posting style between the two games. It's obvious in 1534 that his posting is very heavily colored by the fact that it's his first game on MS. Any differences between the two posting styles can be best explained by that fact. Unfortunately that kind of takes the wind of the meta analysis.

Posting style aside, there is one thing that's a little more concrete I can look at -- Nether's tendency to OMGUS. In 1534 he starts getting pretty suspicious of Malakittens (who he refers to as [9], in case you want to ISO him in that game) as Mala's getting suspicious of him. However, as soon as Mala votes him, he says he finally understands all of her actions which led to his scumread on her. Later in the game, he re-affirms that he is townreading ThirtyFour as soon as ThirtyFour votes him.

The other two people that voted him were Whatisswag and Lincolm. Nether was townreading swag before swag voted him. Nether was scumreading Lincolm before Lincolm voted him. Nether's scumread on Lincolm appears to be at least somewhat based on Lincolm scumreading him, and his scumread of Lincolm continues after Lincolm votes Netherspite. Nether doesn't really mention whatisswag that much after whatisswag votes Nether, so I can assume his townread on swag continued after the fact.

So we have in that game:
-Two people Nether was townreading before and after they voted him.
-One person Nether was scumreading before and after they voted him.
-One person Nether was scumreading before they voted him and townreading after they voted him.

Compare that to this game, where Nether:
-Was townreading me up until I voted him, at which point I dropped to null and now I'm leaning scum.
-Had toffee at leaning scum, but wasn't talking a lot about him, then after toffee vote him he started criticizing him more (see #448).

tl;dr -- It's not a huge amount of evidence and I won't profess to have read Nether's ISO in 1534 in detail (it's even more dense than this one), but that looks to be about the only semi-useful thing I can pull from Nether's one completed game: he appears to be more OMGUSsy/defensive in this one.

Bananas34/Toolenduso

-

Null

,

slightly

leaning scum

if any (because he's too tunneling me without a strong reason)

I'm responding to people questioning my case on you, not tunnelling.

[toolenduso]

Ok it's compromise time (unless one of the inactives magically shows up.

I will be on tomorrow. If it's coming down to the wire, then I'll talk compromise.

I find it concerning that our alleged Doctor has not posted at all since claiming

I can see why a claimed doc would want to be close-lipped headed into the night phase.

[toolenduso]

I will have a look back in the morning through all the reasoning, but I would appreciate a condensed version right here so we know where we stand.

Posts #311 and #603 both summarize my case against Nether. The most important bits are:

1. Nether's vote on TGGC in #267 looks like him pulling out a reason to vote TGGC after he's already made up his mind to vote that slot.
2. His back-up reasoning for his vote in #274 seems shallow and looks like something scum would do to shore up their reasoning for a vote because they're afraid they look bad.

[toolenduso]

Quick thoughts:

-Nether's #724 looks towny to me and is very much like some of his posting in his towngame I meta'd earlier.
-If Nether is town, that makes Shiro look

really

scummy to me.
-VDA's last couple of posts have looked more towny to me.
-I would rather lynch Shiro than VDA.

I'm going to be busy for a few hours but I will be around before deadline, which is in the evening for me. When I get back to my computer I'm going to re-assess Shiro, Nether and VDA. Until then,

UNVOTE: Nether

[toolenduso]

OK I doubt I can even read the pages since I last posted before deadline. Can anybody catch me up and tell me what's happening right now?

[toolenduso]

I would like an explanation for lynching Luca, one for lynching Vic and one for lynching GiF.

None of those three are my top choices but they're all better than no lynching.

Also if anybody is able to do an unofficial votecount that would be helpful.

[toolenduso]

Blue, it seems like you went for Johnny because he didn't want to lynch Luca. That doesn't seem like great reasoning to me.

I'm not sure why Luca was on the table as a lynch option to begin with.

Who would be up for a Shiro lynch?

[toolenduso]

Lynch options:

-Luca has appeared town-ish to me throughout the game. He's OK as a lynch option but only for the reason that I don't feel strongly toward any one player being scum right now.
-Johnny has looked very town to me for a while now and I would not want to lynch him. Him not wanting to lynch Luca doesn't mean they're partners or whatever is being suggested.
-Nether is iffy as a lynch option.
-Victor I'm hesitant to lynch because he would be a very easy target for scum to pick, and...
-That's exactly what Shiro did, to the extent that it looks like scum trying to avoid suspicion.
-Blue is not playing how I would expect scum to play in this situation and I wouldn't really want to lynch him.
-GiF is OK as a lynch option. He's also an easy target for scum, but there hasn't been nearly as much momentum toward lynching him so that makes me feel better about lynching that slot.
-TGGC isn't getting lynched today.

Lynch preferences:

1. Shiro
2. Luca
3. Nether
4. GiF
5. VDA
6. Toffee
7. Johnny
8. TGGC

[toolenduso]

VOTE: Shiro

[toolenduso]

Honestly I didn't really review that list much before I posted it given the pace of the game right now. I consider you #4 or #5 Nether.

[toolenduso]

I really do not want to lynch Johnny today. I seriously don't understand this wagon.

[toolenduso]

Why is this flashwagon better than the one on Shiro?

[toolenduso]

I have Luca and Johnny as likely town, yes.

[toolenduso]

Luca, why did you vote Shiro if you have a gut feeling she's town?

[toolenduso]

Blue, you were pushing for Luca earlier. Would you still be willing to vote Luca?

[toolenduso]

I don't feel like Johnny is going to flip scum. But I also don't really see any other wagon going through right now and I know we're going to start losing people who have to go to bed soon.

intent to hammer Johnny

Johnny, please claim.

[toolenduso]

VOTE: Johnny

If you're town, I'm sorry.

[toolenduso]

Well I

was

going to make a case for lynching Shiro today...

But now VDA is at the top of my scum list. It's partly PoE and partly based on his D1 play. Here we go:

TGGC -- The cop flip lends even more evidence that we are in setup number two (mafia RB, town doc, town cop), which lends even more credibility to TGGC's claim.
Netherspite -- On top of Nether posting a few very towny-looking posts yesterday, his post-lynch posting seals him up as likely town for me. What newbscum would actually stay up that late at night, after a lynch had already been achieved, to "see the flip" when he already knew what the flip was going to be? He would have to be very, very clever for newbscum to deliberately pull something like that.
Blue -- I've already mentioned it, but I just feel like Blue isn't trying to look towny at all. He's not putting on an act like I would expect scum to, and on top of that he could have hopped on a much easier lynch to push toward the end of the day phase yesterday than the ones he was pushing without compromise (Luca at first and then Johnny).
Luca -- Luca generally gave me town vibes during D1. I questioned him a little after his quick jump onto the Shiro flashwagon toward the end of the day phase, but looking back on his behavior during that whole end-of-day period, it fits. Also, Luca's switch from Shiro to VDA in #841 makes no sense to me if Luca is scum. Shiro was at L-1 at the time. Especially knowing that I was going to be online soon and that I had already stated my suspicion of Shiro, why in the hell would scumLuca go from putting Shiro at L-1 to voting for VDA, when there wasn't really pressure on him as a result of his Shiro vote? This looks like town being paranoid and indecisive.
VDA -- Had his vote on Shiro going into the last-minute compromise session at the end of D1. Kept his vote there and didn't contribute much to the discussion. This looks like scum standing on the sidelines and keeping his vote in a safe place. It makes so much sense for scum to act this way in the position we were in at the end of D1.
GiF/Goodmorning -- Lurking is null, but PoE and early vaguely scummy vibes from GiF lead me to put this slot at #2 on my scum list.

By the way, I put together this little chart keeping track of how people's reads throughout the end of D1 compromise session, beginning with my last post (it was in the 700s somewhere I believe) and ending with the end of the day (I kept Johnny off and took Shiro off upon seeing the flip; GiF isn't on there because he didn't participate):

-Luca: Wants to lynch Shiro (#776), would also consider a Blue lynch (#802), switches vote from Shiro (L-1) to VDA (#841) and says Shiro looks more town, re-votes Shiro in #939, says he has no idea who scum is in #963, votes for VDA in #975, votes for Blue in #1006, says he would vote Johnny in #1036, says GiF could be scum in #1054, votes VDA in #1065, votes Shiro in #1093, votes Johnny in #1118, says he has a gut feeling that Shiro is town in #1130
-Blue: Thinks Luca and VDA are scum (#784), has Shiro as biggest townread (#803), Nether, myself and TGGC are townreads but Johnny and GiF are likely scum (#818), switches vote to VDA in #970, votes Luca again in #994, votes Johnny in #1034
-Nether: Thinks Luca is scum (#786), has vote on Shiro but unvotes in #938, has decided to trust Shiro in #962 and now is willing to lynch VDA, says Johnny doesn't look scummy in #990, votes Johnny in #1109
-VDA: Scumreading Shiro and Blue (#877), has vote on Shiro, goes to sleep with vote there

VOTE: Victor

[toolenduso]

By "my last post" I meant my last post before most of the player list got on at once and started trying to compromise toward the end of the day. It was post #770.

[toolenduso]

Also I feel like Shiro being NK'ed might have been because Shiro was pushing VDA for like, most of D1.

[toolenduso]

Tool before Shiro died who was your top scumread(s)?

Shiro. You were up there as well.

It was my fault Shiro got nightkilled.
I asked a number of questions that helped the scum understand that he is the cop, before I realized it myself.
Blue and me were defending him because we realized that he's cop.
Blue did it earlier than me, and thats why he did post insane things and didnt want to explain his townreads.

Well that pretty much flew over my head. I'm going to have to mull this over.

@Tool

- Why assume setup two over column b here?

I'm not assuming, I'm saying that a cop flip lends more credibility to the theory that we're in setup two, and thus adds credibility to TGGC's claim. It's still possible that we're in setup B, yes.

[toolenduso]

I'll just post my thoughts in here really quick and hopefully get into this a little deeper later.

TGGC looks bad right now. This has nothing to do with what is or is not in the role PM -- the foundation of the game of mafia, the whole purpose the game exists, is that scum have more knowledge than town. How can you

not

know that scum would know each other's roles? Especially in a standardized, non-bastard setup like a Newbie? To spell out the argument here, it looks like scumTGGC tried to fake his lack of knowledge about what scum know in an attempt to make it look impossible that he's scum. Then he overdid it and faked not knowing something that even town should know.

Now, to his credit, it appears that this is TGGC's first game since 2011. So it's conceivable he just overlooked this.

But that's not even the scummiest-looking thing about TGGC right now. What's worse is his reaction to the situation. If you're town then why not just admit your mistake once you've realized it? Instead, TGGC starts accusing Nether of being scum (on very shaky grounds) and tries to divert attention away from himself. This is textbook scummy behavior.

Let's say we're in setup B, where the only PR town has is a cop. ScumTGGC gets pushed to the brink of a lynch D1 and says "ah screw it, I'll just out the town PR on my way out and then my partner can at least NK them and be in a better position after I'm gone." That would explain why Carli claimed VT at first, only to have TGGC come into the slot and claim doc later.

All that being said, I feel like it's better not to lynch TGGC today. Best case scenario, we lynch his partner and if he flips RB then we are definitely in a setup with a doc and we've given ourselves another day before LyLo to figure out the second scum. Worst case scenario, we mislynch today and then tomorrow we can massclaim and that will give us more indication as to whether TGGC is lying.

[toolenduso]

Hey, look at this guy saying exactly what Tool has just said only way before he said it.

Cool, huh?

...and?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that TGGC could be town.

Why?

Personally I didn't like how tool first agreed to the arguments against TGGC, added some more and then attempted to get the attention off TGGC for now.

Hey you can talk about TGGC all you want, I just don't have a whole lot more to say about him right now. The whole role PM argument is pretty much eating its own tail at this point imo.

[toolenduso]

@Nether: Post #599 looks like the time you realized that Shiro was cop. Then in posts #708 and #724 you're making a case for Shiro being scum.

Please explain this.

As for the other people who say they realized that Shiro was cop during D1...

Luca voting Shiro when he thought she was cop is weird. But why, if scum, would he admit to seeing that Shiro was the cop knowing that he voted Shiro the day before? Why not just feign innocence? This doesn't change my townread on Luca.

I tend to think that Blue being the first person to acknowledge that Shiro was cop makes him look more towny, but I don't put it outside the reach of scum to do so. This doesn't change my townread on Blue.

So PoE and the stuff I said in #1176 still make VDA my top choice for lynching today.

[toolenduso]

@Nether: all I did was agree that it's best not to lynch TGGC today and then explain my reads so as to show why my lynch preference is VDA. By the way, you were asking me to explain my reads.

So how does any of that look more to you like me trying to get attention off of TGGC than me doing what makes sense in this situation?

I'm saying this because I'm pretty sure you're town and there's still two scum alive, so we need to work together.

@Everyone who wants to lynch TGGC today: Tell me why it's a good idea to lynch TGGC today when we could get more information about his slot through night actions?

[toolenduso]

It was more like a feeling. Also I don't agree about VDA. Is there anything except PoE that makes you think he's scum?

Yes, this:

VDA -- Had his vote on Shiro going into the last-minute compromise session at the end of D1. Kept his vote there and didn't contribute much to the discussion. This looks like scum standing on the sidelines and keeping his vote in a safe place. It makes so much sense for scum to act this way in the position we were in at the end of D1.

Also, his first few catch-up posts did not demonstrate a mentality of seriously trying to find scum. His later catch-up posts did, but that can be explained by the fact that he made them after I had pointed out that I didn't like his first couple of catch-up posts.

Also, how exactly can we get more information about TGGC slot through night actions?

IMO, the best case scenario for town today is this:

-TGGC is actually the doc and we lynch scum today.
-The surviving scum almost certainly kills TGGC because not doing so means they are risking putting themselves farther away from victory either because of a no kill or a doc protect. Then we have an extra day to find the remaining scum.

There's also a possible (though unlikely) auto-win scenario in the cards if we lynch scum today that isn't TGGC. I won't say what it is because the auto-win scenario can only happen if scum make a mistake and I'd rather not say what that mistake is.

The auto-win scenario and the best case scenario both can't happen if we lynch TGGC today.

To avoid a situation like yesterday, I'll lay my cards on the table right now: if it's between TGGC and a no-lynch or if it's between TGGC and somebody I'm strongly townreading at the end of the day, I'll vote for TGGC. But I'd rather lynch Victor today.

[toolenduso]

blah blah stalling not alignment-indicative blah blah one month blah VT blah Shadows and Lights.

GM did you just claim?

How are people not seeing GM scum.

I can see it, but why is GM a better lynch than VDA?

[toolenduso]

Because VDA is town.

When did you start townreading VDA and why?

In the very unlikely case TGGC is the real Doc, there also should be a Mafia Roleblocker and thus scum does not really need to kill the Doc to avoid no-kills.

You're right. I thought RB couldn't perform the kill and also do an RB in one night, but:

The Mafia Roleblocker is allowed to both submit the nightkill and perform his Roleblocker action.

Also,

I'd rather go for 99% scum lynch for today that would give us another 2 attempts to find the remaining scum.

What makes you 99% sure about TGGC? What doubt exists in your mind and why is it so small? Basically I'd just like you to lay out your read on him.

Would you be willing to lynch VDA?

[toolenduso]

@toolenduso

You gotta be kidding me guys. Again the same mistake.

You were a Mafia Goon in Newbie 1450. Your partner was a Mafia Roleblocker.
After you have been lynched, your partner was submitting both roleblock and kill at nights.
And you claim you didn't know it's possible? Come on!

Scum team is TGGC + toolenduso

Yeah, you're right. I saw how well it worked out for my buddy so I thought I would give it a try to get some towncred.

That, or I forgot whether RB could perform a night kill and a block in the same night because that's not always true depending on which setup you're playing.

@Tool -

You ask Nether to lay out his read of TGGC (even though it is pretty evident if you've been following the thread), could you do the same with your Victor read?

Here is a summary for you:

Spoiler: If anybody else asks me to explain my read on Victor, I'm just going to point them to this post (unless he does something else scummy)

VDA -- Had his vote on Shiro going into the last-minute compromise session at the end of D1. Kept his vote there and didn't contribute much to the discussion. This looks like scum standing on the sidelines and keeping his vote in a safe place. It makes so much sense for scum to act this way in the position we were in at the end of D1.

PoE

Also, his first few catch-up posts did not demonstrate a mentality of seriously trying to find scum. His later catch-up posts did, but that can be explained by the fact that he made them after I had pointed out that I didn't like his first couple of catch-up posts.

[toolenduso]

Tool trying to subtly push Victor's lynch doesn't sit right either.

LOL this is actually me being more aggressive in pushing a lynch than I usually am. What's subtle about it?

[toolenduso]

That's why I said "You gotta be kidding me"

And yet it's enough for you to say, without hesitation, that I am scum with TGGC?

Regarding your case on VDA, it's kinda weak.
Keeping his vote on Shiro when he had to go to sleep? I don't see it any scummy as Shiro was top suspect at this point.

OK, but look at the rest of VDA's activity during that end-of-day compromise session (post #658-929, ISO numbers 22-42). His primary concern is defending himself. Unlike most of the rest of the players, he doesn't really show signs of trying to find scum or rally town around a lynch he thinks is correct -- which is the whole point of having an end-of-day compromise session. It's like he's there so his name is on the attendance record but he's not interested in town's goal of lynching scum.

At one point (#896) he shows signs of being willing to compromise with town on a Luca lynch. The context of this post is important: earlier in that same page (#879), he resists BBT telling him to vote for Luca.

Shiro looked like the leading candidate for a lynch throughout much of yesterday. It was a safe place for scumVDA to keep his vote headed into deadline because it's not one that a ton of people would question it. If the Shiro lynch went through -- cool, scum got a mislynch. If not -- well then VDA wouldn't have too hard a time defending why he kept his vote on Shiro the next day.

I put myself in the shoes of scum headed into the end-of-day compromise session yesterday and I find VDA's position to be the most favorable: out of the spotlight, contributing to a possible mislynch and subverting town's efforts to lynch scum.

There's also his first couple catch-up posts yesterday.

@Tool

- I definitely haven't got any feel of aggression off your posting. If your trying to be more aggressive why don't put me under some pressure?

My vote is on you and I have been actively trying to get other people to vote you as well (see posts 1328, 1357, 1359, 1380 and 1385). I'm actively campaigning to put you in the noose, whereas usually I prefer to lay out my cases and let them speak for themselves.

The reason for my approach right now is that town needs some direction and I would prefer that it not come from BBT because he exhibits certainty of his reads on shaky grounds and that's exactly the reason Johnny got lynched yesterday.

[toolenduso]

Well I'm not going to pretend like Shiro would have been a good lynch. But are you really going to tell me that Johnny was a good lynch?

Johnny looked obviously town, your certainty of him being scum was based on reasons that did not warrant certainty and we should not have lynched him. I only did so in order to avoid no-lynching.

Today you are exhibiting the same amount of certainty for equally shallow reasons.

Now tell me why you're townreading VDA.

[toolenduso]

You're misinterpreting his post #896. It was the answer to Luca's offer to lynch BBT, and BBT was his main suspect at this point. So no contradiction here.

So I am. In that case, my point about VDA not contributing much to the discussion stands.

He put his vote on the top suspect among majority to make sure it's not a No Lynch.

I don't see anything wrong here.

Do you not see the scum explanation here or do you not believe it?

The scum explanation is that VDA was clinging to the safest wagon so as to minimize risk and maximize benefit for scum. Which makes a lot of sense for scum to do in that situation.

[toolenduso]

VDA is town because I said so.

I thought your whole "I don't explain townreads" thing was because you were trying to not give away that Shiro was cop...?

If you're not going to explain your reads, could you at least tell me what's wrong about my case?

[toolenduso]

@VDA: In order to get people to vote you, I first have to demonstrate why you're a better lynch than the people they're currently voting.

[toolenduso]

Firstly, you're flat out making assumptions on why VDA left his vote on Shiro.

I would contend that assumptions are the basis of forming a read. You look at a player's behavior and come up with a town explanation for it and a scum explanation for it, and then you choose which one you think is a better explanation for the behavior. The explanations are themselves assumptions of why the player engaged in that behavior.

You're scumreading GM because she's stalling right? Aren't you assuming that she's stalling for a scummy reason and not because she's been busy?

Secondly, you're acting like it's a scum-tell that VDA didn't want to stay awake until x o' clock to see out the day.

I don't believe I've ever said that it was scummy that VDA didn't stay awake. What I find scummy is the convenient placement of his vote. The rest of his posting toward the end of D1 supports the scumminess of that position.

[toolenduso]

I must not be explaining my case very well because it seems like a lot of the arguments against it are based on misunderstandings of what I'm saying.

I will work on forming a better, more clear explanation and then post that hopefully today or tomorrow. Then I will answer all the questions in #1400-1408.

[toolenduso]

OK, my case against VDA:

Spoiler: 1. VDA lurked out discussion at the beginning of D1

Evidence: From Oct. 15-30, VDA had five posts. None of them had anything to say about the game.

Why this is scummy: It's hard for scum to make early-game interactions seem genuine. It's much easier to wait until momentum builds and then attach yourself to something.

Scumminess level: Relatively low. Lurking can be done by either alignment. In this case, however, it adds to the record of VDA trying to avoid attention.

Spoiler: 2. His early catch-up posts did not demonstrate a scum-hunting mentality

Evidence:

Some

of the catch-up posting goes into people's actions and whether they're scum. Bits like these for instance:

98 - Yeah another attempt by Carli to get everyone to see her side and then a nice deflection onto the lurkers. Which means Carli probably doesn't have a scumbuddy amoung the lurkers.

145 - Shiro is really keen to get people talking about how there's no mafia on the Carli wagon. So if Shiro is scum then her buddy is probably on the Carli wagon. Or am I just drinking too much wine? Hmmm.

However, it was full of fluff like this:

Spoiler: Once upon a time, a long time ago

28 - Netherspite says "Hello Town" in his opening post and he has a Hearthstone avatar. There's your first scum right there.

38 - If this is a wall of text then this game is going to be casual reading option.

117 - See told you I'd read up at some point. I'm as good as my word.

143 - Damn right Nether.

168 - Closer and close are not quite the same thing but nice try.

Why this is scummy: Because everybody in the game was making it clear how much they wanted VDA to get in and start participating, and here he was dragging his feet and extending out his catch-up posts by pointing things out that didn't make any difference. This is a form of activelurking -- posting and giving "thoughts" on the game without really contributing to town. The scum explanation is that, intentionally or unintentionally, scum do not have the same goals as town and thus don't have a reason to hunt around and try to figure things out. So they hem and haw and poke around at stuff without opening themselves up and thrusting themselves into the spotlight.

Scumminess level: Fairly scummy. I'll give him credit for having

some

scumhunting in the catch-up posts, but then I doubt scum would be so obvious as to make their catch-up posts 100% fluff.

Spoiler: 3. Shiro was the best wagon for scum to hide on toward the end of D1

Evidence: VDA put his vote on Shiro in #531. At the time he was putting Shiro at L-2. The other leading wagon was Nether, which was also at L-2. The vote was made on Nov. 1, one day before deadline.

Why this is scummy: The position itself is scummy. L-2 doesn't draw a ton of attention, not like L-1 does, but it still allows scum to push a mislynch and it still allows them to capitalize off the mistake of whatever townie started the wagon. Further, by the time VDA went to bed (and just to be absolutely clear here, I'm not saying that the action of going to bed was scummy), Shiro was still at L-2 and was the leading wagon. If I were scum and about to go to bed hours before deadline, still not sure of who the lynch was going to be, I would want my vote to be on Shiro at this point.

Scumminess level: Fairly scummy. Yes, it makes sense for VDA to keep his vote on his scumread. But I also refuse to believe that there was zero scum trying to get Shiro lynched at this point, and VDA's vote is the scummiest among them (the other two were Johnny, now confirmed town, and Nether, who is most likely town and was also the first vote on the Shiro wagon).

Spoiler: 4. He didn't demonstrate a scum-lynching mentality toward the end of D1

Evidence: VDA's posts #658-929 (ISO numbers 22-42) do not contain a whole lot of trying to get people lynched. Again, it's a lot of this sort of thing:

Player calls guy he is townreading, town. Stop the presses.

Anyone else get the feel that BlueBloodedToffee is dicking around to try a no lynch?

Assuming you don't try to kill me off tonight then you should expect a vote coming from tomorrow. Just saying.

Says the girl at L-2.

Anything that approaches scumhunting/trying to convince people to lynch his top scumread (Shiro):

The reasoning is what exactly? I found your play scummy and said as much. And then I voted for you. This just looks like an attempt to keep yourself off the Nether wagon as long as possible so you can turn around tomorrow and say "sucks Nether was town, you guys should have listened to me and voted Victor".

Oh and according to 669 it's PoE as well. Because that always works out well on Day 1.

Unless you can justify how TGGC/GiF, GiF/Luca or Luca/TGGC teams are not possible.

Let's be frank, your whole problem is that during my catchup you didn't like that I called you scummy for doing scummy things and then you didn't like that I voted you. That about sum up the case.

Well the PoE is a terrible reason as I already stated. Your essentially saying that all other players are going to be town. I can't really put into words how bad a reason to lynch it is.

Also what happened between this post and whichever post you started townreading Luca to make you think he was town?

...is pretty much VDA defending himself.

Why this is scummy: Because this doesn't look like town trying to get scum lynched. It looks like scum showing up and participating in the discussion enough to make sure they don't get lynched and arguing with the player pushing them.

Scumminess level: High.

To recap: Since the beginning of the game, VDA has not really demonstrated a strong scumhunting mentality. He has demonstrated a mentality of trying to avoid suspicion and not get lynched.

Spoiler: Answers to misunderstandings/questions about my case from earlier

Point 3) It can be hard to make catch-up posts with real content. You criticise him for it, and then when he produces better posts in future, you use this as a stick to beat him with? Bit of a lose-lose situation you put him in there.

I wasn't saying that him making better posts after I criticized his catch-up posts was a bad thing. I was saying we can't really use his later catch-up posts as evidence to draw a conclusion about his alignment because if he's scum, he had the benefit of knowing why I thought his first couple of catch-up posts were scummy.

If Victor is scum, who is his partner?

GM or TGGC, by process of elimination. TGGC looks worse to me between the two, but I have no associatives linking him with VDA.

I was voting Shiro too at that point. So did 2 more players. Are we all 4 scum?

No. I'm saying his vote looks the worst of the votes on Shiro, not that his vote alone makes him scum.

You know, you can find it scummy whatever his vote-before-leaving would be.
Voting the most suspected person? Fine! "Putting his vote in convenient place"
Voting someone else? Fine! "Tries to distance himself from mislynching the Cop"
You of course can say that you wouldn't call it scummy if he voted someone else and I'm making it up.
But my point is not that. My point is

regardless

of his last vote before he left his vote

could be called scummy

. So basically it's not an evidence for anything.

His vote before he left is not alignment-indicative

.

Again, it's not just where he had his vote. It's where he had his vote, plus his attitude surrounding that vote. Also, just because you can think up a hypothetical reason for why somebody else could call a hypothetical scenario scummy doesn't mean that what actually transpired isn't scummy.

In the context of yesterday's lynch, with anyone being willing to vote for pretty much anyone, this argument of clinging to the 'safest wagon' doesn't wash.

And yet that's like the entire reason Johnny was lynched -- Blue thought he was trying to play it safe by attacking a player who had just "gone to sleep."

Spoiler: Answers to other questions/comments

Sorry, but if he's was 'obviously town' why hammer? Peer pressure, or what?

Even though I was willing to lynch just about anyone at one point yesterday, I wouldn't lynch anyone I thought was 'obviously town'. I also don't remember you putting up much of a fight to save your obv town read. I actually read Farrar as Town myself, but not enough to justify a no-lynch.

Because while I was pretty sure, I could have been wrong. And lynching D1 is almost always better than no-lynching D1.

I did put up a fight. I tried to get Shiro lynched, then I tried to get you lynched, then I realized that the only possible lynch was Johnny, largely because Blue's unwarranted certainty meant that he wouldn't compromise.

Also -- if you wouldn't lynch anyone you thought was obvious town, why did you offer to vote yourself?

Wouldn't showing people how I was scummier than all other players acheive that?

I've also been doing that, and I did so before this post as well.

Was there a point to asking this question?

[toolenduso]

@TGGC: Who is Nether's partner?

[toolenduso]

Just to clear this up because everybody seems to be misunderstanding what I've been doing the entirety of D2 -- I see TGGC as being likely scum and have publicly said as much ever since post #1288.

I've been pushing my top suspect, VDA, because he's my top suspect. At no point was I trying to get people to townread TGGC or prevent him from getting lynched

at some point

. Rather, I was trying to get VDA lynched today instead...because he's my top suspect and has been since Shiro died.

And after hearing the arguments against leaving the TGGC lynch for tomorrow I no longer see a problem with lynching him today. I'm not going to hammer without GM catching up and VDA is still my top suspect, although especially with Luca getting back on the TGGC wagon I have a hard time believing a VDA lynch could go through.

Also,

You also ask TGGC a question that looks like an attempt to move his vote to VDA and get him lynched thus leaving both you and TGGC alive.

You are really starting to let confirmation bias sink into your posting, Nether. Can you really not see the real reason I asked this question?

[toolenduso]

I'm fine with hammering TGGC but if GM really is intentionally stalling then hammering is letting her succeed. Either way I feel like it's better to just force her to catch up, especially given the possibility that TGGC flips town and tomorrow is LyLo.

[toolenduso]

His entire play during D2 was full of subtle attempts of moving the spotlight from the TGGC.

It was full of obvious attempts to get people to lynch VDA, yes. Quite obvious. Intentionally obvious. Admittedly obvious, even.

GM can catch up over night, just hammer please.

Yeah OK.

VOTE: TGGC

[toolenduso]

I'm sick of this day, Luca makes a good point about GM's catch up and I want to see the flip.

[toolenduso]

I’m in a meeting right now, so this post – which I wrote over the night phase – is the only one I’m going to be able to make for several hours. I obviously removed Nether from my reads list.

So, I'd just like to throw this out there. If you guys want to lynch scum today, good. We can work together and lynch scum.

However, I don't really expect that to happen. TGGC's flip probably reinforces the beliefs many already had that I am TGGC's partner. If I survive today and we lynch town, I will be a liability in LyLo because town will still suspect me as TGGC's partner and scum will be able to use that to their advantage.

Also, we've earned an extra mislynch by lynching scum.

So my proposal is basically this. If the majority of the player list excluding me thinks that I'm scum, you should just go ahead and lynch me so I'm not there as an easy mislynch in LyLo.

That being said, I'm not going to vote myself because I don't believe you should ever do that as town.

Here are my thoughts on who we should lynch today if it's not me:

Luca: I have Luca as a townread. His play style looks scummy (easily switching reads based on other player's arguments mainly), but he has done a few things that make him seem very town to me. One is Luca's switch from Shiro to VDA in post #841. Shiro was at L-1 at the time and I see no reason for scum to do this. Another is post #1466, in which Luca asks me to hammer because GM can just catch up overnight. This strikes me as towny because, A) Wouldn't scum rather try to look towny by gallantly jumping on to be the voice of reason and say we should wait until the lurker's posted?, B) Scum would already know what TGGC is going to flip so they wouldn't be so anxious to see the flip, and C) The main reason Luca gave for wanting to see the flip was so that he could form reads. This is a towny mentality -- one not too hard to fake, but nonetheless strikes me as being genuine. It just looks like a townie who has run out of things to consider and needs more evidence to influence reads.

VDA: VDA was the first reason to vote TGGC on D2 (post #1227), and for good reason. I just don't see scum in this position with their partner. My previous case on VDA was based on inferences from his posts; voting pattern trumps that as evidence. VDA is most probably town.

Blue: BBT has bad, bad, bad interactions with the Carli/TGGC slot. Posts #223, #230 and #326 are defenses of Carli after she replaced out, with 326 being the most damning piece of evidence because Toffee is defending the discrepancy between Carli's VT claim and TGGC's doc claim without really saying why. #1216 is BBT pushing for us to lynch somebody else besides TGGC, which makes sense from a scumbuddy perspective because it puts town in LyLo the next day. Obviously I did this as well, so it's not the greatest piece of evidence, but it adds to the record. In #1293, Blue says he's ready to vote TGGC. Then in #1302 he says TGGC could be town and goes back to saying we should lynch somebody else. In #1326, he's "ready to lynch TGGC already" and then in #1331 he votes GM. He finally hops on the TGGC wagon in #1414. To summarize, Blue defended the TGGC slot early and often, then waivered just enough to cast doubt on a connection between him and the scum partner he was sure was going to get lynched. Again, my read on Blue was mostly based on inferences from posting before and voting/interaction patterns surrounding scum trump that as evidence. As for Dyslexicon's vote on Carli, I see no reason why that couldn't be scum bussing without serious intent to lynch.

GiF/goodmorning: Early pushing of Carli looks more like it has to do with GiF fulfilling his IC responsibilities than it does like scum interacting with scum or town interacting with scum. Defending of Carli/TGGC slot begins in #43 with GiF saying that it didn't look to him like Carli was buddying. Post #110 is a defense of Carli's VT claim. #119 is a defense of Carli's "survivalistic" attitude. That's it until GM replaces in. #1374 gives GM's thoughts on the TGGC slot, which don't amount to much of a clear stance and could come from either scum or town. Shies away from getting in on the TGGC suspicion in #1379. Gives an indication she might go for Nether instead in #1456. Overall, GM was pretty noncommital about TGGC and the wagon against him. Now, this can be somewhat explained by the fact that GM never caught up fully, but we do know that GM saw the thing about TGGC "not understanding" that scum would know each other's roles and decided that that wasn't scummy.

Carli/TGGC: I don't see anything from Carli's or TGGC's interactions with any of the surviving players that really have meaning.

I like Blue for lynching today.

VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

[toolenduso]

Why GM, Luca? What do you think of Blue?

[toolenduso]

I wrote it for exactly the reasons I laid out in the post. I'm actually pretty surprised by how little people seem to want to lynch me right now because I feel like most people were suspecting me at the end of the last day and most of the reason for that was based on a suspicion that I was TGGC's partner. AfterTGGC flipped scum I figured that suspicion would only increase.

I said that I didn't expect town to lynch scum today because I expected to be lynched today.

Why did your read on me change to town after the flip?

[toolenduso]

I don't think there was as much suspicion on you as you're making out. I suspected you a little at one point, but then considered GM's weird play and the case against Toffee and thought I could rule you out as probably town, now I'm not so sure.

I do not see the post in your ISO where you stopped scumreading me before D3. Here's what I saw going into the night:

-The surviving scum almost certainly kills TGGC because not doing so means they are risking putting themselves farther away from victory either because of a no kill or a doc protect. Then we have an extra day to find the remaining scum.

something something RB something if he isn't Doc then you might something something potential scumslip

I find this summing up of my catchup really scummy.

Just reflecting on it now, I am going to narrow it down to Tool/GM being TGGC's scum partner.

Gut feeling is saying Tool at the moment

2. If TGGC will flip scum, we'll have 5 players tomorrow, 1 of them will be scum and 4 townies. So we'll basically have 2 attempts to find the scum.
I ask you to start with tool. I'm really sure he's TGGC's partner. His entire play during D2 was full of subtle attempts of moving the spotlight from the TGGC. And when TGGC will flip scum, there is really high chance tool will be scum too.

Why

wouldn't

I think I was getting lynched coming into today?

[toolenduso]

There is some reason for you to think that, fair enough, but given how dodgy GM and Toffee look I don't see why you would be as convinced as you were for being lynched, that you felt the need to pre-prepare the stuff about being a liability at lylo, and that we should lynch you now if we're still unsure etc.

Well to be honest I haven't had a whole lot of faith in this town since the end of D1.

When there are other clear options for the lynch, why, as a townie, would you offer yourself up at this stage? There is clearly as much doubt surrounding the other two I have mentioned, meaning they would also be as much a liability in lylo for the same reasons.

Because I felt like I was the top suspect, not GM or Blue, and that it would be super easy for scum to push a mislynch on me if I made it through today and we went to LyLo.

And they're only going to be "liabilities" if they're town, which I strongly suspect is not the case for both.

[toolenduso]

While we're waiting: Victor, I'm not sure why you don't want to say anything before GM posts, but could you at least say if there's anyone you're unwilling to lynch today?

[toolenduso]

GM, what's the potential scumslip you're talking about?

Also, we did play a game together: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=34780

[toolenduso]

OK, so what was the scumslip?

[toolenduso]

Welp. Hope you're right!

[toolenduso]

So you're Town, then?

I didn't see her saying she's town. And I kind of feel like she would have said so if she was town.

[toolenduso]

Yayyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!

So my reads were good at the beginning of the game before becoming like 100% inaccurate haha.

I'll probably post more thoughts like tonight or tomorrow, but I'd like to say one thing for now: Luca, you were kind of right -- I was trying to play mind games, but with scum. I was pretty sure I was going to get lynched and wanted to draw scum into doing something scummy so that town could lynch them easily in LyLo.

[toolenduso]

Dead/mafia PTs?

[toolenduso]

In case anybody is interested in my thoughts/advice:

Spoiler: Thoughts

Self-assessment: I didn't put in as much effort with this game as I usually like to. Not sure why. I feel like that led to my cases not getting across as clearly as I like them to/not being as developed as I wanted them to be. I kept second-guessing myself and I kind of wished I had just pushed for somebody but Johnny to get lynched D1. It wouldn't have been Shiro because she would have claimed, but I seriously just didn't understand the Johnny lynch. Oh well, it turned out fine anyway.

TGGC: Don't sweat it. As I demonstrated later in the game, it's not too hard to make a mistake like that (thinking that town shouldn't know that scum would know their partner's role). And in your position I might have made that doc claims too. If I were to offer you advice, it's this: If you're clearly wrong about something when you're scum, it's often better to just admit that you made a mistake. A good part of the reason I started scumreading you was because it looked suspicious to me that you wouldn't back down from what you'd said.

GM: I guess I don't have much to say. You replaced into kind of a bad situation, but the amount of time it took for you to catch up didn't help. I was about ready to lynch you for two reasons -- 1) If the scumslip you were going to try to point out in my post is what I thought it was, I think that would have actually amounted to you making a scumslip; and 2) That last catch-up post you made looked like something you just pulled out of nowhere, and at that point it looked to me like scum who were pretty sure they were going to lose and didn't feel like putting in a ton of effort.

Nether: What can I say, you did a good job with getting TGGC lynched. However, I really don't understand why you ended up scumreading me. It seemed to me like you got really excited about lynching scum and latched onto the first thing you thought was scummy and just didn't let go. I think you tended to approach some of your reads with an "OMGUS" mentality, and by that I don't necessarily mean that you scumread people who were scumreading you -- although that did happen some. What I mean is that you tended to ignore or discredit arguments by people you suspected. And that pattern of thinking makes it less likely for you to reconsider a scumread you have, even when that scumread is on a townie.

Johnny: Sorry. Curious to hear your thoughts on whether compromise lynching you was the right move.

Shiro: Sorry I missed your hints and tried to lynch you. One thing I will say is this -- IMO, it's better for cop to softclaim by making a three-sentence post D1 where the first letters of the sentences are C, O and P or something like that. Hinting to the point where other players were able to pick it up is the reason you died and weren't able to get town an investigation result.

Blue: I'm still not sure if you really believe that you shouldn't explain townreads. But if you really believe that, please for the love of God stop believing it. It made sense with you not wanting to reveal that Shiro was cop, but the reasoning behind your reads is valuable for town to see.

Luca: Don't have much to say. Overall you came across as town pretty effectively and you helped lynch scum. Good job.

Victor: Sorry I went after you so hard D2. I was pretty much convinced you were scum. I don't have much else to say.

[toolenduso]

Most things Nether said in the dead PT I think are answered by him knowing now that I'm town. But one thing kind of bothers me, Nether, and I want you to understand why it's wrong.

TGGC's slip was a slip because he

pretended not to know something that everybody should know

.

Mine was not a slip because

I forgot something from my past that is different from game to game and thus could have been true from my point of view

.

Ultimately it comes back to the bias though. I believe that if you had listened seriously to what I was saying you might have noticed that.

[toolenduso]

Also, Bulba, I thought you did a great job modding. I don't really have feedback for you.

[toolenduso]

@tool: No, your slip was that you looked like you were assuming one gamestate over another.

Do you mean when I "assumed" that there was a scum RB? Because that only could have been misconstrued as a "slip" before TGGC's flip. After his flip there was pretty much no chance in hell we were in a setup with a doctor/scum RB. That's why I kept trying to get you to say what my slip was -- if you had tried to push that as a scumslip even after TGGC flipped goon, it would have looked like you forgetting that town-you should have, at that point, been certain that there was no RB.