Newbie 1667: Bushfire! (Game Over)

[goodmorning]

Hello all, I am your lovely IC. I am expected to help you learn to play the game, particularly in the context of this forum. Towards the pursuit of that goal, I will answer all your theory questions truthfully.

That's right,

I will not lie to you

about theory.

Now, you may be thinking "no fair, she's got more experience, clearly she will pwn newbs". That's only somewhat true. Some newbies have played many a game of Mafia elsewhere. Besides this, experience counts against me as well: you all are able to look up my past games and see how I've played in them. I can't because most of you don't have any. So it's a fairly even split.

Some helpful Wiki pages:
Quick Guide to Mafia
Quick Guide to Mafiascum
A Beginner's Guide to Being Awesome At Mafia

And some terms:
Glossary
Commonly Used Abbreviations

I also want to get this out now so as not to interrupt gameplay later:

HELPFUL TAG TIME

Code: Select all

[post]0[/post]

will look like
0
and link you to that post.

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[url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=63646]Newbie 1656[/url]

will look like
Newbie 1656
And link you to that url (this one is this game).

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[spoiler]OH NO WHAT IS HAPPENING[/spoiler]

will look like

OH NO WHAT IS HAPPENING

(highlight to read).

The code for a big spoiler is this:

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[spoiler=A SPOILER??]IT IS[/spoiler]

which looks like

Spoiler: A SPOILER??

IT IS

Some mods are fine with spoilering of REALLY BIG WALLS O' TEXT. Some are not. If in doubt, try to ask the Mod before you post.

/IC wall

[goodmorning]

Now.

Vote: vettrock

Hi!

[goodmorning]

Ahahaha oh dear

i forgot to edit the links and post tags to reflect the current game

oh well

[goodmorning]

It's more a what-not-to-do example than a what-to-do one; I agree with you that those kinds of spoilers certainly affect readability. (but no, i just forgot actually)

@ai: oh god that game was awful

--
I already have my eye on someone.

[goodmorning]

Yo, sorry I'm late, busy day yesterday.

Down to business then.

Vote: goodmorning

ICs can be tricky to deal with, and we must carefully balance the desire for their help with caution of their sneaky Mafia ways.

not sure if real or reading.

--
PC! I didn't recognise your name for some reason!

Anyone know how to turn the shadows on the text off? I find them pretty annoying.

I didn't realise there were any. Try a different skin?

What CheeryDog said!

[goodmorning]

Yo, sorry I'm late, busy day yesterday.

Down to business then.

Vote: goodmorning

ICs can be tricky to deal with, and we must carefully balance the desire for their help with caution of their sneaky Mafia ways.

not sure if real or reading.

Both. Obviously, I'm not trying to lynch you straight out of RVS, but I didn't expect anyone else to even consider voting the IC, especially since you started out so friendly and helpful. Which is what you're supposed to do as IC, of course, but the point remains that your potential for scum cannot be ignored.

I meant that I wasn't sure if you were being genuinely suspicious or if you'd read past games in which early Newbie suspicion of the IC equals townpoints.

But yes.

Aren't we all potentially scum? Accusing the IC could be a scummy move because lynching the IC removes support, letting scum work unimpeded.

An interesting counter.

VOTE: PC

Hi.

From what I understand, and

@goodmorning

please correct me if I'm wrong, the RVS is for judging reactions and making very rudimentary reads on folks. The idea of the votes is to see how people react to them, no?

Why then, would you vote for yourself, even in the RVS, unless you just wanted to blend in without actually generating any of these reactions that could lead us closer to..............

THE MAFIA!

VOTE: PhantomCobalt

This is kind of weird timing maybe?

[goodmorning]

Weird timing? How so?

You seemed like you wanted to pressure me but switched vote before I really responded.

And no, I wasn't aware that had ever happened. Most of what I know is from a couple of off-site games, and the wiki.

The wiki says that people trying to get the IC out of the way too early may be scummy, as MortFeld had said.

And then of those off-site games, one was a Newbie game, and I'm afraid the ICs( There were two ) really did not do their job, voiding that reasoning.

I'd assumed the RVS was a good time to make sure you weren't just being overlooked, without accidentally starting a wagon or anything like that.

Well, I can't quite take your word 100%, but that's helpful to hear.

It certainly was a good time to do just that, though I seem to make myself a controversy magnet anyway.

--
oh pc you card

[goodmorning]

Can you elabourate a little on why you read PC this way?

[goodmorning]

@goodmorning #12
Sry to bring that up :p
what do you mean by awful?
Actually i've read that game even before we know we will be playing on the same game for a reference
The way you play in which i can't follow you, makes me develop certain level of wariness of you.

I played pretty badly in that game, is all. That may be why you couldn't follow me there as well.

--
@Rat: I like it. Let's go further: What was similar and what was different between his reaction and mine? What does it make you think about me? Does it change what you think about PC or make it stronger?

[goodmorning]

Well, it's possible it might have been a real reaction test that he was hoping more people would see before he had to explain it.

I think your gamestate analysis in itself is pretty solid, though I think you may underestimate the efficacy of townbloc-ing.

[goodmorning]

I really dislike self-voting. In most situations, I consider self-voting to be a scum-claim. In my opinion the only reason to do it as town, is so when you do it as scum, it doesn't look as out of place.

What reason would anyone have to selfvote as Scum that wouldn't also apply to Town (other than the selfhammer rule which renders the point moot)?

In board preferences in the UPC you can change the board style to MafSefia or MafSilver, it will change the background as well, but the shadows only exist on MafBlack

It's a shame there's no dark themes without shadows on the font.

I'm sure if you coded one it would be added.

I already have my eye on someone.

Care to share?
I really dislike ambiguous posts like these (are you attemping to provoke a reaction from someone?). I seem to remember reading a game where you did a similar thing and were town however, so maybe your playstyle is just different to what I'm used to.

I do similar things a lot during this part of D1.
I'll give you a hint: It is one of the people who had already posted when I said that.

[goodmorning]

Well, if people guess who it is that tells me more about them than their reaction to me just saying it. Other reasons too, but they lose efficacy if I say them right now, so that'll be later.

[goodmorning]

I do not like that Sam I Am

Letting us guess provides a scum you with the opportunity to LOOK LIKE you started a wagon, while letting us do the heavy lifting.

For example, if shrike and MortFeld guessed you were talking about me, you could say they're correct, and start moving toward my lynch.

You could do the same with any combination of people, and it's an easy, guilt-free mislynch.

I could, but I won't. My scumplay is better than that anyway.

Just keeping an eye on someone isn't the same as wanting them lynched or even thinking they're Scum.

FTR, as of the time I'm making this post, I no longer have my eye on them.

I continue to find voting for yourself in Newbie games are the fastest way to get out of RVS.

It's also the fastest way to lose some credibility.
But that's none of my business.

@Mort: You're implying that Scum want to get themselves in hot water there. I don't think that makes sense.

Just because I'm new, I'm wondering what gives someone a town read. From my understanding, if there's a particular action someone can take, scum could also take that action and appear town. I thought town reads came from a lack of doing scummy things.

Which is why we try and look past the actions to the reasons people are taking them. Why did X say Y? Why is Z pushing A? I have a weird feeling about how B is acting towards C...

Things like that.

Just because I'm new, I'm wondering what gives someone a town read. From my understanding, if there's a particular action someone can take, scum could also take that action and appear town. I thought town reads came from a lack of doing scummy things.

Unless you just meant I haven't posted much. I've been traveling.

Town or Scum reads are not strictly based on actions, but rather the MOTIVATION for the actions. Any action can be done by any alignment. The question we as Townies need to ask is WHY.

well look at you saying it better than me

--
dammit pc
look at your life, look at your choices

[goodmorning]

It's definitely a bit weird. I don't know how much we can really conclude from it though.

[goodmorning]

I don't have a very strong read on PC. I do have a slight scumread, but it isn't for the reasons everyone else shares in scumreading him. I thought I addressed it in a post but can't find it, so it's basically this: where I thought "this could be genuine or he could be familiar with site meta," PC just assumed "genuine" without any deeper thinking. It's that surface-level thinking that I scumread, not the vote or the calling you Town in itself.

[goodmorning]

It's pretty common from both; Town is more paranoid but Mafia find it useful to turn arguments into 1v1s or to distance from their partners.

[goodmorning]

Tunneling is a mild scumtell, if that helps?

[goodmorning]

But it did, and no one else has reached nearly this level of scumminess, though MortFeld does seem slightly off to me as well.

I kind of want to talk about this, but later.

btw does the self vote are categorized as OMGUS too?
Sry, i've read the wiki but i don't really understand...

OMGUS means "oh my god, you suck!"
An OMGUS vote is when you vote someone because they suspect you.

[goodmorning]

@Vettrock: That's an interesting argument actually. But there's still plenty of content to look at. I've got a couple strong townreads already...

[goodmorning]

That's L-1. Why you wouldn't announce that I do not know.

Now. I know who I'm going to vote for, but first I have a request for Azorius: Please analyse the votes on your wagon. Which ones look sketchy? Which ones look legit? This is something I did in N1532 and it was pretty helpful there. ctrl+f "second wagon" in my ISO.

[goodmorning]

@goodmorning or any of the SEs
How do you keep track of the game, especially when you're playing others at the same time? Do you take notes?
Is there an easy way to quote someone once I've already started writing a message?

I don't tend to forget things as they happen. One thing I try to do is make all my posting really transparent so that I can go back at any time and see who I'm scumreading (or pretending to scumread) at any given time and why.
Except early D1 in Newbie games I'm ICing, but that's a special case.

Out of curiosity, would everyone here be happy if their vote target was lynched? It seems people use votes differently to what I'm used to (ie to provoke reactions, not just to lynch)

I'd be pretty indifferent if vettrock was lynched atm. But yes, there are a few reasons we vote people here: to lynch, to pressure, to get reactions from who we voted, to get reactions from other people, just to name a few.
My vote on vettrock is none of those.

It's not rude to post this many times in a row is it? Just checking beccause some forums don't like double posts (but I guess you can edit on those).

Nah, it's all good.

Am I allowed to edit to fix the quote?

Nope! You can ask the mod to do so but he might say no. It's still readable, don't worry.

As far as votes are concerned I am almost positive that at LEAST one member of the mafia team is voting me. FMPOV I know that i am town and I find it very hard to believe that I'm being read this strongly as scum by ALL townies here.

Well, I don't think EVERYONE is scumreading you.
Also, something like 30% of D1 wagons in Newbie games are Town-only. So there is that.

Thanks for analysing your votes

I think there's definitely something to be said about the way Performer bent 65 from "it feels like a mislynch" to "it is a mislynch."

--
Now, some old loose ends:
The person I had my eye on was Azorius. He felt like he was trying too hard to fit in with his RVS. I no longer have my eye on him; he reminds me somewhat of my playstyle when I was new, what with all the formality and so on.
Currently, I have very strong townreads on Rat, ai, and Mort.

[goodmorning]

He defended you by stating people pushing on him are about to cause a mislynch.

That is not what he said at all. That is not it, at all.

Now, some old loose ends:
The person I had my eye on was Azorius. He felt like he was trying too hard to fit in with his RVS. I no longer have my eye on him; he reminds me somewhat of my playstyle when I was new, what with all the formality and so on.
Currently, I have very strong townreads on Rat, ai, and Mort.

I also have a fairly confident TR on Mort. May I ask what your reasoning is for your strong TR's on ai and Rat are?

Rat has just pushed all the right buttons. I'm still a little paranoid about that, but the more good questions he asks, the more I'm willing to let go of that paranoia.
ai is a little more complicated to explain; basically, this is my 45th-ish Newbie game and he just really looks like newbTown.

Fun fact: I was actually considering voting for Mort until very recently.

[goodmorning]

So you think that there can be accurate suspicions during RVS?

idk about Vettrock, but I certainly do.

@Performer: Are you ever going to address what I said in 130 and 139?

[goodmorning]

So you think that there can be accurate suspicions during RVS?

idk about Vettrock, but I certainly do.

Can you elaborate? What can be suspicious about random vote placement? As it is random, how is it possible to detect scummy motives?

Not the votes. What people say to "justify" them.

In Shadows and Lights, for instance, I caught Scum just from their RVS posting.

I think there's definitely something to be said about the way Performer bent 65 from "it feels like a mislynch" to "it is a mislynch."

What do you mean by this, goodmorning?

Just what I say. What he actually said is not at all what you say he said.

Now, some old loose ends:
The person I had my eye on was Azorius. He felt like he was trying too hard to fit in with his RVS. I no longer have my eye on him; he reminds me somewhat of my playstyle when I was new, what with all the formality and so on.
Currently, I have very strong townreads on Rat, ai, and Mort.

What the...I thought you had your eye on vettrock??

Question - do you play mainly off of gut?

And what's your basis for Rat and Ai?

Vettrock hadn't posted yet when I said that though.
It's not really gut. I could probably sit down and analyse what precisely goes into reading someone as "newbTown," but it's a lot of work and the outcome is the same. I do play a lot off meta. And tone. Tone is a big one.
I think I answered that already, unless there was something more specific you wanted?

@Performer: Are you ever going to address what I said in 130 and 139?

I actually replied to Azor on pg 6 , who was the person I was addressing. I'm not certain why you felt like you had to follow-up on something small that I asked him? : /
I believe I addressed both of your posts already. If I missed something, please let me know.

Considering it's the main thrust of your scumread against him...?
I'm saying that he didn't say what you say he said. Do you see why I find this important?

Vet states that there isn't much to go on from D1, but then he says that there was suspicion sucked away when I self-voted. I might just be misunderstanding.
@All, can you either reply with your thoughts or translate?

Ok, it's like this. We drop a single nail in a large field. Then we bring out a massive magnet. The nail is attracted to the magnet. The nail is dwarfed by the magnet. You can't even see the nail because the magnet is so huge.
The nail is "people's attention being drawn to anything suspicious" and the magnet is your selfvote.
That's what he means with those posts.

[goodmorning]

ai is a little more complicated to explain; basically, this is my 45th-ish Newbie game and he just really looks like newbTown.

Complicated, ok. But there are 3 SEs and other players - maybe we can put our heads together to understand where you're coming from about your complex read on Ai.

Can you explain about that read on Ai, goodmorning? His posts look like what he said, being the first time he played in an English version of FM, which made me null him.

but you just asked this omg
Anyway it's not complicated to understand, just to explain.

Fun fact: I was actually considering voting for Mort until very recently.

@goodmorning This is interesting. Can you explain for us?

I found him scummy. Suddenly I found him ridiculously towny.

Yeah, I would also like to know why you were considering voting for me in the first place @goodmorning, and why you changed your mind.

See above.
(I'm guessing you want something a little more specific. I'll get to it soon.)

Also, if vet is laying low, can we assume that he is a power role? I play power roles purposely a bit scummy so that I'm left alone by mafia because they think I could be a future ML target.

...why are you PR hunting?

Also, if vet is laying low, can we assume that he is a power role? I play power roles purposely a bit scummy so that I'm left alone by mafia because they think I could be a future ML target.

Are you trying to fish a claim with this post? What is the purpose of this?

WIFOM. Fun to get inside the mafias head before night.

g r o s s

[goodmorning]

It's already been explained.

[goodmorning]

^oh actually what goodmorning said is newbTown,
Well, i've been playing in 13 games (eventough the way we play are alot different there.), and moding 1 game. I'm not used to some rule here, like i mentioned before plus i forgot to mention unlimited vote and 2 weeks phase deadline.

My point exactly.

Mafia here is pretty different than anywhere else.

[goodmorning]

@GM point me my mistake that give out my newbness

It's not mistakes. It's outlook and tone and depth of analysis. It's paranoia and posting and your reasons for suspecting people.

Anyway there's nothing wrong with being newbTown. I was newbTown as anything in my first few games here despite quite a lot of prior experience.

You sat at L-1 for a very long time, and seemed to ignore all the posts telling you to unvote.... At least until you had an opportunity to put someone else at L-1..... Without announcing it.....

Can you show me some of these posts telling me to unvote? From my pov your trying to throw shit at me.

ai's 54, 58, 64, 91.
Can you actually read the game instead of wasting people's time?

Anyway, who knows? I don't know if he's a PR or not.

Why are you talking about this after I already said it's not a good thing to talk about?

Does this have something to do with my Wiki webpage in my profile?

No, but I just looked at it and wouldn't call this behaviour of yours "highly protective of PRs" so...

@Gm that's interesting that you mention tone and meta. So would it be correct to say your scumread on Vet is based partly on him acting very differently, in his town games compared to here?

If so, can you provide a few links?

No? Vettrock was a Random vote. I just said I'd be pretty indifferent were he to be lynched. I also just said I know who I plan on moving my vote to. So no, I don't have a scumread on vettrock.

I find gm's townread reasoning for Ai, is most concerning. He raises the same concern that I have, to her, for her townread of him.

What, that you're misinterpreting what I mean by newbTown you mean?

@Gm I skimmed your ISO and am not finding the "why" to your townread on Radical.

@PC you and gm seem to have played at least 1 game together, based on her interaction with you. Can you provide some detail on her scumplay?
If not, has anyone else played with her when she was scum? I'm trying to get a more firm read on her.

Rat has just pushed all the right buttons. I'm still a little paranoid about that, but the more good questions he asks, the more I'm willing to let go of that paranoia.

The game PC and I had together was N1632. It was my third Newbie scumgame in a row. I was SEScum there, so I played slightly differently than I do as ICScum, but not so much that anyone but me would probably notice. PC was Town.

[goodmorning]

Good early morning, good morning! Lol
I had insomnia and woke up after 4 hours. Normally that'd be a terrible idea.
-----

Why are you talking about this after I already said it's not a good thing to talk about?

Well...he asked me a question, thought I 'd just reply.

The game PC and I had together was N1632. It was my third Newbie scumgame in a row. I was SEScum there, so I played slightly differently than I do as ICScum, but not so much that anyone but me would probably notice. PC was Town.

I have never heard of someone playing differently in terms of SE and IC scum. I'll take a look at that game ! Thanks

That does sound like a terrible idea.

Hm.

I play differently as an IC generally. It's a thing I've run into before.

[goodmorning]

Why Vettrock?

[goodmorning]

PC is not the Cop. I know this because I have a Role that can't exist in a setup with a Cop. This means I am one of {Tracker, JK, BP.} No, I'm not telling you which.

Vote: PC

That's a lynch. I'll try and answer questions before threadlock.

[goodmorning]

217 is a good post. Mort is not Scum.

224: It's already been answered, and I told you that it's already been answered.

More tomorrow! Anyone around should post as much as they can in twilight!

[goodmorning]

People I want to look at a little harder tomorrow: Vettrock, Performer, maybe shrike? Probably not shrike.

[goodmorning]

Yeah, this is why we don't fakeclaim as Town in a SemiOpen setup. It just outs PRs and gets us lynched anyway.

So. I'm still a Town PR. If anyone wants to CC me, do it now. If there is a 2nd PR, they should not claim.

I'm going to reread D1 now, with attention to when people vote the PC wagon and why.

[goodmorning]

If anyone is going to COUNTERCLAIM me, as in, say I am not a Town PR because THEY are the Town PR, that sets us up as almost certainly 1-Town-1-Scum, which is very helpful for obvious reasons.

If there is a 2nd PR, they're not going to CC me because they likely have quite a good idea what setup we're in and what I am. If there isn't a 2nd PR then it doesn't matter.

[goodmorning]

Oh, and does everyone understand how to read the setup matrix?

[goodmorning]

Hmm.

[goodmorning]

A Cop wouldn't need to use his power on me, because he'd already know I was lying.

Anyway a 1-for-1 trade, PR for Scum, is absolutely worth it for Town.


Scum could have no-killed. It's unlikely though.

[goodmorning]

People I want to look at a little harder tomorrow: Vettrock, Performer, maybe shrike? Probably not shrike.

I assume this was based on the assumption that PC was mafia. How did him flipping town change your views?

It doesn't really. I don't usually do associatives til after flips. I did have a thought that he and Vettrock could be doing what I did with my partner in N1521, where I made sure to draw attention away from his low activity.

So I still want to look at Vettrock and Performer and maybe but probably not you. I've been at school all day but will probably get to this tonight.

So GM is confirmed town, at least, if no one is going to counterclaim a role.

Well, sort of confirmedish. As confirmed as one can be without fullclaiming, and some of the roles it's possible for me to claim are also roles that don't exist in some setups, so.

[goodmorning]

How do we feel about discussing the events of last night as a town? Could it lead to a clearer understanding of who could be mafia, or is it not worth the risk of a PR slip?

It's not really going to help much.
The end result is basically:
1. The Mafia tried to kill someone but they were JK'd.
2. The Mafia tried to kill someone but he was Doc'd/JK'd/BP.
3. The Mafia didn't try to kill anyone.

3 is very unlikely. The rest are all PR-related.

People I want to look at a little harder tomorrow: Vettrock, Performer, maybe shrike? Probably not shrike.

I assume this was based on the assumption that PC was mafia. How did him flipping town change your views?

It doesn't really. I don't usually do associatives til after flips.

Does that mean townie claiming is common in mafiascum? Otherwise I don't see why you wouldn't have 100% thought that PC was mafia.

Town fakeclaiming is thankfully pretty rare, but it's not completely unheard of, so I don't always assume. I assumed enough to quickhammer him, obviously.
I didn't really have time to go back and do associatives off PC before the thread was locked anyway.
Which is good because it would have been a waste of time.

So I still want to look at Vettrock and Performer and maybe but probably not you

I'm not certain where to even begin with this part of gm's post.

Try then.

[goodmorning]

There is no JK in this game.
Working on the assumption that the Mafia DID try to kill someone, which seeing as how they have a revealed power role, they almost certainly did, if they were jailed, the JK would be pushing for their lynch, since they would know at least one Mafia member.

Seeing as how I'm the only current voter, this is not the case.
Therefore, goodmorning was the BP, and she'll be finished off tonight.

Jailkeeper works as a block, yes. BUT it ALSO works as a protect. A JK could draw no such conclusions.

( Also could you link this wiki page? I couldn't find it in the index. )

You can find anyone's wiki page by hitting the "wiki" button below their avatar/location/joindate.

You can find the wiki itself by clicking "Wiki" at the top right, between "Search" and "Rules".

[goodmorning]

True, but with you as the obvious kill target, if I were a JK, and didn't jail you, I'd be confident in the assumption that the person I jailed was a filthy mafia.

That's a lot of ifs.

[goodmorning]

I think I've read somewhere that the second person to join a wagon is usually mafia.

Actually, the opposite tends to be true, on D1 in Newbie games at least.

Nothing screaming scum at me but now that PC has flipped town I think there is probably mafia in at least one of these votes on PC excluding GM.

Actually roughly 30% of wagons in Newbie games are comprised solely of Town voters iirc.

VOTE: AzoriousSenate

Call it an OMGUS if you like, but where Performer is just a vaguely suspicious feeling, I've got hard evidence on Azorious.

Stylization of posts is a bull!@#$ reason to question someone's alignment, and who loves bull!@#$ reasons more than.....

THE MAFIA!

i just died laughing

rat is clearly mafia for killing a town pr ok

@TIMU: Your read progression on Azorius is weird but idk what to say or think or feel about it so w/e.

[goodmorning]

Wait, killing a Town PR? Is that just a joke about Phantom's fakeclaim, or are you suggesting that Azorious is a PR?

It was a joke about you killing me with jokes.

[goodmorning]

Vote: Vettrock

[goodmorning]

Vote: Vettrock

May I ask for your reasoning?

I got bored, basically.

[goodmorning]

And every time shrike looks worse he turns around and says something that makes him look better.

[goodmorning]

dammit stop looking town everyone

[goodmorning]

actually generic wisdom holds that town shouldn't give a shit abt how they look



but it's kind of a playstyle thing

[goodmorning]

@Goodmorning
I'm sorry, I'm having trouble understanding this.

Why would a Town just ACCEPT a scumread on them? With no refutation?

The idea is more that they don't actively try to avoid being scumread rather than that they accept scumreads on them.


Now, whether conventional wisdom is correct is a separate issue. And like I said, it's more a playstyle thing.

[goodmorning]

So goodmorning. You're the closest thing we've got to a Confirmed Town, and the most experienced one here. I'd like to know what you make of this mess. Do you think Azorious is acting scummily?

Well, no and yes. Your idea that tunneling can be a mild scumtell is a good one, for instance.

Basically I've been having really flipfloppy reads on all of you. One of you will say or do something that pings me, then acquit yourself, then someone else will, and so forth.

I haven't been ICTown in a really long time, basically. (Just looked it up: SINCE JUNE????) I'm still trying to get back into it.

--
The thing that's bothering me the most here is Vettrock's absence. We didn't make him take any stances D1. I'd like him to do it now, before we get any further.

[goodmorning]

The most suspect people to me, on PC's wagon - are the middle 3 of vett/Mort/shrike.

Statistically speaking that's actually the opposite of what we expect to see D1, but it's not like it doesn't happen, so.

as soon as I mention your name, you pop back up. Just seems a bit odd, y'know?

eyyyyyyy Beetlejuice.

A tell as useful as the Amished.

gm I seem to recall you said you think someone's town (I forget if it was shrike)? How sure are you on this?

dammit stop looking town everyone

I am literally not sure of my read on anyone atm. I don't really remember how to be Town. But at least I'm a claimed PR so I don't have to take stances I'll regret later.
I'd really like to see more people making cases and pushing wagons. That is immensely helpful.

I can't really quote more than one person

exactly

, but I am scumreading Azorius, RR, and vettrock because of my thoughts on the posts they made.

Can you explain these a little more?

Sidequestion: Are there stats on whether mafia is more or less likely to replace out than village?

There are!
I linked it in the Newbie Queue pretty recently so I'm not going to go look for it right this second, but it's there!

thx vettrock

It is important for both scum and town to try and look town. If you are town and you don't care or defend yourself, you are likely to be mislynched, and that doesn't help town. When town spends more effort trying to look town rather than finding scum, that is a problem. Some people take this more seriously than others, and some people have a much higher threshold for when they just give up, or keep fighting.

I try not to tell Newbies to try to look Town because they always seem to do it in the scummiest possible way.

But yes.

Explain your reads please.

[goodmorning]

TIMU isn't looking THAT good.

I have to say I agree with you there.

[goodmorning]

That may also be true.

[goodmorning]

seriously where the hell is vettrock

[goodmorning]

gm I'd like your input on the following 3, as you said this about them before:
your townread for Mort was based on tone of his posts
you townread Radical
you townread Ai because he was coming across as newb town

Anything changed on your reads of them, and why?

Not a whole lot. I'm a little paranoid of TIMU because his catchup largely seems to mimic the vague consensuses we have in the game so far. I'm a little paranoid of Rat because I've always been a little paranoid of Rat. I'm a little paranoid of ai because he hasn't escalated play in the way I would expect.

But I think I still townread all those slots.

--
I should maybe go back and see if there's anyone casting suspicion on approximately everyone D1.

[goodmorning]

Anyway, I would support a Azorius lynch and if he's Mafia probably a vettrock lynch since RR would pretty much be clear if he flips scum.

@ai well, TiMU's post above demands elaboration.

Ai's other things in his following post, in 379 , spoke of things I already addressed so I don't see his purpose of that post in calling me out. His continued tunnel on me for who-knows-what, is getting stranger every day.
-----
I really don't see why folks scumread Radical. His 269 and 270 read Townie to me, and with the rest of his ISO - he's not scummy to me.
As for Azor, his interactions on pg 15 in d2, moved me to put him in my townread pile – those came across as genuinely frustrated town to me.

You townread RR for talking about hypothetical game mechanics? Could you elaborate on that?

This is actually a very good question, especially given that those are probably the least towny posts Rat has posted.

--
shrike is Town, add that guy to my townlist pronto.
TIMU is still kind of underwhelming.
Performer brings up a valid point about vettrock.

[goodmorning]

hey guys, will try and catchup as soon as possible.

Jake!

I think you might be Scum by PoE, sorry.

[goodmorning]

Well, I have shrike and ai as Town; Rat, Azorius, and Performer keep flipping into and out of that category; so that leaves you and TIMU.

I don't think it's that bad a PoE.

[goodmorning]

Finally, although rolespeccing is bad or something, it is confirmed that we are either using setup 1 or setup C with the lack of a Night kill and what goodmorning has stated! That's nice~

Why do you discount A?

[goodmorning]

So if I'm scum day one I think I would make it a priority NOT to be the hammering vote on any townies.

Missed this earlier. Interestingly, you'd be going against site meta in that; Scum are most likely to either start or end a D1 wagon on Town.

Went back and checked, when I said C I meant A

Why do you discount C then?

@GM can you point me where did performer show a valid read on vetrock?

I didn't say he had one.

I said it was a valid point that one might want to PL any slots one doesn't want in LyLo.

I did say I have to catchup first.

I understand that. That's why I think you should've read through the game first and form some opinions before responding to gm's low effort jabs.

Low effort jabs like that one right there? ouch.

@Shrike
I'm like... 99% sure 426 was meant as a joke with GM, since they seem to know eachother. Don't take it seriously.

It was also a good excuse for me to outline my genuine thought processes, such as I have left.

@Vettrock: That's an interesting argument actually. But there's still plenty of content to look at. I've got a couple strong townreads already...

Impossible

Very possible. I scumread AP once by post 32 in a game that started on post 20ish. And townreads are easier.

Tunneling is a mild scumtell, if that helps?

Not for

some people

. That's what the "mild" is for.

[goodmorning]

HEY GM - I am at the end of page 9 and don't really see a good explanation as to why the mort town read. If you explained it can you point me to this post so I don't bring it up again later? Thanks

I really liked the tone of his posts on p5-6. They looked like genuine trying to figure stuff out.

[goodmorning]

Well, we have been known to disagree.

Is this going to turn into N1565 again? I'd like to confidently townread you, it would really help.

[goodmorning]

Yes. You hard-defended the Scum RB I was lynching and then thought I was going to want to lynch you next.

End of D1, PC at L-1 claimed Cop, I claimed a PR that knows there is no Cop and hammered him.

You should read TIMU and see if you're as skeptical about him as you were about Mort, because I kind of am.

[goodmorning]

It was Beli so I don't really blame you.

I think it was just kind of circumstances. Nobody unvoted him after he claimed Cop, if that helps.

[goodmorning]

Well, actually I made a mistake. C is possible.

Hmmmmmmmm.

[goodmorning]

Setups on the Matrix.

[goodmorning]

Setups on the Matrix.

Oh lol

I'll probably talk more about it tomorrow.

@GM
"I said it was a valid point that one might
want to PL any slots one doesn't want in
LyLo."
Hummm... I've been thinking this through...
About policy lynch, i will agree to this as the last resort if i only have town and null on my reads...

Well sure, nobody's saying it's the greatest idea ever.

@timu & gm
A, C, 1? What about 3? seriously, i don't get it...

They are setups on the Matrix. If nobody was killed last night, we know one of the following is true:
1. JK blocked the killer.
2. JK protected the killed.
3. Doctor protected the killed.
4. Killer tried to kill the BP.
5. Mafia didn't kill. (This one is very unlikely, which is why we assume it was due to role stuff.)

Ultimately, though, speculating on a No-Kill is much better for Scum than it is for Town, which is why we should stop it here.

[goodmorning]

@goodmorning
I think it's coming up on a time where we need to decide on a lynch for today. I notice you have your vote on Jake. I 100% agree that Jake's slot has been leaning scum for me most of the game. I think I would lynch in Rat/Jake today.

Could you provide thoughts on who would be the best lynch for town or give us some people that we should look at? I would feel more comfortable with lynching my own scumreads or at the very least the scumreads of someone who is more experienced in forum mafia and is 99% town.

tbh I am not sure. I'm kind of convincing myself I really want a TIMU lynch for ~reasons~ but what will I do if I'm wrong????

I understand that. That's why I think you should've read through the game first and form some opinions before responding to gm's low effort jabs.

Low effort jabs like that one right there? ouch.

That post was really badly phrased. I made it when I was mad at somthing irl and it definitely shows.

(actually i kind of enjoyed it, don't worry)

Ultimately, though, speculating on a No-Kill is much better for Scum than it is for Town, which is why we should stop it here.

Didn't we decide this about 5 pages ago? Who brought this up again?

No idea. TIMU, I think?

[goodmorning]

@goodmorning
I think it's coming up on a time where we need to decide on a lynch for today. I notice you have your vote on Jake. I 100% agree that Jake's slot has been leaning scum for me most of the game. I think I would lynch in Rat/Jake today.

Could you provide thoughts on who would be the best lynch for town or give us some people that we should look at? I would feel more comfortable with lynching my own scumreads or at the very least the scumreads of someone who is more experienced in forum mafia and is 99% town.

tbh I am not sure. I'm kind of convincing myself I really want a TIMU lynch for ~reasons~ but what will I do if I'm wrong????

Not sure what this is supposed to mean. If you're wrong then you lynch Town, you will be put into potential MyLo, and my flip puts some more evidence against RR and Jake. Don't see why a confirmed Town sees the need to say this. Why am I even pointing out weird statements for confirmed Town? Still, here we go again with you not telling the reason for lynching someone by the way. Please share it with us, we desire the information!

Anyway, I wouldn't mind lynching RR/Jake like Azorius. Speaking of Azor, I actually saw him in Epicmafia today XD

Well, I can't really explain it because it hinges on things we shouldn't talk about.

If I'm wrong it'll probably destroy my confidence for a solid few days.

tbh I am not sure. I'm kind of convincing myself I really want a TIMU lynch for ~reasons~

If I had a dollar for every vague post you made I'd be a rich man by now.

If there were a way to make money off of vague posting I couldn't possibly do it more than I do now.

--
@Jake: I don't want to rush you, but deadline is nearing and we're down Performer's vote if we want to lynch anyone but you.

[goodmorning]

@shrike: That's correct.

[goodmorning]

Hmmmm.

[goodmorning]

When other people say things first.

Suffice it that some of them are less good thoughts.

[goodmorning]

I don't really like being Town Leader, so...

[goodmorning]

Why didn't you discourage performer when he tried to rally people to sheep you and him? Do you feel he has been buddying you?

I can't say I noticed him trying to collect sheep. I also haven't noticed him buddying me.

I don't really like being Town Leader, so...

You want to sheep me then? Let's kill Rat.

No, not really. I don't have much issue with Rat either.

I think this fight between Azorius and RR is dumb and I don't want the vote to be between those two.

Town.

This isn't actually backed up by stats (I looked at the page vettrock linked me before but couldn't find them), but I think it's unlikely that the mafia would both be on the same vote, especially in a newbie game.

It's not in Toomai's stats but it is in mine. Roughly 50% of lynchwagons in Newbies have 1 Scum, 30% 0, 20% 2. This meta is slightly outdated though, and also it underweights 2-Scum wagons because it includes times in the game when 2 Scum aren't alive to vote on wagons.

Don't believe in them, waste of time, and they give Mafia too much info

I disagree, but we can have this argument another time.

I'm not sure how I feel about this reads list thing.

I feel like the Town can benefit more if we're all open about and discuss our reads. I think that's the best way to get the Town on the same page, and get the Scum bringing their "brown pants" to the fight.

This is p much what I feel.
Also, Scum can read interactions and votes just as easily as any readslist.

[goodmorning]

643 and 644 are pretty sketch y/y?

[goodmorning]

I thought they'd target you again, which they clearly didn't.

This requires explanation.

[goodmorning]

Catching up what I missed:

Also, I wish goodmorning would step up her play in here . Seriously. Are you still townreading Rad & ai? Thoughts on what just happened on page 24?

I'm in the process of moving. Seriously. Yes to both of those. Not really. Was there something in particular?

--
Azorius looks very Town now.

--
I don't see anything that stands out to me as particularly Scum-orchestrated in the no-lynch.

[goodmorning]

Azorius looks very Town now.

Don't agree with this. Btw where were you deadline day. Disappearing like that doesn't help my paranoia about you.

I'm sorry you feel that way.
For the answer to that question see 653.
This doesn't feel like real Jake paranoia at all.

I thought they'd target you again, which they clearly didn't.

This requires explanation.

It means exactly what it says - I thought they'd go for you again on n2. I expected your flip on d3. Obviously that wasn't the case.

What makes you so sure they went for me N1?

Although you're saying you're in the middle moving so it's taking up an enormous amount of time, I have a hypothesis on what you're plotting. Question - do you still think the Jake or TiMU slots are scummy?

I'm not actually plotting anything but ok. Yes.

[goodmorning]

Azorius looks very Town now.

Don't agree with this. Btw where were you deadline day. Disappearing like that doesn't help my paranoia about you.

I'm sorry you feel that way.
For the answer to that question see 653.
This doesn't feel like real Jake paranoia at all.

Could you link to the game(s) you've played with him before?

N1565
N1476
N1445
MT1520

@Performer: You really tell us you're not Scum a lot. Why?

[goodmorning]

(We were both Town in the Newbies and both Scum in the MT.)

[goodmorning]

Have you ever heard the writing tip "show, don't tell?" Yeah.

[goodmorning]

Have you ever heard the writing tip "show, don't tell?" Yeah.

Ok.

What's preventing you from voting either of your scumreads?

1. I don't care that much about votes.
1a. Nobody else is voting either, ask them.
2. What makes you think I only have 2 scumreads?

From what I did read though, Jake seemed much more aggressive in that MT game where he was scum than he does now.

Jake is sometimes super aggressive and sometimes not. It doesn't appear to be alignment linked but it does always throw me off.

This doesn't feel like real Jake paranoia at all

idk even what that means. If you are expecting me to fly off the handle and stat yelling at people I am trying not to do that anymore cause more and more people are getting pissed off at me. I can go into more details at some point but not right now cause of ongoing

I don't expect you to fly off the handle. I do expect some kind of reasoning behind 'eh we can't be 100% sure of gm omg'.
It feels like you're just saying it to "throw shade," as the kids say, rather than for any legitimate reason.

So shrike dying with his vote on Performer doesn't look very good for Performer. Anyone have thoughts on this? I was having thoughts yesterday of voting Performer at the end of the day. I ended up throwing my vote back on Jake because Jake is a gigantic question mark in this game. GM, someone who has played with Jake before, has been saying that Jake has been acting weird. All of these factors are reasons why I want a Jake lynch today. He probably should have been killed yesterday.

Scum can kill for a hundred different reasons, and suspicion is only one of them.
Do you have any reads of your own though?

Okay, so... TIMU put Vettrock on a scum list, said he didn't like some posts, but ACTUALLY meant some other unknown person this entire time?

I don't buy it. Also, putting yourself on a scum list like that... I can tell it's meant to be sarcastic but that reminds me all too much of Town of Salem, where time and time again, Mafia gets called out, says "Yep, I'm totally maf. Idiot Town..." and then flips scum. I just don't like this at all.

Also, you're starting a WIFOM with that bit at the end there. Be careful.

I feel what you're saying here.

As far as Jake goes, GM's suspicion on him is troubling. I like his posts. I think he's Town. And yet... GM is all but confirmed Town, and actually has experience with him as both, scum and Town. I'd really like for her to expand on that read a bit...

I'd really like for me to expand on that read a bit too.

Goodmorning, at your earliest convenience, could you elaborate on Jake's scumread for us?

All I really have there is just the paranoia stuff. I don't really think I want to lynch him today.

Currently I have this weird feeling it could be TIMU/ai.

Merry Christmas!

[goodmorning]

Ai? Something in particular bothering you, or just a feeling?

ai would just make more sense with TIMU than pretty much anyone else.

I'd vote TIMU here but I don't want him at L-1 until everyone's back properly from the holidays.

[goodmorning]

@Performer: Why are we making this a Jake-and-TIMU dichotomy?

I play with everything I can use, but am mostly meta-reliant rather than gut-reliant.

[goodmorning]

@Performer: But why are we "trusting" me? I'm not infallible.

[goodmorning]

@Performer: But why are we "trusting" me? I'm not infallible.

goodmorning you're not the only thing I'm trusting so far, but I'm choosing to have some faith in you.

I still don't get it.

[goodmorning]

Hi UpTooLate! Please catch up as soon as you can and tell us what you think!

[goodmorning]

[goodmorning]

Lion!

y u no excited to see me?????????

V/LA til the 6th

[goodmorning]

I could maybe see a Rat wagon now? idk.

I definitely like the contributions from both replacements. Still not sure how I feel about TIMU.

[goodmorning]

RE: signatures: User Control Panel > Profile > Edit signature > Type what you want to appear in the sig, attributing it to RR in whatever way you like best.

@Performer RE: Dead Thread question: "What do you mean play third party as weakly Town?" I mean that the best strategy with most 3p roles is to play like a Townie. Not so strongly that you'll get NK'd, not so weakly that you'll be lynched or thought to be a Town PR. It's a good balancing act.

[goodmorning]

If anyone wants me to say IC things, just ask!

[goodmorning]

Yes. Share your IC wisdom with us.

Anything specific?

[goodmorning]

Shrugs

Just whatever stood out to you, I suppose.

That's a difficult thing to quantify sometimes. Maybe I'll just go down the list and talk about people.