Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Sup nerds and Gamma
It's good to be back
VOTE: PuffaliciousP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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btw I thought this is what crabapples looked like, but it seems like the majority of the results show little red ones like in the pfp
Spoiler:P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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That's bold - was that you both posting once each or just one of you? Who is 30 if different people?P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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unluckyP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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I'm feeling this actually
VOTE: CeleblokiP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Just vibes really.
Anyone else familiarized themselves at all with previous runs of the setup? I'm mostly skimming them. The stats show 50-50 but I feel this should be more townsided than that stat shows. In 3 of the 4 mafia wins, a town PR was eliminated. Twice on D1, and once on D2 - never in ELO/MELO. Let's not have that happen this time.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Eh it's a bit of a shitshow really, upon further digging:
In one game House opens the game fakeclaiming Town Rolecop as VT which causes Save The Dragons, the actual Town Tracker, to get into a situation where he is eliminated D1. House's replacement is for some reason NKed right before ELO after that fakeclaim which could have easily lost Town the game on D3. They ended up losing in D4 ELO after catching scum D3.
In another maf win, the Town Babysitter self-hammered on D2 near deadline stating their death would give info after the other TPR was already NKed N1. So... if you're worried about getting deadlined as PR maybe claim earlier than normal to give people time to wagon elsewhere?
Finally there is a game where the Vanilla Cop just doesn't claim on D1 for some reason and is Eliminated. Like in that situation obviously you should claim as there is a 50-50 shot that a town doctor can protect you that night.
So let's use our noggins in this one pleaseP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Can you expand on this? I hadn't considered hypoclaiming before you pointed that out, but now that you have I've noticed something. (waiting to post it for now)In post 43, Mizuki wrote: I did briefly consider if hypoclaiming (everyone picks a town role off the clock and then claims a target/result at the beginning of D2, the actual town PR's could claim their real results and then if they die) would be useful here, and I think it might beunless the clock specifically landed on 5.Would require everyone to be on board with it, though.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.
I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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55 was a response to 46. Too lazy to pedit on phoneP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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This is correct. Maf have a 1/6 chance of guessing the setup from Rolecop POV and a 1/3 chance from either of the other PRs. Since the "other PRs" and the "rolecop" scenarios are equally likely we can just average this to a 25% chance to guess the setup outright (but in reality it is either 16.67% or 33% depending on what PR they got.In post 57, Thomith wrote:
I don't think that's true. Due to how the clock could work, I think there would be 3 different combinations of Town PR's that it could be depending on the Mafia's PR. Even more if the Mafia have a Rolecop.In post 53, Mizuki wrote: That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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I think the ideal play for D2 is to do a pre-hypoclaim "categorical" claim where everyone claims whether or not they have a hard guilty. A hard guilty here would be a Rolecop that discovers a Rolecop/Roleblocker, or a Follower that sees their target kill. Assuming everyone claims they do NOT have a guilty, then we can proceed to hypoclaiming as though we are all one of the 4 roles that surrounds Mafia Rolecop. This will allow anyone who is actually on 2/4/8/10 to claim their results for post-flip analysis without giving too much away to scum in the moment. On the plus side, in the case of a hard guilty, there is a 50% chance that the other TPR is a protective that can save the player that claimed the hard guilty for more results D3 onward.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Wait I'm mistaken, a rolecop that discovers a roleblocker is not a hard guilty upon further inspection. Town Rolecop can be in the same setup as Town Roleblocker
pedit: yeah Thomith sees itP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Those players are meant to fakeclaim the way a VT would during the hypoclaim and pretend they are a 2/4/8/10. Post-flip of the 1/5/7/11 they might know the exact setup if they can POE the actual result of an unflipped 2/4/8/10 from amongst the hypoclaims but I think as long as everyone sticks to 2/4/8/10 it should be +EV for townIn post 65, Gamma Emerald wrote:
This strat isn’t great because based on the one player that is on 1/5/7/11 mafia can solve the setupIn post 55, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.
I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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All this hypoclaim business is most likely only ideal if we see VT Elim > VT NK btw. If something else happens it will need to be rethought based on the info available.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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What are you thinking otherwise about the wagon on you at present - ignoring the setup spec?P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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HmmmmmP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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@Puff Why is Celebloki townP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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I felt like the townread on Celebloki was too easily given and maybe even counterintuitive when I posted 93. It gives me the feeling of TMI. This answer does nothing to change my mind about that either.In post 99, Puffalicious wrote:
Seems towny based on their response to what I asked.In post 93, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: @Puff Why is Celebloki town
As of 91 Puff has a TR on Celebloki. I didn't really see much in the way of interaction between them and what I did see was 2 questions in 81 and 86 (below).In post 91, Puffalicious wrote:
Just testing somethin.In post 88, Mizuki wrote: Crab has not posted anything past their alt-slip, so their very much a null at this point.
If I can ask, what exactly do you hope to gain from questioning people's RVS votes?
I think Celebloki is town btw.
We see Puff question why Celebloki TRs me. At this time I am voting Celebloki and it's not RVS (40). I found it a little odd this wasnt mentioned. Unsure if it was noticed. If not, it tells me she was not paying attention/did not care that I was voting Celebloki which reinforces for me that scum!Puff may be TMIing town!Celebloki, but that is to be seen after flips.In post 81, Puffalicious wrote:
Are you town reading them because of the setup talk? Those type of stuff are nai.In post 80, Celebloki wrote: I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.
UNVOTE:
- A
The other question comes in 86 and note that this is after Puff's first question was answered in 83. In Celebloki's answer to Puff's first question, he indicates that he is, if anything, possibly TRing Mizuki (as well as me) because of the setup talk. Puff clearly did not notice or care about Celebloki's answer which shows to me that she was interacting as a means to the end of a TR because she knows from the start Celebloki is town.In post 86, Puffalicious wrote:Do you still think CrabApple is scummy after 3 pages?
Do you still think Shaddowez is scummy after 3 pages?
Do you still think Cobblerfone is scummy after 3 pages?In post 16, Thomith wrote: Been a long long while since I've played one of these so looking forward to getting going.
VOTE: Cobblerfone
Do you still think Mizuki is scummy after 3 pages?In post 26, Celebloki wrote: I'm constantly in a state of looking up the many acronyms used on the wiki.
VOTE: Mizuki
Crabs are people, clams are people.
Here's that first answer where he says he maybe also TRs Mizuki before Puff asks if Celebloki still scumreads MizukiIn post 83, Celebloki wrote:
Yeah the latter, it just seemed like a townie mindset to approach it from. I didn't feel it was just setup talk, but how town could maximize the use of it.In post 82, Thomith wrote:
May I ask why this makes you town read ssbm/Mizuki? Was it the way they went about it/responded to it, or just the fact they were trying to figure out how the setup could work/how hypoclaiming could get it to work in our favour?In post 80, Celebloki wrote: I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.
UNVOTE:
Feels to me like 91 where Puff states the original TR is in reaction to this answer. And it shows Celebloki's lack of understanding as well that Puff's wagon is not actually RVS anymore. Feels like by this time Puff should be understanding that based on the voters on their wagon's posting about 30 that it's not really RVS and if anything Puff should be picking up that Celebloki is maybe not paying the most attention to the wagon (not a town trait). I think scum!Puff is trying to latch on to a sympathetic townie here maybe.In post 87, Celebloki wrote: Well, my vote on Mizuki was an RVS vote referencing the crab talk. I removed my vote when I said I found the discussion between her and ssbm to have town vibes. If I'm honest I haven't really read anyone yet as particularly scummy, aside from the mechanic talk I haven't seen much outside of RVS. Your wagon seems to mostly be an RVS wagon.
VOTE: Puff (this is E2 with the CA vote moving to Thomith)P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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I thought gob hadn't posted yet as of my last post. Aside from the first one or two posts you made before you noted you forgot to sign, I assume any unsigned posts are gob's? I'll have to reread the full interactions between Adorable and Celebloki separately from gob and Celebloki.In post 116, Puffalicious wrote: @ssbm_Kyouko
Since you said you felt gobs tr on Celebloki was tmi then what did you think of his reaction bait?
The post of mine you quoted I don't understand what you're saying. You said you saw it odd I did not notice or wasn't paying attention you voted Celebloki and why should I react to your vote on him when I wasn't even town reading him? A null slot and your vote on him with little to no reason doesn't need any responding to when it has nothing to do with my slot. Celebloki is the one who got a vote from you and if he wants he can choose what action he takes.
The paragraph where you talk about #86, you said gob ignored the answer to #83. gob did not make #83 and it was me who made that post which was yesterday and I come back today and noticed that post. You are getting our heads mixed up.
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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UNVOTE:P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Spoiling most of the quote for brevity's sake.In post 108, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
I felt like the townread on Celebloki was too easily given and maybe even counterintuitive when I posted 93. It gives me the feeling of TMI. This answer does nothing to change my mind about that either.In post 99, Puffalicious wrote:
Seems towny based on their response to what I asked.In post 93, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: @Puff Why is Celebloki town
Spoiler:
I had thought all of the posts quoted in 108 above were by Adorable and actually was thinking only she had posted so far, even though on rereading everything I see I asked and was answered that gob made 30. Sorry gob if I referred to you as 'she', I was referring to the slot as they and to Adorable as she.
The TR is easily given and I do stand by that, but in light of recognizing there are 2 players posting here, I don't see anything counterintuitive anymore. Town can give easy TRs, that alone is not always scum-indicative. I thought what I was seeing was scum giving an easy TR and simultaneously countering their own reasoning for the TR, which is why I thought the TR was TMI.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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In post 116, Puffalicious wrote: @ssbm_Kyouko
Since you said you felt gobs tr on Celebloki was tmi then what did you think of his reaction bait?
The post of mine you quoted I don't understand what you're saying. You said you saw it odd I did not notice or wasn't paying attention you voted Celebloki and why should I react to your vote on him when I wasn't even town reading him? A null slot and your vote on him with little to no reason doesn't need any responding to when it has nothing to do with my slot. Celebloki is the one who got a vote from you and if he wants he can choose what action he takes.
The paragraph where you talk about #86, you said gob ignored the answer to #83. gob did not make #83 and it was me who made that post which was yesterday and I come back today and noticed that post. You are getting our heads mixed up.
- A
Assuming 30 was his reaction bait, I think it got the game moving and alone isn't really AI.
I think that when sorting a null slot it is beneficial to look at their reactions and feelings towards votes against them. Yes I had little to no reason posted in my vote, but it instead of reacting to it directly you might think, when asking why Celebloki TRs me, that you would mention my vote on him as it pertains to my slot. It's not necessary to mention but feels relevant to consider.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Neither. Unsnipping the quote and bolding what I was replying to. It still felt like a relevant question to answer after I'd clarified that I did mix up Puff's heads and retracted the conclusions I'd drawn as a result.In post 130, Mizuki wrote:
Not sure I'm wrapping my head correctly around this paragraph. Are you saying you think Puff's reaction to your vote against them was townie or that you're still null on Puff?In post 128, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Assuming 30 was his reaction bait, I think it got the game moving and alone isn't really AI.In post 116, Puffalicious wrote: @ssbm_Kyouko
Since you said you felt gobs tr on Celebloki was tmi then what did you think of his reaction bait?
The post of mine you quoted I don't understand what you're saying.You said you saw it odd I did not notice or wasn't paying attention you voted Celebloki and why should I react to your vote on him when I wasn't even town reading him? A null slot and your vote on him with little to no reason doesn't need any responding to when it has nothing to do with my slot. Celebloki is the one who got a vote from you and if he wants he can choose what action he takes.
The paragraph where you talk about #86, you said gob ignored the answer to #83. gob did not make #83 and it was me who made that post which was yesterday and I come back today and noticed that post. You are getting our heads mixed up.
- A
I think that when sorting a null slot it is beneficial to look at their reactions and feelings towards votes against them. Yes I had little to no reason posted in my vote, but it instead of reacting to it directly you might think, when asking why Celebloki TRs me, that you would mention my vote on him as it pertains to my slot. It's not necessary to mention but feels relevant to consider.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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86 felt low effort to me and is originally what drew my attention back to your slot. I ended up misreading Puff's ISO entirely as your (Adorable) ISO and then made my "hmmmm" post and decided to question you first before voting you for what I perceived to be an inconsistency in your reasoning, which actually was just you and gob having your own progressions on Celebloki.In post 141, Puffalicious wrote:
#86 was the post from gob that looked like a reaction bait when he said afterwards he was testing something and since I saw you say gobs read on Celebloki looked like tmi I wanted to know what was your thoughts on that post of his that looked like a reaction bait which was before his read on Celebloki.In post 128, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Assuming 30 was his reaction bait, I think it got the game moving and alone isn't really AI.In post 116, Puffalicious wrote: @ssbm_Kyouko
Since you said you felt gobs tr on Celebloki was tmi then what did you think of his reaction bait?
The post of mine you quoted I don't understand what you're saying. You said you saw it odd I did not notice or wasn't paying attention you voted Celebloki and why should I react to your vote on him when I wasn't even town reading him? A null slot and your vote on him with little to no reason doesn't need any responding to when it has nothing to do with my slot. Celebloki is the one who got a vote from you and if he wants he can choose what action he takes.
The paragraph where you talk about #86, you said gob ignored the answer to #83. gob did not make #83 and it was me who made that post which was yesterday and I come back today and noticed that post. You are getting our heads mixed up.
- A
I think that when sorting a null slot it is beneficial to look at their reactions and feelings towards votes against them. Yes I had little to no reason posted in my vote, but it instead of reacting to it directly you might think, when asking why Celebloki TRs me, that you would mention my vote on him as it pertains to my slot. It's not necessary to mention but feels relevant to consider.
I think I'm slowly starting to understand what you're saying here and it looks like you're wondering why I did not question you're vote on Celebloki instead of a town read on you. Town hunting and forming a town core and voting in the poe can be helpful. If you are town, I wanted to try to understand the town reads on you so that I could remove the player being town read from being in a poe.
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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I'm waiting longer on Gamma. I have a lot of history with her and feel confident in catching scum!Gamma eventually if I'm alive. Null/Town on her so far and is out of my poe for D1 sort of by default because of how I feel about my ability to catch her later on if she is scum. For something more concrete though, I'll say nothing of her's has pinged me so far.In post 149, Mizuki wrote: Kyouko, what are your takes on Gamma, Elements and Cobb rn?
I haven't noticed Elements/CA really yet. From memory I would say they are going with the flow mostly but haven't ISOed.
I've noticed a few people are buzzing about Cobbler and I've been more focused on Puff before Cobbler's most recent posts. I haven't formed much of an opinion on any of Elements, Cobbler, shaddowes, or Thomith yet as I've been phone posting and mostly focusing on Puff today. I have noticed all three have contributed more today so I'll need to read them with more focus now that I've straightened out my previous SR on Puff.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Actually I missed this from Elements - I like it. It's worthwhile to point it out. I had the same feeling about myself for a time - like I was "waiting" for more slots to post more. I like that Elements (CA at the time) notices this and points it out. Feels like an effort is being made.In post 95, CrabApple wrote: Why are so many people waiting to see the response to post 30?
Feels like an excuse not to play
VOTE: Thomith
I do agree these don't align, but I also think it's a semantic/reasonable difference. I will say things like "so many people" when the tone of the thread feels that way on skimming, and it may just be that a couple of people were loud about it, so in my mind it seems like a lot of people. When questioned about it later and drilling down I can then see my impression was lazy from skimming.In post 106, Mizuki wrote: "Why areso many people waitingto see the response to post 30?
"Based onThomith's commentabout their vote"
These two statements do not align. This is also, again, incredibly reductive of Thomith's posting so far.
I think Gamma said similar^P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I had a tell on her that worked pretty well for a while, but after I got it wrong in Radio Buzz I told her what it was and I think she is now more aware of it. If I remember right, she was one to overuse phrases like "honestly" or "genuinely" as scum and I could just tell the difference between when she did it as scum versus town.
Now there is no "secret" like there was for a while, now it's more that I have a lot of experience with her and I feel that if she does something out of order I would notice.
In my experience Gamma can get heated/emotional in a way that can easily be mistaken as scum AtE but it is NAI.
I've also been off site for a year or two so my experience may be outdated but like I said I feel prepared for scum!GammaP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Nyeh!P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Here are the numbers from an outsider's town POV on my vote (or anyone's random vote) since you keep getting them wrongIn post 188, Cobblerfone wrote: The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as town are 7/8 * 2/8 = 14/64
The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as mafia are 1/8 * 8/8 = 8/64
Town!Kyouko votes Town!Puff: 6/8 * 5/7 = 30/56.
Town!Kyouko votes scum!Puff: 6/8 * 2/7 = 12/56.
Scum!Kyouko: 2/8 = 14/56
Dont think breaking down the numbers on Puff's alignment are relevant if I'm scumP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I looked at 891 and saw Gamma replaced in, and if I recall correctly she replaced in fairly late in the game. Seems flawed to try to compare these two, and maybe lazy to only compare one game. When I do this sort of thing as town I go through pages of ego and open every game and compare every entrance first to determine if the player has an AI entrance and then to compare it to the entrance in this game. This comparison is shallow and holds no value to me, but I'm not going to hold everyone to my standard of meta-diving.
I do think this is something you can catch scum on more frequently than you might think and I don't think scum!Gamma avoids getting caught in this way, in fact I may have caught her this way before, but I also find Gamma's reactions in 193 and 197 +town for her.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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so in summary, Elements' heart is in the right place, but the execution is flawed and I remain unconvincedP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Because it's lazy and that feels more like town than scum. The alternative is that you're scum scrambling desperately to push Gamma for {arbitrary reasons} and I don't think that makes sense in the gamestate unless the scumteam is exactly {Cobbler, Elements}, and even then that's a stretch because in that case there are still like 3 low-activity slots that could be pressured to divert attention from Cobbler instead.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I think if mafia is not pressured they don't throw out an arbitrary scumread. You ask why not but I can't think of a reason "why." Why challenge the status quo as mafia if there is no pressure? This is why I address the possibility of the pressure being on scum!Elements' partner scum!Cobbler, and note that it's a stretch to say that is the case here. It doesn't make sense for scum!Elements to fake that read on Gamma. Maybe it's a poor attempt at distancing, but I don't get that vibe from Gamma's reaction.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Distancing from scum!Gamma to be clear. I think that was clear, but I want to make it so. In any case, nothing strongly points to scum!Elements when I read those posts in this gamestate.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I see, I'm not skilled enough to recognize lazy town for what it is.
I still don't agree there is any reason for scum!elements to be testing the waters on a Gamma wagon or trying to get towncred in this gamestate. Celebloki and shaddowes are still missing and Elements isn't under any pressure imo. Maybe she feels pressured by the comments on her entrance but I don't put stock in that as fake newness because she was posting on an alt, so I didn't consider that when evaluating the original read on Gamma. I would say it's much less likely to be due to that than it is to be due to town looking for something to bite in this gamestate.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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It doesn't take a genius to know that at the time of that post (and still now) the mood is that we're waiting for the less active slots Celebloki and Shaddowes to get more active because nothing so far is sticking now that the situation with Puff had shaken out. Sure there was talk about Cobblerfone and he was one of the less active posters earlier on but nothing was really happening with that wagon I think because the people not voting him were and still are more interested in what shaddowes and Celebloki will have to say on their return. This is what I mean by gamestate - we're all waiting. I am confident that is what is going on and I think most people would agree it is easy to see that is what is happening. I've been keeping up with the thread since the game started so I think the fact the game is 10 pages long is not really relevant. What is happening now has nothing to do with how long the game is.In post 245, Mizuki wrote:
The point has nothing to do with skill and everything to do with the fact that your confidence in your ability to read the gamestate (and the motivations behind Elements action) feels entirely unwarranted for only being 10 pages in the game, unless you're informed. The scenario's I presented in the previous post were just examples. The points you presented (and are still presenting) essentially amount to trying to read Elements mind, and you said them with such authority that it feels like you're trying to pass them off as though you actually can.In post 238, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: I see, I'm not skilled enough to recognize lazy town for what it is.
I still don't agree there is any reason for scum!elements to be testing the waters on a Gamma wagon or trying to get towncred in this gamestate. Celebloki and shaddowes are still missing and Elements isn't under any pressure imo. Maybe she feels pressured by the comments on her entrance but I don't put stock in that as fake newness because she was posting on an alt, so I didn't consider that when evaluating the original read on Gamma. I would say it's much less likely to be due to that than it is to be due to town looking for something to bite in this gamestate.
As for the motivations behind Elements' metadive, I didn't really care at first what they were because I wanted to verify it myself. So I clicked the link to that game and checked Gamma's ISO. I saw it was a replace-in and imo that's not comparable to the start of a game. If Gamma had replaced into this game, sure, go ahead and compare it to 891. But find some more examples of replace-ins and look at them because 2 is not a pattern. There's no better word for it, so I'll say it would be "stupid" of scum to make such a half-assed attempt at starting a push on Gamma in that gamestate (see above). I don't know Elements, but she doesn't strike me as stupid. Therefore, she must been lazy in that moment, because bottom line, that post was either stupid or lazy (with peace and love). Moving on - at this point I have established the post was lazy. I am left to decide if it was made by lazy town or by lazy scum. I ask myself, what would lazy scum be doing right now? The answer is that they would most likely be drifting in this gamestate. There's no pressure on Elements. There's no other reasonable conclusion if you accept the post was lazy and the game is waiting for Celebloki and shaddowes. That leaves lazy town unless we're in a very specific scenario where the only traction in an otherwise stalled game is a wagon on Cobblerfone which means, as I said before, unless the scumteam is specifically Elements and Cobblerfone, the post was made by lazytown!Elements. I'm inclined to accept this without further investigation because I'm of the opinion at least one scum is amongst {shaddowes, Celebloki} mostly due to the current state of the game, which means if I'm right about that the scumteam can't be Elements and Cobblerfone.
I asked you for specific scenarios where Elements would make that post as scum because I conceived only that she would do that if she were stupid or lazy. I don't see the value in making that post from a scum!Elements POV which is why I wanted those examples from you. I don't think any of the examples you provided are especially likely and that is why I remain of the opinion that Elements is town and was being lazy when she meta-dived Gamma.
I am not reading anyone's mind but I am putting myself in scum!Elements' POV to try to make sense of the post and when it doesn't make sense that really only leaves the town!Elements POV. Put yourself there and it makes sense in a stalled gamestate that a town player would like something to "chew on" as I've said before.
And I'm still confident in these reads - why shouldn't I be?P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Poorly is a nice way to put itIn post 239, Gamma Emerald wrote:I dunno if I agree, I think kyouko has responded poorly to pressure in the past, but that could have changed
P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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mineP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Elements is firm town for me, shaddowes I get the feeling is >rand scum purely through poe and I doubt the ego post is scummy but I'll lookP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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By itself no it's not but I remember being bothered that the promised random vote never came the next day - by the time I noticed that he was gone and there were other things to focus on thoughP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I was curious about this because I just remembered him basically going on V/LA when he got back but I see now why I missed his entry at the time he came back:In post 256, Thomith wrote:
Without double checking, were we not kind of out of RVS by the time he was back? At the least we were definitely into the phase of the day where we were on setup/hypoclaim discussion.In post 255, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: By itself no it's not but I remember being bothered that the promised random vote never came the next day - by the time I noticed that he was gone and there were other things to focus on thoughI was on my phone at the time he came in and was tabbing between the game thread and the setup wiki while replying to what Mizuki posted right before shaddowez returned. Then in the preview I just clicked post right away and didn't read what had been posted in the preview. I might have read it soon after but probably didn't think much of it at the time because I don't remember thinking anything of it. Looks like it was an RVS comment on crab apples, an EBWOP, a small mechanical observation about JK, and then 51 I already knew was incorrect if the hypoclaim is done correctly because of being able to claim 2/4/8/10 roles - there's very little room for mafia to get any info from that kind of claim before the PRs are flipped. I think the only thing they can get is "this player, if they are investigative, might have a result on me that doesn't hard guilty me because they tracked me to someone else" - even then there's no way to know if the player was making up the tracker result until they're flipped so it's a safe strat imo. So yeah I didn't notice anything material in those posts and then he went V/LA and at some point later I reread a little and was like "hey, he never voted"
P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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What do you mean by this - more important if "subsequent"In post 276, Cobblerfone wrote:
IMO that doesn't matter as much on its own. More important if subsequentIn post 243, Thomith wrote: Honestly, the reason why I'm a little confused is because the votes happened, but the reasoning for them had to be drawn out of Mizuki and Elements, rather than mentioned when the votes originally happened.
I could be reading too much into this though.
P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I like Imaginality's catch-up. I'd be curious to know what gob thinks of Imaginality's comments on 204.
VOTE: CobblerfoneP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Hypoclaiming plan, in summary, assuming a town PR is not dead by morning of D2:
Everyone in turn claims whether they have a hard guilty or not
If nobody has a hard guilty, everyone hypoclaims as though they are one of the roles on 2/4/8/10 on the clock in the setup. When hypoclaiming, make sure the result you are claiming could be legit, like if you're pretending to be on 2 dont claim as though a 7 is in the game because it's not possible from 2's POV. Every hypoclaim needs to be believable so it can't be used to POE the TPRs. Also dont hypoclaim a guilty because we're checking for guilties before the hypoclaim so that will also out you as a VT. It is very important that any TPR on 1/5/7/11 claims as though they are on 2/4/8/10 otherwise this would obviously expose you.
Benefits of claiming the guilty first before any hypoclaims is half the time the other TPR is one that can protect the investigative TPR that claimed, and by claiming guilty first, the protective has not outed themselves
Benefits of claiming on 2/4/8/10 is that it does not give scum any info about the setup before flips unless someone claims an inno on scum where scum knows a real PR would have a guilty. In this case it helps scum POE into PR kills/wagons
Benefit of 1/5/7/11 claiming as a 2/4/8/10 - 1/5/7/11s do not have the ability to hard guilty anyone and it is still possible to crumb your actual result/target by using the hypoclaim. For example a doctor could say they tracked X nowhere and after that doctor flips, we can probably assume X was doctored if it would make sense from flipped doctor's POV to guard X. I don't think that 1/5/7/11s necessarily should crumb what they did because oftentimes it won't amount to a hard guilty or hard inno.
This is all recapped on mobile without referencing the setup clock but I think it should be accurateP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I guess I can extend that to say if a VT and a 1/5/7/11 TPR are dead on D2 this still works, also I think it's still good if we eliminate scum toDay. Eliminating scum or scum PR toDay might allow for more ways to guilty overNight too, not sure without checking the setupP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Do itIn post 328, Elements wrote: i am very tempted to e-1 cobbP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I dont have a hard guilty. I drafted something overnight - this is a scenario where we should be hypoclaiming with a VT dead overnight - if there was no kill or a PR death it might have been best to stay quiet (aside from the have/don't have a guilty claims)P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I don't have a hard guilty - does anyone have a hard guilty before we move to hypoclaims?
These are the possible hypoclaims for 2/4/8/10, where the letters are variables like targets or actions:
2 (Tracker): X went nowhere, X visited Y, (X visited Y and Z is a hard guilty)
4 (Follower): X did nothing, X Jailkept, X Tracked, (X shot/killed is a hard guilty)
8 (Roleblocker): I roleblocked X
10 (Rolecop): X is vanilla, X is a doctor, X is a Roleblocker, (X is a rolecop is a hard guilty)
As a reminder, if you are on 1/5/7/11, you should make up a claim on 2/4/8/10. If you want to you can try to "sneak" your actual claim into the hypoclaim.
For example a Vanilla Cop who got a Vanilla result could claim to be a Rolecop that got a Vanilla result.
A jailkeeper could claim to have roleblocked their target.
Doctors and Babysitters can claim anything, just try not to out yourself.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Claimed no guilty:
Mizuki, Kyouko, Imaginality, Thomith
Have not claimed a guilty/no guilty:
Gamma, elements, PuffP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I don't agree that Imaginality could never be bussing here, but I didn't get that feeling yesterDay and I'd need to see evidence of that to go that way toDay. I think it makes sense scum tried to kill Enchant thinking he had a good shot at being PR given how he hammered a claimed PR.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I followed Imaginality and saw him JailkeepingP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Hypoclaim:^In post 377, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: I followed Imaginality and saw him Jailkeeping
(For ctrl+F searches)P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Also since these are hypoclaims I don't think we should ask questions like this - these are not necessarily real claims and should not be questioned as though they are real until a hard claim is made in the futureIn post 376, Puffalicious wrote:
If this is a true claim why did you roleblock Elements and not me? On day 1 you had me as scum and you had Elements as town.In post 374, imaginality wrote: Hypoclaim: I roleblocked Elements
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I see Imaginality you already answered but others should not pose those questions, and if they are posed they should not be answeredP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Guess I need to metadive Elements to see if her post about Gamma is something she would do as town but I tell ya it's not looking goodIn post 206, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: Because it's lazy and that feels more like town than scum. The alternative is that you're scum scrambling desperately to push Gamma for {arbitrary reasons} and I don't think that makes sense in the gamestate unless the scumteam is exactly {Cobbler, Elements}, and even then that's a stretch because in that case there are still like 3 low-activity slots that could be pressured to divert attention from Cobbler instead.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Just to be clear I am not currently scumreading Elements - until I metadive her to see if she normally makes low-effort metadives as town, I will continue to TR her. If i find that she normally puts more effort in as town, or that she has a pattern of making this kind of lazy meta push as scum, then the only scenario where she could have been scum is a lot more likely because cobb did flip scum. If you look back at when Mizuki was pushing me about my confidence in my read on Elements, you will note that the only scenario where scum!Elements makes sense is if the team is exactly {Cobb, Elements}. I don't think I survive the Night if this was the case but I'm not going to let that WIFOM deter me from meta diving Elements to verify what her townplay is like.P,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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Also this Gamma posting is scumpinging me, I'm pretty sure she has done this before - made a kill that "doesnt make sense for her to have made" and argued against it. I'll have to confirm that too. I won't have time for either metadive until tomorrowP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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So much bloop in other games
no bloop here
this makes me a bloop axolotlP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
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I've been through Elements' ISO in all of their completed games from this year.
When I sayevidence, what I'm looking for are any references to meta. I try to start with a broad approach and if I notice a specific pattern I will try to hone in on that, but here there was not one (related to Elements using meta at least, there was a NAI pattern I found).
large 245:
no evidence, low postcount
booneytoonz: town
243: nothing you've done is out of your scum range (I later learned that Elements said this about a player they know IRL when reading another game they played together in where that player was town and Elements was scum)
1519: counts every post (53) in the iso of theta and categorizes it
grand idea:
74 post count replace-in, no evidence
fruit mafia:
replaced out, low postcount, no evidence
normal 2302: scum
119 "I'm not a fan of meta partly because most of the time I get bored reading other people's past games"
169 - are you gonna meta me or? (in response to being SRed for making up reads D1 and then claiming she always does this)
272 - self-metas to defend self against Morning Tweet suspecting
935 - "im not going to meta myself"
Mini 2291: town
replaced out, low postcount, but something to note that I found to be accurate was this bit of self-meta:
255 - Elements is a self-professed wagon-follower on D1 (like they like to vote for large wagons to push through pretty much any elimination) She was a a follower in this game so makes sense she just wanted nights, but she says this about herself in another game iirc and from reading her ISOs from this year I found it to be accurate as both alignments she vote hops a lot on D1.
HMS Mutiny: scum - lots of vote hopping like they do as town (no meta evidence)
Open 872 (Guardians of the fortress): scum
116: dont have a long enough memory to remember scum/town games unless it's recent
I'd say that overall the results are inconclusive. I'll retract that it's unlikely for that lazy read to come from scum!Elements though, in light of the Cobblerfone flip. scum!Elements would have had motivation to try to move the wagon away from Cobb. If anything Elements' NAI pattern of being vote-hoppy on D1 might indicate they had knowledge Cobb would flip scum and were trying to avoid it. My impression from their ISOs is that they just want to kill anyone D1 when they are town or scum. I don't have context on any of their votes from those ISOs though - like idk if as town they have been known to flip-flop off of a close-to-elimination wagonP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
Falco Apologist | woo Magi-
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7685
- Joined: November 3, 2016
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: Middle Tennessee
If I remember correctly on Gamma I'm thinking of Owner's Market Blitz, maybe Mountain Dew Mafia, maybe Isekai uPick. She might not have been scum in mountain dew mafia. There's a plethora of unnamed Normals in my "My Games" text file wherein Gamma may have been scum, but I wouldn't recall those ones just from reading the game number and I don't track all the other players and their alignments/roles in my file - only my own. I'll take a peek at those ones. I should probably check Radio Buzz as well as I misread her in that game andfaked a guiltyP,Polarized!I,Intelligent!N,Never wrong!K,Kyouko!
Falco Apologist | woo Magi-
-
ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7685
- Joined: November 3, 2016
- Pronoun: She/Her
- Location: Middle Tennessee