Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[Alianna]

1.05

Votecount 1.05

Cobblerfone (2): Thomith, Mizuki
shaddowez (1): Gamma Emerald
Gamma Emerald (1): Cobblerfone

Not Voting (5): Puffalicious, shaddowez, Celebloki, ssbm_Kyouko, Elements

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-11-26 23:23:15).

[Thomith]

I don't like how ssbm_Kyouko misrepped mine and gob's posts. It will take a while for me to respond to this post and from my understanding gob has been baiting reactions.

- A

Reaction testing makes sense, I'm happy with this explanation for now.
To be honest with how the Puff slot in general responded to the questioning, and how they have been posting since, I do have a slight null leaning town read for now. Might look into how that wagon seemed to grow as there may be a potential of there being at least one scum pushing it if this slot is town as a kind of easy push reason (not answering).

Cobblerfone, could you elaborate on what you mean when you say you doubt Puff is mafia due to statistical reasons?

there's a 7/9 chance that the first big wagon of the day is town. I'm town and was the third vote. If Kyouko is town, she'd have a 2/9 chance of voting mafia on day one. If she were puff's partner, she could "randomly" vote informedly to distance, but considering their interactions so far I doubt they are mafia together unless Kyouko has a history of bussing

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

Why is kyouko scum individually?

That's part of the reason I unvoted Puff. I have a townread on Kyouko and if she's town she and I are both more likely to have randomly voted for town than for mafia. 2/9 * 2/9 = 4/81 chance of mafia

Why are you misrepresenting my reads?

These two quotes make me happy with my vote where it is for now. I don't really know how well or accurate these statistics can be, because when these things are influenced by peoples actions/differing motivations in how they are acting or voting, I think it fudges the accuracy of these statistics.
I'll need to reread Cobblerfone's ISO, because at a glance, specifically these quotes, feels like it could be scum acting like they are providing more information than they actually are.

[Mizuki]

-SNIP-

These two quotes make me happy with my vote where it is for now. I don't really know how well or accurate these statistics can be, because when these things are influenced by peoples actions/differing motivations in how they are acting or voting, I think it fudges the accuracy of these statistics.
I'll need to reread Cobblerfone's ISO, because at a glance, specifically these quotes, feels like it could be scum acting like they are providing more information than they actually are.

Not sure if we're mind-melding here or just sheeping what I've said on Cobb, lol.

[Thomith]

-SNIP-

These two quotes make me happy with my vote where it is for now. I don't really know how well or accurate these statistics can be, because when these things are influenced by peoples actions/differing motivations in how they are acting or voting, I think it fudges the accuracy of these statistics.
I'll need to reread Cobblerfone's ISO, because at a glance, specifically these quotes, feels like it could be scum acting like they are providing more information than they actually are.

Not sure if we're mind-melding here or just sheeping what I've said on Cobb, lol.

Genuinely didn't mean to sheep if I have similar reasoning to you , I genuinely just saw the statistics posts and really didn't like them at all.

[Thomith]

112 comes off as a player trying to sound analytical but the actual content is a very nothing-burger argument, and that type of play is more likely to come from scum here.

Oh just saw this, yeah I can see how it came across as me sheeping you then, but I missed this when I was skim reading, but yeah, I did get a similar vibe from those posts.

[Mizuki]

I don't think I would've cared if you were sheeping me but if people are seeing the same thing I am it makes me feel better about my read, which is both for good and for ill considering Confbias.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma if you were a dayvig who would you shoot here and why?

I wouldn’t fire yet because on D1 I tend to shoot players who seem to be trying to stir the pot, and I haven’t seen much of that. That probably wasn’t the answer you wanted but as someone who has rolled dayvig and git scum with it, I have a peculiar perspective.

Was this meant to go somewhere?

[Mizuki]

I was mostly trying to figure out where you stand right now in this game. Your answer was a big null for me, and I didn't feel like pushing the issue further.

[Mizuki]

Mostly I didn't follow up on it because I felt like if I did I'd just talk myself into voting you, something I can be unfortunately very good at doing.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think the issue there is I have a bit functional fixedness wrt dayvigs: I know what I do best with them so I’m less open to alternative options. A different question will likely open more doors in my mind.

[Gamma Emerald]

"Why are

so many people waiting

to see the response to post 30?
"Based on

Thomith's comment

about their vote"

These two statements do not align. This is also, again, incredibly reductive of Thomith's posting so far.

I have made many of these bad generalizations as town in the past fyi
It tends to be indicative of sone voices just nit being as present as they probably should be because the few louder ones are tuning those others out

[Mizuki]

"Why are

so many people waiting

to see the response to post 30?
"Based on

Thomith's comment

about their vote"

These two statements do not align. This is also, again, incredibly reductive of Thomith's posting so far.

I have made many of these bad generalizations as town in the past fyi
It tends to be indicative of sone voices just nit being as present as they probably should be because the few louder ones are tuning those others out

I'd argue Thomith wasn't really the most active voice at the time Elements made 95 though, nor was post 30 the most relevant post at that time she voted Thomith. Feels random to hyper-focus on Thomith there, but I can sort of agree that I probably see it coming from town more often than maf.

How do you feel about Thomith, Kyouko and Elements rn, Gamma?

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm admittedly sus of Gamma atm because she's active in another game but not here but that last post from Cobb hits all kinds of alarm bells. I'm keeping my vote on Cobb.

btw please don’t do this as I have executive dysfunction + anxiety issues regarding balancing of priorities and this compounds those problems

[Mizuki]

Ah, my b. Apologies.

[Gamma Emerald]

Kyouko I have light TR on mostly from vibes
Thomith I think is rather towny, I think there’s some good questions asked by him
Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.
VOTE: Elements
Still don’t have a lot of feelings about shaddowez so that vote feels stale

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko, what are your takes on Gamma, Elements and Cobb rn?

I'm waiting longer on Gamma. I have a lot of history with her and feel confident in catching scum!Gamma eventually if I'm alive. Null/Town on her so far and is out of my poe for D1 sort of by default because of how I feel about my ability to catch her later on if she is scum. For something more concrete though, I'll say nothing of her's has pinged me so far.

I haven't noticed Elements/CA really yet. From memory I would say they are going with the flow mostly but haven't ISOed.

I've noticed a few people are buzzing about Cobbler and I've been more focused on Puff before Cobbler's most recent posts. I haven't formed much of an opinion on any of Elements, Cobbler, shaddowes, or Thomith yet as I've been phone posting and mostly focusing on Puff today. I have noticed all three have contributed more today so I'll need to read them with more focus now that I've straightened out my previous SR on Puff.

[Thomith]

Kyouko I have light TR on mostly from vibes
Thomith I think is rather towny, I think there’s some good questions asked by him
Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.
VOTE: Elements
Still don’t have a lot of feelings about shaddowez so that vote feels stale

I feel like faking newness could more be attempting to hide being an alt rather than indicating any kind of alignment in this case?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why are so many people waiting to see the response to post 30?
Feels like an excuse not to play
VOTE: Thomith

Actually I missed this from Elements - I like it. It's worthwhile to point it out. I had the same feeling about myself for a time - like I was "waiting" for more slots to post more. I like that Elements (CA at the time) notices this and points it out. Feels like an effort is being made.

"Why are

so many people waiting

to see the response to post 30?
"Based on

Thomith's comment

about their vote"

These two statements do not align. This is also, again, incredibly reductive of Thomith's posting so far.

I do agree these don't align, but I also think it's a semantic/reasonable difference. I will say things like "so many people" when the tone of the thread feels that way on skimming, and it may just be that a couple of people were loud about it, so in my mind it seems like a lot of people. When questioned about it later and drilling down I can then see my impression was lazy from skimming.

I think Gamma said similar^

[Gamma Emerald]

Kyouko I have light TR on mostly from vibes
Thomith I think is rather towny, I think there’s some good questions asked by him
Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.
VOTE: Elements
Still don’t have a lot of feelings about shaddowez so that vote feels stale

I feel like faking newness could more be attempting to hide being an alt rather than indicating any kind of alignment in this case?

Still worth a poke imo

[Thomith]

I will say Elements vote on me was completely fair and did seen town motivated to try and get the game moving. Sure, they singled me out, but to be fair, I was the only person who was fully waiting on a response without analysing anything else further, which again to me makes the vote seem more town motivated vs opportunistic Mafia motivation.

Admittedly, as I said before, I had tunelled quite a bit on post 30, and wasnt really paying attention to much else.

[Puffalicious]

Kyouko I have light TR on mostly from vibes
Thomith I think is rather towny, I think there’s some good questions asked by him
Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.
VOTE: Elements
Still don’t have a lot of feelings about shaddowez so that vote feels stale

Some of Kyouko's posts from today when I was interacting with her where she was misundersood and I cleared up for her which head was posting it did give off town vibes.

Thomith has made some good questions and has a good tone and it made me wonder if he is good playing as scum which got me paranoid a bit and later on I plan on having a look through some of his completed town and completed scum games.

CrabApple's first 3 posts looked like they were goofing off in rvs and it didn't look like fake newness. Those 3 posts looked null.

- A

[Puffalicious]

I will say Elements vote on me was completely fair and did seen town motivated to try and get the game moving. Sure, they singled me out, but to be fair, I was the only person who was fully waiting on a response without analysing anything else further, which again to me makes the vote seem more town motivated vs opportunistic Mafia motivation.

Admittedly, as I said before, I had tunelled quite a bit on post 30, and wasnt really paying attention to much else.

I saw that post from Elements and it looked more like to me that was her thoughts and I didn't know it was an attempt at getting the game moving.

- A

[Puffalicious]

Kyouko, what are your takes on Gamma, Elements and Cobb rn?

I'm waiting longer on Gamma. I have a lot of history with her and feel confident in catching scum!Gamma eventually if I'm alive. Null/Town on her so far and is out of my poe for D1 sort of by default because of how I feel about my ability to catch her later on if she is scum. For something more concrete though, I'll say nothing of her's has pinged me so far.

I haven't noticed Elements/CA really yet. From memory I would say they are going with the flow mostly but haven't ISOed.

I've noticed a few people are buzzing about Cobbler and I've been more focused on Puff before Cobbler's most recent posts. I haven't formed much of an opinion on any of Elements, Cobbler, shaddowes, or Thomith yet as I've been phone posting and mostly focusing on Puff today. I have noticed all three have contributed more today so I'll need to read them with more focus now that I've straightened out my previous SR on Puff.

What's your secret on reading Gamma and is your read on Gamma from previous games always correct? I have spectated some of her completed games a few years ago back when I used to be active and I always had a hard time reading her.

- A

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I had a tell on her that worked pretty well for a while, but after I got it wrong in Radio Buzz I told her what it was and I think she is now more aware of it. If I remember right, she was one to overuse phrases like "honestly" or "genuinely" as scum and I could just tell the difference between when she did it as scum versus town.

Now there is no "secret" like there was for a while, now it's more that I have a lot of experience with her and I feel that if she does something out of order I would notice.

In my experience Gamma can get heated/emotional in a way that can easily be mistaken as scum AtE but it is NAI.

I've also been off site for a year or two so my experience may be outdated but like I said I feel prepared for scum!Gamma

[Mizuki]

I don't think Elements faking new-ness on her alt really means much alignment-wise, just different philosophies of alt-ing. I've made no attempt to hide that I'm an alt of another user, though I'd rather the identity of my main be secret for various reasons that go beyond the game of Mafia (something I'm paranoid I'm failing at, because I think I have a distinctive style of typing), but I've known several players who fake new-ness simply so people don't start with any biases against that account, as both alignments.

Think I agree with Thomith and Kyouko rn that Elements play has mostly been townie so far.