Open 338 Jungle Republic StefanBversion - FIN

[iamausername]

Question for all; would you rather lynch a wolf or a mafia today?

You're begining to make me think your doing this on purpose as scum.

What exactly do you mean by this? What is he 'doing on purpose'?

VOTE: TheOtherFiction

Why did you take so long to confirm?

[iamausername]

Speaking of dialogue, one question that comes up a lot, is policy on day 1 lurkers...though it might be problematic with this game due to its unusual late start and we still havnt got 100% numbers yet so we could be seeing a lot of early swaps.

some might say
that sunshine follows thunder
go and tell it to the man who cannot shine

some might say
this post is kind of scummy

UNVOTE: TheOtherFiction
VOTE: Sir Bastion

(Also "Speaking of dialogue" is a ridiculously bad segue, shame on you.)

[iamausername]

Speaking of dialogue, one question that comes up a lot, is policy on day 1 lurkers...though it might be problematic with this game due to its unusual late start and we still havnt got 100% numbers yet so we could be seeing a lot of early swaps.

some might say
that sunshine follows thunder
go and tell it to the man who cannot shine

some might say
this post is kind of scummy

UNVOTE: TheOtherFiction
VOTE: Sir Bastion

(Also "Speaking of dialogue" is a ridiculously bad segue, shame on you.)

No takers? OK. Let me explain.

Why is Sir Bastion bringing up the idea of a policy lynch on lurkers here?
Was anybody else talking about lynching lurkers? No. Does Sir Bastion have any opinion to offer on the subject? No. All he has to say is "sometimes people discuss this".

Seems like he's trying to float the idea forward to see how people take it, but without actually committing himself to any opinion, so there's plausible deniability if this is a town that is not amenable to the idea. I don't see why a town player would post something like this.

---

Seemingly random question; Rhinox, how many times have you played with Yos before?

I'm also getting bad vibes from Cobblerfone that I am so far unable to pin down. I'll keep you posted.

[iamausername]

I don't understand why TheOtherFiction seems to be the only game in town right now. I don't have an overwhelmingly strong town read on him, but this level of complacency does not make me comfortable. Let's try this instead.

UNVOTE: Sir Bastion
VOTE: Cobblerfone

His vote on TOF seems to be completely at odds with... pretty much every other post he's made. Not only has he shown no indication that he finds TOF scummy, besides the vote, he actually seems to be exclusively attacking other people on the same wagon that he is on. Cognitive dissonance all up the friggin' walls here.

[iamausername]

His vote on TOF seems to be completely at odds with... pretty much every other post he's made. Not only has he shown no indication that he finds TOF scummy, besides the vote, he actually seems to be exclusively attacking other people on the same wagon that he is on. Cognitive dissonance all up the friggin' walls here.

I'm sorry, were you unaware that there were two scum teams?

No.

Why are you voting TOF?

[iamausername]

If the seer has a guilty, they should go ahead and claim.

Pretty sure hypocopping is a good idea here if they don't.

[iamausername]

Firstly I don't think the seer should claim unless he has a guilty on a wolf. Claiming for a mafia while helpful in keeping the numbers in our favor. It will though throw away our best weapon against the wolves.

Seer doesn't get guilties on mafia, so...

(So it's highly unlikely that Sir Bastion is a wolf, since this almost certainly would have come up when they were discussing who to kill last night)

Hypocopping sounds like giving a reads list right? If so I was in the middle of doing so anyway.

Not really, no.

Everybody says "X is not a werewolf". The seer gives their actual result, everybody else makes one up.

The upside is that we'll know the seer's result even if they're killed before they claim. The downside is that one or two people will probably pick a wolf for their hypoclaim, so the wolves will have a slightly smaller pool of possible seers to choose from.

I think the benefits outweigh the cost, but it's debatable. Obviously, the whole thing is moot if the seer has a guilty result.

[iamausername]

The flaw is what if he investigated crypto last night?

I hadn't considered that, but there's no reason he couldn't say "If I am seer, I investiagted crypto". But it's a good thing to have pointed out, because now everyone will be aware that that is a possibility if we do hypocop.

I'd argue he's not likely to be mafia either since he'd have probably been corrected by his partners, and he's also not likely to be seer for obvious reasons, so...

I guess so, yeah. I think it's marginally less likely to have come up in mafia talk, because they have no kill to discuss, but still pretty likely. Yeah, he's probably town.

(I had realised that this also made him obv not-seer, but I didn't want to point that out, just in case we have particularly dense wolves.)

[iamausername]

As you may be aware if you ever look at Mafia Discussion, I'm going to be on extremely limited access this weekend and all of next week.

Luckily, Elmo has kindly agreed to temporarily replace me for that period. word of mod is that I need to clear this with the rest of the playerlist first, so, uh... if anyone has a problem with this and would rather my player slot was absent from the game for 10 days, then speak now or forever hold your peace. Either way, this will be my last post here for a while.

[iamausername]

Hey all, I'm back. Thanks again to Elmo for filling in. Doesn't look like a whole lot has happened while I was away.

Let's see now, there are 9 players remaining besides myself, and only 4 of them are town. Seems like it wouldn't be a bad idea to try for more of a townhunting approach here.

Sir Bastion is the most obviously town, because of his mistake about the seer being able to investigate both types of scum.

I've had generally good feelings about Rhinox all game, and in particular Post 262 looks very town to me. That and his suspicions about Yos; his explanation here:

It just seems like the motivation behind your posts is to make you *appear* to be helpful and non-threatening.

The first few times I played with Yos, I got the same kind of feeling all the time, and because I happened to be right in quite a few of them, it took me a while to realise that it didn't actually have any correlation with his alignment. So it makes a lot of sense to me that Rhinox would think this if he's never played with Yos before.

Hiraki is also probably town. His presumptions about the persuasive power of his utterly incoherent wall post are mind bogglingly misguided, but I really feel like there is genuine passion there.

Town spot #4 remains uncertain.

---

Now, I don't have any particular problem with the fitz wagon, but still I'd prefer a funkybike lynch.

I've referenced what Yos said: in a game with this many scum, it gets lurky, because scum like to lurk and have no motivation to move the game forward. I'd think that means we're more likely to find scum amongst lurkers, and he's been the worst offender. Obviously given he's done nothing I can't point to anything he's done to exonerate or condemn him; that's the problem.

This is mostly on point, but even in the very little that funkybike has posted, I'd say there are scummy elements.

For the first time ever, I think that Yos is actually making sense. Does that mean that he's town? No.

This strikes me as off; he's too quick to clarify that agreeing with Yos does not make Yos town. He's not saying that he actually thinks Yos is scum, he's just saying "I won't be contradicting myself if I later decide to attack Yos, OK?" I don't see any reason why a town player would say this.

The pressure is clearly on, so i might as well go ahead and

claim VT

right here.

The fact that he says "I claim VT" as opposed to "I am VT" implies that the claim is not truthful. Some people use the 'claim' wording either way regardless of this fact, but funky is not one of them.

It may not seem like anything earth-shattering, but proportionate to the miniscule quantity of posts I think it's extremely significant. And the only argument I've seen presented against lynching him (namely, that there was no counterwagon springing up) has now been utterly invalidated.

So basically, everybody should really

UNVOTE: havingfitz
and
VOTE: funkybike

[iamausername]

Hiraki should be voting fitz, but at least he's made his preference clear.

TOF, it's 15 hours to deadline, there are two people who have any realistic chance of being lynched. You need to pick one, and you need to do it now.

[iamausername]

Can we also consider the hypocopping suggestion again or is it too late to be any use?

Pretty much, yeah. If the seer dies tonight, there's basically no chance of a town win, so.

But then, the wolves really need to be aiming for mafia and not the seer at this point, so helping them narrow down who the seer is might actually be a good thing?

I don't know... things get really weird when town is a minority. I don't see how hypocopping would hurt, but it's entirely possible that the best move would be for the seer to just claim outright. Maybe someone else can run the numbers on that. Or maybe not, since EVERYONE ELSE IS SCUM (nearly).

[iamausername]

Hm. If we lynch mafia, and wolves kill the seer, it'd be 2:2:2. Lynching either town or mafia in that situation would be a wolf win, so we'd be aiming for wolves, and we'd have seer results + mafia connections to help us out. Assuming we succeeded, it'd be 2:1:2, and the wolves would have to kill a mafia. If they succeed, it's 2:1:1, and we'd need to lynch to the wolf, then the mafia. So I guess town can win even if the seer is killed tonight, in theory.

If, on the other hand, the wolves killed a mafia instead of the seer, it'd be 3:2:1. Again, we'd have to lynch a wolf, but we'd have an extra seer result to help on that front. So yeah, I guess the first situation would be more desirable to the wolves. Hypocop gives us the same advantages as seer claiming here, but means the wolves can't get a definite seer kill, so with a mafia lynch today, hypocop is definitely best.

Now, if we lynch a wolf, it's 3:1:3, wolf must kill mafia to prevent their victory. Then it'd be 3:1:2, with another seer result. We could lynch wolf, mafia, mafia for the win OR lynch mafia. That'd make 3:1:1, wolf gonna kill the seer there making 2:1:1. Lynch wolf, then mafia. But if the seer hasn't claimed yet, wolf might miss the seer, making mucho +EV for town, especially if they manage to take out the mafia for us instead. So hypocop also maybe better for this situation.

If we somehow manage to lynch ANOTHER townie today, we're totally screwed, so let's not do that. If the seer has a guilty, they should claim. If not, hypocop. Pretty sure that's the best strategy.

Then we lynch the guilty result, obv, or if not, lynch funkybike, because there is just no way that he is town.

[iamausername]

I'm totally convinced that you're town now through this display of ignorance of game mechanics. Totally believable, man. Good job.

[iamausername]

So wait, you're saying there are multiple scum factions in this game? What gives you that idea? Sounds like somebody's got inside information to me.

FOS: funkybike

[iamausername]

not sure what i'm looking for here. all i see is a player list.

[iamausername]

We're waiting for scooby and Primate to verify that they are not seers with guilty results (I assume nobody else is, since they've all posted without claiming).

Then we're hypocopping, then we're lynching funkybike.

Problem?

[iamausername]

and your second result?

[iamausername]

Fun facts for everyone to remember when hypocopping:

- There have been two nights
- Your results need not be on still living players
- Just generally try to make it at least vaguely plausible that you would have made the investigations you are claiming

Have fun and happy hypocopping, all.

Hiraki is not a wolf! Primate is not a wolf!

[iamausername]

Don't worry, everybody already knew you aren't the seer from back when you thought he could find mafia.

[iamausername]

what's all this nonsense about not lynching wolves? whatever happens, we're going to need them to kill mafia for us at some point. that's not a reason to avoid lynching them today.

as if there's any way to tell which particular brand of scum anyone is when none of them have died yet anyway.

VOTE: funkybike

[iamausername]

Simple question; if funkybike is such an easy lynch, why isn't he dead yet? If he was town, I'm sure the wolves would assume he was mafia, the mafia would assume he was wolf, and the other townies would assume he was some kind of scum, and I'm pretty sure that would add up to funkybike lynched in a matter of minutes. The fact that he somehow hasn't been lynched when he is the "easy target" and there are more scum than town is just further proof that he is not town, as if any more were needed.

As for is it better to lynch mafia or wolf today - I think after contemplating it for the last hour or so I'm of the opinion it doesn't really matterm with still a slight preference on lynching mafia in order to keep our fate in our own hands.

There is no way to keep our fate in our own hands. If we lynch mafia today and wolves kill a townie, it's 2:2:2. At that point, lynching anything but a wolf hands them the game, and then the wolves killing anything but a mafia hands

them

the game. We cannot possibly win without the wolves killing mafia (or maybe skipping a kill) at some point.

Having said all that, I don't even agree that funky is more likely wolf than mafia. The mafia have more chance of resisting a lynch against one of their own today, as is clearly happening with funky, and I think the Hiraki kill suggests he is not a wolf too. I think the most likely explanation for that one is that they though he was the seer with an innocent on funky, based on his insistent defence of funky for no apparent reason. And obviously, they wouldn't think that if funky was a wolf.

[iamausername]

I think what Rhinox means is keep it in the day game.

I KNOW

And he's right there. I too feel more comfortable deciding this during the day than letting johnny wolf do it at night.

WE CAN'T

[iamausername]

Other wagons are starting now, but there was a huge push on FB at daybreak.

which didn't result in his lynch because...?

(i'll give you a clue; the answer is not 'he is town'.)

[iamausername]

We must lynch a wolf today, or they win.
Wolf must then kill mafia, or

they

win.
Then we have to lynch the other wolf, and then the remaining mafia.

I've been thinking about the best way to play this, and I think this is it: I am the seer. I have a guilty result. But I'm not going to say who it is until everybody has the chance to counterclaim me.

Clearly, if I claimed my guilty, it would be in their interest to counterclaim. But if the wolves don't know which one of them I've caught, they risk outing their entire team if the wrong one claims. If they don't take the risk, nobody counters, and we have a guaranteed wolf lynch. If they take the risk and get it wrong, we have both wolves caught.

Of course, if they take the risk and get it right, then it may entirely look like I am a wolf who planned to do this and claim to have a guilty on the real seer. We'll cross that bridge if we have to.

Everyone should now post and say nothing but "I am not the seer", unless they're a wolf who feels like taking the gamble.

So, wolves, what do you say? You feeling lucky, punks?

[iamausername]

I am not the Seer

BUT

neither are you.

I am pretty confident that you and TOF are the remaining mafia and this is a mafia gamble.

Every outcome of this gamble benefits the mafia and only one benefits the town. (that one being that you hit a wolf and they go for you tonight) But you are blatantly goading the real seer to come out and challange you by your entire post ignoring the mafia gamble. You painted yourself up as a possible wolf just so the real seer jumps at you and reveals himself to the real wolves. And the odds of claiming on a real wolf would increase.

And I know your not the seer because you are the one who put forward the hypocopping in the first place and there is no way from how you have been playing that you are WIFOM enough to trust in the wolves not killing the person who suggested hypocopping in the hope he was the seer. If you were on that level of WIFOM you would not have stayed on the funkybike wagon so much you would played closer to the level of your replacement Elmo did which was push outside the box, but you've been playing it safe.

I also know it was you rhinox and TOF that are scum because of your hypo results. The three of you dont cross at all. Every other player names someone in common with someone else but the three of you have no crossing over. Clearly you started the hypocopping suggestion on day 2 which Rhinox encouraged and the three of you picked different people so that regardless of who gets lynched there is a high chance one of you would be in the clear to claim seer if needed (if a wolf had been caught between day 2 and now it could have wiped out only 1 of the three of you.

just so everyone can see it firsthand:

IAMUSERNAME SAID:

Hiraki is not a wolf! Primate is not a wolf!

RHINOX said:

yos is not a wolf.
TOF is not a wolf.

TOF said

If I am Seer, Sir B is not a wolf and Rhinnox is not a wolf.

But like I said I am not stopping this.

I've run the alternatives through my head over and over, unless the real seer counter claims with a genuine answer you have the best odds of catching a wolf.

THE REAL SEER DO NOT COUNTER CLAIM UNLESS YOU HAVE A GUILTY!!!

otherwise you will hand the game to the mafia if the gamble works.

lol

[iamausername]

if we don't lynch a wolf today, the mafia lose too

the mafia have absolutely no reason to claim seer, it does not benefit them in any way

hurry up scooby

[iamausername]

so my nefarious plan is to guess who a wolf is, claim to be the seer with a guilty on that wolf so he gets lynched, and then just hope the real seer doesn't counterclaim for some reason?

that's what you're going with?

[iamausername]

Cool.

Yos is a wolf, and we shall be lynching him today, but first, we should give him the opportunity to share his thoughts on who his partner should be killing tonight.

[iamausername]

so my nefarious plan is to guess who a wolf is, claim to be the seer with a guilty on that wolf so he gets lynched, and then just hope the real seer doesn't counterclaim for some reason?

How does it hurt the mafia if the real seer counterclaims?

Because everybody knows that one or the other of the claimed seers is scum, and everyone will assume the lying one is a wolf because IT MAKES NO SENSE FOR MAFIA TO CLAIM SEER, and therefore one of the claimed seers will probably be lynched, which is a lose either way for mafia because neither of them are wolves.

Why are you still arguing with facts. I am the seer. If I was not the seer, the real seer would tell you. Nobody has told you, because nobody else is the seer, because I am the seer.

If you are the townie and we lose this game because you continue believing that there is a phantom seer refusing to counterclaim lying scum for no fucking reason tomorrow I will literally track you down and punch you in the nads. There is one (1) seer in this game. There is one (1) person who has claimed to be the seer. It is not difficult to find the seer in that situation.

P.S. Yos, if you don't feel like dropping some knowledge for fear of outing your partner, could you let us know so we don't sit around waiting for godot. Thanks.

[iamausername]

Fair enough.

VOTE: Yosarian2

[iamausername]

confirming that I am not faking a guilty and you all may now proceed with lynching Yos

[iamausername]

That means that if we lynch the other wolf today, town loses.

True.

If mafia is lynched today, then wolf can kill making it a three way endgame that town loses, or the game could be a tie.

Nope. Mafia wins if a day starts with one member of each faction.

All the wolf has done here is provided me with an extra night to seek him out. The only way wolf can win at this point is if we lynch mafia today, he kills mafia tonight AND I investigate that same mafia. In any other situation, either the mafia win, or we're in an endgame where I know exactly who the wolf is.

So, I have another innocent, but I'm not revealing it today because it might influence the wolf's kill in a negative way for us, and he still can't afford to kill me so I'll definitely be around to reveal it assuming there is a tomorrow.

Now let's get to hunting those mafia.

[iamausername]

No. Of the two I haven't checked, one is definitely the wolf, who we don't want to lynch today, and the other might be the townie.

Of the two I have checked, at least one is definitely mafia, maybe both.

If we're going to limit our lynch to one of those groups today, it would definitely be the people I

have

checked, not the ones I haven't. But right now, I don't want to limit the pool at all. Forget about my results for the moment, and just try to hunt mafia.

[iamausername]

Primate/Sir Bastion is definitely not the mafia team.

For one, they could hop onto scooby's hasty vote and win, and there's no sign of that. And, even assuming they hadn't planned out a time to get online and hammer together in this situation, Sir B would have no motivation to point out scooby's error there.

Also think it's pretty unlikely that scooby is bussing his mafia partner. So I don't think it's scooby/TOF

Which means there is exactly one mafia in each of those pairs.

Any thoughts?

[iamausername]

ESSAY QUESTION (for all but Primate)

Bearing in mind the following facts:

a) you know that there are five roles remaining in this game: one seer, one townie, one wolf and two mafia.
b) you know that I am the seer.
c) you are, or at least would like me to believe that you are, the townie.
d) you know from my investigation that Primate is not the wolf.
e) you know that we are aiming to lynch mafia today.

please explain, in 500 words or fewer, why you are NOT voting for Primate right now.

[iamausername]

I'm still here.