Open 591: C9++, The Lunatic Ayslum (Game Over: Town Win!)

[RedCoyote]

/confirm... busy with work stuff. I was supposed to just be on call but it's turning out to be 12 hour days... :/

[RedCoyote]

Spoiler: Wall of quotes

Also I'm in BEAUTIFUL Europe, land of the only handsome men (like me) on Earth.

'Course... It's weird that you'd say Europe and not your country or city.

---

Because you changed your vote once, and then twice for no reason.

Oh, I don't buy what you're selling.

---

My vote on Alchemist was also semi-serious. I'd like a response to the second part. Usually offering some sort of reason, even if useless, is better for town.

Please. I can't stand it when people unironically say words like "semi-serious", "kinda random" "I'm a little pregnant". Be bold, friend. When I see a word like semi-serious I think you're leaving the door open to go in either direction with your true intentions.

---

I think I have played with only 2 of you before- Red Coyote and Lucky2u.

Yeah, and as I recall you flaked.

---

Also VOTE: curiouskarmadog. I'm not seeing his wagon on random.

I don't like this vote. This is exactly what I was referring to with my criticism of his Alchemist vote explanation. Despite it being a "semi-serious" vote, he completely moves in another direction without addressing why ckd is a better vote than Alchemist.

---

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

Were you not informed that you should confirm in-thread?

Eh, don't really like this vote. The question is too lawyer-y, too. Of course he was informed.

If anything, it should be a town-tell to be late in confirming when it's a confirm in thread game. Scum are likely going to be given pre-game access to a PT.

---

Before I catch up, this post is horrible.

Agreed. Something is off about Otolia. He's over-enthusiastic.

---

I'm an obvious target because of my vote hopping, and he's taking full advantage of this to make a case against me without questioning whether it's actually a scumtell. What merit does vote hopping this early in the game have to scum that it doesn't have to town? What would make scum more inclined to vote hop than town? I don't know, and I don't think Collatz knows either. I think he's just looking for an easy way to seem pro-town.

Much better post. I like this DLA.

---

This and his follow up are pure nonsense. One can assume that you didn't read your PM's fully if you didn't know to confirm in thread. He's either getting uber defensive at a perceived accusation or trying to create scum tells out of thin air.

I completely disagree. Why do you think it's fine for Otolia to speak on behalf of BBT before BBT could respond to DLA?

---

what part are you not seeing?

my vote page 2 on a wagon "if all things are constant"? Do you think all things will stay constant today?

Also this.

Good to play with you again, ckd. It's been a while.

---

But I also can't see Town switching their vote.

What do you mean? DLA explained it pretty clearly in 70. I can accept you disagreeing with him, but it's like you didn't even acknowledge it.

That being said, reading this post you come across more like a stubborn townie to me than scum, so take that how you will.

---

I don't like policy lynches on people day one though.

And just where are you seeing any advocacy of a policy lynch? You seem to be reading wayyy too much into this. I wouldn't even be so critical of this except for the fact that you abandoned your "semi-serious" vote in favor of ckd. Presumably you're fully vested in this vote now.

I'm not going to speak for ckd, but I saw his vote as a placeholder and an attempt to draw attention as to why he's going to be more critical of randomidget in this game based on meta. Nothing more. He even went out of his way to explain it as such.

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Am I the only one who finds this to be suspiscous?

Not particularly, no. Even if I did, however, I'm satisfied with DLA's 70. I don't think you've taken the time to fairly respond to that post.

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so are you voting me because I am douchey or because you think I am scum?

I'm anxious to see a response to this. randomidget needs to explain his vote or move it. As does Otolia and Reubus.

---

People who aren't voting right now, why ?

I'm just getting around to reading the thread. Why are you voting mnemomic at this point in the game?

---

Out of the kindness of my heart I've fixed that horrific spelling mistake. Am I not a generous God?

All due respect, I'd rather you not micromanage the posts. By all means, correct broken tags or delete stuff that is rule-breaking, but stuff like this is distracting at best.

---

Is the implication that as the IC I can decide to not vote but other players have to so that they show their motives? Clearly since the only confirmed town player is doing something, the behavior can't be seen as too suspicious.

I think he noted exactly that when he said "(minus IC that is)".

---

I've like Dark's attack. I've liked Collatz defense. I wouldn't say either was scum. I wouldn't townread, but they definitely wouldn't earn my vote.

Agreed.

VOTE: Marcrell

I'm most suspicious of Marcrell going into this game, and I'd like to encourage others to join me on this wagon. I'll give y'all a few key points as to why.

1) In post 53, he votes ckd because he doesn't "see" ckd's vote. Presumably this means he doesn't agree with the vote, but he doesn't take the time to explain why. Further, he abandons his "semi-serious" vote on Alchemist and has yet to address him since. Now, I disagree with his ckd vote on principle, but I'd be open to hearing his opinion as to why it's a better vote than the one on Alchemist (or voting someone else), but he doesn't give us that.
2) I see a chainsaw defense of Otolia in post 85. Marcrell hasn't talked about Otolia at all this game, and yet he's coming to his defense in what he sees as BBT's nonsensical and defensive posturing. Additionally, this is the strongest he's come down on any player thus far, so it seems to me like this would be a better spot for his vote than ckd is. This speaks even more to the ckd vote not being genuine.
3) The use of the term "policy lynch" in post 92 seems like a strawman. I didn't see ckd advocate for a policy lynch. To be sure, ckd's vote is a policy vote, but he made it clear his vote was riding on randomidget until something better came along. While I can see someone disliking that position, I hardly see it as grounds for voting. The fact that Marcrell felt the need to make a strawman and blow ckd's vote out of proportion is yucky to me.
4) Although I agree with the sentiment behind posts 109, 150 and 153, they all kind of say the same thing. Marcrell isn't really adding anything to the conversation like every other active player is (sans mnemonic).

[RedCoyote]

Pardon any typos in my quote responses. I didn't spellcheck them, they were just immediate reactions I had toward reading the game. You don't even really have to read that wall if you don't want to.

[RedCoyote]

How odd, haha. I guess it's more a Euro thing.

I do seem to recall you, but I actually don't remember the game we were in. I could probably go find it... I used to be better about remembering everyone, but the years keep adding up!

[RedCoyote]

Oh, dear. Yes, that wouldn't have scored any points with me.

But we have a fresh start now.



You can also join me on the Marcrell wagon if you want to be on my good side.

This is Marcrell's face when he reads my post.

But it's better than

For him, at least!

- a smiley poem

[RedCoyote]

Good to see you again RC. I looked over the game we met in semi-recently cause I swear I thought your avatar was so scummy that you couldn't possibly be scum. You won the game... ....barely...

Either way, fun to see you again.

Ditto. Additionally, I feel very comfortable with you as town in this game, so it's doubly good to play with you today.

---

You're doing the same thing that I am. That's my peace offering, don't waste it.

:/

I'm having a hard time following Otolia's attack against DLA in general. Like Lucky/ckd have implied, even the foundation of DLA "grasping at straws" seems inaccurate to me. That is not how I would characterize DLA's play this game. If anything, DLA seems like the most open-minded player in the game thus far.

---

See those convenient post numbers? You say I'm deflecting post number 168 in post 167? Yeah. Right.

DLA is right here, and it speaks to Otolia trying to spin an earlier attack to refer to something completely after the fact. This is straight out dishonest.

---

OBVIOUSLY MEANS THAT IT'S SOMETHING YOU HAVEN'T ANSWERED BUT THEN YOU DID WHILE I WAS WRITING MY POST.

It's not obvious to me. Further, that excuse is pretty flimsy in 2015 as we are now alerted of new posts before we submit any posts ourselves.

---

The first is that I'm his surest Townread. Usually people who haven't played with me before null or lean-scum on me, or at best mildly townread me. It's usually scum or people I've played with before that put me as a top townread this early. Even I don't think my posts have been that Towny so far, so I want to know some specifics of what you like about my 131 (I'll accept the tone read as just that, but citing a post warrants specifics).

This is pretty lame, Alchemist. I respect you wanting Reubus to flesh that out more, but I don't know how you can jump to a vote based on this.

Let me put it another way, I think you're jumping the gun and not engaging Reubus enough. This vote feels less like you are trying to scumhunt and more like you are just trying to get a vote out there for it's own sake.

---

This is not something that a town player should say. You are not in a sales negotiation.

This is a good talking point, it even made me chuckle, but I respectfully disagree. Though I am not really liking Otolia's argument against DLA, nor am I liking his spin, I can relate to the idea of trying to strike a balance with another player that you think is town misreading you.

That said, Otolia gave us typical song and dance when Alchemist asked him straight up if he was town or scumreading DLA, so eh.

---

As for the Otolia vs DarkLightA
I was leaning Otilia town but regarding the aggressive nature of his defence I need to rethink that now.
But seriously "peace offering"? Getting into grudges never seemed to pay off for me.
I don't feel right townreading DarkLight anymore. He was exploring avenues for a place to put his vote, though through this post Otolia did make a good point here I'm not as sure if DL has a pro-town motive anymore, then again I wasn't very sure at all to begin with.

This feels weak. I wonder if I am getting too extreme or what, but a lot of posts I'm reading from Otolia, Reubus and Marcrell strike me as really weak.

I can respect trying to figure out a game, but quit being so scared to say if something is townie/scummy. All I got from this bundle of mush is that "DLA could be town or scum, but Otolia could be town or scum... who knows!"

---

Policy lynches on people with no avatars every game. I despise the very idea of lynching on previous games(or any other matter besides in thread things, unless it's some sort of meta claim), and so I voted.

Based on this argument, may I assume that you think any time someone votes another player, they want them lynched? If yes, then I want you to justify your votes in this game. If no, then why isn't ckd afforded the same luxury as every other player in this game (namely, the ability to vote someone while not necessarily wanting to lynch them on the spot)?

I pointed out the post is completely bonkers. Makes no sense. Otalia made a logical guess. Blue starts freaking out.

These are all opinions... Look, why is it okay for Otolia to speak on BBT's behalf before BBT has a chance to speak for himself?

Resting your vote somewhere because there's no better option doesn't make it any less of a policy lynch.

And now is your turn to show me where ckd advocated lynching randomidget rather than drawing attention to a previous game. You're conflating the idea of policy votes and policy lynches in a dishonest way.

---

I'm content with Llama's strategy in 204. I suspect he'd know more than any of us the best way to tackle the game from a claim standpoint. If anyone objects, they should speak up.

[RedCoyote]

Also, Reubus, why aren't you voting? Especially for someone that said,

why haven't [people who aren't voting] got around to [voting]?

[RedCoyote]

I don't understand your question. My analysis of myself? I am town.

[RedCoyote]

which could extend to everyone not voting/being still in RVS as I mentioned in #118 which was 2 days ago.

You know, you're in this group, brother.

[RedCoyote]

I'm not trying to be a dick. Even that allegation I don't really understand. I've try to be very forthright about all my opinions, especially when I am town. Could you be more specific? Do you just want me to do a summary for you?

At the moment, I think Marcrell needs a ton more attention paid to him.
As to you and DLA, I don't find your arguments compelling and have a comfortable townread on DLA at the moment.
As to Collatz, I suspect he's town although I disagree with the direction he's going with his reads.
As to ckd and BBT, I liked their contributions so far and am anxious to hear more from them. I'd give ckd a thumbs up for town, BBT is way too early to call.
As to Reubus, I think he's misleading and potentially a good candidate for lynching today.

Not a lot to say about randomidget, mnemonic, Llama and Alchemist. Alchemist, random and mnemonic need to contribute more. Llama just joined us.

I've addressed all of these things in one way or another in my posts, so I dispute the idea that some of my analysis is not "up to par with the rest". What specifically am I glossing over?

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP:

tried

[RedCoyote]

BBT, can you elaborate on your 243? As in what you mean by it and what message you're trying to convey to either randomidget or the game as a whole or both?

I'm happy with Llama's start, but I'm not nearly as anti-Otolia lynch as he is. I do not think Otolia is our best lynch though. I'm not prepared to jump in front of this wagon, but I think there are better candidates out there. My patience with randomidget is wearing thin. Something about that stance I've heard dozens of times over the years... "oh, my D1 play is always bad... just wait until the next day!" I don't know if that is necessarily a scumtell, but it always throws up red flags with me. I just don't like it when people kick themselves like that. It always feels like there's an ulterior motive behind trying to sell yourself short like that, regardless if there's any meta truth behind it or not.

It's looking more and more like Reubus is going to be the top compromise lynch candidate unless he gets his act together soon. Several people have expressed dislike with his posts, and I agree. I need to see more townie initiative from him, and not just wishy-washy posts that come across as completely non-committal.

As someone just stated, it's a very easy wagon for scum to jump on and a low information lynch.

Uh oh... BBT is starting to gross me out with comments like this. :/

[RedCoyote]

@RC - In 243, I'm trying to prevent what I feel is a sub-optimal lynch for today.

Let's not start this shit, RC. You're town, I'm town, let's leave it at that.

We have serious political disagreements here, because I don't think there's such a thing as an easy lynch. And the argument behind "information" lynches is just a bunch of hot air in this instance.

If randomidget is scum, which you must concede from your point of view that there's at worst a 1/4 chance of happening (unless I'm misunderstanding the setup), then who are you to criticize this wagon? I mean, your argument isn't that randomidget is town to you, your argument is that this lynch doesn't meet your arbitrary standards of acceptability.

Anyway, it's just... I don't like the idea that any player should be exempt from a D1 lynch because they're "too easy" or "don't give enough information". A scum lynch is the goal. Period. All lynches give us information. Everything else is just noise. Furthermore, I dispute the idea that randomidget is necessarily a policy lynch. I think Llama has brought valid points against him. Not actively participating in a way to help your town is anti-town.

[RedCoyote]

I can agree with that post, sure.

We'll see. Nothing is set in stone yet. Not by a long shot.

[RedCoyote]

Llama, I have three issues with Otolia's play in this game so far.

1) His vote history doesn't look right to me. His DLA vote in particular comes across as forced. I can respect someone not liking the idea that DLA is trying to cause reactions, but DLA's characterization of DLA as a player that is grasping at straws seems not just wrong-headed but actually fake. I do not get that impression from DLA at all. If anything, DLA has been too widespread in his suspicions. I don't think it's at all accurate to say he's "reaching" or "grasping at straws".
2) I do not like him speaking on behalf of BBT before BBT has even had a chance to respond. I think 64 is a post you should read over closely. That is not a good post regardless of his alignment, but my kneejerk reaction is to say that post comes from scum. It might be the worst post in the game for me so far.
3) In 188, DLA pointed out that Otolia was criticizing DLA for deflecting in a post he made after he made the assertion... Otolia claims that this is simply because it happened while he was writing the post, but that argument seems like a cop-out to me.

[RedCoyote]

Quote them and explain why they make no sense.

I hate that Marcrell is not going to be here for 6 days.

Makes it very difficult to lynch him.

I'd say this gives us a good time to hurry and lynch so that he can't get any potential scum powers in during the night... but he'll probably log on at some point and check.

[RedCoyote]

Damn, I only got one prod and the Mod came after me!

Eh, this day feels like it's starting to drag. I don't think I want to lynch Otolia anymore. A combination of Llama's sincerity as well as Otolia coming out against randomidget.

[RedCoyote]

A Marcrell push is pointless if he's gone as BBT alluded to.

UNVOTE: Marcrell; VOTE: Reubus Swagrid

I just realized this guy STILL isn't voting while posting lame stuff like this,

I also would like to see Collatz post more, though I'm not sure that it's worth a vote

His posts are erratic and he's ignoring the big things in this game. Seriously, RS, you want Collatz to post more? He has more posts than you... If you actually look through this guy's ISO, he seems rather preoccupied with Collatz in a number of his posts. It's peculiar. It doesn't strike me as townie. Also, I know at least two people (myself included) have asked him straight up why he's been reluctant to vote despite having ample opportunity and reason to do so.

[RedCoyote]

Why did Marcrell not vote before VLA? Jeez, why is this same point having to be made numerous times...

I so want to lynch that guy.

Llama's sincerity effects your read on Otolia because...

Otolia coming out against Random...elaborate in this please?

Because I like Llama for town at the moment. Ergo, I am comfortable putting stock in his opinions, for better or for worse. I mean, it's not that I'm going to mimic reads of my townreads, but they'll certainly influence my own reads.

Otolia's argument against randomidget is not where I think he would have or should've went as scum. You had just very vocally come down against that wagon and there were other directions I think scumOtolia could've went that would've offered less resistance. As it turns out, random is digging himself into a bit of a hole and his wagon is actually garnering continued support (which I am a bit surprised with, actually), but I think that at the time that Otolia went after him, that was not necessarily the most logical direction the wagon was going.

I feel more confident in my scumreads of RS and Marcrell right now than I do of someone like Otolia. I think there are some communication disconnects with Otolia that are kind of compounding the situation, too.

All of this said, I so much agree with your 427 and Otolia's push over the dayvig thing looks really sketchy. I don't think that's a lost in translation error either.

Eh... BBT, who do you think would join us on a theoretical Otolia wagon?

[RedCoyote]

This is not one of those games where I'm having trouble finding players I want to hang.

[RedCoyote]

Where have you ever seen votes carry over to the next Day?

I'm curious about this myself.

---

VOTE: Marcrell

I'd like him to explain why he made the conscious decision not to cast a vote yesterday after making it clear he was going on a 6-day V/LA. That's simply unacceptable. Scum-aligned players, like RS, have an incentive not to be voting or actively pursuing players they suspect. Marcrell fits this bill perfectly.

Alchemist put it more bluntly and succinctly than I could,

@RC, my vote is a tool and weapon to use as I see fit.

While I was suspect of Alchemist's RS vote at the time, given RS' flip and Alchemist's consistent, aggressive questions, I'm on much better terms with him now.

BBT is on the money in his 275. Marcrell's posting has been largely absent of critical analysis. It relies far too heavily on safe, inoffensive positions (see also his ckd vote). His response in 277 seems to dig his heels into an already questionably resigned stance. It does not read townie at all. Read this quote closely,

I don't scumread [randomidget], but he's a lynch candidate if we don't have any good scumreads

This is unacceptable. Any townie should have plenty of tire kicking to do with this group of players. Not everyone needs to be writing walls, but you need to be articulating which players you suspect, which players you don't and why. Saying that you'll be happy to let another player you don't have a scumread on be lynched? Really? No, you don't get to be that indifferent. That is scummy, scummy, scummy.

[RedCoyote]

438 - RC, your argument for not wanting to lynch Otolia in this post doesn't make much sense for me. Firstly, you assume that Otolia plays optimally as scum. Secondly, you said you didn't think scum would push the Random wagon. Why would scum not try to push one of the leading wagons?


449 - RC, how does RS' flip make you think Alch is town? You realise that, to scum, Reubus was a townie...right? I also don't see Alchemist's consistent and aggressive questioning. In fact, I don't see a whole lot from Alch at all.

I'm not assuming anyone is playing optimally... I just mean to say that I think Otolia would do X as scum. Whether that is an optimal move or not, that's in the eye of the beholder. randomidget was not a leading wagon at the time Otolia went after him, that was my point. Granted --and thanks in part to Otolia, you cannot deny-- randomidget became a leading wagon for the rest of D1 shortly after Otolia came down hard on him.

No, you misunderstand. Alchemist stuck to his guns with his RS vote even after me talking bad about it. I respected that. That RS flipped scum only makes me feel more confident that Alchemist is town for doing that. If RS had flipped town, then you necessarily have to be more skeptical of Alchemist's arrogance. Results are what counts here. As far as Alchemist being aggressive, see 69, 151, 187, 217, 218... and I could go on with specifics, but I am happy with his broad-minded approach to the game and his devil-may-care attitude. He's a good example of a poster that doesn't necessarily post a lot, but he gets things done in a smaller amount of posts/words than other people need. I'm very happy with him right now.

---

I may be misjudging his read on Otoila in that post since he asks Otoila to join a Marcrell wagon in 176.

If I think a player is scum, then I want the lynch to happen. I don't care if it consist's of scum, town, SKs, what have you... as long as it gets done. We can pick it apart the day after.

I'll look more into your DLA/Collatz thing, but I'm really afraid you're looking backwards instead of forwards. I got good vibes from those two yesterday, strong town-on-town vibes. I doubt I'll be changing my mind on that, especially when the only difference is two kind of predictable flips (and neither of which were mafia).

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: consists

[RedCoyote]

Mod

, I believe DLA is voting Alchemist, not ckd.

BBT, you're right about Otolia being late on the randomidget wagon. I somehow missed that. Are you still adamant about random getting a pass? Or was that just for D1?

DLA, that's nowhere near a scumslip. I don't know how you can even come to that conclusion. It's quite obvious that he means to say that those are his top three scumreads in descending order... I don't want to speak for him, but that sentence implies nothing about you three being scum together or not.

I think a lot of our townreads are beating each other up while the real scum in Marcrell and mnemonic and possibly Otolia lurk. I think the Collatz case is really weak. Give Collatz a chance to come back into this game. The DLA case is marginally better, but neither of these guys should be lynched today...

[RedCoyote]

mnemonic... can you clarify 525? I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

[RedCoyote]

Mod

, can you prod Marcrell, please? It has been 8 days and his V/LA has been up since Monday. We someone posting in that slot because I think he's successfully lurking himself away from suspicion. It's actually hurting my interest in the game because I feel passionate about this read but I can't really blame my fellow players for not giving it a fair shake since Marcrell isn't even around to scum it up some more.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: We

need[/] someone posting...

[RedCoyote]

Agh, why are laptop keyboards so horrible... I'm not even a really fast typer, it just skips keystrokes at random...

[RedCoyote]

As for the second part, I already consider BBT scummy. I've posted why numerous times (hint: he contradicts himself all the time) but nobody seems interested in seeing him as anything but town. And yes when a change of playstyle of someone I consider scum makes him look less scummy to everyone else, then it's a bad thing obviously.

Otolia, if you don't see a BBT wagon taking off, what makes you think a DLA one will?

---

Was what you originally said and we now have a Otolia wagon up and running.

A lot of it boils down to me being unhappy with how this day is playing out. I see a lot of shouting between you, Otolia and DLA and not much else. Granted, I've not been active enough, but that's mostly because I see you and DLA as town and I'm just not really comfortable pursuing Otolia. You can interpret that how you will. He may be scum yet. I think there's a fair shot that he is. He just doesn't excite me. I see a lot of his posts as someone trying to get his point across, but I see just as many as someone that's being sketchy.

Look, let me put it another way, and I'm going to keep beating this dead horse. I see something really shady in Marcrell. I've seen it from early on in this game. I dropped it on D1 because he successfully lurked his way out of lynch contention. I'm more reluctant to drop it again because he's doing the

same thing

! I don't think people have given enough thought to voting Marcrell, but I can't blame those people either because he's been lurking enough to let other players rip at each other. Additionally, this isn't an excuse to ignore other players. I'm on record with my feelings of other players... but it's frustrating to have to listen to you or Alchemist or Otolia ask me to drop my suspicions two days in a row because y'all have your own favorites.

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if you took Marcel out of the picture, tell me what RC has done in the game?

Excuse me, I was a significant player in the RS wagon yesterday. I've made my position today pretty clear. I don't think DLA or Collatz are good wagons. Period. I don't know how much clearer I can make that. If you want me to address a specific point or post, then you should bring that up. The Otolia wagon is okay, but I'm not overly excited about it. No one else is really talking. Marcrell is successfully lurking through another day and I can't get anyone to care about it.

---

I'll post more on the 'current' stuff later.

I actually don't mind Collatz's randomidget vote here because it seems in line with his posts thus far. I do wish he'd give us more about Otolia or BBT though (and Marcrell, too, it goes without saying... but to be interested but Collatz's interest in the game seems to be a mile wide and an inch deep).

---

The resistance to the MD wagon is very telling.

That's not telling at all. You say "we should lynch MD" and the fact that no one has joined you 12 hours later is telling? :/

I've been trying to get votes on Marcrell since the word go. Maybe the fact that I'm the only person that has voted him or tried to get him to talk in 2 weeks is telling, eh?

---

Now that you mention it I can't really mark out much town from mnemonic.
VOTE: mnemonicdevice

Third seat on the wagon comes from Marcrell. Yuck. Has he even said anything about md at all this game? (I already know the answer to this... but do you?)

No mention of the people that have asked you for more commentary (Lucky, Alchemist). You've been gone for over a week and the best you can come up with is latching yourself to BBT? The same BBT that you said "might be a decent lynch"?

Goodness gracious... does this guy have one honest bone in his body?

---

Holy fuck, can we not do this? I still think you're both Town, and would like a solid Town block with you two, RC, Lucky, and myself.

Too big of a bloc! There's probably one sneaky scum in the group of ckd, BBT and Alchemist. D:

But I will say that I don't want to lynch any of you three today, that's for sure.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: (and Marcrell, too, it goes without saying...

but to be interested

but Collatz's interest in the game seems to be a mile wide and an inch deep).

[RedCoyote]

we are all waiting for you to be lynched

Now THIS is IC posting.

---

Being a town leader in D1 (vote on Collatz, on me etc) to being more passive. What has changed ?

I can see where you are coming from with this.

---

I also didnt like the...."I am still the fool, but my wagon disappeared and I am puzzled." I am not sure why you are puzzled or why you would say this.

That sounds like honest to me, and I'll give him props for being vocal about it (although he should know the reason... the md wagon usurped his at the behest of BBT and the Marcrell wagon is usurping that one because Marcrell can't stop acting scum for the life of himself... literally!)

I agree with your other point, but with the caveat that I do not think that's what Otolia was doing. I read it as he simply hadn't really considered the two wagons seriously (he is focused on DLA instead).

That said, your 679 is a good catch and there seems to be a pattern of Otolia tripping over the things he has said in the past (much like Marcrell, imo).

---

RC, what does a wagon on me not taking off have to do with a wagon on DLA? That's a strange link to make.

I thought the connection was rather obvious. To elaborate, Otolia was coming after you earlier today. When no one joined in his efforts, he floated the idea of a DLA wagon. Both of these are wagons that don't seem to be very popular ones, and it's strange that Otolia would go to such lengths to try and pull attention towards these non-starters. I don't think anyone would be interested in lynching you today outside from Otolia (sans Marcrell, although he has backtracked on this). The DLA wagon is a little more attractive, but I still don't see more than four votes for DLA, tops, based on what people have said so far this game.

I'm not so sure about Collatz being town anymore. He isn't really doing anything to progress the game and he doesn't seem to be trying to work out people's alignments either.

I sense more disinterest than active lurking in his case. Actually, let me check his sitewide history before I say this... and, yes, his sitewide posting history seems to corroborate that notion. That doesn't excuse him from participating, but I don't think he's necessarily ignoring this game to shirk suspicion either.

---

Who? Otolia?

If this is a joke, it went over my head...

---

I don't like asking for claim in semi-open unless a fullclaim is coming as it's completely pointless so I won't bother with that. But I'm letting people with more towncred than me decided if they want one - now is your time.

Of course you should ask for a claim... that said, if Marcrell is scum, you'll get townpoints for the hammer and a slap on the wrist for not asking for the claim. If Marcrell flips town, however, you'll be putting yourself in a bad spot come tomorrow (and with good reason).

---

I haven't looked into him too much yet, unfortunately. I'm wouldn't be overly upset if he were lynched, but I'm a lot more confident in my Otalia-scum read.

Okay, now this I do not like. DLA, you stated unequivocally that you'd be looking into Marcrell several days ago:

Your case against Marcrell is compelling. I'll look into it later when I have time.

Not much has changed with him since. What I mean by that is, he hasn't done anything to improve his status as a townie that might otherwise mitigate how scummy he looked earlier in the game. If anything, as the wagon is clear evidence of, he's gotten worse overtime. Although I do recall you looking into it and providing feedback, I remember it being mostly positive. So... I'm a little confused as to why you're taken by such surprise and you act as though you haven't put enough thought into the idea of Marcrell scum.

A Marcrell scumflip will definitely cause me to look in DLA's direction going forward.

[RedCoyote]

I thought he was scum ? But no matter, you're the scum here. That above is the proof.

Can you explain how the post you quoted points to DLA being scum?

It doesn't matter what marcrell claims.

Let's postulate that he is indeed a town PR. There are 2 roles that are relevant : JK and Cop. Thing is JK is not indicative of alignment, nor is Cop since there may be a Godfather.
Other possibility, he is scum. He claims a PR, we have no way to confirm his claim without a complete fullclaim from everybody.

Since the principal proponent of such a reveal is dead (OH THAT'S CONVENIENT) there is little we can do. Are we going to take what he says at face value despite the fact that we KNOW for sure, it's not going to be useful to town ? Look how convenient it is for DLA to stall if he is scum with marcrell. He votes him so he cannot be accused of being fishy, but still tries to peg me as scum. Saving his buddy much ? Also the mention of cop screams scum-buddy coaching his buddy to a fake-claim. There is no reason to wait for a claim in the present conditions. Doing so only makes the game much harder for town by introducing potential WIFOMs.

Hmmm... Otolia, I may have underestimated you. This is seriously much deeper than I had looked into the setup.

WWLD (What Would Llama Do) ?

Can anyone retort this?

Lucky, since you're voting on the back of this post supposedly, what's not sound about his reasoning?

[RedCoyote]

Oh, wait, I just read Lucky's post about a cop report. That's a consideration, too. Yeah, a claim is for the best. I have to admit I'd lol if Marcrell claimed cop though.

[RedCoyote]

I get what you are saying, but let's not go crazy here. Otolia is one of those players that you have to tell your brain to shut up and let your heart have a say. He may be ticking the boxes that say scum, but I do not feel it. My gut tells me that's wrong. I'm just telling it like it is. If Otolia was saying all this to

stop

us from lynching Marcrell, then I might see where you are coming from. I do not see scumOtolia making such a big deal over hammering and drawing attention to himself as scum though. Otolia should not be lynched today.

[RedCoyote]

I won't criticize Lucky for that because, one, he's an IC, and two, even if he wasn't it's probably best served for MD/post-game anyway, but, Lucky, remind me to argue with you about that after the game is over. I hope to convert you to being more open with your thoughts.

[RedCoyote]

Actually, ignore that post. In the unique circumstance of an IC, I think Lucky's stance can be justified.

[RedCoyote]

Nice try, DLA, but precociously pointing out your grammar mishaps won't endear you to me if you're scum!

[RedCoyote]

Stroking my ego is always a good start.

I'd also say having cute avatars is a plus, but you already have that down.

[RedCoyote]

DLA = town

[RedCoyote]

I don't want to lynch DLA until I know what Marcrell's alignment is. It makes a big difference to me. DLA came on too strong in favor of sparing Marcrell (which I do not think gels with what he's said about him in the past).

That said, if Marcrell is town, then DLA was probably right to try and push on the brakes.

[RedCoyote]

Assuming Marcrell is scum, which I am 90%+ sure that he is, Collatz, ckd, BBT and md all strike me as very safe bets for town for different reasons. I can elaborate on this later, but I just want that on record before the thread is locked.

Alchemist and DLA are the two I am going to be looking at strongly tomorrow. They may look the worst going into tomorrow given how they both tried to put the brakes on this lynch to varying degrees over the course of this game.

random and Otolia are more in the middle, but Otolia I am much more safe calling town. random is more of a toss up.

[RedCoyote]

DLA's 805 hits it on the nose. If Collatz was a scumbuddy of Marcrell, I'd venture to guess his last post wouldn't have been so absent-minded. Could be a WIFOM play, but I doubt it.

I also think DLA's 807 is a thinly-veiled attempt to stroke your misdirection, but that's getting into confirmation bias territory.

[RedCoyote]

I disagree. He would've just lurked until the thread closed. I would have had I been Marcrell's partner in that position. There's nothing about Collatz most recent posting (or his post before that) that shows any sign of concern about Marcrell. I don't think he's faking indifference and inattentiveness. I think he doesn't realize that Marcrell was lynched because he never cared that Marcrell was getting run up. Ergo, he has no connection to the guy.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: posting = post

[RedCoyote]

Although now that I'm actually looking at it, it has been longer since he has posted than I remember. Eh, I still feel okay about him in my gut. His md push is completely unrelated to the wagon that was going on md at the time, and that I will defend. I think that md wagon was dirty, but I don't think Collatz was what was making it dirty.

[RedCoyote]

My bet right now would be that Alchemist did, yes.

[RedCoyote]

Yeah, I mean, I think we're mostly on the same page, just swap Collatz for random.

[RedCoyote]

Another way of looking at it is that Marcrell's inexplicable protection of you is kind of a "makes-you-go-huh?" moment.

[RedCoyote]

Shame to lose BBT. I'm surprised about Alchemist, but that only makes my decision today easier.

VOTE: DarkLightA

If someone wants me to build a case, it will be centered around DLA's interactions with Marcrell. Namely that he was very receptive to calling him scummy when it didn't make a difference, but as soon as his wagon started gaining real steam, he got nervous about the prospect of Marcrell actually getting lynched. This is the best time to find scum partners, when you have one scum that is slowly but surely gaining support... how do others react? I think the best direction we should go with our lynch today is in analyzing how players reacted to that Marcrell wagon.

Additionally, as Llama brought up when he replaced in, now's probably the time to be considering a massclaim. I'm referring to 204, or the "Tier Claim Theory". Anyone object to doing this?

[RedCoyote]

Scum can't get vig, DLA.

[RedCoyote]

The presence of a vig, scum RB, IC and SK means that you can narrow down the PR draw fairly well, although there's still room for 1-3 more PRs, I think.

[RedCoyote]

I know who is telling the truth, so I can see if someone is lying. That being said, we can force them into a corner. DLA and MD are town.

I'm assuming those two are your investigations then, yes? Will you please explain to us why you decided to investigate those two players?

I'm also claiming cop

. I have two distinct breadcrumbs for this claim in my posts that I'd be happy to point out if requested.

My investigations were Marcrell on N1 and Alchemist on N2. I investigated Marcrell on N1 because he was my number one scumread during the first day (see 170). I was very suspicious about his V/LA (this is not to say that I doubt he was actually V/LA, I just think he used his absence as an excuse to skate by the end of the day without really taking any firm stands that could get him into trouble) at the end of the day (see 438), coupled with my pressure of him early in the game that I thought made him look worse to me than not. When I received a guilty on N1, I then pushed him even harder (see 449) and was trying to be as relentless as possible without having to claim my results. Unfortunately on N2 I investigated Alchemist rather than DLA. I was suspicious of both players going into the night (see 809), but I ultimately decided to go with investigating Alchemist because of Marcrell's claim of protecting him with his fake doctor claim and my earlier support of DLA as a townie (moreso than Alchemist).

I do believe Collatz. I'm still comfortable with that townread.

We need to hear from md as the last person to claim, and I also need random to give me more detail about his claim.

Remember there are 7 letters for this setup. Based on what we know so far, the following letters had to come up:

VMT

If you add the claims in, then this is what we now have (assuming md doesn't claim a PR):

VMTCCCC

It's possible that both randomidget and I are both unlimited cops. Assuming that Collatz is not lying about his number of shots, the only other option is:

VMTTTCC

If one of the remaining scum is a godfather, then randomidget is telling the truth. If both remaining scum are goons, then he's lying. If both randomidget and I are telling the truth, then the last two scum must be Otolia and ckd.

One additional note, the best play for a mafia goon to make here would be to fakeclaim cop with an innocent result on their godfather. Given that I have townreads on Otolia and ckd, my gut tells me randomidget is probably lying and DLA is a godfather, but I'll let others chime in with their thoughts as well. I'm not 100% committed to that, but randomidget is going to have to sell me pretty damn hard on him being a cop with some real evidence from his post history.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: One additional note,

the best play for a mafia goon to make here would be to fakeclaim cop with an innocent result on their godfather

. Given that I have townreads on Otolia and ckd, my gut tells me randomidget is probably lying

and DLA is a godfather

Ignore this part. I mixed up the two possible outcomes.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP (x2):

If both randomidget and I are telling the truth, then the last two scum must be Otolia and ckd.

Actually, this isn't accurate either because in the scenario where both randomidget and I are cops, one of his results could've been a godfather.

[RedCoyote]

UNVOTE: DarkLightA

It might go back, but it doesn't need to be here right now.

[RedCoyote]

We need to hear from md as the last person to claim

If you add the claims in, then this is what we now have (assuming md doesn't claim a PR)

[RedCoyote]

ckd, if both randomidget and I are cops, then that means there is a godfather. Ergo, md could be that godfather from your point of view and Otolia be his partner.

Breadcrumbs:

Also I'm in BEAUTIFUL Europe, land of the only handsome men (like me) on Earth.

'

C

ourse... It's weird that you'd say Europe and not your country or city.

---

Because you changed your vote once, and then twice for no reason.

O

h, I don't buy what you're selling.

---

My vote on Alchemist was also semi-serious. I'd like a response to the second part. Usually offering some sort of reason, even if useless, is better for town.

P

lease. I can't stand it when people unironically say words like "semi-serious", "kinda random" "I'm a little pregnant". Be bold, friend. When I see a word like semi-serious I think you're leaving the door open to go in either direction with your true intentions.

You can also join me on the Marcrell wagon if you want to be on my good side.

[RedCoyote]

You can also join me on the Marcrell wagon if you want to be on my good side.

and for alchemist?

Huh? That was just a general breadcrumb. I was using the cop smiley for myself.

We're really at a standstill until md comes back... no plan can move forward until then. I mean, it's safe to assume he'll claim VT, but who knows. Additionally, if he does happen to claim a PR of some sort, then one of the PRs is definitely lying. Collatz, what do you make of the situation? I'd say you're the second-most townie player now behind Lucky.

[RedCoyote]

ckd is so town...

[RedCoyote]

Because I didn't want to be shot... I wasn't going to say "btw, I know Marcrell is scum but don't ask me how I know".

[RedCoyote]

Rest assured everything I said on D2 was in an effort to get Marcrell lynched without letting on that I was a cop. I wanted it to appear that I was just tunneling Marcrell as a VT.

[RedCoyote]

I wouldn't have given up, but I can understand why Otolia did. I had fun with this one, but I was getting real pissed at Lucky and ckd giving me such lip there at the end. Did y'all seriously think I was scum?

gg everyone.

[RedCoyote]

Just read the private topics. Otolia, you played really well, btw. You are a force to be reckoned with.