Open 595: Elemental Mafia (Town Wins!)

[Bellaphant]

VOTE: fa_q2 meta says he has to be scum.

[Bellaphant]

Choof, why so excited for deadline?
Ric, you town?
lane, what do you think people are disliking about post 23?

[Bellaphant]

Nope, ric. But someone definitely is.

Conman, I dunno about gut: rvs/rqs allows me to get a better 'base' read on people, but I know a lot of people on the site hate it. Also, it kinda depends what you, individually, mean when you say gut: your gut has generally been prompted by something, even if later it proves incorrect against other, stronger evidence. (Does that make sense?) Anyway, please do share your thoughts. Jeanne, too: who do you think could be maf?

[Bellaphant]

Papa, it was another rvs joke.me and fa played our first game together in Rome. He was scum and he hammered me in lylo. So, in a game where we play together, stats say he has 100% Chance of scum. Apparently. Jokes are less funny when you explain them!

[Bellaphant]

Another +1 to choof's point about plot's half in/half out of rvs weirdness. We're 4 pages in, people must have reactions to something by now.

For example, Ric is town. Plot might not be. VOTE: plot

@mod, can we have a vote count? Also, are we missing some players, or can I not count?

[Bellaphant]

Also, sorry Papi. Was phone posting

@Flub, any other thoughts?

[Bellaphant]

Hehe, now I can't respond Without looking iffy. Interesting. However, your reasons didn't seem to be based on much more than a style thing, so I wasn't sure what to make of it.

[Bellaphant]

*tapdances* better?

Would you like me to argue about why obvious jokes are obvious?

I could argue that FA's vote on flub is silly, but I don't necessarily think fa is scum.

Actually, a better idea is to ask @farside: why you so bothered about my 'crap posting' when other people *cough*conman*cough* are arguably making less progress towards sorting the game. Also, what are your thoughts on plot/flub/choof?

@flub, any initial reads?
@papi, your thoughts?
Currently, I'd like to hear more from choof, as he promised a big post.

Also, plot, I'm pretty new.

[Bellaphant]

Because I agree with you?

Stating you are willing to sheep a vote that does not even exist and also not vote really seems opportunistic. Then, couple that with:

OK, you want a read? I think, flubber, you're being a tad over pedantic about me not correcting a formatting error. That's a feeble line of investigation, feels like your whole line is an OMGUS vote. My vote will stay put for now.

Gimme one more scum read and ill move my vote over to plot

Why? Why would you move your vote over to plot if you get another vote but stay where you are at if you do not? Give me a town motivation for this that makes sense. O far the only player that looks to be scum is you…

Where is flubber at in the VC? His wagon is moving awfully fast...

UNVOTE:

FA, I do wanna ask you about this. Do you have any other reads? I get your later point about town wagons with no resistance, but I don't necessarily see this as a reason to town-read anyone else on that wagon.

I had to meta flub for my last game. He's ALWAYS weird about rv(q)s. Is there any other reason to think he's scum?


@ric, farside had made the fake comment after my...second(?!) post. Maybe it was the smilies. I didn't really react to it because...wut? Then my non-reaction was an issue. If you wanted something contrived...

[Bellaphant]

Yeah Bella is weirding me out... she's asked people for reads or who they think is scum exactly 8 times among other questions posed. Made some vague references about how something could be bad but maybe not. Voted plot cause he might be scum.

Do you have any of your own reads Bella? And what was silly about fa's vote?

I was a little put off by farside. Day 1 I'm generally a little more tentative, and I like working with as much information as possible. In terms of my own reads, I'm town-reading flub and ric, currently thinking conman and yourself could be scum. 229 could be coaching. I'd like to read far's catch-up. Also, I mis-read the order of FA's posts and his clarification makes more sense to me.

Yeah Bella is weirding me out... she's asked people for reads or who they think is scum exactly 8 times among other questions posed.

That's bullshit. I counted around half as many instances. Six the second time, and that was being generous.

You have a point anyway, but this is blatant exaggeration to make Bella look worse.

I'm working on my town-game, I don't need help to look worse.

Do you seriously not see the overreaction to the post?

Look at the wording for sakes.

Page 1 quick hammer for a derp vote.

ONE VOTE ON HIM.
ONE.

Why the need to say quick hammer? He wasn't even close to being lynched. Not close to L-1. Major overreaction, majorly jumpy.

For you to say it's not im calling bullshity on that.

This makes sense to me. Even though con later says it was a joke, scum are worried about getting lynched early.
#

I'd be a lot more comfortable with lane if he had a vote in play

Yup

I'm going through ISOs so I can ask people questions if I have them. I've only done 4 so far but I thought maybe it would be better to post the questions I've found so far now instead of waiting until I have a question for everybody because that way lies tl;dr.

Bella, can you explain how deflecting the spotlight off of yourself in 162 onto other people is furthing the town wincon? Because where I'm sitting on my re-read it's looking kinda like "scummy? me? i'm not scummy! he's scummy!" But I'm willing to entertain alternate explanations.

I understand why you could read it like that, but what I'm aiming at is...why has farside picked up on something (after 2 posts!) with my posts and not elsewhere. It says things about her read on con-man, and her interaction with him. Either Far thinks fluff-posting (or smilies, whatever ) are a scum-tell, or she has something else going on. (Flub asked her the same question...so the motivation here isn't just deflecting attention.) Also, I like this post enough to move my vote.

What are you talking about? Nothing you said is connected to my post.

I didn’t town read anyone for a fast wagon- those ON the wagon are much more likely to be scum, not town. The one that is wagoned might be town. However, I realized I was incorrect about flubs wagon being fast – there was more talk than actual action (not a very town thing either really).

Further, I did not suspect him because he is being weird about rvs – that is normal though rather silly. I gave 2 reasons and none of them have anything to do with rvs.

He also totally ignored my questions. Also scummy in my book.

Sorry, I don't think I was clear: I understood what you said about the 'wagonee' being town, but I misunderstood what you meant about the wagon resistance: re-reading, I thought you were arguing the opposite of what you said.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ConManMick

[Bellaphant]

Welp, that's enough for me

Bella, so far you have yet to bring up something that anyone has done as being scummy or townie. this post solidifies my position.

Ric and flub are town. Why?

Me and con are scum. Why? Unless it's just the coaching thing. In that case, why him over me? from what you've given me for reads I should be your vote by far because I didn't have a vote in play.

I'm not cool with people voting without (read extremely little) reason right now, so give me more.

VOTE: bellaphant

I like(d) the questions Ric was asking and I can see him moving the thread on. Apart from wrong's back and forth, I think he's one of the players that has asked the most pertinent questions to try and 'sort' the game. I dunno if he's at times over aggressive with some of his ideas, but with the amount of absent players we need things moving forwards.

Flub is a harder one: I've just come out of a game with him and I read a lot of his meta, so a lot of it is gut. The frustration that is pinging for others, at times, seems normal for him

My scum-read on con is the strongest, because I don't like the lack of total content (he's wordier than me, but I honestly think he's said less) and his lack of a decent set of reads (apart from on people who are voting for him, who must be scum...) even when pushed. I can't see any motivation to 'sort' the game.

Some of your posts to con do seem like coaching, but there is a flip side to that coin. The other reason I scum-read you was because the tone of some of your posts seems a bit forced/ aggressive. I know some of your meta is old, but I've read some of it and maybe that's just how you play...I've only found town games (you got many as scum?) and I'm starting to wonder if I'm incorrect on my initial read on you.

Phone posting so general comments made here as I read.

Senator is a strong town read for me.

Plot feels like just doing busy work to look active.

@bela: hi! Nice of you to join here. I did say something about con's post already.
As for my reads. Plot I said just above. I'm paranoid about Flubber being active because I don't recall him as an active player so he's more just on my to be watched list. Choof is a town read.
What are your reads on everyone thus far?

@flubber: it does read fake. Sorry that it wasn't clear.

@lane: I'm poking players I find scummy for reaction to get reads. It's how I work best.
Asking innane questions and barely responding to those questions is a scumtell in my book.

I'll make a longer post after catch up on what I read as fake for bela and con next.

I always thought fake and fluff was about the same. Close to it.

Puts ric under wtf category.

Wrong song is leaning town read.

Lane is probably town.

Ric moves to scum read.

Plot's 230 makes me feel slightly better about him.

Bela: why does con and lane read as scum?

Vote: conman

Reason why next post.

Hi far I'm interested in your plot read, because initially I thought the same as you, started to change my mind with her last big post, and am now kinda null on her. Same for fa. Conman is a scum-read, think wrong/flub and probably ric are town, and don't feel I've got enough data for a senator read (or anyone else, really).

As said above, I'm now unsure on lane. I think I need to stop looking for associations before flips.

@bela:
This post rubbed me wrong because 2 out of 3 questions where pointless.
You come across as unsure what to say or ask when you make post like this.
As I said after my vote your lack of reaction caught my attention.
Very unnewb like reaction.

Choof, why so excited for deadline?
Ric, you town?
lane, what do you think people are disliking about post 23?

I am a newb, though, which probably explains why I am coming across as unsure. I'm trying to improve my town-game...you don't have to answer, but what kind of reaction were you expecting? I was curious about choof's slightly spammy posting, lane was a serious question (I assume you agree) and ric was a stupid joke. So, I should stop making stupid jokes. Noted.

[Bellaphant]

@plot, what was your take on my response to your questions?

[Bellaphant]

More comfortable with lane now

Please explain why.

I read this as a joke? Like, flub said he was worried lane wasn't voting, lane did...

sorry, I meant to reply to this. thanks for poking me. My response was basically "fair enough". It's early in the game, I'm starting to get some early feelings about various slots but farside was having feelings a lot earlier than me, but she's more experienced too and maybe she's played with some of these people before and has some pre-game associations on which to base her early reads. It does seem that her read on you is more based on the average newbie than previous play with you in particular? I haven't played with anyone in this thread before either, and I noticed that some of the things she was pointing out about you are things townMe would do too, for example in my one completed game people (correctly) townread me for not reacting much to someone voting me.

so I don't really know if she was right to push you or not (except in the sense that early on it's good to push a lot of people a little bit and see what happens), but I liked your response to my question.

I agree with this, seems like she was working to an idea. However, you are saying here that you didn't react, and people town-read you, which was the opposite of what she did. I didn't really understand her vote on me, although she has explained her reasons better and I think it was worth prompting that conversation. In a game this big, I wasn't that worried about 1 vote. I've note been playing my best this week.

I'm not sure what the issue is with 44, but hey, to each his own and all that.
I think it's unfair to dismiss my suspicions of Bella as an OMGUS purely because she has voted for me. Look at her vote on me: it's very opportunist, and as soon as she drops it, she slithers away from people's suspicions. Speaking very frankly, it's a pain in the arse feeling like you can't provide an opinion on someone because it'll be dismissed out of hand on this basis. I'm also not the first to point out how convenient her vote was.

How is it opportunist? Also, how have I 'slithered away from people's suspicions?' until Far unvoted me, we had the same amount of votes. If you can't back your points up, why make them? Are you saying people stopped suspecting me because I voted you? 'Coz that's not the case. I don't get it. If you are bothered by far's vote, I'm not sure what that has to do with me.

[Bellaphant]

Plot pulled me up on this. I responded 239. Flub also said something similar in 107

Now, we can both admit to a couple of bad posts. I'm not gonna deny that. I'm still not convinced you are trying to sort the game. Referring back to something I've already responded to isn't really moving the game forward.

[Bellaphant]

@plot, that's clearer, thanks.
@lane, if you weren't going to explain your comment, why make it?

[Bellaphant]

To let people know I am firm in my reads and my vote wont be going anywhere soon

Okay, so your saying you won't adapt to new information, and you'd rather be seen as 'firm' than be correct?

Well I'm not moving from con so.....

Bela: can you explain why ric reads town.

I've been asked this a couple of times, think by BBT as well, and it's because I like the fact he's asking questions, seems to be interacting with everybody and is helping the town making general progress. However, at times his questions can seem a bit picky, which is why he's currently 'town', but not my strongest town-read.
@bbt, you mentioned my rvs joke with ric: we're playing together in a concurrent game. His response was also a reference to this. I did explain this to farside, but I don't think your catch-up is there yet!

What do you think of Wrong Song thus far?

Her initial reason for her con-vote is weak, but her points about his quick-hammer comments rung true, and I like a lot of post 201. However, a lot of her attention was focused on con-man/lane with a side helping of ric, which is a bit tunnel-visiony. Maybe town, need some more content.

Fair enough Bella, I withdraw my comments.
BBT, have you honestly just jumped on the largest wagon purely on the basis of it being the largest? Granted, only three other players but still, that's a hell of a way to enter a game.
Regards to town reads, I thought I posted them already, lemme check really quick.

….does this change your read on me at all? Or just the comments?

Tbh, I suggest a policy lynch of a lurker d1. Town that doesn't contribute should be gotten rid of and if they happen to be maf it's a bonus.

Bzzzz
No info lynch helps no one but scum.

Yup yup.


Interested in the catch-up. BBT, I hope further reading will change your mind.

Also, people seem to have very different reads on flub. Point to what I'm missing?

[Bellaphant]

Good question, actually. I'd only made one post inbetween. And no follow up on his farside point.

[Bellaphant]

Plot, thanks, I know now it was a mistake (as was ric's response, probably) but people keep asking me about it! I'm just gonna link them to a previous answer now, and hope the mod is ok with that?

appologies mod! Does that sound like a good strategy?

I've not made reference to it out of a) the joke and b) people asking me about the joke! Does that make sense?

[Bellaphant]

Bert alt? Can you explain a bit more for those not in the know?

[Bellaphant]

273 - Bella, can you quote posts from Ric that made you town read him please. Can you make sure all of the posts you quote come before post 98 as well.

I don't like you looking for direction from Farside either. The wording here is very strange;

think wrong/flub and probably ric are town

This is strange because you seem to have been town reading Ric all game. Yet, when you list your town reads, not only is he not your first town read you state but he is a 'probably' town. That doesn't fit with your play so far this game.

Sure? Straight-away, 28 their interaction with plot when she says she's half out of RVS, which got the same reaction from him as it did from me and 90. Maybe it's because they seemed to be thinking similar things to me, and I know I'm town. Also, how does that not fit with my play?

How do you mean, direction from far? Was it about the newb!reaction thing? How would knowing that help me in any way, pages after it happened??

Speaking of that, Bella, why IS Flub town?

I've answered this, but I did a lot of meta reading him for a game we just finished. Based of off his style here, it aligns with my general 'feel' of his town-games. This one I can't back up with posts, because it's more of a reaction.

Bert alt? Can you explain a bit more for those not in the know?

Check his posting style. You can also look up Antihero: Redemption. I think it's theme mini 1619

Okay, will do.

tl;dr: tryhard is probably a nulltell for me.

What do you mean? How are you tryhard, Plotinus?

I liked plot's explanation here. I'd like it better with a vote, though.

Leaning scum to reading scum on Bella still. Still think it was a sidestep.

Interesting, after 320. You withdrew them, but the minute BBT looks like he's in support of them they are straight back out there? FFS, I tried to engage with you on this.


@BBT.
36 I've explained at least twice.
98 Answered up post
102 a vaguely valid point, but I didn't understand far's reaction. Course I'd be self-conscious. Again, I've spoken about this, and I understand where far was coming from.
162The RVS joke thing was done to death. I followed up with FA and with far, papi and choof haven't really given us anything substantial since. I guess the only thing here is Flub.
239 Nah. Not opportunistic. I keep making my case on him, but it seems you are determined to town-read him with very little evidence. People have literally guided him to useful contributions and we're not getting them. The most towny thing he's said is to not lynch lurkers.

The newb thing: far was talking about newb!scum. It would've been weird not to mention it.

So, your case on me consists of stuff I've already spoken about (but not the answers), a 'self aware' post after it seemed my posting style was criticized, follow-ups with people who haven't posted anything big since, and a vote on someone who is acting scummy...but isn't scum, because, um, he's an 'easy target'.

Nope. I like the activity you've brought to the thread, but your case is terrible.

[Bellaphant]

I just meant a vote from you in play in general! Not specific to this conversation necessarily. Sorry.

[Bellaphant]

Sorry, there was meant to be a comma after 28! *derp*
They is ric. It's not made up on the spot, it's my best recollection of something from nearly a week ago. Normally, I make notes. This week, I've had OFSTED. 90 is challenging flub's push on con-man, which as scum he didn't need to do.

Yeah, your question could've been a lot clearer. But, I disagree that it's asking for direction. Also, your point about the plot 'reason to vote' is ridiculous, 'coz I'd literally just unvoted her, after hr 230post. I've picked up on similar issues as others: her thoughts seem genuine, but at times she looks like a try-hard newb, something that was said about me in my last scum-game.

36- okay, I can't do anything about that.

102 -...I know? I agreed with you here in my last post. I just called myself 'self-conscious'. I don't know why this is a massive scum-tell.
162- I spoke with Fa about the wagon, and have discussed my take on flub. I like your mind-reading skills..papi and choof haven't posted a huge amount of content

(in fact, both have indicated they were posting catch-ups, which might've answered the question, but that hasn't happened

) and Flub has done some explaining of his reads

Stuff on con-man incoming.

.

[Bellaphant]

No, I'm stating that the comma suggests these are different points! 28 I liked as it shows he wants to move out of rvs and into scum-hunting. Why wouldn't you challenge flub? He's scum-reading con for rvs nonsense, and rather than jump on it, he asks why. If you are scum-reading me for being 'opportunistic', this is the opposite.
102: I dunno why you think I'm not agreeing with you here. I am agreeing this was self-conscious. I'm saying that it was a reaction to farside's reaction to me. I'm asking why this is a scum-tell.
162: they promised catch-up posts. It was reasonable to a)assume I'd get answers and b) push if not. Pushing the same questions at them before they've done it seems unreasonable.

[Bellaphant]

Okay, onto con-man.

Before the post BBT pointed out, no, not really. They'd not done much to catch my attention, and also it was like my ninth post?
But, that changed on the pages around my vote. Let's summarise the case on him.
posts 1-6: fluff, and stating he hasn't 'got anything yet' and setting up a reason not to give reads.
7- questions plot, no real follow-up.
8-9 nothing much
10-12 about rvs. Isn't progressing the game
13: now his rvs is serious, mainly 'coz flub has pushed on him (this will become a theme!)
14-22- literally all fluff/he knows a player irl. Again makes an excuse for not having reads.
23: has a vague read, on someone who's voted him. Apologises for 'dicking about', asks for advice. This is what really got me 'pinging'
24: no reads, and fluff. he's literally just said he wouldn't do this.
25: suddenly looks way better. but who is he commenting on? People who are scum-reading him. Also, he's kinda missed the point of my response to far.
26: I have no real rreads. Or I might. But only if you want me to share them 0.o
27: one of his better posts.
28: about irl
30-31: about someone who's voting him. has again kinda (deliberately) missed the point of my response to far.
32: best post. could be faked, though, as is easy.
33:nothing
34: fluff
35: going back to old ideas, not asking any questions. no progression (still about someone who's voting for him)
36: vaguely refers to the fact he's misinterpreted me, I'm still scum
37: 'why I haven't done anything since rvs'.

I can't see any progression to the game, even when he's a) asked for advice on how to do it and b) acknowledged that fluff-posting is a pain, but doesn't stop. He only gives clear reads/thoughts on people voting for him (who are scum) and isn't trying to sort the game at all. Do you need me to explain more, bbt?

(also, the scum-reading people voting you thing is really scummy, to me. For example, I think bbt is town, even with his vote on me, and I do like the discussion he's prompted.)

[Bellaphant]

28, maybe he could, but I don't see why you would fake 90, rather than a)doing nothing or b) using it to push a scum-agenda. Why would you fake 90? (not sarcasm, actual question)

[Bellaphant]

@flub, I'm not the only one who didn't get it at that point. 103 makes it clearer.

@bbt, okay.Did he? And, no, it's not something I've seen/thought about before. I could just be ignorant of it, though.

[Bellaphant]

@sen, some people missing from your list?

[Bellaphant]

Serious question, papi - why aren't you reading through the pages? Iso ING everyone out of context feels really off, and it isn't progressing much...for example, you commented on a bunch of thinhs bbt has already questioned me about...

[Bellaphant]

VOTE: papi his response to pressure has been bizarre, and his catch up method is pointless. Not contributing anything new. I can't track his thought process.

But, con tomorrow.

[Bellaphant]

@rev, you got any links to show you doing that elsewhere?

[Bellaphant]

Kk, so what happens if papi never comes back to Claim/post a defence? Actaully, while we wait:bbt, you never clarified about post 438 and the Rvs thing. Talk to me about your tthoughts?

[Bellaphant]

We have to be prepared to risk lynching a doc, that's my point. A doc claim should not be considered immunity from lynch.

I don't like how you aren't willing to give a player who admits to not reading the game and claimed doc a day to sort himself out. There's plenty of players to sort through here. His claim didn't look in any way faked.

You're caught up then?

@Sen, what looks legit to you? The whole post is bizzare...'if you want to lynch me because of this excuse': wut? Surely, if the claim was legit, you'd be demanding NOT to be lynched? The way the post is phrased also reads like it is more important that a) he read the thread and b) has reads before c) his claim.

He's also not made a case on why his scum-reads are scum, or tried to get them lynched. Also, the attention to vettrock (davesv) (caps and swearing) is really odd, especially as they don't come under the 'scum-team'

Not buying it.

@rev, what is a Chinese fire-drill?
@bbt, we talking about my question to you?

[Bellaphant]

@bbt, 438. You seemed to be concerned about me missing something, and I genuinely didn't/don't get it. (Know Ric has responded, but...)

Thanks, rev.

@Far, lane has also gone weirdly quiet while the papi-wagon was going down.

@mod, is he due a prod?

. Con is also coming up to prod-range, while the pressure has dropped on him. Ugh.

[Bellaphant]

Sen? What, mate?? The only part of my post language could be an issue with is the 'excuse' bit. Not being a native English speaker doesn't explain why he hasn't tried to get his scum-reads lynched, why his claim came where it was, or the attention to dave/vet.

Why would you mis-rep a post that badly?

[Bellaphant]

Seriously, even if he isn't scum (which, so doubtful - plot made a small but good point about the fact the town / the Dr should be finding his town town and pushing a lynch on scum) scum are benefiting from the lynch being delayed. Even if we do manage to get another lynch goin, clearly they could also claim Dr and we'd be back here. Unless we can lynch con, please can we just hammer papi?

[Bellaphant]

He = papi, obvs. Thoughts About the above fracas when not phone posting

[Bellaphant]

It's also a terrible strategy because of how trackers work, surely? It wouldn't give a conclusive answer (sorry if I've misundeirstood) and would waste that opportunity to find better info?

[Bellaphant]

Conman - other than the claim, is there anything to make you think he is town?

[Bellaphant]

Sorry, extending that question to wrong song aa well - why? Saying ''you think ' isn't clear enough at this point.

[Bellaphant]

@bbt, yeah, that. No way the end of that post shouldn't have been a vote for me...made no sense.

@sen, 606 608 you never responded to me, after trashing my thoughts on papi 's catch up. You seriously see no issues with his post?

[Bellaphant]

Also, @sen, tthat's not what you said to me. You dismissed my whole post as me focusing on a language issue. My biggest point was, wouldn't tow, at l-, make a case on actaul scum?! Rather than be apathetic to the lynch.

[Bellaphant]

Apparently Flubber looks more town as scum. o.0

We've got 1 mafia and a sk left, yes?

[Bellaphant]

I don't even know who he was addressing: was it not the thread at large about FA's vote, and the 'flub is scum' conversation that happened on page 5.

Also, Flub rvs-ed, ConMan, engaged with Ric about CM, was ready to vote plot (but didn't?), focused on far with the con+me v fluff debate, scum-read far, got into a disagreement with FA, randomly called me scum, voted for papi BUT supported a con-lynch tomorrow (or was moving in line with 'town' opinion, was buddying? The Reverend, disagreed with Sen, tried to flash wagon Con, was trying to get con to hammer, suddenly wants to lynch Sen.

Okay, not sure what to make of that, will come back it later.

[Bellaphant]

Just some of the VCs

Spoiler:

(3)Flubbernugget:ConManMick, Senator, FA_Q2
(221)

(7)Papi Bear:BlueBloodedToffee, farside, Ricastle, Plotinus, Flubbernugget, RationalMadman, Bellaphant

(6)Papi Bear:BlueBloodedToffee, Ricastle, Plotinus, Flubbernugget, RationalMadman, Bellaphant
(Missing Farside)

(6)Papi Bear:BlueBloodedToffee, Ricastle, Plotinus, Flubbernugget, RationalMadman, Bellaphant (No change)

(8)Papi Bear:BlueBloodedToffee, Ricastle, Plotinus, Flubbernugget, RationalMadman, Bellaphant, The Reverend, lane
(4)RationalMadman: Davesaz, FA_Q2, Wrong Song, ConManMick

(We've gained The Reverend and Lane and a counter has sprung up)

(5)Papi Bear:Plotinus, RationalMadman, Bellaphant, The Reverend, lane
(4)RationalMadman: Davesaz, FA_Q2, Wrong Song, ConManMick
(4)ConManMick:farside, flubbernugget, Ricastle, BlueBloodedToffee

(Lost: BBT, Ricastle, Flubber, 3 counter wagons now)

(7)Papi Bear:Plotinus, RationalMadman, Bellaphant, lane, BlueBloodedToffee, Ricastle, flubbernugget
(5)RationalMadman: Davesaz, FA_Q2, Wrong Song, ConManMick, farside

(Gained: BBT, Ric, Flubber, Lost: The Reverend)

(9)Papi Bear:Plotinus, RationalMadman, Bellaphant, lane, BlueBloodedToffee, Ricastle, flubbernugget, The Reverend, FA_Q2
(4)RationalMadman: Davesaz, Wrong Song, ConManMick, farside

(Gained: The Reverend, FA)

People never voting for Papi: Dave, Wrong, Conman, Sen, Papi (obv) the choof slot,

[Bellaphant]

@Dave, the only wagons that even kinda started were flub, lane, conman and me.

Then, after the papi wagon, rational and con.

If you are correct about scum 'probing' wagons then that might be interesting, but there were also no HUGE wagons: I think the most was 4/5 votes.

[Bellaphant]

@wanderer, can you explain a bit more your reads on: lane, sen, the reverend and RMM? I don't think RMM is SK right now.

[Bellaphant]

Eh, maybe it's the total lack of content: I agree with what sen said about the SK being able to read people well, and there's no indication of that. Of course, SK could be laying low on purpose, but I do wonder if they'd need to have some more interaction with slots to hit on maf.

Also interesting is that scum didn't hit a Pr last night.

Never played an SK or really had any interaction with them. From the wiki it looks like their win-con can be different?

[Bellaphant]

Thanks

[Bellaphant]

Or, maybe a terrible idea, but because of the elements could people say.. 'if I was the Dr I used element x on y'

[Bellaphant]

Any reason in particular you asked me for those reads?

Good question They are people I am having particular difficulty in sorting/would like a fresh perspective on. It might not even be alignment indicative, just a play style issue, but thanks.

VOTE: Senator

He really tried his best to stop that Papi wagon going through.

I need to read what's happened since the Day started but it's late and I'm tired so probably tomorrow.

Would scum be this obvious, though? I'd also look at the VCA and see if any of the people on and off the wagon are suspect.

If I'm Thirdparty I would be more active.

This is really weak, though. Esp after the PL stuff

So I was very wrong about papi. That was a learning experience. Down to a goon and the SK, I like those odds. Going to go over wagons that formed yesterday, see if anything sticks out.

Ugh, Con might be town o.0

Get the fuck in.

The ricastle kill is also fantastic because I had him as scum after reading through. I assume scum are SK hunting here.

I'm with the family until tomorrow so my activity will be minimal until I'm back home.

Why is the ric kill fantastic? Sorry, I'm not parsing this.


@BBT, I mostly like your reads-list, but am confused about a couple. I might need to re-read a few people.

I had a town read on senator but I'll check into what you said bbt.
I also had a rev SK theory in my head.

Farside, can you explain these two reads a little? 'had' or 'have'? If the former, what changed?

[Bellaphant]

@the rev. I asked you a question in 941, can you clarify for me? More on the rest later

[Bellaphant]

@bela: day to day lynches and talk can change my views on players.
Senator was more based on his post and rev sk was more a paranoid feeling then absolute

I got this, but can you expand a little on this?

Wanderer's posts are good, but I'm a little confused over whether the SK would intentionally go for scum-first, or not. This could also work vice-versa.

The ricastle kill was good from my pov because I thought he was scum and was planning to swing for him today. I'd be tunnelling him if he hadn't got killed.

A few people seemed to be getting a scum-vibe from Ric yesterday: I wonder if scum thought he was the SK and tried to take him out. (Can I get a sense-check here?)

i'm the chocolate townie jk

WTH is this?

Holy hell day 2 got off to a start. Nice work bbt. No idea how you did that. I caught up on the day but it's clear that if I want to contribute anything I'll have to do some research.

What the hell is that shit madman?

VOTE: senator

Can you explain your vote?

Also, in the early game, WrongSong was on two alternate wagons to the early Flubber one (Con and Lane)

Looking at the later RMM counter wagon doesn't seem productive, because I can see town motivation for pretty much all of those votes.

[Bellaphant]

Rev, it almost looks like an out for being a bit scummy, or sk-y. The point about me and flub felt really reached foR.

[Bellaphant]

Point. Rev didn't revote after that terrible /odd claim. Rmm needs to explain her thinking there.

[Bellaphant]

con, is your hardy essay over? You make much more sense today

mod, think wrongsong is due a prod

My main worry about the Rmm slot is that they would be lynch bait later, if town, and scum night wanna keep them around.

[Bellaphant]

sorry alchemist! That is tiny writing on my phone.

[Bellaphant]

point. I'm probably Making things more complicated than they are. We can leave it for now

[Bellaphant]

I agree with that last post at least. Also, would we all agree that as town, even if a PR, there is no benefit to lying?

[Bellaphant]

I also meant lying in general. I'm not advocating mass claim yet. Sorry for asking stupid questions.

[Bellaphant]

Oh my, I just tried to meta RMM.

[Bellaphant]

I got through a game and a half :S

[Bellaphant]

Yeah,even I think con is probably town at this point.

[Bellaphant]

Nah, I think you are wrong here lane. It was pretty obvious Papi was the lynch for the day, and flub was clearly after the town-cred of bussing papi. I don't think anyone was expecting the flub kill night one. Con was easy lynch-bait day 1, so flub's posting makes perfect sense to set him up as a mislynch day 1.

[Bellaphant]

@bbt, why wrong song?

Everyone! Would scum try to kill (or lynch) the SK? Or would they PR hunt first?

[Bellaphant]

What wanderer said.

I can understand that the scum wanted to kill the SK, as that way a threat (as the SK doesn't have to persuade a bunch of people to vote and just take one out). I think the night-kill came from someone who was worried Ric was the SK.

So, who had a 'scum-read' on ric day 1? Far (kinda), lane (at least in the early game, not sure if this changed), BBT (kinda) and Rev. Con didn't mention him much (spoke to him once, no obvious thoughts on him), FA the same, Dave and RMM didn't mention them and plot, wrong, me and sen were towning him.

Put that together with people being off and on the papi wagon I'm looking for scum in: far, rev, lane, (maybe dave), bbt, rev and FA.

I've got town-reads on about half of them. Have at, guys.

[Bellaphant]

887 Shows people who moved on and off the Papi wagon once it had built momentum. I think scum were torn between bussing an obvious lynch for town-cred, and not losing a member day 1. I could be way off here, but it interested me how many people fell onto both of my lists.

It is a long list, and I said I'm town-reading around half of them. In order of reads, it'd probably be:

Town:
bbt and FA

Undecided:
Far
Lane

Maybe scum:
Rev (a lot of theory posting today, which makes me feel better about this slot, but his reaction to the night kill really pinged me)
and

VOTE: dave

[Bellaphant]

Wow.

Wrong's analysis really didn't work for me and her lynch pool is worse.

UNVOTE: dave for now.

[Bellaphant]

BBT, I'm not quite seeing it. I'm gonna iso her. Also, out of your list of 'RMM/Farside/Wrong/Dave' we've had three claimed PRs. I dunno what to make of that.

Also, FA, have a town-read.

What if a PR had a result?

[Bellaphant]

Yeah, he probably should wait. Just thinking about fa's post.

Oh, p-edit: sorry, FA: I am giving you a town read (reading you as town) and I assume TheRev's post has answered the second.

Eh, have you also got any strong town-reads?

p-edit again: wut, bbt??

Also, ppp-edit, I'm a girl Rev!

[Bellaphant]

? Is this where we do the pop-corn thing?

[Bellaphant]

I think BBT is saying he isn't a PR, so scum wouldn't kill him tonight? I dunno?

[Bellaphant]

So you think we've got 4 already?

[Bellaphant]

Out of game nonsense

A truly disproportionate amount of peeps in this thread have the UK as their location. I hope you've voted!

[Bellaphant]

I understand popcorn to mean you nominate who is claiming next?

[Bellaphant]

I'm happy(ish) with that.

[Bellaphant]

RGR?

[Bellaphant]

Nope.

[Bellaphant]

BBT, if you thought that, why didn't you Popcorn Rev instead? Far's posted to say she won't be posting today.

[Bellaphant]

@plot, bbt, I don't get your conversation?

[Bellaphant]

Surely Scum/SK also want to kill each other?

(also, Con, I dunno if I agree, but I lol-ed)

[Bellaphant]

1241, 1247, 1248 Is the conversation I don't get. Plot just said they don't get it even though BBT said they had it exactly. *baffled*

[Bellaphant]

Will you explain either way?

[Bellaphant]

In a sec, far: can you clarify the first bit of your post first? (head-cold, beer, election night = idiot)

[Bellaphant]

Sure, I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

I claim PR.

Popcorn to lane, I guess.

[Bellaphant]

:S

[Bellaphant]

Eh, my emoticon was about that claims list. Like BBT said, everyone he scum-read (nearly) claimed PR.
)

[Bellaphant]

...I'm okay with that theory.

p-edit, bbt's theory

[Bellaphant]

Wrong, dave and kinda rmm were on my scum list too. Guess someone might still CC.

I've popcorned Lane, btw.

[Bellaphant]

I'd rather have everyone claim first, though.

[Bellaphant]

Let's not make any plans yet.

[Bellaphant]

Dave: PR
Wrong: PR
RMM: PR
Bella: PR

Plotinus: VT
FA: VT
BBT: VT
Farside: VT
Senator: VT
Lane: VT

[Bellaphant]

Con, Wander and Rev to go, yeah?

[Bellaphant]

I'm not trying to suggest an order.

going to bed when Nuneaton declares

[Bellaphant]

? lane?

[Bellaphant]

BBT, that's kinda intense inference!

I'm done for tonight. More tomorrow. Waiting for Wanderer.

[Bellaphant]

I was expecting flavour kills, yeah.

[Bellaphant]

Yeah, can we not lynch anyone just yet.

[Bellaphant]

If the back up doc or the tracker has claimed vt I want them to claim pr. Anyone who has an issue with this should tell me. Do we need to popcorn this as well?

[Bellaphant]

Yeah, I want to know if I can trust those claims and a back up claiming vt is just complicating it.

[Bellaphant]

Happy to full claim when not phone postin. Pls no lynching before then?

[Bellaphant]

Okay, so I asked us not to lynch anyone before I full claimed?

I'm gonna come out with it: I'm the tracker. I got a result on The Reverend. He was tracked to Ricastle last night.

I've kept quiet because I was wondering if he'd claim Doc. But, I now know he is a) scum and b) was SK hunting last night.

Evidence on top:

He was on and off the Papi wagon and his read on him was off (Sen has picked up on this)
662 Calls Ric the SK
919 Is very clever, but he basically just admitted it.

He CAN'T be the doc: 1425

He pushed a bunch of 'scum-reads' who were town. He got lucky/unlucky in the fact most of them claimed PR. He's now pushing BBT, who scum-read him from the start. His day 2 posting looks really good - hell, it made me think I was wrong and he WAS a doc who protected the wrong element and was being clever about it - but it's easy to push scum-reads as scum and a lot of it has been theory.

He's scum and he killed Ric last night.

VOTE: The Reverend

Protect me tonight.

[Bellaphant]

?

[Bellaphant]

You said that about Lane too, you can't be that good at this. Pics or it didn't happe, bbt

[Bellaphant]

? How did you 'know'?

Also, you might still be so for all I know. But I doubt that it. He's scum.

[Bellaphant]

I think we rely on Bella to be amazing again.

That sounds like a good plan.

I like this! Seriously, though, how did you know? Or you just glory hunting

Haha don't let this fool y'all. I'm near certain that toffee is SK. Don't let him win.

Shame the tracker tagged me. You'd never have got me otherwise.

Nah, you must have done something to make me track ya

Seriously, town, we could win tonight flawlessly. Don't hammer Rev 'til we have a plan. I think Docs can state which protect they are gonna use, cover me, we find scum (this bit we need to work on!) and we win.

[Bellaphant]

@Rev, when did you slip?

[Bellaphant]

Hmm, I actually was okay with that. Also, BBT, you are avoiding my question

[Bellaphant]

Cool, I thought you'd spotted my super-sneaky crumb.

[Bellaphant]

We can't lynch untik the docs have agreed how to protect me. Anyone derp hammering is the sk.

[Bellaphant]

What Far said.

Also, can the docs give their Top Two SK picks??

[Bellaphant]

A few people have mentioned plot: why?

[Bellaphant]

Yeah, I would nevee have tracked that

[Bellaphant]

Can you give me today to decide? Thanks (and thanks docs)

[Bellaphant]

Thanks. Even if I get this wrong we have confirmed town, right?

[Bellaphant]

I Don't think it's gonna be bbt. Hmm.

[Bellaphant]

We should what, pissenkop?

[Bellaphant]

...you said I was scum all game, lane!

P-edit, you had town mostly fooled, rev. Shame I have a really suspicious gut instinct

[Bellaphant]

*pressure*

[Bellaphant]

....

Wow. Someone's feeling confident.

[Bellaphant]

None. Which proves nothing. To me this suggests scum thinks they can bluff out a mislynch?

[Bellaphant]

Or, the reverse: we either have super-sneaky scum, or over-confident scum. I dunno which right now.

[Bellaphant]

Yeah. Or, they did no-kill so we couldn't clear anyone?

[Bellaphant]

Yeah. I'm half tempted to speed wagon someone...

[Bellaphant]

@Sen, explain FA to me

[Bellaphant]

Maybe everyone needs to do a reads list. Anyone in the bottom half of everyone's list is lynchable. 'Til then, I'm gonna look at the vote counts.

[Bellaphant]

True.

I'd rather lynch anyone but bbt, but I'm probably wrong and he's gonna laugh at me. I'll hammer if necessary and then the plan should be the same: I'll track who I tracked last night and the docs use the same protect.

I'm not gonna out who I tracked, it's pointless right now. Tomorrow I'll tell both?

[Bellaphant]

(Was it the roller-blading and wine? Seriously, take care) Yeah, we need to narrow down the VT pool. SK is gonna kill pretty randomly in it (if they don't go for the docs), so...

[Bellaphant]

I mean, the SK could just give up...

I'll hammer bbt if it comes to it, but I'd prefer sen/fa/far.

Also, what far said about the drs is correct.

[Bellaphant]

It's actually a compliment: whoever did the flub kill n1 was good at this. Seriously

I don't understand your second point.

[Bellaphant]

?

[Bellaphant]

Point. She's stubborn (<3)

VOTE: Senator

[Bellaphant]

choo choo.

Docs know what to do, right?

p-edit, is this a confession?

[Bellaphant]

How do you mean?

[Bellaphant]

Unclaimed earth, surely? Will post thoughts later.

[Bellaphant]

Yeah- if a)we hadn't hit scum day 1 (which is unlikely, normally) and b) I didn't have a result, things would be different. For one, I wouldn't have supported mass claim, we'd have lynched a doc and had a lot less options.

[Bellaphant]

Hamma time!!

[Bellaphant]

When it's plot or wanderer we're gonna look silly.

[Bellaphant]

Trolling?

First night it was a toss up between you, rev and lane. If you are serious then my scum-dar is pretty good

[Bellaphant]

proper thoughts later but n1 I had papi/rev/lane as scum with senator as sk (I tracked him last night). maybe knowing I ccan be outed as conf-town is good for my scum hunting!

Thanks everyone! Sorry about d1, con, but even flub thought you were scum :p

[Bellaphant]

Thing is, if rev had claimed doc he could've said he used a different element on ric than the one that killed him and was in the clea: would people really have lynched him over Rmm?

[Bellaphant]

Gg all and thanks to alchemist for modding and answering my stupid questions.

[Bellaphant]

Hi Mal!