Mini Normal 1460 - Normalville Mafia (GAME OVER)
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Slandaar Survivor
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Ugh
I feel like trying something different...
I want everyone to answer these;
What is your favourite alignment and why?
What is your favourite role and why?
Me; I like being a town neighbour because I enjoy having a thread to scumhunt in during the night; gives me something to do; and I prefer the scumhunting aspect of the game over the imascumbag side hence town neighbour.
I guess neighbour isn't actually a role but meh I am counting it.-
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My questions have a point to them being that favourite alignment and to a lesser extent role can give insight into how engaged with the game you should expect that person to be if they are town (and if they are scum).
Anyways, my friend, you seem an intelligent guy who understands RVS and RQS so can you explain why my questions are worse than those random votes that achieved nothing?-
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Nope.In post 17, Grimgroove wrote: WIFOM much?
Interest in ones role is related to their engagement in the game; where is the WIFOM?
What is the purpose of this?In post 23, Baezu wrote:It would be cool if this would actually turn out to be a crumb later on in the game
So, you have one link to one scum using RQS and you think this makes it a scumtell?In post 26, PeregrineV wrote:The action:
See this game/post. Yes, the number has gone down, but it's reliable enough as a starting point.
I see.
Nice bland explanation when we are talking about the votes in this game.In post 36, Red Dragon wrote: Random votes start wagons and get reactions from those under pressure, sets up association, sparks discussion about the game. Banter doesn't do any of that.
What pressure and reactions are you going to achieve when everyone knows the votes are random?
The point of RVS is to escalate discussion RQS does the same thing. Afterall my questions clearly sparked discussion and got reactions.
So, what useful information did you get from the random votes in this thread?
Its theory, bad theory but its theory.In post 45, Baezu wrote: How is this not the scummiest thing you've ever heard?-
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I feel like being nice
Don't take offense over it. Being new isn't a bad thing; it doesn't mean you are bad it just means you probably won't understand all the theory etc.In post 38, BP wrote: Just because I voted no lynch doesn't mean that I'm necessarily new to the game, FYI.
OK the key to knowing if you should lynch or nolynch on D1 is the number of players in the game.In post 49, BP wrote: A mislynch on d1 is NOT better, IN MY OPINION, because I much rather, as I said, analyze the kill's info based on day behaviour that analyzing day behaviour
In mini normals always assume one scumteam, one scum team one kill per night so;
13->12 on N1 so D2 12 people alive; assume no vig etc and this leads us to a situation where we have to nolynch AGAIN later down the line this means we have lost a lynch over where we would have been if we had just lynched Day 1. Therefore lynching D1 is infinitely better than Nolynch in 13man game.
Do the full math if you don't understand why there is a lost lynch; losing a lynch is very very bad for town.
In a game with 12 players; its more debatable. Theoretically nolynching there D1 gives the PR's an extra night while making the odds as low as possible for scum to shoot the PR's N1. This means that you have more information for the first lynch which would be on D2. Now the scum will mostly kill the stronger townies on the N1 this actually will balance the information gain from PR's slightly. The information gained from NK analysis is well... its actually GOOD when you have a lot of meta on everyone in the game but in a game with this playerlist (-1)? wouldn't do much at all. Then there is the fact you can lynch D1, Nolynch D2 and be in a similar situation but I have had enough explaining now as this is a 13p so this is less relevant.-
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Slandaar
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@Baezu: you are town, take a breath and listen: I am town, Grim and BP are likely both town, If someone believes nolynch is the best option D1, they will think it as both town and scum hence its not alignment indicative as it will probably be pushed as both alignments from them.
Preemptive Defence; Worried about how his random vote will be perceived; if you are town why worry as you have done nothing wrong.In post 61, thegooner wrote: My vote for Elyse was because I didn't realize the RVS had ended.
His Grim vote is just arguing about theory which isn't legit scumhunting and that is all hes talked about.
Also; I voted him he posted 2 seconds later and he didn't bat an eyelid.-
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Lets look at this wagonIn post 223, ac1983fan wrote:Future (6) - grimgroove, chernobylcitybus, BP, Baezu, Nachomamma8, Slandaar (L-1)
Grim is town
Cher maybe town, he made one good post
BP is town
Baezu is town.
Nacho hmmmm.
I am town
Looks good.-
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I am proposing we wait for the slot to claim and post any content they have either as Future or as a Replacement because that is clearly good.In post 275, Red Dragon wrote: Well you are basically proposing, "let's let him get replaced and let the replacement catch up and decide that he is town so that we don't lynch my scum bud." That's the vibe I get from your post. It may be incorrect, but that is for the flip to happen.
What do you think should happen? Hammer with no claim?
I see.-
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Slandaar
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That wagon is dead Red Dragon. If you are town you better shape up quickly.
Also; You kind of avoided my question, I say wait for replacement you say lolscum with Future! So, what was your preferred option? Hammer him without a claim? This is the only logical alternative... he was at L-1 so why didn't you?-
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OK I know I mentioned this line earlier but its bad on so many levels; It shows he wasn't interested in trying to end RVS he only voted 'seriously' when he thought everyone else was. It also shows how he is worried about it even though if he were town there is nothing to be worried about.In post 61, thegooner wrote: My vote for Elyse was because I didn't realize the RVS had ended.
So this whole post is about Theory its such an inconsequential thing from Grim but Gooner votes him over it because he disagrees.In post 61, thegooner wrote:
I disagree wholeheartedly. During the night, the mafia have to act together. They choose as a team which player's interactions get analyzed. If someone is fingering the entire mafia team, they may leave them alive over the player that has fingered all civs to try and get mislynches. They may do the opposite for supreme WIFOM. During the day, mafia can deliberately not interact or choose to interact in certain ways to deceive. If a mafia gets pegged, then they can dig to keep suspicion away from any teammates. A night kill has no deception; that player is killed. No matter what, that player is getting analyzed the next day, and the lynch that follows generally reveals why mafia made that night hit.In post 59, Grimgroove wrote:I personally think daytime activity (votes, posts, hammers, ...) are much easier to analyse than night kill-decisions.
UNVOTE: Elyse
VOTE: Grimgroove
My vote for Elyse was because I didn't realize the RVS had ended.
Now, at this point in the game BP No Lynch stuff had just begun, he completely ignored that, COMPLETELY. There is no mention at all of that he just attacks some other Theory.
More Theory TalkIn post 61, thegooner wrote: Nope, not from EM. But counterclaims yield a mafia member nearly 100% of the time. If we are claiming in a lylo situation, then the game is pretty much a 50-50 RNG at that point. As for fake night actions, unless I'm mistaken, mafia make kills each night. If that's not the case and they can no kill, then my previous statement starts to lose water. I fully understand that mafia WIFOMs plenty, but at the end of the day (or in this case, night), someone is killed, and the town gets to analyze. If it was a WIFOM and the night kill was a decoy, then the next lynch/night kill should reveal that.
And if scum make mistakes, then it doesn't matter if we lynch or not. If a scum becomes obvious, then of course we lynch them.I'm saying that a no lynch on the first day is not a pro-town proposition.
Note the bolded: hes not actually saying that at all and it completely contradicts with 'And if scum make mistakes, then it doesn't matter if we lynch or not'
'Also, in a 13 man game where the pool is already small, why not just shut up and die? Why fight so hard on Day 1 to not be lynched?'In post 167, thegooner wrote: This post has my mafia sensors blaring in my head. It's a combination of all CAPS words, frustration, and also some semi-surrendering ("I will just have to wait for the mafia to NK me n1 to show you my role PM"). In my experience, bringing up PM info to avoid being lynched is usually scummy. Also, in a 13 man game where the pool is already small, why not just shut up and die? Why fight so hard on Day 1 to not be lynched? Usuallyif I'm civ and getting FOS'd by people early in games, I put my head down and work twice as hard to find mafia. It does no good to overly defend early in games because that's what mafia wants. The longer a round goes with suspicion and discussions pointed towards a civ, the easier it is for mafia to hide. A civ death can be extremely helpful for civs in the long run.
VOTE: Baezu
Seriously. Read this.
The bolded tells you he is scum. He is being FOS'ed early in this game but has he put his head down and worked twice as hard? lolno. He is just spouting nonsense.
'The longer a round goes with suspicion and discussions pointed towards a civ, the easier it is for mafia to hide. A civ death can be extremely helpful for civs in the long run.'
I mean read it. Just read it.
Gooner is scum.-
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1. Not completely sure he was trying to hammerIn post 311, Baezu wrote:@ slandaar why did you jump on the future wagon so quickly, esp if you were not sure he was scum? Also, don't you think darthe is suspicious for trying to hammer after sunnydays posted?
2. I think it is the natural reaction to that ridiculous claim.-
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OK good so it was a serious vote, so how much had you read before making the wall and voting Future?In post 474, Nachomamma8 wrote:
Gut.In post 457, Slandaar wrote:Nacho explain your initial Elyse vote-
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The reason Elyse needs lynching is thus;
The BP ERA
We all remember BP suggesting no lynch, doesn't matter your opinion on this right now, the question is; What was Elyse's? You won't find it because it isn't there.
The Future Wagon
Doesn't matter what you think/thought about the wagon, what matters is, what did Elyse think about it? Well let me show you.
'I support the wagon' That is her opinion, no reasons why except 'Darthe could be a buddy'In post 244, Elyse wrote:[
@RedDragon
What is your read on future? And why?
I still think thegooner is scummier than Future but I 100% support a Future lynch. I still want to give both of them time to actually interact with others.
Future might be a better lynch anyway because Darthe has been tippy-toeing around his lynch and subtly trying to stall it. If Future is scum it would be very telling.
The Red Dragon Wagon
Doesn't matter what you think about the wagon, again, what does Elyse think? there is in fact a little more here (I think they are buddies, however, moving on)
Sheep vote, meh.In post 334, Elyse wrote: But yes I do agree with you about RedDragon.
Actually I'd rather lynch him anyway.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: RedDragon
This is pretty ridiculous lets be honest.In post 345, Elyse wrote:I think RedDragon is bluffing or something.
He says that he's willing to be lynched, but then asks if we want him to claim? What's that about? If you want to be lynched, what's the point of claiming and possibly stalling your lynch?
Wording here is interesting its not 'because you are scum' or some variation its 'Tough love'In post 403, Elyse wrote:@RedDragon
I'm "attacking" you because you need some tough love and are acting like a whiny baby for no reason. Come on now.
Laughable. Course he can, it was an easy lynch so scum are likely to opportunistically jump on from his perspective this is perfectly fine.In post 441, Elyse wrote:@RD
Glad to see you un-self vote but you can't possibly call anyone scum for being on your wagon opportunistically.
Note the Darthe buddy stuff earlier was regarding how he acted around the Future wagon, these accusations stand alone and as such Darthe should have been questioned by Elyse or mentioned again once the Future wagon died out from Elyse; but he wasn't until later where everyone is calling him Town, so she does too.
The fact is she kind of follows the crowd around (something hard to show; I didn't try to here just reread and you will see it) and her opinions on the major events are hard to find. This is very indicative of scum and should be lynched.-
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Obviously Don't respond to this wall with a wall but here I will break your case down for you;
Meh. Town do that scum do that I don't really care especially when its Ztife.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote: Posts 86 and 144 are just statements he'll be catching up, after he arrived late in the game. Post 86 dates from the 14th of June.
Yep thats all he has done, bout all Darthe and Red Dragon had done also.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote: On the 17th of June, 3-4 days later, he presents us with post 161. At first sight this looks like an impressive block of text, but all it is is a rehash of the game theory discussions of what has been going on. Based on this, he starts a case against BP, who Ztife will be tunneling throughout the rest of the game based on this case. In 161 no other arguments are given besides this game theory disagreement, aside from a particularly agressive take on BP's post 112, which he chooses to read in the worst possible light.
See what I said above, this makes sense in context.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote: The following that happens is that Darthe gives him a townread for this awful post, and me putting question marks around this by stating what I just stated here.
Doesn't really matter, if he thinks BP is scum then you really only need one super strong scumread as you can only vote one.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
He admits to only be interested in BP, while at the same time admitting he hasn't taken a closer look to other posts.In post 191, Ztife wrote:@Grim
Ok, I see. I admit I haven't take much of a closer look at alot of posts yet,but atm the only thing that interest me is BP.
What do you think of his hesitation then? It was not so much of an NL, but more of the lack of explaination for his own push and then the wavering opinions about it.
Yep hes not contributing much, we get that, this doesn't mean too much.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote: This hints at a bias from the very start of the game, because why would he decide to take a closer look at BP's posts and not at others? He had 3-4 days of catching up, yet all he managed to do was read BP's posts?
Note that now suddenly, as opposed to 161, the game theory disagreement in itself is suddenly no longer the problem, and the sidenote and agressive interpretation of 112 suddenly become the center of his "case". I responded to his question, but he never bothered to respond that that answer, probably because it didn't fit his story.
Note the promise he'll be catching up on the Future-wagon. All these promises of catching up sound to me like someone who doesn't put much effort into scumhunting and buys himself some time.
Didn't catch up, yep, but is he scum for it? eh.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote: In post 201 we still see nothing of this supposed catching up with the Future-wagon, but just see another remark towards BP. BP is obviously still his only interest, and all this still based on this game theory discussion. If the case were strong I'd agree, but this kind of tunneled commitment is entirely unwarranted.
Case on BP bad? yep, but so were Darthe and Red Dragons; don't really care about it.
MehIn post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
I see a lot of second-guessing and on the fence sitting. He starts the sentence with "Can't get any reads" and ends in the same way, and in between there's something that's supposed to speak in Future's favor (I don't actually understand the part about semi-serious posting), and one against Future for an overreaction. While I don't understand the first point, i don't believe it makes much sense. The second point definitely makes no sense. Future barely responded to my case. He overreacted to the deletion of his supposed defense, but he never really responded to my case.In post 220, Ztife wrote:Don't really have any reads on future tbh since it looks like mostly semi-serious posting in RVS. Seems to be over-reacting though with the case from Grim, but I can't really read anything.
Meh, yes but we had THREE people chase this case similar lengths of time they are not all scum.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
More game theory talk, trying to enforce his flimsy case against BP through repetition. His last sentence is very unclear, but I think it refers again to BP's stating he wouldn't mind a NL and BP's participation in voting wagons. An argument to which I reacted before, but Ztife casually ignored.'That's false, NL and mislynch technically similar for scum. Both situations requires 3 mislynches after to win. If we're lynching D1 scum will be forced to make a decision of joining a wagon or not and shit, if its NL everyone would just sit back and relax.
Also, my point is it does not seem like he is arguing for it and actively defending it, quite the contrary actually.'
Fair point.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
These "then again" posts seem very scummy to me. Very on the fence and secondguessing, again no clear read. Note that up to this point he has given no read on anyone apart from BP.In post 221, Ztife wrote: This.
Then again, I never quite gotten understanding slandaar and his voting and explainations in a couple of games anyway.
Eh hes sure BP is scum and doesn't understand why BP isn't dead, its reasonable town do it a lot.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
First of all: hypocrite. If anyone's been tunneling on anyone, it's Ztife on BP. And why does lack of pressure on one person make it harder to get into a game? This game is more than just about BP. His reasons for not being able to get into the game make no sense, and are an easy excuse for his broken promises.In post 320, Ztife wrote:TBH, I'm finding it hard to get into this game, mainly with the lack of pressure on BP and the tunneling (or the tunneling awhile back) of Future.
As I said earlier it makes sense for Darthe to townread Ztife.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
Given Darthe's earlier generous townread and this weak attempt at some form of criticism, I wouldn't be surprised when I see a Darthe-Ztife-Elyse scumteam. (Elyse got added for reasons unexplained in this post, but Ztife's vote on Nachomamma and the connection between Darthe and Elyse that's been pointed out earlier are the principal reasons).
The bolding, the lack of colon after mod reminder, and a crucial hammering vote. Seems sloopy/fake. Hmm.In post 288, Darthe wrote:Bullshit. <b>unvote vote sunnydays </b>
It is a bad comment though yes.
I think this is a towntell.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
Beating a dead horse. By removing the SunnyDays vote we actually dropped the tunnel he claimed to regard as an impediment to get into the game, yet here I can only see disappointment when we actually do move the vote for reasons that have been explained adequately.
What do you think he was misreading then? SunnyDays just seems to be posting crap claims and OMGUS voting, someone please explain to me the reasoning how is he town.In post 300, Grimgroove wrote:UNVOTE:
I think I see what happened here. SunnyDays simply misread his role-pm.
Nothing as honest as a mistake. SunnyDays is town and I was wrong about Future.
Think about how you reacted to the claim, it makes sense, Ztife doesn't 'get' it.
Meh Ztife has this impression of me that is just very far from the truth; I remember him suggesting I was mislynch fodder for scum once (as town). That was amusing.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:309
The case is mostly on gooner's theory talk with weak reasoning, I don't really see how scum could give out jumbled cases like this. Seems like genuine town with weak scum hunting. Need to see his reads and thoughts more, 5 posts does not warrant a confident read for me.
All of this criticism applies to his own case on BP. This is an exercise of simultanously buddying to Slandaar by calling him a probtown, but at the same time trying to make him less of a threat in this topic by calling his cases jumbled and weak. This also reads as a weak defense for thegooner, but I don't think the gooner-slot is part of the scumteam. Sounds like a minor effort for a set-up.
I actually like that he engages PV.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
Same as above. Note there has been no substance with these criticism on the case against gooner, and also no clear read from Ztife on gooner. BP is still the only person Ztife gave a read on.
@PeregrineVIn post 314, PeregrineV wrote:Sunnydays is going to have to do a little better than that in the Future.
Damn I'm funny.
Vote:thegooner
How confident is your read on gooner? Any particular highlights why he seems scum to you?
Eh I don't mind that, it seems fine, I like that he is probing PV.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
Remember this.In post 339, Ztife wrote:
Not agreeing with this. ATM still seems pretty null to me.In post 330, Grimgroove wrote:thegooner obviously will be needing a replacement.
While we wait:
VOTE: Nachomamma8
No comment on the questions about gooner, so still no read from Ztife. all we get is another question about the already dead case on SunnyDays, also someone Ztife didn't give a read on. Only open questions without any follow-up.In post 331, PeregrineV wrote:
Answered this pre-tiger, but his first real post expresses a concern with the perception he may still be in RVS.In post 320, Ztife wrote:@PeregrineV
How confident is your read on gooner? Any particular highlights why he seems scum to you?
His second post was on mafia theory and his take on it.
Third was badly reasoned vote on Beazu.
Confidence is it's day1, so willing to listen to other arguments, but my own inferior scumhunting has brought me to this conclusion.
What of sunny's claim? Do you buy it?
This point is okIn post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
Poor answer, there have been plenty of votes without reasoning, notably from Nachomamma himself. His interest in my motivations could be explained by scum wanting to hop on a certain wagon he earlier claimed to disagree with.In post 371, Ztife wrote:
Because of a lack of reason, and because im interested in knowing what you have to say for the vote.In post 344, Grimgroove wrote:
If he's null to you, why bother singling out this vote on him in order to express your disagreement? I haven't seen you do that for votes on other people?In post 339, Ztife wrote:
Not agreeing with this. ATM still seems pretty null to me.In post 330, Grimgroove wrote:thegooner obviously will be needing a replacement.
While we wait:
VOTE: Nachomamma8
Best reason in this wall and in fact a good reason, basically, if you posted the last reason alone and said 'Lurking, promising content not delivered' that would have been a lot stronger looking case and more people would read it. Then again, you probably will think I am wrong and your points are right.In post 482, Grimgroove wrote:
Suddenly the SunnyDay's claim is less of an issue, he simply calls it ambiguous (still no clear read). Despite all the questions he asked about it before, he doesn't seem to care very much about the claim. Then why the questions?@Red Dragon
Heed this., Elyse"]
I think sunny's claim is incredibly ambiguous as well, but im more inclined to look at how the wagon is falling apart.
There's no deadline yet, so wait for gooner's slot to post.
Also he states he wants to see how the wagon fell apart? What does this mean? And where did he do that?
And this one takes the cake in scumminess. His shift from a null-read on Nachomamma to an L-2 (I'd call it an L-1 vote given the circumstances) without a satisfying explanation."An abstract case"? What is Ztife's case on Nachomamma then? He put him at L-2 over such a silly reason? Really?In post 461, Ztife wrote:5 days to deadline.
In the exchange between Elyse and Nacho, nacho's case seems abstract, Elyse gives me an overrall more town feel.
Unvote, Vote: Nachomamma8
BP is still my highest scum read though, I'll be happy to get this wagon if there's enough support.
As for RD, from the previous game I have been with him he seems to be the kind of player with such a "defeatist" playstyle. As such he reads town to me, although I don't agree with the self vote.
And BP still being his highest scumread, well, the case is weak, and BP was hardly here lately, not providing Ztife with extra arguments. This is just a way to show us he's got different possible trajectories, keeping an open-minded stance, but in all fairness: he's got nothing. He's got no cases, no reads, just a tunnel on BP and a very poor L-2 vote on Nachomamma.
Lynch him.-
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In post 125, Elyse wrote:Baezu does seem bloodthirsty.
Being willing to hammer on page 5 does not seem very townie.In post 142, Elyse wrote:
It's a bit early to be declaring you are town in caps. You have one vote on you. Why are you acting like you are about to be lynched or NK'd? Do you think you are that much of a priority for scum to kill?In post 137, Baezu wrote:You guys need to listen to Slandaar. I am TOWN. I swear to you. The reason that I want to lynch BP is because he just seems to me to REEK of scum so why not continue to try to push for someone that I feel is scum? That is also the reason I was not willing to move my vote. But, since people obviously cannot be convinced by my words I will just have to wait for the mafia to NK me n1 to show you my role PM. Maybe there is a doctor out there who is willing to protect me because as I said before, I am TOWN. Also, when I get killed will you please vote for BP. That is my dying wish. For now, I will vote with those who are more experienced and take their word that future is indeed scum. Hopefully you guys are right.
VOTE: Future
This post is interesting because it shows Elyse soft defending Baezu which is a change to her earlier stance of suspicion (which all her previous posts showed)In post 155, Elyse wrote:In post 143, Baezu wrote:@Elyse I just feel like scum will want to nk me because I've been causing a lot of ripples in the water and making accusations. Creating controversy is usually something scum wants to quiet. I know it may be early to use caps, but I wanted to emphasize the fact that I am indeed town. I'm not really worried about a lynch but I don't think people have to wait until they're at L-1 to make a case for their alignment. I want it to be clear to everyone that their votes need to be elsewhere. The fact that future's vote is on me is prob indicative that he is indeed scum. I'm not going to apologize for being eager in this game. It's because I know I'm town and I'm doing my best to ensure that votes go where they need to go.
I was going to respond to Baezu but BP took the words right out of my mouth.In post 145, BP wrote:I'm beginning to shift on the wholeBaezuthing. I am absolutely not sure whether she's town or guilty.
1. Just likeIn post 137, Baezu wrote:You guys need to listen to Slandaar. I am TOWN. I swear to you. The reason that I want to lynch BP is because he just seems to me to REEK of scum so why not continue to try to push for someone that I feel is scum? That is also the reason I was not willing to move my vote. But, since people obviously cannot be convinced by my words I will just have to wait for the mafia to NK me n1 to show you my role PM. Maybe there is a doctor out there who is willing to protect me because as I said before, I am TOWN. Also, when I get killed will you please vote for BP. That is my dying wish. For now, I will vote with those who are more experienced and take their word that future is indeed scum. Hopefully you guys are right.
VOTE: FutureElysesaid, caps-claims of innocence don't quite add up to the general play of the game. But they don't ring to me as scum; quite on the contrary, it comes to confirm my theory that Baezu may very well an innocent newbie. Until...
2. She moves her vote to thefuturepro's-driven wagon even tho she just explained why she was reluctant to move her vote. She doesn't appear very convinced thatFuture'sscum, but she'll join the town wagon anyways. Scum wagons for no reason other than to follow town.
I was hoping for a post that could clear up her alignment, but she posted this:
She clearly doesn't know how mafia operates. Creating controversy is precisely what scum wants, in order to confuse town and get a mislynch. (I think. You guys got me a bit insecure about my mafia theory. x) ) I thinkIn post 143, Baezu wrote:@Elyse I just feel like scum will want to nk me because I've been causing a lot of ripples in the water and making accusations. Creating controversy is usually something scum wants to quiet. I know it may be early to use caps, but I wanted to emphasize the fact that I am indeed town. I'm not really worried about a lynch but I don't think people have to wait until they're at L-1 to make a case for their alignment. I want it to be clear to everyone that their votes need to be elsewhere. The fact that future's vote is on me is prob indicative that he is indeed scum. I'm not going to apologize for being eager in this game. It's because I know I'm town and I'm doing my best to ensure that votes go where they need to go.Baezuis just a newbie. I have no idea about her alignment until we see a lynch and I see who she's been trying to kill oh-so-eagerly.
So yeah thegooner and Future are good lynches ATM.
Nacho pointed this out but yes; why would scum have a concern for life during the night? It doesn't make sense, it sounds good but in context is completely wrong.In post 244, Elyse wrote: I think a "concern for life" would be something scum has more than town.
In post 262, Elyse wrote:
Yeah you're going to have to die soon.In post 259, Baezu wrote:Let's just hammer him and see instead of all this WIFOM. And if I survive the nk we can talk about who's actually scummy tomorrow.
And even after others pointed out why you wouldn't be NK'd, you still have that "Oh, I'm going to be NK'd"
belief for no reason.In post 466, Elyse wrote:
Explain.In post 462, Baezu wrote:Ya, I'm REALLY feeling an ELyse/Darthe scum team based on the last two pages of posts
UNVOTE: Nachomamma
VOTE: Elyse
Now here is the point; This looks like distancing to the extreme; Elyse continually has thrown suspicion on Baezu while never really pushing it; she never voted her, now when the Elyse wagon happened Baezu jumped on as can be seen in a quote above (462 is the vote post) Baezu did this as a retaliation for Elyse throwing so much suspicion her way (yes scum do this it can be frustrating when people are throwing suspicion at you constantly because they are your buddy). See how Baezu is in fact the only person not to explain their Elyse vote now? yeah, Elyse doesn't push on Baezu or really draw attention to her even when her constant accusations would suggest Baezu to be Elyse's top scumread. 524 also is interesting wording when you look at things in this light.In post 524, Elyse wrote:Hey Baezu it'd be nice if you did something for once. Thanks.
Throw in Red Dragon who is defending her due to poor reasoning (his words Elyse ) When he couldn't see BP's no lynch idea was just poor reasoning and we have linked the three together.
I made the case on Elyse, she is independently very scummy, this should show the benefits of lynching her today and guide you all tomorrow, watch out for Nacho I am not convinced he is town but if Elyse flips scum he is town guaranteed.-
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Scum: Baezu and DragonIn post 650, Grimgroove wrote: Could you already point out how the falling into place-thing would happen for the scenario where she flips scum and for the scenario where she flips town? No harm in doing that in advance, right?
Town: Uh won't happen. Baezu, PV, Cher.-
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Baezu is odd night cop gets no result on n1.
Elyse: immma miller JOAT I gonna vig tonight and prove I am town!
Well guess whats gonna happen if Baezu is town? Its all so very very convenient.
Let me think a bit about this and the merits of massclaiming.
Elyse: Why did you not claim miller in your first post?-
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Why would the Mod do this?In post 795, Baezu wrote:The mod just informed me that I actually told him that I would investigate Slandaar.
It would actually be interfering with the game.
In post 795, Baezu wrote: The reason I was going to investigate him was because he was a null for me and I wanted to confirm or deny whether or not he's town. The mod just informed me that I actually told him that I would investigate Slandaar. Again, same reasoning for investigating him.In post 751, Baezu wrote: slandaar town-
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Lets just massclaim that is the solution and saves a lot of hassle.
RD
PV
Ztife
Cher
Sunny
Nacho
Stranger
Grim
Me
Massclaim allows us to find out what is going on NOW and that is important. Do not try to be clever and claim VT as a PR, we will be confirm towning Elyse/Baezu if there are not enough PR claims so do NOT fakeclaim as town. Doing so is hugely detrimental to the town, assumptions will be made based on what is claimed, by faking all you do is ensure those assumptions are wrong.-
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In post 18, Baezu wrote: My favorite role is cop because they win with the town but they have access to more information. When you play cop you have to analyze everyone's plays to try and figure out other town PRs as well as mafia and to know who to investigate at night.
See its funny because neither has said they breadcrumbed their role here.In post 29, Elyse wrote: My favorite role would have to be vig. I like being able to kill someone without anyone else weighing in.-
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To try and sound town. 'HEY GUYS I AM A PR' she did have a lot of heat on her and then today was all 'I will explain it tomorrow!'In post 803, Grimgroove wrote: Elyse's claim can't really be checked tonight for the same reasons Baezu's claim couldn't be checked. I'm always very wary of millers.
But, why would she ask not to be checked, if she knew the mafia had a blocker?
I have played a lot of mini normals and never seen such a ridiculous claim as Elyse's in them. Never. It just looks to me like she had to make up a claim to fit what she said so she came up with miller JOAT ... with a vig shot that amazingly can't go through if Baezu is town while it also gives her a free pass today.-
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See I have huge issues with this.
Why if you are breadcrumbing like this did you not breadcrumb your FULL ROLE?
Why did you not claim in your first post you are a miller?
It is just such a good defence as scum to do this... just leave out the role so you can choose that later.-
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It's really not that hardIn post 832, Elyse wrote:Oh come on. There wasn't much I could say with the letters J O A T that wouldn't look obvious.
Just so you guys all know On the 10th I Am not going To have much internet access.
Why didn't you claim in your first post? I see you keep avoiding this question.-
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lolIn post 838, Ztife wrote: I already anticipated this, son. You literally do this every game.
I do it when I feel it is most beneficial and right now is a very beneficial time as it clears up a lot of confusion.
OKIn post 838, Ztife wrote: Assuming things go according to your plan this will only ensure we reveal our town PRs, and assuming what baezu said is true about RB this will fuck us up bad.
Although, if its an RB/odd cop/JOAT miller I would expect a weak third town PR. Revealing this 3rd town PR would only fuck things up more.
Well, you have managed to make a good setup spec assumption, I agree, there is only one more PR IF note the if, IF both Elyse and Baezu are town. If they are both town, then it helps in a lot of ways.
We can analyse wagons with a lot more information a lot earlier, We can focus all of our attentions on finding scum instead of PR claims, It just generally narrows down the lynch pool and thus increases the chance to find scum.
When one or both are scum, what happens? lots of PR claim, we know there is then scum in the PR, we can make a sensible conclusion as to how many and then depending on this we can either lynch in the PR's (only if there is 2/3 scum) or we can lynch from the VT claims (if only one PR claim is going to be scum)
This means we again have narrowed down the lynch pool and are making much more informed lynches.
The only negative is sure scum know who are the PR's. But that really doesn't matter as scum can only kill one PR a day and IF Elyses claim is legit, then we won't have a doc etc it will be an even night watcher is my guess or something similar.-
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OK and when would you need to claim?In post 844, Elyse wrote:
So people would believe me later when I claimed.In post 842, Slandaar wrote:Let us assume you are a miller, you breadcrumbed as such, why did you decide to do that?-
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And that means the cop claimed because you didn't claim Miller.In post 854, Elyse wrote: am investigated
So, what benefits does breadceumbing have over claiming Miller?-
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There isn't any discussion to ever be had when you claim early;In post 856, Elyse wrote:It avoids pointless discussion at the beginning of the game about my miller status.
And even if claiming is optimal play, why am I scum for not playing optimally?
You are either town and a miller or scum gambitting the only way to work it out is judge you based on your play.
OK lets run through some things
You must have known it is important to cover yourself incase a cop investigates you hence the breadcrumb.The breadcrumb itself is useless absolutely useless unless there is a cop in the setup who investigates you. During any other situation Massclaim or Wagoned JOAT is your claim, Miller is not going to do anything. Breadcrumbing miller is very weak because it does not lock you into a ROLE Joat is your ROLE Miller is not.
However now lets think about it from your perspective as scum makes a lot more sense breadcrumb miller, if there is a cop, you show it and voila! maybe it works maybe it doesn't but can't hurt right?
So, what do I actually think at present...
I do not like either claim, however, the 2 actually work in tandem quite well, in fact the setup spec being a ScumRoleblocker, an odd night cop a Miller JOAT and then another PR which I have strong inclinations will be an even night something (watcher my guess) makes a lot of sense.
And... considering noone has counterclaimed either of you, I am going to go with both town.
So, who is actually scum...
VOTE: Red Dragon-
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The reason it is not worth vigging is because the vig targets are obvious - literally everyone in this game has the same scum suspects (from a pool of 4ish). In fact I will name them; Ztife, PV, RD, Cher.
Right? Everyone agrees with that I assume.
Which means they will probably be lynched anyways, thereby you really gain nothing by vigging them instead of lynching while tracking can just plain find scum with some luck (huge gain)
Basically because we only get one vig shot and that vig shot puts town to even numbers you don't gain a kill by vigging, you just lose information regarding wagons and interactions (applies to whatever the target flips)
The only benefit to vigging is it confirms Elyse, but, we have already decided she is town so there isn't a need for that.-
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The point is that the scum she would vig would in fact have been lynched near enough guaranteed, but with a lynch we can look at interactions and look at wagon analysis etc also.
And we are not gaining a kill with the vig shot, it is either A lynch or a vig shot we literally lose a lynch for the vig shot due to the numbers being evened by the shot.
Of course likely what will happen is scum roleblock Elyse, scum kill Elyse, so it doesn't matter too much, still, track seems a ton better.-
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