Mini Normal 1814 Machiavellian Mafia (Game Over)

[Comparing Realities]

I must admit, though I see little hope for democracy as an effective means of government, I admire the poetry of how it makes its victims complicit in their own destruction.

Hey, guys, sorry I was out for the first 24 hours--oh my gosh did you seriously already fill 14 pages? Well, then, no further prelude necessary. I'm reading, will post around noon or so mountain time.

[Comparing Realities]

What the crap. I wrote like two thousand words, clicked "save draft", and the draft wasn't saved.
...And I said a lot of really good smart things, too, things that were positively awesome and would have nailed scum like -boom you're dead-.
Suffice it to say I'm on page eleven and FOSing Ira, Black, and Maps.

[Comparing Realities]

Interested to see Comparing Realities 'first' post.

SHUT UP

[Comparing Realities]

I'm aware that this might make me look bad, but I think that I was wrong about BigYoshiFan being scum-aligned.

The fact that he takes personal offense at being called scum-aligned seems in my experience to be a strong town-aligned indicator and makes me think that I am on the wrong track.

I think he is instead a town-aligned player who is primarily concerned with his own survival, and he's just throwing everything he can back at me. Town-aligned players can also flail, and that's what I think is happening here.

VOTE: Map Wolf

^ira is town

(see how much easier that was than saying town-aligned?)

What just happened here? Seriously? I waste all that time on analyzing something you just immediately dismiss as over-and-done-with in a moment without any explanation?

I'm interested to see what Map Wolf has to see when he gets back, and depending on his response I'll potentialy be down to hammer.

For now VOTE: BigYoshiFan

I disagree with you on some aspects, Iraon, but I really didn't like BYF's defense. I don't think the fact that he's offended is a good reason to let up.

THANK YOU.
If you guys are going to dismiss all that, then at least take the time to explain what you learned from it. And Elyse, I swear, I've seen your type before. Don't pull that "How do you guys not understand? It's obvious! Ahahaha I'm so smart!" crap. Geeeeeez.
...Sorry if that came off as incredibly peevish, I don't mean that personally, but... Please, satisfy my insanity and explain yourself. Sorry! Sorry...

[Comparing Realities]

I'm still ok to lynch [Maps] but Zap is climbing up on my scum list. All of his posts ping me so hard.

Confirmation bias alert. If all of his posts ping you so, then either you or he are doing something wrong. And since few others are pinged, save myself and I think also Maria, it's probably just his personality that bothers you.

Map Wolf hasn't addressed any of the posts directed at him despite unvoting me after Dwlee and I voted him.

And if he flips scum I want to look at Zap.

It was obvious the whole time

Hm....I can see that being true with your posting. That or it's some grade A bullshit.

If it's true then yeah Map looks like Ziox.

I think this will put Map at like L-3 or so.

VOTE: Map

Gonna p stoked if we really just caught scum.

This post looks fake

For real though, Elyse's immediate reaction to the day cop claim looks town. It should by no means clear her because she is Elyse, but it looks town for more reason than one: She didn't attempt a CC, and scum might resist the urge to CC, but then it would probably be safer to just lurk it out if you were scum who didn't want to CC.

a fellow townie

Caught this too. Why didn't you pursue it further?

gerry is prob town.

Alright now that I've seen everything, I understand what Map Wolf did was scummy but like, aren't the at like L-3 or L-2 right now? I think it's a little too early to be putting someone that close to lynch when it's till not even 10 pages into the game. I'm pretty sure we have like 54 or 72 hours to get a lynch, so I'm a bit worried that votes are piling up on Map Wolf so easily.

I'm not too worried about the speed of the wagon because Map Wolf is the kind of buddy scum would bus anyway. Plus Zap and BlackStar showed resistance initially.

@BYF
Why were you townreading ira?

Zap points out a bunch of good things that point to BYFscum but doesn't vote him

As much as reading his posts make me want to kill myself, I think ira is probably town. And BYF could be scum.

Zap points out a bunch of good things that point to BYFscum but doesn't vote him

Yup.

VOTE: Nero Cain

I pref you not vote my biggest tr please thank you Nero's "hammer" was super towny it got reactions I like it a lot more than blacks because this seemed not even close to forced I don't see any reason for mafia to do this

Meh people do that all the time. I wouldn't be so quick to call Nero town.

Map's reads are weird. Why did he bring up only those few people? Does he have reads on everyone else? We may never know.

I'm still ok to lynch him but Zap is climbing up on my scum list. All of his posts ping me so hard.

Other than that, little else transpired between the two of you. I get your thing about the "fake" post ("Gonna p stoked if we really just caught scum"... what), but what else has he said?

Also, thank you for explaining your thought process on the Ira/BYF thing. Sorry for freaking out there.

[Comparing Realities]

I kinda wanna hammer Map Wolf and I kinda don't. He's still the person I scumread most here, yet I think as mafia he would have tried to claim a power role or something. What do you all think?

I think his claim of VT is rather humble, and rightly so. If he'd come out of the blue and said "I'm doctor!" or the like, that wouldn't have been very believable given his history/activity. Everyone expects that, anyway. I don't think any self-aware Mafia would have claimed anything but VT in this particular circumstance. Looking into his claim is a moot point in my opinion, he'd do it either way. What bugs me is his claiming that he "slightly referred to" his being a VT in post 19:

I am looking foward to this game as

it is pretty simple(...?)

, and i am pretty confident that i can do well.

That's a pretty lame defense.

[Comparing Realities]

I'm here.

I probably should have prefaced my introduction with this notice, but my schedule usually doesn't allow for much consistency. I'm not continuously active, so I focus my efforts on a few very large posts every now and then. I'm in the middle of drafting one now; It'll be up within two hours.

This is, of course, presuming I'm not replaced.

[Comparing Realities]

Thank you; I will make an increased attempt to shorten my absences in the future.

Rosske: MariaR, Nero Cain, Dwlee, Zap Rowsdower, BlackStar, gerryoat [L-1]

this is an all-town or near all-town wagon

The same logic applies to, like, every D1 wagon ever. When deadline comes closer, and L-1 becomes a lot more threatening, then you can make the case that scum would weasel their way off the wagon. For now, that's just a list of people who want to look like they think Rosske is scum, so it’s premature to call this.
About Rosske: I don't really understand the primary reasons for the wagon starting on him, but his reaction was not sufficiently town.

I wouldn't be so quick to call Nero town.

"lets keep Nero as a possible mislynch!"

Not necessarily... More on your attitude later.

Well, I think that Nero Cain is suspicious and being deliberately and unnecessarily abrasive to

appear town-aligned

.

I've always felt like statements like these are stupid but anyways what makes you think I'm not being genuine?

CR are you scumreading Map or what?

I am definitively not reading Map as scum anymore; I say they are town, in fact. Despite a general sort of scumminess about them, there was absolutely no resistance to the wagon. That indicates either 1) an extremely calm and collected scum who doesn't panic at L-1 early in the game because they know that L-1 in the first week of D1 means nothing, which is very hard to do even if you understand it, or 2) their being town. If Map is scum, then I'd wager the smartest person in this game is one of their partners. But since the prior improbability of the first scenario is so high, it makes the second so much more reasonable.

Whose voting pattern?

Rosske's voting pattern.

-Voted Elyse after Dwlee's fake result, but engaged minimally with the wagon while we all focused on Map and Blackstar instead
-Voted BYF right as people were starting to get suspicious about him, but simultaneously supported the L-1 Map wagon
-Voted for the Iraq war, then later called it a mistake

Essentially, Rosske votes the low-hanging fruit.

119 shows that he is thinking critically as opposed to the scum-aligned move of reading Dwlee as town-aligned for WIFOM reasons

See but scum don't want town to treat town like they're town

.

Wrong.

So if Dwlee is town, and I think he is, then we have a player here (Rosske) trying to keep a town under suspicion.

I think I'm just mostly paranoid that MAP is a mislynch 'cause there's been seemingly little resistance to his wagon.

59 gave me a strange vibe.

Didn't really like his "don't give DW a townread!" from 119 and 121.

334 is the kind of pressure point statement that I think scum like to make.

I'm not sure

WHY

he's scum reading Map and his Map scumread/intent to hammer feels kinda like going with the flow. He also had no reaction to me calling him scum and I think scum are more likely to avoid those type of accusations.

Sometimes I wonder if Map actually is scum and that "Rosske sounds like he could be my scummate" to throw us off.

But I'd like to hear why you and Elyse think I should town read him.

This seems like a scum-aligned thought process, because "wagon resistance" is usually scum-aligned logic to throw shade onto the wagon.

Good logic is good logic. It shouldn't matter where it comes from. Hitler could say that the Autobahn is a good idea, but that doesn't make it bad. Couple this bad reasoning about "bad reasoning" with the below...

So you have no examples but you just some how know this is scum logic? Yea

I'm

the one that's making up shit to accuse you with.

I think you are incredibly fake yes.

Iraonpvp doesn't even respond to my problems with his scum-read on me
dank
VOTE: iraonpvp
fuck the ross wagon i want this

...Then it it is incredibly obvious that you made a point without any justification, and had not anticipated someone challenging you on it.
Add that to the fact that --

just because you threw away your beef with BYF at the end of your argument with them does not wipe away your scumminess from in the middle of that interaction

-- and you have a freaking good case against Ira.
VOTE: Ira

@map wolf
What do you think of the rosske wagon?

I feel the tone in some of his posts feel scummy. 344 sounds like a scumpush, as it is an assumption, and it is a very simple argument. 439 is a very weak "defense" for being voted on, and is not very logically sound since he has only jumped on two wagons.

its funny that

Rosske

hasn't posted since his

wagon accusation

.....looks like scum who

got scumread,

and now is laying low hoping it all will go away

Now i feel he is leaning scum. He hasn't adressed much, but there may be more reasons for that. Not posting since being wagoned might not really mean much.
Also i am not gonna vote since i think that would be a hammer, and we can't say yet if/when we are going to hammer.

This is a giant fencesit

It's really not. "Now I feel he is leaning scum, but I'm not sure enough to say there is no evidence that cannot convince me of his innocence."

Actually no, I changed my mind after looking again. I think he is scum-aligned.

VOTE: Map Wolf

So, I'm not sure if scumIra would do this if Map is town. Just seems like something that would look pretty awful if Map flipped town. I could see it happening if Map was scum, especially if scum have day chat and Map told ira to do it or something. But it's just such an abrupt, unexplained turnaround that was guaranteed to draw attention.

Point taken. It does seem like an awfully sudden thing to do; but it looks scum regardless of how Map flips, really. It might just have been a self-preservation move.

Then later we have ira hopping around to all these widely-townread (or at least town-leaned) players like Dwlee and Nero, while saying that players like BYF and Rosske look town. All this happening while we run up Rosske. Again, this would be a pretty brazen way to approach the situation if ira were partners with Rosske. So if ira is scum, then I think Rosske is most probably town.

But this "butterfly" playstyle isn't exactly good Mafia handiwork, is it? So if Ira is town after all that, what does it say about Rosske?

At first I was reading ira's play as town because it seemed like he was trying to figure things out, pressuring players who didn't post much so that he'd have things to read them on, etc. But some stuff has just been weird. Like telling BYF that he should claim when BYF had very few votes on him (or zero?) Then later, this one:

No, of course not, and you don't really care about the answer, you just want reasons to accuse me. Just like all of the other questions you ask...

Which was in response to Nero asking ira to provide examples for a theory he'd just given. It was a fair question; ira was using the theory (that the idea of "wagon resistance" comes from scum more often than town) to justify a scumread on Nero. Ira stated it like a fact, suggesting he'd seen it in the past. Pressed to give evidence, he acted like it would be ridiculous for him to have evidence and then tried to turn it back on Nero.

At that point, "fake as shit" starts to sound like a reasonable way to describe ira's read on Nero.

If fakeness isn't strong enough evidence for you, then what is? Fakeness is the entire point of scum play, and Ira just got owned in that department.

BUT while everyone else was off pushing Map, ira was walling with BYF, only to later declare BYF town and hop onto the Map wagon with him. Then, while everyone else was off running up Rosske, ira was tearing away at Nero and Dwlee.

Which, I might add, is in self-defense; one might even go so far as to say it was OMGUS. Most of Ira's actions can be comprehended from the viewpoint of them being incredibly self-conscious, afraid of each and every person who scumreads them.

If ira is likely not partners with Rosske, and we want to assume for the sake of argument that ira is scum, that means scum was almost certainly on the Rosske wagon. And if we want to assume for the sake of argument that ira could be partners with Map, then my bet would be that the third scum wasn't on the Map wagon and may have been either lurking, not voting or otherwise just committed to another wagon.

I don't see the point of this paragraph.

I know this is all a little premature but I'm hoping it becomes useful later and I'm hoping it'll help me get my bearings back.

Sorry for the post length.

I'm sorry if I just want to see why a fellow townie has suspicion on me.

I don't want to discount the possibility that this whole thing between BYF and ira was scum theater. The "fellow townie" thing is some wonky wording for sure, but in my head if I'm treating BYF as scum then it makes sense both in the context of ira being town and ira being a partner.

It makes even more sense if BYF is town and was just saying some adorably naïve and innocent thing.

That being the case, it raises some interesting questions based on the timing of it all. They started doing this as Map was being run up (ira was voting Map, he switched to BYF in the middle of their argument). So if anything the ira-BYF walling served to distract from the Map wagon. That could point to Map as scum too, it would kind of suck for scum to distract from a wagon on a townie only to make each other look worse.

...Huh. I didn't think of that. Ira picked a fight to distract from the Map wagon. That's actually a good possibility.

But then we have the weirdness where both of them stop arguing and vote Map together:

Still think Map Wolf is the best lynch for today.

Agreed. VOTE: Map Wolf

I'm aware that this might make me look bad, but I think that I was wrong about BigYoshiFan being scum-aligned.

(snip)

VOTE: Map Wolf

Which, if I'm gonna think about it in terms of BYF and ira being scum together and trying to distract from their partner Map, does seem like an awfully strange move. Ira's vote put Map at L-1. No, it's not just strange. It's sophisticated machinery. It's like a tactician's work, and I just don't know how many people would even think to do that.

Nobody ever gets lynched within the first few days of the game on D1. Without exception, hammer occurs just before deadline; why throw away all that good scumhunting time? L-1 that early means absolutely nothing. It certainly helps your "tactician's work" paranoia, but... Come on, the prior improbability of Ira being a massive awesome mastermind is too low for this line of reasoning to work. Ira was trying to hurt BYF with that argument, but when that failed, Ira just moved on to an easier target. Nobody would fault Ira for betting on a Map BW then.

And then let's flip Map over to being town and BYF and ira are partners. That means that not only did BYF and ira wall with each other while distracting from the Map wagon, risking tearing apart a mislynch while putting scum in jeopardy, but they then coordinated with each other to vote a mislynch at the same time, and even put it at L-1. That also seems unlikely for scum to do.

More likely than the above scenario IMO.

So, long story short, I don't think that BYF, ira and Map are all partners together, and I actually don't think that ira is partners with BYF either. It could be possible that Map and ira are partners, or that BYF is partners with Map.

But thinking about it a bit more now, I'm not so big on the thought of map being scum. There's the eagerness to start the game, which is a little bit o' somethin', and then there's the VT claim, which is a little more o' somethin', and there's the way people approached the wagon, which is also somethin'. Altogether they make up a little bit more than a little bit.

Ira's posts are so erratic and messy and so out there I don't know if I can sr him for it to be quite honest he has reads and he seems to be sticking to them I can't see Ira coming in the game and being like: "I'm gonna fucking tunnel someone into the ground and then retract at the last second yeah go me!"

...
"His posts are so scummy and random and erratic he CANT be scum" -Someone everytime a person obvscums

^----This
By the way, randomness and confusion is more than enough for a policy lynch. Plus, we have the benefit of Ira actually being scum.

Black is leaning town for me I guess. Just based on the "reaction test" thing when Dwlee did the fake result on Elyse. I don't see a whole lot that makes me think he's town or scum in the rest of his ISO.

Between ira and BYF, I think I feel more like voting BYF. They've both had weirdness in their ISOs, but ira just looks more proactive and BYF looks more reactive.

Dw, why should I vote ira instead? What do you think of BYF?

Proactive implies activity, not alignment. You can be proactive and also Mafia. In fact, Mafia who aren't proactive don't live past D2. If proactiveness is town, it must actually help town. You demonstrate how Ira's proactiveness has helped town so far, and I will gladly eat my underwear.
As for BYF, I think his actions will become more apparent on D2, so I'm holding off on spending my time on him until later.

Byf is town. Youve already laid out a ton of reasoning in your posts about why you think ira is scum, I shouldnt have to explain this to you. Ira is spouting nonsense bs and getting away with it because he is "being proactive".

You know, it's posts like these that make me really appreciate trollish individuals. Dwlee's troll-ness comes from the fact that he never takes himself too seriously, even though he is entirely capable of taking everyone else seriously, as demonstrated in the above post. Nero Cain, on the other hand, is the type of troll that takes himself TOO seriously, responding with bitter, caustic sarcasm whenever it befits him. guess which one of these tow I townread, and the other I nullread if only because they give Ira a hard time.

To be quite frank with you Zap I am pretty dam sure if Map flips scum (and I'd bet so) you're his partner that post you just did you ran through a few possibility but then threw them out the window almost dismissing them entirely I don't see why you even needed to bring that point up in the first place it just feels like you wanted to get people confused

This.

Let's lynch Map and then Zap when he flips scum. Zap is posting a whole bunch of what looks like content, but when you actually read it, is mostly just hypotheticals and useless associations.

Map/Zap scumteam fo sho

I actually really like Zap's posts. Hypothetical does not mean useless. It's better by far than blank, faceless accusations with only a turkey's worth of meat behind them, wouldn't you say?

I want to vote zap for his bad suggestion earlier

I WAS NOT SAYING THAT EVERYBODY SHOULD SOFTCLAIM WITHOUT BEING AT L-1. PUT ON YOUR GLASSES AND READ MY POSTS.

Baaaad goat, ba

aaaaa

ad.

We should probably lynch Nero Cain...

Notice that the only people voting me are people I already called scum-aligned.

Everybody in the world is OMGUSing except yourself? I know that feel, bro. ------------v

>tfw scum make shitty pushes on people and then claim OMGUS when it is noticed their pushes are shitty

We should probably lynch Nero Cain...

Notice that the only people voting me are people I already called scum-aligned.

That's pretty bad logic. Also it's starting to feel like you're purposely trying to annoy us by continuing with the "aligned" thing

Well, that's not what my reads are based on, it's just an observation.

And it's never before been a problem for me to use that terminology, Elyse is probably just trying to make a big deal about it because she is scum-aligned and trying to make an excuse to policy lynch me.

If it's just an observation, then why bring it up? I observe that the sun is shining today, but I don't mention it because it's not relevant top the game. You brought up their "OMGUSing" because you thought it was relevant, and that it helped you. If you're going to change what you say, at least self-interpret in a believable way. Aaaaaand now I officially have confirmation bias, so I'm going to try to ignore Ira from now on.
_{And also personally I don't see what the big problem about "-aligned" is so can we please shut up about that and actually care about things that matter kthnx}

Defending me would be the worst thing anyone could do if they were actually my scummate, A hypothetical scummate would've tried and follow the wagon not defend me.

This has zero relevance to the game if Map Wolf is town-aligned. It's like he's just throwing WIFOM to confuse us after he gets lynched.

It's significant because it shows that Map was trying to defend them, and thus either wants us all to be cool, calm, collected, moderate, and level-headed about our accusations (pfft yeah right), or is townreading the hypothetical scummate.

Okay, right now we should just lynch Rosske, Map Wolf, Nero Cain, Elyse, and BigYoshiFan. That should be enough people to kill and we will end up with all or almost all the scum-aligned players dead.

This can be called Operation Kill Nero Cain and if you want to support it, simply type VOTE: Nero Cain, alternatively we could lynch someone else...

The evidence ahs to be as extraordinary as the claim. Nero doesn't seem particularly, polite, I suppose, but that's just plain insufficient justification for calling a scumteam based around him.

VOTE: comparing realities

The fillerer votes the lurker. I deserved that.

[Comparing Realities]

I think and hope that DW's and Nero's fight petered out in the middle of page 29.
Recap: DW expressed his concern that Nero's accusations of Ira did not mean that he was town if Ira was scum, or that he was scum if Ira was town. However, the post was poorly worded and appeared to implicate that Nero was scum regardless of the outcome; an argument largely based in uncertainty and semantics ensues.
Did I get that right? If so, that was all meaningless.

[Comparing Realities]

Yeah Elyse does look fairly scummy actually. After thinking about it some more, it's entirely plausible that scum -- especially experienced scum like Elyse -- would have the wherewithal to realize that Dwlee was just fishing for reactions and respond the way that she did.

Or she just had the common sense to realize he was trolling for no particular reason. I still don't believe that DW was actually looking for reactions there. Did he explicitly say that that was a reactions fish?

Her approach to the Rosske wagon was suspy too. She was voting Map the whole time that it happened, but kinda cheering on the Rosske wagon in a way that looked like a partner may have already been on the Rosske wagon or otherwise she had some hidden reason for staying off it.

Kinda cheering? Examples, please.

The scumread on me seems like subtle opportunism too. I haven't been widely scumread or widely townread, so I'm a safe place for scum to build a backup scumread. And the reasoning didn't sit well with me. She said one of my posts looked fake, and I know what sentence she was talking about too -- it's the kind of sentence that looks surface-level scummy for sure. It's the kind of thing I would expect scum to pick on. Then later she says I'm posting stuff that looks like work but isn't. The implication being hat I was trying to look busy. In the process she ignored the more obvious explanation -- I'm not feeling very sure of myself and need to work out my reads.

Basically it just feels like Elyse is sneakily/intentionally working in the wrong directions.

I need to step back and look at my options here.

The thing is that I don't really think ira and Elyse would be partners.

How so? Why aren't they a viable team?

And nothing has really happened to make me think ira is town. I actually had a tinfoil hat-type thought that he might be a mafia lie detector and that's why he's been pushing rosske so hard to say that he's a pr. But I feel like those are pretty rare? I've never seen one anyway.

Eh screwballs. We have time. Let's see what happens.

VOTE: Elyse

[Comparing Realities]

So...many...words

Shakes head

This is very interesting because a few of my town reads scum read my other 2 town reads but I will not and I repeat NOT vote in Elyse/Ira today

Um...
I don't recall exactly why you think Elyse and Ira are town. Please explain your general feeling about both of them/

[Comparing Realities]

Kinda cheering? Examples, please.

This'n, this'n and that'n.

How so? Why aren't they a viable team?

Oh, a fewreasons. Elyse getting so pissed off at ira for saying scum-aligned and town-aligned just does not seem like something one partner would do toward another. Ira's been scumreading Elyse for silly reasons. And then Ira discredited Elyse's scumread on me, an example post for that is here.

Zap made an assertion that was backed by evidence, and when called upon to present it, he did so with aplomb.
Get the picture?_{Looking at you Map/Black/Maria/whoever else}
Anyway, most of Ira's scumreading of Elyse started

after

the first wagon on them started. That

could

just be WIFOM scumreading their actual partner so if the lynch actually does go through, it looks like "Elyse was right all along". And if Ira isn't lynched, the strangeness of those scumreads makes them easy to amend later.

...which means there's resistance. MapWolf wasn't lynched, so there is resistance, even if the initial reason is that there wasn't resistance.

But is that why you don't want Map lynched? Because there wasn't resistance to his wagon?

I refuse to vote Ira because he's one of my strongest town reads. I wouldn't be upset if he died since he's annoying but I think he's town. His thought process, warped as it is, seems very hard to fake as scum.

It seems as though your own thought process is so warped as to be very hard to fake as scum.
...Huh, look at that winrate.
You're committing a major Catch-22 here; resistance must be displayed WHILE THE WAGON IS BUILDING, and it's got to be from people RESISTING THE WAGON. If someone who first voted for the wagon later got off, IT'S NOT RESISTING. Retired Stormtroopers are not Rebels.

There's also the fact that early D1 wagons like Map's happen in pretty much every game and he was in no actual danger of being lynched

yeah bullshit.

How is that bullshit?

Did you think Map was actually going to be lynched 1 RL day into day 1?

This is a fair point, although I hadn't intended for the logic to be applied in quite this way. You're saying that the reason there was no resistance while the wagon was building was because, obviously, nobody's lynched three days into D1? And that Mafia knew this? And that the logic of "wagon resistance" is null and void because Mafia knew it?
Before yourself just now, I was the one and only person in the entire game who brought the thought up, that early D1 lynches are meaningless.
Elyse, are you implicating me as scum?

[Comparing Realities]

No I'm not calling you scum. But yes that's what I was getting at.

Fail.
That was a test to see if you'd find the logical inconsistency in the grounds of my challenge to FOS me or not. If I as Map's partner knew that logic and its implications, I would not have shared it in the first place for this very reason. You didn't go to level two analysis.

[Comparing Realities]

@CR
Correct me if I'm wrong but you're saying that as Map's partner, you wouldn't have said that the wagon resistance point is moot because that would implicate him. And I said I'm not calling you scum. What's the issue here? Is it just that I didn't say "I'm not calling you scum because you wouldn't have said that as Map's buddy" or am I missing something?

I wasn't testing your scumminess there. I wasn't planning on using that look into your alignment at all, really. I just wanted to test your proficiency at finding less-than-obvious logical flaws in other peoples' reasoning. I don't want to say quite yet why I did this--wait, no, actually, if you can figure out why I did it, more power to you. But I would advise you to read twice, speak once.
My location, beneath my avatar, says "solipsistic introjection". It's a psychological term for the phenomenon wherein we create little "characters" in our heads of other people online. Were not talking to actual people, we're talking to the characters we've constructed; the closer to reality our characters are, the more meaningful our dialogue. Based on your interaction with Nero Cain, I got the distinct impression that your characters were wildly inconsistent with the people, so you couldn't pick up on when they themselves were inconsistent. Your characters just do whatever; it's impossible for them to be self-inconsistent, everything is part of their script. But if your characters are more accurate, those things are more noticeable.
None of this has anything to do with this game, but knowing how to beat this problem should be a huge boon to one's town play in general.

[Comparing Realities]

[quote="In post 829, Comparing Realities

None of this has anything to do with this game, but knowing how to beat this problem should be a huge boon to one's town play in general.

So you townread her?[/quote]

Yes, I do.

Nero please explain to me why Wolf is town without using the resistance argument.

To be honest, I don't think this can be done. Map just lacks a general sort of scumminess. Take their readslist, for example:

So i really don't know where we go from here. I think i will go through with my thoughts.

BYF

is null. 309 "agreed" as a followed by a vote seems scum in tone. Some other posts seem scum in tone, but i do like his replies to Ira whose alignment he seems to flip on.

Doesn't mention "fellow townie" which is a bigger deal than "agreed".

BlackStar

i townread. His posts are genuine to me.

Wasn't Black trying to defend Map for awhile?

Comparing

lean-town for me. His long posts seem town.

How so?

DW

i think is lean-town. Lots of short posts, but i do agree about Ira...

Agreeing with someone does not make them town.

Elyes

i think is lean-scum. Too many of her posts are trying to create a wagon

(on me)

.

I agree.

gerryoat

is lean-town the vast majority off his posts are pro-town to me. Like myself he hasn't made "big" posts, so that is about it.

...

Iraon

i think is lean-scum. I am not going to make a case on him, but he flip-flops a ton from who he votes, and has made a case on really unimportant posts.

Maria

i null read. 562 sounds like a scummy attempt to make another wagon on me.

Last time you scumread Maria in your last readslist, but now she's done more of the same stuff you previously scumread her for and now she's null?

Nero

i think is lean-town. He has useful posts, and i agree with his cases on some players.

Some players such as Elyse.

Rosske

is null. The question is whether he is "town" who just got some slightly unfortunate posts or scum trying to get the wagon off. I can't make a conclusion on that.

Skold

i think is null. I need for posts from him to be certain of anything.

Zaps

posts doesn't seem like something a scum would post. I town read them.


I am going to VOTE: Iraonavp due to his inconsistensies.

This will bring him to L-1

I fail to see how they reached these conclusions, but, and I know this will drive you insane, but

scum doesn't act that way, not now and not ever.

I cannot envision a world where scum who just survived a major wagon scumreads you and null reads Maria even though you're both doing exactly the same things.
I am breaking every rule by saying this, but despite all logic,

Map simply cannot be scum because even scum doesn't do what Map does

.

[Comparing Realities]

Trying to read Map makes me feel like a terrible player.

[Comparing Realities]

Map Wolf: Elyse, MariaR, BigYoshiFan [L-4]
iraonavp: BlackStar, Comparing Realities, Nero Cain, Map Wolf [L-3]
Elyse: Zap Rowsdower, iraonavp [L-5]
BigYoshiFan: gerryoat, Rosske [L-5]

Not voting (3) - Map Wolf, Skold, Dwlee99

This day grows bothersome. I would prefer to keep the pressure on Ira all the way through the end of the day.

Yeah you should considering he's been one of the two leading wagons for the entire day and my lynch was never going anywhere.

This is so frustrating Map and Zap are soooo scum and Zap is just gonna hop on Ira at the end of the day and take no responsibility for it.

UNVOTE:

I'm pretty sure this was you responding to Elyse and preventing a quickhammer, but if you had any other logic, that might be a nice thing to include the next time you shift votes. Either way this is just... I don't have the words to describe how bad it is to do this. It's like hammering at the same time you say you're pretty sure this person is town.

UNVOTE: iraonavp

thought about it. I don't think Ira is scum anymore.

Let's lynch this one instead

VOTE: BigYoshiFan

This is awful. No logic is terrible, but pretending like you have a reason while you present nothing is even worse. You've made a case against BYF previously, but that case is just plain insufficient to prefer a BYF lynch over an Ira lynch.
You know what this feels like? You're using the momentum of Dwlee's unlynch to justify your own unlynch, for whatever reason. Unless you can offer a simpler explanation, this is the only way I can interpret this action right now. Somehow, Ira not being lynched now is personally advantageous to you. Do you even care if BYF is lynched or not? Otherwise, you wouldn't have joined a wagon with virtually 0% chance of reaching its destination.
That is, of course, what this post

feels like

. Explain yourself.

Is there anything important I should know?

Main happenstances of the game so far (as far as I can recall from memory, add to this if I missed something):

-Right after game starts, Dwlee claims day cop and guilties I think Elyse, looking for reactions.
-People react, none of the reactions look particularly alignment-indicative.
-While that episode is at its apex, Map makes a soul-crushingly self-destructive post wherein he votes Elyse, promises to get Dwlee tomorrow if this doesn't work out, and tells people not to hammer Elyse.
-BOOM Map is at L-1
-While the wagon is mounting, Black "reaction tests" Elyse in such a bizarre way that it's clear it wasn't actually a reaction test, but him regretting something he'd said a few posts ago and wanting to erase it from our conscience.
-BYF and Ira get around to talking about Map, and things get salty
-BYF words a post extremely strangely, calling Ira a "fellow townie" as though he knew Ira was town. In my opinion, it was just a slip of the pen, nothing of any true import, but it did seem weird what with BYF fighting Ira so hard in that conversation.
-Everything peters out suddenly when Ira slams on the brakes and says he townreads BYF now, no hard feelings.
-Map returns, tries to explain some stuff, people unvote because lynching someone not even halfway into the first day is stupid, everyone is left with a lingering feeling of doubt and remorse surrounding Map. They remain the second most popular lynch candidate today.
-A wagon starts on Rosske for reasons I don't quite remember, but I do think his reaction to being wagoned was poor.
-I return with a super-long post where the most notable moment was my consolidating the case against Ira. I remain the biggest advocate for an Ira lynch now.
-Rosske wagon peters out, people try to draw logical conclusions.
-DW and Nero get in a meaningless two-page squabble because a poorly worded post from DW looked like he was calling Nero as scum regardless of the Ira flip.
-A small movement to restart the wagon on Map is made, largely led by Elyse. This is discouraged by Maria's logic that Map can't be scum because nobody was resisting the Map wagon in the first place. Scum would have helped their buddy, right?
-Elyse argues that the wagon did have resistance, it must have, because it did run out of support in the end.
-Nero notes that this is confusing.
-Elyse clarifies, saying that nobody is actually lynched that early D1, which made it safe for the resistance to be implicit, quiet, being the last person to vote to ensure less townies on the wagon, and being the first to unvote to create anti-bw momentum. Also, I just realized something about a particular player.
-I test Elyse by asking if she scumreads me, because a pivotal logical foundation she used to justify this reasoning was that nobody is lynched early D1, and I was the only person in the game who had previously mentioned that logic. It was actually a test to see if she could level-two scumhunt, which I cannot do and it would be useful if some of us could.
-Elyse fails the test to find the logical inconsistency (I as scum wouldn't have publicly mentioned that logic in the first place), therefore reducing my faith in the Map wagon.
-DW unlynches Ira after Elyse suggests that mafia could quickhammer before we find a different lynch candidate.
-Rosske switches his vote from Ira to BYF.
-And here we are, I probably missed some important stuff along the way though.

What's the case on iraonavp?

Makes suck pushes on people backed by lackluster logic, OMGUSes people when it is noticed their pushes are suck, was generally scummy during the interaction with BYF (personal opinion. Some say that fight suggests Ira as town and BYF as scum, or both of them as town), made bad attempts to keep the wagon on Map, who they probably just saw as a target to shift the lynch to, and in 515-520 made accusations with absolutely no basis in fact, and repeats this process until the day ends. Also makes a huge number of low-content posts.

[Comparing Realities]

It makes me wanna die of boredom. I swear we've been doing the same thing for like 5 days straight.

complains about there not being a lynch but is the reason we haven't had a lynch.

I understand if you had a big town read on IRA and said you didn't want to vote him but you don't so I'm not quite sure why you flat out refuse to do so.

gerryoat began the game with Ira as one of his biggest town reads, next only to Skold. He's probably just slow to respond. He said earlier he doesn't see a town case on Ira, but he found the case against Ira insufficient to lynch them. I'd believe it were it not for Ira being fantastically scum.
gerrybroat, explain your full read on Ira.

[Comparing Realities]

I'm V/LA until next Monday. N1 starts this Monday morning, anyway, so I won't miss too much.

Ira, your biggest scumreads are Black, Rosske, Nero, and I, correct?

Anyone up for a last minute BlackStar wagon?

No...

I will only support lynching you, NEROCAIN, Rosske, or Comparing Realities.

Of this list, only Black has a single vote on them. If the wagon falls off you, we either no lynch, which is awful and dramatically unsatisfying, or it falls on one of your null- or townreads.

Map Wolf: Elyse, MariaR, BigYoshiFan [L-4]

<---

iraonavp: BlackStar, Comparing Realities, Nero Cain, Map Wolf [L-2]

Elyse: Zap Rowsdower, iraonavp [L-5]

<---

BigYoshiFan: gerryoat, Rosske [L-5]

<---

At this point, I would be a LOT more concerned about outing scum than saving my own hide, and yet, most of the energy from your last few days' posts comes from self-defense, not a final burst of scumhunting. You are adamant that we four are terrible, and back it up with mild evidence, this I accept; but you are still predominantly concerned with self-preservation. My question is, why would you, if you're town, spend your last precious days of time and energy on saving yourself, when the wagon would just fall on BYF or Elyse or Map in all probability?

[Comparing Realities]

There's also the matter of why Ira did not follow along with Elyse's lynch of Black, which I cannot understand given the current constraints of this problem...

@Maria
I seriously wonder how you could wonder that... Are all our arguments just completely unconvincing?

P-edit:
He claimed VT awhile back, I think. Not sure when he claimed, exactly, sometime around when his wagon first got to L-1.

[Comparing Realities]

Rosske did not clearly soft PR. He can just turn around and say he's just a special person who happened to roll VT and nobody would even care.

If Rosske actually meant it as a PR soft then he would have answered my question. There is no reason not to answer it if he is a PR because apparently everyone else has already assumed that he is.

I'm just VT

, and you know if I was scum-aligned I could just say I was "special" and get away with it completely! But I'm town-aligned, so...

Hammering me would be a mistake, vote Rosske or Nero Cain instead!

Wake, what's your feel about Ira not voting Black after Elyse broke the mold? Maybe if he jumped on it too early, it would sour the image of the Blackwagon, so he'll just join when a few others get on?

[Comparing Realities]

I already said I think BlackStar is town-aligned and I always maintained this, stop lying!

Sorry, misread. I thought you were replying to a quote from Black, not from Elyse. Which makes sense, considering how you've FOSed her half the game

In which case, nevermind about the Blackwagon thing.

[Comparing Realities]

Too tired not to make mistakes like that. There is little chance that I'll be around to change my vote before deadline, and to be honest, it'd take far too much evidence at this point for me to unvote Ira anyway.

Goodnight and goodbye.

[Comparing Realities]

I'm here; megapost date set for Monday. Although, reading this whole discussion, I am baffled by the sheer lack of balls present in this town. Ira would be a good lynch even if they were not blatantly scum-aligned. They way they are playing, it seems to me they could turn a presidential motorcade into a monster truck rally. Why are we still sitting here talking about our feelings when we can actually fix the problem by typing VOTE: Ira?

Of course, this isn't to say that borderline-personal attacks on Ira's individual character are justified, Nero, Elyse. Playing with Ira is fun. They have this inexpressible quality of situational chaos about them that I find particularly intriguing, and I'll be delighted to see them in a future game.

Here's an idea: bring Ira to L-1, let us be clear and unequivocal in our declaration that IRA WILL BE LYNCHED AND WE WILL NOT ACCEPT A SCAPEGOAT, and force Rosske's hand. Like those spy movies where they don't torture the guy, but instead strap a bomb to his bae to get the missile codes.

[Comparing Realities]

Bad analogy but whatever.

[Comparing Realities]

Ira, I did not say you weren't scum, in fact I said you'd be a good lynch even if you were not blatantly scum (a double-negative meaning that you are blatantly scum and just flailing at this point), I've said before that Rosske should not fullclaim, and you're the one who wants him to fullclaim anyway so why is that a scumread for me if I just do it in a creative way, and you of

all people

should not be accusing others of spamming.

[Comparing Realities]

Whew. I thought my megapost had died, but it saved, somehow.

[Map's readslist. Cut for length.

I fail to see how they reached these conclusions, but, and I know this will drive you insane, but

scum doesn't act that way, not now and not ever.

I cannot envision a world where scum who just survived a major wagon scumreads you and null reads Maria even though you're both doing exactly the same things.
I am breaking every rule by saying this, but despite all logic,

Map simply cannot be scum because even scum doesn't do what Map does

.

I find this suspicious, I shouldn't have put you in town-aligned and I would swap your place to slightly scum-aligned now.

Your confidence sounds like you know that you are right because you're scum-aligned and that's why you are so insistent. This is really weak evidence otherwise and I don't think you would believe what you were saying if you were town-aligned. Also, you are basically just voting me and you don't really think I'm scum-aligned or interested in sorting me, just post a vote and leave.

I checked your previous games and I saw that you post a lot of content even if you are scum-aligned, that was why I thought you could be town-aligned initially because I didn't really read your posts.

I would prefer to keep the pressure on Ira all the way through the end of the day.

"Pressure" is not real, and this is just trying to keep the lynch on me until there is no opportunity to lynch anyone else in an indirect, scum-aligned way. There's no functional difference between saying "I'm scared that the wagon might move away and we lose our easy mislynch".

A) Confidence isn't scummy, it's only indicative of wanting to look like one has a strong read. Town can be confident because they have a great case on someone, or a strong gut feeling; town can also be confident because they're just BSing and want to feel precious. Scum can be confident because they actually know someone is town; they can also be confident because they think they've made a good, genuine logical case. Perhaps you should specify which variety of confidence I display here.
B) Scum is as scum does. If someone does not fit the bill for scum, then they are not scum. Map's actions made 10% sense in the context of town, and 0% sense in the context of mafia, and therefore they had to be town,

despite them not being very towny at all

. Lynching someone because they are difficult to read, as I strongly suspect happened yesterday despite everyone's rationale, is the epitome of laziness.
C) Trivia time: You know how Nero misrepresented that one game you were scum in? The one you subbed into? Do you think, perchance, you're doing the same thing here? I grow tired of these games.
D) Pressure is real, and you know it. You became much more active defending yourself D1 when you became a prime wagon. You responded to this post in part because it added more pressure to you, did you not?

OK, well.....one thing I can say is that Rosske's refusal to claim even after people voted him to get him to do it means he is probably not scum. I just do not think scum would act this way in this situation. For one, the scum team would've discussed at night what his claim should be. Or during the day, even, if they have day chat. And on top of that, scum would have plenty of reason to claim now. Town would suspect them otherwise. They could out a town PR and possibly even get them lynched. If there wasn't a town counterclaim, the fakeclaiming scum (Rosske) could either skid by without suspicion or even manipulate town into doing the wrong thing, depending on what he claimed.

So.....guess I take back my insistence that he should claim, then.

I concur. Someone who previously claimed PR should not claim their full role unless it becomes Plot Relevant, or if they are in imminent danger of being lynched. Because of this reason, it is foolhardy to force a PR into claiming

by lynching him

; it neutralizes part of town!Rosske's power by giving that information to the Mafia. Rosske claiming either hurts town or hurts mafia, and him not claiming maintains the status quo.
If Rosske is mafia, forcing him into an early hardclaim is bad for him, but not debilitating; it makes manipulation that much harder, and leaves him vulnerable to an admittedly unlikely counterclaim. (Say he claims watcher--what percentage of standard closed normal have a watcher? Maybe 33%?) mafia!Rosske will thereafter use uncreative traditional mafia tactics such as "well, darn, I was roleblocked, by golly oh poo" which I propose as an official acronym by the name of BGOP. Of course, if mafia!Rosske wasn't very creative to begin with, this is little loss for him in the end. This is a

possible

loss for mafia.
If town!Rosske were forced to claim, however, well, that information is made public, and they who conspire may then conspire further. This is a

definite

loss for town, and its utility is difficult to predict.
In essence, danger of mafia definitely gaining an unkown level of advantage > danger of maybe letting mafia get away without a possible handicap.
I hate uncertainty and I love it all the same. If Rosske dies sometime along the game, and he flips town, remember those who wanted him to claim and think them scum. If he is mafia, then think the claim crowd to be town. It is partially for this reason that I believe Rosske is town; most of my scumreads (Ira, Ira, and Ira) want him to claim, so conditional on Ira being scum, Rosske is town in my eyes.

It is pretty interesting to think about the reaction to all this if we think about Rosske as town. Elyse called for Rosske to claim and nobody really said anything. Then I agree with Elyse, and suddenly BYF votes Rosske, gerryoat calls for a Rosske claim and ira also votes Rosske.

Makes me wonder if setting up Rosske as a possibly mislynch might've been part of the reason scum killed Blackstar instead...

I don't get the Blackstar kill at all. If you wanted to get Rosske as an easy mislynch, I don't know, why not kill Nero or something? Nero/DW were the primary advocates of a Rosske lynch midday yesterday, I believe. It's probably for another reason.
A standard tactic when looking at a complicated plot is to see the end result, assume it was intended, then see who benefitted.
Who benefitted from Black dying?
...?
...I guess whoever Black FOSed, but I'm too tired to look that up, I wasn't paying them much attention, and that'd just be way too easy...

You're making a lot of assumptions about how scum should act and react. Your defense is all about how you think the mafia should be playing, when there is no right way to play.

1. It's not a "defense." I'm putting forward a theory that Rosske is probably town.
2. There is no "right way to play." That is true. But we can look at motivations as a means of explaining possibilities, and then judge those motivations on their likelihood. I see no motivation for scum to act the way Rosske is acting.

Let me ask you directly since you're doing everything you can not to address the central point:

Why would scum, in Rosske's position -- with multiple people asking for him to claim, with scum having killed Blackstar in a move that was obviously going to make Rosske look bad -- why, with all that happening, would scumRosske not just fakeclaim right now?

Quoting this because I agree with it, though it does seem a little shortsighted for mafia to be so certain black flipping town makes Rosske look that bad. It wasn't knockdown evidence against him. That usually only becomes a factor mid-game. The pattern is more volatile on day two. More likely, Black just felt plain dangerous; they were on to something, or they think Black was PR for whatever reason.

Okay, we should just vote Rosske until he is forced to claim.

Or let him claim when he's darn good and ready? If you're just very publicly manufacturing a scenario for him to be under pressure (which doesn't exist btw) and then claim, he'll know it's all just a play, and consequently you will know his reaction to be more controlled and disingenuous. "Controlled" is the last thing you want mafia to be; you want them to panic, which is the reason why pressure, which doesn't exist, exists.
Really, the fact that Ira is so insistent that Rosske should claim should tell you everything you need to know about whether Rosske should claim.

like each time you post its like listening to someone scrape their nails over a chalkboard, it is THAT bad. The things you are saying are so fucking stupid that I'm not even sure how

ANYONE

would not want to policy lynch you unless they knew you were town. I really don't want to play with you so just lynch me. I'm flipping town and then lynch the fuck out of Ira, Elyse, Gerry and DW. That should be all the scum.

vote:Nero

Because you are scum-aligned, because your posts are basically admitting that you are wrong about me.

The way you are talking to me now also proves this.

YOU ARE A FUCKING MORON

I have a solid as fuck case on you and there are a NUMBER of people calling you town against all fucking reason. If you were decent town/not scum you'd spend the 1 second it takes and THINK about the game.

Are you done yet?

Eh gerryoat doesn't really seem like scum to me. The posting style just speaks of newbtown on a gut level. Kinda helps to explain his approach to Rosske D2 also.

I'm not a noob. Maybe to forum mafia, but I've played mafia on other sites. So, while i appreciate the townread, that's a bad reason to townread someone because they could take advantage of that. Is there a list of townreads you have right now?

Bad reason to townread someone? "Newbtown" is surprisingly reliable, even if it doesn't apply in your case.
Gerry's rapid-fire posting style indicates a certain familiarity with role-madness chatroom mafia. Chatroom mafia is usually just about asking weird noncommittal questions and hoping someone slips; I feel that this is what he's doing. In which case, he is, in fact, scumhunting, in the way he is used to. He's not newbtown, he's just town from not-around.
^-----That's an okay, but ultimately mediocre reason to townread someone.

What BYF said lmao.

Zap is contradicting himself completely. Did you forget when you said that letting scum live with a softclaim allows them to tailor their claim as the game progresses so it makes sense.

Now is the best time for Rosske to claim because he can get CC'd if he's lying and we lynch him. But letting some PRs flip or claim will allow him to change it if he's lying.

You arguing that it's more beneficial for scum to hardclaim in this situation is ridiculous.

Zap/Rosske/ira team calling it now

Elyse, the entire point of your argument that Rosske should claim is because if he's lying, we can just cc him, right?
What if he claims a role that is not in the game, and is therefore not cc'd? You'd have just "confirmed" a mafia as a town PR in your worldview, if that's the extent of your rationale.
I feel that this should have been obvious.

I'm pretty sure Dw was 100% lynching Ira the day before but then saw the map wagon was picking up and was like "I could get a free ml with this" (I don't think he voted it but he was going to you can tell by the posts) and now is just pushing on Ira it's very shady

read the fucking thread

Just for giggles,
/me giggles

[Comparing Realities]

Or let him claim when he's darn good and ready? If you're just very publicly manufacturing a scenario for him to be under pressure (which doesn't exist btw) and then claim, he'll know it's all just a play, and consequently you will know his reaction to be more controlled and disingenuous.

Well, we don't know if he's mafia, and I think there is a good chance that he is which is why I'm so persistent on his claim. I'm sure you know that is he was mafia you would want a claim now. This post is very scumlike to me, mainly for that first question.

Or let him claim when he's darn good and ready?

"Controlled" is the last thing you want mafia to be; you want them to panic, which is the reason why pressure, which doesn't exist, exists.
Really, the fact that Ira is so insistent that Rosske should claim should tell you everything you need to know about whether Rosske should claim.

Okay, what if I want him to claim?

You want him to claim if and only if you think he stands a reasonable chance of being scum (or if you're mafia, well, you know he's town anyhow), and if you think he probably cannot be lynched today. If you're town, and Rosske is scum, then getting him to L-1 only to have him claim doctor and evade a lynch for a day is a failure on town's part.

@Maria I am not ignoring you, it's just that I don't have much to comment on what you say.

[Comparing Realities]

Or let him claim when he's darn good and ready? If you're just very publicly manufacturing a scenario for him to be under pressure (which doesn't exist btw) and then claim, he'll know it's all just a play, and consequently you will know his reaction to be more controlled and disingenuous.

Well, we don't know if he's mafia, and I think there is a good chance that he is which is why I'm so persistent on his claim. I'm sure you know that is he was mafia you would want a claim now. This post is very scumlike to me, mainly for that first question.

Or let him claim when he's darn good and ready?

If you're so sure he's scum, then, conditional on you being town, I respect your opinion. His reactions feel town, he's not in panic mode, he didn't claim when it would have been an easy way out of a lynch, so, in my opinion, he's probably town; ergo, he should let him claim at the time he feels is best.

"Controlled" is the last thing you want mafia to be; you want them to panic, which is the reason why pressure, which doesn't exist, exists.
Really, the fact that Ira is so insistent that Rosske should claim should tell you everything you need to know about whether Rosske should claim.

Okay, what if I want him to claim?

Following the above logic, that scum wants town PR to hardclaim? Then either you and Ira are scumbuddies, or you're wrong about your read of Rosske.

Here's an idea: bring Ira to L-1, let us be clear and unequivocal in our declaration that IRA WILL BE LYNCHED AND WE WILL NOT ACCEPT A SCAPEGOAT, and force Rosske's hand. Like those spy movies where they don't torture the guy, but instead strap a bomb to his bae to get the missile codes.

What makes you think Rosske would claim under this situation?

If Ira were about to be lynched, scum!Rosske might claim to distract town--"look, uncc'd PR says we should actually lynch this other guy!"--but you're right, it's burdened by its terrible improbability. I think when I wrote this, I was also hoping to elicit a reaction from Rosske about Ira's wagon, but he didn't comment on it, and I forget if that actually was part of what I was doing '^-^

Ira, I did not say you weren't scum, in fact I said you'd be a good lynch even if you were not blatantly scum (a double-negative meaning that you are blatantly scum and just flailing at this point), I've said before that Rosske should not fullclaim, and you're the one who wants him to fullclaim anyway so why is that a scumread for me if I just do it in a creative way, and you of

all people

should not be accusing others of spamming.

You

don't

want Rosske to claim?

...I get the feeling you didn't thoroughly read my megapost. Half of it was a logical proposition that Rosske shouldn't claim.

@CR
I disagree with you completely. Softclaiming is stupid and scummy. I would be more lenient with Rosske if he gave us something today but he hasn't and it makes the scale tip in the scum direction.

I posit that scum would actually take the easy low road and claim when the wagon is at moderate speed, like from early today. Rosske is refusing to claim, meaning he

really doesn't want to

, which means either patient, resilient, stable scum, or town.

Elyse, the entire point of your argument that Rosske should claim is because if he's lying, we can just cc him, right?
What if he claims a role that is not in the game, and is therefore not cc'd? You'd have just "confirmed" a mafia as a town PR in your worldview, if that's the extent of your rationale.
I feel that this should have been obvious.

Duh. But let's say he claims jailkeeper and there's a town roleblocker. The roleblocker can CC him and he dies.

But if he holds off another day, scum NK the town roleblocker, now Rosske knows not to claim JK. Like I said, I was fine with him not claiming yesterday but he's given us no additional information today which indicates to me that he's scum.

This scenario is incredibly improbable. Really, random fakeclaims get away without a cc more often than you'd think.

Oh we're finally getting votes on Ross? Thank god.

VOTE: Rosske I've been waiting.

Why not vote earlier if this is really a case of "finally we're lynching the bastard"...

@Elyse Explain your townread on Skold/Wake when they've contributed so little yet. It's nigh impossible to get any sort of read on them at all.

[Comparing Realities]

Nevermind about not being able to get a read. Looking back on Skold/Wake, both seem to be very hesitant about the Ira wagon, (on two occasions, Skold voted/scumread Ira, then unvoted immediately, an uncommon but effective tactic to create a false impression of towniness on the target--"I thought the case against Bob was good, but then I realized it wasn't."), and Wake supported a Rosske claim, saying he should have done it on D1 instead of softing.

See, this is such a suspicious thing to post...

Why do you even care? You are suspicious because I don't like your posts.

No, no it isn't. Why is someone pushing you for why you don't like their posts suspicious.

This all reeks of scum.

More on Iraon to follow.

The following post was the second-next post from Skold after the above:

Skipping that entire BYF/Ira exchange because

that is TvT

and I really don't care. Also because I dislike Ira's posting style. It's annoying to read.

Int to hammer Mapwolf

because I want stuff to happen rather than 5 pages of 1 on 1 action.

And it's never before been a problem for me to use that terminology, Elyse is probably just trying to make a big deal about it because she is scum-aligned and trying to make an excuse to policy lynch me.

I'm going to assume Elyse isn't boldfaced lying when I vote you for this. Will check later and if she is and has acted like she is scumreading you, I'll swap but I highly doubt someone would do that. Though I don't mind the ''aligned'' thing so much it just breaks up your posts a bit, this seems like a really shitty reason to scum read someone.
VOTE: Iraon

@Peoples - I will be moving soon so I will post but not often. You won't notice a difference, because I'm hardly active anyway, probably should have mentioned it like 3 days ago.

Wait never mind he's just being silly. Nothing in that ISO jumps out at me as something any scum player would want to say.
UNVOTE:
Imma need a while to think on this. Back to the lurk-cave.

"Wait nevermind"...? Skold dismissed an entire wagon how, exactly? If you look closely, that post came two minutes--two minutes!--after the previous one. Hardly enough time to check IRa's ISO.

As for Wake...

When someone is at L1, you get them to claim.

You don't have them crumb 'Oh, I'm a PR,' and then be done with it.

By having them hard-claim it becomes less easy for Scum to backtrack. Like, say, Doctor that claimed Day 1 yet miraculously is still alive Day 4.

f Scum at L1 crumbs being a PR, he's got the whoooole game to come up with a convincing fakeclaim,

Typical pro-claim argument, next.

VOTE: ira

Everyone give him a chance to claim.

VOTE: unvote

There's also the matter of why Ira did not follow along with Elyse's lynch of Black, which I cannot understand given the current constraints of this problem...

Perhaps pressure on Black is merited.

Despite my logic behind 1006 being fundamentally flawed, Wake used it as an excuse to get off of what was at the time the most prominent wagon. I would contend that the fake momentum-crash might have actually saved Ira's life yesterday. Somehow, Skold and Wake did the exact same thing three times in different circumstances, each time to Ira's benefit. What?

[Comparing Realities]

I wish there was a competency test that you had to take to get out of the newbie games.

I never even played a newbie game...

Stop trying to discredit me.

then no wonder you are so bad.

Are you an alt?

No, I am not...

This discussion is not relevant, please stop attacking me...

WTH, Nero? Really?

I'm subbing out if one more person acts like this.

[Comparing Realities]

Can we take a moment to appreciate how truly impressive the current vote count is?

Elyse - Zap Rowsdower [L-5]
BigYoshiFan - Gerryoat, Rosske [L-4]
Rosske - BigYoshiFan, iraonavp, Elyse, MariaR [L-2]
Ira - Comparing Realities, Nero Cain, Dwlee99 [L-3]
Not voting (1) - Wake
(Hammer at six)

What's the chances that none of the mafia are on the same wagon? This seems too discombobulated to actually be legitimate.

[Comparing Realities]

Can we take a moment to appreciate how truly impressive the current vote count is?

Elyse - Zap Rowsdower [L-5]
BigYoshiFan - Gerryoat, Rosske [L-4]
Rosske - BigYoshiFan, iraonavp, Elyse, MariaR [L-2]
Ira - Comparing Realities, Nero Cain, Dwlee99 [L-3]
Not voting (1) - Wake
(Hammer at six)

What's the chances that none of the mafia are on the same wagon? This seems too discombobulated to actually be legitimate.

If you say it like that, who would mafia be pushing on? I mean I would assume it would be smart for mafia all to push on different people. Assuming there are 3 mafia, you could say there is a mafia on 1 vote each (or one not voting) if you think they are spreading them. If they are on more than 1, who do you think they are pushing on?

Mafia is pushing Rosske. That should be obvious to us.

In what universe does forcing a claim out of somebody who is moderately scumread take precedence over lynching someone who is almost unanimously scumread with only a few exceptions? You say, Gerry, that Ira's posting style is peculiar, as opposed to their actual content. But he's posting in almost literally the exact same way as you, only with far less chatroom-y questions and far more violent, immediate reaction. Almost half his posts are him saying something along the very basic lines of "get off me" or "you're scum". Who better than to lead the charge, work up the raw energy against Rosske? Ira's a cheerleader. BYF/Elyse/Maria are the players. And I am tired right now and this paragraph sucks bad so goodnight.

[Comparing Realities]

Their votes have got to be spread out at this point, I don't think there are two on any single wagon, but I don't know if they are collectively pushing on one person to make that fake whole-town-is-doing-it impression that doesn't need a vote to take effect.

[Comparing Realities]

You have my condolences, Wake. Give your family whatever love you will accept from me.

Elyse - Zap Rowsdower [L-5]
BigYoshiFan - Gerryoat, Rosske [L-4]
Rosske - BigYoshiFan, Elyse [L-4]
Ira - Comparing Realities, Dwlee99 [L-4]
Comparing Realities - Nero, Ira, Maria [L-3]
Not voting (1) - Wake

Three days, twelve hours.

All is evidence. You've raised a few accusations against me; if I succeed in dispelling them, then do you agree that they are null and void? I've been waiting all game for Ira to raise an adequate defense. How disappointing it would be if I weren't offered the same courtesy.

Forethoughts: I expected as much from Ira, sheeping a BW started by Nero, one of Ira's principle scumreads, only because they dropped their scumread on Ira in the same post that they initiated the BW against the person who's pushing hardest for Ira's lynch. That's not OOC for them. But then; Maria gets a gold medal for New Zealand in Olympic Sheeping. Nero says he likes you, and immediately thereafter you're voting someone who isn't even among your top three scumreads. Look at the vote count. Shifting L-3 from Rosske to me did little, statistically speaking. However, are you honestly insinuating that I am scum, when BYF, Rosske, and Ira, the three most scumread people in this game, are sitting there ripe for the noose?
Do you honestly believe I ought to die, even though I'm not even in your top three scumreads list, in a situation with three scum left and only two MLs left before LyLo?
Or did you figure that my blood would fall on Nero's hands, and that you'd be relatively clear of suspicion for being on the wagon?
Do you legitimately not care who gets lynched?
Thank you, Nero; you did more for town in one unfathomable vote of your own than any amount of frustrated moaning apropos of Ira I could have done. You got the second scum.

Nero, so far as I can tell, your scumreading of me comes from four main factors [If I'm incorrect on this, say so]:

1) My apparent associations with DW (who you personally dislike) and/or Gerry
2) My telling Elyse to avoid confbiasing Zap, because that might have been mafia!CR knowing Zap was town
3) My beating up on Ira (parallel with DW, apparently)
4) (Probably) My "unwillingness to budge", unless you were referring to Gerry's "you can't convince me" line

Ira's play still blows and I have a hard time seeing his play from town but

I could imagine a town Ira with how CR and DW are treating him

.

A few things about this:

First, it's only suspicious if I'm treating him beyond unfairly, tunneling the frick out of him or refusing to be convinced.

Have I done that?
Yes, I have. I have, in fact, tunneled Ira.
Do you know why I've tunneled Ira?
Because I'm sitting here at my desk beyond flabbergasted each and every time I open the computer to see that, not only has everybody in this town just

conveniently ignored

the most spectacularly scummy mafia in the history of mafia, but they want a claimed PR to out

on day two

and they think this takes priority over actually

appropriately using their freaking lynches

to get said scum, and now I discover that the one person who really shared my frustration about Ira, who I actually had to criticize earlier for being

too

frustrated at Ira, has now started what is currently the most popular wagon partially because now "you can imagine a town Ira" what with the way the foul-tempered bastard that is I has been

treating him

.
So you might understand that I'm a

little cranky

about the situation, despite sort-of-successfully holding it together for the last couple days. The moment Ira flips is the moment town is shaken out of its drunken stupor.

Second, the suspicion is compounded as you have suggested if and only if me and DW have demonstrably been working in parallel paths.

Let's see what DW has had to say about Ira in, say, the last two hundred posts or so:

Spoiler: DW's case against Ira

VOTE: ira
if nothing else policy

i want to policy ira tbh

I can feel the pressure

i want to policy ira tbh

.[/quote

oml

Guys, ira needs rope

oops lmao
VOTE: Ira

just read his posts ???

just read his posts ???

Can I ask for your reads atm?

Dwlee99
Nero Cain
Zap Rowsdower *
BigYoshiFan *
MariaR
gerryoat
Rosske
Elyse
Comparing Realities
Skold Wake 88
iraonavp

something like this

Lynch ira gdi

Yeah. Obviously me and he are both beating up on the poor, unassuming, adorable little Ira, ergo, Ira is town because we're beating up so badly on them, the implication being that scum isn't nice to town (surely you're not suggesting that town is overly nice to Ira, are you? Because that is both true, and exactly contrary to your wagon).
So, you've made clear your dislike of DW; are you sure this isn't just me and DW being associated together on one issue, thus making me look bad in your eyes? Hillary Clinton is a salty bowl of suck, and that ends up making all Democrats look bad, despite them only being nominally related to her? There's a logical fallacy for that...
You know, there's a reason I point out standard B-grade logical flaws when I somehow manage to be perceptive enough to catch them. It's because we just end up in ruts like these if you're not constantly holding the dog's nose in its own crap.

And as for Gerry?

I kinda think that Elyse is town if CR is scum. Like I can't get the idea out of my head that CR telling Elyse that her scumreading ZAP was conformation bias. That seems alot like a thing that scum would say that knows Elyse is wrong and knows Zap is town. I've also been secretly scumreading Gerry for awhile and when Marie put some pressure on him its why I said I liked her better now. His (Gerry) saying "you can't convince me on CR rn." kinda makes me think they could be scum buddies, idk.

[/quote]

You think I like it when people go into political zombie mode? Even then, was this that? I thought that "right now" bit was operative, as though he were anticipating it to change. Are you entirely sure this isn't just--heylookatwherewe'vecome--mafia knowing I'm town? I mean, if your logic were consistent, wouldn't you also kinda think I was town if Gerry were mafia...?
I'd also like to note that saying someone is town if another person is scum does not count as a glowing endorsement of their own towniness. I get the feeling that Nero was actually trying to townread Elyse here while simultaneously scumreading me, but when it's time to scumread Gerry in tangential, though not exact fashion, it also counts as me being scum. The situations are wildly different, but their foundational scumsumption are the same--mafia knows who town is and thus can make astonishingly accurate townreads.

And as for my unwillingness to budge, or any unspoken words we have left, I need only recite one of the fundamental tenants of rationalism:

The evidence must be as extraordinary as the claim.

UNVOTE: Ira

Spoiler: My new freaking vote. They have earned it.

...Thought I was about to OMGUS, did you?
Just who do you think I am?
VOTE: Ira

[Comparing Realities]

I was going to crumb traitor D1 in my intro post by conversationally calling Gerry a "pal" and Maria a "friend", but the post deleted and I didn't have the time to both respond to the game itself and contrive another crumb. I procrastinated.
I knew that Ira was going to be the D2 lynch; all I had to do was tunnel them hard, then do a fake guilty on someone (I was leaning Zap, he creeped me out; I knew thatwhile he might not have been right at that moment, he was very likely to be right in the end) D3, try to take them out with me.
I was going to crumb traitor D2, but Maria said something completely absolutely bone-chillingly awful:

WAIT WAIT WAIT

Scum have fucking day chat??? I thought it was only nightchat unless stated otherwise

...I knew I'd have to go solo after that. I could not afford to die sooner than D3, that conversation would be fresh in town's memory.
Nero started a bw on me, and, of course, Ira hops on; what really freaked me out was Maria joining in. I had completely failed to notify her before then, so my reaction post was literally designed to do nothing but dispel Nero's concerns and tip her off to my identity. I wanted to tell her I knew she was scum while still voting Ira, classic bus buddy lynch town, while distancing us from one another if I did die; from the looks of it, the later part worked.
I honestly don't know how I got lynched. Elyse and BYF voted me with absolutely no reasoning, and Zap had said I was an ambiguous figure earlier. I thought I'd shot down all of Nero's talking points, but apparently not...
The Gerry townslip was ingenious; I literally LOL'd when I realized what he was doing (for a while there, I actually thought he legitimately didn't know what traitor did). Maria and Gerry's fighting made me so happy, I didn't contemplate what it felt like for you guys. It was like watching a soap opera for me; I was removed from the drama, and thus enjoyed every moment of what was cancer for you guys.

MVP mafia goes to Gerry; his only real threat in this game was Nero, and Maria indirectly exacerbated our early game play.
MVP town goes to Elyse for almost saving the game. Nero's gut reads, the people he

knew

were scum but failed to admit to himself, were impeccable, but overall, his play was very... peccable, and I can't even blame him. The antagonistic environment that me, Ira, Dw, Nero, Elyse (to a lesser extent), and especially Gerry/Maria created waged a noticeable toll on his psyche. Zap silently withered, but Nero visibly rotted.
...In retrospect, this game was pretty terrible, wasn't it?

The only three people in this game whose play I really, really liked were Zap, Elyse, and Gerry.
Zap had all the tools and all the brainpower necessary to come to correct conclusions, but there was always one critical variable he lacked that threw off his reads. Easily the best analytic mind in the game. IMO Zap's the most competent player here, but we ruined it for him.
Elyse

frightened me

. She stopped talking mid-early game, so I had know idea what she was thinking, but she was right with astonishing accuracy. Every time she made a concrete read on someone, if I recall correctly, it was awfully close to true, if not completely correct. However, the fact that she never managed to nab a truly game-changing investigation N1 or N2 was unfortunate. She almost saved the game with the two clears, but it just wasn't enough; I don't recall her softing who she would visit N3 either, if she had done that, it probably would have been a town win.
And Gerry managed to go the entire game without messing anything up. If he ever did anything wrong, it was getting Ira to townread him, ironically, which, if I recall correctly, was one of the reasons Nero first started FOSing him, despite the "townslip" Nero realized was contrived.

And, reluctantly, I have to admit that itlepip was right about this being a de facto balanced theme. Commuter is too situational, JOATs in general suck, non-consecutive JK and weak doctor were the only things that stood much of a chance of doing anything, really. If you reduce the practicality of it to just the JK and the weak doctor versus an encrypted scumteam, it's actually fairly balanced. All the other two PR's did was add an element of luck, while reducing the viability of scumhunting via claims. Rosske claiming PR caused such a panic partially because three other town members were already inclined to take his claim with a grain of salt.

I would also like to issue a formal apology for being a jerkbag to Ira. I got carried away with tunneling you, and personally insulted you. I'm... sorry about that, I just really wanted you dead.

...Alright, that should be all I wanted to say. I did have two questions, though:
1) How did I do?
2) Zap, you should join the in-signups Desperation Day micro or Flavorless micro.

p-edit: For the love of crap, give it a rest, literally nobody played to even 50% of their full potential this game.