Mini Theme 2222: Open Draft Mafia [Game Over]


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Post Post #68 (isolation #0) » Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:12 am

Post by NDMath »

I like the mechtalk so far and that is unusual for me.
In post 45, Almost50 wrote:
In post 2, MURDERCAT wrote:The mafia team then decides the number of slots down the playerlist to move when passing packs.
You all suck BIG time. (Not ALL all, but those who did claim their cards and/or discussed it)

Can anybody read? The MAFIA decides how the packs move. I dunno why cyrus would reveal he has a Doctor shot, or how House thinks Dunn can pass his card to someone else (unless he thinks/knows Dunn is Scum
We know how far the scumteam chooses to pass. So giving a little bit of information is probably helpful, since than we can see what scumteam does with that info, (as opposed to scumteam going only off their starting hands, which we do not know.) Especially for a card like mason, which town having accountability over is good.


VOTE: Dwlee99
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Post Post #153 (isolation #1) » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:53 pm

Post by NDMath »

In post 103, Bingle wrote: To be clear: the decision above is unilaterally Dunn's decision. Dunn should decide if he thinks half public masonry with him or going for a parity cop usage is better for town and announce that decision on D2. He should not announce it before then.
I disagree, I think the collective town should decide for Dunn later on in the day. We have more information in play to make a good decision with than town!Dunn alone (and the most important factor is people's read on Dunn, which is inherently more in control of the collective than Dunn), as well as it better thwarts scum!Dunn.

In post 130, cyrus62 wrote:here is my issue with me not talking about my cards. i dont know which is a better choice. im guessing the multi task role is a good card to remove from the pack due if scum gets it, it helps them make more kills but . i would like some thoughts on this fyi idc if we should or shouldn't talk about roles due to it being better for town to help each other.
Mafia are by default able to perform a personal ability and a factional kill in this setup, so multitask has roughly equal utility for town and scum.
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Post Post #154 (isolation #2) » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:57 pm

Post by NDMath »

Townleans on Dunn, Infinity, House
Light Scumleans on monkey and dwlee

Will be back to make more thorough thoughts than just that
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Post Post #162 (isolation #3) » Wed Jul 07, 2021 4:06 pm

Post by NDMath »

In post 160, Bingle wrote:Tell me about your Dwlee scumlean.
I think that T3's reasoning of dwlee townreading Cyrus first is nai; I don't really know the situation regarding cyrus but townreads were gonna pile there anyway and a scum!dwlee knows that.
And dwlee's tone seems different than my prior experience with them in a negative way.


For house townlean, in particular I think post 39 comes directly from a town mindset.

For infinity townlean, there arguing posts regarding dunn seems directly protown, and am now realizing they haven't done much else

Also @Bingle, I think you're underestimating the amount town can accomplish in a phase. It just takes keeping a running list of decisions we want to make collectively instead of individually, then once when eod approaches a more mech-based player like yourself makes a proposal covering all decisions, people argue a bit, proposal gets edited.
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Post Post #250 (isolation #4) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:17 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 164, Infinity 324 wrote:ND was a nothing the last time I played with scum!him so it looks good for him so far
I will overlook the part that I didn't know I've played with you before.
In post 236, Bingle wrote:
In post 232, House wrote:T3 is scumreading mastina for something he JUST saw her do as town in a game all 3 of us just finished.
Counterpoint:

Given the presumption that T3 knows mastina's opener is NAI or town indicative, why does scum T3 fake that read in a lobby that knows mastina?
Scum!T3 only needs to convince people that he thinks the opener is scummy, not that the opener is scummy.

Am liking house's points here.
VOTE: T3
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Post Post #255 (isolation #5) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:36 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 252, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 250, NDMath wrote:I will overlook the part that I didn't know I've played with you before.
I'll forgive you, you only made a couple posts before you replaced out

(Game was bending, a mini normal)
Weird.
Wouldn't recommend metaing me to that game.


@Flea
Do you have any reads yet?
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Post Post #354 (isolation #6) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:07 am

Post by NDMath »

I like taly's posts that have occurred in the last 24 hours.
Spoiler: In particular, these strike me as town-indicative
In post 261, Taly wrote: NDMATH and Infinity contain at least 1 town. I don't see how their interaction this page is S/S.
In post 267, Taly wrote:
In post 265, Bingle wrote:
In post 261, Taly wrote:Hmmm. Does Bingle normally spend time trying to deflate a wagon before it gains traction?
Only if it's on a player I don't think gets more readable when under pressure (i.e. Nancy or Gamma), but that's not actually what I'm doing here.
How would you frame your posts and the thread conversation the past several pages?
In post 275, Taly wrote:
In post 274, T3 wrote:You're right. My read on mastina is bad and the points I'm making about mastina are NAI.
Be candid, is this sarcasm or honesty?
In post 348, Taly wrote:Does T3 bus his partners or locks them out of a townbloc so early? Otherwise, T3 with any variation of {Bingle, Dunn, Dw} is the only possible scum partner(s) or team I could surmise with this slot. ~Maybe House in that pool too but House has like 0 reason to tunnel a partner? Like wtf. I mean, I've seen House bus D1 in a mafia game years ago so it's not impossible, but too big of a stretch without a flip on either.

Dunn claimed a Mason role. That deserves a level of trust if only for D1.

I keep agreeing with Dw's takes so I have difficulty thinking that's a scum POV.

I also townread Cyrus because it's hard to align an agenda with him, even down so his disposition to the thread discussion. Plus I also agree with T3's meta tale conclusion.

So I am feeling good about T3, Cyrus, Dw, and Dunn being town.



I think flea's reaction to dwlee's questions is overdone compared to the low amount of pressure fae initially put on house.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #7) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:14 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 359, Taly wrote: NDMATH, where are you at with reads and lims?
(Unordered within tiers)
Dunn Infinity House Taly
norwee mastina Bingle Dwlee
Flea Almost50 T3 cyrus

I don't want to hang anyone in the top row, to the point where I don't see that changing day1.
Don't feel I have much yet from momrangal/norwee or mastina.
Was mixed on Bingle, and they haven't posted since.
I'm liking dwlee more than I was initially, though could change my mind back.
I feel peer-pressured to have cyrus higher but I'm not convinced yet.
Last three are all scumreads I would support limming as of now. Don't like what flea's doing, this trolling and lack of content from A50 is scum-indicative in my experience with him, and I feel valid points have been brought up against T3.
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Post Post #393 (isolation #8) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:16 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 373, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I swear, Infinity is like the easiest player to read in existence.
I would like go hear your thoughts on the slot
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Post Post #394 (isolation #9) » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:16 am

Post by NDMath »

*to
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Post Post #511 (isolation #10) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:00 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 442, mastina wrote: But since you brought up a readslist, let's form another!

Flea the Magician
Taly

Dunnstral
Bingle

Locktown, has good reason to be treated as locktown
Can you explain the flea and bingle townreads?
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Post Post #512 (isolation #11) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:02 am

Post by NDMath »

Unsure how serious I should take mastina v norwee argument, but would vote norwee before mastina as of now.
In post 448, Bingle wrote:
In post 348, Taly wrote:
I'll ask a third time:
Why is T3 scum here when he has misread Mastina as town in the past?
This is House's answer, btw.
In post 237, House wrote:Already stated. It's an easy thing to duplicate since he's done it as town, which is what I suspect he's doing because of his unwillingness to accept the fact that posting early reads isn't some sort of magical scum tell for her.

He's invested in his narrative.
He hasn't really explained why T3 *would* go out of his way to duplicate NAI behavior as scum.
Easy to do, something to do, may be viewed as town-indicative.
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Post Post #513 (isolation #12) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:02 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 477, Almost50 wrote: So, here's my request from EVRYONE:

Give a definite read on me, and try to speculate on what my "scum slip" was meant for. Thank you
Mafia, wifom or low-effort


@A50
If you survive today+tonight, your pack will be passed to someone else. We will be able to determine who that is, allowing us to keep accountability over the pack. Therefore, it is far more productive for you to make reads and play the game than to try to get yourself pl'd.
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Post Post #649 (isolation #13) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:57 pm

Post by NDMath »

VOTE: norwee
Liking my vote here more than on t3 now.
In post 630, T3 wrote:Why is House town?
I still think post 39 comes directly from a town mindset.
They were the one who pushed you over your mastina read, which you later conceded:
Spoiler:
In post 274, T3 wrote:You're right. My read on mastina is bad and the points I'm making about mastina are NAI.
In post 276, T3 wrote:
In post 275, Taly wrote:
In post 274, T3 wrote:You're right. My read on mastina is bad and the points I'm making about mastina are NAI.
Be candid, is this sarcasm or honesty?
Honesty.

I think he's on the better side of the interaction between him and Bingle where they repeated their opinions back to eachother.
His progression on A50 looks natural.
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Post Post #731 (isolation #14) » Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:45 pm

Post by NDMath »

In post 663, T3 wrote:Dunn putting this much effort into a game and the Mason claim which has no scum motivation is very +town AI, or so I've heard. I hav yet to see for myself.
"this much effort"?
In post 712, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 640, House wrote:
In post 623, Infinity 324 wrote:Though tbh I don't think it's fair to say I haven't looked for scum, I've pushed t3, a50, and house
I wouldn't call a flaccid, unexplained vote with no questioning or accusations much of a push.
This is the post in question for others
Someone remind me why we're making house answer every question three times.
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Post Post #732 (isolation #15) » Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:49 pm

Post by NDMath »

@Infinity, What is your read on flea?

@House, Do you have thoughts on the mastina v norwee interaction?
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Post Post #822 (isolation #16) » Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:33 am

Post by NDMath »

Spoiler:
In post 738, mastina wrote:When I say everything is different, I do mean literally everything. I mean night and day difference when I say it.

And think about it--how would
you
go about describing to someone who genuinely doesn't know what 'night' and 'day' are, how to describe the polar opposites? They're so natural to you, so obvious, so innate, so inherently apparent to you that you would struggle to find the words. You can see it yourself, what day is, and what night is, so how can you describe something that is second-nature to you to someone who doesn't have any idea of what night and day are?

The same way actually describing the concepts of 'night' and 'day' to someone who doesn't know what they are is something difficult to you when they are so innate, so inherent, to you, describing your towngame and scumgame's difference is something that I find difficult because it is so transparently obvious, so immediately stupidly obvious by knowing your towngame that this isn't it, that I don't know where to begin.

It's not
impossible
to describe the difference! Just like describing how night and day are opposites isn't impossible, describing how this isn't your towngame isn't impossible. But I don't know where to begin.

This seems absurd to me; the more and bigger the differences the easier they are to point at.
Also, you still haven't explained your flea townread.

In post 767, Infinity 324 wrote:I don't have a read on flea.
I was planning to use your response to decide if I should move my vote there..

In post 792, Infinity 324 wrote:A50 could be scum, I feel like it's mostly a matter of the people who know a50 best and mastina/bingle think he's town so.

I feel similar about norwee tbh. I feel like at this point in the day I'm ok just limming anyone outside of my townreads because I don't think I'm gonna get a good scumread.

Do you townread norwee?
In post 793, Infinity 324 wrote:Townreads: mastina, dunn, cyrus, NDMath, taly, T3 somewhat
I don't object to using that list currently, though still would add house.
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Post Post #823 (isolation #17) » Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:37 am

Post by NDMath »

Also mech things:

I want at L-1/intent to hammer/whatever the person to claim any unique cards (and mason) in their hand. I don't think there's benefit to hearing the non-unique ones.

I'm still pro having Dunn not take the mason card, but definitely less so than I was at the start of the day.
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Post Post #873 (isolation #18) » Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:12 pm

Post by NDMath »

In post 825, Bingle wrote:
In post 823, NDMath wrote:I want at L-1/intent to hammer/whatever the person to claim any unique cards (and mason) in their hand. I don't think there's benefit to hearing the non-unique ones.
This really doesn't matter, tbh.
It still benefits town more than scum, albeit not much.

In post 861, T3 wrote:VOTE: mastina
Norwee's recent posts make sense and I agree with his thought process on Binge.
Can you elaborate on the mastina vote? (Unless I skipped over a post your last mention of them was post 534)
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Post Post #1033 (isolation #19) » Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:30 am

Post by NDMath »

Spoiler: Relevant Mastina Stuff
In post 976, mastina wrote:
In post 798, Bingle wrote:Also, if you have a game or two that you think shows norwee scum I’d appreciate it, because I’m pretty sure he’s told me his scum game is easy to catch before and I don’t remember ever seeing it.
I think you're misinterpreting my point here.

I've never seen NorwegianboyEE as scum before this game.

I don't have any scum meta for Norwee.

But I do have town meta with Norwee, and can tell instantly that this? Isn't that. I've played with Norwee enough times to tell that this isn't Norwee as town, even remotely. It's "off" in a fundamental way that I can't see as being anything other than being due to him being scum because it's just...not him as town, in tone, in content, in posting, in everything.
In post 979, mastina wrote:
In post 822, NDMath wrote:This seems absurd to me; the more and bigger the differences the easier they are to point at.
No?

When the differences are that big, it makes it
harder
to explain, not easier.

Besides, this is not something I would lie about.

I can say something is difficult to explain.
I can refuse to explain.
I can have situations where I have no explanation.
I can bullshit an explanation as scum.

But these are not used to cover for each other.
When something's hard to explain, it's not something I refuse to explain;
When something's hard to explain, it's not something I have no explanation for;
When something's hard to explain, it's not something I need to bullshit;
When I refuse to explain, it's not because it's difficult to explain;
When I refuse to explain, it's not because it's something I have no explanation for;
When I refuse to explain, it's not because I need to bullshit an explanation;
When I don't have an explanation, it's not something I refuse to explain;
When I don't have an explanation, it's not something that's hard to explain;
When I don't have an explanation, its not because I need to bullshit an explanation.

When I say I don't have an explanation, I mean exactly that; I don't have an explanation.
When I refuse to explain, it's just that; I have a reason not to explain and am fully capable of doing so, when I feel it is the right time to do so.
When I bullshit an explanation, obviously I didn't need to refuse or say I can't explain or say it's difficult to explain because clearly by virtue of me having bullshitted the explanation, it was none of those.

So...
...When I say something is hard to explain that means, regardless of my alignment, it is
hard to explain
.

I don't fucking lie. Never have, never will. I am perfectly capable of bullshitting explanations as scum; I don't need to pretend something is hard to explain in order to bullshit a read. So when I say I find it hard to explain, that means exactly that. Regardless of my alignment. It. isn't. easy. to. explain.

And I mean it here.

Describing the differences between Norwee as town and scum isn't easy. Them being polar opposites makes it
harder
to explain, not easier, because subtle nuanced differences are ridiculously easy to compare and contrast, but big vast gulfs of distinctions are harder to find the words to describe adequately.


Why
are you going on these big tangents about how huge of a difference day and night are and how that makes it close to impossible to describe the difference when you don't even know what night is???

Like I imagine that the wall you would be running into here is that you're not sure which abnormalities are alignment-indicative, if any, and which are environmental. I get that you'd find it scummy, but I don't understand how you go directly to the conclusion that it's all alignment indicative and is fully a representation of norwee scumplay, without knowing what norwee's scumplay looks like.

I'm not denying that it's hard for you to explain, my conclusion is that because it's hard to explain the differences must not be either as big or as plentiful as you are describing. I feel you should be able to go down the list you gave "in tone, in content, in posting, in everything." and say "norwee's tone is much more {describing words} this game than as town", "norwee's content is focused on w and x instead of y and z", etc. I don't think stating the differences can be as intangible for you as they seem to be, with the confidence you clearly have in the read. Your post is a start but to me that's just elaborating infinity's explanation of a single difference.

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #1223 (isolation #20) » Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:45 am

Post by NDMath »

agh I'm not sure what I want to d
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Post Post #1224 (isolation #21) » Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:46 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 1150, Bingle wrote: UNVOTE:

I’m super disengaged, but that looks like townstina so I should probably reset here.
Can you walk me through this since I'm less familiar with mastina & it's the set of posts I had the opposite reaction to?
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Post Post #1349 (isolation #22) » Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:30 pm

Post by NDMath »

In post 1236, Bingle wrote:@Math
In post 976, mastina wrote:Snip
There were a few things I found town with this post. First of all, the self meta is NAI, but fairly accurate. It does show that there is a logical progression behind her tunnel on Norwee, which is a good sign. Secondly, the sentence 'anyone who doesn't see that this is my towngame is a fucking idiot because this is painfully transparently my towngame' is unironically town indicative for mastina. It's not something that she tends to think while scum, and even if I don't agree that she'd been exceptionally town up to that point it is more likely than not that SHE believes that which is the important thing. The fact she assumes my "I don't hate this readslist" post was an agreement with the reads instead of a "This looks consistent with what I'd expect the you making the pushes you're making would think" combined with the appeal to sheep her on Norwee points to an actual desire to see this Norwee wagon through. If scum bussing, mastina would be happy that I seem to want to table the 1v1 for a day there, and probably wouldn't be pushing as hard as she is to continue it.

The Taly read is overexplained in a way that made me feel she was actually trying to get me to think about things. I don't agree with the logic (particularly, the concept that Taly scum wouldn't be surprised about a townread when she supposedly defaults to scumreads on him) but I can follow it, and it doesn't need to be right to come from town.

In fact, one of the biggest towntells from mastina is that while I can see why she's thinking what she's thinking, I don't really agree that the conclusions are accurate. That makes me think she's naturally working through thoughts to reach conclusions instead of starting from an informed perspective. What did you not like about mastina's posting in that period?
I believe I understand those.

Major thing as mentioned before is that I felt the statement that she hadn't played with scum!norwee before completely derailed my understanding of her progression up to that point.
Also in post 976, her response to 776 is 744 v2 which is completely bleh. Rest of that post is fine but null to me since "This is, transparently, my towngame" means nothing to me.
984 is fixing a behavior and then calling norwee wrong for saying the behavior was bad and only using evidence of it not being bad after norwee made the statement, which I struggle to see as genuine.
The reads themselves and the posts towards infinity are also fine.

In post 1316, Titus wrote:
In post 318, Flea The Magician wrote:VOTE: House
I feel good on this.

Mom is scum too.
Flea Mom associatives
This reminds me that flea's interaction towards that slot had also given me w/w vibes.
(Namely right before momrangal got replaced out.)


I am dreading trying to get seven people on a wagon.
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Post Post #1350 (isolation #23) » Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:44 pm

Post by NDMath »

I am back to preferring a flea or a50 wagon but based off the vc + deadline neither of those look like productive places to park a vote.
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Post Post #1501 (isolation #24) » Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:38 pm

Post by NDMath »

In post 1445, Flea The Magician wrote:ok so NWEE is scum, straight up. Mom WIM tell.
Titus knows me better than to yeet me D1 unless I prove a capable threat.
T3 also knows my play means I am never a day 1 yeet.
First statement: in both of the two games I've played with momrangal (under the alt Artemenia) they were town and flaked out without doing much. You were there for one of those.
I also have zero clue what your argument regarding never being yeeted day 1 is.
In post 1492, House wrote:
In post 1491, Titus wrote:Willing to vote T3 prefer Flea but I need to review.
I tried to reset on T3. I really did ... but I don't see how anybody can look at his play and think "town", especially since the flea wagon started.
Other than his fluff rate greatly increasing I don't see what you're referring to.
I don't see him wanting to rush the flea wagon being something he'd only do as on alignment.


Not much happened in the last five pages beyond flea and T3 wagons forming.
(Also I'm not available again for this game until the last hour before deadline so this is likely my last post of the day.)

VOTE: flea the magician
L-2 currently
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Post Post #1523 (isolation #25) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:43 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 705, Bingle wrote:
In post 695, Flea The Magician wrote:I'll be claiming actions at minimum
One shot investigation roles should be claimed the day after use, preferably in the format of “I investigated player x last night, claim.”
I investigated Bingle last night, claim.


I need to reread some stuff
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Post Post #1524 (isolation #26) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:51 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 1510, Infinity 324 wrote: He responded "weird" to an early townread of him which is a developing scumtell of mine which I just remembered that he did
That was to discovering I had played with you before but having zero memory of it
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Post Post #1568 (isolation #27) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:15 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 1551, Bingle wrote:
In post 1523, NDMath wrote:I investigated Bingle last night, claim.
I was untargetable.

Now is the point that we should claim any disproportionately scum oriented roles that were in our opening packs like commuter, multitasking, strongman, ascetic.

My pack had two commutes.
That checks out.
The final commute and a 1shot roleblock coming your way.
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Post Post #1651 (isolation #28) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:04 pm

Post by NDMath »

In post 1627, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1604, Infinity 324 wrote:I'm sorry if I'm being an idiot but

If he took a 1-shot activated ascetic

Why not say that he took a 1-shot activated ascetic

What is the benefit to saying he took a commuter instead??
Commuter cannot have another action. Ascetic can perform the factional kill.
This seems far and away the most likely scenario.

For me to be scum from this I say "yo Bingle you're getting a commute card" and then tomorrow "lol jk please don't kill me". It basically locks scum!me into killing bingle tonight for no benefit at all. Then I also get into this cc from the 1 remaining commute card being in play versus Bingle's safer bet needing two for two.

In post 1605, Titus wrote:@NDMATH, What did you use to investigate Bingle?
In post 1610, Titus wrote:I just want to hear what
NDMath used to target Bingle and why.
Then I'll be ready to end the day.
It was the N1 Follower.
When considering candidates to investigate I crossed off everyone besides T3, norwee, and Bingle. Bingle being more mechanically oriented, would as scum nearly always be the member deciding night actions and because of this is greater than rand chance to commit the kill due to it being easier to just say ill do it than make someone else. I liked his method for claiming and felt more comfortable saying it to him than someone else. Also investigating a major wagon of yesterday with something weaker than a cop shot didn't make sense.



For packs, as Titus said everyone who receives a 1shot commuter tonight needs to take it.
Also, I want Mastina to take the Vanilla card (from originality A50's pack). They are incriminated from bingle scum as well as the deck pass, and forcing the two strongmans to be taken N4 and N5 is just better anyway.
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Post Post #1661 (isolation #29) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:16 pm

Post by NDMath »

In post 1660, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1659, mastina wrote:A bit of a useless question since someone did this if there is in fact a maximum of 3 commutes possible--with 4 claimed, that means someone did. The question of "why say they have a commute when they don't" can be asked of all 3 claims, and the answer is baffling regardless of which is the liar, but if our collective understanding of the mechanics is correct, there is in fact a liar.
Sure, but if there is an explanation it might help us think about who would be the most likely to lie.

Turns out there is (bingle not wanting to admit he took an ascetic) but it's not that satisfying to me because I'm still wondering why he wouldn't just take the commuter.
So he can be ascetic while committing the kill, since commuter typically means you can't do anything else that night. (Granted it's not on the open draft wiki page so this may be incorrect)



@Mastina Do you have any protest to taking the Vanilla role from your pack tonight? {Vanilla, Neighbor, 1-Shot Strongman, 1-Shot Strongman}
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Post Post #1743 (isolation #30) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:47 pm

Post by NDMath »

It's also worth noting that all four strongman cards have been claimed.
Mastina took one night1.
A50 started with two, didn't take either.
Dwlee started with one, unknown if he took it.


(Updated Bingle's Chart)
Dunnstral -> A50 -> Dwlee
Bingle -> Dwlee -> Mastina
Almost50 -> mastina -> Titus
Dwlee99 -> Titus -> NDMath
mastina -> NDMath -> Norwee
Titus -> Norwee -> Dunn
T3 -> Dunn -> Bingle
NDMath -> Bingle -> Infinity
Norwee -> Infinity -> A50
House -> T3
Infinity -> House
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Post Post #1829 (isolation #31) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:17 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 1757, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1748, Dunnstral wrote:I have something minor to add after the rest of this stuff plays out
T3's pack had a night 2 jailkeeper in it, I felt compelled to use it so I used it on Bingle
I like this since that's how I was planning to use the card if I received it.
In post 1777, Infinity 324 wrote: Mastina is still 100% town and even disregarding her shooting role I'm not sure why she was investigated
Why, and what/when is 'still' referring to?



On the one hand, the way mastina talks about picking cards from the pack is not at all how I would view the pack if town!me got it night 1, on the other hand I know that I think differently than mastina in general.
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Post Post #1945 (isolation #32) » Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:43 pm

Post by NDMath »

Been busy with state fair stuff, will try to up my activity level for the rest of the day phase.
In post 1841, Bingle wrote:
In post 1832, Titus wrote:Since rolecop has a gun (I thought it didn't), I have a gun. I rolecopped NDMath as I felt her claim was bullshit.
Townpoints. Best use of rolecop is to confirm already claimed roles. Doesn’t clear math at all though.
These statements technically cannot both be true (Unless I'm misunderstanding you). Telling the truth has to be at least slightly town-indicative for me (to balance out lying being a guilty) or else I was an awful rolecop target.

In post 1850, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1844, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 1831, Infinity 324 wrote:She was pretty obviously town on d1 imo, the best example of which was when she very confident explained why she can't be scum here.
Which post was that?
Idk i’ve been mostly townreading them for the effort but i don’t really like how tunneled they are.
I had expressed my problems with that set of posts in 1033 and 1349.
Based on Bingle's answers to me around that time the conclusion is I just don't know how to read mastina at all, so like I'm struggling to be confident in a read on mastina.



Kind of want to vote dwlee here, but it's moreso an I don't want to vote anyone else as of now.
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Post Post #1955 (isolation #33) » Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:46 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 1946, Bingle wrote:
In post 1945, NDMath wrote:These statements technically cannot both be true (Unless I'm misunderstanding you). Telling the truth has to be at least slightly town-indicative for me (to balance out lying being a guilty) or else I was an awful rolecop target.
Sure they can. The best town use of a rolecop is on an already claimed player in an attempt to catch them in a lie. That would be a guilty. You having told the truth about your claim doesn't make you more likely to be town. It's kind of like how a N1 track with no result in a normal isn't really useful information, but a N1 track to a kill is very useful information.
Mathematically, it does a proportional amount to the likelihood of me lying. Like how a N1 track to no where deduces that the target didn't commit the kill and reduces that player's chance of being scum by the likelihood of them committing the kill N1.

In post 1946, Bingle wrote: WRT your PoE being so small, do you mind sharing a readslist? Particularly interested in your takes on A50/Dunn/Norwee.
Infinity Titus
A50
Norwee Dunn
Mastina Bingle
Dwlee

The mastina/bingle tier is an idk where to place rather than null, like I feel I probably should have each of them higher currently but don't really.

With almost50, I'm seeing them as town much easier than I was day1. His pack claim of trying to get himself killed has played out much better than I had anticipated and I'm now on board with the thought process that it'd be a very weird thing for him to do as scum. His d2/d3 posting also looks roughly like what I'd expect from town!a50 in terms of what he chooses to comment on.

Dunn is north of null pretty much because of the mason claim, there's nothing I scumread him for but wouldn't be surprised for him to flip either way.

With Norwee, the only arguments against them I've found persuasive was from Taly, I probably need to revisit those. Major difference between norwee and dwlee for me is that I've had more positive internal reactions to norwee's posts "that's a good point" or "I like that question" while I've felt very indifferent(?) to dwlee's posts.
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Post Post #2078 (isolation #34) » Sun Aug 01, 2021 1:21 am

Post by NDMath »

In post 1956, Infinity 324 wrote:Hmm why does scum!dunn pass a mason wouldn't that be a scumclaim?
As A50 interpreted, I was primarily referring to claiming he has the card. I also think house proposing & arguing for Dunn to not take the mason while Dunn has a strong preference towards taking it would be a weird interaction for w/w.

In post 1979, Bingle wrote:
In post 1955, NDMath wrote:Mathematically, it does a proportional amount to the likelihood of me lying. Like how a N1 track to no where deduces that the target didn't commit the kill and reduces that player's chance of being scum by the likelihood of them committing the kill N1.
Sure. Just like mathematically you not having been modkilled for posting a screenshot of a town role PM makes you more likely to be scum. Basically everything that we say is NAI isn't truly NAI, it's just impossible to have perfect enough information to actually determine whether it's AI or not.

It doesn't meaningfully impact my read of you though.

1. Do you believe I should have you as a townread based on you having taken follower, a utility role for both town and scum? If so, why?
2. Do you believe I shouldn't have a townread on Titus as a result of Titus' claim of targeting you, for the reasons I've already explained? If so, why?
3. Do you have a point to this incredibly semantic argument?
1. No, I think the scenarios where I lie to say I have that card as mafia are near nonexistent.
2. I don't necessarily disagree with the townread for titus's action, but I believed your reasoning contradicted some of your previous reasoning (which turns out to be because you use a different definition of 'not alignment-indicative' than I'm used to.)
3. You stated what looked to me a contradiction, and I don't think you say a contradiction there as either alignment, so I was trying to figure out what you actually meant as it seemed important for me to understand.


I think I am fine/good with norwee wagon.
Hammer coming after I look at mastina's posts again & make sure there isn't anything else I want to say
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Post Post #2079 (isolation #35) » Sun Aug 01, 2021 1:59 am

Post by NDMath »

With a reread of Dunn's iso I still think he'll flip town a notable amount more likely than not.


If norwee flips town I think I want to go for dwlee, and if dwlee then flips town mastina, but idk how to feel about that so I'm hoping norwee just flips scum.
In particular I'm struggling with that I'm still very suspicious of the player (mastina) that my top townread (infinity) is calling obvtown.

VOTE: norwee
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Post Post #2085 (isolation #36) » Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:19 am

Post by NDMath »

VOTE: dwlee
Hard Guilty
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Post Post #2089 (isolation #37) » Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:23 am

Post by NDMath »

Dwlee used both a protective action and a killing action n3 so...
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Post Post #2141 (isolation #38) » Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:55 pm

Post by NDMath »

In post 2097, MURDERCAT wrote:Very interested in feedback about both the overall concept and specific roles. If anyone has ideas for how to give scum a bit more power please share. Unfortunately there aren't that many roles that give scum power in their own right, most are also useful for town or just counteract town power. I do think adding another vig/vengeful in could be fun.
First thought is that mafia could benefit a decent amount (depending on their starting cards) from the three 1-Shot rolecops being dropped, since it allows them more opportunity to lie about their n1 card.

Currently vanilla cards just never get taken because the game will rarely last to night 5 (each hand averages 1 vanilla) and if it does there's just gonna be four or five decks left at that point. Just adding vanillas to inflate the 104 card deck to 117 (averaging 1.5) or 130 (averaging 1.75) would benefit scum.

Thinking on it more, inflating the amount of vanilla cards to a point of balance is probably just a lazier solution compared to going through and decreasing the strength of roles.
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Post Post #2142 (isolation #39) » Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:57 pm

Post by NDMath »

^also don't think either of the above are enough to reach balance, just notable progress

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