Mini 1310: I Got My Eye On You Mafia (Game Over!)

[Rainbowdash]

unvote

I can confirm that im a miller varient role. Its not called "miller" though will not say real role because it reveals what if any additional abilities I have, and like DW said it specifically investigates as mafia goon which is probably important. Was an offshoot miller last time and it was based off a specific hidden mechanic. Think he is stupid for claiming miller, but DW is a bit of a derp to start. One of those who is just useful enough to stop everypony from policy lynching him.

Speaking of policy lynches hi kondi and CSL.

Other important points

1) We are not all targeting the same player with our roles. That would be derpy as it allows for maximum scum manipulation
2) Tomorrow you hypo cop and gunsmith.
3) AD is town, and I think Glass is town, vijay just reads town also.
4) CSL and malthus are good scum picks. Ice isnt bad. All the wagons going on suck.

Vote CSL

Explain your hop to DW wagon. Case... tomorrow maybe? Will have to work around a meeting to get something up of substance.

[Rainbowdash]

I would prefer not to link the game because its on a differet account and really (three years maybe?) old either way. Basically scum had a slightly modified win condition where they needed X ammount of each color which each townie held a few, my role had no colors and through PM wording I figured out that ment miller as there was a role that was a color checker and claimed it during twilight.

Here im saying that my role is not "miller" its something else that makes me investigate as "mafia goon". What my role is though explicitly says what my other abilites if any are.

Everypony not on the list im more null on. There are ones I like more or less than others, but more conflicted on the rest.

[Rainbowdash]

I'm more confident in Lucky scum.

K'
Any idea's on his possible scum buddies?
I can't seem to figure out any tbh.

I am claiming exactly what I said I am claiming. I am not "miller" but investigate as mafia goon to investigative roles, my full role name says what power, if others, I have so im not going to claim it.

[Rainbowdash]

No, claiming miller on D1 is actually the optimal strategy.

Claiming miller is only optimal strategy for weak players who tend to get investigated a lot. In four years I have been investigated... two times I think? No way I would have claimed if DW didnt to start.

Please claim your exact role including flavor.

No. I already said my role name reveals what, if any, other abilites I have. Flavor is weak, but is worded in such a way that makes it likely the "mafia goon" aspect may be important. Im not going to claim for you so stop asking. If anypony is role fishing its you.

[Rainbowdash]

Can you clarify if your role does specify that 'all investigations against you' would turn up guilty? Also, exactly what sort of investigations would that imply?

Any investigative roles that target me will receive a result such as if I am a mafia goon. This means to a cop I should turn up mafia, role cop mafia goon, but if there is some reverse role like "are they a mafia PR" I should come up with an innocent result. As im thinking about it im firing off a couple questions to the mod right now.

All of the ways this is worded though make me think that somepony can use this information.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok other stuff... just because I investigate as a goon doesnt mean I picked up any gravedigger abilities, so I would not be auto-tracked/watched to anypony who dies. I also would not kill any hider or any role along those lines that targets me.

[Rainbowdash]

Mostly like your reads, except for the obvious lack of lucky except to say that the ongoing wagons suck. Why does the lucky wagon suck?

Im conflicted about lucky. There were a few poasts from him that I liked, and the wagon doesnt instill large amount of confidence due to the members.

(Also, who did csl replace again?)

RC

[Rainbowdash]

So you're conflicted about him ... but the wagon "sucks?" Doesn't add up.

CSL is my top scum pick. Im not a big fan of OOTN. When I see a few things about lucky that have me thinking they may be more VI-ish town, im not a fan of the wagon. Obviously its better than a few picks, but im not a fan so will be trying to move things elsewhere.

[Rainbowdash]

@ Malthusis: I think he just said that trackers and watchers don't affect him in that way. In the post about "gravedigger" abilities or whatever.

Gravedigger is a very rare role that I used for example. Its like a miller that instead of showing up guilty to cops always is revealed to what targeted anypony who dies.

Basically I have X role that investigates as a goon. I will be tracked or anything along those lines as what my X role is. If I target somepony, I am tracked to them. If I do nothing, I get tracked nowhere. Also as I said any roles with a "if target scum they die" clause exists, I wont kill them.

CSL lynch im still happy with, but not without a claim. We never lynch without a claim in something that sounds PR heavy.

[Rainbowdash]

I have no faith in the competence of other ponies at this point. Everything needs to be as simply spelled out as possible if not simpler.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote
Vote malthusis

Woah woah woah

I need to at very least think about this. Zero to six votes in ten seconds flat with NO case ever being made? Smells fishy.

@OOTM and malthus - Give me your CSL cases.

[Rainbowdash]

I have none. My case is against Rylai, CSL's predecessor, who I've been rallying case against for the first 2/3rds of the game, and then only recently dropped because he got replaced out. Have you explored the cache thoroughly yet? It should have been fairly ovious I've been wanting to lynch him for a looooooong time.

Ive skimmed the cache but its more frustrating when my normal methods of reading cant be used there.

Summarize/Quote a case for me though, you should have seen this question coming.

@istark - If you had a choice between v2v and CSL who would you lynch?

[Rainbowdash]

Keep thinking about it, really dont like the way this CSL wagon took off the way it did. Especially the tail end of istark/OOTN/malthusis who all are varying degrees of scummy. Im not getting back on.

@malthusis - What is the difference between RC flaking and CSL flaking?
@Amrun - Skimming cache again it was page 3 that gives me a lucky-town read. That type of reaction just reads like town who really is just trying to figure out what they are supposed to do.

Malthusis is scum though. He talks about how he has a super strong case on RC here, but its not in the cache from what I just looked through. He actually spends more time arguing things like why some are wrong about certain facts or why DW has to be scum for the claim.

Interesting aside though for the claim aspect of things: He says its because a goon offers him more cover, but its never explained how it does. Just a statement of fact.

Anyways, despite being sure of RC, he actually has done nothing to try and convince anypony that he actually is scum. Most of what he has done is strike a threatening pose towards AD for defending RC, which really doesnt do much to help us in understanting why he thinks that RC is scum in the firstplace.

What really bugs me is that he gives up the RC vote because he "ran away". Later we see CSL replace out (running away?) and malthusis immediately jumps back on him now that the lynch is a possibility.

[Rainbowdash]

@Rainbowdash: I don't exactly have a case. My gut put him in null, and I can support a lynch from my null reads. I can try and read through to make a case though. But that will have to come later today, as I'm busy until the afternoon.

Why compramise on CSL instead of any other wagon? Also why are you making a case on a null read? Also who is your top pick and why? Where does CSL stand in your scumminess list?

[Rainbowdash]

You are being unforgivably lazy and I don't see many other explanations besides being scum.

Yeah this is where im kinda torn on IG and why I would rather lynch malthusis today. Its rare to see scum try and semi-counter a claim. Ive semi-countered once, as town, its just something that will be rare for scum to do.

I dont like his play much, but as I keep thinking about it, this type of play is more often then not town thinking they are being smart.

This vote from him is BAD though.

[Rainbowdash]

@OOTN - How come you did nothing untill deadline at which point you are just wagoning a null read?

unvote
Vote OOTN

There is your counter wagon everypony. Take your pick and grab one or be saying why both OOTN and CSL are town in your next post.

[Rainbowdash]

That's because I'm planning to do much more during the night. I will read up on the game then as there are no distractions and it will be easier to focus.

Lets try this: explain why v2v and lucky are scum. If you are using the word "gut" it must be directly attached to a post that activates your gut.

[Rainbowdash]

My gut goes off on the feel of peoples posts. Not certain posts specifically.

Try

Also I explained earlier that I'm starting to lean v2v town.

Due to?

[Rainbowdash]

How the fuck did rainbow beat me to it

Fastest in Equestria.

Get used to it.

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah it probably doesn't mean much.
I'm just thinking aloud.

ALso Dan promised content but still hasn't delivered.

Are you calling Dan scum?

"Hey guys, I have an idea! Instead of voting people who Molla thinks are scummy, let's lynch his townreads!"

srs guys wtf

Remember when I said "If you think OOTN and CSL are town explain it"? I wasnt lying about that request.

Im all weirded out over all of this. Frick I almost want to say buck it lets all compramise and lynch lopsy or something. Anypony down for another power move?

My mane problem here is that im not sure if we can even do anything BUT lyching CSL at this point... I just really think that late part of the wagon on him is more likely than not scum. This just happened way too fast for me to be comfortable with it. While I do know that its possible for wagons to spring up out of nowhere on scum, is just really rare, and the lack of a case makes me think that the slot is derpy (like half this BUCKING GAME) but is town.

[Rainbowdash]

I actually was reading Glass as townish for the first part of the cache before I got too frustrated that I wasnt able to read the way I wanted to and just gave up. OOTN really bugs me, but the early Glass stuff is what sorta has me wanting to move this wagon to somepony else, namely stark or lopsy. Again though do we have time is the question at hand.

Also if that post is a shot at me... if you dont understand what I am saying, just ask and I can calrify. Im not going to change my posting style, but my style is not too extreme. If you want me to heavy roleplay just give the queue and this can get really awesome.

[Rainbowdash]

ugh this game is going to be tough. Amrun is probably scum here with...



malthusis and... maybe IG? Not too sure on the last one but Amrun/Malthusis yes. OOTN isnt a bad play but im not as happy as I am there as I was last night. CSL I have this strong feeling that he is town but I cant do anything to stop what I set in motion at this point I think.

unvote
Vote Amrun

Yes it probably isnt going to do anything but it serves a purpose to show what im actually thinking here.

@mod

- What is deadline lynch rule?

[Rainbowdash]

The fun has been doubled.

This can be interesting; wagons being all shifty-ing, apparently have my own Scootaloo, AD set up to join us, v2v and lopsy are going to be most interesting though at this point. They need to give up their current votes about five pages ago.

[Rainbowdash]

Well... i don't think V2V would bus his buddy in this situation

There is NO way Amrun-v2v is a partnership to me. Not even v2v is that inattentive, standard occurance would need to have been breached for this to occur, and v2v doesnt strike me as inattentive enough or clever enough to do so.

[Rainbowdash]

Whosa whatta.... I'm not one of them smartponies...

Cannot understand... words... coming... from... you...

Can you translate to Engrish?

v2v had no clue that Amrun replaced kondi. I know that normally scum are far more intuned to what their partners are doing, who they are replaced by, etc. Its just something that is far more important to you as scum. Due to that, its unlikely that the two of them are both scum.

Either v2v can be paying so little attention that he did not realize his partner got replaced and was trying to attack Amrun for scumslipping that a partner was town, or he is being clever and "forgetting" because scum wouldnt do that to their partner. Simplest answer is that they are not both scum though.

Ooooh CSL back to! Is it on? Is it?



Please?

This is going to get awesome. I just know it.

[Rainbowdash]

No.

Cute. You think after doing nothing for the majority of the game you have significant say in what goes on.

I will humor you a bit though: Why not? Lets also here why CSL is scum.

[Rainbowdash]

Nothing to L-1 in a page...



Let me think about this before anypony does something rash. Im obviously not able to read gamestate at all in this and thats normally something im quite good at, so I may need to reevaluate some of my tells.

@OOTN - Explain your vote. Why Amrun over CSL?

[Rainbowdash]

Don't forget though, deadline is in a day and a half. Wagons do tend to go naught to kelvin when a no lynch is imminent.

So?

Neither of these wagons had any backing to it. I came in with DW vs OOTN wagons going a bit, and turned a large wagon on CSL, and now turned a DIFFERENT wagon on Amrun. When the ponies backing the wagons share this little overlap something just feels wrong. What I cant figure out is what is wrong.

Its just that it went from total rainbow (awesome) votecount to two large wagons in the span of my first 24 hours here. Both of which I created, both of which had little to no backing before that point. Its not natural, even with deadline.

I have an exam tomorrow, so nopony hammer until after then please.

[Rainbowdash]

@RD: I'm just trying to get a lynch here, getting a no-lynch on D1 isn't a good thing.

So you took CSL off L-1 to put Amrun on L-1 why then?

Also DW was at L-2 a few pages before I replaced in, got you and lucky wagons mixed up though

[Rainbowdash]

Because the support for the CSL wagon was obviously dissapearing. You and a few other people are already second guessing CSL being scum.

How does it "disappear" when you are the only one who moved off it?

If you had a choice is CSL or Amrun a better lynch and why?

[Rainbowdash]

@RD: It dissapears if the only people who support it are already on the wagon. It basically means the wagon will probably never get hammered.

What?

Its there. Because its there it cant have disappeared. I can see the wagon sitting at L-2. Most certaintly has not "disappeared", and given how much wagons are moving... not sure how you can pull the "its dead" card.

[Rainbowdash]

Im going to spend the next 24 or so hours thinking

unvote

to make sure nopony does something before I get done with that.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Amrun

Im going back to the kondi play of trying to force a 1v1 early on. I think thats not a town who has a PR move, but a VT or scum move. Yes kondi is probaly in the bottom 5% of skill on the site but I actually dont think I have seen PR-town do this. I have seen scum do it and fakeclaim a PR, and VT do it.

Im not jumping on the lucky wagon. If you want me to budge get that malthisus wagon going and I may jump.

[Rainbowdash]

Why? Why wouldn't he feel confident since he has a PR?

That seems like a pretty obvious kondi move to me.

Ive seen LLD, probably the worst player on the site, pull this move before and even SHE was smart enough to know not to do it as a PR. Besides

Today will be me VS Glass, and if one is town, the other will be lynched tomorrow.

That doesnt sound like kondi-PR to me, that sounds like kondi-VT or kondi-scum. Very best kondi-bad PR, which you claim is not true.

I'm not opposed to a malthusis wagon ... you first!

I move and im resigning your wagon. So im not moving unless it looks like it has a chance to go through.

[Rainbowdash]

That symbolizes me pushing you to claim.

Seriously if you are town not claiming ASAP will do one of the following

1) Make us no lynch (bad)
2) Cause us to quicklynch somepony who hasnt claimed
3) Panic deadline lynch CSL (who you think is town)
4) End up in your lynch (bad if you are town)

Or possibly something else I cant think of right now. It remains that the BEST case scenario is we get lucky with a quicklynch.

[Rainbowdash]

What type of results do you get

unvote
Vote malthisus

This day is going to suck I think. I have reason to believe that the claim is legit, going to talk to mod to see what I can wiegh in on this.

[Rainbowdash]

I'm not completely opposed to a malth lynch I guess.

Since?

[Rainbowdash]

I had him town for some reason, I'm too lazy to go back and look right now, will do so tomorrow.

No no no no

This isnt a "deal with it tomorrow" thing, its a deal with it now thing. At least where your vote is going.

[Rainbowdash]

Grrrr...time is not on our side, we just need to stop thinking and act.

36 hours when most of us have sleep + classes/work + sleep in that span is not that much

[Rainbowdash]

VOTE: IceGuy

I re-read overnight and decided I was wrong about Korlash. He's town; we just don't see eye to eye.

If you are going to claim results be explicit about it.

Basically claim.

Also ask the mod what your role name is.

[Rainbowdash]

Amrun I know you are around what is your full role name?

[Rainbowdash]

I want to sleep on this.

Amrun being called cop when I am not called a miller gives me twitchy tail all over about something not being right. This is added to by the pregame flavor which isnt just "cop" but has attached stuff.

[Rainbowdash]

From everything you've told us, RD, you are NOT a miller. You are some other will with a functionality similar to a miller.

Last night's flip was a simple, common role name, but good job ignoring that.

Like I said, I need to sleep on it.

Just feel that im missing something right now and really dont have enough time to throw at this game right now. May tomorrow though.

[Rainbowdash]

So DW and RD are the same slot, but had different claims?

What happened to me being scum because you were "kinda countering" me?

Also please - where are we "different claims"?

[Rainbowdash]

If I am a watcher, nopony targeted Amrun
If I am a tracker, I can confirm that Amrun targeted Korlash

If I am any other type of information role, it suggests/confirms that Lucky is not mafia aligned.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote OOTN

Im pretty slammed by a design project right now so im going to be a bit distance.

OOTN is scum just floating along not doing anything to scumhunt and just supporting whatever somepony else says. Amrun we can deal with later.

Me/CSL/Korlash are town

I want to say AD and lucky too, will be surprised if more than one scum in those ponies.

So Ice/Lopsy/OOTN/molia/Amrun/Stark is where I am at right now. Im not intereted in molia or Amrun lynches today. I could swing to Ice but I think he is more likely poor town instead of scum. Lopsy and Stark bug me a whole lot on gut, but OOTN is legit scummy.

[Rainbowdash]

If you want my input on the claim business, I think Amrun's claim is legit.

Great! So who is scum?

That's why I'm not really doing much today.

So what was all of yesterdays excuse then?

[Rainbowdash]

You all know I could get behind an Omnomnom wagon. Or lucky if it comes to that. I still think Am's claim is bogus but if it's impossible to hang her I can deal with it.

Im still torn on Amrun. I really hate kondis play, but her reaction to the CSL claim I like a whole lot.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok so im going to talk my way down through this a little

Korlash is town, double so for one of his recent posts which hit a favorite tell of mine
AD dances the line on this tell
CSL is probably town for the VT claim.

The biggest thing that Amrun has working for her right now to me is how she responded to CSL vanilla claim. Its a tell I love, I think she knows this, but the VT claim when being run up at deadline is strong, I think I actually got Amrun off the lynch in her first game here using it. Biggest qualms I have are kondis play, and the fact that her result claim was not instant.

I want to run with Korlash/CSL as town and Amrun/AD as very likely town.

If anypony has a major problem with Korlash or CSL town speak now or forever hold your peace.

Next tier is IceGuy. I think he is just really oblivious town who needs to just sheep somepony smart.

Yay half the game is town. Still like the OOTN lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

@RD, what's your lospy read?

I want to say scum but I have a difficult time backing it up when I go through isos

[Rainbowdash]

I dont like a lucky lynch.

I havent been able to find much about why that pony is obviously town, but gut has said it the entire game.

[Rainbowdash]

(Like if you guys agree to lynch me, then go ahead.)

Im town but I told you to lynch me. Lets go on with this lynch.

lynch luckyjt

Just start the wagon on me people will follow.

self-preservation

That word does not mean what I think you think it means.

[Rainbowdash]

I dont like a lucky lynch.

I havent been able to find much about why that pony is obviously town, but gut has said it the entire game.

... Why you gotta be so ruining things? :\

I just dont see it. Just nopony hammer lucky without me giving the go ahead since if I have a non track/watch investigative role it says lucky is probably not mafia.

Also why are you voting lucky if you still think Amrun is scum? Those two are aggressively not scum together.

[Rainbowdash]

Also why are you voting lucky if you still think Amrun is scum? Those two are aggressively not scum together.

I disagree but you're welcome to try and convince me otherwise.

Post crash lucky jumped right back on kondi. After that long of a break everything had slowed down and resuming (?) a hard bus is more unlikely since in a couple weeks off everypony had a chance to think about things deeper. Also Amrun has been pushing strongly enough for a lucky lynch since she showed up, im pretty sure both arent scum here, and I would not at all be shocked to see town-town.

[Rainbowdash]

@Stark - Explain your vote.

[Rainbowdash]

@OOTN - You are going to need to clarify at very least if this is information that suggests that Amrun is telling the truth about her action or her role, and if its indicative of her alignment.

I think I know how we do this though. Just need to hear clarification of OOTN.

[Rainbowdash]

Okay okay...

@Amrun - Have you checked to see if your sanity is confirmed? Does your role suggest anything sanity wise? Do you get guilty/not guilty results?

[Rainbowdash]

Ok here is what I think we do and it should work as long as Korlash is not investigative immune scum.

We lynch OOTN today, if he is telling the truth and is town (Which my gut says he is but bear with me) it clears Amrun, and that should clear Korlash. So by lynching OOTN we maybe hit scum, and do clear two town. I think CSL is still town, and AD is more likely town then not (slipping but still say town) so thats where I stand. If OOTN is town, I have three town reads, then probably town reads in lucky and AD. Scum essentially are forced to make their next three kills to end the game.

I want OOTN to fullclaim so we can check and see how "for sure" his information is, from there we should have scum dead and/or quite a few town clear.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote

Ponyfeathers

OOTN might actually just flat out be town.

I do think he still needs to full claim though.

[Rainbowdash]

Its standard for when somepony gets roleblocked to send either a message saying the action failed, or a "no result" response. If you got a "not mafia" response there is no way you got roleblocked.

[Rainbowdash]

Okay, now I'm not so sure that Amrun is telling the truth.

Fullclaim.

[Rainbowdash]

Maybe tomorrow I will understand what just went down.

[Rainbowdash]

Yall are doing a really good job of making a tipsy pony feel more drunk than she really is by confusing them half to death. Dont judge me. Its been a long day of

completing lateral bracing design

training for the Wonderbolts.

I could get behind OOTN and Amrun town though at this point, which makes Korlash town or GF but probably town. CSL is also probably town so almost forced win maybe? Awesome.

Im not going to be all... voting and stuff before I get another look at this tomorrow though.

[Rainbowdash]

Well it still makes little sense the next day so yay.

OOTN is still very likely town and a little bit moreso than Amrun thanks to what exactly happened I think, although both being town is most likely by quite a good gap.

Not intersted in Korlash, CSL, lucky or AD lynches.

Leaves Ice, molia, lopsy, stark.

I could get behind Ice at this point

Vote Ice

[Rainbowdash]

Not sure if I'm wrong on Amrun, or she's just good at bussing.

Can this get explanied a little more?

[Rainbowdash]

Not sure if I'm wrong on Amrun, or she's just good at bussing.

Can this get explanied a little more?

Lucky was suspect, but Amrun's attacks on him seemed genuine.

She wasnt attacking lucky at that point though.

You never answered why you suddenly dropped pushing my lynch despite how I apparently contradicted DW or something like that.

[Rainbowdash]

You never answered why you suddenly dropped pushing my lynch despite how I apparently contradicted DW or something like that.

Because it seemed less likely on re-read, and there were other, more promising targets.

Which at this point are?

[Rainbowdash]

L-1 claim time

[Rainbowdash]

VT.

You sorta-counterclaimed a miller as VT?

[Rainbowdash]

Sompony hammer.

C'mon you can be Thor pony



You know you want to.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Stark

Care to explain your action last night?

[Rainbowdash]

Also no quicklynching him

[Rainbowdash]

Ooh!

Also nopony post until Stark does please. And then not until I post (and I check in every 8 hours tops so no fear in long wait).

[Rainbowdash]

Actually nah, nevermind.

Lets just massclaim actually, I think with the amount of power out so far its time to see if we cant figure out exactly what this game looks like.

Would like Stark to start though.

[Rainbowdash]

Hillarious.

But we are massclaiming today, with everything being as odd as it seems and quite a few claimed/dead PRs, I think its time do go ahead and do such.

[Rainbowdash]

But we are massclaiming today, with everything being as odd as it seems and quite a few claimed/dead PRs, I think its time do go ahead and do such.

Yeah, no thanks.

As odd as it seems? Yesterday you had 'confirmed and excluded' half the town, yet today, nothing having changed, you think things are odd?

Yeah things are odd.

All scum in Stark/MoI/Lucky/CSL/RBAN with reading CSL and Lucky has heavy town DOES seem a bit too easy. Two cops, both apparently with confirmed sanity too? I get the feeling there has to be at least one maipulator since there have been no RBed claims. If we know exactly what we have, we should have a better idea what we are looking at in return and how many of them (tailer, framer, GF) we should be expecting.

When things are too good to be true, they normally are. Also early massclaim are awesome. Ive decimated scum a couple times pulling that one.

[Rainbowdash]

Why don't we all just forget about this massclaim idea until after iStark has claimed and we've reevaluated things?

Well lets put it this way, I may or may not have anything on Stark. If I did use any investigative role, it implement him heavily though. If we arent going to massclaim we should just play like normal, although I will continue to heavily suspect him and eventually push a case. But hey, I have my senior design project due Tuesday so a case may wait a bit if you actually expect me to go back and dredge up quotes.

Korlash continues to make himself obviously town though, if you are scum you are accidently stumbling on just about every single one of my "is town" checklist moves here. Thats pretty rare given the wide variety of them.

[Rainbowdash]

Well with that claim...

unvote

I actually want a massclaim because this is WAY too much power it seems.

Come on, two cops, tracker, voyer... all in a setup that scum have no RBer? I think with a full massclaim its pretty easy to center on the chance of all claims being valid which we could quickly pull into many semi-clears using standard tracker no action theories.

[Rainbowdash]

@ Rainbow: Why is that 'way too much power'? And why did you ignore your own role when 'counting' it out?

Miller aspect of my role is a bit of a detrement depending on how its played, but double cop + tracker has me thinking becaue tracker is fun as hay as quite a few dont notice how powerful it actually can be.

Stop me when you disagree with this pattern

1) 3 scum is a safe assumption
2) At least one mafia will have an active role
3) Scum will rarely (if even allowed) submit a kill and an action

Using this, a "no result" means in an average game, there is only one pony per night that will return that as scum. If the game is excessively PR heavy there may be two active roles (or one passive) which substantiates this theory since its rarer for a GF to submit a kill over a goon by and large.

If we get no more claims, with the addition of my role, all roles are probably true although it may be argueable that Stark is town, tracker is next to confirmed though as far as I am concerned and I side heavily with town even if I wouldnt have tracked OOTN night one.

Korlash is town outside of a tailor as well most likely, and tailor is a super rare role.

So yeah, I want a massclaim to see how much we can break this game down, because if it ends up going a certain direction we can treat four as pseudo-clear at this point.

[Rainbowdash]

Using this, a "no result" means in an average game, there is only one pony per night that will return that as scum. If the game is excessively PR heavy there may be two active roles (or one passive) which substantiates this theory since its rarer for a GF to submit a kill over a goon by and large.

Our 'tracker' has all ready claimed, so a mass claim will provide no new results in which to get 'no results' so a mass claim for this intent is pointless.

Tracker tracks a vanilla claim. Only reason im not 100% convinced stark is town is that he never tracked me.

-with iStark you were 'so sure' you had something you not only partially revealed yourself, but actually seemed to fear he would be 'quicklynched' yet before he could even respond you abandoned it and called for a mass claim... wtf? How can you go from 'I think I have something' to 'I have nothing, let's massclaim' without even giving your first action time to pan out?

There is a sorta chance that I just called out somepony who was in my scum pool (stark/rban/lopsy) about a night action with hope of getting lucky enough to have hit scum who did something and force a scramble.

-We have two claims and two flips, none of which seem like 'weird' roles. Yet you claim to be a role, that is also a miller. Why combine the two roles? We could easily have both your role, and a miller, yet for some reason the mod seemed to deem it necessary to combine your role with a second ability.

First, I actually never have said I have an active ability on top of my miller aspect. I simply have been saying I may have an active ability on top of my miller action. Note this response is why you are obviously town in all of this, but all I am saying that is 100% concrete is that my role name does not have "miller" appear anywhere in it.

I could get behind a lynch of rban at this point though. I just think a massclaim so we can put the right amount of weight behind the current claims is the best thing we can do at this point. Really we have proven scum has no RBer at this point, so we still get at least one track/cop out of all of this.

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah I think im just going to come out and say it also with the reasoning of why Korlash is town from all of this (and probably Stark as well).

Delta actually fully claimed my role back before the crash. It technically is just a miller, no additional actions, but the role name is "Mistrusted Vanilla Townie". Thats why I got really suspect of the claims that were happening because they didnt seem to match up with my role, and the pregame flavor death.

This also helps suggest both Korlash and Stark town because of their response to me doing what I did. My role had been claimed by Delta in full, and it would be expected that scum actually realized this. I think it would have been mentioned in a scum QT that I am just a miller if any scum saw what happened, so the reactions from these two would have been quite different. Stark is not as strong of a tell as Korlash, because lets face it, Stark is a tracker, but I think it comes out to a town tell regardless.

We have what... nine alive with Korlash-OOTN-Stark all almost for sure town and AD and MoI as likely town? With the ammount of probable clears out there, finishing up extracting as much information as possible is probably the right move here.

[Rainbowdash]

Apologies that I am not very invested in this game. I fully expected to be dead this morning. Since I lived it would appear I was roleblocked. That means that I will need to invest a little more into this game than I thought I needed to, and hopefully find the bastard who roleblocked me.

heh

Sure.

Full claim time.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote rban

Also V/LA through Tuesday

[Rainbowdash]

Can I request we dont lynch until at least Tuesday? I have a defense of my final design project I need to graduate Saturday, and a couple other bigger things that are going to prevent me from getting enough time to read through this as much as I need to after that flip.

Can somepony tabulate all results though so far by everypony who has claimed each night?

[Rainbowdash]

So simple way to solve this is...

1) We lynch Stark
2) If he is town, we lynch MoI

Correct?

Correct.

Given that MoI (to be scum) would have had to hard bus Stark (or fake guilty) out of nowhere... Stark is probably scum-tracker. Probably with GF-AD.

OOTN being alive suggests a investigation tamperer too... scum are obviously not afraid of him at this point as they just opted to kill Korlash over the claimed tracker (Stark) the claimed cop (OOTN) and the claimed something (MoI). As im thinking about it come on... tracker AND motion sensor as town?

Pffft...



Oh that is too rich

Come on... How does ANYTHING balance against

Cop-Cop-Tracker-Motion Sensor-Voyer?

You would need something like GF/Tailer/Ninja combo for last two roles, even then its ehhhh

Dump tracker to scum and throw in tailor and you may be closer to balanced.

Once somepony tabulates all actions you can lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

@AD - Having OOTN target me is stupid because im going to investigate as scum. Are you trying to say that I am GF who claimed miller or something?

One of MoI and Stark are scum given the fact that MoI got "tracked" to Korlash while he claimed to do something else. For them to both be town... all scum in OOTN, AD and Lucky with one being a redirector and if OOTN is town AD being GF. Its just so amazingly reaching since scum MUST have a redirector along with quite a few other things.

Vote Stark

Im fine with this happening

Still vagely V/LA for about a week.

[Rainbowdash]

O yeah, if Istark flips mafia goon, then GF almost assuredly exists => RD is by far the best cop-choice.

Pfft..

So... Stark-goon means that I am a GF... who fakeclaimed miller... in a goon-goon-GF setup?

I am going to investigate as scum, so I am the worst possible investigation unless you are really going to make the case that I am a GF. You cant be making the "OOTN insane" arguement since both Amrun and him got the same result on confirmed town N1, OOTN if he is town, is a sane cop. Period.

[Rainbowdash]

*waits for MoI result*

[Rainbowdash]

You read the flavor?

Egghead.

[Rainbowdash]

Heh

I tend to only read if its a theme I joined purely for the flavor. Then again im the pony whos one theme game had more flavor then every other game they had ran over the last four years.

Back to the point though, im thinking massclaim might need to happen before the MoI clam. Its basically if we all think MoI is town, its the right play to massclaim first.

Really im confused as buck at the kill. Only role that is "safe" from MoI would be a ninja type role, I guess it could suggest lucky/CSL scum, but even then MoI is going to be just as big of a threat to them as OOTN.

[Rainbowdash]

Actually yeah, I think we massclaim before MoI claims.

@Lucky - Start, popcorn to CSL or AD.

[Rainbowdash]

I also already claimed Mistrusted Vanilla Townie

AD is up.

[Rainbowdash]

How are you so sure, I dont think Feirei has posted anything for a while now. How do you know this? And I also dont trust MOI but it would have been very risky for Moi to have sacrificed 2 scum buddies.

Nah he is right abou CSL being town here. The fact that mollia and stark both jumped on him hard, the VT tell, the asking to be lynched over Amrun. The pony is useless, but I would put town over MoI even.

[Rainbowdash]

yay MoI actually made the right pick for a target

Almost wish he didnt as the cop death points away from AD to start, but hey, CSL already is exceedingly likely town for what happened D1 and the "no action" night.

If CSL was a GF he would have killed MoI instead of OOTN, as only way he got in trouble was if Lucky got checked meaning it WIFOMed to him or a GF already existing while MoI could have flat out busted him. Plus really, CSL to have no nowhere means it basically needs to tracker-ninja-goon with the counter role (ninja) being aimed at the non copied town role.

Vote Lucky

I really dont think its going to be MoI, and he is the only other one it possibly could be outside of overblown powerful scum role.

[Rainbowdash]

If im going to get lynched, let me put together exactly who I want to get lynched tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

@MoI - Do you believe that I am a goon or something else?

unvote

[Rainbowdash]

Awesome, MoI is on... lets get a back and forth going.

I have a good half hour here.

[Rainbowdash]

MOD – I’ll be LA from today at 4:30pm EDT until Monday AM for my usual weekend family duties.

If im going to get lynched, let me put together exactly who I want to get lynched tomorrow.

Why is this your reaction when exactly zero votes are on you IIRC?

Because you/AD/lucky are already essentially voting me. Im not derpy - I can read intentions.

@MoI - Do you believe that I am a goon or something else?

unvote

I think you are clearly not a Goon. That should be pretty clear as evidenced by the flips. Once I finish my re-reads I will place my vote.

[/quote]

Ok so your arguement is going to be that Delta-PR claimed a complicated miller role, followed by both teammates (Mist and Stark) trying to get him lynched for it. After that I forced my parter to come out in a claim after there already was two cop and voyeur claims. Finally I actually killed a cop over you, where as scum all I needed to do was hold back, kill you, lynch whatever of OOTN didnt investigate, kill him and then im in a F3 with AD and whatever of lucky/CSL didnt get investigated.

Seriously im not derpy. If I was scum you were the only legitimate threat to me. Leaving OOTN alive likely got whoever didnt get investigated lynched, followed by killing anypony leaving it open to GF threats in AD, OOTN fakeclaiming, or last one being scum.

Also - if you didn’t notice I had a few questions to you in that post. Please answer them.

Cop and gunsmith were to cover two different bases at once. In an investigative heavy game, gunsmith make sense to add false positives.

Out of curiosity, you ignore all flipped scum to me interactions. Why?

[Rainbowdash]

Ugh, I think it actually is MoI.

[Rainbowdash]

In the event that OOTN came in with a not mafia result on Lucky, yes I think CSL may have been lynchable. It would have been difficult but that door would have been cracked open a bit.

MoI scum is rough to deal with, the only way I have caught him in the past is to think like scum from his shoes. I have caught him once as scum simply going through things thinking "what would I do in this situation as scum?" and his actions matched up with what my moves would be.

Play it from the day MoI came into the game from his shoes. Stark claiming MoI did nothing was really odd, its obvious that Stark had no need to lie, so he had three things he could have tried to do as scum

1) Tell the truth about his target
2) Lie and say what he knew a partner did
3) Gamble on what town did

Lets say he did something completely different though, like lied about a partners action. If he did this, MoI had to counter him as if MoI got lynched first, it means that Stark was proven to be lying. Im not sure if that result was planned or not, but if it wasnt, I would have done the EXACT same thing that MoI did there. I think this was entirely not planned since Stark seemed to be caught off guard by my targeting him.

The cop death too is a "huh?" one too and is where im a little confused and really is the only reason I am thinking it MAY be Lucky. Really though it makes zero sense for anypony to have died but MoI. As scum it was 100% worth the risk for lucky/CSL to have killed MoI in hopes that the other got investigated followed by OOTN kill with GF fears.

Plus again, we are top heavy power wise at cop/cop/voyuer/motion sensor/miller vs tracker/goon/?. Two weak info roles just feels a bit off too, but thats a lesser point. For this to balance with MoI-town, Lucky would have to be something strong (which makes no sense in his self-sacrafice mode). Putting MoI-scum either as weak role (and maybe even goon) balances.

Onto Lopsy though, she actually never interacted with dead scum much, apart from complaining about MB inactivity. There is a vote on Stark, which quickly gets pulled off and the read on him switches to newb-town. In the same post she is very much on the fence about MB, showing some distaste but just asking for more from her.

Vote MoI

If you lynch me today just lynch him tomorrow. MoI will "follow" CSL tonight if I get lynched, since otherwise im pretty sure he would come up with a "went nowhere" and try and give ninja fears.

@MoI/AD/Lucky - I want 100% from you that you will not vote CSL if I get lynched today. Its Lucky or MoI, and I want MoI lynched since he has played almost exactly like I would expect him to play as scum at more critical junctures of the game.

[Rainbowdash]

@RD like what I said if MOI is scum he has won the game. There is no way we can lynch him because we risk lynching an important town power role. ANd if he is scum he will frame someone tomorrow.

First "Oh come on" - If we went by this theory always we wouldnt have even lynched Stark. Scum will fakeclaim at times.

Second "Oh come on" - I really dont think Lucky is scum with all of this because he would need to be a strong PR (really strong) who is self-sacraficial and doesnt seem to understand that he is stopping anything productive from happening in endgame if he is scum.

Its MoI. I am happy (well not "happy" but content) being lynched if you will just lynch him tomorrow, I just dont want Lucky throwing the game with a "herpa derpa he claimed a PR" move.

After the Stark claim it was textbook correct move from MoI-scum to make that counter.

[Rainbowdash]

You (again) do realize that MoI busted the already critically wounded rban claim, and as I said it was the correct play for him to bust the Stark claim right? I think he is either going to be a GF here, since that would probably about balance vs two cops/voyuer/miller. Heck I can even see saying making him a goon sorta balances it.

If im scum how does this balance? That question goes for AD and MoI too.

[Rainbowdash]

MoI is totally scum here, but im in a bad position where I know that I basically need to be the lynch, so as long as I can make sure that he is getting lynched tomorrow im fine making that move to take him down.

Your reasoning for the fake track is derpy too... you are saying that Stark correctly guessed that OOTN was an active PR when he breadcrumbed so was willing to risk a fake claim on that? No way in hay thats true. His results except maybe for yours are entirely true. Really what possibly is his motivation to fake a result on town? If he was worried about clearing town through WIFOM of "why target them" he would fake a result on a partner. Which I think he did.

Also yes. I had both scum at null to lean scum for a majority of the game. Im not going to say I had good scum reads at all, and Stark threw me for a loop when he claimed tracker since he was obviously a tracker. I figured I just got unlucky with a gambit and hit a town PR.

Cop/Cop/Voyure/Miller vs Tracker/Goon/[Goon/GF] is about right to me. I know its gaming the mod, but do you really think that in a setup with two sane cops there is no miller or GF? And instead there is a ninja that counters a grand total of one town PR?

Seriously, if I get for sure confirmation from AD. Lucky and CSL that they will vote you im totally fine being lynched here. Delta screwed up how to play miller horribly, and im left holding the pieces of his play with reads that left both scum near the middle of the road. I know you say it doesnt match meta, but have you ever seen me close to being lynched as town?

I also want a "yes I will follow CSL" from you since I have not gotten that one yet.

Also you make more sense than anypony to have killed OOTN. That one I dont see how you can even start to ignore. I know you arent derpy enough to seriously believe if you are town either that I let you live as scum. There is a reason I basically never lose as scum, and part is I know how to STOP anypony from being cleared. I kill you and GF speculation of AD opens up since he was not that great looking, and I could probably have taken him down 1v1 if needed, and with luck OOTN burned a cop on me or CSL leaving Lucky as the easy first lynch, or if not GF speculation still comes into play.

OOTN was basically confirmed through mod messing up, but lack of a GF flip makes you the bigger threat, unless again you are going to argue that a ninja is the counter to four investigative town PRs, only one of which can be countered by ninja.

[Rainbowdash]

I will say that I think Istark did track Om night 1. Post 608 is not divorced from Om's claim imo. Istark said he was 'looking for something', he said 'do you have anything to say?' Which unless someone can correct me, feels like he wanted Om to claim his role + action explicitly last night. Possibly to say something like 'oh hey, I is tracker, and Om is telling the truth, town cred get!'

Eyup. Im going to guess that Stark just went with a safe "partner did X" claim instead of making a wild guess about what town did. There was zero motivation for him to lie about a claim really, but if he wanted to why risk something that could be busted?

Its MoI, it took me a bit to realize it but I think the best way for me to catch MoI-scum is to put myself in his hooves and see if it matches up with what I see as correct scum play. Taking Stark down gave him a ton of town cred and im thinking made him think he wouldnt get challenged until F3 where he can go heads up against Lucky or Me (and im sure he hoped CSL but thats something im not letting happen).

Balance still too with MoI trying to say im a ninja, all it counters is his "role", and is a hinderance against what v2v claimed. Im thinking MoI is either goon or GF to wrap this up, more likely GF since scum needs something to counter two cops.

[Rainbowdash]

If you self-vote I’ll stop re-reading and not put up a fight tomorrow assuming I survive to then.

Im never going to self-vote, so thats out. Even if I would its not like you would ever roll over and die tomorrow, neither of us are that kind of pony.

Oh, so he breadcrumbed as scum in a way that he might come back to it if a claim occurred and only claim said breadcrumb after OOTN claimed and you think my reasoning is ‘derpy’. Your rhetoric here does not suit you Rainbow.

Your logic is faulty. He’s a scum Tracker crumbing and being absolutely careful with his actions expect for when he claimed on me. And as you said before his reaction is real so he was ‘taken by surprise’ but instead of just bussing Rban and keeping quiet I double-bussed for the hell of it.

He tracked OOTN night one. Zero way he didnt outside of him planning to claim VT because it busts his true fakeclaim. Why did he lie about you though? He tracked other town (who?) and just randomly decided to claim a went nowhere result on you instead? The move was horrible, I will give that point up, but I dont think he tracks town and lies about you going nowhere if you are also town. It makes the most sense for you to be the one that submitted the kill or something and figured it would make him suspect if two non-active scum PRs flip.

Also yes. I had both scum at null to lean scum for a majority of the game. Im not going to say I had good scum reads at all, and

Stark threw me for a loop when he claimed tracker since he was obviously a tracker. I figured I just got unlucky with a gambit and hit a town PR.

[

And the bolded undermines your ‘sudden revelantion’ stance. You are retrofitting your opinion to support your conclusion. If you are telling me you, as Town, in the moment thought that he as scum who got caught in a gambit but only when I pointed out how your play has been scummy suddenly I’m obv-scum then no, I don’t buy it.

This has nothing to do with you, this is why I was thinking Stark was town and my move hit a town PR instead of hitting scum.

Cop/Cop/Voyure/Miller vs Tracker/Goon/[Goon/GF] is about right to me. I know its gaming the mod, but do you really think that in a setup with two sane cops there is no miller or GF? And instead there is a ninja that counters a grand total of one town PR?

I love this. Ninja only counters one powerrole. Except I’m Town so I know it’s Cop/Cop/Voyuer/Follower versus Goon / Tracker / ???? and Ninja which neutralizes half the Town powerroles makes absolute sense.

You may keep Appealing to Repetition on this ‘Ninja makes no sense’ argument but that doesn’t mean it’s true.

Ninja beats your claim, it tells a voyure that there is a ninja. So it counters one role, has nothing to do with two, and is identified as existin by the fourth if you are town. Biggest thing it counters? The dead scum role.

Also you make more sense than anypony to have killed OOTN. That one I dont see how you can even start to ignore. I know you arent derpy enough to seriously believe if you are town either that I let you live as scum. There is a reason I basically never lose as scum, and part is I know how to STOP anypony from being cleared. I kill you and GF speculation of AD opens up since he was not that great looking, and I could probably have taken him down 1v1 if needed, and with luck OOTN burned a cop on me or CSL leaving Lucky as the easy first lynch, or if not GF speculation still comes into play.

And here you once again make no sense.

You can’t give my ONE reason why I as any of the scum you are calling me (either Goon or Godfather) would kill OOTN given that I as scum have to strongly believe I’m not getting scanned for all the reasons you are making (that I was in a strong Town position). You can’t give me one.

OOTN was close to confirmed town. Thats why. He is going to next to remove somepony (probably Lucky) from the easy lynch pool too. Its not that you are afraid of being caught by a cop, its that you are afraid of what PoE will do. You and I both know that keeping everypony as lynchable is one of the hardest and most essential things to pull off as scum, and letting OOTN live makes it harder to do such. OOTN live, Lucky becomes a hard lynch and then what? You, me, Lucky all are getting reexamined.

You further pretend I’m too dangerous for you as scum to make me live and then turn around in the same post and talk about how you ‘caught’ me before. If I was scum I’d have taken you out in a heartbeat if that was the case.

No you wouldnt have. Just about everypony is somewhat unsure of me and I showed next to no suspicion of you.

OOTN was basically confirmed through mod messing up, but lack of a GF flip makes you the bigger threat, unless again you are going to argue that a ninja is the counter to four investigative town PRs, only one of which can be countered by ninja.

Look it’s the broken record again. You argue a Godfather makes perfect sense a Ninja doesn’t based on statistics that are skewed by the false assumption I am not Town. A Ninja and Godfather are equally potent in a Two Cop / Two Tracker-Watcher style game.

Voyuer and Follower are roles that exist purely to bust up fakeclaims. Its hard to definatively have caught scum just through a result from one.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote

I can at least wait and hear things out. There is no rush here.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok im just going to talk some stuff out.

I want to think that MoI is scum because some of this just makes sense from him, and the result from Stark that was wrong on MoI is just so bucking bizzare that im not sure where to go next. I have no clue why scum would ever lie about that result. Ever. Even less reason why they would lie about it on a random townie.

Why did OOTN die is another wierd thing. There was the "what?" Korlash death in between the two cops going down, which would make me think that scum thought Korlash was a PR due to his response to my call for massclaim. Why not kill the second cop though? That points more to a GF, but again why did OOTN die before MoI in that case? Korlash kill is so horrible though, I almost have a hard time MoI actually makes that kill outside of him being a GF and therefore not threatened by him at all.

Lucky and Lopsy both make a decen amount of sense as partners to dead scum as well. Lopsy did a little push on Stark but backed off that wagon pretty quickly and shifted him to town, while both dead scum mostly ignored Lucky or called him town.

So while I actually think that MoI is scum from what has happened, im almost to the point where I think he is good enough to not have made a couple of foalish mistakes in his play (such as Korlash kill) outside of him being a GF, where Korlash probtown through clear and maybe PR would have been an inviting kill.

This play from him sorta reminds me of last time I saw him as scum too in a F3... so im not overly sure either way of what is going on. This last Lucky vote seems way out of place though, so im going to take some more time to think about stuff.

[Rainbowdash]

Would cop-cop-voyeur be considered high or low power? would cop-cop-voyeur-follower be considered high or low power?

would goon-goon-tracker be low/high scum power? [GF or ninja]--goon--tracker?

medium high, high, normal, medium high (as GF/ninja are very setup dependant for how strong they are)

Also its not CSL. If it is game is already over so im not even going to consider it an option.

Vote MoI

I really cant see me coming off this today. Ive been thinking about it but I really think it just makes the most sense over a somewhat suicidal last scum.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote

Fine. I will look again, but I keep coming to more or less the same conclusions here. The only reason I at all think Lucky can be scum here is the Korlash kill is just way more out of left field then I would expect and I dont see MoI making that kill outside of being a GF who had a PR read on him.

[Rainbowdash]

@MoI - At least answer me this: Why does stark completely make up a result on town instead of giving a truthful result? It really just reads like a bit too much of a risk to me.

Also please, goon-goon-tracker is weak? Thats average at worst. I would take tracker over RBer just about anything without second thought, and goon-goon-X is commonplace.

Also again, ninja doesnt beat voyeur, ninja to voyeur says "Hey there is a ninja in the setup" and thats it. Thats ninja getting half beat to start by a town role. It counters one role, I will be floored beyond reason if the last scum role is anything but GF or goon.

Im just going to pony up. I really dont think its Lucky here, the "please vote me, docs on Amrun" just really doesnt fit into what I would expect to see from scum at that juncure.

Also

@MoI - Believe me or not, but if I was scum there is zero way you would have lived. Even if I was a ninja, taking you down basically just made it all "what about a GF" with AD and Lucky alive and me having already claimed miller so no fear from a cop. Do you really think that would have been a difficult win at all for me?

Vote MoI

In the even a no lynch happens for whatever reason (time wise) MoI is following Lucky since it prevents a kill without making it 1v1 no matter who is scum.

[Rainbowdash]

Being brutally honest, one of the bigger reasons that I like a MoI lynch over a Lucky lynch today is that I feel I stand a far better chance being able to take Lucky down in F3 than MoI if im wrong about this. Yes I know MoI is going to basically just point at this jumping up and down, but to put it simply I think it gives the best winning chances in the long run.

I just keep thinkig that most of what MoI has done matches up to what I would have done as scum, particularly as a GF. The snap back on Stark*, the clearing of AD, the push on me before lucky.

*Because it doesnt seem like MoI gets/admits to getting it: If Stark got cleared and MoI got lynched at any point, it would have been odd for Stark unless MoI is a ninja because why would dead scum that make the most sense to send in the kill have not? It makes sense for whatever scum is left to have sent in the kill unless the mod is odd and allows double actions, which given the response of Stark to me I dont think happened. Either way, something like goon-GF-X where Stark is claiming "X sent the kill" sounds awkward since X probably needs to be an active role for balance to be achieved.

That and I really dont believe that any scum lets MoI live over a cop but MoI. The last scum killed Korlash over both of them, so were obviously hunting for a different PR. MoI again makes the most sense to be hunting for a different town PR, since he isnt one, and if is a GF is not at all threatened by OOTN result wise.

[Rainbowdash]

RD, ya I detected that survival instinct throughout the day, I can't fault you for it, it's just slightly selfish if you know what I mean.

I dont like getting lynched, and actually havent yet. If you think this is bad you should see me if I come close to getting lynched as scum (havent in a normal mechanic game - in over four years)

I do still think that MoI is more likely scum though, the fact that if I am wrong I still think town win chances are around is just another tiebreaker for me here. MoI is probably lying if he says he isnt playing with the same thoughts in mind a bit here too.

[Rainbowdash]

@AD - Thats kinda terminology stuff to an extent. The interactions from Lopsy in that post to MB and Stark both look like scum-scum to me too.

@MoI - Just incase something goes wrong and there is a no lynch, you are "following" Lucky in that case. Im convinced last scum is more likely GF than ninja, so it either clears me or cements a 1v1 that has scum.

[Rainbowdash]

yay

Was a little nervous there near the end though have to admit.

Good try with survivor thing, but it was almost for sure fake given your early play, may have drawn the kill to CSL instead, but im doubting it would have.

[Rainbowdash]

I would have totally believed a Dan survivor. He wasn't playing completely to the town meta I know and love, which meant that the innocent on him was the only thing keeping me from lynching his ass.

He played too aggressively and pushed way too much stuff to be a survivor who wants to stay off the "possible threat" radar of scum. Only time survivor should bust out of a lurky shell is right about near endgame (like AD claimed to). Think I won a game in the long long ago with a survivor claim as scum doing that.

Funny part about balance - it wasnt THAT unbalanced in the end. Im not sure how you get cop/miller/voyuer is balanced against goon/tracker/RC. The second Cop actually made it more or less balananced, even though the "accidental confirmations" pushed it back the other way a bit.

[Rainbowdash]

@VM - I can also change the title to (over) or update anything else in the OP you want with green name powers. Just didnt feel right offering to be doing anything like that during the game for some reason.

[Rainbowdash]

Just make it say "Town win!" in the parenthesis, if you would. Thanks!

Done.

For mod stuff: Answering anything in thread tends to be bad, as does heavy flavor in results. The more you give than just the result, the more the players are going to start gaming the mod for what correct results actually look like. Getting involved in the thread just allows for players to start getting a read off the mod answers almost.

I tend to not say anything in thread except for common knowledge questions about deadline, votecount, etc as it *could* somehow influence a read.

[Rainbowdash]

The proper decision would have been to force-replace Amrun and give her replacement the VT role PM.

Actually yeah. This is right plan of action when there is that critical of a mod error really.

Even though I do think that cop/voyeur/miller is only balanced against goon/goon/RC or goon/goon/tracker.

Maybe if the mod wanted both PRs cop/deputy/voyuer/miller would have been more up the alley of correct setup. With no second cop this was definantly scum slanted, with the second cop medium town slanted.

[Rainbowdash]

No scum QT?

Bleh.

[Rainbowdash]

Did the Miller claim on D1?

My conclusion: more scum need to start fakeclaiming Miller D1.

Yeah miller claimed which I didnt like since I think miller should NOT claim miller but thats a different thing entirely. I think dropping RC for GF with the second cop blanaced it better because it gave some sort of a defense against really bad luck with cops to scum. While chance of them running over the game was low, it could have happened.

Also its probably a fair point from me to say im not sure exactly how the cops got confirmed. Just seemd like everypony thought they did so I just let it go since if they were it was just going to make them all that much harder for scum to get away dealing with.

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah miller claimed which I didnt like since I think miller should NOT claim miller but thats a different thing entirely.

Why?

I wouldnt because I tend not to be investigated ever. I seriously think its five max in over four years of playing, and I think really only around three times. I do draw a whole lot of NKs though, so getting NKed as miller is good... so I dont claim it. Last time I was miller I actually caught scum fakeclaiming because I was a miller and they claimed something that contradicted my flavor heavily.

Im an odd theory supporter for the most part. Think if you rarely get investigated its best to not claim miller, and im one of those that says vig should never shoot.

[Rainbowdash]

Then you're not arguing miller claiming as a general rule, but as a personal trait... That would confuse a lot of people. Was a bit unfortunate replacing into that slot I suppose.

More often than not I think its a good thing to do, and I would encourage not claiming from both ends of the "often lynched" spectrum since they seem to be least likely (or at least should be) to be investigated. No pony really tend to check the common town read, or the VI as a cop. Usually hit the middle of the road player who benifits from claiming, and even then I wouldnt fault miller for not claiming miller. All my experiences of not claiming or delaying claiming have worked very well.