Mini 1310: I Got My Eye On You Mafia (Game Over!)

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hello all. I'm replacing Lopsy.

I'm still reading up through the thread trying to decypher some slots given the haphazard information being scattered around the thread. I'll be posting my reads and thoughts catch-up in the next 48 hours or so.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be LA from 4:30pm EST today until Monday AM for my usual weekend family duties.

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I’m making my initial pass at a read-through focusing on the arguments / posts of living players. I’ll be reviewing thoughts of the dead at a later date. I think I’ve been able to piece together the chain of who replaced who at this stage.

Korlash (Otto), Rainbowdash (Delta), Om of the Nom(Glass), iStark, RBAN28 , Feirei (CSL), ActionDan, luckyjt

Initial scum-dar ding hits on iStark’s Lynch the claimed Miller as it’s better safe than sorry. This set-up, at least the fact that it was advertised as Investigation role heavy, is exactly where I would expect to find a Miller.

Delta’s more likely Town for twigging to that very same logic even if he is the particular subject of Stark’s scrutiny.

Glass’s suggestion that everyone scan their top Town reads strikes me as a good way to waste investigational power and is a bit suspect. I understand sanity testing as a theory (although the flips so far don’t support that this is completely a disguiessed Dethy) but you don’t choose the ‘Most Town’ play as a target because you aren’t going to want to figure out sanities by lynching them if they aren’t Nightkilled.

Luckyjt dings scumdar in Post 94 for making a Faux Town observation (engagement between players is what’s needed) and attacking someone else while behaving in a similar manner (laying back and doing zilch).

@Rainbow – confirm or deny that what Delta claimed Post 101 here is accurate as far as being directly informed that you would turn up as a ‘Mafia Goon’ if investigated.

ActionDan quite possibly buddying to Korlash in Post 116.

iStark has been on a streak of active-lurking / non-scum hunting in my read, culminiating with Post 119. Look at it again – he says nothing about anyone’s alignment but feeds into the conflict between Lucky, Glass, Kondi and VV (Town).

On the flip side of that accusation Korlash’s point about Lucky really not moving forward with his scum ‘reads’ as shown in post 124 is accurate to my read at this stage.

As of the end of Page 5 iStark would be move vote with Lucky as my second tier suspect.

More later …

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well having read over the thread via phone over the last 36 hours or so I’m going to address today’s posting as opposed to concentrating on catching up in this post.

Well iStark is scum. I did take an action last Night so his Tracker result on me is bogus.

Claim - Town Follower

I followed Rban yesterday and he took no action. So his "I bodyguarded Amrun' is also a lie. Lopsy didn't take any action Night 1 because he's a flake apparently.

VOTE: Rban

That should be L-1.

iStark can hang tomorrow as there is no way we have both a Follower and Tracker as Town in this set-up.

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Post 825 by Lucky strikes me as coming from frustrated scum. When I get around to re-reading I will be looking at his interactions with iStark and Rban.

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I actually want a massclaim because this is WAY too much power it seems.

Yes, I think a mass-claim at this stage is very Pro-Town.

Korlash is town outside of a tailor as well most likely, and tailor is a super rare role.

Um why isn’t a Godfather something you consider as a possibility for Korlash being scum who turned up Town to a Cop investigation? Am I missing something in my re-read.

I think odds of Korlash being scum are slim but unless we get a Godfather flip from Rban or iStark I’m not ruling it out.

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One thing you need to know now is that I'm basically confirmed town, and so is Korlash and AD (I got Not Guilty on him).

I ISOed the thread to see how you came confirmed Town and want your input on the following –

Your premise is that the Mod confirmed both yourselves and Amrun as Town via posting inappropriately in thread and that confirms at least one more player (Korlash) and the game was not stopped at that point?

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@ Magna: With two claimed and "mod confirmed" cops in the open I find it funny you hid your replacing in... lolololol.... You always make me laugh...

Yeah I asked for anonymity before I read Post 1 in the thread. I’ve seen too many Town slots killed for an active player replacing a slug. In hindsight it is pretty funny.

@ Rainbow: Why is that 'way too much power'? And why did you ignore your own role when 'counting' it out?

My role and the Voyeur role both are Miller neutral. And the ‘too much Power’ thing should be really apparent now.

Our 'tracker' has all ready claimed, so a mass claim will provide no new results in which to get 'no results' so a mass claim for this intent is pointless.

No, as evidenced above.

Exactly, so why massclaim? Why not just have Lopsy claim? Sorry, MOI... And why would he track you? Wait... let him answer me first... I want to know why he tracked the others first... Come back to this later...

1. Why are you apologizing to me? I think pretty much everyone else has claimed at this juncture.
2. Given that Amrun died last night I think the odds are minimal that we have a Town protective role so we aren’t gaining anything IMO from not getting all claims out on the table.

[MagnaofIllusion]

A quick note on set-up speculation -

I myself upon receiving my Role PM expected that scum has to have either a Godfather or Ninja style role (to foil the straight Cop investigations / the Voyeur and Followers respectively)and an information role (to keep a mass-claim of investigative roles from busting the set-up) at the minimum. So I don't expect to see a Tailor in the set-up as that's very weak defense against the Voyeur and Follower.

Keep this in mind towards the end of the game if it comes down to lynching people who are 'clear'.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Not to curb your style MOI, but Rban did claim to be roleblocked so if he's telling the truth, then it's possible you may not have seen him go anywhere. Clearly though, you should think Istark is the lair here and there is no excuse for that, so why vote Rban?

If we are lynching anyone, it's gonna be Istark (besides we should lynch the scum that has an active power first anyway)

VOTE: Istark

Well he claimed to be roleblocked. Here's the question of the Day - why would scum have specifically rolelblocked Rban over either of the claimed Cops? Unless I missed him claiming a protective role between page 5 and the current day's posting I can't see any reason for scum to have randomly targetted someone who hadn't claimed. Unless of course your premise is that Om isn't a Town Cop and thus wasn't in jeapordy. Is that your line of thinking?

As to voting Rban over iStark I think it is pretty clear they are both lying so I'll vote either. Rban had 3 votes. iStark had zero. No reason to try to start a new wagon on scum when one already exists.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: iStark

I think we probably should let Feirei actually post some content today before hanging iScum.

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I always assume scum have daytalk besides the newbies. Are you suggesting it's more probable they don't?

Why do you assume this? Daytalk is hardly standard on site and actually is viewed as a fairly powerful tool.

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iStark’s Post 869 looks very much like something he and his partner spent time putting together overnight in their QT. I’ll just point out simply why he’s scum with two quotes from today –

Again, trying to create doubts about our own confirmed players and PR's, real pro-scum play MoI.

Here he is trying to say I’m scum for casting doubts on our confirmed Players and Town PowerRoles. Specifically Om of the Nom.

All I can say to this if you're serious(?) is that,
1.You're either Mafia role cop trying to get miss-lynch on me by posing as town role-cop.
2.Or your investigation results are corrupt/misguided.

Suddenly when Om has a guilty on him what’s the first line of thought out of iStark’s mouth? Om is Scum!

Cognitive Dissonance in full force. I’m scum for questioning Om. But wham … suddenly Om is questionable.

@iStark

– Here’s the thing – you’ve been counterclaimed on being a Town Tracker by two separate players – Om (with a Guilty) and myself (with conflicting Roles and busting your fake action). Are you suggesting we both are scum?

Also please specify if your 'Night actions' specify who you are Tracking in the PM from Voided or not.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes, you're trying to cast doubts not only against Om and Korlash when he was alive, you also parroted how it's right way to lynch conformed towns at the later stages of the game.

It is not scum exclusive line

but in context of this game it is highly likely to be mentioned by only scum.

If this was truly what you thought you would have brought it up yesterday as I was making said ‘offending’ posts. But you didn’t. In fact you thought nothing about my potential scumminess at all until I busted you shows this is just manufactured ‘scum-hunting’.

But the bolded further shows this. You explicitly acknowledge that the posts you are trying to portray as scummy in fact can come from Town.

I derived possibilities as to why he got results which he did, his claim about how Korlash was killed for framing him is not sitting well with me either. To be frank, I'm surprised he is alive considering it's pretty obvious from D3 that we don't have protector role.

So you basically are admitting that you are now casting doubt on him. Which is exactly what you claimed was scummy.

That mean his actions were predicted and manipulated or he is scum. And obviously any sane person will question that.
You think Om is town or scum?

Oh so his actions are manipulated by scum, huh? We’ll deal with the implications of this later.

The thing is I haven't actually been counterclaimed by anything definite.

Oh, really? Why then did you say I agree with this though, there is no room for both of those roles in town ranks. . That post says that you think you have been counter-claimed in a way that we both can’t be Town.

If you and Rban were scum, obviously you would know what he did in nights and it' optimum scum tactic to make most out of his partner lynch. which you did by making your player slot confirmed townie at the end of the day in most peoples eyes, plus you manged to create confusion in towns mind.

And if I was scum with Rban why would I choose to specifically at the same time I counter-claimed him choose to also counter-claim you if you were Town? Because your Town flip would assure my death. This post is a classic ‘Appeal To Fear’.

Why did you pick Rban to follow when he was likely to be tracked by other PR's?

I picked him based on my quick re-read of the flip that occurred before I replaced in that Night and his vote placement and manner in which he voted.

Here’s a question – why did you track him if you thought he was likely the target of other investigative roles?

Where are your night actions? you should think about giving them first rather then asking mine when I said it clearly that I haven't yet gotten reply from Void.

I have a result from last Night. I’m waiting for input from said player before I reveal it. Worried I nailed your scum partner making the Night-kill last night?

As far as Om is concerned if he wasn't diverted or manipulated he is scum.
Most likely I was blocked.

And now we get to the “iStark’s discussions with manipulation” part of the thread.

1. Like rban (who was a Goon) you are suddenly claiming to be role-blocked.
2. You are simultaneously saying that Om’s investigation was diverted or manipulated.

Here’s the upshot from this – you are claiming that Mafia has a Roleblocker type (either RB or Jailkeeper) and either a Redirector-type or a Tailor / Framer type.

Om can rule out the Redirector quite simply –

@Om

– did your PM result indicate that your investigation target was specifically iStark?

Once Om gets back to us we can further discuss this line of thinking.

@iStark

– you never confirmed whether you specifically had the name of your investigation choice in your PM giving your results. Why is that?

[MagnaofIllusion]

My misguided/framed results from N2 of ''tracked player X doing nothing'' did me in.

I’m putting this up front to highlight how his claims of beign redirected / messed with make no sense.

In my results PMs I receive flavor detailing my ‘thoughts’ and actions of the Night. In the flavor the name of my target is specifically mentioned … ie Night 2 it said I was observing the doorway of Rban.

If iStark was redirected the new name should show up in his flavor PM not his original target IMO. So him being redirected is out.

As to being tampered with – I suppose there could be a variant role that ‘messes’ with Tracker results but I have never seen one in use. The only time I have seen Tailors / Framers they have only messed with alignment investigations.

So iStark’s claims that his busted N2 action claim was caused by outside interference doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

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Can somepony tabulate all results though so far by everypony who has claimed each night?

Someone who has been around the full game should probably be in charge of this for accuracy purposes.

My slot’s actions –

N1 – No action (damn you Lopsy)
N2 – Follow Rban – he used no ability. I think this is important for balancing later. Rban was a good so it doesn’t make sense for him not to make the kill as such unless his partners are either Non-active powers (like Godfather / Ninja) or scum are allowed to both Kill and use an active ability at the same time.
N3 – Follow Feirei – he used no ability.

I also confirmed with the Mod overnight that the Mafia Nightkill action is an ability that would show up to my role.

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Not surprised at the guilty on iStark. His reaction is scummy.

Remind me again – what was your read on iStark before he was caught?

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There is difference between what you did and what I did in Om case, you casted doubt when he was confirmed and accused of him by using WIFOM argument like ''No one actually stopped the game since mod committed mistake?''

You apparently don’t have a grasp on game balancing so let me lay something out for you.

A set-up is balanced with the roles as put together in mind.
The Mod accidently confiming not one but two living players as Town via a mistake effectively adds two Innocent Children to the set-up which is a pretty large swing in the set-up.

If, upon replacing into a thread, someone told you “Hey – Amrun and I were confirmed Town by Mod mistake” would you not consider that a very unusual event that warranted questioning.

As it stands I don’t think that actually occurred upon review of the actual Mod input which I was able to do last Night.

But your attempts to call that undermining are noted (as funny).

I'm doubting him since his behavior right now is that of scum or short sighted town.

But you were just calling him confirmed Town I was ‘trying to undermine’. How could he possibly be scum? If he is scum I would not be trying to undermine him as Town would I? Your logic makes no sense when looked at objectively.

Yes, really. I said there isn't room for both of this roles in this game as there are to many PR's and that tilt's balance greatly in Towns favor. Hence me believing you're lying.

Well which is it? Have I counter-claimed you definitively since you agree our roles don’t make sense as both Town in the set-up? Or has nothing definitively countered your claim?

I already answered this even before you asking. It's pro-scum move to make most of his partner's buss.
And if we lynch another town PR today then with 2 scum's remaining + one Miller claim+One claimed Cop and knowing your ability to turn anything into valid argument could easily make odds in your favor.
So, my flip as town wouldn't do you much damage on the other hand town losing one more almost confirmed(According to most) PR would damage town's great deal. As my result's would come under scrutiny & spread confusion.

You dodged my question – what point is there for me as scum to bus my hypo-partner Rban while at the same time counter-claiming you if you were Town. Because even with RBan flipping scum you then flipping Town means I am assured to be the lynch the next day. It makes no logical sense for me to coutner-claim you and push my partner if you are Town.

You keep spinning these ‘I’m Town’ scenarios that don’t make any logical sense. What makes more logical sense is your being scum who was soft-bussing your partner who made a bad fake-action choice not thinking I was a PowerRole and who had it explode in his face.

I never tracked Rban down, I tracked Lopsy (Your player slot) on N2 and that's what you based your argument about me being scum.

That’s the exact point. You keep claiming Rban would be the obvious choice for an investigation from Town. And in the same breathe claiming you were Town who didn’t track Rban. Your behavior doesn’t match your claim.

If you lynch me today you lose one PR and if Om is town PR being redirected you will lose other PR tomorrow.

Pure ‘Appeal to Fear’ – if you lynch me you lose a PowerRole. Are you suggesting we don’t lynch a Powerrole who is caught scum just because you are a Powerrole when being a Tracker in no way means you are Town?

This makes me wonder as to why Om got his results earlier then me. but this is WIFOM argument and shouldn't be used to heavily.
So I wont pursue it.

And here’s another example of you softly throwing suspicion on OM … you state something that is suspect but then state it is WIFOM so you will not pursue.

For the record I got my results right after Day opened so if anyone is lying it’s you.

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I doubt there is more than 4 mafia and 2 risking themselves like this is not likely considering we still have quite a lot of players alive.

I’d like you to elaborate on why you think we have even more than 3 Mafia. That I’d very much like to hear.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be LA from 4:30 PM EDT today until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

@MOi well I never said there was more the 3 scum, I just said less than 4. Two very different things. The fourth scum was thrown in for a +1 error range.

This response makes little sense. 4 scum in a 13 player mini is pretty unbalanced unless you have some pretty strong counter-measures in place to prevent Nigthkills. And there is pretty much no evidence of those yet.

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Just to answer this, scum can get flavor by Mod if he requests one from him as well. So, just because I didn't get any flavor I'm scum is not eligible argument.

So how do you exactly know that scum can request flavor again? Slip much?

2. Look at the thread again, I did question it and that's when the fact that ''Mod had confirmed Amrum accidentally''.

But you are dodging the point. You immediately called me out for ‘strirring up suspicion of Om” when I had not read the exchange at that point. And now you are saying you did ‘question it at the time” so why is my questioning it right when I replace in scummy?

It’s not. It’s just you flailing as caught scum on the line.

4.Y, both our roles make no sense in same setup as town, but then again I know you're not town and NO, this is not you counter claiming me definitely since, we know for sure that scum has framer/buss-driver among their ranks.

Actually the only way you know Scum’s make-up at this juncture is if you are scum. But continue to dodge around the fact that you want it both ways - you want to say you haven’t been counter-claimed but likewise say our claims conflict.

5.I did answer your question. My point is even if you're lynched tomorrow there is still one more scum to go and do in other towns with no PR's left considering you guys kill Om in night if he is town or he is the other scum partner.

Town can find scum without Power-roles, but thanks for using a bit more ‘Appeal to Fear’ with your ‘Town is screwed without it’s PowerRoles”.

6.I've answered as to why I chose Lopsy over Rban and others long time ago when someone called me out on it. And apparently I was right in choosing Lopsy.

Yet your reasoning as to why my result on RBan is bad is because he was an obvious target for Town Powerroles other than myself. Yet neither you nor Om used your abilitites on him in the Night in question. So your ‘logic’ in trying to say I am scummy make zero sense. Again – you are flailing.

7.No, I'm saying they are believing obvious scum (You) over me (who is claimed PR with N1 results to back me up) and other one (Om) likely being his partner in scum team or derpy town PR doesn't help town's much.

ITT iStark continues to try and sell that “I’M A TRACKER I CAN’T BE SCUM” which is clearly a pretty absurd premise.

8.I wont pursue it since I know it's WIFOM unlike you who pursued Mod mistake to get suspicions on Om going on D3 when he was clearly acting/cofom town in everyone's eyes. I just know that Om is lying about Mod telling him that he was the last one to get actions < actions like this on D4 are exactly what making me iffy on his player slot and making me wonder about his alignment, before you ask me again I thought I would clear this up.

So Om is lying about something that you state only makes sense if he is scum yet you are ‘unsure’ about his alignment. Why are you fence-sitting so hard?

Is Om scum or not?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Have to get lunch but wanted to drop my Night results in thread –

ActionDan did not take an action last Night.

Based on OM flipping Town Sane Cop Action is now confirmed Town.

More after I have eaten.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’ll be focusing my next few posts on looking at everyone not named ActionDan in ISO looking at interactions with RBan’s slot and iStark.

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I have no idea why MOI is alive though.

I have some thoughts on the matter but I don’t think they are prudent at this juncture. Since we have no clear lynch like the last two days I think it best to discuss after everyone has weighed in.

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Well I am town so to me its between rainbow and ferei

Well one good thing out of this whether MOI is town or scum, AD is confirmed. Which leaves me, Rd, and Moi. And apparently CSL is town. Id say to lynch RD even though deep down I feel CSL is scum.

So what changed between these posts other than I didn’t ‘confirm’ you?

Well I know Im town and would not like to be lynched. Our best course of action is to see what MOI says of his results. Hopefully MOI can clear up some of this confusion if he is town. Im really hoping he used his ability on me, then I can be confirmed.

Everyone refresh my memory – neither of the Cops ever scanned Lucky, correct?

[MagnaofIllusion]

yay MoI actually made the right pick for a target

PoE is a powerful tool. And after iStark’s death a negative result from Dan combined with a Nightkill absolutely confirms him (to me at least) regardless of Om’s alignment.

If CSL was a GF he would have killed MoI instead of OOTN, as only way he got in trouble was if Lucky got checked meaning it WIFOMed to him or a GF already existing while MoI could have flat out busted him. Plus really, CSL to have no nowhere means it basically needs to tracker-ninja-goon with the counter role (ninja) being aimed at the non copied town role.

Actually there are equal numbers of Town ‘sensing’ Investigation roles as there are Town ‘alignment determining’ Investigation roles –

Om and Amrun – Cops

Vijay and myself – Voyeur and Follower

I have some thoughs about the set-up that I will want to get into after I finish my re-read.

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Actually thinking about it, the strangest thing this game is iStark claiming to track Moi nowhere N2 and Moi countering that.

I have a theory on that but want to re-read the flow of how Om revealed his results compared to how iStark claimed his to be sure it makes sense.

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Feirei, regardless of how cleared, needs to get in here and post.

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Luckyjt ISO review thoughts

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Post 122 – Luckyjt responds to a post by iStark (Post 119). It’s a very casual interaction that doesn’t have any sorts of indication that they are scum-hunting each other.

Post 128 – Both flipped scum are in luckyJT’s Null reads.

Post 201 – This I noticed in that Luckyjt clears Deltawave as he doesn’t think scum would claim Miller as Delta did.

@Luckyjt – Is there any reason other than PoE that Rainbow is now your top pick for scum after you cleared that slot early?

Post 516 – This twigged my scumdar the first time I read. Luckyjt hypoclaims two negative results – iStark being ‘followed’ to a kill and Rainbowdash lying. Yet he shows no sign of following up on them. I’m not sure the motive Town would have to concoct two results that indicate being scum in a hypoclaim that came from non-scum suspects.

Post 550 – I am back and forth on this post. It reads as baiting an investigation (I don’t like that Amrun didn’t pick me) but that really isn’t viable given that Om was killed over me which I feel is Town motivated. On the other hand we see him calling out the fact that Town doesn’t likely have a Doc. Which scum would be in a much better position to speculate on given their overall better understanding of the set-up.

Post 552 – Gives an indication that he finds iStark scummy with no associated questioning or reasoning. Possible distancing given he doesn’t really follow-up on it.

Post 825 – His “I think scum are hiding in the PR claims” is odd given it happened just before iStark claimed Town Tracker. I’m not sure scum who knows what iStark’s role is would be laying that suspicion out there.

Post 840 and Post 849 – These really don’t make sense coming from scum partners to RB and iStark.

Post 907 – Mild back and forth with iStark after he was already outed as scum. Possible late distancing?

Conclusion –

I see conflicting signs in his ISO. He does have tons of tell-tale newb-scum tells (absolutely ignores RBan’s slot and throws down mild distancing from iStark, possible tipping of hand on inside information). On the other hand I see a few posts that don’t make much sense from a scum perspective.

Up next is Rainbowdash / Delta.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Delta / Rainbowdash ISO –

I take it from my re-read that the Miller claim occurred in the archives …

Post 27 – Gives iStark ‘scumpoints’ for Post 19 but doesn’t vote him.. Apparently that was for voting him. Not sure if it is awkward distancing or not.

Post 246 – Here he replaces out and labels Korlash and Lucky as gut scum reads. The fact that he doesn’t include iStark despite him earning scum-points at 27 seems suspect.

Post 273 – Replace in Town and Scum reads are specifically do not contain either flipped scum.

Question Rainbow – why did you specify specifically ‘Cop and Gunsmith’ as the hypo options?

Post 275 – This post at least rings true from the standpoint that I know the game in questions (it was not that old) and he was indeed a Town character as described.

Post 294 – In light of the way the claim of the role was handled I don’t like the Rolefishing attack on Iceguy here.

Post 296 and Post 297 – I’ll leave my judgment on these posts until Rainbow answers my question above.

Post 301 – Non-Null reads still does not include iStark or RBan’s slot.

Post 311, Post 313 and Post 320 – This sequence is very, very suspect in my mind. In 311 he reaffirms that he is happy with his CSL vote.

In 313 he says “I have no faith in the competence of other ponies at this point. Everything needs to be as simply spelled out as possible if not simpler.”

Then three quick votes come in succession from iStark, OM and Malth on his top suspect. His response is to unvote quickly and only question the two flipped Town about their votes. iStark is not mentioned. Very suspect. Espcially given that Rainbow never actually made a CSL case himself. In fact he specifically calls CSL a ‘Policy Lynch’ in 273.

Post 323 – Asks iStark a question about choosing between V2V and CSL as lynches. Yet there is no follow-up at all to iStark’s response (which comes at Post 375).

Post 328 – He he reaffirms that ‘speed of the wagon’ was his sole reason for not liking the wagon on CSL. He does mention that iStark was on that tail end.

Post 363 – First direct interaction with BB / RBan slots I can see. Also out of the blue suggests that he’s “wierded out” by the events of the Day and suggests a PowerLynch on Lopsy who hasn’t appeared in his ISO to this juncture. And makes the following statement –

My mane problem here is that im not sure if we can even do anything BUT lyching CSL at this point... I just really think that late part of the wagon on him is more likely than not scum. This just happened way too fast for me to be comfortable with it. While I do know that its possible for wagons to spring up out of nowhere on scum, is just really rare, and the lack of a case makes me think that the slot is derpy (like half this BUCKING GAME) but is town.

I don’t like this on a gut level at all. He fence-sitting on CSL right at deadline … softly supporting it (I don’t know if we can do anything else) while saying he will probably not flip scum.

Post 427 – At a gut level the phrase “This day is going to suck I think” gives me the sense of scum positioning for ‘Town cred” given that neither of the flipped scum were in any danger of hanging.

Post 441 – Prods BBmolla to resolve “where your vote is going”.

Post 476 – Very much dislike this “Amrun’s claim doesn’t make sense based on my role PM” post. It leaves the possibility open that he can push for a Amrun lynch on what we now know to be poor grounds.

Post 517 – I wonder about this given 273. Was there significant discussion about Hypo-claiming that didn’t show up in this ISO read I am missing from someone?

Post 539 – The following –

Me/CSL/Korlash are town

I want to say AD and lucky too, will be surprised if more than one scum in those ponies.

So Ice/Lopsy/OOTN/molia/Amrun/Stark is where I am at right now. Im not intereted in molia or Amrun lynches today. I could swing to Ice but I think he is more likely poor town instead of scum. Lopsy and Stark bug me a whole lot on gut, but OOTN is legit scummy.

CSL is now ‘Town’. The PoE list shows both flipped scum in his suspect pool but he is ‘not interested’ in BBMolla and puts iStark at a nebulous ‘bugs me’ level.

Post 611 – Again asks iStark to justify a vote and does not follow-up (response was at Post 615.

Post 735 – Once again PoEs both BBmolla and iStark as scum and moves at someone else (in this case Iceguy).

Post 799 – Begins Day 3 with his ‘gambit’ on iStark. I will need to review the Om / iStark interactions (from early Day 2) before I conclude on this.

Post 833 – Tries to clear iStark as Town based on the Tracker claim and his response to the ‘Miller’ claim. The reasoning for this is predicated, of course, on Rainbowdash being Town.

Post 846 – He finally votes the RBan slot after RBan’s busted fake-claim.

Post 886 – First post of Day 4. Avoids directly commenting on the iStark versus MoI back and forth that started Day 3 and asks for ‘tabulated results’. Possible waiting out to see which way Town would fall on our 1v1.

Post 917 – I’m noting this for later after my run-downs are complete. The timing of iStark’s self-hammer right after Rainbowdash voted for him gives my gut more roiling.

And that leads us back to today.

Conclusion – After seeing both this slot and Lucky’s back to back ISOs I’m much more inclinded to believe Rainbowdash is the last scum over Lucky. I still need to look at CSL / Feirei and look at the Om / iStark interactions surrounding Day 2.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be LA from today at 4:30pm EDT until Monday AM for my usual weekend family duties.

If im going to get lynched, let me put together exactly who I want to get lynched tomorrow.

Why is this your reaction when exactly zero votes are on you IIRC?

@MoI - Do you believe that I am a goon or something else?

unvote

I think you are clearly not a Goon. That should be pretty clear as evidenced by the flips. Once I finish my re-reads I will place my vote.

Also - if you didn’t notice I had a few questions to you in that post. Please answer them.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok so your arguement is going to be that Delta-PR claimed a complicated miller role, followed by both teammates (Mist and Stark) trying to get him lynched for it. After that I forced my parter to come out in a claim after there already was two cop and voyeur claims. Finally I actually killed a cop over you, where as scum all I needed to do was hold back, kill you, lynch whatever of OOTN didnt investigate, kill him and then im in a F3 with AD and whatever of lucky/CSL didnt get investigated.

Bascially the whole argument here is “This is so unlikely to have happened I can’t be scum” when your argument for me being scum is also a long, convoluted process. But let’s look at the individual element.

1. Delta-PR claimed a Complicated Miller role – Why do you see this as something that isn’t likely. It was known pre-game that this was an investigation heavy game (which has been born out). Why is it so odd that a Non-Godfather scum would claim Miller in a set-up that makes sense to perhaps have multiple so as to ward off investigations?

2. You ‘forced’ your partner to claim and then immediately cleared him as Town. This point can’t be forgotten in context of your ‘How does this balance now” suggestions. You were more than happy to call Cop-Cop-Voyuer-Tracker balanced for Town but now you are basically arguing that Cop-Cop-Voyeur-Follower isn’t.

3. Your point about “Why wouldn’t I kill you over OOTN” actually doesn’t track given your Post 999 where you call me a Godfather. Why would I, as a Godfather, kill OOTN when he could ‘clear’ me at some point and create all sorts of WIFOM regarding ActionDan perhaps not being Town. The flip-side argument applies to your position – why would I kill the Cop over you if I was immune scum? It doesn’t make sense for you to make the kind of arguments you are making against me suddenly on one hand and simulatenously make arguments directly contradictory in your own defense.

Cop and gunsmith were to cover two different bases at once. In an investigative heavy game, gunsmith make sense to add false positives.

Out of curiosity, you ignore all flipped scum to me interactions. Why?

But you blithely ignored the other logic branch of investigation (Tracking / Watching / Voyuer / Follower) in your initial ‘hey let’s Mass-claim’. Cop and Gunsmith are pretty redundant in the set-up as we know it now and I’m curious as to why you didn’t direct others to the Tracking branch of the tree but both yourself and iStark started the day giving out hypo-claims on that end.

Again – in my ISOing have I missed relevant parts of conversation from Town players on that end?

And you didn't seem to care when I looked at Luckyjt's ISO or consider I haven't completed my ISO work yet ...

Plus again, we are top heavy power wise at cop/cop/voyuer/motion sensor/miller vs tracker/goon/?. Two weak info roles just feels a bit off too, but thats a lesser point. For this to balance with MoI-town, Lucky would have to be something strong (which makes no sense in his self-sacrafice mode). Putting MoI-scum either as weak role (and maybe even goon) balances.

As I mentioned earlier … you were more than happy to clear Cop-Cop-Voyuer-Tracker as Town.

And I know it doesn’t make any sense for you to suggest you are scum but the rest of us have to consider the strong possibility you are a Power-role scum.

Are you suggesting that a set-up of Town Cop times 2 / Town Voyuer / Miller and VTs is balanced by Tracker / ‘other weak role’ / Goon or Tracker / Goon times 2? That’s astonishingly bad set-up speculation. Futhermore later I’m suddenly not another weak role but a Godfather. This reads very much as ‘grasping at straws’ here.

If you lynch me today just lynch him tomorrow. MoI will "follow" CSL tonight if I get lynched, since otherwise im pretty sure he would come up with a "went nowhere" and try and give ninja fears.

Oh so a Ninja is just some sort of “fear-mongering” and not something that should logically be considered given the set-up? Yet Godfather speculation is Pro-Town and not fear-mongering?

I’d also like your take on why clearing ActionDan is something that makes sense for me as scum. You don’t seem to be addressing that given you earlier praised it as the correct move.

In the end this whole reaction from you (Luckyjt is scum, vote him, MoI is scum now that he’s looked at my ISO and found it funky, I know I’m getting lynched so hang MoI tomorrow) doesn’t ring true to Rainbowdash / your other account that I have played with.

In the game you are mentioning you took your time ‘catching’ me at endgame and didn’t make what look like knee-jerk / panic reactions to the least amount of pressure.

I just want it on record – you aren’t trying to suggest aside from claim and balance based areas that my look at your ISO is in any way incorrect? Because you haven’t addressed the fact that you basically completely ignored your partners until absolutely necessary (when they had been outed), directed attention elsewhere when they were on your ‘suspicions’ list, and tried to clear iStark as Town with his claim.

Its MoI. I am happy (well not "happy" but content) being lynched if you will just lynch him tomorrow, I just dont want Lucky throwing the game with a "herpa derpa he claimed a PR" move.

So you were sure enough that you were happy Lucky was your vote earlier and now you are addressing him as Derp-Town? If anything the fact that you only looked at me after I looked into your slot and suddenly found all this ‘scum motivation’ and were happy to vote the weakest non-confirmed player in the game is telling.

You (again) do realize that MoI busted the already critically wounded rban claim, and as I said it was the correct play for him to bust the Stark claim right? I think he is either going to be a GF here, since that would probably about balance vs two cops/voyuer/miller. Heck I can even see saying making him a goon sorta balances it.

If im scum how does this balance? That question goes for AD and MoI too.

Clearly Ninja makes absolute sense for you given

1. Your claim that ‘specifically’ circumvents the Cop style investigation but no the Trackers / Watcher branch.
2. The fact that you are selling a Ninja as fear-mongering

And your 'his motivation makes sense as scum" also applies to you - your behavior (ignoring partners, trying to clear a partner based on PR claim, only pressuring them when it was a forgone conclusion) also fits quite nicely as scum.

--

The only person who's won the game if they are scum is CSL... or me (it's ok guys I'm town and will die tomorrow. I'm totally scum though if I survive. totally.)

You can only be scum if you are both Godfather and Ninja. If so congratulations.

Moi could I have your theory as to why istark lied about tracking you?

My working theory about why iStark lied about tracking my slot was that he lied about his N1 track and used it to track Lopsy. His reaction to my counter-claiming him was my first clue (specifically the “Lopsy was totally active you liar”). Here’s what I think happened.

1. iStark tracks Lopsy N1. Gets a ‘no-result’ and thinks “Aha, VT” and thus a safe bet for a later “He didn’t go anywhere” fake-claim. Little does he know Lopsy actually flaked on his / her action.
2. Next let’s look at the positions of the ‘Hypo-claims’

Om does his hypo at Post 515 saying he hypo-copped Korlash.
iStark does his hypo at Post 523 afterwards when he suggests he tracked Om.

Now iStark doesn’t actually confirm this is his actual action until the Day where I busted him. In fact he actually votes Om at Post 608 for reasons completely divorced from Om’s claim (which if he had actually tracked Om he would have known were accurate).

So I think iStark was pretty clearly stringing his claim along in trying to make ‘logical’ sounding uses of his role that didn’t actually reflect he actually did. And his incorrect assumption (Lopsy equals VT equals safe ‘Fake-Track’) bit him in the ass.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Up next I will be doing my ISO of CSL / Feirei and then of both iStark and RBan's slot.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI is totally scum here, but im in a bad position where I know that I basically need to be the lynch, so as long as I can make sure that he is getting lynched tomorrow im fine making that move to take him down.

If you self-vote I’ll stop re-reading and not put up a fight tomorrow assuming I survive to then.

Your reasoning for the fake track is derpy too... you are saying that Stark correctly guessed that OOTN was an active PR when he breadcrumbed so was willing to risk a fake claim on that? No way in hay thats true. His results except maybe for yours are entirely true. Really what possibly is his motivation to fake a result on town? If he was worried about clearing town through WIFOM of "why target them" he would fake a result on a partner. Which I think he did.

Oh, so he breadcrumbed as scum in a way that he might come back to it if a claim occurred and only claim said breadcrumb after OOTN claimed and you think my reasoning is ‘derpy’. Your rhetoric here does not suit you Rainbow.

Your logic is faulty. He’s a scum Tracker crumbing and being absolutely careful with his actions expect for when he claimed on me. And as you said before his reaction is real so he was ‘taken by surprise’ but instead of just bussing Rban and keeping quiet I double-bussed for the hell of it.

Also yes. I had both scum at null to lean scum for a majority of the game. Im not going to say I had good scum reads at all, and

Stark threw me for a loop when he claimed tracker since he was obviously a tracker. I figured I just got unlucky with a gambit and hit a town PR.

[

And the bolded undermines your ‘sudden revelantion’ stance. You are retrofitting your opinion to support your conclusion. If you are telling me you, as Town, in the moment thought that he as scum who got caught in a gambit but only when I pointed out how your play has been scummy suddenly I’m obv-scum then no, I don’t buy it.

Cop/Cop/Voyure/Miller vs Tracker/Goon/[Goon/GF] is about right to me. I know its gaming the mod, but do you really think that in a setup with two sane cops there is no miller or GF? And instead there is a ninja that counters a grand total of one town PR?

I love this. Ninja only counters one powerrole. Except I’m Town so I know it’s Cop/Cop/Voyuer/Follower versus Goon / Tracker / ???? and Ninja which neutralizes half the Town powerroles makes absolute sense.

You may keep Appealing to Repetition on this ‘Ninja makes no sense’ argument but that doesn’t mean it’s true.

I also want a "yes I will follow CSL" from you since I have not gotten that one yet.

I have no problems stipulating to that given that I think you hanging ends the game as evidenced above by my statement.

Also you make more sense than anypony to have killed OOTN. That one I dont see how you can even start to ignore. I know you arent derpy enough to seriously believe if you are town either that I let you live as scum. There is a reason I basically never lose as scum, and part is I know how to STOP anypony from being cleared. I kill you and GF speculation of AD opens up since he was not that great looking, and I could probably have taken him down 1v1 if needed, and with luck OOTN burned a cop on me or CSL leaving Lucky as the easy first lynch, or if not GF speculation still comes into play.

And here you once again make no sense.

You can’t give my ONE reason why I as any of the scum you are calling me (either Goon or Godfather) would kill OOTN given that I as scum have to strongly believe I’m not getting scanned for all the reasons you are making (that I was in a strong Town position). You can’t give me one.

You further pretend I’m too dangerous for you as scum to make me live and then turn around in the same post and talk about how you ‘caught’ me before. If I was scum I’d have taken you out in a heartbeat if that was the case.

Yes this whole argument revolves around “I Rainbowdash am too skillful to let you live and could easily take everyone else out”. That’s a bill of sale I am not buying.

OOTN was basically confirmed through mod messing up, but lack of a GF flip makes you the bigger threat, unless again you are going to argue that a ninja is the counter to four investigative town PRs, only one of which can be countered by ninja.

Look it’s the broken record again. You argue a Godfather makes perfect sense a Ninja doesn’t based on statistics that are skewed by the false assumption I am not Town. A Ninja and Godfather are equally potent in a Two Cop / Two Tracker-Watcher style game.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be LA from 4:30pm EDT today until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties. And specifically this weekend with a charity golf Scramble on Saturday to help with and Mother’s Day on Sunday my posting is likely to be restricted to late nights if at all.

--

VOTE: Rainbowdash

He tracked OOTN night one. Zero way he didnt outside of him planning to claim VT because it busts his true fakeclaim. Why did he lie about you though? He tracked other town (who?) and just randomly decided to claim a went nowhere result on you instead? The move was horrible, I will give that point up, but I dont think he tracks town and lies about you going nowhere if you are also town. It makes the most sense for you to be the one that submitted the kill or something and figured it would make him suspect if two non-active scum PRs flip.

No, it only makes sense when you filter it through the prism of “MoI is scum so let’s look at the actions with that in mind and find a conclusion”. The last sentence makes no sense at all.

Rban is a flipped Goon. If I am said Godfather as you keep floating and no other ‘tracker' style role exists (which is your premise given you claim I am not a Follower) it make zero sense for him to fake-claim me going nowhere. There is no Town role that threatens me and him flipping scum Tracker will make his ‘choice’ of me and resulting ‘no action’ look even more suspect if I am ‘cleared’ by OOTN.

It would have made much more sense for him to clear Rban at that stage if you are suggesting a gambit by iStark with his claimed actions to help his team.

I’ll stand by my theory as stated and we can discuss post-game once all alignments are known.

This has nothing to do with you, this is why I was thinking Stark was town and my move hit a town PR instead of hitting scum.

No it just shows how in the moment you jumped to clear iStark but then when put to the wall you suddenly went back and ‘reasoned’ out a completely different line of thought.

It’s called exposing scum motivated play Llama.

Ninja beats your claim, it tells a voyure that there is a ninja. So it counters one role, has nothing to do with two, and is identified as existin by the fourth if you are town. Biggest thing it counters? The dead scum role.

Um whut? A ninja is immune to both Followers / Voyuers / Trackers / Watchers. You trying to suggest otherwise is wrong and highlights to me you are trying to fit your arguments to a conclusion not the other way around.

OOTN was close to confirmed town. Thats why. He is going to next to remove somepony (probably Lucky) from the easy lynch pool too. Its not that you are afraid of being caught by a cop, its that you are afraid of what PoE will do. You and I both know that keeping everypony as lynchable is one of the hardest and most essential things to pull off as scum, and letting OOTN live makes it harder to do such. OOTN live, Lucky becomes a hard lynch and then what? You, me, Lucky all are getting reexamined.

See this is where I know you don’t believe your arguments.

You keep trying to suggest I had motive to kill OOTN because he was next to confirmed Town but you had zero reason to. Well if he was confirmed Town and it was a danger to a ‘hypo-Godfather’ why isn’t it a danger to you-scum.

Oh that’s right. You are so much better than everyone else you would not fear PoE. Noted.

No you wouldnt have. Just about everypony is somewhat unsure of me and I showed next to no suspicion of you.

Aside from Nom (who ended up dead just after giving that suspicion BTW, what are the odds of that hmmmm ....) who else suspected you? Provide links to support your stance please.

Vote MoI

I really cant see me coming off this today. Ive been thinking about it but I really think it just makes the most sense over a somewhat suicidal last scum.

@ActionDan / CSL

– Do not let Rainbowdash off tomorrow if I end up dead today. He’s already made it clear he thinks he can out-argue anyone left come the morning. The absurd crap he’s spewing today is a pretty clear sign of desperate scum trying to buy as much Town cred as possible. Just look at how he's acting all "Towny" and complying with Dan's request simply because ActionDan is confirmed Town. He's still hoping CSL will side with him today and then to 'work his magic' tomorrow.

CSL

– this especially applies to you. If ActionDan dies at Night make Rainbow and Luckyjt cross-vote and then look carefully at all of Rainbow’s arguments today

AFTER

I reviewed his ISO and found it wanting. He only suddenly discovers I am scum after I suspect him. His play from that point is "Shit, have to take care of the biggest threat to me now when before he hadn't shown any interest in thinking I am scum".

--

vote: MagnaofIllusion

I feel that of everyone playing moi is the biggest threat if mafia. I know I am risking Moi being town and helpful to finding mafia, yet If we let moi live as mafia it will be bad for town because of what I have said before. So I am truly hoping this ends the game or else we will have one hell of a day if this game continues.

So I’m the best lynch because I’m “the biggest threat”?

Dear god this game …

--

Questions for all!

Would cop-cop-voyeur be considered high or low power? would cop-cop-voyeur-follower be considered high or low power?

would goon-goon-tracker be low/high scum power? [GF or ninja]--goon--tracker?

Cop / Cop / Voyuer is mid to high power IMO.
Cop / Cop / Voyuer / Follower is clearly high power.
Goon / Goon / Tracker is very low power. Hell even in a game that simply had Cop / Cop that scum grouping isn’t close to balanced.
Cop / Cop / (GF or Ninja) is high power.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think my thoughts are pretty well categorized in the Mafia QT so I'll keep this short.

The fact that this game continued after Day 2 is beyond me.

1. Mod screws up and jumbles around role PMs. When this is discovered the solution of "Oh, let's just add another Town Sane Cop" the the set-up being the decision is mind boggling. Especially given that scum had Goon / RoleCop / Tracker. I'd like to see if Mr. Flay and Hoopla actually do agree that this was their decision regarding the error. 1 Sane Cop in a Set-up is generally powerful. Two in a game with no scum way to counter-act except with Death (no Roleblocker or Godfather for a false clear) is so out of balance I'm amazed it continued. The proper decision would have been to force-replace Amrun and give her replacement the VT role PM.
2. Then we have said roles being Mod confirmed (and they were ... clear as Day when I actually read the thread) and the subsquent confirmed Town clears that created further made the game irreparably damaged.

Had I been reading through the game before I chose to replace in (which I only did to help out post-crash) I would never have taken the slot.

Otherwise congratulations to Town I guess.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh man, MoI was so damn lucky he chose to kill me over RD. He would have been dead in an instant otherwise.

It's hardly luck ... it's called having a brain.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'd still even go so far as to say mafia would be advantaged in this setup against Cop/Cop/Voyeur/Miller, but that's a side-point.

Then frankly I don't understand your thinking on any level. Two scum Powerroles that can only find Town Powerroles are hardly a balance for two Cops who can claim Day 2 and immediately PoE the scum. If there was a roleblocker then sure I might be convinced in your argument. But as it stands RoleCop and Tracker both stand out like a sore thumb. As it stands fake-claiming Follower as Rolecop still got PoEd via balance.

The set-up as it stood was terribly unbalanced towards Town. The later Mod error confirming the Cops only magnified this issue.