Mini 1679: Baccano! Mafia - Game Over

[ToastyToast]

vote: thestatusquo

@thestatusquo: Why is it the correct play to role claim immediately? Answering such a question with "its correct" is a non-answer. Unless someone is claiming miller they should keep that quiet.

If you are indeed a bulletproof townie, then scum will now hesitate to target you. Why end your ability to be protection for others?

[ToastyToast]

I've seen those two things used interchangeably. Or used as "well, who are you and why does it match with bulletproof?"
But given that half the shows characters are literally bulletproof, odds are it has flavour to match so who cares? I would keep it quiet.

considering that the game just started and that there was a mix of random and non-random votes, i decided to place a random vote while questioning the more serious issues.

But...you haven't questioned more serious issues?
All you've done is ask a question of TSQ that has already been asked, and ask Broseidon to expand on his answer. There are other things to go on that you aren't mentioning at all.

As a side note, have we played together before? I call my scumreads "burnt toast," so I thought it was interesting that you picked up on that in your rvs.

@Mika I think playing in my presence is effecting your grammar XD *sigh... my grammar*

I'm not a fun-nazi, but do you have anything on topic to say?
Getting good vibes from Mika's line of questioning, also as much as I feel TSQ needs to be questioned, they are going on V/LA so it may not be the best time.

[ToastyToast]

I'm actually curious as what Mainez should address according to you. Because other than you probing at jokingly players, there isn't any difference.

Upon looking back I realize I made a mistake. I thought she made the post directly after my own, so I was thinking "why are you just restating what I said with less complexity?" But it was the other way around.

1. Because it probably won't make any difference, which I realized with further thought, due to the nature of the show upon which this game is based.
2. I mean, he shouldn't. bulletproof is awesome, but unless he is confirmed as town, how do we know it's not a ruse by scum?
3. Our possible PRs can do whatever the fuck they want. If it were me, however, that would be my action. I think he should be checked.

Which of these do you disagree with and why?

"I'm not saying they should do it but they should do it."
I think Aristophanes as backpedaling a lot, probably didn't expect people to go after him for asking about role.
What you are suggesting is just as bad as the tsq role claim, really. Why do we need to know what your action would be? No one cares/should care. Saying "check this person" gives more information to scum than needed. Just like a town claim.

Might as well be like "hey scum! This is what I plan to do if I'm a PR, and I want other PR's to do it too, so if you have some sort of investigative ability make sure to look at tsq "

Not sure if scummy or just unaware of the importance of withholding information

what do you like on your toast?

Butter

2) You probably don't get it because you're scum

Start the witch hunt everyone! If someone doesn't understand something, lynch them!! If someone understands too much, lynch them too!!!!
Those darn newbs who can't connect reasoning between an argument I don't explain.

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funny, I get that a lot when I am actually active. Bad case of foot in mouth. Regardless, I don't believe I'm flailing. And of course every post is defending my last. I am being asked my thoughts and am responding. It would be wrong not to address these things, and thus they are the mai. Focus of my posts for now. Would you rather I ignore these and look at what little else is going on?

I definitely agree that you should be defending if people are attacking your posts, but you haven't given much with regards to your reactions to these posts. Do any of the people attacking you give you scum-vibes?

Overall it's just been extremely bad timing for TSQ to stir up the game right before he leaves for the weekend.

Do you think his timing with the claim was intentional then? Claim, v/la, then see the fallout?

The way BROseidon is forming reads and asking questions looks town. I liked 59 in particular, it struck me as a very unusual approach for scum to take early game. I also disagree that the way he's handling the Aris push is scummy.

Why is it unusual for scum to ask for meta and call people stupid?

Since apparently everyone in this game is either dumb/town:

Why are you condescending?

I like you and want to town read you, so you probably shouldn't make bad posts like this.

Buddying + treating people differently based on??? Playin' like you're coaching a scumbuddy in a newbie game. yikes.

@JohnnyFarrar
can you say something regarding the game, i don't really like the 4 posts you have made thus far.

What's not to like? I have nothing of substance to say just yet.

Also who's here? I'd like to have a back and forth.

Id there is nothing of substance to say then make something of substance happen.

My overall thoughts on the Aristophanes wagon: of the people pushing him, BRO is the scummiest. Tries to show himself being forceful, but is actually saying very little. He's trying to put people on the defensive, but is unwilling to do the same. Everytime someone asks him a question its "you're stupid so I guess I have to spell things out for you." This coupled with that strange post to Mika just ping me in a bad way. Just because someone disagrees with you doesn't make it "bad," nor does it make it scummy. And calling something scummy while also saying you don't want to scum read them reveals an intent to bring suspicion onto someone without actually sticking by a read.

[ToastyToast]

Good, just sitting here wondering why people complain about a lack of content, then don't say anything when I try to produce content.
Can't do this shit on my own y'all

[ToastyToast]

disagreeing with Toast about Bro.

which part?

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s it possible that I went into today thinking "I'm going to make a play that I have not made before in 9 years on the site and then say that I haven't made the play ever before to get town points? Sure, that's possible as well, but it's not likely. My day one lynch rate as scum is pretty much zero and I don't need to gambit to survive to endgame.

Who cares? Meta reads are irrelevant if the player knows what their meta is. And reputation is worth NOTHING. Same chance of rolling scum as everyone else.
Also saying you barely get lynched day one is like yelling "do you know who I am?" when you're a D list celebrity.

Your reasoning behind the alleged fake claim is definitely something I considered, but the fact that the information you drew from it is "aristophanes is scum" when they've been in the limelight the entire time you were gone already is pretty disappointing.

Johnny Far is being deliberately unhelpful. If anyone with previous experience with him can tell me if he plays a cheeky scum or if he's more likely to be cheeky town I would appreciate it.

Change my mind in the same post. JohnnyFar's 144 is REALLY good. I disagree with a bunch of it, but that doesn't matter. It's a town post.

You have exactly one post in this game which expresses any concrete opinions on anything. If you're scum we're going to lynch you for that eventually, so you should try to get better at pretending, and if you're town I'd really appreciate you showing even the tiniest of initiative in terms of not just sitting back passively and expecting doing absolutely FUCK ALL to be acceptable.

so....what is the truth?

The majority of this post seems pretty town, but I really really REALLY (like big honking alarm bells really) don't like the strawman of bro at the end of it.

How is that comment in any way a strawman? BRO invalidates peoples comments by calling them either dumb or scum, and doing so isn't town behavior.

Also when you get the chance can you explain your Cooldog read?

Maybe the meta has shifted drastically, but when I see a player trying to lead the town (especially in what I would call a questionable direction) day 1, I take note of it. This is because deterministically I have seen scum do this more often than town. It's not a strong scum tell, or any kind of lock, but its definitely enough for a day 2 vote.

When no one does anything, someone has to step up. I don't see this as a tell one way or another, because conversation needs to begin.

[ToastyToast]

Yikes. Did I strike a nerve?

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TSQ's original opinion on me: probably town
Me: *pushes TSQ*
TSQ: YOU ARE A MORON AND AN IDIOT AND STUPID AND I AM JUST FEELING REALLY ATTACKED RIGHT NOW.

TSQ's "consistent" opinions of Johnny Farrar: deliberately unhelpful --->oh, that was actually pretty town
Johnny Farrar: Asks TSQ some questions
TSQ: FUCK YOU YOU USELESS FUCK

Aristophanes: I think we need to do meta; also I'm not comfortable having someone who claimed bulletproof immediately be here forever
Everyone: Why are you trying to dig for information/dictate what we do?
Aristophanes: On second thought, I realize that given the game flavor, this is probably a useless direction. Please, ask me if you have other questions. I'll be transparent.

As someone who figures out his reads based on reactions, I think it is pretty clear which one of these two I think is scummy.
But what do I know? I'm a moron with the cognitive abilities of a fifth grader.

[ToastyToast]

Are you smarter than a fifth grader?

'Cause there's gonna be a test later.

Teacher teacher now we're back in school, are you smarter than you used to be?

Are you smarter than a fifth grader?

Grab a pencil and a piece of paper.

Teacher teacher now we're back in school, so are you smart enough for the fifth grade?

[ToastyToast]

Oh rats, he said 5 years old, not 5th grade!!!!! Sorry I'm cognitively inept, I can't help it!

[ToastyToast]

I'll respond if you apologize for being an ass.

[ToastyToast]

You have the maturity of a five year old, so no.
Grow up.

[ToastyToast]

For the record, my "tiff" with TSQ has nothing to do with what I think about his alignment. Mafia is supposed to be fun, and no one plays to get verbally harassed. It is also just ridiculously anti-town behavior.

You seriously don't see the difference between someone saying "THIS ISN'T MY SCUM META" and someone saying "I literally have never done this in 9 years on the site."

Neither are relevant to alignment, so the difference doesn't matter. I've never used the doctor emoticon but oh look now I have.

My argument is that if a player has not done something in 9 years of play, that means it is less likely they will do it. Does it make it impossible? Of course not, but it means that saying they're likely to be scum BECAUSE of it (which is what you and others are doing) is incoherent. Even if you say that its not a town tell because you think there is a chance that I would do it as scum after never doing it for 9 years of games, that doesn't mean you get to say its suddenly something that's likely to make me scum.

I never said it was a scumtell. I voted you to figure out what your motivation behind claiming was, which could be either town or scum. One of the options I considered was that you were trying to start a conversation (which is why I asked Mika if she thought it was purposeful). I still find it less effective because you were about to go on V/LA when you did this, but that, too, is not at all why I suspect you right now.

I think you are overexaggerating my push on you. If you want to stimulate conversation, then be prepared to be a key part of that conversation. And maybe don't blow up on people when they start questioning you for it.

a) The play was made before I took information from it. (that's, you know, how time works.) How can you possibly say that the two are linked? I made the play without any idea what information it would generate.

Not what I'm pointing out. When you came back in here, you pretty much just...said what was already the thought process of the majority. The difference was your read on CoolDog, and you refused to explain that read...which seems to me like it would be the more useful thing to discuss. Scum will always have a desire to keep the information they give out to a minimum, because they have to fake it. The fact that you came back and just threw a few names out without explaining the "why" is what made me raise an eyebrow. Now that you have explained your CoolDog read, I understand it and don't feel it is something you just made up.

Furthermore, your last sentence makes no sense. (And it is a strawman, we'll get more into that later!) because I never said I was less likely to be scum because of my reputation.

Your words were "my day one lynch rate as scum is pretty much zero and I don't have to gambit to get to the end as scum."
Give me ONE purpose for saying this that is pro-town. Just one.

It is an intimidation tactic that suggests you are "too good" to get lynched day 1 as scum and therefore people shouldn't even try. So, yeah, you were talking about reputation here. And my interpretation of that statement is not a strawman. You literally talked about how you are "so good" at scum, so don't need to gambit and never get lynched (which is a statement about reputation/history). The only purpose I see for that statement is to get people to stop pushing you.

There is literally nothing in any of those posts that is logically incoherent with any of the other ones. JohnnyFar has done almost nothing to find scum all game.

Your Johnny Farrar read was wishy washy, as are all of the reads in which you are like "oh I think this is mostly town, but they are scummy here."

Bro was pretty clearly saying something to the effect of "of course you don't see how what you did was scummy because if you did you wouldn't have posted it." He also didn't say anything remotely like "if you know too much information your scum," and, frankly, if you think his post WAS at all saying that, it's kind of a little bit of a slip on your part. It implies you know information that you think BRO was attacking you for having, even though no such info was implied or attacked in any way.

Both your view of it and mine are both interpretations. Neither are strawmans. My mocking tone toward BROseidon's post was pretty clear. He says only scum wouldn't understand it. Meanwhile he legitimately did not explain his reasoning? Town and scum alike can't read minds. Remember how I said scum doesn't like having to explain things? BROseidon clearly didn't want to here.

As for the second part, that's a misrep. I didn't say anything about holding information when I did that. This was my thought process:
Oh, okay, so apparently BROseidon thinks that if someone asks something (which is, you know, kind of important in a game about figuring out different players' thought process and motivation), he thinks they are either stupid or scum or both. (False Dillema). What's next? Is he going to start attacking people because they DO understand what he's talking about?

Both approaches are straight up nonsensical and antitown. It isn't that hard to be upfront with people...well, unless you're hiding something.

He also wasn't attacking me at all in the statement, and, as you say, said nothing about information. So I don't know where you are going with this "slip" that I apparently made.

Anyways, do you think I'm town or not? Because claiming that I'm slipping here doesn't really agree with calling me probtown.

There is a difference between stepping up by attempting to create discussion and attempting to decide the towns course of action unilaterally and then ram it down their throats.

Yes, there is. And Aristophanes did the former, not the latter.

i'll comment on other stuff in a bit, but in summary:

My read on TSQ isn't about his claim. My read on TSQ isn't about his claim. My read on TSQ isn't about his claim. My read on TSQ isn't about his claim.

[ToastyToast]

But if you look at my past games I think you would see that I have literally never fake claimed day one as scum, nor have I ever claimed unforced as scum period.

The second thing is that NK immune is a scum role more often than a town role. By getting to claim out in the open now we can have the discussion now and not get to lylo and have me claim "lol bulletproof promise not SK THO LOLOLOLOL" and lose because of it.

Now I'm confused...so it wasn't a fake claim?

[ToastyToast]

I've been focussing too much on TSQ, so I'm going to try to formulate an early list of reads/go over stuff more generally.

Buttered Toast

notquitethere: He came out really town to me in his responses to Domino in 226. It is grounded in gut, but that feeling comes from the fact that they've been very clear on their reads, and transparent when people question them. I see transparency as a town tell. Also, his stance on Aristophanes is A+

Cool Dog thinks butting heads is a town-tell. Do you think Aristo came off as town in your exchange?

Uhh? Do you mean TSQ? No, and I don't think butting heads is a town tell. I myself do it as both allignments because when people get frustrated they tend to show their true colors. I think Aristophanes' defense to the early wagon on them was a good, town defense.

Aristophanes: Talking about flavor isn't a scumtell, especially when the player realizes later that it may not be the most effective game in this set up. Shows that they are actually

thinking

about the game, and unwarranted claiming is almost always going to lead to at least one person talking about flavor. I would say a good 80% of the themed games I've played in start with some sort of flavor analysis.

Mikazuki: Their sass in 240 reads town, but even before this I've gotten townvibes from them. They more than anyone seems to be examining every possibility, which suggests that they are actually trying to gather information. Scum don't play that fair.

Toast

Mainez: I wish they would do more than occassionally pop in and ask questions. Tend to point out the obvious, but that isn't necessarily something scum does. Interested to see their interactions with the Hydrangea replacement. Also in
230 I think they misinterpret NQT.

Mainez,

do you lean scum on nqt for this?
Domino: His posts don't make me feel great about his alignment, but I pinpoint why I have that gut reaction yet.
Beer: Inconclusive evidence thus far. But, if Beer is truly a hydra, then why are they not called Beers? Suspicious if you ask me...And what kind of beer?
JohnnyFarrar: Back and forth here. On the one hand I do feel like he would actually be able to make a case with all the questions he asks. But he himself said he's been accused of "playing the psychologist," which would make sense. In any case I think the reasons for the votes on his are really foolish/anti-town. I don't think anyone has given a valid reason yet. They just vote him out of annoyance.
West9: Still not enough info, and not a good lynch. Voting a slot that hasn't been around much is a total cop-out vote.

BurntToast

TSQ: No.

BROseidon: ugh. Their logic makes zero sense and they expect people to understand it. Maybe he just overestimates the worth of his arguments, but this "if you understand me you're town, if you don't then you have a high chance of being scum," has NO merit to it. When players role scum they don't suddenly forget how to understand arguments. If anything they are more keen to support poor arguments without much behind them. west9 vote was also terribad. Like out of all the people you can vote for you vote for the slot that just had a replacement and whose original player gave no information yet? No. That vote is a cop-out, and it is a bad move to make it the first lynch.

CoolDog: I'm of the mindset that the JohnnyFarrar wagon is scum motivated. And the fact that his reasoning seems to be the fact that JF thinks the aggression should be toned down (it should. Arguments and going head to head with someone is fine--getting angry is even okay--but personal attacks are never okay. And they are NOT town).

Also

part of my problem with this player can be found here. There is not even an implicit reason given for disliking certain posts AND there is an easy way out due to the very non-committal language.

I did it too. Why only look at Mainez? Asking someone to start doing something isn't indicative of alignment, especially when we have a player list that thus far seems to enjoy either floating around or making statements without accompanying explanations. Not my strongest scum read (I think BRO/TSQ interactions and dismissive attitude are bigger scumtells than a bad vote), but certainly someone worth pushing.

In summary: I don't think JohnnyFarrar or West9 should be lynched here. For West9, the wagon is getting formed on someone who is catching up to the game, and who replaced someone that seems to have signed up for a game when they had too many other games/things going on. For JohnnyFarrar, he's annoying but that isn't a reason to vote him.

unvote:vote:BROseidon

[ToastyToast]

I missed Kalimar. They are also null, wish they would provide more content.

[ToastyToast]

Stronger read

[ToastyToast]

I think I already explained why I think the vote/push on HydrogenWest is a bad one.

[ToastyToast]

and toast my vote isn't because it's a non-factor slot, i really don't care about that right now. do you disagree with my reasoning?

My impression of your case was that it is based on the lack of strong opinions/wishy-washy nature of hydragneafada. I think that behavior can just as easily come from someone who isn't interested in the game. Unless Hydraadfa has a history of replacing out of scum games, choosing to replace out of this one whilst staying in other just suggests she found this one the least stimulating.

[ToastyToast]

I think Toasty might be scum because he's responding to my play here really differently than I've seen him respond to it before, but I need to do some rereading to refresh my memory because I could be remembering some details wrong.

Is there a game in particular you are thinking of?

Also keep in mind that this is my first mafia game in about a year, so I don't really think I have an accurate meta.

[ToastyToast]

Isn't Jazz's "I don't like that my slot did this" some sort of named scumtell?
Also, NQT never really clarified this, if you could:
url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p6917330]I wouldn't ask but the statements were somewhat contradictory?[/url]

I don't have to work in the morning so I'm going to try to sit down and try to start some sort of discussion...does anyone have questions about my reads list?

No, but town are more likely to understand the train of thought that townies use to reach conclusions than scum are.

This is just fundamentally not true. Wouldn't scum have an easier time following train of thought, as they know whether or not that train of thought is accurate? On a related note, I've always found the mere idea of a town block to be scummy, as it creates a tyranny of the majority that could contain scum. To me, the attitude of "if someone doesn't understand my argument, there is a good chance their scum," is just a more subtle version of a town block mentality.

When questioned, Bro figuratively stated that I probably didn't understand him because I'm scum. That is not an argument that will either explain anything or garner votes and is really anitown play because it doesn't get his thoughts out there. how can we agree/disagree/have any conversation if he does so. You added something about information that wasn't even there. You changed the idea of what Bro said to give it a different spin. What even are you doing??

DING DING DING! NSQ thought his interpretation was filled with insight, but mine was a "strawman." I can't believe I didn't see this post because 1) everyone seems to be ignoring it, which is pretty telling in my opinion, and 2) confirms to me that Aristophanes isn't planning to just sit back for a while, which I would consider a scum-leaning behavior after being pressured heavily during the opening of the game.

West9 could be scum because of how the slot lurked and replaced out. Kind of felt like an "I'm scum and don't want to play" type of replace out, so that's something I want to see put under pressure and squirming a bit.

But what gives you this feeling? Reasoning is everything in an argument. Please try.

More tomorrow!

[ToastyToast]

The amount of content we have right now is vastly outweighing the discussion going on guys. I know we have a few days +replacements need to chime in, but a dull game will stay dull if everyone in it is being...you know...dull.

[ToastyToast]

Thanks. I remember it being right in a game I played a while back, but I thought that was a stupid reason.

[ToastyToast]

@BRO: I was on the defensive in Wicked mafia, so the situation is quite different. I still upheld that you claiming asking for answers was scummy in that game, but, as you say, there was wayyyy more information to go on, and way more reactions to form cases on.

[ToastyToast]

Not sure if I'm supposed to take west/JF's comments as a compliment or not but...thanks?

On the read list (which I think is townie)

1) I have the same reasons for not having a west push/lynch; I have a feeling they will start playing later
2) I don't have any problems with BRO as a person. In fact, looking back on my past games with him, I think what is setting me off is the pure lack of information. Usually BRO keeps explanations minimal, but still makes pushes backed up with reasoning. In this game it feels like he's trying to fake his town meta.
3) Mainez/West interaction: I would agree that the Mainez/Hydragena had a noteworthy narrow focus, but I chalked it up to past game history. Mainez/West I didn't really notice, but they are pushing one another for information. They definitely should be less self contained at this point though

@west:

how strong is your read on cooldog? You haven't said much about him before this vote beyond the "I never called Ari scummy" bit.

Toast, you wanted me to clarify two statements that TSQ made? I don't find them contradictory. He said he never fakeclaims and then he said he's claiming early to avoid the accusation of fakeclaiming. It was anti-town to claim, but his reasons stated (though inadequate) were consistent.

lol I made the same mistake you did. Meant to address TSQ/Jazz but abbreviations happened.
The reason why I feel they are inconsistent is that tsq first said "I never fake claim day 1 as scum, nor have I ever claimed unforced as scum" then said it wasn't a fake claim. Perhaps I am focusing in on the first part too much, but it seems sort of irrelevant if it wasn't a fake claim. Looking back on it, I think TSQ was just trying to say that his claim is null.

It would be nice to have some more dialogue before a lynch, but I sort of feel like the only lynch people are really considering is cooldog. I'm going to go re-look at the slot. As mentioned before, I feel that they are scummy, but they've been so far in the background that it would simply be untruthful if I said I have enough information to make that final judgement call.

[ToastyToast]

lynch happened? I was about to do my CoolDog ISO :/

[ToastyToast]

Well it's almost deadline so an increase in votes on the leading wagon is pretty normal actually.

And I know BRO probably isn't going to happen. But I'm not going to vote for cool dog just because most people want to.

[ToastyToast]

what did you get from your CooLDoG ISO?

CoolDog calls people out for buddying/sucking up when he does it himself. Also, the things he refers to as "buddying" are statements like "I think Beer is town"

Other than that there really is...not much. They don't seem to care about getting lynched, which makes it pretty annoying. I'd probably say the chance of him being scum is just a flat 50/50, which is actually decent odds considering the alternative no lynch.

[ToastyToast]

@Aristophanes: I don't think you would've gotten much attention this night, honestly. I personally just don't care one way or another with regards to your claim. It is one of those things that one can't derive much from without figuring out intent, much like the bulletproof claim.

PEDIT: I will hammer him if there isn't a response before I go to sleep.

[ToastyToast]

unvote:vote:cooldog

just in case

[ToastyToast]

So... are both TSQ and Johnny Bulletproof?
Or what?

most likely. there's no other situation I can think of. But, if we have multiple bulletproofs, I highly doubt they're all town.

[ToastyToast]

Any idea what a "conditional distraction" would do?

[ToastyToast]

Alright so, idk if any of you have ever seen my scum theory thingy, but I generally see scum as fitting one of 3 categories. More likely than not, there is one of each. The potential of a third party complicates this somewhat, but bear with me. Note that I'm putting everyone into groups. This is how I narrow down potential lynches (granted, I'm usually not so transparent on this, but I figure it could get conversation going again).

The Outspoken leader: at least one scum will feel like they NEED to talk a great deal in order to establish town cred. The people currently in this category are slim, thanks to the slow day one. Nonetheless, there are people who are pushing more than others.

-JohnnyFarrar, Jazzmyn/tsq, notquitehere, ToastyToast

The Sheep/Background Player: Tends to either be someone who always goes with the majority, or just pop in and out of conversations. Not one to force cases, but the first to agree. Scum in this category tend to buddy more than town players. I consider this different from active lurking

-BROseidon, Mainez, Varsoon/Domino,

The Lurker/LynchBait: This person goes WAY into the background OR gets used as an easy lynch that'll probably happen anyway. Scum will join this wagon in order to gain towncred. Can be very powerful in a situation with a lot of lurkers, as it is hard to point suspicion at any one person.

-West9/Hydrangea, Aristophanes (he was active at first, but I'd consider him a lurker at this point), Kalimar,

Also, I would almost guarantee that scum have at least one bulletproof fake claim, since we already know there are multiples (that can be killed).

Other things:
-Varsoon's claim makes me thing he's town. How often are scum given hated status? I've never seen it. If hated Scummie is a really rare occurrence, then that would leave BRO and Mainez alone in the sheep category
-Jazzmyn is making me feel slightly more comfortable with that slot, but I still would put them at the top of the "outspoken leader" grouping
-The people in the lurker group need to step up if they are town, and all need to get pushed.

[ToastyToast]

well, good turnout you all!

[ToastyToast]

Toast, interesting theory. How well has it held out in previous games?

Well I'm rarely this transparent about it so it could turn out differently, but I tend to figure out 2/3rds of a given scum team? Which is why I think the model works way better after getting at least one scum lynch. Before that, there is too much specualtion.

I've seen worse theories. That said, the "scum theory thingy" you've described appears equally applicable to townies, so I am not sure how much utility it has beyond simply characterizing players as either being active, following others, or deliberately lurking. If you intended it to mean more than that, then please elaborate.

It is equally applicable townies, but it is a theory about group dynamics. So I separated the players into 3 groups. A scum team will never have 3 active, agenda setting players. They will never all treat one another as easy lynches to gain town cred, and they will never all sheep.

Why?

Well, having three people on a team going balls to the wall in a game will lead them to conflict when they should be working together. Consequently, such a strategy would make risk outweigh reward.
Generally, when leadership is established within a group, others will fill in to supportive roles rather than attempt to challenge that leadership.

You can't have any followers or sheep without a leader. Additionally, having three from this team means scum would never be able to force an agenda. That gives way too much power to the town. So, someone is bound to step up (but followers also have the ability to "lead" in much more stealthy ways).

And if you have 3 scum lurking, the game will stagnate. The only way it works is if nearly everyone is a lurker (unfortunately, this game does give me those vibes sometimes). At some point, a lurker will get targeted, and if they flip scum, you have to look at the reactions and interactions with that lynch. Scum are going to be more than willing to get someone in this category lynched because they contribute little to the team anyway, and towncred will become more important than somehow keeping that member alive.

In conclusion:

JohnnyFarrar, Jazzmyn/tsq, notquitehere is definitely not the scum team
Neither is BROseidon, Mainez, Varsoon/Domino
-West9/Hydrangea, Aristophanes, Kalimar would be a very dysfunctional scum team if it exists.

Even though it is risky thanks to lack of information, I think it would be best to figure out who within the lurkers is the scummiest. This is mostly because they are killing this game anyway.

[ToastyToast]

@Varsoon: What are your thoughts on Kalimar?

[ToastyToast]

@Big if you tell me something super convincing about Toast between now and next time I look at this you'll get a nice loud sheep.

People can suspect me if they want, but this is just...yikes.
If you suspect me, just say it rather than hide behind someone else.

Also who are you and what did you do to JohnnyFarrar?

[ToastyToast]

Scum isn't Mainez because Big has meta. So that wagon is obviously down to West9, NQH, Kalimar. It definitely wasn't an all town wagon. Our vote is in a good spot.

This I agree with. Do you think votes like Kalimar's, which was done right before deadline/we were running out of time, is any more/less scummy than votes with more reasoning?

[ToastyToast]

I've been on a gaming binge. Will post today

[ToastyToast]

He shut down arguments that were likely to go nowhere and tried to start/push things he thought were better routes.
Trying not to bog down the thread with deadend arguments where nobody will be convinced either way is more town than you give it credit for.

When did this happen? Calling people stupid doesn't mean this ever happened.

This is fair dinkum but I've seen scum in the past use similarly impartial sounding theories to get away with voting for people based just on patterns. You could be telling the truth with your pattern as scum (it's easier to play honestly) and still get all the mislynches you need to win.

I agree though that it's most pro-game to lynch the scummiest of the lurkers. With that in mind...

But I'm not solely relying on theory to lynch people...if anything it is just a guideline on who NOT to lynch. Still needs all the scumhunting to work.

*Can someone explain to me why Kalimar over West? Is it because he started talking after I told the lurkers they needed to start talking?

You did though. You voted in a response to cooldog talking about the vote he made on you about the RVS thing. Why not vote for him in the responses you gave at 45, 83, or when you gave him a scumread at 188? It's not like you were doing anything with your vote at any of those times.

That said, I do like this current line of questioning. They actually put effort into the case and found something no one really noticed.

I'd say that this was fine, but you put him at L-1. That kind of hurts the whole "I was just asking him a question" reasoning.

I think people are forgetting we were out of time. The CD lynch had to be done, with or without a claim from him.

2. i have offered content and rationale about johnny town read, aris lean town and west9 scum read. not pretending i'm even batting close to my best town game here, but saying i have given no content or rationale is simply not true.

The content has been mimimal regardless. This isn't about quote walls, its about participating.

oddly, i'd actually think the odds are higher of two scum off the wagon in this instance, purely because this wagon was so ubiquitously endorsed that it'd be almost toxic to be on. that's if there are 3 scum. if it's 2, then one on, one off, with SK positioning being an enigma. from experience i'd say it's slightly higher SK would be in the non-voting cohort {jazz, varsoon, aris} in that instance. wouldn't bank anything on it, though, and can't currently tell which scenario we're in.

and whoever asked for my reads, they haven't changed.

mostly everyone else is in a morass. i mean, i'd like to guess, but i actually just don't have reads on most players in this game. west9 + one in {toast/bro-slot} and one in {jazz/var/aris} is about as good a guess as i can make right now.

+scumpoints

How does this logic make sense? If a wagon is ubiquitously endorsed, that means scum can hide in the majority. In my experience, staying off a wagon that most people agree with--regardless of the flip--end up making those people a target. Not to mention that this post discounts the fact that plenty of the people off the wagon were more than willing to vote for CoolDog (myself included).

Where does this "one of toast/bro" thing come from?

I think that I may have been appeased by the amusing, kinder, and gentler persona of the replacement player, Big the Cat. I do not like abrasive, arrogant, obnoxious, rude play styles (such as was displayed by BROseiden) so it is entirely possible that the more pleasant play style of Big the Cat led me to disregard my previous scum read on that particular player slot.

In addition, as a result of my most recent re-read, I realize that I am struggling somewhat with trying to get firm reads on people. As mentioned when I replaced in, I have been away for quite a while and I'm rusty. I am hoping to improve this and get back to my stride before too long.

Can you explain this "vibe" you are getting? I agree that BigCat is way less offputting than BROseidon, but is that really enough to change a scum suspect? They need to have done something to change your mind. Or are you saying that your original read may have been based on your dislike for his style of play?

To those who have mentioned suspecting me:

Stop setting me up for a Day 3 lynch and question me

now

. What do you want me to answer to? I can't do anything if you guys just throw out random suspicions without backing them up.

[ToastyToast]

What do yooo thinkies about NotQuiteThere?

Well I've already explained my town read on him in D1, but I'll check to see if there is any new content on him. NQT more than anyone tried to address more than just a couple of people, showing to me that he wasn't leaving any stones unturned. I especially liked his push on Domino (granted, him following up with "im in the middle on him" was mehh). We haven't seen much of him Day 2.

Hot damn do mafiascum days last long. I'll do a read list when I get back to this a bit later today, but seriously Jazzmin, JohnnyFarrar, Mainez, and ToastyToast should stop wasting everybody's time and cast their votes already.

No. I want to vote Kalimar, but this situation is too similar to the CoolDog lynch atm. Everyone is just sort of deferring to a Kalimar lynch instead of weighing other potential options. We have four days, and everyone should be using them to do just that.

Alright so, idk if any of you have ever seen my scum theory thingy, but I generally see scum as fitting one of 3 categories. More likely than not, there is one of each.

I disagree with this.

It's also like saying, more likely than not one scum is on the D1 mislynch wagon, and one scum is off. Or things of that nature. It's just a shitty way to scumhunt in my opinion, because you limit your options of who scum could be by assuming they are 1 of each in three pools.

Yes I am clearly such a lazy player. Using a theory that works for me as a backbone for making cases and figuring out scum teams is super lazy. Maybe I should just never give a single case, and just spout out names in list form without explanation. Maybe I should just call people stupid if I don't like what they have to say. That's really active--oh wait, that's what BigCat/BROseidon have done this entire game.

Your view of what I'm doing with this is incredibly simplistic.
1) I'm not just throwing people into 3 piles then random.orging it. Once those groups are defined, I push cases to determine which of the three is scummiest. I also take into account situations where it isn't true. If, for example, Kalimar flips scum, I'm not going to suddenly call West9 obvtown. Mafia has no absolutes, only chance. And the

chance

of them being scum together is significantly lower than other potential pairings.
2) The odds of 3 people from one of the groups is miniscule. And you disagreeing with me on this is irrelevant to alignment. I use it every game I'm in.
3)

Groups do not function well with 3 leaders.

The scum teams that function best have a group willing to take a variety of roles. That way, they are never completely pinned down.
4) If your strategy is to just point at people without using some sort of strategy that pinpoints scum, then you might as well just be shooting blind.

[ToastyToast]

In other news, I've decided that Jazzmyn is town.

[ToastyToast]

@Toast I used the sheep excuse d1 as well, why is it suddenly a problem when you're the target?

What are you talking about? Don't put words in my mouth.

[ToastyToast]

Because I don't have anything else to add on NQT. If I were to make a long post about him, it'd be pure bullshit.

In addition, however, the wagon on him contains the two people I'm considering voting for and an irrelevant.

[ToastyToast]

@johnny: I don't think sheeping is a good strategy in any scenario, but that quote by you was in particular very opportunistic.
@nqt: they are on my scum team, but the lurk is strong in this game, which makes me think one of them has to be scum.

I have more to say but on my phone atm.

[ToastyToast]

Because I don't have anything else to add on NQT. If I were to make a long post about him, it'd be pure bullshit.

In addition, however, the wagon on him contains the two people I'm considering voting for and an irrelevant.

what does this actually mean? especially the part about you writing a pure bullshit post.

I'm not going to write a long post just because someone asks me to. I'm going to write what I have to say on the question, and nothing more on it. Doing so would mean adding a bunch of bullshit just to appease the Big Cat.

I get Big's "scum on the wagon" voting tactic right now, I just don't see why it's Kalimer over NotQuiteThere. I think NQT's brand of blowing things out of proportion combined with the myriad 'misunderstandings' and the subpar "these people aren't doing anything" votes make me WAY more willing to vote him.

Where has NQT ever blown something out of proportion?

I mean, I hate-hate-hate the late jump onto CooLDoG, but that's that.

Would you have preferred a no lynch?

Hey! I have a Fun Idea!

Let's get both Alien Man and Invisible Man to claim, teehee~


That should be Very Exciting!

If they are naughty, we spanky~~

~Big

Yeah, fuck it. Let's get this one to claim instead.

Vote: Big The Cat

And people aren't doing anything. That's just a fact.

[ToastyToast]

Oh, that last line was supposed to be a continued response to the Johnny quote on NQT.

[ToastyToast]

ooop, game opened. Will catch up now and post my thoughts as I go.

@Varsoon: Why the switch to NQT? Didn't you think his wagon was shitty yesterday?
-I don't understand the lie detector thing, but I'm sure I'll learn role things soon.

D'Oh! But I got roleblocked last night

So...not sure if I should say this, but my night action has failed two nights in a row. What makes you think you were roleblocked?

Fact: Only Immortals in the setting can eat Immortals. Fact: my town win-con says to defeat all threats to town, not just the mafia. Conjecture: there is an immortal serial killer who is eating other immortals (and maybe gaining their memories/powers?)

Yeah, I definitely think it is a serial killer at work here. Szilard fits the flavor of one perfectly as well.

I've chosen to believe him so far because of the specificity of his crumb in regards to me, explicitly. It was very much a means of indicating only to me that he had a potentially investigative role.

In what scenario is a role cop something you would unvote someone for? It is a role that scum have more often, and certainly isn't indicative of town status.

So long as I'm alive, certain town powers work.

If that's the case, then why are multiple powers aren't working? sigh...

After we talk about roles for a minute I'm probably going to suggest voting Toast, West, or Mainez.

Why? I still haven't seen a single reason for suspicion on me, and if you think you're going to get me mislynched without any effort, you have another thing coming.

As for the other two, when you lynch a lurker and it flops, you don't just go down the list and hope something sticks.

[ToastyToast]

Should I just claim? I feel like everyone has at this point.

[ToastyToast]

I'm Nice, Vanillarsonist. Which is a modified Vanillaizer. I have to "prime" people first for it to work. BROseidon was N1, Varsoon N2.
I think if it were deflected, it would probably still say that my action was successful?

[ToastyToast]

(I assume you are saying Bro was primed, so became vanilla the next (last) night?)

No, the prime on Bro failed too.
I need to "prime" a target before it works. So, if I prime 3 people 3 nights in a row, then I can choose to make all three vanilla night 4. But apparently my power is 100% useless with all these strange claims.

[ToastyToast]

Not too sure how/why a survivor has so much killing power. In my mind, that sounds much more like a launcher/SK who only needs to kill a select group of people.

[ToastyToast]

Lyncher* oops

[ToastyToast]

Big, West and Toast: what reasons did you have for picking your night targets?

Because BRO/Big was/is my biggest scum read. Varsoon because I wasn't too confident on him and wanted to see if it would remove the "hated" status.

[ToastyToast]

I think we should lynch one of Big/West. They have the scummiest roles and neither are anywhere close to being a town read for me.
Do you guys think scum would have 1 investigate, 1 protective? Or is it too messy to set up speculate in this set up?

[ToastyToast]

I think johnny is trying to reach his winning today--whatever that may be. I think he could be a modified sk because it sounds like his win on would be to kill all immortals. In any case, if we believe that at least one immortal is scum, it wouldn't hurt to keep him. This is tough.

[ToastyToast]

that post is gross.

No, we're not lyncher nqt.

[ToastyToast]

Also, why have you changed your mind like 20 times in the last 2 pages?

[ToastyToast]

lynching*

[ToastyToast]

Will post with more when I get back from work, but preferring that big cat lynch atm

[ToastyToast]

Toast/Aristo/West
I'm sure none of you want to drag out the day for the full two weeks, and you can't all be scum... Do you have any more considerations to make or are you ready to cast your votes?

To summarize my thoughts:

vote: Big the Cat

[ToastyToast]

I need a little bit more time before I vote, mostly because A) I think that NQT is a good lynch but I'm afraid he might be enabling my roleblock and B) this Big lynch is starting to feel like the Kalimar lynch in terms of everyone just being okay to default on it.

There's a difference. Big has been suspected since Day 1 and keeps avoiding lynch.

[ToastyToast]

Oh! I was really impressed that Toast's Leader/Sheep/Lurker theory was 100% spot on. If he'd have revisited that on the last day and took it seriously, he'd have realised that by process of elimination I was the Leader-scum.

+1 on this. I spent most of that day trying to get out of the lurker pile.

Yeah it works but I got wayyy to tunnel visioned on a Cat lynch, and I think you guys recognized that and capitalized on it.
Part of my revealing that was to see who changed their game afterwards, and target those as scum. But no one seemed to buy into it and I got worried about targetting just lurkers.

Also, nqt, you got me sooo far up you butt day one that I wasn't ready to consider the alternative

well played though, scum. Wish town had conversed more because we would have been able to connect more dots, I think.

[ToastyToast]

@cheery: I just feel that the fact that my power didn't even get a prime once sort of shows off the power imbalance here.

[ToastyToast]

SO MEAN

[ToastyToast]

this is why I policy lynch roleblockers after day 3 lol

[ToastyToast]

? No?