Touhou UPick 2 - [Game Over]

[Kagami]

One possibility is that there wasn't an obvious viable mislynch at the time.

Another is that magua didn't realize that voting such would lead to the point I made about it being essentially a 1v1.

[Kagami]

Because that's a very unlikely setup decision to make.

[Kagami]

Emperically

[Kagami]

So then you and victor the only non-conf town?

[Kagami]

If you and varsoon are town, why did gaiden die?

[Kagami]

I already told you my theory.

[Kagami]

Pretty hard to imagine scum with a non-youkai multi-NK. You'd have to assume he was lying, but he set that up incredibly well. There was no way gaiden could have been scum.

[Kagami]

But that wasn't the known town consensus. I suppose it's possible that the SK didn't think of that himself, but I think it's more likely that gaiden was shot defensively.

[Kagami]

Also, non-investigation-immune Varsoon makes it very strange that nothing happened to Sakura night 1.

[Kagami]

Someone killed pie instead of sakura.

[Kagami]

I have trouble believing that town-you would find herself in LyLo with fully formed reads that look like this.

You say this, but you're voting town who can't possibly be lynched if scum, while I'm advocating a scum-lynch.

[Kagami]

Worse still, you seem to think magua is scum as well.

[Kagami]

So apparently scum are only afraid of guilties... and like killing random players who have no known role over a confirmed cop.

[Kagami]

It's possble, but that just implies GIF SK, and of the three uncertain slots, GIF's play is my favorite.

[Kagami]

So you think town are you, victor, varsoon, vezok.

GIF is SK, rest are scum.

and I have a provable vote manipulation that I used on my partner.

[Kagami]

the gamestate is pretty small. If you are town and victor is a bet-the-farm townread, you necessarily have a small set of possible alignment combinations, which you should be trying to work out.

p-edit: nothing yet. I can move magua's vote, that's all.

[Kagami]

2593, though I thought I saw it somewhere else too.

[Kagami]

Why don't you move Magua's vote? How long does this last?

Just instantaneous. The only real utility is to force a hammer, which is only really useful as town in lylo.

[Kagami]

Sure, it would be great if I were scum.

[Kagami]

But then I wouldn't have claimed miller, since I'd really want to be alive in lylo.

[Kagami]

keep what a secret? I was keeping it secret, but was getting accused of being too secretive.

[Kagami]

But then I wouldn't have claimed miller, since I'd really want to be alive in lylo.

Do you think claimed millers actually get policy lynched before LyLo?

If there weren't an SK, seems like something that's reasonable to do.

[Kagami]

I didn't hint at the vote-manipulation in the slightest until just now, which is arguably past-lylo, depending on whether or not the SK makes a good decision.

[Kagami]

It's relevant, because if I were actually scum, I would have carefully used it to prevent the possibility of my being lynched (by sticking a vote to victor).

[Kagami]

What?

[Kagami]

If I were scum, I would have saved the boo and used it defensively. As town, my hope was to hit vezok and be able to force him to be useful.

[Kagami]

It's relevant, because if I were actually scum, I would have carefully used it to prevent the possibility of my being lynched (by sticking a vote to victor).

Why did you claim it now?

Because it's relevant to my defense.

[Kagami]

It's relevant, because if I were actually scum, I would have carefully used it to prevent the possibility of my being lynched (by sticking a vote to victor).

Wouldn't that just make you obviously scum?

In this particular case, no, because victor is scum.

[Kagami]

lylo/xylo/whatever happened way sooner than I'd ever expect in a game this size.

If any player other than yourself gets to L-2 then you can hammer them, correct?

Except victor, since magua is already voting him.

[Kagami]

no, consumes a card

[Kagami]

I'm around, not much has happened to change my opinion.

Normally, I'd agree with you that an innocent is an innocent, vezok, but when scum choose have chosen to kill players like mala and gaiden over Varsoon, I think a healthy dose of skepticism is required. If it weren't for your continued defense of victor, I'd have already stuck my vote there, and the only reason that gives me pause is the possibility that you have knowledge I don't that would come from the fact that you two seem to know each other. Also, from non-vezok town perspective, there are only two town cards to give out, and handing one to varsoon leaves some strange scum-scum interactions.

I continue to think last night's kills were bizarre. Scum didn't target sakura (who was very obvious town, thoroughly unlynchable, and a strong, infinite-shot PR), they didn't target Vezok (IC), they didn't target Varsoon (cop inno'd).

I think Gaiden was killed for his non-youkai killing ability (implicating Nacho or Varsoon), though Nacho does offer a reasonable alternative possibility that the SK was aiming for scum. Either way, Gaiden was likely the SK kill and thus mala-slot was the scum kill. But look at mala's wagon from yesterday: vezokpiraka, Varsoon, VictorDeAngelo. If all three are town, then why on earth would scum kill such an easy-to-mislynch slot?

[Kagami]

Well I waited for Magua and he's done naught this that post yesterday afternoon but neither has Kagami. Assuming there isn't about to yet another replacement I think I'm ready to vote.

VOTE: Kagami

How are people townreading this slot -_____-

[Kagami]

VOTE: Victor

[Kagami]

If he did what I think he did, he scum-claimed.

[Kagami]

I suspect he froze only vezok's vote to you.

I imagine the icy folk are immune to it.

[Kagami]

He wouldn't have voted me first if his own vote was frozen, and feirei had already demonstrated that he's immune to varsoon's passive vote freeze.

The votes on me are likely unaffected. I would imagine the only vote that was influenced is vezok's.

[Kagami]

Anyway, no reason to speculate too much until FG arrives.

[Kagami]

Cause wagon.
There are more votes on kagami than magua and both are scum.

ffery vote for kagami please.

I think you have a line of communication with Victor that he is using to deceive you.

[Kagami]

I wouldn't have surprised magua if we were scumbuddies, vezok.

[Kagami]

i was gonna ask you to verify that you can actually do what you said you could but then i remembered frozen cards so :<

Even if I were scum, I wouldn't have made up such an ability for fear that I'd be asked to verify it.

This is not a 1v1 between me and victor. As long as vezok keeps his mind open, we're still ok. Varsoon's is the vote I'm more mystified about.

[Kagami]

'cus I wanted to lock down my scum-reads.
Also, yeah, I'm not so thrilled to do/primarily rely on setup speculation in a Fakegod game.

Do you know why I was scumreading you early in day 1, varsoon?

[Kagami]

kagami, do you see Magua's freak-out as something coming from scum?

That could go either way, imo, it looked slightly artificial to me at the time, but I generally like magua's posting since then.

[Kagami]

also i just realised there's 2 days to deadline and i don't even know if nacho and victor are still around

No Lynch is not terrible. Scum still want to crosskill, and we're relying on them doing so regardless.

Lynching groupscum would likely be better, since it means we aren't relying on the SK's shot, but in the current situation, I'm not very confident that will happen.

Depending on the SK's identity and abilities, lynching groupscum might actually incentivize him/her into aiming for town. If that's the case, then any lynch is a bad lynch.

[Kagami]

3-2-1 won't be that much better. And that's assuming best shots. Actually 4-2 would be best shots, but that's just super lucky.

zmuffin please vote kagami, varsoon please do the same.
It's pretty clear now that the scum team is ffery, kagami, magua.

4-2 is very likely. I suspect scum have a good idea who the SK is.

[Kagami]

There is such a world. A world in which Victor is scum, which happens to also be the real world.

Varsoon is not town. Town varsoon would not be voting for me; town-varsoon would have me as conf-town since day 1. The only real question re:varsoon is whether he's SK or not. If he were SK, it would still make no sense to vote me, but if he's group-scum, then FG put a godfather in the game or worse yet, made Sakura's ability able to be manipulated without her knowledge.

Do you actually have a reason for town-reading Victor?

[Kagami]

You mean magua, who I considered scum more or less throughout the final day? I was sure muffin was scum too, since town muffin would have been railing on the IC all of day 3; and also knew that varsoon was scum. I just thought FG wouldn't make an investigation immune scum, so figured he had to be SK, which left victor as scum and the only scum I had position to lynch.

[Kagami]

I don't think town had a lot of power. Much of what we had was powerful on paper, but wildly anti-town given that the scum had two godfathers (a role that I don't think should ever be seen outside of open setups).

[Kagami]

If you "caught" him, why did you waste your vig on someone who was blatantly obvtown, vezok?

Because she attacked Victor, whom he mysteriously knew to be town.

[Kagami]

You're underestimating the power of getting an investigation on a godfather, which was extremely likely in this setup. Usually that alone means scum wins, unless town has a reason to believe there is a godfather (which we didn't).

[Kagami]

Magua was also a godfather if he wanted to be (which is exactly what would have happened if he were investigated by sakura).

Godfathers who get investigated can get lynched, sure, but in a game where we only get three lynches? And there's also no "why isn't the conf-town NKed yet?" since there are so many pseudo-ICs who are reasonable targets.


In any case, I feel like I deserve a good portion of the blame for the loss. I really, really shouldn't have voted/pushed victor, but I didn't realize why until halfway through the final day when I was already stuck on him. Varsoon's perfect freeze was a key move, since otherwise magua-lynch would likely have happened.

[Kagami]

Oh, btw, I didn't block magua last night because I believed there was an SK. There was no reason to stop potential mafia (or potential SK even) from making a kill.

[Kagami]

Neighborhoods are like the best thing that happened since introduction of PRs to Mafia.

Neighborhoods are one thing that Forum Mafia can do well that F2F Mafia cannot do well.

Neighborhoods are the greatest things ever.

I love neighborhoods.

I fear you've nerfed your neighborhoods forever, though :<