Touhou UPick 4 - [Aborted]

[Kagami]

I want everyone to claim how many

Day-use

cards they have. I don't care about night-cards.

My daycard gives me reason to believe the number of daycards that scum have is drawn from a different distribution than scum. I also have a relevant ability. I would be very surprised if there's harm in claiming the number for town.

I'll start: I have one Day-use card.

[Kagami]

Gaiden, can you make a hood with me?

[Kagami]

i doubt sakura is getting lynched today even if she were scum

yep.

[Kagami]

I have bork and shadoweh for town, biased toward town on thugkiddums for reasons outside of play.

[Kagami]

I have weaker opinions on other people.

I find it odd that you already had an answer for how your role would be possible as scum, but presented it as impossible.

[Kagami]

Gaiden is a read I generally keep under my hat if you were interested in that one specifically, btw.

[Kagami]

Maybe!

[Kagami]

I guess koishi.

[Kagami]

meh, muffin seems town anyway.

[Kagami]

Presumably a reaction to GiF's guessing game.

I'm guessing Ran myself, as obvious an answer as that seems.

Yep. As it stands, I have no party to attend.

[Kagami]

He's asking about yukari because yukari was scum in the past two games and held a very powerful scum-role.

[Kagami]

Does your super-hatedness go away?

[Kagami]

Does your super-hatedness go away?

Not yet convinced I want to talk about this, sorry.

May I ask if it's tied to a flavor you expect to be in the game?

[Kagami]

Anyway, to answer your question, yes.

I have a triple-vote, might be me.

[Kagami]

meh, muffin seems town anyway.

at what point did you start thinking this

You're behaving in ways that are inconsistent with your approach to games as scum, and I don't intend to flesh this out.

There's also very little reason to scumread you in this position even if I thought you were scum, which I'm somewhat surprised is not the first explanation you'd infer.

[Kagami]

I like kilg so far, but as an FYI: if I die and he stops being hated as a result, he's scum. It will be pretty clear why.

[Kagami]

VOTE: feysal

[Kagami]

Don't get behind it, the two of us would be L-2.

[Kagami]

As I said earlier, I'm a triple voter. You're a quad-voter iirc?

[Kagami]

Or I'm confusing that you had 4 votes from muffin.

[Kagami]

Laziness is exactly why a feysal vote is a good one.

[Kagami]

Feysal is a solid player and doesn't need a low bar.

[Kagami]

It's more that (a) I don't think Feysal is going to change their posting habits based on that vote, and (b) a Feysal vote implies you've seen nothing else voteworthy in the 270-odd posts since the game began.

I grant that I could very well be wrong about (a) - I still have little-to-no clue what the ethos is like here, so maybe lurkers do get jump-started by getting voted - but I'd be surprised if I was.

I disagree on both counts.

Regarding (a), lurkers do get jump-started, because lynches here typically occur very near deadline on Day 1 and are decided among whichever wagons seem viable. A player who has a few votes on them around midday becomes very vulnerable to compromise/counterwagon votes as deadline looms, so people tend to try to keep wagon-momentum off themselves.

In any case, Feysal isn't a lurker. From my limited experience/meta-diving, she's a competent town player who generally has worthwhile insights to share, which we haven't yet seen here.

As for (b), not posting is more death-worthy than anything in thread thus far. I have a couple scumreads among those who have been posting, but I'd much rather lynch among those who aren't. I have absolutely no problem lynching at least one player in this list even with a null read.

[Kagami]

They're neighbors, ns and pie always pick the same flavors and I can guess Sakura's as well.

I'm only surprised bork isn't hanging out there too.

[Kagami]

Maybe I should have picked China.

[Kagami]

It really shouldn't be here.

[Kagami]

fixt, it seems.

[Kagami]

He seems like he was actually confused about the pile-on, which would be less likely as scum given that most configurations would have certainly communicated about the SDM. If he was faking that, I don't think he'd openly speculate that it was neighborhood related, but idk.

[Kagami]

I hope Sakura's your neighbor cuz otherwise u literally did not make that vote until you knew somebody else was willing to vote me lol

I wanna be like "get the fuck @ me" but probably this means people are town-reading you for out of thread-reasons? which means I don't even know. @Sakura: c/d if this is the case and elaborate?

[Kagami]

I think his reaction is earnest regardless of his alignment, so I'm not sure any of that is indicative. He doesn't really know why he's being voted.

[Kagami]

I don't think he's scum for it.

Clearly, he's been playing mostly within his hood, and apparently his neighbors think he's town.

[Kagami]

I'm thinking that it would be strange for ns-scum to be pursuing a strategy of exclusively interacting with two players who are highly familiar with his play as both scum and town.

[Kagami]

Just waiting for Feysal and being sad that there's no party.

[Kagami]

Ftr i didn't start in that neighborhood, i was neighborized.

Was it ns or pie who invited you?

[Kagami]

I imagine in the typical way, that only the gladiated players and possibly No Lynch can receive votes.

[Kagami]

and himself, of course, or it wouldn't be fun!

[Kagami]

Oh that reminds me, i did use a spellcard, i wonder if ppl know who i am now.

I had completely forgotten about that, I was just thinking you were sakuya.

[Kagami]

All jokes and potential crumbing aside though, anyone tell me of they're townreading kagami and why.

You should invite me to your hood. I want to talk to Gaiden, and we can sort this out.

[Kagami]

Just waiting for Feysal and being sad that there's no party.

Waiting for what exactly? I don't think I missed a question from you or anything.

I'm burdening you with a level of proficiency greater than what I'm seeing, that's all.

[Kagami]

Town-point for feysal though:

The obvious reason muff's role isn't OP as town is that scum probably has cards that can kill as a replacement for the lack of NK. Feysal ignoring that possibility may imply that she legit thinks this is a psuedo-nightless (with that flip-side that if it is, it's evidence that feysal is scum).

bah, hydrae.

[Kagami]

If you're scum, you're simply lying about the role.

[Kagami]

(Which is also kind of dumb)

[Kagami]

Shrug, I still think this is getting more attention than it deserves.

[Kagami]

I think you were supposed to use that on shadoweh.

[Kagami]

It was definitely intended to be used on shadoweh.

[Kagami]

Feysal, can you please provide a readslist? I would like to be given reason to vote elsewhere.

[Kagami]

Interesting.

[Kagami]

Do you have a specific reason for that?

[Kagami]

Care to share?

[Kagami]

All jokes and potential crumbing aside though, anyone tell me of they're townreading kagami and why.

You should invite me to your hood. I want to talk to Gaiden, and we can sort this out.

Not happening.

This makes it sound like you straight-up don't want me there, rather than there being a technical limitation.

[Kagami]

Plus I already used my shot.

Hmm. I'm hoping you used it on gaiden so I can shelve my recent hypothesis.

[Kagami]

I don't understand how anyone could possibly think I'm a reasonable vote.

[Kagami]

UNVOTE:

Let's move on for now.

Gaiden, did GiF invite you to his hood?

[Kagami]

Thug - Leaning scum. I don't like his cases for shutting down discussion, and ignoring Sakura Hana saying she could be confirmed.

I like thugkuddums so far.

[Kagami]

nope
i do want someone to say "Hey Gaiden, join our hood so you won't be lonely"
then again, the main thread is open tonight so it isn't extremely necessary.

Why didn't you think GiF would take me in after I asked for an invite?

[Kagami]

I meant, why did you ask for permission to join the SDM hood while there was potentially a chance for us all to hang out in GiF's hood?

[Kagami]

I thought he was enthusiastically inviting you o.o

[Kagami]

Kagami, why the unvote?

While I don't think a pile of X-leans is particularly impressive, I think the expectation of action that the vote represented remains without it.

I'm concerned about gaiden as well.

[Kagami]

Gaiden's initial apparent interest in neighborizing with me gives him town-points to my mind, but I'm concerned that he abandoned it so readily. His explanation regarding the GiF hood seems reasonable, but that's really all there is to go on atm.

Katsuki is unburdened by lack of proficiency, he deliberately cultivates a meta that makes his scum-game more comfortable. I see something that might be a town-signal in there, anyway.

Going to defer to others' opinion on sky_pal and choco for now. Choco lynch seems reasonable to me.

I don't really think relentless seems scummy at all?

[Kagami]

I've made something of a point not to mention bork and shadow after 178, a post which I regard as an error, not so much because I'm concerned about bork's lack of content, but rather the immediate reciprocal read here:

I have bork and shadoweh for town,
biased toward town on thugkiddums for reasons outside of play.

explain no Kagami - I think that opening has a specific goal and I think scum would be worried about a locked in plan like that biting them in the ass if the gamestate evolves in an unexpected way.

I don't think this is an especially good reason; my opening is kind of objectively scummy in a naive environment and certainly within the realm of my scumplay. It looks like a reaction to the townread.

Out of the people left, Kagami, Gaiden and GiF are more null reads because I can't read them based on Day 1 play.

Kagami seems town to me, I just don't trust myself to actually get a good read on her.

I don't have any specific objections here, but it's a very delayed reaction from someone who I expected would be more interested in interacting with me.

[Kagami]

I'm more or less agreeing with zmuff re: reads, with the caveat that I'd rather give Gaiden time.

[Kagami]

I also think that scum are generally going to have more daycards, but bork can probably only use one per Day phase, so idk.

[Kagami]

role PM.

[Kagami]

What does Gaiden need time for?

Given sufficient content, I usually have a pretty easy time sorting through where gaiden is going as town, which is often a different place than scum-gaiden despite his best efforts.

[Kagami]

I also think that scum are generally going to have more daycards, but bork can probably only use one per Day phase, so idk.

why do you think this?

role PM.

It's a little more subtle than that, if my FG-psychology is correct, but as a blanket statement, more cards is probably true.

[Kagami]

I'd rather wait on feysal as well until it's known whether or not scum have NKs.

[Kagami]

I think there's a possibility we're looking at a nightless-like setup where most of the killing power is in town's hands, which I would view as highly incriminating toward feysal.

In the more likely scenario that scum has some number of killing spell-cards, Feysal's earlier state of mind would be more town-suggestive.

[Kagami]

Town-point for feysal though:

The obvious reason muff's role isn't OP as town is that scum probably has cards that can kill as a replacement for the lack of NK. Feysal ignoring that possibility may imply that she legit thinks this is a psuedo-nightless (with that flip-side that if it is, it's evidence that feysal is scum).

[Kagami]

I think I'm basically an innocent child because if I were scum, the game would literally already be over.

While this topic has already been extensively discussed by Bork and others, I have to say I hated this statement. MuffinMan seems to imagine himself indestructible here, which is of course incorrect, since he should expect other players to have abilities to counter his, and lack of factional kill does not equal no kills. This saw also cuts both ways, since if he truly were indestructible the game would be over either way, since he could single-handedly lynch everyone else and win the game for his team. I see no reason to town read him for this, and anyone who does is not thinking clearly.

Consider what would happen when the town gets smaller and MuffinMan remains alive. With nine players remaining he becomes unlynchable, since if he permanently requires four extra votes to lynch, eight players cannot do it, not with single votes anyway. With seven players remaining he could lynch anyone and everyone by himself. Does anyone think such an overpowered role could be in the game unless other players had the means to stop him?

Fortunately this is not something we need to worry about now. If he is town, there is no way scum can afford not to deal with him, so we can simply wait and see.

Misread this a bit, but that's reasonable since it doesn't represent a terribly consistent thought process. The penultimate sentence of paragraph suggests town-muffin autowins, though other sentences take the possibility of his being killed into account.

[Kagami]

of the first paragraph*

[Kagami]

I wish people who don't want to lynch Feysal would actually explain why they don't want to lynch Feysal. because everybody who doesn't want to lynch Feysal hasn't explained why they don't want to lynch Feysal.

Kagami, how does Feysal's state of mind suggest town if scum have kills? if it's worth anything, I firmly believe scum's got some form of NK ability. but I have a wacky killing ability myself too so Who Knows (would not be surprised if it was just strewn across both sides)

I had misremembered the relevant post a bit, I had for some reason thought that there was less of a waffly assertion that town-muffin would auto-win because scum can't get rid of him.

In any case, it sounds like GiF has role-based reason to think Fey is town.

[Kagami]

Choco lynch has appeal.

[Kagami]

I'm not really sure that's reason to think choco is scum.

[Kagami]

re:sky_pal

[Kagami]

Is there a meta-reason to think scum-choco would believe he'd be able to be active, but then have a hard time doing so?

[Kagami]

Of course he was popular in mafia school, did you not notice the slick shades?

[Kagami]

@bork: Daycard speculation only separates out a subset of players that there is probably exactly one scum among, and I don't think it's worth talking about today.

As I said before, I assume you can only use one card per day which makes you different enough that it may be unimportant.

[Kagami]

No, I thought it was bork for flavor reasons. 7 days in the week and all.

[Kagami]

Apparently.

[Kagami]

Gaiden/Kagami/Muffin not voting because their votedicks are too big

o.o

I'd like to give bork another day. Given what he's recently said, I can use my highly-conditional card to sort him out tomorrow.

VOTE: Chocola

[Kagami]

I'm kind of surprised that none of those seven cards is worth using on Day 1.

[Kagami]

also willing to vote feysal or shadoweh.

I don't really think the meh-ness of any reasonable lynch is significantly different.

[Kagami]

Or turdiness in muffin parlance.

[Kagami]

I guess shadoweh has some worthwhile interactions and non-interactions, but it feels kind of icky to weigh that as anything but a reason not to lynch her.

[Kagami]

9-day inactivity modkill isn't going to happen, and there are plenty of good vig targets.

[Kagami]

hi ferry.

Yay for time.

[Kagami]

UNVOTE:

[Kagami]

Meh, I don't really feel different about bork, but I don't want to lynch ferry.

Open to feysal, gaiden, shadoweh options. I don't really think shadoweh has been especially scumtastic, but in past games I've had a strongish townread on her at this point which I don't really have.

@Pie, are you still looking in {Gaiden, Shadoweh, Kilga}?

[Kagami]

i would have liked to discuss this with her in a dance room.

Me too!

[Kagami]

Not sure what muffin thinks, but a enough of ffery's points align with my thinking to an extent that I don't want to go in that direction.

[Kagami]

Bork read is a point I don't particularly agree on.

[Kagami]

I will say that I'm glad that we have nightchat. I want Gaiden to confirm that the behavior of the SDM is legit before daybreak tomorrow.

[Kagami]

The biggest hole in my current poe is the possibility of colluding scummos in the SDM, though I don't think that's terribly likely.

[Kagami]

The thing about borky is that I can probably dayvig him tomorrow.

[Kagami]

I still don't like feysal, and I don't think scum are designating any mislynches on D1.

Gaiden's play is wildly different than usual, which potentially stems from fear of currently living players.

Among the SDMers, I find pie a little off, but meh. Pie and Gaiden couldn't be scum together, though; Gaiden-scum is indeed afraid of sakura and pie wouldn't have put her is a hood that he'd be expected to crash.

I have to revisit my relentless read when I have time.

[Kagami]

I'd like more from relentless, thugcuddles, and GiF, but maybe that's hoping for too much.

[Kagami]

I guess GiF looks town enough, and has reason to think feysal is town?

[Kagami]

O, forgot about shadoweh. Ok-ish with her too.

[Kagami]

Not everbody answered her question about daytime spellcards.

A few people did, and yes, shadoweh was correct way back when that I have a dayvig card that has a set of conditions which include the number of cards of each type possessed. I suspect it can only reasonably hit a small number of players, among which exactly one is scum, simply because that's the way FG usually does this kind of thing.

Town-aligned daycards generally aren't super-high utility, so I had asked for the number of those to be claimed.

[Kagami]

You'd have to give me examples of high utility daycards that you couldn't just claim in post #1.

And conditional vigs that have more than one scum-target.

[Kagami]

My memory is that in upick 2 there was a non-youkai vig and one non-youkai scum (cirno).

In upick 3 there was a human-vig and one human scum (sakuya).

[Kagami]

If I'm picking up signals correctly, I'm not the only conditional vig, though, but I figured I was at game-start.

[Kagami]

Notably increases expected win-rate.

conditional Vig in UP2 could hit cirno, iirc.

[Kagami]

You're right, FG counts fairies as youkai, apparently.

[Kagami]

Well, whatever. The only high-utility cards of UPick 3 was the global track that could be used in post #1 and the multi-lynch card.

In any case, my point was primarily that knowing the number of daycards that players have isn't useful to scum unless they have something similar to me, and if they want to use dayvigs on people we wouldn't immediately lynch them for targeting, that's fine with me.

[Kagami]

I'd like more from relentless, thugcuddles

To follow up on this thought: I found both their entrances townish enough, but they've significantly reduced activity, probably due to the perception that they won't be lynched D1.

[Kagami]

On review, I'm willing to give relentless a bye for today.

[Kagami]

I gathered that.

[Kagami]

I'm inclined to vote feysal, and will probably do so in the absence of good reasons to vote elsewhere. Gaiden is a runner-up poss-vote.

[Kagami]

Let me think, I keep forgetting about her. That might be a better direction

[Kagami]

Shadoweh, what's your vote mechanic?

[Kagami]

Why do you have muffin as town, ferry?

[Kagami]

In some sense, the game is indeed a bet on his alignment, which I'm taking as town myself.

I don't really agree with the appraisal that his IC statement is a font from which towniness flows, but whatever.

What do you take to the overall scum trajectory in this game?

[Kagami]

take to be*

[Kagami]

Well, 1098 suggests something about what you think scum are aiming for here.

You posit some subset wanted to lynch your slot and paint it as a lurker PL, while some other subset is ok with that while backhandedly defending your slot, perhaps.

Or if bork is scum and you were the CW, then scum had a more central role in the choco push, no?

What does the constituency of a bork team look like to you?

[Kagami]

So then your vote is super easy, no?

You'd vote pie, since I'd have to pretend that something happens that prevents me from killing bork on D2.

[Kagami]

I doubt you're dying anytime soon.

[Kagami]

Then you'd be giving me an excuse not to deadify anyone, no?

If you're wrong on only me, then bork is taken care of anyway.

[Kagami]

I'm more curious on how NS saw that coming.

[Kagami]

When did NS fullclaim? After the megavote?

[Kagami]

That's interesting.

If I were bork, I'd have lynch the reimu claim.

[Kagami]

I realize bork's spellcards can allude to people's flavors (look at his scarlet spellcard obviously locked pie's day cards).

P-Edit: Yes, well he didn't exactly full claim, he just said that "the strongest town pr just got likely quicklynched" and mentioned the stuff he had.

scarlet sign hit me, not pie. Pie got a blue sign thing.

Doubt it's flavor-related.

[Kagami]

I give thugcuddles town-points for that, myself.

[Kagami]

Because there's a significant possibility people will apply the reasoning shadoweh demonstrated, while it's much less likely people will use the reasoning I am, making it negative utility to lynch the wagon enabled by a partner rather than one of the other good ones.

Notable alternative suicide lynches are relentless and kilg, both of whom I'd mark as better kills than ns.

[Kagami]

Well, it's kind of irrelevant until tomorrow anyway.

My plan remains the same, obviously, and I'm otherwise not terribly interested in discussing other reads/activity.

[Kagami]

i.e. I'm assuming bork was pre-planning to some extent that he'd quicklynch someone if he was being lynched and I'm guessing someone would have brought up at some point that noddy would have been essentially a free lynch due to being hated+8 votes.

He didn't pre-plan very carefully then.

[Kagami]

He only needed to use 6 cards to lynch ns.

If the scumteam has shenanigans to protect him from any vigs coming after him tonight, and I imagine they do, he'd save the kagami or relentless card in hopes of forcing us to lynch him tomorrow.

I think it was likely a somewhat improvised move.

[Kagami]

common sense.

[Kagami]

Not to my knowledge.

Bork voted earlier with a single vote, he used 7 cards that he otherwise had no reason to use and then he has 8 votes.

[Kagami]

So what was your theory for why he used the cards?

[Kagami]

Ok, so a lot of those people must be town by that theory.

And whence came the megavote?

[Kagami]

If I were scum with bork, I'd have put feysal at L-4 and let zmm act as claimed rather than let him suicide.

[Kagami]

I figured that not all his cards work on town. That would spotlight the hell out of the scumteam if they are all negate-town cards.

I assumed the megavote was an ability.

But, I think your theory is more elegant.

Yes, my theory is kind of obviously correct >.>

So what did you glean from the spellcards?

[Kagami]

If I were scum with bork, I'd have put feysal at L-4 and let zmm act as claimed rather than let him suicide.

can you walk me through why you weren't willing to take GIF's role info at face value in more detail? that is the reaction I would have expected.

I mentioned it twice with exactly the intent of probing whether it was role info. GiF said nothing, so I took it as a read.

[Kagami]

The targeting looks to have been player-specific from game-start. I don't see a flavor connection by doll-type.

I'm just surprised that the doll -> vote connection didn't jump out at you given a stated interest in gleaning info from the cards.

[Kagami]

He was likely telling the truth about 7 cards, and the flavor reason he mentioned is that alice is the seven-colored puppeteer.

I figured he was patchy, alice, or miko from that claim.

[Kagami]

Yes, I agree feysal looks town given interactions.

[Kagami]

The fact that FG messed up and put choco there is pretty strong evidence that it was decided at game start.

[Kagami]

Thugcuddles claimed 0 cards and was also targeted, so it would seem he does.

[Kagami]

If anyone can somehow donate a daycard to thugcuddles, it would be useful.

[Kagami]

Good arguments.

[Kagami]

i think the spellcards bork used likely had to do with in-game things like "person with least votes" "person who last used a spellcard" etc etc and nothing to do with flavour

not that it's important

I see no in-game correlate with the players chosen. To my mind, Choco being included strongly implies that they were chosen at game start, or possibly pre-game by bork (though I think he'd have picked fewer SMers).

May or may not be important, but non-important things are probably the best things to discuss in an open night thread.

[Kagami]

I am going to dedicate this night phase to going through the playerlist and saying nice things about everyone

I'm disappointed in the lack of nice things being said.

[Kagami]

That's not a good nighttime read.

[Kagami]

yes.

[Kagami]

...

Muffin kept asking, basically, "Who should I gladiate?" and I suggested Relentless/Gaiden/Notty in various orders, and I had basically forgotten about Bork, because he - along with katsuki, kagami, thd, feysal - basically don't exist in this game and aren't interesting to interact with. Gaiden narrowly escapes that because he actually offered an opinion on Pie/Sakura, so now I am interested in that too.

I don't see how I fail to exist, nor how I'm uninteresting.

[Kagami]

how droll.

[Kagami]

Scum did, obviously.

[Kagami]

I believe Kagami (or somebody else?) said they had a dayvig available from today to take care of Bork, Sakura.

I shot him last night, he was protected.

He was pretty much the only person I'd be able to kill and was planning to shoot him from very early on during Day 1.

I still have a dayvig I could also have used on him today, but he started the day with no daycards, so it's impossible.

[Kagami]

Would have probably failed.

[Kagami]

@Kagami

but he started the day with no daycards

It seems like you already knew this before Sakura played her card. Is there anything else you would like to share?

I didn't

know

it until she did, but it was pretty clear that bork was telling the truth when he claimed seven.

[Kagami]

My nightkill was conditional on the target beginning the night with no cards.

You've confirmed that it should have succeeded last night in the absence of protection.

[Kagami]

explanation?

[Kagami]

SKY

tbf he could only shoot people in his hood

unless I'm reading it wrong

I think it's more a matter of using that shot at all. The day ended with three scum claimed; shooting ffery means you need to be 50000000000% sure she's the fourth and final scum, because otherwise you're bringing scum one step closer to whatever dayrush plan they had.

In fact, if Sky hasn't killed ffery, the Katsuki rush would have been irrelevant in regards to action resolution; there would have been one more town than scum alive when you lynched Gaiden.

Also, with gaiden having scumclaimed, you already know the utility of the shot.

[Kagami]

I may give that game a shot. Usually not a big fan of the LoL family, but it looks fun.