Touhou UPick 4 - [Aborted]

[Kagami]

O, forgot about shadoweh. Ok-ish with her too.

[Kagami]

Not everbody answered her question about daytime spellcards.

A few people did, and yes, shadoweh was correct way back when that I have a dayvig card that has a set of conditions which include the number of cards of each type possessed. I suspect it can only reasonably hit a small number of players, among which exactly one is scum, simply because that's the way FG usually does this kind of thing.

Town-aligned daycards generally aren't super-high utility, so I had asked for the number of those to be claimed.

[zMuffinMan]

simply because that's the way FG usually does this kind of thing.

Town-aligned daycards generally aren't super-high utility

neither of these is true ftr (though it may happen to be the case in this game)

[Kagami]

You'd have to give me examples of high utility daycards that you couldn't just claim in post #1.

And conditional vigs that have more than one scum-target.

[zMuffinMan]

I still don't like feysal

i am not thoroughly impressed by feysal on reading back over things, but i don't think he'd be anywhere near my first choice of lynch if i were given free rein

Gaiden's play is wildly different than usual, which potentially stems from fear of currently living players.

that is one assumption i am making

I'd like more from relentless, thugcuddles

agreed

I guess GiF looks town enough, and has reason to think feysal is town?

agree with the first part - but i doubt gif's endorsement of feysal means anything, though, and i'm probably not going to factor it into any read on feysal

[Kagami]

My memory is that in upick 2 there was a non-youkai vig and one non-youkai scum (cirno).

In upick 3 there was a human-vig and one human scum (sakuya).

[Kagami]

If I'm picking up signals correctly, I'm not the only conditional vig, though, but I figured I was at game-start.

[zMuffinMan]

the human-only vig was from the second game, in which the only human was an innocent child

it was also in game 3 but that doesn't really add anything to your point

there's also stuff like noddy's role in the first game

in general, vigs in these games haven't been geared towards taking out scum roles (at least no more than they haven't)

and define high utility

[Kagami]

Notably increases expected win-rate.

conditional Vig in UP2 could hit cirno, iirc.

[Kagami]

You're right, FG counts fairies as youkai, apparently.

[zMuffinMan]

"notably" increasing expected win-rate is dependent on how a lot of cards are used - e.g. i wouldn't say ankamius's spell card from last game was particularly high utility except that it could block claimed scum from being able to use anything to mess up lynches

in general, though, i'd expect at least half town's day cards to either directly or potentially increase town's win chances. i'm not sure if i should expect more or less in a virtually-nightless game

[Kagami]

Well, whatever. The only high-utility cards of UPick 3 was the global track that could be used in post #1 and the multi-lynch card.

In any case, my point was primarily that knowing the number of daycards that players have isn't useful to scum unless they have something similar to me, and if they want to use dayvigs on people we wouldn't immediately lynch them for targeting, that's fine with me.

[zMuffinMan]

hm. looking back over game 3, human vig wasn't in that game actually. was a non-human vig. anyway, not super important, except insofar as i don't think fakegod designs town counters for scum roles in the way you were suggesting (if anything, i think his setups are more about designing scum roles to counter town power, but that's also probably a bad generalisation to make)

[Kilgamayan]

@kilgy

is there a reason you didn't include thd in the list of "useless" players?

He has voted a few times and at least tried to substantiate his opinions rather than spending most of the game threadshitting and not offering opinions even when directly asked.

Kagami: p. sure Relentless claimed conditional vig a few days ago, so there's that. (This was after the time he implied it and then denied it early on in the game.)

[Kagami]

I'd like more from relentless, thugcuddles

To follow up on this thought: I found both their entrances townish enough, but they've significantly reduced activity, probably due to the perception that they won't be lynched D1.

[Kagami]

On review, I'm willing to give relentless a bye for today.

[notscience]

Kagami I think conditional vig is the name of the game.

[Kagami]

I gathered that.

[Kagami]

I'm inclined to vote feysal, and will probably do so in the absence of good reasons to vote elsewhere. Gaiden is a runner-up poss-vote.

[notscience]

Why no shadoweh?

[Kagami]

Let me think, I keep forgetting about her. That might be a better direction

[Kagami]

Shadoweh, what's your vote mechanic?

[zMuffinMan]

Feysal should probably just claim in his next post

[fferyllt]

Ok, so trying to look at this game through the lens of what has happened to my slot - namely that the slot would be lynched a few days ago if I hadn't replaced in.

Scum team should have been perfectly happy to let that happen. I know this because I know my slot's alignment. It's speculative to other town, but not to me. Town team should also not have been too terribly concerned. It was a lurker slot likely to be mod killed in a few days so no great loss.

Players who never appeared to give much of a shit/willing to deadline vote

thd - from ctl-fing his iso he's had nothing to say about my slot at all, regarding either occupant.

bork - had chocola as null prior to my replace-in. No comment on the move to deadline lynch the slot, but his participation at that point was pretty sparse.

feysal - only comment about chocola prior to my replace-in was suggesting to Sky_Paladin that it made more sense to lynch chocola than to lynch relentless, who Sky_Paladin had as "maybe scum with chocola"

GiF - one comment about pieguy's scum list (don't know about chocola but feysal/gif were wrong). Deadlined voted chocola at zMuffin's behest. It's hard to fault this, but I kinda want to because GiF usually puts more thought, if not more in-thread words, into lynch decisions. Even when he doesn't explain, I can usually trace the thought process. The only possible thought process is deadline lurker lynch, which strikes me as oddly lazy given his lack of scumhunting prior to this. Still his comments about there being a reason for this approach and he'll do more on day 2 strikes me as reason enough to leave him be today. he knows precisely the impression his play has left, and as scum he's quite capable of looking extremely town with not much more effort than he's displayed here.

Kagami has an actual trajectory on my slot. 590, defers to Sky_Paladin but thinks Choco is a reasonable lynch. 687 the lynch has appeal but 703 no reason to think choco is scum and then 706 questions about meta-reasons for choco thinking he'd have time to particpate, but not actually be able to. And then the vote in 757, saying she wants to give Bork another day. She deflected off relentless in 590 and off bork in 757, while making it clear that although she liked the idea of lynching my slot, she didn't think it was a scum slot. It's a relatively long trajectory in terms of the game state. She was laying down a trail to this vote. It's the combination of these stances that makes my eyelid twitch. Could be coincidental, but this concerns me.

katsuki - blatantly, intentional horrible iso. not the slightest stance on chocola or anyone else. Doesn't look like scum-katsuki but one of these days he's going to play this way as scum and laugh all the way to a win. hopefully in a game I'm not playing with him.

Gaidin has nothing to say about chocola. or most other players. meh.

zMuffin has lots and lots and lots and lots to say about chocola, and probably even more to say about me. I think he's town.

Seemed interested in saving the slot

Kilgamayan - actively pushed for the replacement, called for me by name. Gives me a twitchy feeling that I was under discussion outside the game thread. But, I can't see why scum would want me replacing into an easy-lynch lurker town slot. No matter how badly I may play (which is usually not all that badly imo :/) it's harder to lynch the slot with an active player in it than a lurker. I know the rejoinder is going to be "it makes plenty of sense to try and get a lurking scumbuddy replaced with a player with a pulse". But, I at least know this isn't what happened, and even if it were, he's been pretty blatant about it, which would tie him to me if I were scum.

notsci - wasn't in favor of lurker lynch. Suggested Shadoweh instead. This is one of many small reasons I'm townreading notsci btw. Though he didn't change the tide, and maybe could have? Probably not.

pieguyn - 503 hopes the slot gets modkilled (as opposed to wanting to lynch it - gives a slight town sense because why waste a lynch on a lurker if you don't have to?). In 642 suggests a scumteam of Feysal, Chocola, GiF with no basis. Also in 641 comes out against the same lynches that kagami opposed (relentless and bork). Also, as a note 667 about Sky_Paladin is kinda weird. Yes, in the prior game there was a huge conflict between the two slots, but I'm not seeing the same kind of play from SP at ALL in this game. I half-expected this game to follow a similar path when I started reading the thread, but that's not what happened. So why ask for others to read Sky_Paladin here? There's a fair bit of what I feel is nitpickery going on regarding Sky_Paladin's posts later on. But, this post is supposed to be all about reactions to MEEEE so I'll drop this for now. 685 is a bit heavy on the justification for supporting a Chocola lynch. Then she votes 766 saying "subject to change when she gets back to a PC. A vote that I note still hasn't changed!

Sakura - per 311 forgot chocola exists. 752 votes bork, says would be ok with chocola but time for compromises. deadline votes chocola. I like this, not least because chocola isn't being used as a bork-shield here and I have bad vibes about that happening in a couple other isos.

Shadoweh - chocola is an afterthought in 486. Asks about Chocola's posts in the neighborhood. One of the few people who did, which I kinda like. In 754 she says this is not like Chocola's scum game. Asks if Sky_Paladin can claim his role from the neighborhood in 781. I was expecting to find stuff to hate in her position on Chocola, because I'm getting pissy about her posts since I joined. but I actually like that she was trying to draw out more info and figure out if the lurking was alignment indicative.

the_relentless. rvsvoted chocola, switched to sakura and then switched back. some back and forth to the effect that the chcoloa vote was a joke. In 310 he prefers a chocola vote to feysal or shadoweh. 312 expresses annoyance at chocola saying he'd catch up and not doing so. Swtiches to notsci in 316 and asks chocola to step it up or explain why he can't basically. 390 has chocola in a large pool of players he's willing to vote. 527 is talking to chocola (not really game related) rather than about him. 767 opposes a lurker lynch on a player likely to be modkilled. All in all, I like this and don't get a sense of agenda from his posts to/about chocola. Which agrees with my overall read so yay.

[fferyllt]

I'm putting this in a separate post because I don't want it to get lost in my ISO.

The big take-aways for me are the similarities in kagami's and pieguyn's trajectories regarding chocola and the players they preferred lynching chocola over. It's a point of concern to me that I hope doesn't get lost as this game progresses.