Micro 303: Tarot uPick - Game Over!

[Kagami]

Very disappointed no one caught our softclaim yet.

Clock Fan of Knives Steamroller?

sounds like a town role te me.

VOTE: Nazrene

[Kagami]

(btw, I picked up the flavor claim, and I think I get the role soft as well, though it's not obvious to me why it would belong to your flavor, nati)

[Kagami]

Conspicuous lack of votes to lynch in the VC means it's probably true, not that I would doubt a hated claim in any case, given that it should be alignment neutral.

Ok, so one of my abilities is that my abilities might change under some unknown circumstance. Does everyone have a similar such clause, or is that specific to me?

[Kagami]

k, neat; I feel special.

Claim: The Happy Squirrel

[Kagami]

Is there scum motivation in lying about being hated?

Also I'm just gonna put this here in bold because I know there are a few morons in here who like to not read but vote and accidentally hammer. *cough*bert/nat*cough*

Our role has a hated modifier, we take one less vote to lynch

P-edit: I was still discussing with Aegor when to claim it and we hadn't finished yet, but then L-1 came.

Are they any conditions under which you become un-hated?

[Kagami]

Are they any conditions under which you become un-hated?

Yes. They are innocuous and we will let you know when they arrive, but none of them are relevant today.

Works for me~

[Kagami]

I'm voting very, very obvious scum. I don't see what more I could do to demonstrate that I'm town.

I have absolutely no completed games with either tier or aegor, and I have done nothing to deserve a scumread of such confidence that both heads of nazarene are in agreement of.

There is an ongoing game, however, in which both aegor and I am in. Aegor believes I'm easy to mislynch.

[Kagami]

Let me ask you the same question.
Do you believe in hated scum in micro game?

I would think so... why does micro-ness make a difference?

You're suggesting this is a mod-slip and that he's essentially an IC?

[Kagami]

Every post of his posts is a scum-post, and I don't see why hated makes a significant difference once it's been claimed.

I see GiF wrapped up micro 291, for those interested in reading a kagami scum-game. The town is weak and the setup is extremely scum-sided, though, so I'm not sure how predictive it is of how I'll play when I next roll scum.

[Kagami]

Do you see paranoia in his posts? Uncertainty? Attempts to divine players' alignments?

If it weren't for the lack of L-X in the vote counts, I would have taken 54 as an honest scum-claim.

[Kagami]

pretty sure kagami is scum, just finished a scum game with him
ask gif

You aren't reading the thread...

[Kagami]

...
Gitl my setup was great stop lying

The game was fun, and you did a great job of modding, especially given that you had to spam prods. I didn't say it's a bad setup, it just favors the scum-team. If town had played differently, it could have been really interesting how things worked out with the protection, even if we had an edge.

I don't buy nazarene town, and I'm having trouble figuring out why I don't have any traction here. His posts feel very, very obv-scum to me; even his quoted hydra chat in 54 reads like scum trying to decide if they should claim hated rather than town deciding if they should tell everyone about it.

Even at that, isn't it odd that town-nazarene's heads "agreed" to claim hated, when they actually claimed hated because they were driven to L-1 and were fearful they'd be accidentally lynched?

I think ferry is far too careful to mod-slip like this, as well. Even if we don't believe that a hated player could be scum, it's entirely possible that scum-nazarene has a mod-given "hated" fake-claim, which ferry chose not to spoil by posting L-Xs.

TIP is scum too, btw.

[Kagami]

You're deliberately ignoring the most substantial aspects of my post. GiF voted you to "L-1" at 9:53 am. You posted 12 minutes later saying "hold up, we're hated."

How does that interaction square up with the conversation quoted in 54? You prepared a draft of your hated claim, agreed to post it, then didn't, instead choosing a reactive "omg we're hated?"

[Kagami]

Hmm, ok, I misread the last bit of 54.

You claim that you had the draft, but were asleep while TS (who didn't have the draft) posted in the thread seeing that you're at L-1. I retract my earlier statement; this is pretty plausible.

[Kagami]

And Aegor doesn't post between 10pm the prior day and noon on the day in question, 2 hours after the hated revelation. Ok, I definitely believe that story.

[Kagami]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: TIP

[Kagami]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: TIP

I heard you were useful as town???

-Tier

I'm being as town as I can possibly be. You have consistently asked me to "be town," so what have you done yourself other than vacuously discrediting any vote placed on you? Orc is a "moronic town" and "lazy" for voting you, my counterpush is "awful" and "OMGUS," and aldusk's vote is "horrible."

You are essentially riding on GiF's belief that you are an IC due to a modslip from someone who I would describe as probably the least careless player on mafiascum.

TIP, meanwhile, says that I'm playing like my scum-self despite not having read the thread... and you think that's ok?

[Kagami]

You have your own experience for me-town for one, experience that should have stopped you from even beginning this silly push on the basis of being "useless" on day 1.

I am not voting you because I'm confident GiF will disarm any attempt to lynch you, and he's the only active player who I think is town. Your partner is TIP, so I'm ok with that lynch too. TIP is a very sloppy and silly scum player, and the 107 is exactly the kind of mistake I would expect scum-TIP to make. I wouldn't expect you to ignore it if you were town.

[Kagami]

Could you flavor-claim more completely, nati? What does it say "The World" represents?

The World as daycop makes little to no sense to me.

[Kagami]

I think I'm seeing naz as town for both his behavior there and that it sounds like aegor was planning to unvote me, which there was little scum motivation to do.

I don't think bert is scum for wagon hopping. This seems bertish enough not to doubt the daycop. Scum-bert also could have hammered naz (posts missing) and there was little reason not to, given that town-bert has done so enough that he could potentially get away with it.

I don't get the orc scum-read either. I have him and GiF as likely town.

TIP is still scum.

Never hydraing again. I forget to switch way too often.

[Kagami]

Dodging.

My 1 year old is sick, will post when I can. Still think TIP is scum.

[Kagami]

Medea.

I think you're town.

But I still need you lynched.

Because role. I have a passive ability that only activates upon your death. I'm not claiming what my role is though. Taking it to the goddamn grave there.

I had to choose a player to tether to pre-game, I chose you.

I'm town, nati.

I don't understand this, though. Why tether to cabd/PA instead of a player who is likely to be less useful if town? Seems to me like you had a free policy lynch, but cabd/PA is a terrible PL.

[Kagami]

...
TIP and us would have been MUCH better choices

Didn't want to be mean, but pretty much this >.>

[Kagami]

Yep, I killed PN.

Nope, I am town.

[Kagami]

I'm the Tower, town 1-shot vig.

I get one nightkill, and I'm told that my ability may change.
I had expected the change to be dependent on my target choice, but have received no PMs indicating such.

[Kagami]

Unless someone can confirm that the actual mafia nightkill was prevented, I see little means of getting out of this; so here's some setup spec for everyone.

I know relatively little about Thoth tarot interpretation, but it's fairly clear that Ferry does and that she's put significant effort into making this setup and having it be consistent with Thoth tarot readings. A quick google may lead you to the corax site that has a great set of explanations for the major arcana.

Note that we all seem to have two abilities. On the site I found, there is a quick explanation of the interpretations of the different cards, together with three things at the bottom: "drive," "light," and shadow. I don't know what exactly these are, by I assume they're related to the different readings for upright and upside-down orientations of other tarot decks.

Now look at the "light" and "drive" readings of each of those cards. These readings correlate heavily with what abilities go with which cards. I suspect scum get something corresponding to "drive" and "shadow."


TIP: The Lovers

Drive: Devotion, melting into one another, being one with it, love. <-- Nieghbor
Light: Full-hearted confession, trust, optimism <-- Inventor (you give a power to someone you trust)


PN: The Sun

Drive: Aiming at the light, living for generous, unconditional principles <-- Asceticism
Light: Vitality, generosity, warmth <-- Motivation


Kagami: The Tower

Drive: Breaking up structures, destroying the old, getting rid of obsolete loads <-- 1-shot vig
Light: Sudden realization of the truth, the will to change old ways, to recreate life and start something new <-- changing ability. Poss if I shot no one? Maybe alignment change if I had shot scum?

[Kagami]

1SV in micro?

Yep, I hope this will also lead you to re-evaluating your opinion about hated-ness. I strongly suspect that Ferry put her theme above site meta. She very clearly cares about this.

[Kagami]

I'll say this in my defense:

PN is a very obvious vig kill. He was far, far from a strong townie and was the obvious choice for a vig.

He had already soft-claimed The Sun, and there's no reasonable interpretation of that card that implies an investigator or something that scum might be afraid of. He hadn't softed anything threatening to scum either. There's no motivation for killing him if I were scum.

Also, this is part of why I was lurktastically lurkiful day 1 (aside from my general disinterest in day 1 activity), I knew I'd get my kill choice (was TIP) anyway, so I didn't need to push the lynch. As long as I wasn't lynched, I didn't think I need to worry about being suspicious either, because I figured that once I had a claimable night kill, I'd be soft-confirmed by role (obviously, I expected two night kills).

[Kagami]

1SV in micro?

Yep, I hope this will also lead you to re-evaluating your opinion about hated-ness. I strongly suspect that Ferry put her theme above site meta. She very clearly cares about this.

The difference is that their hatedness is proven while your 1SV is not.
Also putting 1SV in 9p setup easily leads to D2 MyLo if mislynched D1 and misvig'd N1, which harms town. Why would fery put 1SV in the micro setup?

No idea. One possibility is that scum don't get a nightkill on night 1? Could also be a decent amount of protection, such that one kill failing was likely enough that it wouldn't matter.

[Kagami]

I just found the page and looked at my stuff and wow.
I could've been an innocent child.

Ok, so your card is pretty obvious to me (and yes, it is the best one), and makes me think that my setup spec is quite wrong :<

[Kagami]

Kagami how did you know gif knew you killed PN?

Giffy, what does that statement about you having been an IC mean?

I'll do my rereading soon.

-Tier

He very clearly was softing a guilty, which means he's an investigator who isn't a cop. Tracker or gunsmith both require me to claim, and may as well do it right away.

[Kagami]

I just found the page and looked at my stuff and wow.
I could've been an innocent child.

Ok, so your card is pretty obvious to me (and yes, it is the best one), and makes me think that my setup spec is quite wrong :<

Well, I guess it fits the middle part of drive. Ok, I might still be right.

[Kagami]

Btw, My picks were:

1. The Tower
2. The Aeon
3. Fortune

[Kagami]

like i'm actually ridiculously and almost irrationally pissed why the fuck would you vig PN

O.O

It seemed like by far the best choice...

I don't understand, why would I think he's town? Why would I think he might have a good PR I'd want to avoid?

[Kagami]

I'm here

We are not lynching Bert yet

VOTE: TIP

Why "yet?"

[Kagami]

He almost certainly didn't get a false positive. He knows either that I could kill or that I targeted PN or something like that, and I've confirmed this.

[Kagami]

I get what you mean, but if I were a miller of any sort, I'd have claimed in my first post.

His investigation is very likely both accurate and incriminating, but it is not alignment-revealing. By telling you that I killed PN, I've given you strictly more information than GiF originally had, so I don't think there's benefit in pursuing this line of thought other beyond revealing a role. It's fairly obvious that GiF is town, moreso even now than it was yesterday, so the decision to reveal information about should be his own.

[Kagami]

Alright, I'm putting the little guy to sleep. I'll throw out reads and whatnot once I have time after that and prior to going to bed.

[Kagami]

Alright, read #1

Orc is scum.

In 340 and 341, PN is so obviously town that he was a terrible vig shot, which I would have realized if I were playing yesterday (344).

Yesterday, he is not the lynch "yet" (307). This is not what you say of someone who is "bleeding towniness," this is what you say of someone you're hoping to keep as a future mislynch, and who you're definitely not planning to ever nightkill. Further, despite PN being the only wagon other than TIP's that has lynching traction near the end of the day, orc makes absolutely no attempt to defend PN. Again, this is not how you treat a town-read.

Orc defends himself above saying that "reads change." No, they don't change that much overnight without a hydra partner or a night action. We know, however, that orc didn't use a night action to find PN innocent because not only has he not questioned GiF's role at all (which he would if he too were an investigator), but he wouldn't have "almost irrationally pissed" at my vig choice if he had targeted the same person for investigation.

[Kagami]

Garruk or Naz are very likely partners (I'd say garruk).

There were two major wagons yesterday, one on me, one on TIP. The fake daycop wagon was stupid, so we'll ignore that for now.

Wagon on me: TheIrishPope , Nazarene, Garruk Relentless, PN
Wagon on TIP: kagami, Medea the Alien, alduskkel, orcinus_theoriginal, GuyInFreezer

Amazingly, a completely different set of people on each wagon. I expect you will all soon find that I'm town, so we'll assume that's a given for now. What does it mean that both wagons consisted of entirely different people? It means either that one wagon on town had 0 scum and one wagon on town had 2 scum, or that both had exactly 1 scum.

0 scum and 2 scum on a townwagon are both somewhat uncommon, so there's high probability that both wagons have 1 scum. My wagon already has two conf-towns, TIP and NP, suggesting that Garruk or Naz is scum.

Now let's go back to the daycopping. Garruk claims he will get some awesome power if he lynches medea. What could that power possibly be? Is it bulletproof? That would hardly be worth a probable mislynch together with trashing a reputation a la the MD post. If it's not BP, then won't he just get NKed having revealed his intention? Or what if there's a roleblocker? This makes absolutely no sense at all.

[Kagami]

Third pick for scum is medea, in the event that I had no scum on my wagon.

Medea should pretty much know I'm town, as scum-kagami would have no chance at all of not hammering her during the daycopping thing. Scum-kagami was obviously in a tight spot, and would have been very happy to draw some suspicion that she could potentially get out of, while still being able to shift the blame to Garruk. I also find it on that Cabd doesn't seem too concerned about orc's very obvious errors and behavior that is highly reminiscent of the Tales game he just modded.

[Kagami]

As for townreads, I'll just say PoE on everyone else.

GiF is very obviously town, he wouldn't have so readily given investigation results if he were scum, since he would have a good chance of drawing a CC from a town investigator.

and I may as well say this much since the scum already know:

GiF isn't a cop, or he'd not be pushing me.
GiF isn't a gunsmith, or he wouldn't doubt the existence of a vig.
GiF isn't a watcher, since PN had no chance of drawing the NK.

[Kagami]

Ok, now setup spec:

I believe that there is protection for obvious reasons.

I believe that if medea is scum, she's a strongman. It's incredibly likely that Cabd picked the Magician for his card, and the magician would almost certainly be a strongman.

No one has wondered about TIP's neighbor. I find this a little odd, and would even have expected the neighbor to have come out voluntarily. Decent chance that the neighbor is one of the scum.

We all have two abilities, one is active, one is passive. Not sure if that holds for the scum, but it seems fair that it would.

Flavor claiming is probably a good idea, especially if my earlier setup-spec post is correct or near correct.

[Kagami]

I would think, btw, that the Star is a very likely partner to the lovers, especially if it's scum.

[Kagami]

By telling you that I killed PN, I've given you strictly more information than GiF originally had, so I don't think there's benefit in pursuing this line of thought other beyond revealing a role.

What are you saying, I shouldn't discuss a guilty?

I'm gonna wait for input from medea and ald here.

Also dammit Aegor why couldn't you let us keep on annoying orc :/

-Tier

And then naz has to do this.....

ok, Medea + Naz is also a viable team.

[Kagami]

Don't think he's scum.

[Kagami]

I'm essentially calling one of the following teams:

Orc+Garruk
Orc+Medea
Medea+Naz

[Kagami]

This Head of the Hydra does not like all the vague info upon which we are basing our discussions thus far today.

He very clearly was softing a guilty, which means he's an investigator who isn't a cop.

How does that follow at all?

-A

It follows because I'm town, so I obviously knew he's not a cop.

[Kagami]

I think scum is in {orc, Garruk, Naz, GIF}.

More later when I'm not dead tired.

How can you be scumreading GiF?

[Kagami]

Btw, mass claim is stupid (especially if you plan to lie), but mass flavor claim would be of value. The actual roles seem inscrutable enough.

[Kagami]

Why not claim "hated for day 1?"

The roles are inscrutable, but they make sense. Flavor claiming now makes it harder to fake-claim tomorrow, but does so without directly revealing roles.

[Kagami]

Those two statements are actually quite consistent. I'd never have guessed his real role from his flavor, but I'd be very, very suspicious if he fake-claimed investigator, because of the flavor claim.

Firstly, I definitely believe the hanged man claim on the basis that it seemed like something somebody was sure to pick for a mafia game, and thus would be a very daring fake-claim. Hated seems like a bit of an odd modifier to get out of it, but whatever.

In any case, it sounds like you agree with my setup-spec theory, at least to some extent, and are pointing out that the "light" bit is evidence both of your hated claim and your town status. GiF as a follower is a bit surprising to me (IC makes way more sense), so I'm not completely sold on my own theory. If it's right though, then my vig claim should be fairly compelling.

[Kagami]

cool, if my setup spec theory is correct, then we should def flavor claim and look into "shadow" readings.


Anyway, I'd like to re-emphasize: What scum would kill PN over GiF or Naz, who were almost universally townread and would actually be useful to town if left alive?

The fact that it was PN who died should pretty strongly indicate that it was a vig kill. PN would kind of be a bad scum kill even if he were an IC / very obv-town.

If you think scum-kagami would have killed a person who was suspecting me, there would still be much better choices (Naz being an obvious one).

[Kagami]

I did think about shooting Medea, though, but I wasn't sure of Garruk's alignment (and still aren't). I'm wondering if the setup was designed such that optimal night action involves vig-ing the tether.

[Kagami]

EBWOP: (and still am not)

[Kagami]

in 327, I posit that our abilities come from some interpretation of the "light" and "drive" thingies, but that scum might have powers from the "drive" and "shadow" meanings. No one has expressed any objection to this possibility, so I figure I might actually be right on that one.

[Kagami]

I haven't much to add.

My suspicions on medea are wavering. I don't see cabd being so disconnected while playing his favorite alignment. PA feels like tales PA too. I also don't think scum are voting me. Medea's reaction of "vote the guilty" is what I'd expect of town too. I also continue to think ald is town, though his reads list is absurd.

Townreading me through a kill follow on the only night kill would only come from an informed or preternaturally skilled party, and if someone has a strong role-derived reason to believe I'm innocent, they're screwing the town by not being overt about it.

I still think orc is scum.

[Kagami]

:<

Should have trusted nati. Oh well.

Not sure how I could have recovered from the GiF guilty, but it seems like he lucked out at there not being a real investigator to CC.

[Kagami]

...
kagami's reads were shit she was scumreading me

Yep. This was an embarrassing game in this respect. I really should have shot medea, and was thinking about it, but hindsight is 20/20.

I'm a little surprised that I actually had the town town-reading me post-guilty. At least my transparency was still strongish.

Thanks for modding ferry, was fun.

[Kagami]

haha, well, my spec in this game wasn't really intended to be right. I just wanted to get reads out of it, which didn't happen since it was largely ignored :<