Micro 303: Tarot uPick - Game Over!

[Kagami]

I get what you mean, but if I were a miller of any sort, I'd have claimed in my first post.

His investigation is very likely both accurate and incriminating, but it is not alignment-revealing. By telling you that I killed PN, I've given you strictly more information than GiF originally had, so I don't think there's benefit in pursuing this line of thought other beyond revealing a role. It's fairly obvious that GiF is town, moreso even now than it was yesterday, so the decision to reveal information about should be his own.

[Nazarene]

naz are you still hated?

We are not Hated anymore.

-A

[GuyInFreezer]

if it's likely to get false positives.

I wouldn't gave jumped on it quickly if the result had a decent chance of being false positive.

[Nazarene]

By telling you that I killed PN, I've given you strictly more information than GiF originally had, so I don't think there's benefit in pursuing this line of thought other beyond revealing a role.

What are you saying, I shouldn't discuss a guilty?

I'm gonna wait for input from medea and ald here.

Also dammit Aegor why couldn't you let us keep on annoying orc :/

-Tier

[Medea the Alien]

input from medea

Hi.

I don't really see there being a oneshot vig in this game when ffery has past experience with vigs in micros and it being rediculously scum sided. (Morph the cat scumgame, Nachomamma8's "Achievement Unlocked Mafia") Admittedly, that was a scum extra kill, but my point stands that in our conversations in-hydra she'd expressed a distaste for vigs in anything smaller than a 13p mini (and even then she has a recent negative experience thanks to orc's scumteam in 1551).

The angle Kagami is taking in her defense is interesting, though. Not exactly how I'd play it off had I gotten caught making a nightkill.

[Medea the Alien]

if it's likely to get false positives.

I wouldn't gave jumped on it quickly if the result had a decent chance of being false positive.

Like this post is enough and actually correct (*glares at natirasha*)

UNVOTE:
VOTE: kagami

[Kagami]

Alright, I'm putting the little guy to sleep. I'll throw out reads and whatnot once I have time after that and prior to going to bed.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

I'm here

We are not lynching Bert yet

VOTE: TIP

Why "yet?"

because reads can change and ever since mac snowed me like fuck in that one game i can't quite remember i haven't placed as much faith in my d1 reads

naz. what was your mechanic?

[Kagami]

Alright, read #1

Orc is scum.

In 340 and 341, PN is so obviously town that he was a terrible vig shot, which I would have realized if I were playing yesterday (344).

Yesterday, he is not the lynch "yet" (307). This is not what you say of someone who is "bleeding towniness," this is what you say of someone you're hoping to keep as a future mislynch, and who you're definitely not planning to ever nightkill. Further, despite PN being the only wagon other than TIP's that has lynching traction near the end of the day, orc makes absolutely no attempt to defend PN. Again, this is not how you treat a town-read.

Orc defends himself above saying that "reads change." No, they don't change that much overnight without a hydra partner or a night action. We know, however, that orc didn't use a night action to find PN innocent because not only has he not questioned GiF's role at all (which he would if he too were an investigator), but he wouldn't have "almost irrationally pissed" at my vig choice if he had targeted the same person for investigation.

[Kagami]

Garruk or Naz are very likely partners (I'd say garruk).

There were two major wagons yesterday, one on me, one on TIP. The fake daycop wagon was stupid, so we'll ignore that for now.

Wagon on me: TheIrishPope , Nazarene, Garruk Relentless, PN
Wagon on TIP: kagami, Medea the Alien, alduskkel, orcinus_theoriginal, GuyInFreezer

Amazingly, a completely different set of people on each wagon. I expect you will all soon find that I'm town, so we'll assume that's a given for now. What does it mean that both wagons consisted of entirely different people? It means either that one wagon on town had 0 scum and one wagon on town had 2 scum, or that both had exactly 1 scum.

0 scum and 2 scum on a townwagon are both somewhat uncommon, so there's high probability that both wagons have 1 scum. My wagon already has two conf-towns, TIP and NP, suggesting that Garruk or Naz is scum.

Now let's go back to the daycopping. Garruk claims he will get some awesome power if he lynches medea. What could that power possibly be? Is it bulletproof? That would hardly be worth a probable mislynch together with trashing a reputation a la the MD post. If it's not BP, then won't he just get NKed having revealed his intention? Or what if there's a roleblocker? This makes absolutely no sense at all.

[Kagami]

Third pick for scum is medea, in the event that I had no scum on my wagon.

Medea should pretty much know I'm town, as scum-kagami would have no chance at all of not hammering her during the daycopping thing. Scum-kagami was obviously in a tight spot, and would have been very happy to draw some suspicion that she could potentially get out of, while still being able to shift the blame to Garruk. I also find it on that Cabd doesn't seem too concerned about orc's very obvious errors and behavior that is highly reminiscent of the Tales game he just modded.

[Kagami]

As for townreads, I'll just say PoE on everyone else.

GiF is very obviously town, he wouldn't have so readily given investigation results if he were scum, since he would have a good chance of drawing a CC from a town investigator.

and I may as well say this much since the scum already know:

GiF isn't a cop, or he'd not be pushing me.
GiF isn't a gunsmith, or he wouldn't doubt the existence of a vig.
GiF isn't a watcher, since PN had no chance of drawing the NK.

[Kagami]

Ok, now setup spec:

I believe that there is protection for obvious reasons.

I believe that if medea is scum, she's a strongman. It's incredibly likely that Cabd picked the Magician for his card, and the magician would almost certainly be a strongman.

No one has wondered about TIP's neighbor. I find this a little odd, and would even have expected the neighbor to have come out voluntarily. Decent chance that the neighbor is one of the scum.

We all have two abilities, one is active, one is passive. Not sure if that holds for the scum, but it seems fair that it would.

Flavor claiming is probably a good idea, especially if my earlier setup-spec post is correct or near correct.

[Kagami]

I would think, btw, that the Star is a very likely partner to the lovers, especially if it's scum.

[Kagami]

By telling you that I killed PN, I've given you strictly more information than GiF originally had, so I don't think there's benefit in pursuing this line of thought other beyond revealing a role.

What are you saying, I shouldn't discuss a guilty?

I'm gonna wait for input from medea and ald here.

Also dammit Aegor why couldn't you let us keep on annoying orc :/

-Tier

And then naz has to do this.....

ok, Medea + Naz is also a viable team.

[GuyInFreezer]

What about aldus

[Kagami]

Don't think he's scum.

[Kagami]

I'm essentially calling one of the following teams:

Orc+Garruk
Orc+Medea
Medea+Naz

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Alright, read #1

Orc is scum.

In 340 and 341, PN is so obviously town that he was a terrible vig shot, which I would have realized if I were playing yesterday (344).

Yesterday, he is not the lynch "yet" (307). This is not what you say of someone who is "bleeding towniness," this is what you say of someone you're hoping to keep as a future mislynch, and who you're definitely not planning to ever nightkill. Further, despite PN being the only wagon other than TIP's that has lynching traction near the end of the day, orc makes absolutely no attempt to defend PN. Again, this is not how you treat a town-read.

Orc defends himself above saying that "reads change." No, they don't change that much overnight without a hydra partner or a night action. We know, however, that orc didn't use a night action to find PN innocent because not only has he not questioned GiF's role at all (which he would if he too were an investigator), but he wouldn't have "almost irrationally pissed" at my vig choice if he had targeted the same person for investigation.

i make no attempt to defend PN because it was a retarded wagon and because i wasn't here

i defend myself not by saying that reads change, but by saying that even though i can have strong town reads on day 1 they can shift to scum later

so when i say PN isn't being lynched yet i mean that i'm not seeing PN as scum yet and everyone who does can fuck off

also i swear to god if you start pushing me for this i'm going to tunnel you into oblivion



i also completely forgot what my night action was in this game because i'm really distracted by RL things, so this is going to look a little funny

i targeted naz last night

now that we got that out of the way, back to VOTE: medea

[orcinus_theoriginal]

still townreading kagami fwiw

[orcinus_theoriginal]

actually what the balls there was no wagon on PN

there was a singular GiF vote

like what the hell

[Nazarene]

This Head of the Hydra does not like all the vague info upon which we are basing our discussions thus far today.

He very clearly was softing a guilty, which means he's an investigator who isn't a cop.

How does that follow at all?

-A

[Nazarene]

0 scum and 2 scum on a townwagon are both somewhat uncommon, so there's high probability that both wagons have 1 scum. My wagon already has two conf-towns, TIP and NP, suggesting that Garruk or Naz is scum.

Sure, it's uncommon, but it's nothing to base a case on. For one, I think you're scum, so that wagon is all town and the TIP wagon was a such wagon that would draw very little suspicion to be on. Assuming the neighbour is scum, scum definitely would have wanted TIP out of the way and there was very little risk to wagon him, so I think both scum were on there (also by virtue of the other wagon being all town).

I do not understand the comment about medea knowing you are town, what knowledge does medea have that we have not?

I can't actually believe that the kind of guilty gif has is spoiled by telling us. I don't know why he wouldn't just tell. We feel uncomfortable not knowing what we are sheeping. So GiF, will you please enlighten us?

-Tier

[GuyInFreezer]

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[GuyInFreezer]

I thought it was pretty obvious at this point.