Micro 474: Over the Garden Wall Mafia (GAME OVER)
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pieguyn
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pieguyn Survivor
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on a more serious note, I don't think unnecessarily flavor claiming is a good idea. scum have a flavor-targeted NK, and potentially other abilities that can act on flavor. I'm not sure about this given flavor being public would also allow town to use flavor-targeted abilities without any problems, though.
also, Nacho would be my recruit, full stop-
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In post 16, Metal Sonic wrote:I am completed with index II pie
did you enjoy it?
I watched it maybe 2 years ago or so (probably more, idr) and I'm still waiting for index 3. why they do this ;w;-
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pieguyn Survivor
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while it's true I'd almost definitely recruit Nacho, I don't support any form of "PL x bc a lot of people would have picked them as scum". my vote on Nacho was entirely an RV.-
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In post 20, Metal Sonic wrote:If I recall correctly they just announced index 3
wait, really? oh fuck yes
this is what I get for not paying attention to the latest anime announcements-
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In post 21, Metal Sonic wrote:Oh. Oh well. Thought it was going that way
do *you* think it's worth PL'ing Nacho solely on the basis that a lot of ppl would pick him as scum? do you disagree that the recruitment system is subject to a lot of WIFOM re: popular targets and thus that the best course of action is to read ppl individually via play?-
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In post 25, Metal Sonic wrote:No idea lol. Nacho has a timer so he will die by lynch or by nk
why did you follow my apparent suggestion to policy lynch Nacho?
is this serious or random? if serious, why?-
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pieguyn
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In post 38, Nachomamma8 wrote:i probably have a townread on actiondan
too early imo. walk me through this?-
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In post 48, Honey bee wrote:Pie is pinging me and idunno why so talk about ur vote if you may for me please.
his opening felt forced. it felt like he was going out of his way to search for stuff to comment on in order to look useful. namely the Nacho "policy lynch"; it felt like he wanted something surface level town-ish to do and just went along with it for the sake of it as opposed to thinking it'd actually advance the game.
I don't really remember him opening any games like this before - usually he just jokes around or otherwise does nothing early game until he starts getting reads. this isn't that strong a read given it's only page fucking 2, but regardless.
do you disagree?-
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pieguyn Survivor
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I'm about 99% sure he could post it as either alignment. faking confusion about smth it's publicly known scum has is an easy way to appear as town-ish in some ppl's eyes (it actually strikes me as something he'd specifically go out of his way to do as scum, but I don't feel that strongly about it).
either way when he jokes around early game I don't see it looking like this. he usually just fluff posts about stuff that's not game-relevant.-
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yeah, except in this case you're doing other stuff on top of that that could be sort-of construed as game related when it's really not - which is why I think it's coming off as forced
in all the other games we've had, I don't remember you doing this. you usually don't bother with anything game-related until you have legitimate reads.-
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what have I done so far this game that I would be less likely to do as scum?-
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In post 59, Nachomamma8 wrote:my actiondan read is gut based on how he's approached the game thus far and normally wouldn't even be a feeling that hit the thread, but the thread's start wasn't exactly the most exciting.
I actually think we're seeing the same thing here, I just thought his first post by itself was way too early to call him town for it. either way, I don't have any problem with what he's done so far.
In post 61, Nachomamma8 wrote:this thought processed is fleshed out pretty decently for earlygame, and is a good plan
it makes him less likely to be recruiter
i don't really think anyone in this playerlist would recruit him
I disagree with this, though. part of my plan to recruit you if I wound up rolling scum here involved having to bullshit reasons why I would likely recruit another person or why I wouldn't recruit you in order to get out of it - or if it'd be worth it to truthfully claim I'd recruit you bc of WIFOM - since you'd obviously fall under a lot of scrutiny from it and anyone who knows my play well enough would probably be able to guess I'd recruit you. I would expect other people would plan out how they'd handle it in a similar way.
essentially, I don't think it's a good idea to read anyone based on who they'd recruit or how many ppl would recruit them. Dan's attitude is a better reason to town read him.
In post 67, Metal Sonic wrote:Honey bee is town too < strongest townread
y
In post 73, SXTLHGaiden wrote:I am actually quite paranoid of pie after i played against him as scum.
he is quite terrifying when he knows the flavor.
you won't ever let me live that game down, will you :<-
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In post 75, Nachomamma8 wrote:safe
don't see this either. there's really nothing I'd expect him to go out of his way to do given it's post fucking 12. what did you think was safe about it?
in other news, Nacho looks town.-
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@METAL SONIC:
In post 76, pieguyn wrote:In post 67, Metal Sonic wrote:Honey bee is town too < strongest townread
y-
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Doduo's opinion of MS basically sums up where I'm at.
I don't see any kind of town approach in the way MS is playing this game so far. all of his reads have felt half-hearted - as if he's just making them up - and it feels like he's just posting a fuckton of stuff to look useful without actually putting any thought into the game. in my experience with MS, even his town reads have more to them and are more relevant to what people are actually doing than "xxx is cute".-
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how does "doduo wasn't in my game" make him scum? even discounting the fact it was possible (given you knew Marquis was in another game) he was following along with the other team mafia games - why, specifically, do you think him referencing the game you were in is more likely to come from scum than town?
In post 109, Lia wrote:Unvote
I'm seeing the case on MS but it's not enough to push for a lynch there yet. I'm getting a couple of twinges about others but nothing worth mentioning yet as I don't know them well enough to know whether it's significant.
elaborate? it's fine if you don't know whether it's significant or not yet-
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?
In post 132, Metal Sonic wrote:alchey would have been more engaged/excited about this game at this point in time
i dont see that right now
I've had 1 game with him as scum and he was pretty fucking engaged there. and iirc he prefers scum over town (? correct me if I'm wrong)?
I would like him to do more, but I'm not sure the lack of engagement here means anything and I haven't really had a problem with anything he's posted so far. is this a meta read, or... ?-
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the rest is kind of redeeming, I suppose. I could potentially see myself agreeing on Bee, but I want him to do more first. Doduo's thought process isn't inconsistent; given I don't really intend to read people based on recruiting-related things, I think it makes sense for someone to assume at first you weren't the recruiter and then push you anyway based on play.
there's still a bunch of people who I'd like to see more from -.--
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In post 135, Metal Sonic wrote:but his town game usualy has him figuring out stuff early.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=59178
this is the game I played with Alch as scum. it looked like he was capable of figuring shit out early here. I'm waiting to see more from him as well, but either way, I don't particularly think this is a tell by itself.
is this based around the read on you, or something else?-
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pieguyn Survivor
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I'm looking through it again and I still have no idea what you're seeing here. I think his read on you is a really shit reason for scum reading him (I'm aware you have a lot of experience with each other, but I'm pretty sure I've read you right in every game we've had (?) - so I don't have a problem with him scum reading you for the same reason), and I don't mind the rest of his posts, either.
needless to say this doesn't make him town, but if I scum read him it will likely be for other reasons-
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this notsci? you support Marquis' scum read on MS?
In post 155, Doduo wrote:like i'm pretty sure you would still make that flavor claim as scum because you have the balls to do so. and i'd imagine in this scum mechanic it'd be a great way to fly in the face of the obvious suspicion if you were scum
disagree. I didn't think about this before, but I don't think he'd go out of his way to claim flavor as scum from a strategic POV for a few reasons: 1. since scum have a flavor NK (which in this case is a strongman kill that can't be affected by anything) it naturally opens up paranoia as to why he's still alive in LYLO, which is something I'm pretty fucking sure he'd want to avoid if possible, 2. there is a nonzero chance there exists a town investigative role that acts on flavor and if he's the only one who's flavor claimed he's the obvious target for it (I'm not sure how strong this is bc I incorrectly townread zmuffin for something like this in a previous game, although in his case it was bc he just didn't think about it).
I thought it also looked town for other reasons, which I don't really want to elaborate on. either way I'm fairly sure this is just Nacho's town game-
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In post 191, Honey bee wrote:Do you have an example of what you're talking about tho? I haven't gone on a meta crunch yet so these arguments seem distant from me.
MS is known for essentially being a huge derp, and afiact he abuses this as scum to make a bunch of pointless posts and have it all be written off as "lol, derp". I don't have any specific examples of his scum play, but I've loosely followed a few games he was in where he was scum and I generally got that impression off the posts of his that I saw. the 2 most recent town games I had with him were
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=61111 (Endless Possibilities hydra) - he just fluff posts and has fun early game until he starts pushing Om. there were only I think 3 or 4 posts before that, the rest of them were me.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=60046 (mental somnic hydra) - he just ignores everything (and says as much) until he starts getting reads. all the other posts that were about stuff were Om.
it might be difficult to tell individual posts apart bc both of those are hydra games. most of his games he does the former as opposed to lurking the game out, but regardless (I can link more games if you want).
I didn't mind his response to my initial push, but it's not enough to make me drop the scum read by itself. more recently, I don't like his Gaiden read either for the same reason - I don't get the impression he actually believed Gaiden is "conftown" off anything he did, and if he does, he shouldn't go back and immediately think he might be scum for meta reasons. it feels more like he's just coming up with shit for the sake of it without any internal consistency anywhere.
In post 192, Lia wrote:All I've really got so far is a scum read on MS and possibly on Honey bee. I'm going to give Nacho and Alchemist a tentative town read for now for the point that Nacho raised on that, and that Alch queried. They both feel town for that. Everything else seems to be just sparring based on meta. Still getting a slight twinge about Pie from her early posts but can't quite put my finger on it.
elaborate on both of these? (in MS' case, I don't disagree, but I want to know your specific reasoning)-
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In post 198, Metal Sonic wrote:someone let me know how good is pie's scumgame
The above seems too good to be true
so when it becomes obvious I still don't think you're town you start claiming my posts are "lol too good to be true".
sounds legit
(also I agree it's odd you're even saying this if you're town here given you're my top scum read)-
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In post 205, Metal Sonic wrote:no, its just paranoia
*which* posts, specifically, are making you think this? cos I'm pretty fucking sure none of my posts this game have been above par in terms of how much effort I've put in - so you thinking this doesn't make sense. it feels more like you're attempting to come up with fake paranoia on me in order to hopefully get me to town read you (or otherwise look town) as opposed to legitimately believing this.-
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FFX AU and Organic Chemistry (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=54597) were the 2 games of his I was loosely following. I don't have any direct experience with scum-MS, but that's the impression I got from the posts of his I saw in both of those games.-
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nothing that's happening has been changing my reads. I'm pretty sure this is Nacho's town game. there are a bunch of things I look for in Nacho's town game that he can't (or at the very least, hasn't yet) faked as scum and he's done a pretty good job of hitting them so far here. I can attempt to explain this in detail if necessary, but I'd rather not for meta reasons and I find it difficult to articulate in logical terms some of what is making me read him as town.
I'm actually somewhat paranoid about Alch's recent posts, but my feelings there aren't particularly strong and, on reread, I think some of his posts elsewhere look kinda town (namely Gaiden push).
I want to see more content from Lia and AD. while I haven't minded either of what they've posted (and in AD's case have a slight town read on the slot), both of them have done essentially nothing.-
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In post 231, Metal Sonic wrote:Specifically, 196 and 197
this response is interesting.
Spoiler:
^ this was a post FROM MY LATEST TOWN GAME WITH MS. he was in THIS HYDRA with me for this game.
his angle here is that he's paranoid of me bc I'm supposedly making long/effortful posts early in the game. this is blatantly disingenuous. while long posts are not a tell either way for me, he has directly seen that it's something I do as town and that I'm more than capable of walling early game if I want to elaborate on or deconstruct posts in depth.
so him thinking I might be scum for it doesn't make any sense. I think he's going for a fake paranoia angle here, as in he pretends to be paranoid of someone bc ppl will hopefully see it and think something along the lines of "look at that paranoia, so town".
I'm aware this is supposedly just paranoia, but regardless, it doesn't make sense from a town POV. he knows it's not a scum tell yet supposedly is pushing it as one anyway.
In post 312, Alchemist21 wrote:If there's any indication he's scum from the way he's reacting to pie's posts, it's that it's easy to call Town Town and he knows this, and he's being pretty liberal with handing out the confTown statuses.
except this isn't what he's doing. what he's doing is calling me town, but then going back and saying he's paranoid of me for supposedly making long posts. that isn't committing to a town read on me.
rather than an actual town reaction - such as deconstructing my posts and trying to show me why he's not scum (which in this case is something I think he should be particularly likely to do here bc we have a pretty long history with each other), or committing to a firm read on me either way - we're seeing him do the "fake paranoia and start second guessing myself" routine.-
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In post 323, Metal Sonic wrote:what do you think of doduo?
town?
I have some markers for what I look for in Marquis' scum game and I haven't been seeing them here, although I haven't thought anything specific they did was extremely town. notsci's posting so far is not telling either way (I have no intention of town reading him solely bc "engagement = town"). I still haven't minded their posts nor do I think "their read on me" is a good reason for scum reading them.-
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show me what you've done this game that comes from a town mindset
explain how my posts are so great when if you're town I've been blatantly wrong all game
explain your read on Gaiden and why you went from him being "conftown" to him being possibly scum so quickly
etc.-
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In post 332, Metal Sonic wrote:Lol when the heck did I have gaiden as possible scum so quickly?? Pretty sure I'm townreading him the whole time
In post 174, Metal Sonic wrote:true on that fact, i remember gaiden as the most useless lurker around
maybe he jus got a good role
this seemed to imply you were open to the possibility of Gaiden being scum. I'm asking how this makes sense when you had just said he was "conftown" - it felt more like you were just agreeing for the sake of it as opposed to actually believing it
even if I suddenly start thinking you're town, how does that change the fact that all my posting *up to* that point would have been blatantly wrong?-
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In post 337, Metal Sonic wrote:literally everything probably
this doesn't answer my question :/
as I said, I'm not just asking this for no reason-
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In post 334, Lia wrote:Is there a way of telling which posts come from one and which from the other? I'm guessing the majority are ns but it's not clear.
marquis uses all lowercase (except for ALLCAPS)
there are some exceptions to this but you can usually tell based on the timestamps
In post 335, Alchemist21 wrote:How often has MS seen you make long posts as Town? If that was the only time I could see him forgetting you could do that.
On the other hand, what he's doing with his Townread on you sounds like what he's doing with his Nacho read too.
On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you that
A) Nacho is Town?
B) MS is scum?
I'm fairly sure he knows that I usually put effort into games as town and can write extremely long posts when I want to deconstruct/respond to posts in-depth. I'm not sure if there was another instance where I specifically wrote a long post that early in the game, but due to the first sentence I would assume he would know it's not out of place for me.
I don't really like ranking ppl based on numbers like that , but if I had to answer: 9 for Nacho-town (the only thing giving me pause is that he keeps going inactive, but he does this as town and what he did while he *was* here was strongly town enough that I don't really have a problem with it), 8 or so for MS-scum (bc he's blatantly BS'ing here. the only thing giving me pause here is, as you said, the possibility that he is actually this much of a derp and went amnesic recently - but while he can be a derp as town, it's never this fucking ridiculous).-
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pieguyn
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*if* MS can't happen, Lia is the best shot at hitting scum
we're not fucking lynching Nacho. I'm about to pass out any second now so I can't elaborate on why in-depth, but this is his town game and there is nothing scummy about his recent posts.-
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In post 460, Metal Sonic wrote:holy shit pie I just reached out to you already I have. No fucking idea what I must do to get you to change now
Stop the act
I saw it. I don't have enough time at this point to break it down in depth, but nothing there was convincing.-
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in general, I don't like the way Lia handled the MS wagon.
she kept saying she was OK with lynching him and that she was seeing the case on him, but then kept searching for reasons to stay off the wagon. when she *did* have a concrete reason for MS being town (356), she did nothing to convince other people of it or actually explain why she thought it was town. I don't think she really cared about sorting MS here - it looked more like was just preparing to look better after MS flipped town.
her agreeing with the angle that Doduo is deliberately obfuscating heads is one thing that specifically makes me think this - I don't really think someone would actually find smth like that convincing.
Doduo is town bc of Marquis' play. I alluded to this earlier, but when Marquis is scum he usually relies on mass amounts of ATE and playing up how "emotional/genuine" he is in order to make ppl not realize he's not actually game solving. this isn't what he's doing here. his posting at DL is another thing that made me think he was likely town - his thoughts on Lia matched mine as I was reading through it, and his push on Nacho made sense even though I disagree with it.-
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In post 559, Lia wrote:They only started attacking me after this. It looks like they, or one of them, were catching up on page 16 then in 400 they started pushing for my lynch seemingly for the sole reason that I thought that they were making it difficult to read them.
except this is quite obviously not why they were pushing for your lynch. first off, both Marquis and notsci had said (416/426) that it was not about you pushing this but specifically the *way* in which you did it - that it felt more like you were just attempting to follow along with what MS was saying as opposed to pushing it yourself. second, Marquis cited (430) 356 as a reason for pushing you as scum - likely for the same reason I am (that it didn't feel like you *actually* wanted to do anything to shut down the pressure on MS here).
In post 560, Lia wrote:Only once did I say I was still ok with lynching MS after my scumread on him weakened and that was in 334, which was before I got a townread on him from 348, so to claim that I kept saying that is wrong. The claim that I kept searching for reasons to stay off the wagon is also wrong. My reason, that I didn't want to put him at L-1, remained the same while I was still scumreading him. If you'd wanted to know why I thought 348 was town you could have asked me but you didn't.
the entire point is that over the course of the game you did a lot to further the MS lynch, but didn't do anything to stop it once you supposedly had a town read on him
it doesn't matter why, specifically, you were reading 348 as town (although I can't say I'd mind if you justified it). what I'm saying is that, sans saying 348 was town, there was no further elaboration beyond that re: *why*, specifically, it was town.
fully explaining why you're town reading someone is a natural first step in attempting to push a town read/derail a lynch, but you didn't do this - it felt more like you were just giving a bullshit throwaway reason for MS being town in order to look better after he flipped
In post 560, Lia wrote:I wasn't "convinced" by that because I was already thinking that due to their refusal to clarify who was posting what.
what I was saying is that I would not expect anyone to actually think this is a good argument
I could break down specifically why but there's not much of a point. I'm more interested in specifically what strategic benefit you think there is for scum hydras obfuscating posts and how it applies to Doduo in this game (especially when you had outright said you had figured out how to tell who was posting what anyway).-
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In post 552, Honey bee wrote:I don't think his scum game is that simple but i want to figure out some info after that mess of a day. Their recent activity confuses me.
I'm pretty sure this is what he does in all of his scum games. the specific way he goes about it is different from game to game (the most recent game he acted lost all game and played up how apathetic he was and how he didn't have any reads, the game before that he basically did nothing the entire latter half of the game besides making 1 wall post every 2 days trying to look as genuine as possible), but there's the same pattern of emotional posting there.
In post 553, Nachomamma8 wrote:Where did your vote on me go?
this is probably not alignment indicative for reasons I will not elaborate on unless it's convenient for me.-
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In post 556, Nachomamma8 wrote:What were the reasons you were townreading Bee initially?
at that point it was entirely gut based on the way he was questioning me, I thought it looked somewhat genuine. after that the rest of his content looked town enough that I didn't have a problem with it.
In post 557, Nachomamma8 wrote:Why?
primarily bc of him switching off Gaiden and pushing you instead - part of me thought he saw the Gaiden push not going anywhere and MS still being a lead wagon and deciding to try out a different counterwagon to see where it'd go. it's obviously a moot point now, though.
the push on Gaiden itself I thought looked town half for the not-so-serious way he went about it (this is kind of biased bc in his scum game I remember he didn't really post like that whereas he did in his town game. either way it's not that strong of a tell) and half bc I thought what he was picking up on made sense for someone to think even though I didn't agree with it.-
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In post 567, Honey bee wrote:It's not something I've observed at least and it's not really something I believe will always try. What posts do you see here do you think can't come from his scum game?
it's not so much "these posts can't come from scum", it's that on a general level I feel the way he's approached most things in this game looks more like his town game than his scum game
as one example, the MS push. this is almost entirely gut, but the way he went about it didn't really feel manipulative. it felt a lot more natural and less like he was trying to look good off it or like he cared about his image, so to speak.
as another example, most of what he did at deadline - rather than lurking through it or sitting on the sidelines, there's a lot of activity, engagement, and you can tell he's trying to figure shit out. there's a lot of gut involved here but I didn't get the impression he cared about how he was coming across or trying to push an agenda with any of it. I wouldn't expect him to be engaged in the way that he was if he was scum here. from less of a meta standpoint, his thoughts on Lia at the end of D1 aligned with mine fairly closely and his thoughts on Nacho made sense to me even though I disagree with them.
In post 571, Lia wrote:Part of the reason for not elaborating on it was because it was a gut read. The post felt town. The rest was due to lack of time. But there is good stuff in that post. What do you think about what MS said about Doduo there?
them "not having reads on other players" is still a bad reason for scum reading them
it happened in this case bc they felt strongly MS was scum (similarly to me) and didn't see a need to form strong reads on other players or further engage him over it
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