Micro 592: Lovers Mafia GAME OVER

[itlepip]

This is good play from SS which probably means he is scum. Don't like Suzune's 19, seems to be early buddying

[v Suzune[/v]

May have already caught the scum team :P

[itlepip]

VOTE: Suzune

[itlepip]

Yes because I joked about catching the scum team I must be scum. (ಠ_ಠ)

[itlepip]

Nice dumbtell there, I'd give it about a 6/10.

[itlepip]

Actually I think that may be a scumslip. Basically Suzune is claiming to be a lover in a setup where only mafia are lovers.

[itlepip]

"There are 4 Townies and 2 Mafia Lovers."

Doesn't that imply that the lovers are only mafia?

[itlepip]

Alright

1) There are 4 Townies and 2 Mafia Lovers.
2) If any Lover is killed, their Lover will immediately commit suicide.
3) This is a Nightless setup and there are no night kills.
4) Town wins when all Lovers are dead.
5) Mafia wins when there are only 2 Townies left.

All of these, especially 4 + 5, seem to point to mafia being lovered with each other. SS you explained this setup to me why are you getting it wrong now?

[itlepip]

I mean this game is just over right? We lynch Suzune who scumslipped and then we win right?

[itlepip]

Smart being very apologetic and removing fault if this turns out to be a ML, noted. He's not wrong though.

VOTE: Suz

WTF if this turns out to be a ML? Is this just some godlike scumstrat to save the game or what the hell? Why are you immediately calling Suzune to be a ML?

[itlepip]

That doesn't answer the question why are you certain that Suzune is a mislynch? You are doing the exact thing you are accusing SS of by preparing a lynch tomorrow of SS assuming Suzune is a miss WHICH SHE ISN'T!

Stop preparing a lynch tomorrow if you think suzune just slipped. I agree that in a normal game connection can be drawn between Suzune and SS but not in a game where the first scum lynch just ends the fricken game.

Pedit: Holy shit dude. Scratch what I said about Suzune/SS I'm pretty sure its you and suzune given how hard you are doubtcasting that lynch.

[itlepip]

FS, the slip is that Suzune claimed fairly directly that she was a lover with someone in a setup where only mafia are lovers.

[itlepip]

Well it would be easy to catch them if you were scum. Careful that puts me at L-2, it would not be wise to speed lynch.

Typically speaking I end up with a mafia lover more often then not

, assuming we are playing the same way my little group does on skype. Where the mafia is paired with a random townie. However, I would not like to rush lynch because too lucky kills a townie and a mafia could end the game for us.

Read both of these and ask yourself "Is Suzune a lover with someone" when you realize the answer the obviously yes, then guess what Suzune claimed lover which in a setup where only the mafia are lovers mean she is claiming mafia. I am not going to lose a game to outed mafia.

[itlepip]

We've been over this. In order for mafia to get lynched all of town needs to be convinced to vote for you. SS was right but his replacement might not be. One of Maestro and FS are seriously misguided town, and the unconfirmed is probably confTown by PoE and I also need to convince. I'm sorry but when mafia full on slip their role I'm not willing to lose to them.

[itlepip]

You probably honestly, you are leading the whole "its not suzune brigade' fairly well after I pointed out you denied trying to divert attention away from that wagon.

[itlepip]

Like I am 100% confident that suzune is scum here and I am not willing to change my vote. If you guys want to mess around and use our mislynch first before ending the game I don't care, but I see no reason to ever vote anywhere else than the obvious outed mafia. Someone being able to backtrack doesn't mean that what they said originally should be forgiven. "I claim cop" oops I meant medic sorry guys my bad!

[itlepip]

WTF kind of question is that? If the the literally confirmed scum isn't actually scum, who else is scum?

[itlepip]

Maestro
lovelygiant
Fire Starter
chilledtea
Suzune
itlepip


Well since I'm town, chilled tea is town, and Suzune is most likely town.

That leaves you, giant, and pip. Would prefer if giant were to post, but happy with any of those three.

Yeah go over all of those.

Maestro FS would probably be a start if and only if we always kill suzune tomorrow if FS flips town.

[itlepip]

What the hell, its not like he is posting anywhere else on the site either.

[itlepip]

I might be included in that.

[itlepip]

prodge.

[itlepip]

oh thank god im town lmao

ok so i read this thread as soon as i PM'd kirroha saying I'd replace in since I figured it's only 7 pages so not much lost even if she does have someone else already.

VOTE: itlepip

I can't believe there aren't any other votes on this. Suzune is blatant town and his push on her is utter crap. He's frustrated scum because he thought he could force through a mislynch with the "slip" which wasn't at all a slip and then when the wagon dissipated you can see him pout about it here:

Bull fucking shit. While I think Suzune's play outside of the slip has been fairly good, it doesn't matter.

Like I am 100% confident that suzune is scum here and I am not willing to change my vote. If you guys want to mess around and use our mislynch first before ending the game I don't care, but I see no reason to ever vote anywhere else than the obvious outed mafia. Someone being able to backtrack doesn't mean that what they said originally should be forgiven. "I claim cop" oops I meant medic sorry guys my bad!

but then i read the guy i was replacing and was like "oh frick i might be scum with itle oh goddamn that'll suck since i already have a genuine read but won't be able to safely use it"

Wtf does that have to do with anything

Suzune's thing wasn't a slip btw. She blatantly misunderstood the game and was never claiming lover; she was suggesting she was the unknowing target of a lover (from what I understand)? If she was scum she would've actually understood the role mechanics so I'm like positive that was a townslip since it was so damn genuine

It doesn't matter how genuine it is, she understood the game that there lover pairs, said that she knew she was a lover with someone but didn't know whether that person was scum or town. Agreeing to her lynch in a spot where she could easily in her mind just be paired with town shows that she knew at that point that she got caught. Look I understand reading Suzune's thing as genuine, and I understand not knowing the setup. But explain to me the town mentality after reading a role PM saying you are a vanilla town assuming you are a lover with someone and talking about how that person might be mafia so its okay. It reads exactly like scum trying to go for a gambit so they don't get lynched.

[itlepip]

Typically speaking in setups of this nature, the mafia is paired secretly with the townies. That is the assumption I am working under and the one I am most familiar with. I saw nothing in the rules suggesting otherwise.

The mafia don't know who their partners are in her setup, and so unless it is literally RNG

someone

has to know if they are lovers are not. Suzune claimed that she was lovers with mafia so getting lynched is fine but be careful about lynching too fast since another mislynch on top of this would cause the game to end.

[itlepip]

Using that logic scum should be Maestro and itlepip. But it's rarely ever that easy.

No because Maestro is the person that fricken killed my Suzune thing in the first place, which is why I am pretty sure that he is scum with suzune and just no one is seeing this but me. SS fricken saw it too and was arguing that he was the one that actually pulled the slip by playing along with it or whatever.

Nahdia, who the hell is my partner, cause this game feels like I've been talking to fricken walls.

[itlepip]

Here gimme a sec I'll actually read this game now.

[itlepip]

Okay ignoring Suzune for a moment Chilledtea is pretty obv scum here. This is the play where scum buddy someone to try to get a tertiary ML and then when they catch flak they vote there to prove they aren't partners. CT never had any good reason for town reading me and is just WKing

[itlepip]

Also watch CT's vote suddenly get really sticky now that I figured him out.

[itlepip]

Wait Nahdia do you actually support a fire lynch, what happened to 'pip is confscum'?

[itlepip]

If maestro is scum not with suzune, he just blames the miss on me or SS and gets a free win. I figured out why other people think suzune is town, still not as convinced.

[itlepip]

Chilledtea I think I have expressed is pretty obvious scum based on his recent play, I can make a case soon.

[itlepip]

There is a lot to talk about here, the main point against chilledtea is really in his mentality of the game, but there are scummy things and nontowny things that are going to be addressed. Generally tea has been playing this game 100% by PoE. He starts off with 3 townreads, which if he was right regardless of his alignment we would win by lynching within fire/LG

Well that was relatively quick.

I think firestarter and lovelygiant are scum.

The reasons being, I think suzune is not scum and genuinely made a mistake in understanding her role. I think Maestro is town. He has been pretty aggressive and also sensible in his approach to this game. I think itlepip is town because of his initial reads of suzune.

It isn't that firestarter's starting post (3) was that indicative. But by process of elimination, and also because of what he has posted till now, I don't get the confidence from him that he is town.

It is worth pointing out that already tea has townread everyone who has actually produced any content. LG and FS are scumreads just because they haven't produced content and therefore are PoEd. Now this style of play does a few things. First literally every post assumes that tea is town as a major piece of analysis. Second lets look at the content. Suzune is town because the slips isn't 100% alignment indicative, I think there is a reasonable case for why this is scummy (a false townslip that can't be pushed means that that person is town because it got harder to push them), but the key is that tea is jumping way to early at reads. Same thing with the read on me, while I appreciate the townread scumPip can make logical posts so that townread was also premature imo. Finally, remembering that FS and LG are scum

by PoE, He doesn't even mention Maestro!

. Like he is scumreading two people because everyone else is town, but 2 of those reads are super weak and the other is nonexistant.

I still think lg is scum. Firestarter is probably town, I like Maestro for town. Which means one of suzzune and itlepip are scum, and I think it might be itlepip. Although I agreed with his initial read of suzzune.

LG coming back after my vote on him and then buddying me. I don't like that.

Look at that 100% flipflop. He still hasn't explained his townread on FS or Maestro at all, and now his top two town are now scum.

I am not sure of either of you. Hmm.

I think we should still go for lovelygiant/Nadia. I think her entry with "thank god I am town" could be fake.

And it changes again... The issue here is that tea's original post force him to push exactly 1 world, when that world doesn't look easy to push scumTea is forced to change his reads so he can push something. Tea's whose thing has been you don't have to explain townreads cause people are 66% likely to be town, but since he is PoEing all of his scumreads this style lets him scumread whoever he wants for the oppurtunism. There is no sense of town trying to solve the game, but scum giving themselves an easy way to generate fake reads.

Nahdia, who the hell is my partner, cause this game feels like I've been talking to fricken walls.

chilledtea or Fire Starter. from what i've seen so far I'd probably lean towards the latter.

Allright, so I will just assume you think it is Firestarter + Itlepip as the team.

In my eyes, you are good. I am good.

I am ok with firestarter lynch for today. I am not feeling itlepip as scum.

Now he changes off of me again and flips on another one of his townreads for absolutely no known reason.

You know.
VOTE: itlepip

I just hope you are not scum now.

Now he is voting for his townread that he expresses as a townread just because he was under pressure for townreading me. But since I'm town he doesn't have any qualms voting me to lower the pressure.

I mean, if itlepip is scum I get to learn something. If he was town I was right all along. So it is kinda win-win.

There are 4 town, 2 scum. In this game you don't need a good reason town read someone, you need a good reason to scum read someone.

This post I've talked about already but it is worth pointing out that it is just wrong. You are never allowed just to read something without reason, for the reasons already mentionned it is really fricken bad. Also a 66% read is not close to high enough percent to be able to point to that stats to justify the read.

There is a 66% chance a person is town in this game. And that is if you pick them randomly. If someone seems in sync with your thoughts then it is better to go along with their thoughts, no?

Anyways. If I am scum, I would be super dumb to try and buddy someone like this. Like my chances of getting lynched is 16% and that is if you pick me randomly. This is why I thought that scum would try to not be too aggressive.

This post is just bad. Tea is trying to justify his mentality this game of BS townreads and then PoE scumreads on the others whomever is easiest at that time to push.

Distancing in this game means nothing. Just assume there is one scum and remove one of the scum reads from your list. That is what this game is now.

This post doesn't make any sense and probably cover for him not distancing enough from his partner, who is probably? Firestarter but could be most other people as well.

Lol I don't even care man.

VOTE: chilledtea

There. Hammer if you want.

This isn't scummy in and of itself but it also is not enough to townread. He unvotes as soon as it looks like he actually might be hammered so it was a gambit in the first place.

By self-voting I made it one vote easier for scum to get a mislynch. Look at Maestro - he is basically licking his lips with opportunism in that post.

Trying to get towncred and push someone, this also could be compensating for lack of ever scumreading Maestro since it never looks like Maestro will get lynched here but then that gambit from Maestro was super bold.

By the way that self-vote was 100% emotional in nature. I kinda got scared that maybe I might have lynched myself and then checked to see I was L-1

AtE

Okay, ignoring the "buddying" nonsense, I feel like itlepip is town. I went through his ISO once again.

I think that Maestro + Suzzune is the likely team. Suzzune giving up and apologising to the town is the only thing that is making me unsure of her. Which brings to a good question asked by Nahdia (why would Maestro defend suzzune).

Nahdia, apart from possible teams PoE, why do you want to lynch firestarter?

I would also like to hear from firestarter. And itlepip's case. That is very important.

Now it is Maestro + Suzune, at this point he has called every slot in the game scum and is still townreading people enough to PoE.... Literally the very next post he assumes that Suzune is town!!! Like this is grade A example of scum cog dis where they care more about making reasonable sounding posts than keeping a narrative that makes one iota of sense. Like all of his posts are okay by themselves, but Tea's ISO makes absolutely no sense from town.

If we were to assume that suzzune is town (which is likely because there is risk in faking emotions like that as scum - difficult to imagine in this setup) :

Maestro defends Suzzune

Itlepip attacks Suzzune

Firestarter defends Suzzune

Nahdia defends Suzzune

SS attacked Suzzune - but I didn't think much of it - in similar ways to lovely.

There was at least one scum who defended Suzzune. Itlepip and SS are the only ones who went offensive actually - so the theory that Suzzune was likely going to get lynched doesn't seem valid.

I feel a lot better about Nahdia so lets take it out.

At least one scum in {Firestarter, Maestro}. That is the conclusion I am getting to.

If itlepip is town then both firestarter and maestro are scum. If itlepip is scum then it is one of them.

Re-reading Maestro's ISO makes me like him. I don't remember if I thought he was town or scum initially. But he got paranoid about SS and I am going to consider that, that was not fake.

Under this analysis, a team of Firestarter + itlepip is possible. However this is under several assumptions :
1) Suzzune is town.
2) I am town (obv).

The only thing I don't like about itlepip is he actually changed his viewpoints regarding Suzzune after initially saying that under no circumstance he was going to change his vote. He was confident that Suzzune is scum and has scumslipped. It was under that assumption that he thought Maestro and Suzzune were scumpartners. If he were to change his thoughts regarding Suzzune then his thoughts regarding Maestro and others - specifically SS (or myself) will change.

We can see that firestarter is enjoying the show from the sidelines. What made me suspicious of lovely was exactly that, and nahdia is active.

UNVOTE:

I am personally ok with firestarter lynch. I am not so sure of Maestro now. I guess in a fit of emotion I thought Maestro was indeed scum, but if he was considering itlepip as scum initially and only changed his views because itle thought I was obvscum, then it makes sense for him to consider itlepip as scum if he didn't hammer me.

[itlepip]

Hey, you are the one who is saying it doesn't make sense from town. Which means you need to work on understanding what makes sense and what doesn't.

I think it is acceptable if reads fluctuate a lot on day 1. I have very little to go on, and until the self-vote there wasn't much happening. Literally the only things that happened this game is suzzune misunderstanding her role/faking her misunderstanding and me "buddying" and self-voting.

Yes but expecting people to actually explain any of their reads are apparently way to much to ask. You are not allowed to on one hand have strong enough townreads to PoE the scum(ie everyone at different times in the game) and then turn around and say not enough happened to have strong reads.

Also if I re-read the thread and have a different opinion that makes me scum?

When each new opinion is just oppurtunism and none of them are ever explained or make any sense, yes this is just an excuse to pick on what you think are currently easier targets.

Appeal to emotion means something other than what you have assumed.

No it doesn't, it was trying to get fake towncred for having 'genuine' emotions.

I also withdrew my self-vote because, it is kinda against my win condition. Your argument regarding 66% and 16% is dumb because it comes from the perspective that I am already scum. That is classic confirmation bias. You are saying that I am using them as excuse, but you KNOW that it is still correct.

No it isn't. First off the odds are for town 40% and 60% for scum and town respectively, and using if you really need me to I can explain why all the stat stuff is bs. TLDR: You are manipulating statistics to justify things that you don't have any right to justify by assuming things that are incorrect. A town randomly guessing 2 townreads correctly is 36% of the time which is horrible odds.

Yeah, 66% is good enough. Maybe that is why reads are fluctuating.

No it isn't. You aren't allowed to say that someone is town because people are more likely to be town.

Meanwhile Mr. ittlepip "chilled is scum because his reads are fluctuating" what is your opinion regarding suzzune? probscum
What is your opinion regarding Something_Smart? obvscum
What is your opinion regarding Maestro? null-slight townlean based on recent posts.

LOL. Your reads have fluctuated as well. It means nothing. This is day 1 not day 5 where "reads are fluctuating" is a scumtell. I mean, I understand fluctuating reads are a scumtell but when there is no reason for the fluctuation. It is also important to understand how strongly one is feeling about their scumreads.

YOU HAVEN"T JUSTIFIED ANY OF YOUR READS! You don't say 'not really sure about this read' and then correct it later to explain why it changed, you just jump on whatever is the easiest to push.

Maestro was the only one I think I genuinely fluctuated on. Like I did think he was scum for his statement. But now I don't.

Suzune you called town and then scum and then town and then top scum and then basically confTown. I went from town to scum to town. FS, Nahdia, have both been called town and scum by you.

Also, other than PoE there isn't much you can do anyway on page 4. I find it amusing that you think I will have ton load of evidence regarding my town reads when nobody does.

PoE only works when you have really strong townreads, you aren't allowed to PoE with RVS reads because the odds of catching scum are basically akin to just out of a hat. Like why don't you just roll a die for your scumreads?

This is good play from SS which probably means he is scum. Don't like Suzune's 19, seems to be early buddying

[v Suzune[/v]

May have already caught the scum team :P

VOTE: Suzune

So Suzzune is scum.

That doesn't answer the question why are you certain that Suzune is a mislynch? You are doing the exact thing you are accusing SS of by preparing a lynch tomorrow of SS assuming Suzune is a miss WHICH SHE ISN'T!

Stop preparing a lynch tomorrow if you think suzune just slipped. I agree that in a normal game connection can be drawn between Suzune and SS but not in a game where the first scum lynch just ends the fricken game.

Pedit: Holy shit dude. Scratch what I said about Suzune/SS I'm pretty sure its you and suzune given how hard you are doubtcasting that lynch.

Oh Ok. Maestro is scum.

Maestro
lovelygiant
Fire Starter
chilledtea
Suzune
itlepip


Well since I'm town, chilled tea is town, and Suzune is most likely town.

That leaves you, giant, and pip. Would prefer if giant were to post, but happy with any of those three.

Yeah go over all of those.

Maestro FS would probably be a start if and only if we always kill suzune tomorrow if FS flips town.

Huh? Firestarter.

I didn't like his post, so there is a known reason why I could call him scum, but if you look I never actually do, what is your point here?

Using that logic scum should be Maestro and itlepip. But it's rarely ever that easy.

No because Maestro is the person that fricken killed my Suzune thing in the first place, which is why I am pretty sure that he is scum with suzune and just no one is seeing this but me. SS fricken saw it too and was arguing that he was the one that actually pulled the slip by playing along with it or whatever.

Nahdia, who the hell is my partner, cause this game feels like I've been talking to fricken walls.

Okay ignoring Suzune for a moment Chilledtea is pretty obv scum here. This is the play where scum buddy someone to try to get a tertiary ML and then when they catch flak they vote there to prove they aren't partners. CT never had any good reason for town reading me and is just WKing

Something Smart is scum.

If maestro is scum not with suzune, he just blames the miss on me or SS and gets a free win. I figured out why other people think suzune is town, still not as convinced.

SS is town again.

I never called SS town here, I was talking about a particular hypothetical of asssuming Maestro is scum with someone that isn't Suzune, which I don't think is likely but is useful to consider. I don't actually believe that you are town or that Maestro is particularly scummy.

See, I can do that too.

I mean, the only people you have left to scum read are nahdia and yourself. And probably because lovelygiant was lurking/inactive.

I'm townreading Nahdia dude, wtf are you talking about. Scum are 2 probably between you fire and Suzune.

[itlepip]

WTL
Suzune:Always and forever
ChilledTea: Yes
Fire:I guess.
Maestro: at deadline sure, but is probably a miss, liked recent play and have too many scumreads.
Nahdia:no

[itlepip]

Didn't we already go over that me and Maestro are never together because he killed the momentum on my Suzune push? Like I'm not positive that Maestro is town but I feel like there are better targets here.

I will say though that I couldn't care less about most your analysis b/c all of it assumes that you are town which is kinda scummy and overall just useless.

[itlepip]

Is this seriously the play. Basically ever thing player in this game has scumread everyone else at some point in this game. If you want to find the possible partner's of tea look at the people who are running away from that lynch as soon as anyone creates any bit of analysis that isn't pointing out how obvious scum he is.

[itlepip]

Suzune.

[itlepip]

Wait I'm not actually lynched here am I?

Nahdia screw you.

[itlepip]

I'm not hammered here, the only people voting me are you and tea.

Also Nahdia ftr this reaction test has never worked. Even when people are scum and think they are lynched I have never seen them admit they are scum. In a dram game I spent 5 pages giving reads and stuff as a lynched towny and then flipped scum. Its annoying because I actually thought I was killed here which I think makes a game that is nearly auto from page 2 into a potential loss is insanely dumb.

[itlepip]

Because if mafia really slipped page 2 of a game and we don't ever lynch them I am going to be so fricken pissed. I think that you may have a higher chance of flipping scum but I refuse to ever lose to Suzune here.

[itlepip]

Also what happens if we do hit deadline, do we just lose a lynch or what?

[itlepip]

"We as town" is a phrase that almost always comes from mafia, its trying to force the idea that you are part of town but usually it comes across as forced and fake. Here it is really obvious, 'As town' does nothing for that sentence and is just trying.

Suzune tea 2016!

VOTE: Tea

[itlepip]

It should be interesting to see who puts the rest of the two votes on me. Chances are both scum will be on this train. If we assume ittlepip's one of the scum, either maestro or thesoldier will have to vote me if not both. Thesoldier's opinion was that I am not scum because I am not likely to be anyone's partner.

Great analysis there mate, if you are town in a 6p setup than if you get lynched if the 1 person off of your wagon is town(which is true 3/5s of the time)

than all of scum is on your wagon!!!

Also chilledtea if I was scum why would I not have hammered you when maestro put you at L-1 and was pressuring me to lynch you?

[itlepip]

VOTE: Pip

[itlepip]

Guys everyone selfvote so we can find scum cause they can't selfvote.

[itlepip]

VOTE: Tea

[itlepip]

/prods everyone.

[itlepip]

Sorry tea, this is what you get for not just sheeping me on Suzune and winning the game.

[itlepip]

Pulling a Plot

Page 1:
FS intro post
Maestro attacks intro

CT

defends FS and attacks Maestro
Suzune defends Maestro
I call Suzune scum with a weak scum on SS

CT

scumreads me
Page 2:
Suzune has her potential slip
Both Me and

CT

scumread Suzune

CT

gets voted by Suzune

CT

votes Suzune
Maestro votes Suzune
Maestro unvotes for paranoia
Page 3:
I call Maestro scum for trying to call Suzune a ML
Maestro votes

CT

CT

calls Maestro/Suzune team
Maestro calls Suzune town because she can only be scum with Sold or Nahd

CT

calls Nahd/Sold scum team

CT

votes Nahd
Maestro wants me to find Suzune’s partner and I say its him
Sold reads

CT

, Suzune town – scum by POE
Suzune, Maestro town, Me town for push,

CT

scum for push, Sold scum lean for weak arguments. This readlist is really bad. It is early but it is completely opposite Suzune’s current world. Maestro's bouncing around makes me not like him that much, but his entrance was good. (also has a good chance of being with Suzune which I still think is reasonable).

[itlepip]

Lets just do Maestro and let me yell at you guys about Suzune postgame

VOTE: Maestro

[itlepip]

VOTE: RC Literally just confirmed scum. I guess in the end I was wrong about Suzune, fuck me.

Also analysis for this. People were already throwing around Maestro and The Soldier pre replacement as a likely scumteam. If RC votes me then what? I can't be with RC or Maestro in the case. I'm confirmed not with Suzune and Nahdia has A. Put serious pressure on me this game and B. Is basically just confTown. So if RC votes me then I am just confTown.

RC didn't get as much as a confTown vibe so the only possible person he can put with me is Nahdia so he votes her since he can't vote me and Maestro is his partner.

Basically what happened here is that a scum replacement didn't fully understand the gamestate and slipped.

[itlepip]

VOTE: nahdia

[itlepip]

Me and Maestro ftr

[itlepip]

nno objections