Micro 635 - 09:12 (Game Over)

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: A Simple Plan

[eagerSnake]

FoS: Maverick1102. Scumteam identified.

[eagerSnake]

FoS: Maverick1102. Scumteam identified.

Serious or not serious?

As serious as one can be on the 19th post of the game LOL

[eagerSnake]

Sure. I am testing a tell that I can't fully explain without a bit of effort but it has to do with something I think scum does regularly on their first couple posts in a game. A Simple Plan was the closest to it so without much to go on they get my vote. Then Maverick1102s naked vote on me I didn't like because I just played a game with him where I was scum and I feel like he thinks he can make me easy lynchbait here which he would want to do as scum. Also I remember him being more charismatic and organic which I obviously don't feel that on a naked vote

Basically just did it so I could have a record and see how right/wrong I was in the end

[eagerSnake]

Maverick's on V/LA, so wouldn't it be natural to attribute his lack of charisma/explanation to that?

Yeah I considered it

[eagerSnake]

Basically it has to do with how scum doesn't know how different town groups feel about what is scummy at the beginning of a game so they like to keep their options open and ask questions about what others think is scummy. Maybe play both sides of a discussion, ask things like "who is scum" "what do you think about X" which is basically asking "am I a suspect" or "did I do anything suspicious"

[eagerSnake]

I think snake has 0 clue what is going on, so he latched onto the one thing he does have, which is his metaread, and tried to use that as a basis for a push to move the game forward. I like that. During RVS, town is clueless and scum holds all the cards, so this cluelessness and accompanying attempt to push the game forward(trying to get a better idea of the game) reads as town to me.

I think I know what's going on at least.

[eagerSnake]

He was the closest to it I saw at first did you see anyone else that fits the script better

[eagerSnake]

Pretty sure ASP is scum lol

Umlaut or Maverick for partner (maverick will prob be obvtown if he's town so should be easy)

[eagerSnake]

if I'm town, I want to at least assure that I'm not the NK because I value my analysis more late-game than early, and being too obvtown makes me a target.

I don't think any of us real townies are worried about being NKed because their analysis late-game is too valuable. Thats actually really selfish thinking. Only people that should be worried about being NKed would be PRs. Townies can express whatever they need to in the thread and if they get killed great now everything they said is confirmed voice of a townie.

If I were a townie, I'd take the bullet for a PR any day.

[eagerSnake]

Hell, I'd probably take the bullet for another townie as long as they weren't like widely scum read just because I know I'm easy Lynchbait and kinda don't want to survive to endgame because IDK if I'd be able to convince the other townie the other guy is scum and that I'm town or maybe I might make the wrong choice on who I even vote for.

[eagerSnake]

4 questions in 1 post alright

Sure enough for now
For now
Also haven't liked or agreed with anything he had to say yet

Have you?

[eagerSnake]

Well Maverick may shed some light when he comes in tomorrow.

[eagerSnake]

What has ASP done to give him town points and not be the lynch

[eagerSnake]

Why are you surprised by that

[eagerSnake]

I'm not.

GuiltyLion and Accountant have moved into my town block.


0x40 had moved into my scum block

Umlaut and Maverick are still in my scum block.

ASP is still my vote.

[eagerSnake]

Well how's anything going to be going on if everyone has that attitude

[eagerSnake]

I thought he was already l-1

[eagerSnake]

I'm having trouble sorting BTD6_maker

[eagerSnake]

0x40 what's the case against Accountant

[eagerSnake]

ASP who are the two scums and why

Thanks

[eagerSnake]

Lycanfire do you have prior knowledge of ASP?

[eagerSnake]

I ask you one question and you say I'm being ridiculous. Its no wonder I'm still sring you

[eagerSnake]

Your interpretation relies on the assumption that scum will defend their partner if they are BWed and also that scum wouldn't bus their partner

[eagerSnake]

:*(

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: 0x40

[eagerSnake]

I'm not voting myself..

[eagerSnake]

0x40 is L-1

[eagerSnake]

Are you some kind of copycat

[eagerSnake]

Oh does that make it better than my post

[eagerSnake]

Do you still think ASP is scum

[eagerSnake]

That was @Accountant

[eagerSnake]

I don't agree with the lycanfite town read @BTD

[eagerSnake]

So you think it's 0x40 and ASP?

[eagerSnake]

That's an interesting policy

[eagerSnake]

As a general rule of thumb your vote should always be on the person you want to see dead next.

[eagerSnake]

I would assume the same rule applies as scum with the added reasoning of sometimes voting who you want people to think you want dead next. Because for example if there's a conftown you obviously would want them dead next as scum, but don't want to show it by voting them

[eagerSnake]

Ah youre right replace the word dead with lynched in my post 181

[eagerSnake]

So tell me why you put ASP to L1
And why X40 is now L1

How about you tell us what gives them town points

[eagerSnake]

You should have let him give his thoughts beforehand instead of trying to convince him in my opinion

[eagerSnake]

Blatant anti town behavior, Vedith.

I typed a vote on you but backspaced it only because I want to give you a chance

[eagerSnake]

Now tell me again what 0x40 or ASP has done to give them town points

[eagerSnake]

I never said you said town don't misrep

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: Vedith

Policy of lynching anti town players.

To answer you anyway as to why ASP and 0x40 were scum is that everyone starts off equally scum and as they earn town points they drop on my list. ASP and 0x40 did absolutely nothing to earn them any town points in my eyes, I should mention here neither did your slot, so they were still at the top of my list

[eagerSnake]

Playing anti town as town is for retards. Not lynching these players is retarded.

[eagerSnake]

Kthxbai

[eagerSnake]

See you all d2

[eagerSnake]

"I'm always anti town so don't view my scummy thoughts as scum"-retarded anti town play

"OK sure go ahead"-also retarded to allow it to happen

[eagerSnake]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

There ya go

[eagerSnake]

He also hasn't done anything to get town points and is in the same boat as ASP and 0x40 with the addition of blatant anti town behavior

Unless you see where he gets points

[eagerSnake]

But alas I don't want to quicklynch anyone I would like to give them time

[eagerSnake]

<-- high functioning aspergers syndrome (idiot savant)

[eagerSnake]

my apologies accountant & everyone else

[eagerSnake]

I'll always be biased to ASP being town. So what about it?

You won't be getting my thoughts until I feel you deserve them.

I'm never pro town.
I also never said that x40 was town or even asp for that matter, I asked why they are scum

Explain to me why you thought I said town.

I don't see how you don't see this as anti town behavior.

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: ASP

Both ASP and 0x40 are at l-2 now I believe.

I am eagerly awaiting Vedith analysis of both players.

[eagerSnake]

Are you back?

[eagerSnake]

Lol is he really

[eagerSnake]

Do you think you could be wrong

[eagerSnake]

But you're sure that ASP is town yeah?

[eagerSnake]

I'm here, I'm here. Vedith, you changed your avatar, and as much as I like Mint-Berry Crunch, that's gonna take some getting used to.

Getting dinner, I'll be back in a bit.

Calling this a prodge

[eagerSnake]

Yeah but I feel that's not really how it's been going down though Vedith

[eagerSnake]

Like at all

[eagerSnake]

I feel like your analysis of the game is biased

I'm not clueless

[eagerSnake]

Accountant how are you reading Vedith rn scum/town/null

[eagerSnake]

I'm still thinking about it.. I'll prob decide within a couple hours

[eagerSnake]

Yeah I'm waiting until I put my daughter in crib for nap so I can actually think through it clearly and without distraction
I basically skimmed it

[eagerSnake]

I feel like if I lynch Vedith then a few things come out of it if he's scum:
1) We lynched a scum
2) Accountant is conftown by association to Vedith!scum
3) Guarantee that either ASP or 0x40 is scum by association to Vedith!scum therefore we win the game

And a few things come out if he's town:
1) Lose a townie
2) Accountant is probscum
3) ASP is conftown by Vediths foolproof metaread and by association to accountant!scum
4) 0x40 is conftown by association to accountant!scum
5) other scum is in: BTD, Umlaut, GL, Lycan

I'm very curious if ASP has the same foolproof metaread on Vedith as Vedith claims on ASP

And also if ASP backs up the claim that Vedith can read him like a book, and has never been wrong about his alignment (unless it furthered his wincon)

[eagerSnake]

Need to see what comes out with lynching Accountant here whether town/scum but I really hadn't considered lynching Accountant at all this game as I have them tr the entire game

[eagerSnake]

I have proof of both Vedith and ASP being VT and Vedith lynched ASP D1

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7165792

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: Vedith

[eagerSnake]

Out of {Vedith, 0x40, ASP} I'm fairly sure there are two scum in here. For example, if Vedith is scum it seems likely that he is trying to defend his partner and appear as though he hates both wagons. If Vedith is scum, one of the other two probably is as well.

And if I'm town?

What was this post about

[eagerSnake]

Does it help you determine his alignment?

[eagerSnake]

Because, quite frankly, I only see the reasoning of AtE for this question, trying to subtly put doubt in his head so he will rethink voting you

I do this as scum 100%

[eagerSnake]

Well I'm not lynching my tr from like, the entire game, so do you have any other compromise?

[eagerSnake]

Vedith is actually L-2

[eagerSnake]

Also, I don't consider ASPs response to prod as a game-related/game-advancing post

[eagerSnake]

That was my first non newbie game on the site. Is this all you have?

Just saying. You're the one who said

I don't think I've ever mis read him. ASP to confirm.

[eagerSnake]

Lol you mean you are actually able to post something more than a vote Lycanfire?

[eagerSnake]

I really want to know what ASP and 0x40 (or the replacement) have to say about Vedith hard defending them.

I want to know what a lot of people think about a lot of things but I don't think we're ever gonna find out

[eagerSnake]

So now you're calling GuiltyLion scum... and Accountant.. my 2 trs from like, the entire game....

[eagerSnake]

Why would a GL!scum defend a Vedith!town

[eagerSnake]

Hey DarkLightA, I'm here all day if you have any questions

[eagerSnake]

Are we gonna be able to agree on a lynch?

[eagerSnake]

Vedith and ASP are the scum, though

just because he didn't push either one of them doesn't make them town

[eagerSnake]

While the amount of misreps is true I don't think that makes him scum, I don't think he could be scum with Vedith mostly

[eagerSnake]

Yeah but as scum why put so much in the post if he doesnt have to

wall post just gets attention

[eagerSnake]

This is possibly

a thinly-veiled attempt at AtE. (

I know this for sure.

This is possibly...I know this for sure

Yeah lol I don't get that contradiction either but w/e nai

[eagerSnake]

"Forget Accountant for now. GuiltyLion is scum."

"For now let's just lynch Lycan."


w-w-w-what?

[eagerSnake]

Aristophanes, entrance, please!

[eagerSnake]

Aristophanes, entrance, please!

Hi! I've read most of the game (up to page 14). It's kinda sad it's still on the same page as when I replaced in.

Eager, I need to know your experience with Mafia.
Do you have offside games prior to joining here? Are you an alt? How many on site games do you have?

I've got thousands of games of experience from IRC mafia like 6 years ago. Other than that I've only played about 2-3 forum games on-site no off site forums. Play on epic mafia since a couple days ago

[eagerSnake]

I'm being lazy rn so I haven't read any of the last few posts in detail

[eagerSnake]

Anyone out there think this is TvT

[eagerSnake]

Lol that guy called me scum and voted me

[eagerSnake]

What do you think of calling Aristophanes calling me scum Vedith

[eagerSnake]

Your answer - if perfect - could cause me to change my vote

[eagerSnake]

So you are voting DarkLightA who is 0x40s replacement?

[eagerSnake]

What do you think of calling Aristophanes calling me scum Vedith

I don't read too much into it yet. Can be distacing, can be pushing an easier looking target, regardless I'm not worried that you're scum right now.
I would like to know what Ari thinks about my read on his slot.

I also don't give a shit if you leave your vote on me or not.

Distancing? Like as if I'm scum?

[eagerSnake]

Psh if I don't have a read on me or you think I'm scum something's wrong (ur prob scum) because I have double the posts of anyone else itg

[eagerSnake]

Wait is that the guy who called me town but is now calling me scum and voting me

[eagerSnake]

Like is that really the same guy?

[eagerSnake]

Wait, no, I'm dumb. Those are two different people. I hate having so many replacement names to keep up with

[eagerSnake]

I'm just going to come out and

Claim: obvtown

For all those who didn't get the memo

[eagerSnake]

Why DarkLight is not commenting on any of Umlauts post but is commenting on mine

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: A Simple Plan

[eagerSnake]

It's ASP and Vedith I called it on page 1

[eagerSnake]

Okay, I've decided.

Scum is ASP and Vedith.

But nobody will listen to me so VOTE: DarkLightA

[eagerSnake]

I decided that a long time ago and said why a long time ago

[eagerSnake]

Why the hell u guys want to lynch my trs?

[eagerSnake]

Wait, Vedith already left the Aristo wagon, so I can vote whomever I want.

VOTE: A Simple Plan

This guys knows

[eagerSnake]

That ASP is scum like I said on page 1


Of course I also said you were scum on the next post/same page so I can understand why you wouldn't be inclined to believe it

[eagerSnake]

OK GuiltyLion claim

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: BTD6_Maker

Because I tr GL

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: Unvote

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: Umlaut

This is best unless we are getting ASP/Vedith

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: Lycanfire

[eagerSnake]

I just honestly don't feel good about this

But you all won't lynch Vedith(Maverick)/ASP

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: Asp

[eagerSnake]

Lynch the guy who won't post we don't have time for this

[eagerSnake]

This is so stupid

[eagerSnake]

Fine.

VOTE: Lycanfire

Die, self-voting scum!

[eagerSnake]

OK PR, lead

[eagerSnake]

Wanting to save it? As far as I see he can not be a one-shot so what would he be saving?

Did you target Vedith?

[eagerSnake]

Okay so Aristo is scum. Who is the other scum?

[eagerSnake]

Vedith said ASP was town!bruh

[eagerSnake]

So

Spoiler: What you're trying to say is

Vedith was wrong

[eagerSnake]

IDK but I really want to vote ASP

[eagerSnake]

But tbh if DarkLight is scum he would've known there was a RBer and been able to crumb it ez

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: Nolynch

[eagerSnake]

I was actually thinking the same thing before you said that

[eagerSnake]

Hopefully maf kill me? l0l

[eagerSnake]

I consider 'i can block at night' a crumb for both blocker or jker

[eagerSnake]

yeah

[eagerSnake]

Well if they kill someone then less chance of lynching town right

also if they kill the pr then when know who is lying

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: Unvote

Fine

[eagerSnake]

Yo DarkLight tell me who I should vote tomorrow

[eagerSnake]

Spoiler: Waiting patiently for DarkLightA

[eagerSnake]

No pressure fam

[eagerSnake]

I really didn't like your 658, at all. Reads like casting shade for no reason, jumping on an obvious misstep in phrasing that presumably has nothing to do with alignment. Especially since you don't apparently think it was a genuine slip, then there's no reason to make the post that you did.

Look, exactly one of DLA or ASP is scum. We need to correctly determine which it is. If there is something that should be weighed in those scales, I'm going to point it out even if by itself it's not enough to tip them. If all of us keep quiet about the things we've noticed because individually they're not conclusive, then we are more likely to make a mistake.

If I was 85% sure ASP was scum before that exchange, then afterward I'm more like 75% sure. (I'm pulling these numbers out of my ass but you get the idea.) For DLA not to understand the probabilities ASP gave is also weird because she should have done those same calculations herself at some point and recognized where the numbers were coming from.

Please see my first post of the game

[eagerSnake]

Would DLA!scum counterclaiming ASP!townPR forget that he is counterclaiming ASP!townPR? I don't think so

[eagerSnake]

ASP/Aristophanes?

Accountant was pretty much w/ me on an ASP lynch

[eagerSnake]

Don't out who you are blocking btw

[eagerSnake]

Nvm

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: ASP

[eagerSnake]

Is the game over

[eagerSnake]

just tell me if it's over i can't handle the suspense

[eagerSnake]

Are you really though

[eagerSnake]

great i'm left with 3 scummy ass dudes

[eagerSnake]

That doesn't clear guiltylion because he would be the strongman and strongman kill goes through roleblock

[eagerSnake]

it actualy makes no difference who he blocked since the live scum is a strongman

[eagerSnake]

how not

[eagerSnake]

oh so there is not a strongman

[eagerSnake]

idk y i thought there was 2 scum PRs

[eagerSnake]

So it is Umlaut or Aristo unless DLA blocked someone else

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: A Simple Plan

intent to OMGUS

[eagerSnake]

And the pieces of the puzzle fall into place

[eagerSnake]

I think that ASP is scum and 0x is his buddy who's unsure of whether to support or bus him

I have a policy of not calling scum teams until at least one scum has flipped. But yeah, 0x40 and ASP are my two biggest scumreads.

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: Aristophanes/Accountant

GG everyone

[eagerSnake]

Who is them

[eagerSnake]

inb4 massive misreps

[eagerSnake]

Yeah I already claimed obvtown bro u cc me?

[eagerSnake]

VOTE: lycan

Umlaut, you say reverse Gambler, but wouldn't it be more like a randomized version of the hot-hand fallacy in basketball, based upon the construct of momentum (i.e., player is more likely to make the third shot if he makes the first two because he has the "hot hand").

Alternatively, the gambler's fallacy suggests that because Guilty was guilty last time they played, Guilty is town this time.

ASP talked to Umlaut in his first post

[eagerSnake]

If only you guys would've listen to me D1!

[eagerSnake]

To be honest with you I'm on edges about them and would say 50/50

theres faults on both ends but nothing damning

[eagerSnake]

I could make a way better case for Umlaut!scum but I think of Ockham's Razor and decide to not believe that Umlaut has been planning this since Day 1...

[eagerSnake]

hahahahahahha lol

[eagerSnake]

Oh, hey, we won!

[eagerSnake]

I have a lot of thought on this game, none of which is coherent in any way.

[eagerSnake]

Well D1 I obviously wanted ASP strung up for his entrance. I kept saying 'Accountant is my town read from like the entire game' because they were basically sheeping me, essentially making me a double voter (works for me). In reality, I didn't really TR Accountant as they were just sheeping me, but I didn't want to push for their lynch because I wasn't sure whether they were scum, that type of play comes from both town and scum. The thing that pinged me, though, was when Accountant casted shade both on and off the ASP wagon, essentially shadecasting every player in the game. This also comes from town, though, and can be seen as genuine paranoia. If Accountant was scum, I was sure they couldn't keep up the act forever, so I just had light conversation with them while keeping ASP as the one I wanted strung up for sure.

However, when Vedith entered the game replacing my other weak fos (Maverick) he started off with his wild anti-town play-style which I have a policy of lynching anti-town play, so I wanted them strung up.

After the D1 town flip I was just going to keep with ASP+Vedith scum, but with Vedith vig-killed (lucky me) and flipping town, I had to adjust my reads. I then put ASP as town since Vedith claimed some crazy foolproof meta-read on him. This made me switch to Umlaut, Aristophanes, and GuiltyLion being 2/3 scum. Luckily, ASP tried to counter-claim PR and the PR had a decent crumb left so it made that decision easy. If ASP had not counter-claimed PR they may have won the game that day with an Umlaut (more likely) or GuiltyLion mislynch.

After ASP flipped scum and PR died, revealing previously that he was going to block GuiltyLion, it was between Aristophanes and Umlaut. Aristophanes was an easier choice because the plays by Accountant early D1 (sheeping/buddying me, distancing from ASP, shadecast at everyone). Also the contradiction where Accountant had said X and Y are scum, but later when I asked them if they thought X and Y were scum together, they changed and said 'I have a policy of not calling scumteams.' Umlauts response to Aristophanes case, and his errors regarding post numbers, seemed townie to me. I would think that scum would nitpick their case before posting and would notice the errors. Of course that isn't foolproof and scum can do that as well so it wasn't really justifying, it just added to the town feel. For Umlaut to be scum it would have taken a very long and difficult explanation of how he had planned every move since the beginning of D1 and taken every townie thing he did and turn it into a scum thing he did to look like town.

Decided to go with Ockham's Razor, the simplest explanation, and was correct.