Micro 839: Two-in-One (its over)
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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VOTE: C14 Maki Harukawa
VOTE: B7 Maki Harukawa
please join my wagons-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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irrelephant you coward please join the maki wagon-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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I think day 1 we should just lynch the scummiest person in both games-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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dead scum being able to continue offering input on the game where they died isn't good for town-
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I don't think an actual VT/VT would claim this earlyIn post 27, Pine wrote:BEHOLD IT IS I, PINE, IN MY FIRST GAME IN LIKE SIX MONTHS
So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.
VOTE: C14 Pine
VOTE: B7 Pine-
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(to clarify I think Pine is scum in one game and VT in one)-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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for day 1 we should essentially treat this as one game. once we have things like investigation results tomorrow that changes things, and obviously if someone makes an uncountered claim in one game, we should leave that person alone, but lynching two different people seems way too easy for scum in both games to manipulate. if we settle on one person, the odds that we get a hit in at least one game go up by an enormous amount. like, if a given player is scum in one game and town in the other, if it's looking like they'll get lynched in exactly one game, they'll logically want to do everything in their power to make sure it's the town game where they die. by lynching one person in both games you deny them that opportunity. yeah, there's a pretty low chance of one person being scum in both games, so statistically it's likely to be a mislynch in one, but that same math applies to lynching anyone (no matter who dies, the odds are not in our favor). sometimes you get a mislynch. you just gotta not repeat that mistake and then you win.-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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do you disagree with my analysis that a person who is scum in one game and town in the other would prefer to be lynched in the town game given the choice between the two? and if so, do you disagree that strategically taking away the ability for scum to do that is a good plan?In post 70, Pine wrote:
Nope, not the only reasonIn post 49, Persivul wrote:
The only town motivation to declare that would be to play D1 wifom bullshit like A50 does.In post 27, Pine wrote: So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.
I like lynching A50 early.
VOTE: 1 Pine
VOTE: 2 Pine
Keeping it light so far. *thumbsup*In post 53, Taly wrote:
So why comment on people reading you and not your thoughts on them?In post 42, Pine wrote:Yeah, but...Townpings from me ought to be viewed with suspicion. Just sayin'.
That said, this feels scummy, especially bolded. Sounds like bad faith gamesolving.In post 56, xyzzy wrote:for day 1 we should essentially treat this as one game. once we have things like investigation results tomorrow that changes things, and obviously if someone makes an uncountered claim in one game, we should leave that person alone, but lynching two different people seems way too easy for scum in both games to manipulate. if we settle on one person, the odds that we get a hit in at least one game go up by an enormous amount. like, if a given player is scum in one game and town in the other, if it's looking like they'll get lynched in exactly one game, they'll logically want to do everything in their power to make sure it's the town game where they die. by lynching one person in both games you deny them that opportunity. yeah, there's a pretty low chance of one person being scum in both games, so statistically it's likely to be a mislynch in one, but that same math applies to lynching anyone (no matter who dies, the odds are not in our favor). sometimes you get a mislynch. you just gotta not repeat that mistake and then you win.
if you think I'm arguing in bad faith, then that's fair, but you haven't actually clarified your thoughts on my plan.-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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I ended up being out until nearly 3 am doing karaoke with friends and didn't get a good chance to catch up on the last day or so of posts, but for now I just wanna say that I think the "play both games completely separately" plan seems like a really bad idea just from a time management perspective. this compartmentalization won't be remotely beneficial.
anyway it's looking like I'm gonna be at Columbus International Airport for about 8 hours tomorrow night so I will definitely have time to do a more thorough catch-up then!-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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okay y'all I'm at the airport so I'm gonna make some posts. I'm waiting for the fucking airport Bob Evans to open because that's apparently the best option at John Glenn International Airport at 5 am on Christmas Eve, so depending on how long it takes me to eat food I might not get all the way through. I've been awake since 11 am yesterday so it is not an exaggeration to say that I'm dying and I will do my best to read this thread real good. my life is incredibly challenging and you should have sympathy for me. I just remembered I'm going to have to wrap a fuckton of gifts when I get to Houston. I'm halfway tempted to just leave that shit unwrapped and fall asleep in the pool
anyway
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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"didn't you waste two minutes by typing all of that that you could've spent reading posts?" you ask
and to that I answer, your question that I'm imagining you just asked just wasted another minute. you fucked up my friend-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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the point about claims is a good one but I don't really like the first point -- if playing each game separately were better town EV I'd want to do that, but it's not, so I don't. whether it's in the spirit of the game is of absolutely zero relevanceIn post 78, Maki Harukawa wrote:I kinda don't like your plan for the simple fact it feels like it takes the whole '2 in 1' part of the game out of it. Along with the fact that I can easily see claims etc bringing complications to your whole idea. So I dislike it
do you genuinely believe that someone with both a mafia role and a townie role would have absolutely no incentive to prioritize one over the other w/r/t their own death? like I'm only acting in bad faith if my point is wrong. so is it?In post 82, Pine wrote:xyzzy I think your plan is reductive and makes unreasonable assumptions about how others would react to a situation I suspect you may have found yourself in. QED, made in bad faith
That is not what happened there. The quoted accusation is disingenuousIn post 74, Elsa Jay wrote:
Ahh, the old "I know you are but what am I?" Trick. Amazing skillset to have.In post 73, Persivul wrote:
How doIn post 71, Elsa Jay wrote:Pine, how do you feel about xyzzy and persival putting you at L-2 in both games at once for you claiming early?youfeel about it?
this last point bout Maki seems like an enormous reach to meIn post 84, Irrelephant11 wrote:
I think I agree that double-VT wouldn’t claim like thisIn post 30, xyzzy wrote:
I don't think an actual VT/VT would claim this earlyIn post 27, Pine wrote:BEHOLD IT IS I, PINE, IN MY FIRST GAME IN LIKE SIX MONTHS
So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.
VOTE: C14 Pine
VOTE: B7 Pine
But I’m not sure I’m sold on the idea that makes him VT+Scum
I can’t decide if I think this misunderstanding (Elsa thinking xyzzy was RVS voting - I think it was obvious he wasn’t RVS voting) is non-partner-y. I think I think so?In post 39, Taly wrote:Irrelephant, becausexyzzyhasn't voted or mentioned me yet,Irrelephantmentioned me as a hypothetical scum for his point. You've only responded to one of them thus far, even though they both seem alright with double-voting.
I don't thinkxyzzy'svote in 30 was RVS?
This kinda sounds like someone who’s trying to crumb that they’re scum who’s scumreading their partnerIn post 44, Maki Harukawa wrote:Ngl I was really confused (and still am) on how the whole scum pt thing works on how they can talk to each other thing goes.
Like are the 2 scum for 1 game in a pt and the other 2 in one but they can also use it as a neighborhood to talk about the other game?
If so that's wacky. What if you sr your partner but you can't say anything cause you'd be outting yourself in the other game.
My head hurts just thinking about it
sounds like bullshit to me but okayIn post 87, Elsa Jay wrote:19 hours to a bored Elsa is an eternity, and you were gone for 19 hours.
thanks for the update re:your bowel movements. please keep us postedIn post 89, Taly wrote:im alive guys, i had to poo for 22 hours straight
going to start organizing posts and thoughts now
the post I quoted reads as scummy to me. I think there's at least one game where Elsa is scum and you are town.In post 90, Irrelephant11 wrote:I’m only realizing now that there’s good odds 2/3 of you are scum
Xyzzy, Pine, how do you each read Elsa?
hey I noticed this post again in Taly's post and the wording of this is weird given that only one of us put Pine at L-2In post 71, Elsa Jay wrote:Pine, how do you feel about xyzzy and persival putting you at L-2 in both games at once for you claiming early?
Who is more scummy? For consistancy, we're focused on Bird right now, not Carbon.
it's simply unrealistic to assume that both games will have a scum lynch D1. my plan is based on improving our odds for the game as a whole. there's some good advice that comes fromIn post 92, Taly wrote:@Irrelephant's 84
Solving for 2 games simultaneously makes a distinction between both difficult. I still agree with the plan given the mod's response.
Entertaining pre-flip associatives D1 will not help here. (RegardingElsa)
Can you elaborate onMakibeing VT+Scum?
The bolded assumes that a mislynch would be made, and therefore, not a plan that is concerned with scumhunting.In post 77, xyzzy wrote:do you disagree with my analysis that a person who is scum in one game and town in the other would prefer to be lynched in the town game given the choice between the two?and if so, do you disagree that strategically taking away the ability for scum to do that is a good plan?
if you think I'm arguing in bad faith, then that's fair, but you haven't actually clarified your thoughts on my plan.
Do you have other reads aside fromPine? And can you elaborate on howPineis likely scum in at least one game given his opening post?
I'd likePersivulto answer the above as well, and for his read onMakiand her posts so far.
(AboutPine) I don't see scum posting something that could be interpreted in many different ways as a VT/VT claim. It reads as gauging for reactions and thinking below the surface level.Magic: the Gatheringthat basically says that only your very last point of life actually matters in terms of winning or losing, so if spending your life as a resource makes you reduce your opponent to 0 before they reduce you to 0, that's the correct line of play. same thing in Mafia -- only the last town player who dies actually matters.-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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okay it's 4:58, time for me to get whatever the hell food they have at an airport Bob Evans-
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pro-tip: when the airport Bob Evans says they serve toast what they really mean is they warmed up some bread in the microwave. would not recommend
my flight leaves at 6:30 but I have no idea when boarding is-
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I saw this had 7 pages and I was like "oh wow that's a lot of pages" but page 7? that's all me babey-
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not knowing that this precise plan has been proposed ain't a good lookIn post 100, Persivul wrote:Idea: we play this as 2 separate games. All posts for now are on one game. We set our own deadline for that game. Then we move on to the other with the mod's deadline.
Thoughts?
yeah agreed. it seems like Taly has a bias toward people he perceives as inactive as being scum which is a bad take but that doesn't necessarily make him scumIn post 108, Pine wrote:
Agreed. Not necessarily scummy, though, Taly does this.In post 106, Persivul wrote:
It's early. That seems pretty normal to me. No offense, but I find your in-depth posts to be weird this early.In post 50, Taly wrote:Yeah, I like the reasoning he gave, but then the same type of thing I felt odd about Irrelephant doing, I saw in Elsa's post. (filtered banter, quick back and forth with an equally quick end)
I personally think that if we focus on one game first it should be bird (not that I like that idea, mind you). it's got a lot more mechanical complexity to worry about on day 1 imoIn post 111, Persivul wrote:
Why Bird? Mod repeatedly listed Carbon first. Seems like that one would naturally be the first focused on.In post 57, Elsa Jay wrote:For the next 3-5. Irl days, I'm going to mainly focus on voting in Bird 7p.
theoretically in bird we might have 2 if the doc is really, really good (though we shouldn't be betting on that)In post 112, Persivul wrote:
When the setup only provides for one mislynch, we can't be basing lynches on statistics.In post 58, Irrelephant11 wrote:I don’t feel as strongly as FA about what “ideal play” is here but I think Pine makes good points about how separating the lynches will make it harder to hit scum-
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technically this feels like a thing Pine would acknowledge as true in any alignment but I'm still kind of townreading itIn post 125, Pine wrote:Ugh, this is pissing me off, I can't let it go there.
Some of the best scumhunting strategies revolve around putting people into uncomfortable, unfamiliar situations, and seeing how they react in an organic way. Dogmatically sticking to old models (like LaL) actually benefits scum because it allows them to fall back onestablished protocol. Just like polite platitudes allow a socially uncomfortable person to handle a new situation, black-and-white scumhunting strategies allow scum to anticipate and conform to your expectations.
Persivul, your dogged determination and blind insistence on absolutist truths strikes me as Town. Don't blow it by sabotaging the cause.
cop and seer are basically identical roles which means the possible effect of a power role claim on the game is pretty much the same for both. the way the town will react to a cop claim is different from how they'll react to a doc claim. this difference makes analyzing it a bit more complex.In post 130, Taly wrote:
Your push onPersivul wrote:
I said that, after you had one conversation with another person, I was "meh," i.e. null, on you. Your repeated requests for an explanation of my read feels forced - like you're scum paranoid that you don't look townie enough, and you want to know why so you can correct it.In post 86, Irrelephant11 wrote:Persivul please explain your read on me
C14: Unvote
B7: Unvote
B7: FOS IrrelephantIrrelephantthus far seems focused around his read on you... Also, I don't know what meeting you've had withIrrelepehantbefore, but 116 is dismissive of him.
Can you post-link or point out specific things about what he's said to emphasize your point?
@Persivul's 114
I actually want to know whyMakiandElsawould rather do B7 first because I'm not seeing the reason that makes B7"slightly more complicated"
how are scum more likely to react to that? I don't follow your reasoning here.In post 139, Maki Harukawa wrote:In post 120, Persivul wrote:
Considering my next post that's right after that is talking non mech and you don't talk about that boy what cherry pick posting.In post 97, Maki Harukawa wrote:Can we try to get out of all the mech talk now.
Says the person who's done nothing but mech talk, and precious little of that.
Sure.In post 126, Elsa Jay wrote:I thought I was doing a decent job in causing uncessacary conflict to draw out scum by being ignorant and seeing who would gun for me.
Can I have some townread now?
Now that we're past the whole Pine VT/VT reaction test BS that was very obv a test I'm gonna go and check who fell for that because it's something that on the surface. Yes it looks objectively scummy and scum are most likely to jump on that then not. Town will give it another glance
VOTE: b7 Elsa Jay
VOTE: c14 Elsa Jay-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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Elsa Jay, is 158 about me? you use he/him pronouns to the person you're referring to but you seem to be referring to my vote? anyway I am voting you because, as I said, I think there's definitely at least one game where you're scum. also, I never agreed to doing one game first.-
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nah actually go fuck yourselfIn post 192, Elsa Jay wrote:She'll be fine as long as i dont conform to one thing. He's probably dealt with worse.-
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it's more to do with you seeming to value high activity -- the way you've express frustration when you've come back to the thread and there's not been a ton of new content a couple of times comes off as very "no one else is trying as hard as me, who is town." it's possible I'm misinterpreting this and you don't actually base any reads off of that, but that's the sense I've gotten from you.In post 196, Taly wrote:@xyzzy
Where did you get the idea that I scumread low activity players?
Has your opinion on how to handle this game changed withElsa'srecent explanations?
I think the two philosophies on how to play this game fundamentally come down to optimism vs pragmatism; yeah, we could try to find a scummy lynch in both games, and maybe we'd hit two scum, but there are so many ways that plan can go south. a plan where there's a high chance of a mislynch is obviously one that comes with a possibility of losing, but if your plan to win is to just never mislynch and you haven't figured out what you're gonna do when that does almost inevitably happen, you're probably gonna do even worse.-
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this first part is just................................ factually incorrect. like go read my ISO and tell me that I've done nothing but setup theorizeIn post 219, Taly wrote:@xyzzy, you've done nothing but game theory this entire dayphase while ignoring ANY attempt at town agreeing on a game approach, what are you basing your reads off of?
Especially the double-vote onElsadespite them actually explaining their thought process in the past page or so?
also you're implying that my vote on Elsa Jay is based on me disagreeing with his lynch plan, which is not remotely true???
all of these questions are pulled completely out of your ass and in no way accurately reflect anything I've done-
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UNVOTE: B7 Elsa
I'm not sure where to move my vote to for this game. my gut says Pine, but I need to iso Irrelephant first since that's the only other option with real traction. that probably won't happen untilnext year-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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actually you know what I didn't bother reading 248 before hitting submit (I could've done a p-edit but I'm fuckin lazy) and
VOTE: B7 Irrelephant
that post is garbage! it's bad
I believe this is L-1-
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this was probably unclear but what I meant was if someone claims in a game I'm fine with having two separate lynches instead of the same person in both gamesIn post 56, xyzzy wrote:for day 1 we should essentially treat this as one game. once we have things like investigation results tomorrow that changes things, and obviously if someone makes an uncountered claim in one game, we should leave that person alone, but lynching two different people seems way too easy for scum in both games to manipulate.
also you're completely mischaracterizing my vote on Irrelephant in B7???? post 248 was made while I was in the middle of writing post 249 and I didn't bother reading the post and doing a p-edit before submitting 249. after submitting 249 I read 248 and I decided to vote Irrelephant in 250. like to say I didn't even read his post is to just completely misinterpret me in a really ridiculous way-
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we have 20 minutes left, someone just hammer, there's not enough time for a conversation here-
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<3In post 366, Irrelephant11 wrote:
*their strong focus. Sorry xyzzy!In post 346, Irrelephant11 wrote: I would not be super surprised if xyzzy was doublescum, given his strong focus on mechanics and presence on Elsa’s wagon-
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okay now that that's over Taly claimed C14 cop in our B7 PT so there is 100% scum in {irrelephant, Taly} and I got the vibe from that PT that he was telling the truth-
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it's possible he really is cop and was hoping to avoid having to claim buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut the possibility that he's scum is way too high for me to not reveal that-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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C14 requires that the choice be made randomly. if it was made non-randomly, this game would by definition be not C14.
hey here's an idea for a stupid C14 variant: the two non-town players share an alignment and are treated as a normal unified faction no matter what, but they each roll either werewolf or mafia independently, so you have a 50% chance of a team of one wolf and one goon, a 25% chance of two wolves, and a 25% chance of two goons.-
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oh btw to answer a question someone asked Taly's claim was n0-
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oh btw this post was in reference to my knowledge of Taly's claim. I couldn't clarify why I knew there was a counter claim until after B7 ended, but I knew it existed.In post 415, xyzzy wrote:imo irrelephant is lying-
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I verified with EP that everything is fine. she won't explicitly confirm that B7 is over until it's actually over, but the logic for why the game was basically completely over was correct.-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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just to clarify you're saying I'm lying about your claim in our PT? because if so I'm assuming you're 100% for sure scum in C14, and everyone else can be 100% that at least one of us is scum in C14.In post 456, Taly wrote:Also, I haven't claimed shit so if anyone says I have at all then they're lying through their teeth.
btw, fwiw Taly kept getting small details of B7 wrong in our PT (I had to remind him multiple times that the cop in B7 is macho among other things), but he seemed to have a pretty strong understanding of C14. I don't think that's for sure evidence of anything until Taly responds to this, but it's certainly noteworthy.-
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Taly, if you're town, you really just need to claim immediately-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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hey Taly, yes or no question: was I lying when I said that you claimed cop in our PT? you haven't really explicitly said that I'm lying, and I want to be 100% sure that that's what you're claiming.
one way or another, a bunch of claims were going to come out today. I thought it was the right choice to come right out and confirm what you told me to do, because if you honestly think it's *not* a good idea to counterclaim as cop in that situation, you're just.......... utterly fucking daft-
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just answer the fucking question talyIn post 506, xyzzy wrote:hey Taly, yes or no question: was I lying when I said that you claimed cop in our PT? you haven't really explicitly said that I'm lying, and I want to be 100% sure that that's what you're claiming.
one way or another, a bunch of claims were going to come out today. I thought it was the right choice to come right out and confirm what you told me to do, because if you honestly think it's *not* a good idea to counterclaim as cop in that situation, you're just.......... utterly fucking daft-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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In post 521, xyzzy wrote:
just answer the fucking question talyIn post 506, xyzzy wrote:hey Taly, yes or no question: was I lying when I said that you claimed cop in our PT? you haven't really explicitly said that I'm lying, and I want to be 100% sure that that's what you're claiming.
one way or another, a bunch of claims were going to come out today. I thought it was the right choice to come right out and confirm what you told me to do, because if you honestly think it's *not* a good idea to counterclaim as cop in that situation, you're just.......... utterly fucking daft-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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great work losing the game for the town, Taly. really terrific job you did there-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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*that one evil guy from the george lucas movie voice* do itIn post 541, Errantparabola wrote:1) mafia, you have 24 hours to consent to PT release-
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xyzzy they/themcomical third optionthey/them
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I'm gonna make a post about in the open setups subforum btw because I think this idea has legsIn post 440, xyzzy wrote:hey here's an idea for a stupid C14 variant: the two non-town players share an alignment and are treated as a normal unified faction no matter what, but they each roll either werewolf or mafia independently, so you have a 50% chance of a team of one wolf and one goon, a 25% chance of two wolves, and a 25% chance of two goons.
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