Micro 839: Two-in-One (its over)

[xyzzy]

VOTE: C14 Maki Harukawa
VOTE: B7 Maki Harukawa

please join my wagons

[xyzzy]

irrelephant you coward please join the maki wagon

[xyzzy]

I think day 1 we should just lynch the scummiest person in both games

[xyzzy]

dead scum being able to continue offering input on the game where they died isn't good for town

[xyzzy]

BEHOLD IT IS I, PINE, IN MY FIRST GAME IN LIKE SIX MONTHS

So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.

I don't think an actual VT/VT would claim this early

VOTE: C14 Pine
VOTE: B7 Pine

[xyzzy]

(to clarify I think Pine is scum in one game and VT in one)

[xyzzy]

for day 1 we should essentially treat this as one game. once we have things like investigation results tomorrow that changes things, and obviously if someone makes an uncountered claim in one game, we should leave that person alone, but lynching two different people seems way too easy for scum in both games to manipulate. if we settle on one person, the odds that we get a hit in at least one game go up by an enormous amount. like, if a given player is scum in one game and town in the other, if it's looking like they'll get lynched in exactly one game, they'll logically want to do everything in their power to make sure it's the town game where they die. by lynching one person in both games you deny them that opportunity. yeah, there's a pretty low chance of one person being scum in both games, so statistically it's likely to be a mislynch in one, but that same math applies to lynching anyone (no matter who dies, the odds are not in our favor). sometimes you get a mislynch. you just gotta not repeat that mistake and then you win.

[xyzzy]

So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.

The only town motivation to declare that would be to play D1 wifom bullshit like A50 does.

I like lynching A50 early.

VOTE: 1 Pine
VOTE: 2 Pine

Nope, not the only reason

Yeah, but...Townpings from me ought to be viewed with suspicion. Just sayin'.

So why comment on people reading you and not your thoughts on them?

Keeping it light so far. *thumbsup*

for day 1 we should essentially treat this as one game. once we have things like investigation results tomorrow that changes things

, and obviously if someone makes an uncountered claim in one game, we should leave that person alone, but lynching two different people seems way too easy for scum in both games to manipulate. if we settle on one person, the odds that we get a hit in at least one game go up by an enormous amount. like, if a given player is scum in one game and town in the other, if it's looking like they'll get lynched in exactly one game, they'll logically want to do everything in their power to make sure it's the town game where they die. by lynching one person in both games you deny them that opportunity. yeah, there's a pretty low chance of one person being scum in both games, so statistically it's likely to be a mislynch in one, but that same math applies to lynching anyone (no matter who dies, the odds are not in our favor). sometimes you get a mislynch. you just gotta not repeat that mistake and then you win.

That said, this feels scummy, especially bolded. Sounds like bad faith gamesolving.

do you disagree with my analysis that a person who is scum in one game and town in the other would prefer to be lynched in the town game given the choice between the two? and if so, do you disagree that strategically taking away the ability for scum to do that is a good plan?

if you think I'm arguing in bad faith, then that's fair, but you haven't actually clarified your thoughts on my plan.

[xyzzy]

I ended up being out until nearly 3 am doing karaoke with friends and didn't get a good chance to catch up on the last day or so of posts, but for now I just wanna say that I think the "play both games completely separately" plan seems like a really bad idea just from a time management perspective. this compartmentalization won't be remotely beneficial.

anyway it's looking like I'm gonna be at Columbus International Airport for about 8 hours tomorrow night so I will definitely have time to do a more thorough catch-up then!

[xyzzy]

okay y'all I'm at the airport so I'm gonna make some posts. I'm waiting for the fucking airport Bob Evans to open because that's apparently the best option at John Glenn International Airport at 5 am on Christmas Eve, so depending on how long it takes me to eat food I might not get all the way through. I've been awake since 11 am yesterday so it is not an exaggeration to say that I'm dying and I will do my best to read this thread real good. my life is incredibly challenging and you should have sympathy for me. I just remembered I'm going to have to wrap a fuckton of gifts when I get to Houston. I'm halfway tempted to just leave that shit unwrapped and fall asleep in the pool

anyway

posts

[xyzzy]

"didn't you waste two minutes by typing all of that that you could've spent reading posts?" you ask

and to that I answer, your question that I'm imagining you just asked just wasted another minute. you fucked up my friend

[xyzzy]

oh wow pagetop

[xyzzy]

I kinda don't like your plan for the simple fact it feels like it takes the whole '2 in 1' part of the game out of it. Along with the fact that I can easily see claims etc bringing complications to your whole idea. So I dislike it

the point about claims is a good one but I don't really like the first point -- if playing each game separately were better town EV I'd want to do that, but it's not, so I don't. whether it's in the spirit of the game is of absolutely zero relevance

xyzzy I think your plan is reductive and makes unreasonable assumptions about how others would react to a situation I suspect you may have found yourself in. QED, made in bad faith

Pine, how do you feel about xyzzy and persival putting you at L-2 in both games at once for you claiming early?

How do

you

feel about it?

Ahh, the old "I know you are but what am I?" Trick. Amazing skillset to have.

That is not what happened there. The quoted accusation is disingenuous

do you genuinely believe that someone with both a mafia role and a townie role would have absolutely no incentive to prioritize one over the other w/r/t their own death? like I'm only acting in bad faith if my point is wrong. so is it?

BEHOLD IT IS I, PINE, IN MY FIRST GAME IN LIKE SIX MONTHS

So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.

I don't think an actual VT/VT would claim this early

VOTE: C14 Pine
VOTE: B7 Pine

I think I agree that double-VT wouldn’t claim like this
But I’m not sure I’m sold on the idea that makes him VT+Scum

Irrelephant

, because

xyzzy

hasn't voted or mentioned me yet,

Irrelephant

mentioned me as a hypothetical scum for his point. You've only responded to one of them thus far, even though they both seem alright with double-voting.

I don't think

xyzzy's

vote in 30 was RVS?

I can’t decide if I think this misunderstanding (Elsa thinking xyzzy was RVS voting - I think it was obvious he wasn’t RVS voting) is non-partner-y. I think I think so?

Ngl I was really confused (and still am) on how the whole scum pt thing works on how they can talk to each other thing goes.
Like are the 2 scum for 1 game in a pt and the other 2 in one but they can also use it as a neighborhood to talk about the other game?
If so that's wacky. What if you sr your partner but you can't say anything cause you'd be outting yourself in the other game.
My head hurts just thinking about it

This kinda sounds like someone who’s trying to crumb that they’re scum who’s scumreading their partner

this last point bout Maki seems like an enormous reach to me

19 hours to a bored Elsa is an eternity, and you were gone for 19 hours.

sounds like bullshit to me but okay

im alive guys, i had to poo for 22 hours straight

going to start organizing posts and thoughts now

thanks for the update re:your bowel movements. please keep us posted

I’m only realizing now that there’s good odds 2/3 of you are scum


Xyzzy, Pine, how do you each read Elsa?

the post I quoted reads as scummy to me. I think there's at least one game where Elsa is scum and you are town.

Pine, how do you feel about xyzzy and persival putting you at L-2 in both games at once for you claiming early?

Who is more scummy? For consistancy, we're focused on Bird right now, not Carbon.

hey I noticed this post again in Taly's post and the wording of this is weird given that only one of us put Pine at L-2

@Irrelephant's 84

Solving for 2 games simultaneously makes a distinction between both difficult. I still agree with the plan given the mod's response.

Entertaining pre-flip associatives D1 will not help here. (Regarding

Elsa

)

Can you elaborate on

Maki

being VT+Scum?

do you disagree with my analysis that a person who is scum in one game and town in the other would prefer to be lynched in the town game given the choice between the two?

and if so, do you disagree that strategically taking away the ability for scum to do that is a good plan?

if you think I'm arguing in bad faith, then that's fair, but you haven't actually clarified your thoughts on my plan.

The bolded assumes that a mislynch would be made, and therefore, not a plan that is concerned with scumhunting.

Do you have other reads aside from

Pine

? And can you elaborate on how

Pine

is likely scum in at least one game given his opening post?

I'd like

Persivul

to answer the above as well, and for his read on

Maki

and her posts so far.

(About

Pine

) I don't see scum posting something that could be interpreted in many different ways as a VT/VT claim. It reads as gauging for reactions and thinking below the surface level.

it's simply unrealistic to assume that both games will have a scum lynch D1. my plan is based on improving our odds for the game as a whole. there's some good advice that comes from

Magic: the Gathering

that basically says that only your very last point of life actually matters in terms of winning or losing, so if spending your life as a resource makes you reduce your opponent to 0 before they reduce you to 0, that's the correct line of play. same thing in Mafia -- only the last town player who dies actually matters.

[xyzzy]

okay it's 4:58, time for me to get whatever the hell food they have at an airport Bob Evans

[xyzzy]

pro-tip: when the airport Bob Evans says they serve toast what they really mean is they warmed up some bread in the microwave. would not recommend

my flight leaves at 6:30 but I have no idea when boarding is

[xyzzy]

I saw this had 7 pages and I was like "oh wow that's a lot of pages" but page 7? that's all me babey

[xyzzy]

Idea: we play this as 2 separate games. All posts for now are on one game. We set our own deadline for that game. Then we move on to the other with the mod's deadline.

Thoughts?

not knowing that this precise plan has been proposed ain't a good look

Yeah, I like the reasoning he gave, but then the same type of thing I felt odd about Irrelephant doing, I saw in Elsa's post. (filtered banter, quick back and forth with an equally quick end)

It's early. That seems pretty normal to me. No offense, but I find your in-depth posts to be weird this early.

Agreed. Not necessarily scummy, though, Taly does this.

yeah agreed. it seems like Taly has a bias toward people he perceives as inactive as being scum which is a bad take but that doesn't necessarily make him scum

For the next 3-5. Irl days, I'm going to mainly focus on voting in Bird 7p.

Why Bird? Mod repeatedly listed Carbon first. Seems like that one would naturally be the first focused on.

I personally think that if we focus on one game first it should be bird (not that I like that idea, mind you). it's got a lot more mechanical complexity to worry about on day 1 imo

I don’t feel as strongly as FA about what “ideal play” is here but I think Pine makes good points about how separating the lynches will make it harder to hit scum

When the setup only provides for one mislynch, we can't be basing lynches on statistics.

theoretically in bird we might have 2 if the doc is really, really good (though we shouldn't be betting on that)

[xyzzy]

Ugh, this is pissing me off, I can't let it go there.

Some of the best scumhunting strategies revolve around putting people into uncomfortable, unfamiliar situations, and seeing how they react in an organic way. Dogmatically sticking to old models (like LaL) actually benefits scum because it allows them to fall back on

established protocol

. Just like polite platitudes allow a socially uncomfortable person to handle a new situation, black-and-white scumhunting strategies allow scum to anticipate and conform to your expectations.

Persivul, your dogged determination and blind insistence on absolutist truths strikes me as Town. Don't blow it by sabotaging the cause.

technically this feels like a thing Pine would acknowledge as true in any alignment but I'm still kind of townreading it

Persivul please explain your read on me

I said that, after you had one conversation with another person, I was "meh," i.e. null, on you. Your repeated requests for an explanation of my read feels forced - like you're scum paranoid that you don't look townie enough, and you want to know why so you can correct it.

C14: Unvote

B7: Unvote

B7: FOS Irrelephant

Your push on

Irrelephant

thus far seems focused around his read on you... Also, I don't know what meeting you've had with

Irrelepehant

before, but 116 is dismissive of him.

Can you post-link or point out specific things about what he's said to emphasize your point?

@Persivul's 114

I actually want to know why

Maki

and

Elsa

would rather do B7 first because I'm not seeing the reason that makes B7

"slightly more complicated"

cop and seer are basically identical roles which means the possible effect of a power role claim on the game is pretty much the same for both. the way the town will react to a cop claim is different from how they'll react to a doc claim. this difference makes analyzing it a bit more complex.

Can we try to get out of all the mech talk now.

Considering my next post that's right after that is talking non mech and you don't talk about that boy what cherry pick posting.
Says the person who's done nothing but mech talk, and precious little of that.

I thought I was doing a decent job in causing uncessacary conflict to draw out scum by being ignorant and seeing who would gun for me.

Can I have some townread now?

Sure.
Now that we're past the whole Pine VT/VT reaction test BS that was very obv a test I'm gonna go and check who fell for that because it's something that on the surface. Yes it looks objectively scummy and scum are most likely to jump on that then not. Town will give it another glance

how are scum more likely to react to that? I don't follow your reasoning here.

VOTE: b7 Elsa Jay
VOTE: c14 Elsa Jay

[xyzzy]

Elsa Jay, is 158 about me? you use he/him pronouns to the person you're referring to but you seem to be referring to my vote? anyway I am voting you because, as I said, I think there's definitely at least one game where you're scum. also, I never agreed to doing one game first.

[xyzzy]

She'll be fine as long as i dont conform to one thing. He's probably dealt with worse.

nah actually go fuck yourself

[xyzzy]

@xyzzy

Where did you get the idea that I scumread low activity players?

Has your opinion on how to handle this game changed with

Elsa's

recent explanations?

it's more to do with you seeming to value high activity -- the way you've express frustration when you've come back to the thread and there's not been a ton of new content a couple of times comes off as very "no one else is trying as hard as me, who is town." it's possible I'm misinterpreting this and you don't actually base any reads off of that, but that's the sense I've gotten from you.

I think the two philosophies on how to play this game fundamentally come down to optimism vs pragmatism; yeah, we could try to find a scummy lynch in both games, and maybe we'd hit two scum, but there are so many ways that plan can go south. a plan where there's a high chance of a mislynch is obviously one that comes with a possibility of losing, but if your plan to win is to just never mislynch and you haven't figured out what you're gonna do when that does almost inevitably happen, you're probably gonna do even worse.

[xyzzy]

@xyzzy

, you've done nothing but game theory this entire dayphase while ignoring ANY attempt at town agreeing on a game approach, what are you basing your reads off of?

Especially the double-vote on

Elsa

despite them actually explaining their thought process in the past page or so?

this first part is just................................ factually incorrect. like go read my ISO and tell me that I've done nothing but setup theorize

also you're implying that my vote on Elsa Jay is based on me disagreeing with his lynch plan, which is not remotely true???

all of these questions are pulled completely out of your ass and in no way accurately reflect anything I've done

[xyzzy]

UNVOTE: B7 Elsa

I'm not sure where to move my vote to for this game. my gut says Pine, but I need to iso Irrelephant first since that's the only other option with real traction. that probably won't happen until

next year

[xyzzy]

actually you know what I didn't bother reading 248 before hitting submit (I could've done a p-edit but I'm fuckin lazy) and

VOTE: B7 Irrelephant

that post is garbage! it's bad

I believe this is L-1

[xyzzy]

for day 1 we should essentially treat this as one game. once we have things like investigation results tomorrow that changes things, and obviously if someone makes an uncountered claim in one game, we should leave that person alone, but lynching two different people seems way too easy for scum in both games to manipulate.

this was probably unclear but what I meant was if someone claims in a game I'm fine with having two separate lynches instead of the same person in both games

also you're completely mischaracterizing my vote on Irrelephant in B7???? post 248 was made while I was in the middle of writing post 249 and I didn't bother reading the post and doing a p-edit before submitting 249. after submitting 249 I read 248 and I decided to vote Irrelephant in 250. like to say I didn't even read his post is to just completely misinterpret me in a really ridiculous way

[xyzzy]

aw dunk

[xyzzy]

we have 20 minutes left, someone just hammer, there's not enough time for a conversation here

[xyzzy]

I would not be super surprised if xyzzy was doublescum, given his strong focus on mechanics and presence on Elsa’s wagon

*their strong focus. Sorry xyzzy!

<3

[xyzzy]

imo irrelephant is lying

[xyzzy]

okay now that that's over Taly claimed C14 cop in our B7 PT so there is 100% scum in {irrelephant, Taly} and I got the vibe from that PT that he was telling the truth

[xyzzy]

it's possible he really is cop and was hoping to avoid having to claim buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut the possibility that he's scum is way too high for me to not reveal that

[xyzzy]

C14 requires that the choice be made randomly. if it was made non-randomly, this game would by definition be not C14.

hey here's an idea for a stupid C14 variant: the two non-town players share an alignment and are treated as a normal unified faction no matter what, but they each roll either werewolf or mafia independently, so you have a 50% chance of a team of one wolf and one goon, a 25% chance of two wolves, and a 25% chance of two goons.

[xyzzy]

oh btw to answer a question someone asked Taly's claim was n0

[xyzzy]

imo irrelephant is lying

oh btw this post was in reference to my knowledge of Taly's claim. I couldn't clarify why I knew there was a counter claim until after B7 ended, but I knew it existed.

[xyzzy]

I verified with EP that everything is fine. she won't explicitly confirm that B7 is over until it's actually over, but the logic for why the game was basically completely over was correct.

[xyzzy]

Also, I haven't claimed shit so if anyone says I have at all then they're lying through their teeth.

just to clarify you're saying I'm lying about your claim in our PT? because if so I'm assuming you're 100% for sure scum in C14, and everyone else can be 100% that at least one of us is scum in C14.

btw, fwiw Taly kept getting small details of B7 wrong in our PT (I had to remind him multiple times that the cop in B7 is macho among other things), but he seemed to have a pretty strong understanding of C14. I don't think that's for sure evidence of anything until Taly responds to this, but it's certainly noteworthy.

[xyzzy]

Taly, if you're town, you really just need to claim immediately

[xyzzy]

hey Taly, yes or no question: was I lying when I said that you claimed cop in our PT? you haven't really explicitly said that I'm lying, and I want to be 100% sure that that's what you're claiming.

one way or another, a bunch of claims were going to come out today. I thought it was the right choice to come right out and confirm what you told me to do, because if you honestly think it's *not* a good idea to counterclaim as cop in that situation, you're just.......... utterly fucking daft

[xyzzy]

hey Taly, yes or no question: was I lying when I said that you claimed cop in our PT? you haven't really explicitly said that I'm lying, and I want to be 100% sure that that's what you're claiming.

one way or another, a bunch of claims were going to come out today. I thought it was the right choice to come right out and confirm what you told me to do, because if you honestly think it's *not* a good idea to counterclaim as cop in that situation, you're just.......... utterly fucking daft

just answer the fucking question taly

[xyzzy]

hey Taly, yes or no question: was I lying when I said that you claimed cop in our PT? you haven't really explicitly said that I'm lying, and I want to be 100% sure that that's what you're claiming.

one way or another, a bunch of claims were going to come out today. I thought it was the right choice to come right out and confirm what you told me to do, because if you honestly think it's *not* a good idea to counterclaim as cop in that situation, you're just.......... utterly fucking daft

just answer the fucking question taly

[xyzzy]

jesus fucking christ

[xyzzy]

great work losing the game for the town, Taly. really terrific job you did there

[xyzzy]

1) mafia, you have 24 hours to consent to PT release

*that one evil guy from the george lucas movie voice* do it

[xyzzy]

hey here's an idea for a stupid C14 variant: the two non-town players share an alignment and are treated as a normal unified faction no matter what, but they each roll either werewolf or mafia independently, so you have a 50% chance of a team of one wolf and one goon, a 25% chance of two wolves, and a 25% chance of two goons.

I'm gonna make a post about in the open setups subforum btw because I think this idea has legs