Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

Andycyca · Post Post #400 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 3:55 am

Vote Count:

goborage - 2 (Ythill, Sethaniel)
Ythill - 2 (JDodge, TSQ)
TSQ - 1 (Goborage)

Not voting (1): camisade

4 to lynch.

Strike count

[mrow]Player[col]Strikes camisade[col]LOOKING FOR REPLACEMENT TSQ[col] goborage[col] JDodge[col]X Sethaniel[col]X Ythill[col]

Andycyca · Post Post #401 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 7:06 am

Grimmy officially replaces Camisade

Grimmy · Post Post #402 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 8:22 am

Hello All.
Im checking in before I sift through the 16+ pages of sugary goodness.

I started reading, and im up to the math quiz part around page 3.

More later when the math doesnt make my head hurt so much.

Gri/mmy

Ythill · Post Post #403 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 9:03 am

TSQ wrote:I think you need to reread what my argument was in "the X is town Y is scum" argument. You responded to exactly what I said I wasn't saying lol.

Well... if that was what you had been saying, I win damnit!

Though I quoted and responded to the wrong bit after misreading it, I believe I still addressed the argument. Your take is that my suspicions have been vague and flighty enough to craft a net allowing me to reasonably vote for whomever. I said that those suspicions did change but only based on the changing evidence. You attributed an ulterior motive and I countered with the actual motive.

I also looked back but couldn't find where I called Dave town. I did defend him against allegations of lurking (that came from my main suspect) but I only said that IMO he wasn't lurking. Can you quote my town read on Dave?

Moreover, I still believe your opinion of the SK’s likely strategy is flawed. Look at the facts:

SK: Loses if we hang him today. Likely to lose if we hang town today. Can only kill the FBI if we hang scum today.
Scum: Might win tonight if we hang town today. Could prefer an SK lynch to a town lynch but it’s really a judgment/strategy call and they can still win the game no matter who we hang today.
Town: Might lose tonight if we hang town today. Obviously benefits more from a SK lynch than a scum lynch, though they can win the game in either case.

The SK is

the least likely

to want to keep his options open because he is only likely to win if we hang one of the two scum. This situation was similar (though not as desperate) on D1.

Now, it seems to me that the SK would be scumhunting avidly on D1 (not Dave, JD, or cam). The SK is likely to want to appear as if he isn’t interested in a D1 mass claim (not JD). He is likely to try and appear interested in a claim before D1 lynch, even if the claim is not needed (Dave and gob). He is unlikely to support a plan that would make it easier to find the SK (gob and Cam), but would be interested in a plan that reveals the FBI identity (everyone, though not all agreed on the timing) and/or one that makes it easier to find mafia (only gob strongly supported this while opposing the anti-SK version).

The SK would also be unwilling to lynch someone who is unlikely to be mafia. Seth and I are voting gob who is

obviously

either the SK or town. JD and TSQ are voting for me when all of their allegations point to me being the SK and a few points suggest I am not mafia (plus JD has been cleared). Cam’s vote doesn’t matter in this regard because he is the un-counter-claimed FBI. The only player left is gob and he’s voting for the person more likely than anyone else to be

mafia

.

TSQ: Forget, for the moment, my barbed counter-attack about you being scum because it made you miss my point...

If you believe I am only posting my suspicions after the writing is on the wall, then you must also believe that the writing is on the wall regarding gob. Why are you persuing me instead of him? What I mean is, what evidence do you have that he is not the SK (allowing you to dismiss the writing on the wall)?

Ythill · Post Post #404 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 9:04 am

And... hi Grimmy! I am quite interested in your opinions once you catch up.

Grimmy · Post Post #405 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 9:47 am

Its a hell of alot to catch up on.

Sheesh, you guys are so FULL of....words...

Grimmy · Post Post #406 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 10:08 am

Ill rereadit more tomorrow, but for now

FOS: Ythill

The last vote bothers me a bit too much. "avi has a few hours to respond, and others have a few hours to unvote"

This is saying, imho, that:
[quote=Reading between the lines] "I am going to hammer because I gain no matter who gets lynched, but will make this statement about giving a few hours (when the prod-deadline is 3-5 days) to justify my actions. I hope noone notices that I am hammering on a weekend where there is a chance that some people wont be able to get to their computers in time."
[/quote]

While I admire you taking the leadership role in this game, it seems to me it is because you are in a win/win situation no matter who gets lynched.

No vote yet, while I try to get a lead on a few others here.

Grimmy
will be back tomorrow sometime

Ythill · Post Post #407 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 11:16 am

Sigh...

Again. Note that I waited until those who asked to stall the hammer had posted but not unvoted. You will see my full defense, in argument form, during your reread.

goborage · Post Post #408 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 11:20 am

Lol I'm pretty sure everyone except for Seth has called you out on your play (scumpair?). Just curious, would you make the same play again in the future?

Sethaniel · Post Post #409 (ISO) » Wed Jun 04, 2008 6:54 pm

Hi Grimmy.

Ythill · Post Post #410 (ISO) » Thu Jun 05, 2008 1:35 pm

gob wrote:Just curious, would you make the same play again in the future?

It would depend on the situation but I wouldn't specifically avoid it because of what's transpired here. I mean, sure, people have said it was scummy but if they lynch me they will see my alignment and then they'll look at it from my point of view.

See, from my point of view the move caused two players to reveal their true colors. I can't complain about that.

Sethaniel · Post Post #411 (ISO) » Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:41 pm

Which two, Ythill? Gob and TSQ? Cause I'm totally with you, there. They both could've taken their votes off, and they didn't. (Of course, I think all three of you are scum, but hey.)

Ythill · Post Post #412 (ISO) » Fri Jun 06, 2008 4:07 pm

Precicely those two. However...

It is not just that they didn't remove their votes (which I wouldn't find scummy by itself), but that they also pretended they didn't want to lynch Avin yet.

Due to other evidence it is my opinion that TSQ is simple mafia while gob is the SK. Nothing new here.

Sethaniel · Post Post #413 (ISO) » Sat Jun 07, 2008 5:41 am

@Ythill: if we are a scumpair, we're sure being obvious about it.

JDodge · Post Post #414 (ISO) » Sat Jun 07, 2008 5:47 am

Ythill wrote:Precicely those two. However...

It is not just that they didn't remove their votes (which I wouldn't find scummy by itself), but that they also pretended they didn't want to lynch Avin yet.

Due to other evidence it is my opinion that TSQ is simple mafia while gob is the SK. Nothing new here.

There's a chance that, y'know, they

actually didn't want to lynch Avin yet

.

You will respond to this with a cop-out comment like "why were they voting him then", to which I will respond "votes are useful for more than just lynching". You will respond to this with another cop-out comment like "they can pressure him without votes", and I will respond "not as efficiently" or something similar.

There, I just saved us a few posts of work.

Ythill · Post Post #415 (ISO) » Sat Jun 07, 2008 6:11 am

Seth wrote:@Ythill: if we are a scumpair, we're sure being obvious about it.

If we are a scumpair, I got the wrong role PM.

@ JD: Actually, my "cop-out" response is: why didn't they unvote when the hammer was imminent? This sort of negates your projected response, but thanks for trying to be efficient.

TSQ can't really explain why Dave didn't unvote. However, gob has stated that he thought I would honor his request to withhold the hammer. Why would he think this?

If I am scum or SK and Avin was town or SK, I certainly wouldn't have withheld the hammer. If I am town, I wouldn't have lied about the fact that I was going to hammer. The

only

scenario where I would have withheld that hammer is if Avin and I were scumbuddies. At the time, gob had neither made nor hinted at any such theory.

In the absence of his silly excuse, the only reason I can see for gob (1) saying he wanted to wait on the lynch and (2) neglecting to unvote when a lynch was imminent is that he actually did want to lynch Avin but wanted us to believe otherwise.

Seriously, JD, these are some pretty solid tells. I know you can be stubborn but I still don't understand why you can't see what's going on here.

Ythill · Post Post #416 (ISO) » Sun Jun 08, 2008 3:22 am

Was skimming the thread in preparation for making a "where is everyone" post, and I noticed Seth's new sig. I think that's the first time I've been quoted in a sig. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside, like an inverted bunny rabbit.

Anyway... where is everybody?

JDodge · Post Post #417 (ISO) » Sun Jun 08, 2008 7:25 am

Ythill wrote:
Seth wrote:@Ythill: if we are a scumpair, we're sure being obvious about it.
If we are a scumpair, I got the wrong role PM.

@ JD: Actually, my "cop-out" response is: why didn't they unvote when the hammer was imminent? This sort of negates your projected response, but thanks for trying to be efficient.

No, not really. My responses are still entirely valid.

Ythill wrote:TSQ can't really explain why Dave didn't unvote. However, gob has stated that he thought I would honor his request to withhold the hammer. Why would he think this?

Because he assumed you were a rational and intelligent member of the town perhaps?

Ythill wrote:If I am scum or SK and Avin was town or SK, I certainly wouldn't have withheld the hammer. If I am town, I wouldn't have lied about the fact that I was going to hammer. The
only
scenario where I would have withheld that hammer is if Avin and I were scumbuddies. At the time, gob had neither made nor hinted at any such theory.

If you were scum or SK, you wouldn't say "I did what I would do as scum". You would always try to justify it from a town perspective. That makes this paragraph useless in that sense.

Ythill wrote:In the absence of his silly excuse, the only reason I can see for gob (1) saying he wanted to wait on the lynch and (2) neglecting to unvote when a lynch was imminent is that he actually did want to lynch Avin but wanted us to believe otherwise.

Or, y'know, he didn't want to immediately end the day and wanted to make absolutely sure he was ready for this in such a setup where mislynching is so harmful.

Ythill · Post Post #418 (ISO) » Sun Jun 08, 2008 2:56 pm

JD wrote:Or, y'know, he didn't want to immediately end the day and wanted to make absolutely sure he was ready for this in such a setup where mislynching is so harmful.

Then why didn't he unvote. You know? Like we'd assume that a rational and intelligent member of the town would have in your example?

Stop dilluting the case. Facts:

I wanted to lynch Avin. I had both the power to do so and the power to prevent it at that moment. I was explicit in my intent, allowed gob and Dave to post, and then did exactly what I said I was going to do.

Gob wanted to lynch Avin. He had both the power to do so and the power to prevent it at that moment. When he heard it was going to happen, he

said

that he didn't want it to happen yet but he

failed to excercise

the power to attain that outcome.

It's not like he didn't know he had the power. It's not like he has any reason to assume that I'm town. Did he give such a read? I don't believe so. In fact, he was

suspecting me

just before the lynch, because of my attack on Dave. Why would a townie assume that one of his suspects was a townie?

Short answer: he didn't. He's lying... again.

Perhaps my actions were not the best pro-town course, but they were transparent. Gob's were dishonest. Townies can err strategically but can they accidentally lie?

ISO · Post Post #419 (ISO) » Sun Jun 08, 2008 10:05 pm

I'm sorry that I haven't been keeping up with this game. I hhave been pretty busy as of late with work.

I'll try to contribute a lot in the recent future.

Sethaniel · Post Post #420 (ISO) » Sun Jun 08, 2008 11:26 pm

@Ythill: I thought it was a pretty decent meta. (inverted rabbit? ick.)

I still agree with Ythill. "I thought you wouldn't hammer because I asked you not to" doesn't seem to me like a reasonable assumption in this game. Previously, JD had a wagon on him, and Ythill unvoted because he wasn't ready to lynch yet.

Gob asked Ythill not to hammer because he wanted Avina to claim. (Who benefits most from claiming? The SK.) Gob left his vote on avinas, then attacked Ythill for hammering a townie.

Gob and Dave/TSQ both seem to be taking the scummy position of "we're not responsible for lynching a townie, because we didn't hammer."

Must go back to work. Try to post later.

ISO · Post Post #421 (ISO) » Sun Jun 08, 2008 11:49 pm

I am not taking that position at all...

I cant speak for dave, but my guess is that he was fully supportive of that lynch AFTER the claim. That is the major distinction. AFTER the claim. Ythill is directly responsible for cutting off the info before that point was reached. Several people had asked ythill NOT to hammer, and he did so in spite of this, seemingly just to use the argument that they could have unvoted (since it was in the towns best interest to wait for the claim, he should have waited)

Furthermore, You are miss characterizing the argument against ythill. It is not "You are responsible for lynching a townie." Obviously everyone on the lynch is equally responsible in that regard. The argument was instead that he deprived the town of information, and went against the best interests and wishes of the town. Thats a much serious claim, and much stronger than the straw one you just attacked.

Andycyca · Post Post #422 (ISO) » Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:59 am

Strike time. Deadline coming soon

goborage · Post Post #423 (ISO) » Mon Jun 09, 2008 7:43 am

Unvote, Vote: Ythill

In my eyes, better you than me.

ISO · Post Post #424 (ISO) » Mon Jun 09, 2008 7:46 am

goborage wrote:
Unvote, Vote: Ythill
In my eyes, better you than me.

Thats a perfectly rational reaction, I think.

but:

One would think you'd have other thoughts on the wagon.

WHat do you think of the case on ythill?

Do you believe he is scum? If so, why did you not vote for him earlier? If not, don't you think it would be more rational to vote for a player who you DO think is scum, and attempt to steer the town that way?

If you had to name 1 player sk and 2 mafia, who would you choose?