Mini 2084: Pokemon Ruby Mafia - Game Over

[Gamma Emerald]

You know what I'm locking myself in on this hunch: I think Menalque is town and our dichotomy is a TvT. The level of unwillingness to change the course of things tells me scum have 2 mislynches lined up easy. Obviously this points to RP but Chemist and EP are also worth looking at currently. Beyond that I'm going to poke into the wagon shifting weirdness I noted earlier.

You really seem to be driving this dichotomy between me and Menalque forward

[EspressoPatronum]

So from that I feel like EP and Chemist have greater partner equity from a quick look around out of any pair I'd consider between (RP, Chemist, EP).

To clarify my stance on Chemist:
It's not that I think he's town per se, it's that I think one of you or Mena needs to die. As I agree with Mena's position, I think you need to die.

If we don't do it now + the fight continues, there's a very slim chance either of you will die from scum. If that happens, we'll likely have to resolve it later in the game when it hurts more if we're wrong. Unresolved disputes like this tend to lead to both parties making it to a mylo/lylo scenario.

Lynching Chemist would prolong Mena v Gamma. Since I think prolonging Mena v Gamma is bad, lynching Chemist today is also bad.

[EspressoPatronum]

You know what I'm locking myself in on this hunch: I think Menalque is town and our dichotomy is a TvT. The level of unwillingness to change the course of things tells me scum have 2 mislynches lined up easy. Obviously this points to RP but Chemist and EP are also worth looking at currently. Beyond that I'm going to poke into the wagon shifting weirdness I noted earlier.

You really seem to be driving this dichotomy between me and Menalque forward

I am indeed. See my post above.

[Gamma Emerald]

Yeah, and I think that's the current scum agenda. That's why I quoted the post when responding to you.

[Pink Ball]

I think Gamma is right and both him and Menalque are town. Join me on Chemist now

[Pink Ball]

My only concern about Gamma is that I think it's weird he hasn't been lynched already as town, but maybe the scumteam got ambitious and thought town would mess things up

[Gamma Emerald]

I think Gamma is right and both him and Menalque are town. Join me on Chemist now

If someone else votes Chemist I'll go but for now I think the lead on EP is stronger

[Pink Ball]

You just realized that, I think you could convince yourself onto Chemist as easily as you convinced yourself EP is scum

[Klick]

VOTE: EspressoPatronum
Honestly everyone not Menalque that's voting me could be scum but I don't think scum just fucking dogpile their votes, I understand I argued otherwise before but that was from a VCA standpoint, here I just think stacking reduces ability to control the game.

So from that I feel like EP and Chemist have greater partner equity from a quick look around out of any pair I'd consider between (RP, Chemist, EP).

Chemist is also okay but EP's vote broadcasts the exact behavior I'm anticipating from scum here.

I'm confused - what does this mean?

[Gamma Emerald]

I looked at some posts from Day 2 and I think there's some stuff between Chemist and EP that possibly indicates partners compared to either RP and EP or RP and Chemist. I'm not going to say those two are for certain partners yet but it's a decent idea based on my current beliefs.

[EspressoPatronum]

I looked at some posts from Day 2 and I think there's some stuff between Chemist and EP that possibly indicates partners compared to either RP and EP or RP and Chemist. I'm not going to say those two are for certain partners yet but it's a decent idea based on my current beliefs.

Can you quote the posts? I looked through my ISO and Chemist's ISO but I don't see where you're coming from.

That being said, here's my guesses:
1. Our minimal interactions;
2. Chemist's vote on you after my vote on you; or
3. My deflection of the Chemist wagon.

Let me know which, if any, are the reasons + I'll be happy to talk it through with you.

[Gamma Emerald]

3 is the main thing I noticed, but 1 and 2 are worth looking into as well

[EspressoPatronum]

3 is the main thing I noticed, but 1 and 2 are worth looking into as well

And you're not satisfied with 1426, right?

In your opinion, what do we do on D3 if:
1. We lynch you and you're town;
2. We lynch you and you're scum;
3. We lynch Chemist and he's town;
4. We lynch Chemist and he's scum.

My thoughts:

Spoiler:

If scenario #3 or #4, there's a high likelihood that you and Mena are still up for discussion tomorrow.*

If scenario #2, Mena gets a pseudo-townclear.

If scenario #1, I'm not sure tbh. I think Mena is town either way, but I don't know how the others would interpret it.

* Unless you convince Mena that you're town. In that case, you solve the problem of #3 and #4.

[ofrhz]

soz about the prod i'm here

[ofrhz]

I don’t think menalque is just making up meta. A couple of cinnamons posts do seem like busywork. Cinnamon asking Tim for his townreads is a pretty general/vague question whereas cinn seems to only have asked questions about a specific player in his completed town games.

As in, I don’t see why you think “he started with a conclusion and found reasoning afterwards” in his cinn case. Can you explain that klick?

I don't think Menalque's reasoning is entirely fabricated, but I think the many things he quoted in evidence against CinnaGamma aren't the reasons he's pushing the slot. He replaced in and immediately scumread Cinnamon, and I doubt he had all those reasons in mind when he started scumreading him. Basically he seems to have confirmation bias, except he shouldn't have confirmation by any means.

I can see how you might think the Gamma case was him conf-biasing, but what about his case on Cinnamon? I'm basically interested in your evaluation of his cases separately

[Gamma Emerald]

3 is the main thing I noticed, but 1 and 2 are worth looking into as well

And you're not satisfied with 1426, right?

In your opinion, what do we do on D3 if:
1. We lynch you and you're town;
2. We lynch you and you're scum;
3. We lynch Chemist and he's town;
4. We lynch Chemist and he's scum.

My thoughts:

Spoiler:

If scenario #3 or #4, there's a high likelihood that you and Mena are still up for discussion tomorrow.*

If scenario #2, Mena gets a pseudo-townclear.

If scenario #1, I'm not sure tbh. I think Mena is town either way, but I don't know how the others would interpret it.

* Unless you convince Mena that you're town. In that case, you solve the problem of #3 and #4.

I'm going to ignore 2 as fmpov it's not possible.
1: poke at Menalque but do not lynch him without serious consideration of others. Assuming a standard scumteam suze he'd be 1/3 of the scum even if he is scum, so he'd have partners.
3: I'd expect to get seriously FOSed for swaying lynch onto Chemist.
4: Take the scumflip into account and partner hunt hardcore.

[Pine]

FINALLY at my computer for the first real time in ~36 hours.

We're in our first week of summer camp with kids (last week was staff only) and my schedule is 18-hours-a-day nuts. Wednesday is my big day, where the theme week climaxes, and the second half of the week usually sees me in the office preparing all of the big stuff for the next week. In the office more = more time to spend here.

As requested, here is my unaltered N1 catchup. Only the vote at the end has been snipped, because I'm still ~18 pages behind. It likely won't change, though.

[Pine]

Okay, stream of consciousness overnight catch-up post...BEGIN.

Sorted through my ISO to find where I really started paying attention, hoping I can pick up that thread. Pithy entrance, empty promise to read back issues, quick check to clear Creature, ah.

So is DP a no-go today?

This pings my scumdar hard.

Let's start here. This remains valid. I don't know if DP is an alt, newbie, or what, but this pings me regardless. Town has reads or it doesn't. If it's not sure, it says so. Gaining and abandoning reads is normal. Seeking

permission

to pursue their reads is not Town.

502 to 507 come off kind of scummy from TG/RC. RC is way too experienced a player to really believe in a URAP2!flaking = URAP2!scum argument. It's a strawman against an undefended goal. Yeah, I know, it's RC, and loose cannon shite like this is kind of his forte, but I've seen tons of evidence that he takes advantage of his meta as scum to get away with things you wouldn't normally be able to do. Like this. Putting a pin in this, as it's too early to actually get rid of such a strong player without damning evidence.

In contrast, 501 on the same topic is the kind of rational consideration that makes Town!Creature so obvious.

517 - Blatant sheeping/buddying to the loudest leaders.
528 - TG/RC seeing Creature as a threat, then 529 jumping in a completely different direction
530 - Second empty sheeping I've seen from DP in as many pages
539 - THIS one feels like the scummy sheep, though. A naked sheep vote is bad, but an awfully-reasoned excuse to join the wagon is miles worse. Keeping an eye on Chemist
562 - A *third* quickfire example of DP mimicking TG/RC's reads without independent reasoning. I think this rules out a TG/DP scumteam, I don't think they scum theatre this badly
~Page 20 - 23 - ohfrz generally impressing me with Towniness. Asking good questions, isn't intimidated by TG/RC, displays independent reasoning. Unfazed by a flashwagon on him
574 - TG/RC immediately moves to discredit newbie replacement, par for the course.
~Page 23-24 - Menalque entrance strongly reminiscent of the Newbie game we played together where he was painfully obvTown
596 RC (just going to stop calling him Tim) again moves to discredit and silence alternate viewpoint. RC redflip strongly implicates GEmerald/Cinnamon.
~Page 25 - Menalque standing his ground remains Townish
615 - DP going after LUV slot starts the LUV/Firebringer wagon while the goal is undefended for godawful reasons. Solicits ohfrz teamup. At least the fourth baseless votehop in half a dozen pages.
632 - 634 - GEmerald reaction to Menalque's suspicion is bad.

>>>>At this point I am looking at {TG/RC, GEmerald, maybe DP or Chemist} as preliminary scumteam<<<<<

639 is Towny as fuck, Menalque practically takes the words out of my mouth here.
641 - RedPanda wall also Towny af
651 - Oh right Klick is in this. Haven't seen anything useful from them
>>>ISO skim<<<
---->Pushing RC and DP early on, asking solid questions, seems independently reasoned, need to see what 799 is all about when I get there. Conclusion: Nothing scummy apparent, plenty of Townpoints to be had, moving on

idk I have too many townreads at this moment I think. I need to prune that list.

I am gonna call scum rn as pinkball, ofrhz, and Pine. Why Pine? Idk. I want to townread pine and that is the only reason I want to say he is town so he must actually be scum.

my logic is flawless.

Awwww, flattered.

Everything I can see from Firebringer on page 27-28 looks like pugnacious Town. Cheap to say so after he's flipped, but this makes me want to scrutinize the upcoming wagon.

742 - Fourth blind-sheep from DP following RC, fifth empty vote. DP really developing into my prime suspect. RC could just be being RC, GEmerald not suspicious if RC!Town, Chemist too low content to case, but DP is scumming the hell out of this game right now.
746 - Is this a strawman? I'm not sure if that's the term for what's going on here, but DP is definitely making up a bullshit case. Probably not a DP/GEmerald team. Possible scumteams kind of dividing. {RC, GEmerald, (Chemist/EP)} vs {DP, (Chemist), (EP)}. So far evidence against DP/RC and DP/GEmerald

((Pause at page 30, half way break))
SOLID TOWNLIST
Creature
Klick
ofrhz

PROBABLY TOWN
RedPanda
Menalque
Pink Ball

POSSIBLE SCUMTEAM 1
RC/Tim
GEmerald

POSSIBLE SCUMTEAM 2
Detective Pikachu

POSSIBLY SCUM ON EITHER TEAM
Chemist
Espresso Patronum

UNKNOWN
Pink Ball

799 - Crap, Klick's "100% Town!" on Pink Ball was in jest. Back to zero with that read. as hoping that would help. Need to ISO now.
>>>ISO skim<<<
---->Mostly shitposting, interspersed with real reads, like 614. Upcoming 807 looks organic and spontaneous/genuine. I don't agree with many of his conclusions, but process seems fine. Can be Town until he does something to dissuade me. Looking ahead, posts until EOD follow similar pattern of shitposting/reading. Editing above readslist to properly reflext PB.
818 + 820 - First solidly Townish thing I've seen from GEmerald
822 + 824 + FB on Page 34 - Ughhhh I probably would have scumread Firebringer for this too. Hard to say after the fact, but he'd at least have ruined my incipient Townread on him.
825 -

Fifth

blatant sheep of RC by DP, and sixth low-content votehop in 14 pages
841 - Weirdly getting Town!RC vibes from this interaction. Might just be because I'm so intent on DP and have ruled out DP/RC team.
851 - First independent thought I've seen from EP, also first time I've seen him make any effort to stand up for himself
863 - 865 - Several more good EP posts. I don't see the positive value of lining up lynches when you know the first domino is going to flip green. EP might be Town after all, which blasts a hole in my suspected DP-anchored scumteam. Will revisit when I have time (read: prob never)
870 - First Menalque post that didn't bleed Town as far as I can recall. Also seems to be laying low now that the pressure's off. Big entrance, fights off wagon, disappears. HMMMMMMMM
901 - Reeeeeally don't like this L-2 by GEmerald. Looks a lot like scum casually increasing the pressure/pushing to EOD.
>>>Lots of shitposting going on here
926 - Really? A self L-1? In what world does that work to ratchet down pressure?
936 - Ummm a fucking SIXTH DP sheep of RC. Yeah, I know they were both already voting Firebringer, but at this point the only Town explanation for it is that he's got some kind of repressive post restriction that mandates he chain his vote to RC and not talk about it
940 - I don't blame this AT ALL after the last couple of pages
941 - No shit
949 - Yeah, Klick is Town. Scum!Klick takes the ball and runs with it, they don't get introspective.
986 - And that's flip.

===============================

OKAY

I think the above readslist can stand. It's got some complications, like some late-day doubts on the Menalque and EP reads, but it's a solid start.

DP is my chief suspect going into D2, with that flip determining whether I go after RC/GEmerald or dive into the Chemist, EP, Menalque morass.

<<<Vote on DP removed until I can finish catch-up>>>

[Gamma Emerald]

Can I get a recap on what made you suspect me?

[Pine]

At the time? It was inspired by my scum!RC read.

Menalque (whom I TR) comes in, points a finger at you. RC attacks the shit out of Menalque. On that evidence, little things supported the read.

It is, obviously, obsolete. This is one of the big reasons I didn't want to post the overnight catchup unaltered.

[Pine]

818 and 820 were counter-evidence for the read, but your vote on Firebringer still looks scummy as hell. With an RC greenflip, it puts you into a kind of neutral limbo that needs to be sorted.

The fact that you seem to not be interested in any of the nuanced things I had to say, including all of the above, and jumped only to "what's he think about me" does you no favors.

[Gamma Emerald]

At the time? It was inspired by my scum!RC read.

Menalque (whom I TR) comes in, points a finger at you. RC attacks the shit out of Menalque. On that evidence, little things supported the read.

It is, obviously, obsolete. This is one of the big reasons I didn't want to post the overnight catchup unaltered.

So it was associative to RC
Fyi I feel your wall is p towny because everything felt sensible

[Gamma Emerald]

Anyway, thoughts on my ideas I've proposed recently?

[Pine]

Anyway, thoughts on my ideas I've proposed recently?

I'm not there yet.

I've had approximately zero time since the first campers of the season arrived ~54 hours ago.

(For those interested, I am the Program Director. I answer directly to the overall Camp Director, and my job primarily deals with the design, logistics, and execution of all major activities. I also oversee all of the program staff, like lifeguards, boating, archery, arts and crafts, nature, and our ropes course. That's on top of general responsibilities as one of the senior leadership staffers who might get asked to cover nearly any area or group of kids at a moment's notice, and the fact that I'm the on-duty evening EMT. The second half of the week is better. Robin Hood will have defeated the Sheriff of Nottingham after the tournament tomorrow, the problem with our Nature director's lesson plan that ate up most of my Tuesday has been resolved, and it's mostly resolution-phase story elements and office work prepping next week for me now.)

So it's 12:20 AM and I'm in the dining hall wifi. I have a big day tomorrow, until after the big campwide activity in the early afternoon. The downhill side of my week is pretty relaxed, my job is mostly frontloaded. I'm going to bed now, I expect tomorrow I can get current.

[Pink Ball]

I have a secret interaction that I want to hold until flipping Chemist, but there's someone who would look AWFUL if Chemist flips scum

Since Gamma talked about interactions between Chemist and someone else...

If Chemist flips scum, Klick is scum too. Read Chemist's ISO on D1.