Mini Normal 2119 [game over]

[Datisi]

That's a lot of brain power for me rn

Can i just sheep your vote

[Iconeum]

Rather we work together

there's close to 3 days left

[Iconeum]

You can interpret that like I'm not taking full responsability for *wrong reads*

[Datisi]

Can i get back to you on this in like three hours my brain is shutting down rn thanks

[Iconeum]

If we lynch let’s say 2 out of (wilky, emps, pine) and get 2 greens then it’s probably time to look again at looker, icon, bji, tchill but for now I think that lot are locktownable

VOTE: pine

Talk to me about why you consider Pine a better lynch then someone in the bracket?

[Iconeum]

Can i get back to you on this in like three hours my brain is shutting down rn thanks

[Iconeum]

Getting my current thoughts out there before Pine and emps get replaced and everything gets mixed up with new reads on new players:

AaronFrost/Ico: this pair is either both town or Aaron is scum and Ico is town. The chances of them both being scum is very low and if they are, then this will become obvious by later days anyways so I think we can play as if it is known that they are not both scum, at least for now.

Bob1341: has moved up in my estimation from "least likely town" to null. I have a hard time reading bob because he asks so many questions and although I do appreciate his technique - the few things he said about *why* he asks questions the way he does really resonated with me - but this is NAI - I do not have a strong feeling either way on his alignment. But:

@Bob

- By reading ico/aaron/emps exchange and thinking about what happened, I believe I have concluded what ico's role is and what he is doing. If you are town, please read carefully instead of asking ico to role claim.

Datisi - remains null for me. Was rising in my estimation towards the end of Day 1. I am watching closely.

emps - if Aaron is scum then emps is a likely partner. If Aaron is town then emps might be scum ascetic trying to make Aaron look bad. I have a scum lean on emps.

Looker - I am conflicted. I never scum read looker day 1 but the quickhammer was not necessary and post 1455 pings me the wrong way. I would say very slightly town reading this slot.

Menalque - hard to read iso because of all of the garbage in it with UltimatePlank; seemed so excited about the game at first and then ... trailed off? Hasn't even posted post-flip? I don't understand players like that, is it all about RVS with them? Anyway still on the scummy end of null in my estimation.

Pine - no comment, except, if he is scum, then he's *actual* scum for playing it like this.

Slaxx/Wilky - I had a weak town lean on Wilky, I'm null on Slaxx, so the slot stays weakly town for me.

TChill/UP - I had a town read on UltimatePlank, but the slot lost a little lustre for me when tchill took it, with the very weird read on his own slot, and disinterest in the game after an initial read of the game. If the scum team is { chemslot/tchill/pine } that would explain alot of this game.

PEDIT: Micc replaced in while I was writing the above, now I have to read ...

Strong STRONG disagree with bolded. Scum!Aaron doesn't target his buddy during the night with an investigative. If Emps flips town, Aaron gets extra scum points. If we lynch Emps (Micc) however, and that flips scum, Aaron is cleared. If Emps is town, Aaron gets extra scumpoints. There is NOT A SINGLE scenario where they are scum/scum.

[Iconeum]

VOTE: Pine

L-1

If you see associations between 2 players, you lynch in them. Not in the slot that has done literally nothing all game and will contribute nothing to your solve, barring an actual scumflip.

A town!emps flip will at least provide additional information. And a scum!emps flip will confirm Aaron as town.

@everyone voting Pine: Please provide your reasons why this is actually a good lynch today.

[Iconeum]

VOTE: Pine

I'm still trying to get to the place where I can say I'm fully caught up, but it's becoming increasingly clear that Pine's not interested in being here.

This is the place where the Pine wagon actually started?

And we are sheeping one of the most suspicious slots in the game on a non-present slot?

Micc isn't even scumreading Pine!

[Iconeum]

That’s fine. I agree the case against emps is strong and that my slot has high scum equity.

But in a world where we have a claimed cop, surely pine is the lynch target and I’m the cop check not the other way around?

Yes the case on your slot is strong. Yes your slot has high scum equity.

We have a claimed cop that had *no result*. We are not putting faith into a slot that has either high % of being NK'd, or equally high % of not having another result.

And then we go into tomorrow, with NO INFORMATION on a Pine lynch.

We are lynching Mecc today. Or you guys convince me otherwise.

[Menalque]

vote count 1.21

Chemist1422 (7)

:

Iconeum

,

GuiltyLion

,

bji

,

bob3141

,

Menalque

,

Datisi

,

Looker

Looker (4)

:

Chemist1422

,

wilky

,

emps

,

AaronFrost

not voting:

Pine

,

Tchill13

with 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

This phase ends in (expired on 2020-02-19 08:00:00)


mod notes: quack

Willing to vote in any of those 4 names

Pedit: okay willing to lynch in any of those 4 names -AFF

@icon, this is why, if you have a look

If the reason chem wagon stalled so hard was that scum weren’t willing to get on, which I think is more plausible than scum getting on super early (esp with GL now flipping town meaning it would have to be you or bji in that universe) then it means scum were resisting the wagon all the way through

Of those other names, one is self resolving, so he’s out of contention for today

I still think plank!slot is just town after fighting with him

Which leaves 2/3 scum in (pine, micc, slaxx)

I’d be kind of surprised if all the scum got on looker one after another, which I think makes it more likely that we have pine!scum + 1 scum in (micc, slaxx)

[Iconeum]

Agreed menal

but why is Pine a better lynch then emps/micc today

mecc lynch provides much more information

[Micc]

Iconeum, have you ever replaced into a 60 page game?

Pointing out and asking about things that look important but don’t make sense is part of catching up. And in a lot of cases once context is given things make a little more sense but you still think that’s a silly way to play it. That’s my whole catch up. I think you’re much better off judging me where I landed with my catchup reads than anything I said while trying to determine what is important and the context.

I understand that probably lands me in a spot where I get lynched eventually. I agree the case against emps is strong. But I don’t think I’m the lynch today. Give another night for the claimed cop to try and solve me while lynching the player who is proving he won’t be useful down the road even if he’s town.

[Iconeum]

You could also look at the Great Evacuation of the Lynching of Chemist on D1.

Pine was a non-player throughout. Emps has bad asso on lynch. I agree that Aaron gets a pass right now. But not Micc/Emps.

[Micc]

I mean, pines a no information lynch when ever you do it....and surely you’re going to do it?

So like, do you want that no information lynch now or in the heart of the game?

[Iconeum]

Iconeum, have you ever replaced into a 60 page game?

Pointing out and asking about things that look important but don’t make sense is part of catching up. And in a lot of cases once context is given things make a little more sense but you still think that’s a silly way to play it. That’s my whole catch up. I think you’re much better off judging me where I landed with my catchup reads than anything I said while trying to determine what is important and the context.

I understand that probably lands me in a spot where I get lynched eventually. I agree the case against emps is strong. But I don’t think I’m the lynch today. Give another night for the claimed cop to try and solve me while lynching the player who is proving he won’t be useful down the road even if he’s town.

This isn't personal, but I strongly believe we are better off lynching the actual scummy slot because the case is already made.
Use the cop to check in a more doubtful/unreadable (because no contribution) slot like Pine.

Pine flips town, you are still the lynch tomorrow barring a cop clear (knowing his N1 result already failed…)
Pine flips scum, you are still the lynch tomorrow because of all the reasons.

I cannot see an objective reason why we should spare you today.

[Iconeum]

I mean, pines a no information lynch when ever you do it....and surely you’re going to do it?

So like, do you want that no information lynch now or in the heart of the game?

Pine can still enter the game and play, or be replaced. There can be content to be judged, whereas your slot already is labeled as scum.
Like, I wouldn't even trust a cop clear from Aaron on you, because I don't fully trust Aaron. And he didn't get a result on N1, so it's too risky.

[Micc]

I cannot see an objective reason why we should spare you today.

Well, I’m gunna play the game if I’m alive tomorrow and that’s only ~25% true for pine.

Also it’s the middle of the night for me and I can’t let this bathroom break turn into half a night of sleep. I’ll be around tomorrow

[Iconeum]

I cannot see an objective reason why we should spare you today.

Well, I’m gunna play the game if I’m alive tomorrow and that’s only ~25% true for pine.

Also it’s the middle of the night for me and I can’t let this bathroom break turn into half a night of sleep. I’ll be around tomorrow

The difference is that your slot already has the scummy content and asso, whereas Pine hasn't done anything to sort him over.

Micc, if you had the choice between lynching someone with that bad of an asso, and scummy content (which you admitted to yourself), OR a completely irrelevant slot that has posted nothing yet.

Which one do you pick?

[Menalque]

Agreed menal

but why is Pine a better lynch then emps/micc today

mecc lynch provides much more information

Bc it does a better job of reducing universes imo

If pine!scum, I think it’s very likely that I’m correct and the world we’re in is where all the resistance to chem!wagon was from scum staying off

But pine!town means that if that’s true then all 3 scum were on the counterwagon which seems, idk, excessively bold as a D1 strat when you know that looker flipping green means chem prob gets lynched D3 at the latest and that your associations will look terrible

So pine!town means seriously looking at the wagon again to see if anyone bussed — particularly in dats/bob but also at you/bji, I think looker is prob town regardless

Whereas emps!scum means we’re still prob lynching pine the next day

But emps!town doesn’t reduce the universes, as I think emps!town means it could still be (pine, slaxx) and I think makes it easier for scum to stay UTR as we keep working off an incorrect model of what happened D1

[Menalque]

Also, icon, I feel like you’re forgetting that AFF is gonna self resolve? Like if he’s town then scum have to kill him or risk getting guiltied, or if they leave him alive to try and get paranoia lynched then he’ll presumably have clears?

If he’s scum then he’s forced to keep clearing people, and if he fakes a guilty then after they flip town we lynch him

[Menalque]

I cannot see an objective reason why we should spare you today.

Well, I’m gunna play the game if I’m alive tomorrow and that’s only ~25% true for pine.

Also it’s the middle of the night for me and I can’t let this bathroom break turn into half a night of sleep. I’ll be around tomorrow

The difference is that your slot already has the scummy content and asso, whereas

Pine hasn't done anything to sort him over.

Micc, if you had the choice between lynching someone with that bad of an asso, and scummy content (which you admitted to yourself), OR a completely irrelevant slot that has posted nothing yet.

Which one do you pick?

Disagree

Pine has been monitoring the game enough to respond to people when he’s been called on/called out but has made exactly zero effort or contribution to game solving in any of those posts

He’s just made excuses for why he’s not here and isn’t doing anything and doesn’t seem interested in scumhunting

Pine being lurky is NAI -> pine actively avoiding content when he does drop into thread is AI

[Iconeum]

Agreed menal

but why is Pine a better lynch then emps/micc today

mecc lynch provides much more information

Bc it does a better job of reducing universes imo

If pine!scum, I think it’s very likely that I’m correct and the world we’re in is where all the resistance to chem!wagon was from scum staying off

But pine!town means that if that’s true then all 3 scum were on the counterwagon which seems, idk, excessively bold as a D1 strat when you know that looker flipping green means chem prob gets lynched D3 at the latest and that your associations will look terrible

So pine!town means seriously looking at the wagon again to see if anyone bussed — particularly in dats/bob but also at you/bji, I think looker is prob town regardless

Whereas emps!scum means we’re still prob lynching pine the next day

But emps!town doesn’t reduce the universes, as I think emps!town means it could still be (pine, slaxx) and I think makes it easier for scum to stay UTR as we keep working off an incorrect model of what happened D1

Well no.

You say Pine!scum = aaron scum
and Pine!town = aaron scum

You are leaving out the fact there already has been a No Result. What makes it so sure there will be one tomorrow?
You are leaving out the fact that Pine is NOT independently scummy. He's completely and utterly null.
Micc/emps is actually scummy, with a claimed cop that couldn't get a read on him, and with terrible asso to the flipped scum.

Hot take: if Emps is scum, and we ever see a Pine!Town flip, menal is likely the third.

[Iconeum]

Also, icon, I feel like you’re forgetting that AFF is gonna self resolve? Like if he’s town then scum have to kill him or risk getting guiltied, or if they leave him alive to try and get paranoia lynched then he’ll presumably have clears?

If he’s scum then he’s forced to keep clearing people, and if he fakes a guilty then after they flip town we lynch him

He literally had no result on N1. Explain your 'keep clearing people'.

[Iconeum]

He’s just made excuses for why he’s not here and isn’t doing anything and doesn’t seem interested in scumhunting

this reasoning to lynch Pine

vs a slot that has terrible asso with the scum lynch, couldn't get copped and claimed that it basicly should have gotten a result, with Micc repping in and blatantly role fishing + everything i wrote earlier

and you wanna go lynch the low baller