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[Farkran]

I don’t think Hectic is scum, but if he is, there’s not shit I can do about it now, can I? I can’t push further to sort, I can’t do shit. So I just have to accept it and hope my read was right.

Or you can try and lynch his partner instead of pushing a player who has no valid associatives in a gamestate where town!hectic was spared.

I understand trying to sort players to verify the validity of my claims and lynch hectic later, which is why i am not completely against my lynch, but the alternative is more accurate and efficient.

[Bingle]

I don’t think Farkran was going to be lynched on day 2, but I absolutely think I, personally, could have rallied a farkran mislynch at some point in the game as scum, as PoE narrows. Like I think it would be easy to do and competent scum would think so as well, though I could be wrong. I think any scum we have here is competent, so... I mean they could have a different perspective than me, but they’re definitely competent.

Sure. So could I. It would be crazy easy to lynch him from the seat of someone who already suspect him. The question is why he lives if it’s specifically Hectic and either nacho or Chara.

If that’s the case, the pressure on Fark amped up immediately after there was only one scum in the thread. It’s not impossible that Psyche was killed by someone looking to mislynch Fark, sure, just as it’s not impossible that scum killed him to make me easier to lynch. Scum did choose to kill him over Replica though, at the very least and I’m wondering why that didn’t change his thoughts.

[Amrun]

This night kill was to be almost certainly in Psyche or Replica, the two most widely townread slots. Even if not the strongest townreads, pretty much no one was scumreading them by the end of d2. Psyche over Replica because Psyche reads could actually have a chance to be correct, although they probably needed some improvements.

3S/1F is ideal for scum because they get to remove 2 people unflipped and we don't even get to know if there is scum among the spared or not - assuming we don't lynch scum today, that is.

2S/2F is still good for scum because Psyche gets to be the ninja killer and he's probably targeting Amrun in this scenario.

Uhm... i just realized that Amrun could be scum too, but it would be very short sighted of her to kill Psyche specifically n2 knowing that we were probably going for a lynch by removing 1 sparepusher, when they could instead kill Replica who would have surely shot me - and then remove Psyche n3 - for the same effect with less risk.

This was his post on his matter at the time. What point are you getting at right now, Bingle?

[Bingle]

TL;DR i still think Hectic is scum and that's why you do not understand that it's pointless to look for scum associatives in the current alive list.

There are 6 names to sort:

Me you nacho Amrun Chara Hectic. That is 100% a small enough pool to associative hunt, especially with a white flag day.

FMPOV, Farkran is really unlikely scum with anyone, while it can be argued in scum with pretty much anyone except Amrun fairly convincingly because of the low impact of my slot. We have, functionally, 2 mislynches remaining before we need to hit scum. (The lynch today and the vig tonight.) If my green flip is pseudoclearing for Farkran then people who are town and want Farkran dead should be trying to lynch me. Fark flipping green does shit for my slot. I could easily be a nacho or Chara or even Hectic partner here. And this isn’t really news, I brought it up yesterday and no one really disputed the conclusions past a vague “well maybe you’re wrong”.

It’s pretty much the whole reason I wanted a chem lynch. I wasn’t sold that he was scum, but lynching him narrowed down the association pool majorly, to make today easier.

[Bingle]

This was his post on his matter at the time. What point are you getting at right now, Bingle?

I’m trying to pull him out of a tunnel, because saying “Hectic is scum!” over and over isn’t helping things fmpov. What are you trying to do?

[Amrun]

What do you feel about just lynching nacho..... the spice is stirring in my soul.

[Amrun]

This was his post on his matter at the time. What point are you getting at right now, Bingle?

I’m trying to pull him out of a tunnel, because saying “Hectic is scum!” over and over isn’t helping things fmpov. What are you trying to do?

Sort you. I’m liking your recent posts because everything hates me.

[Bingle]

while it can be argued I’m scum with pretty much anyone except Amrun fairly convincingly because of the low impact of my slot.

FTFM

[Bingle]

This was his post on his matter at the time. What point are you getting at right now, Bingle?

I’m trying to pull him out of a tunnel, because saying “Hectic is scum!” over and over isn’t helping things fmpov. What are you trying to do?

Sort you. I’m liking your recent posts because everything hates me.

If it helps I don’t think you have to. I don’t think I make it through 3v2 if we play this smart.

I am feeling significantly better about you today though.

[Bingle]

@Nacho can you rebut your earlier towncase and give me a viable not me Fark partner suggestion?

WHY FAKRAN IS FRIEND:

1)

In Fakran's opening, I really like how he was fairly scattered and combative and took a number of shots to the wall that obviously weren't popular - in particular, I liked how he went from calling Amrun his strongest townread to immediately attacking her two posts down the road (and thought that him getting concerned about her interacting with her top scumread was a reasonable line of inquiry and demonstrates him handling a bunch of different possibilities all at once). It's possible for scum to come out swinging on all cylinders in the way that he did here, but it's a remarkably risky move to take close to deadline since he's basically taken a swing at everyone who's anyone all at once - the level of conviction that resulted in "even a lynch on me is better than sparing!" is remarkably ballsy without solid theory to stand behind.

I like this post wrt Amrun from Farkran, and have based pieces of my read on Replica based on this reasoning exactly. If Farkran is scum I'm not sure he offers a townread like that which is so hard to back away from.

I think that this post is also a really weird and emotionally manipulative one if Farkran is scum here. Farkran has his feelings hurt a bit by Suji calling him "detrimental to town or a strong Mafia leader", and uses that as leverage to jab back and say that Suji wasn't acting like themselves.

It's also crazy hard for me to see something like this meta engagement bit and then launching into Replica being near certain because he spoke about the danger of people sheeping his vote and wagons creating coming from scum in a million billion years - again, that's sticking your neck way way out for absolutely no reason if scum - which of course comes in the middle of a bunch of Farkran prodding at various groups moving together (Hectic spare being equal to Farkran fight, etc) - there's just a lot of shit going on here if Farkran is scum - a ton of effort put into "showing progressions and showing that he's willing to push reads" but not a lot of effort into an actual scum agenda.

Loved the salty response here - that shit was pure.

Farkran coming out with guns ablazing against you/Replica/Hectic here makes no fucking sense if Farkran is scum here; there's definitely diminishing returns associated with being townread for being crazy in this setup (not likely to get spared if you go too far off the ranch). And I can go on if you'd like but the whole read is along the same lines - Fakran is extraordinarily genuine and taking a very very absurd track if scum, Fakran also has pretty excellent progressions on reads if scum and also tends to run through a large # of possible scum worlds all at once that surface now and again in his ISO. Fakran is almost certainly town.

[Farkran]

This was his post on his matter at the time. What point are you getting at right now, Bingle?

I’m trying to pull him out of a tunnel, because saying “Hectic is scum!” over and over isn’t helping things fmpov. What are you trying to do?

Why do you assume that i am inside of the tunnel, rather than you? I get that you all think that i am the stubborn one, but please tell me what should i do from my pov. It's not like i didn't try to analyze the town!Hectic world, but i couldn't find any possible scenario where that could be true. I can see how *you* think that i am scum (and therefore i am lying/wrong/etc), but what should *i* do? I am trying to listen and cooperate. I am trying to assume i could be wrong, but this is my situation right now:

Assume town!Hectic

1) The only slot that could make sense coupled with someone who didn't allow hectic spare was lynched yesterday and flipped town. Chemist/Amrun, Chemist/Bingle teams were a possibility, not one i would really push as my favorite, but a possibility.
2) Any non-Hectic (and non-Nacho, because he was absent) solve would have powerlynched me d3 with everyone's blessing, don't you agree?
3) Why any non-Hectic team would risk sparing Hectic in d2? Let's also assume that scum was looking for towncred, therefore town!Hectic spare was allowed by at least one scum member if not two (looking at Nacho/Chara in this case, because Psyche and Replica flipped town). People who did NOT spare Hectic in d2 were: Farkran, Chemist, Amrun, Bingle (1642). I specifically offered myself as a lynch in d2, where it would matter the most, to see who would pick it up. But everyone chose to spare Hectic instead. Why?

Tell me why i should not believe that Hectic is scum, and how could anyone imagine a world where Farkran is town and Hectic is NOT scum. I am

not fine

with my lynch

today

, but is it the only way for you to understand my point?

If you want to sort living/unspared people, the best lynches are always Fark or Nacho. If you want the most efficient lynch for hitting scum, lynch Nacho. Of course if i am scum i would be lying, but if i am town i don't see much room for error here.

[Bingle]

I’m not saying that Hectic isn’t scum. I’m saying sorting with the foregone conclusion that he is is counterproductive.

FMPOV, you’re completely ignoring cases like nacho/Chara Chara/Amrun and me/anyone. While I don’t particularly benefit from the third, I could use additional insight on the others.

Pretend, for an IRL day, that Hectic is flipped town. What does that mean for your solve? You’ve talked at length about Hectic scum and I engaged with that, even if we did ultimately reach different conclusions. The least you can do is share your thoughts on the rest of the players individually.

[Bingle]

And, FWIW, tunneled doesn’t necessarily mean wrong. It means tunneled.

[Farkran]

@Nacho can you rebut your earlier towncase and give me a viable not me Fark partner suggestion?

WHY FAKRAN IS FRIEND:

1)

In Fakran's opening, I really like how he was fairly scattered and combative and took a number of shots to the wall that obviously weren't popular - in particular, I liked how he went from calling Amrun his strongest townread to immediately attacking her two posts down the road (and thought that him getting concerned about her interacting with her top scumread was a reasonable line of inquiry and demonstrates him handling a bunch of different possibilities all at once). It's possible for scum to come out swinging on all cylinders in the way that he did here, but it's a remarkably risky move to take close to deadline since he's basically taken a swing at everyone who's anyone all at once - the level of conviction that resulted in "even a lynch on me is better than sparing!" is remarkably ballsy without solid theory to stand behind.

I like this post wrt Amrun from Farkran, and have based pieces of my read on Replica based on this reasoning exactly. If Farkran is scum I'm not sure he offers a townread like that which is so hard to back away from.

I think that this post is also a really weird and emotionally manipulative one if Farkran is scum here. Farkran has his feelings hurt a bit by Suji calling him "detrimental to town or a strong Mafia leader", and uses that as leverage to jab back and say that Suji wasn't acting like themselves.

It's also crazy hard for me to see something like this meta engagement bit and then launching into Replica being near certain because he spoke about the danger of people sheeping his vote and wagons creating coming from scum in a million billion years - again, that's sticking your neck way way out for absolutely no reason if scum - which of course comes in the middle of a bunch of Farkran prodding at various groups moving together (Hectic spare being equal to Farkran fight, etc) - there's just a lot of shit going on here if Farkran is scum - a ton of effort put into "showing progressions and showing that he's willing to push reads" but not a lot of effort into an actual scum agenda.

Loved the salty response here - that shit was pure.

Farkran coming out with guns ablazing against you/Replica/Hectic here makes no fucking sense if Farkran is scum here; there's definitely diminishing returns associated with being townread for being crazy in this setup (not likely to get spared if you go too far off the ranch). And I can go on if you'd like but the whole read is along the same lines - Fakran is extraordinarily genuine and taking a very very absurd track if scum, Fakran also has pretty excellent progressions on reads if scum and also tends to run through a large # of possible scum worlds all at once that surface now and again in his ISO. Fakran is almost certainly town.

Add this to:

Spoiler: d2 to d3 nacho

i'm not really great about the game today as opposed to yesterday.
yesterday was sunshine and roses. today is not.

i'm frustrated that i'm still thinking about farkran at this point. i'm fine leaving maybe one or two people in the CANNOT READ bin but i didn't expect him to be one of them. i think there's a lot to point to farkran being town but then there's also the fact that the man cannot make a scum case or town case on anyone without assuming their alignment or tying it back to the HECTIC IS SCUM theory.

and i really don't understand his approach here if scum.

but i still don't trust him completely.

i'm not really great about the game today as opposed to yesterday.
yesterday was sunshine and roses. today is not.

Why? What happened that shaked your worldview that much? Psyche, one of your Tier 1 townreads, has died. Who would you have expected to die? Why are you suddenly having trouble finding scum in this gamestate, when only two of your highest townreads have been removed?

It's like you have a crush on a girl but you're a bit shy, you know? When you're a little removed and just thinking about it you're focused on the possibility of how wonderful things will be if she says yes and you start a relationship together but then you actually are talking and you're nervous taking the plunge and all of the things you have to say go out the window. It's kind of like that.

Like, i feel that you are trying to adjust your reads to be more and more convenient to your survival, ever since i have been suggesting to lynch you. What have i done that makes me look scummier than yesterday, except moving my vote to you? You know i have been scumleaning you for reasons similar to why i am scumreading Chara, this is not news.

Yesterday, you were considering joining the Bingle fight wagon, but you didn't get the chance to produce content about it because Hectic quickspared himself. Why didn't you consider a Farkran/Bingle solve yesterday? Or Farkran/Chemist? Or Farkran/Amrun? Are you considering any of those today?

If I cared all that much about my survival it's doubtful that I spent time the places that I did. If I was posturing to lynch you it's doubtful I spend all the time I did all day yesterday calling you town and listing all the reasons you could possibly be town. I'm just in an angsty mood so I'll probably doubt you a bunch publicly but I probably won't stab you in the back later today?

I didn't consider a bunch of Farkran/anyone yesterday because I didn't think you were scum. I'll probably try to look into some of those today because I think the "possible teams" lens will prove to be a useful one.

Nacho entered the day posturing against me.

I've continually said that I'm not scumreading you. Why do you keep saying that I am posturing against you?

Actually no I don't want nor need an answer. I'm not scumreading you. Stop acting like I am.

Actually no I don't want nor need an answer. I'm not scumreading you. Stop acting like I am.

This kinda makes it seem like you’re scumreading him though, just saying.

Being annoyed at someone because I feel I'm repeating myself =\= scumreading

OK.

HURT: Farkran

I'll be flying out shortly which means that I'll spend my time catching up some time tomorrow - I see that I don't have a whole lot of catching up to do. I still don't think Hectic was scum and I can't see two scum in Amrun/Chara/Bingle so here we are!

Nacho has a huge shift in reads from d2 to d3, when the only relevant element that changed was psyche's death. I didn't like his initial posturing during d3. It pinged me the wrong way ever since the first time i saw it, but it... kinda made sense, i mean, it's not wrong to re-evaluate your reads once you get later in the game. Reread stuff, ask stuff. If you want to base your resolution on a non-flipping route, it's the correct thing to do. But why me specifically instead of... pretty much anyone else? Is that because i was the easiest, most ambiguous read to fake a reconsideration on? Moreover, why ONLY me? I understand that irl issues can get in the way of your play, but he had promised a lot of content -before- going away, and only came back with a Farkran hurt vote after another of my plausible partners had flipped town. Who do i consider as my top scumread right now, in your opinion?

pedit: sure, i'll get back to you in a minute. I feel like i have already explained my reasons several times here though, so if you have any specific questions about what i am potentially missing from my solve, please go ahead and ask. When i say "assume town!Hectic", that's... pretty much what you asked me to, it's like if somehow Hectic has already been flipped or pops came here slipping Hectic's rolepm

[Farkran]

I’m not saying that Hectic isn’t scum. I’m saying sorting with the foregone conclusion that he is is counterproductive.

FMPOV, you’re completely ignoring cases like nacho/Chara Chara/Amrun and me/anyone. While I don’t particularly benefit from the third, I could use additional insight on the others.

Pretend, for an IRL day, that Hectic is flipped town. What does that mean for your solve? You’ve talked at length about Hectic scum and I engaged with that, even if we did ultimately reach different conclusions. The least you can do is share your thoughts on the rest of the players individually.

Nacho/Chara

This is maybe the most plausible team outside of a scum!Hectic world, but this implies a few weird things that happened earlier. First of all, both of them pushed Hectic as a spare when they had the option of pushing a lynch on Bingle or Farkran in d2. Let's say they did this for the towncred, because we know Hectic is town so there's not much to discuss about it. They killed Psyche though, instead of Farkran/Amrun who were pushing stronger for a fight route. This, to me, means they were more inclined to pursue a lynch in d3, and they needed to avoid a lynch on themselves at all costs. I opened the day voting Chara, Nacho scumreaded me in return. Until here, makes sense. Amrun and Replica voted me though, which means Chara would only need to push me a tiny bit to make me fall... except that it would mean convincing Bingle to join them, since Nacho (absent) wouldn't help. So Chara tries Chemist to Chemist instead, who was already voted by Bingle, hoping that me and Amrun would finish him?

This makes some sense, i guess, if we concede that this team allowed a Hectic spare instead of pushing for a mislynch during d2. It wouldn't have been hard, imo. But yeah, it could make sense.

Chara/Amrun

Pretty much the same reasoning as the above... but wouldn't explain Nacho's immotivate reconsideration of my slot in d3. It's

possible

, i guess, but it's my worst tentative solve among those that are possible. Although that Psyche kill... OR, this team could kill Psyche earlier and leave Hectic+Sherlock alive, knowing that only one of them would have been spared and the other would be the n2 kill, they shouldn't care which was which. Actually, Sherlock spare would have been maybe even better than Hectic for towncred generation?

Uhm... actually... it would ALSO make sense for scum!Nacho to kill Sherlock first instead of Psyche, i guess, whereas for this team Psyche should have definitely have been killed first and Sherlock/Hectic later?

Also wouldn't this team just powerlynch Nacho right now?

Bingle/Any

Almidia/Bingle could achieve my lynch so many times that i just do not believe it. The only plausible team is Farkran/Bingle (which makes sense from town!Amrun pov), but eh.

[Farkran]

So Chara tries Chemist

to Chemist

instead

Too many chemists in that sentence

[Chara]

Bingle greenflip doesn't pseudoclear Farkran for me because i can see a world where Amrun/Farkran is a thing. in fact the only team i think i'm comfortable not considering outright is Bingle/Amrun, and then i worry about doing so with 100% certainty.

i don't think Farkran being a plausible partner to a lot of players is a reason against lynching him, if that was indeed the argument Bingle was making. his townflip would also make me look at Nacho next as most likely scum so i don't think a greenflip is low info at all.

actually given that a Nacho lynch is pretty much the same situation in reverse.

reading 2140 i actually do agree with the logic here, it sounds right to my memory, though i have no idea how Farkran (or Bingle for that matter) manages to keep this straight in his head.

but Bingle's right about yesterday being the best scenario for partner examination.

Bingle/Amrun is least likely as a team to me followed by Farkran/Nacho. i could see the latter as a team but it'd mean a really weird strategy from Nacho.

[Amrun]

You know what would be funny?

Farkran/Hectic. Lol

[Chara]

2) Any non-Hectic (and non-Nacho, because he was absent) solve would have powerlynched me d3 with everyone's blessing, don't you agree?

assuming you're correct given it lines up with what i remember, from a town! you pov i do understand where you get this from. i really didn't like any of your arguments for Hectic scum themself.

but from a town Hectic pov is does make me think the reason you haven't been lynched yet is because you're scum. though Bingle makes a good point about day 2 and you being townread by Psyche/Chemist/Nacho, so i don't think the narrative that you've always been easy to lynch is correct.

i know Amrun has gotten some scumreads but i don't remember her ever being seriously considered for a lynch. that might also be because i remember my reads better than others' and she's always been a townread. and i was pushing for a spare for most of the game to begin with.

i really really hesitate to say this

now

with hindsight but the lack of lynch -> flips looking back hurts. i don't know if we'd be better off today having spared Replica given i would still be scumreading Chemist. i also don't consider sparing Sujimichi or Hectic a mistake, so.

[Chara]

Amrun/Nacho?

i don't think Nacho has any significant associations with the living playerlist as a whole besides Farkran. similar to Bingle but the besides is Amrun. and these are reverse associations now that i think about it.

is saying "these players aren't a team" the townhunting equivalent of teamhunting?

[Chara]

Amrun/Nacho where Amrun is humming over a Nacho lynch doesn't exactly seem likely either, though then you can say the same thing about Amrun/Farkran. and that's without considering that distancing is obviously a thing so i shouldn't be reading into the offhand comments Amrun has just made as much as her big pushes throughout the game.

or i could just trust my toneread on her and be done with it.

in a vacuum i think Nacho and Farkran still have the best likelihood of being scum according to my reads. that Amrun has managed to stay a TR for this long while i've ended up reexamining her throughout the game counts for something for me. falling to lategame paranoia is a shitty way to go out. i wouldn't lynch her before whoever her partner is either so it's all moot.

all of that only to go back to Nacho or Farkran being the only lynches i'm considering today. it'd be nice if they were scum together, but a lot of things would be nice.

[Chara]

Amrun: what are your reads independent of team analysis?

[Chara]

Chara have you read Farkran's other town games at all whether by skim or by something else?

i meant to ask, did you get anything meaningful out of reading them?

[Chara]

looking again at Nacho's reasoning for eliminating teams in Bingle/Amrun/Chara i feel like the only one with a lot of strength is Bingle/Amrun. it seems like an easy way to vote Farkran.

Farkran/Nacho is actually probably as unlikely as Amrun/Bingle, not less. taking into account the whole game.