Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps [Game over!]

[Auro]

Yes, I believe I pulled up some posts of hers today and said they appeared like legitimate solving thought and not "surfacey", no?

[acryon]

Yes, I believe I pulled up some posts of hers today and said they appeared like legitimate solving thought and not "surfacey", no?

Sorry you're right. I slotted those in my mind as comparisons to BB as opposed to specifically Eve defense, but obviously they are.

Then I'd like to hear from the others.

[Atarashi Hajimari]

In post 212, acryon wrote:
In post 163, GuiltyLion wrote:
If [acryon] himself can see that his post didn't look like scumhunting then he needs to give more explanation as to whether and/or why he finds me suspicious for calling that out.

1. I'm really not a fan of people making analogies like this that are (self-admittedly, and correctly admitted) bad without elaborating as to why it's an accurate analogy almost immediately after. It's a cheap distracting tactic from back in my high school debate days.

2. But to revisit the analogy anyway since other people seem to have liked it - we're ~1500 posts beyond the planting of this proverbial garden. Ask yourselves this question: what's come of this proposed scumhunting of Acryon's that pinged so many of you? The veggies have grown, ripened, and rotted back down to compost and literally nothing has come from it. Unless it's 'still growing', in which case GL's argument of acryon planting 'rocks instead of seeds' seems pretty likely.

Hey acryon, before you go criticizing eve's scumhunting why dont you respond to this part of my original casing against you where I question if your scumhunting is genuine?

Again, I'm not sure what I'm responding to here? You think my analogy was not only bad (won't argue with you there), but disingenuous (don't agree obviously). Then you poised a question to the rest of the town, not me. So not sure what I'm responding to there either?

...it really shouldn't be that hard to grasp and the question at the end was initially more rhetorical than to "everyone but you", but since you seem to be oblivious to it I'll be more direct:

You were accused of fake scumhunting with a lot of your earlier questioning. You said it was "the start of something" or a basis from which scumhunting can develop. A simple re-reading of the thread shows that literally nothing developed off of your questioning in the ~2000 posts since then, invalidating your initial defense. Do you agree with this assessment? If not, what information/ leads, if any, developed off of your early game questioning?

[GuiltyLion]

6 hours, I am here, reading up

[GuiltyLion]

Controversial opinion, I actually think skitter looks way worse on a Titus townflip than on a Titus scumflip. If she's scum with Titus she's basically betting the game on being able to deflect the vote away from Titus, but her reasoning is vague and she isn't pushing a counterwagon. That is much more of a whiteknighting archetype than a partner defending one.

Actually the more I think about the more I feel like skitter/Titus isn't a viable team. I'll have to talk to lilith about this because I think that's her solve atm.

yeah this is what I was trying to say earlier as well, I think scum!skitter paired with scum!Rex is a little more cautious/careful about defending him when the thread starts looking in his direction

[acryon]

...it really shouldn't be that hard to grasp and the question at the end was initially more rhetorical than to "everyone but you", but since you seem to be oblivious to it I'll be more direct:

You were accused of fake scumhunting with a lot of your earlier questioning. You said it was "the start of something" or a basis from which scumhunting can develop. A simple re-reading of the thread shows that literally nothing developed off of your questioning in the ~2000 posts since then, invalidating your initial defense. Do you agree with this assessment? If not, what information/ leads, if any, developed off of your early game questioning?

Getting a little abrasive here, but I'll continue to assume you're acting in good faith and attribute that to your lack of sunlight having found yourself down such a dark tunnel.

Unlike scum, I do not have a plan for exactly how the game will play out. Things change as my reads develop. The only point of my analogy was to say that early game for me (and most) is just about asking questions to start to build to things and that it's silly in my opinion to be critical of that early process. I actually think I've been fairly clear (clearer than most) on a lot of my reads and what's driven them and how they have developed.

I absolutely don't agree with your assessment, because it feels like you're playing dumb about the idea that scumhunting might look different on post 200 vs. post 2000. The game develops, players develop, reads develop (reads that I've shared mind you).

[Auro]

His question was: Can you pick examples of some early game questions of yours, and show us how the responses to those helped progress your reads?

[Atarashi Hajimari]

The only point of my analogy was to say that early game for me (and most) is just about asking questions

to start to build to things

and that it's silly in my opinion to be critical of that early process.

...thank you for restating the basis of my question. Yes, I am getting a little abrasive, because you've been artfully dodging answering this question for almost 400 posts now.

Going off of the italics, what specifically, if anything, was built off of your early questioning?

[Atarashi Hajimari]

His question was: Can you pick examples of some early game questions of yours, and show us how the responses to those helped progress your reads?

This.

[GuiltyLion]

Votecount 2.8

Target	Wagon
acryon (3)	Atarashi Hajimari (1660), Auro (1929), Eve (1956)
Titus (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1635), BBmolla (1903)
Eve (2)	acryon (1978), Titus (1979)
Not Voting (2)	GuiltyLion (1780), skitter30 (1877)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-14 17:47:59).

This is a crucial VC that I feel will help with some flips after today

I spent some time trying to figure out how I currently feel about it but I think there's a bit too many assumptions for me to get a solve from it

but I do think both acryon/Titus voting Eve as their counterwagon makes Eve the wrong lynch today even if one of those slots is town

and in terms of "where are my townreads voting", it makes Titus feel like the best lynch here.

my current reads are like

super town - {Limit, Molla, Atari}
prob town, enough to not want today but reconsider at LYLO tier - {Skit, Auro}
meh - {Eve, Acryon, Titus}

which is both convenient and horribly inconvenient that this VC is the way that it is with me feeling ambivalent about all three wagons

[GuiltyLion]

acryon is probably town.

why is acryon probably town on a Titus scum flip?

I'm not trying to disagree with you I just don't have a clear idea why off the top of my head

[Auro]

How is Skitter prob town again, please summarize reasons
Sorry I'm asking too many times, but easier to disband them this way

[Auro]

why is acryon probably town on a Titus scum flip?

Crayon was on the Titus wagon, and acted to vote Eve after I unvoted Titus and voted him.

[GuiltyLion]

He doesn't have any solid reads, but his posting before that seemed to indicate confidence in certain reasoning. I disagree with his evaluations on various slots including myself, Eve, Molla (I townread Molla for other reasons, but I have a problem with his evaluation of things). The whole "Auro/GL isn't TvT, I don't know where, I guess Auro" seems fake. I've had MUCH more to my play yesterday than the copbloc thing: that play doesn't purely revolve around mechanics, it means I actually have to identify town and scum candidates before I dictate it, which I was actively doing - so dismissing all of that play because the cop's dead feels disingenuous. When I made a U-Turn on Titus, suddenly Eve got voted by both Skitter and Acryon, and their reasoning for Eve!scum would apply earlier too: where was that when Titus was being pushed? I feel like Titus is town, and Skitter/Crayon were both just lulling around thinking that lynch would go through; when I disbanded that, suddenly both of them think I'm second likeliest scum, and both Eve. A little fishy, no?

I like this post a lot

Acryon also tried to discredit my "Auro-GL cannot be a team" logic by invalidating the entire concept of self-meta, rather than looking critically at my point that if we are the team we engaged in the most labored, obnoxious, thread spammy theater for hundreds of posts on D1 which I simply basically never do as scum

[acryon]

I personally think its ridiculous to ask me to spend my time doing what you're asking when, in my opinion, I worked out a lot of that in the thread, but I'll humor you.

Let's go back to the original that started all of this.

There were two question in the post in question:

I thought you weren't gonna RVS?

-Smart

I have the feeling this isn't random.
Just a feeling.

Is it actually just a feeling?

When we're pretty firmly in RVS, saying someone thinks a post "isn't random" is saying a lot. For nom to make such a claim, there needed to be some more information. This one nom never answered, so I followed up in 109.

I actually explained how my thoughts on this progressed pretty clearly in 111. This interaction at least showed me that nom had a history with skitter so there was likely a lot of personal experience that led her to feel that way. Ultimately I didn't glean a ton about alignment at the time, although I think I came back to this a bit later on.

I’d like to hear your thoughts on nom too.

I don't like the 2 naked votes then a "pagetop"

I would like to see them get more involved in the game

Literally just completed page 1 and you had an issue with someone's involvement in the game already?

This one karnage responded with a throwaway "uhh yeah" which caused me to follow up with:

Literally just completed page 1 and you had an issue with someone's involvement in the game already?

uhh... yeah

Since it sounds like you have experience with her, do those early posts ping you for meta reasons?

Which he responded to with "Nope. I'm terrible with meta so I generally disregard it"

The first question came from it seeming odd to have an issue with someone's involvement

that

early in the game. My goal in asking was to try to gauge whether he really believed that (and why) or if he was just shading. His curt response and then the double-down on it felt genuine to me. Scum at that point I might expect to try to come up with a more nuanced explanation for why certain people as scum are less active early on, etc.

[acryon]

He doesn't have any solid reads, but his posting before that seemed to indicate confidence in certain reasoning. I disagree with his evaluations on various slots including myself, Eve, Molla (I townread Molla for other reasons, but I have a problem with his evaluation of things). The whole "Auro/GL isn't TvT, I don't know where, I guess Auro" seems fake. I've had MUCH more to my play yesterday than the copbloc thing: that play doesn't purely revolve around mechanics, it means I actually have to identify town and scum candidates before I dictate it, which I was actively doing - so dismissing all of that play because the cop's dead feels disingenuous. When I made a U-Turn on Titus, suddenly Eve got voted by both Skitter and Acryon, and their reasoning for Eve!scum would apply earlier too: where was that when Titus was being pushed? I feel like Titus is town, and Skitter/Crayon were both just lulling around thinking that lynch would go through; when I disbanded that, suddenly both of them think I'm second likeliest scum, and both Eve. A little fishy, no?

I like this post a lot

Acryon also tried to discredit my "Auro-GL cannot be a team" logic by invalidating the entire concept of self-meta, rather than looking critically at my point that if we are the team we engaged in the most labored, obnoxious, thread spammy theater for hundreds of posts on D1 which I simply basically never do as scum

I'm sorry but I've seen thread spammy theater before. I'm glad you supposedly don't engage in that as scum, but even then there's a first time for everything isn't there? That's why I had a problem with that kind of defense--it just doesn't mean anything.

[acryon]

why is acryon probably town on a Titus scum flip?

Crayon was on the Titus wagon, and acted to vote Eve after I unvoted Titus and voted him.

I voted Eve after GL reminded me I have zero reason to not be voting her.

[Auro]

we are the team we engaged in the most labored, obnoxious, thread spammy theater for hundreds of posts on D1 which I simply basically never do as scum

Well to be fair I'm always up for some spicy SvS theater as scum

[acryon]

we are the team we engaged in the most labored, obnoxious, thread spammy theater for hundreds of posts on D1 which I simply basically never do as scum

Well to be fair I'm always up for some spicy SvS theater as scum

Red-handed.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: acryon

I think this is the best lynch.

I have a work meeting in a few min so I'll be back in a little bit, but when it comes down to it I feel Acryon's posts are a really good emulation/performance of what reasoning and solving is supposed to look like, rather than a holistic attempt to actually solve. The way his Eve scum read disappeared for most of D2 when thread attention was elsewhere and then came back at deadline in time to counter to Titus/his own wagon feels more convenient than a genuine belief in scum!Eve he's had.

[acryon]

Eve made it out of D1 despite significant heat so we could focus on a townie and the cop. She's done nothing to show she's pro-town since then.

Again, I mostly ignored her I think because she was just so absent. Not great, but out of sight out of mind I think.

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

why is acryon probably town on a Titus scum flip?

Because acryon is probably town, full stop. His play has been dynamic and snarky, and he's made a lot of enemies and poked at a lot of different things rather than pushing any consistent agenda or trying to fly under the radar.

Lilith disagrees with me but at the very least I feel like he's not a good wagon today.

And acryon to answer your question about Eve I don't really townread her and wouldn't object to joining her wagon if it came to that.

-Smart

[Auro]

Smart, you should really check out an Acryon scum game.
I would say he was sorta under the radar while everyone townread him

[GuiltyLion]

I'm sorry but I've seen thread spammy theater before. I'm glad you supposedly don't engage in that as scum, but even then there's a first time for everything isn't there? That's why I had a problem with that kind of defense--it just doesn't mean anything.

On this, this is one of those Bayesian things where I think town should be looking at what is

likely

not what is

possible

is it

possible

that Auro and I are a team and we decided to play D1 by arguing with each other in circles over whether and why I townread Eve, why I scumread Allo, why I townread Skitter, etc etc etc ad nauseum? Is it

possible

that I decided to fake getting progressively more and more frustrated at his endless series of "but why" questions, questions about reads that ultimately don't matter at all in securing a D1 mislynch on anyone but us? Sure, anything's possible.

But is it

likely

? Given that the odds of Auro/GL being the exact solve in a vacuum, is already very low? Given that my meta and history as a player consistently shows a lack of ability/willingness/effort to wall and tryhard so much on D1 when it's not needed? Given that neither of us were especially suspected slots on D1 in danger of lynch, and there was a wealth of slots (Karnage, Eve, Molla, Allo, Rex) barely posting half as much content combined?

[northsidegal]

-