Micro 940: A Normal Blitz II - Game Over

[HoldenGolden]

I haven't had time to remake my VCA post (power went out last night causing me to lose it. Should really start using save draft feature instead). Will do so when I got more time tk sjt down and formally write it out.

Tldr really comes down to Hiraki's alignment since it either implies mafia has two town wagons and would be able to spread out their votes or if he is scum, the aligning of scum reads during the time the George wagon came back to domaince in the wagon is likely to be someone trying to aid scumhiraki.

I'll explain more when I make the post

[shiki]

9: Hoctac retracted the claim but suggested what we actually did, saying either one of us would get shot instead of a real PR or else one of us was scum
10-11: I went along with it and specified "you just lolclaim and I'll come in and get pissy about it"

i would like to know the timing between 9 and 10 and wish hoctac were here to confirm. additionally 9 seems like a good reason for you to kill hoctac. otherwise, hoctac wakes up tells us the two of you were lying and voices his suspicion of you.

Shiki, who would you have voted to lynch yesterday?

if you are asking which of georgebailey and hiraki i would have hammered had my vote been the decider, the answer is hiraki. if you are asking who i thought was the scummiest out of everyone, the answer is umlaut.

The more that I think about it, the more I think gambit comes from town Umlaut. I think mafia would have been resistant to Hectic's plan, considering the backlash.

i would have agreed to the gambit regardless of my alignment and i find it very likely you would have as well. if your argument is specifically that town!umlaut would have participated in the gambit and that scum!umlaut would not have, i would like to know what that is based on.

like whether a Hiraki+HEM team is even possible (because if it's not I might even want to vote shiki as the PoE-d second scum with either one of them)

'shiki is scum because the two people who have been scumreading eachother all game are unlikely to be aligned' does not feel like a real thought process.

Soft defense.

this would be more accurately described as me giving a nullread and voicing suspicion of those scumreading.

More of a refusal to give a read than a read per se.

this one is more of a nullread than a refusal to give a read. what i meant by the disparate places is that i thought the differences between my and hiraki's read were noteworthy but not something that could be resolved logically. another example of that this game would be the differences between my read on datisi (town indicative emotional response) and hoctac's (scummy vote, scummy hammer).

[Micc]

Votecount 2.04

Hiraki (2) -

Madoka, humaneatingmonkey

Umlaut (1) -

shiki

humaneatingmonkey (1) -

Hiraki

Not Voting (3) -

Datisi, HoldenGolden, Umlaut

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2020-05-21 11:30:00).

[Madoka]

i would have agreed to the gambit regardless of my alignment and i find it very likely you would have as well. if your argument is specifically that town!umlaut would have participated in the gambit and that scum!umlaut would not have, i would like to know what that is based on.

I would have initially, and then outed once Madoka requested that I tell the truth. That would have been optimal as it would have likely given me town points from both the town and my neighbor. Also, do you not think scum would be weary of continuing the claim after town stated they would lynch them if it came out later that they were lying?

[Umlaut]

Looking forward to the VCA.

9: Hoctac retracted the claim but suggested what we actually did, saying either one of us would get shot instead of a real PR or else one of us was scum
10-11: I went along with it and specified "you just lolclaim and I'll come in and get pissy about it"

i would like to know the timing between 9 and 10 and wish hoctac were here to confirm. additionally 9 seems like a good reason for you to kill hoctac. otherwise, hoctac wakes up tells us the two of you were lying and voices his suspicion of you.

Why do you believe I'm scum but also believe what I'm telling you about the PT is in any way true?

(but those posts were about six minutes apart, to answer your question)

The more that I think about it, the more I think gambit comes from town Umlaut. I think mafia would have been resistant to Hectic's plan, considering the backlash.

i would have agreed to the gambit regardless of my alignment and i find it very likely you would have as well. if your argument is specifically that town!umlaut would have participated in the gambit and that scum!umlaut would not have, i would like to know what that is based on.

Though I know my self-read is worthless here, as scum I'd be more hesitant to so visibly go against my record of not lying as town, as opposed to explicitly calling out that record to back up my claim knowing full well I'm going to be revealed as having lied the next day. I'm not going to say I

absolutely wouldn't

do that because there's nothing I wouldn't do as scum if I thought it would win the game, but I don't imagine I would trust it to work.

like whether a Hiraki+HEM team is even possible (because if it's not I might even want to vote shiki as the PoE-d second scum with either one of them)

'shiki is scum because the two people who have been scumreading eachother all game are unlikely to be aligned' does not feel like a real thought process.

It is a real thought process. What seems unreal about it? If I'm town and Madoka is town and HEM+Hiraki isn't the team, then you have to be scum.

Soft defense.

this would be more accurately described as me giving a nullread and voicing suspicion of those scumreading.

More of a refusal to give a read than a read per se.

this one is more of a nullread than a refusal to give a read. what i meant by the disparate places is that i thought the differences between my and hiraki's read were noteworthy but not something that could be resolved logically. another example of that this game would be the differences between my read on datisi (town indicative emotional response) and hoctac's (scummy vote, scummy hammer).

Would you say you still have Hiraki at null today, then? I mean, I get you think Madoka and I are scum, but looking at just Hiraki himself what do you think?

[Umlaut]

Tried to put together a "shiki on HEM" quote post and only found one quote.

Shiki is HEM town?

i am townleaning monkey. he didn't give a really forced scumread on an rvs vote the way he did in both the last blitz game and newbie 1996 and i don't think mafia would be so eager to celebrate a recent scum victory. he also seems less mechanical (for lack of a better word) here than last time.

shiki townleaned HEM yesterday, and this ISO dive is less interesting than I was planning for it to be.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I see Hiraki's got a love letters for me

[humaneatingmonkey]

Yesterday
you vocally disbelieved the mason claim, and
you said (and maintained today) that if mason claim was a lie then at least one of the claimants was scum.
It seems reasonable to conclude that yesterday you thought I was probably scum. Is this correct? I am going somewhere with this but I'd like you to give a definite answer to this before I continue.

I felt like the mason claim is a puppet show, yes.
I believe if it's a mason claim, and one flips town-aligned after the mason claim, that it's likely the other is scum. Yes.
Yesterday, I didn't immediately conclude that you were probably scum. Just that if it's a fakeclaim, one would be scum.

[humaneatingmonkey]

the facts according to HEM:

1) George is not a bad lynch.
2) George needed intent to hammer before lynching.
3) George was hammered on with someone who did not claim intent which is okay
4) HEM was not able to hammer George before he was aware that George was L-1

the facts according to the thread:

1) George is still not a bad lynch.

2) George did not need intent to hammer before lynching.

3) George was hammered on with someone who did not claim intent which is okay

4) HEM did not hammer George because he was apprehensive about the situation

This is just facts according to Hiraki.

You're getting ridiculous.

I didn't get off your wagon immediately after it went down to two votes because I was hoping Madoka would join the wagon. I was waiting for her catch-up. It's just that soon after her catch up, Datisi hammers George and I didn't know he was L-1 because there wasn't a VC.

You're not even interested in translating events accurately, are you?

[humaneatingmonkey]

If everyone's read predicated on Hiraki's alignment, just join me in lynching him. It's gonna flip scum.

[HoldenGolden]

I'm here. Working away.

Got some spicy takes coming in.

[shiki]

I would have initially, and then outed once Madoka requested that I tell the truth. That would have been optimal as it would have likely given me town points from both the town and my neighbor. Also, do you not think scum would be weary of continuing the claim after town stated they would lynch them if it came out later that they were lying?

i think mafia would be likely to overcommit to the gambit if they went along with it in the first place. i do not think it would be optimal to abandon the gambit for 'town points' because it defeats the purpose of having done so in the first place. if you follow through with the plan as scum it is in theory towny because it shows that you were doing so for a reason.

Why do you believe I'm scum but also believe what I'm telling you about the PT is in any way true?

i do not think you would create an entire neighbourhood from scratch as opposed to simply summarizing the posts and editing them to fit what you wanted to convey better, especially since hoctac isn't here to confirm anything you say, as i previously mentioned.

It is a real thought process. What seems unreal about it? If I'm town and Madoka is town and HEM+Hiraki isn't the team, then you have to be scum.

it assumes madoka is town and at the same time does not assume that monkey and hiraki are not scum partners but rather something you'd like to look into in order to discover that they are unlikely to be partnered. like it's a plotted near future read instead of a thought process. i think about the day one wagons for twelve seconds and it seems unlikely they are partnered.

Would you say you still have Hiraki at null today, then? I mean, I get you think Madoka and I are scum, but looking at just Hiraki himself what do you think?

individually i'd say i still have hiraki at null. the way he connected madoka and monkey made sense to me and seemed like a reasonable thought process but it worried me that it came very shortly after i said madoka was your most likely partner. due to there being two confirmed town i think it is extra suspicious when people seem to be potentially angling for a compromise lynch. ie since i think madoka is your most likely partner and hiraki thinks madoka is monkey's most likely partner madoka could be a good lynch to both of us, and with the very limited poe that leaves hiraki to push monkey tomorrow. it just seemed like potentially convenient timing. this is further compounded by the fact that i previously observed that madoka and monkey could be connected due to the nature of the hiraki wagon.

Tried to put together a "shiki on HEM" quote post and only found one quote.

this feels willfully inaccurate, especially since your other posts detailing my reads were more inclusive.

In particular, quoting that part from Holden's shitpost to emphasise he's town.

he does seem to really want holden to know that he rolled town this time:

rolled town this time

rolled town this time

I rolled scum on Holden twice in a roll and stomped on the second time lol he never saw it coming

or possibly to celebrate.

@shiki; you think that might be a town-indicative thing? as in, he's actually just really happy to roll town this time

i think it is town indicative because of the way he seemed to be celebrating his past victory. its kinda the inverse of something i felt last time from humaneatingmonkey when it felt like he was trying to get me lynched before getting lynched himself not to win the game but because i had been scumreading him all game.

i am townleaning monkey. he didn't give a really forced scumread on an rvs vote the way he did in both the last blitz game and newbie 1996 and i don't think mafia would be so eager to celebrate a recent scum victory. he also seems less mechanical (for lack of a better word) here than last time.

honestly i think your faith in me is largely misplaced if not manipulative.

it's possible the push on hiraki was coordinated because of this but that seems unlikely to me.

If it has not influenced your read, what was the use?

it has influenced my read, but it certainly isn't the only factor. it has also influenced my read of monkey.

[HoldenGolden]

Holden's predeath VCA
Part I: Dominance in the George Wagon

==================================================================================

A quick disclaimer: I normally like doing VCA's either after two nk's (aka if there is a lot of dead townies) or if there is a flipped scum. It makes VCA much more powerful as it only needs to consider less factors and cuts down on the possibilities of scum's voting patterns. Since one of me/datisi will die tonight, I rather post this now instead of forcing datisi to paraphrase it if I die. Also, while the results of the flip today will implicate VCA, mine and Ulmant's declaration of doing VCA will most likely cause scum to be more aware of where they are voting if they have a choice. I will also be breaking them up to avoid posting the giant walls of text that was my VCA in newbie 1996.

The usual goes for VCA as well. It is a tool; used in conjunction with other analysis to make a read. VCA is not a definitive thing, nor is it impossible for scum to do things on purpose to foil it. I am not a meta know-it-all, but I do know at least one player has the capacity of underminding VCA if he chooses to as scum (cough cough HEM).

Also some terminology:

"Pseudo-voting"

is when someone expresses the willingness to vote somebody without actually voting them. It is important to look at since pressure is the name of the game with bandwagons, and inconsistencies with these pseudo votes and where the actual vote falls can reveal hidden agendas.

Now to get us started.

==================================================================================

I'm going to be starting my VCA at the point where George's wagon broke the abituary even wagon rule town had day 1 and became the dominant wagon. It cuts out a lot of useless analysis such as, well the arbitrary even wagon rule, as well as RVS esk voting. There are content related reasons why people are voting who they are in the VC below, but my focus is on the formation of the mislynch bandwagon and not the evaluation of each reason to vote whom. For reference, the VC at this point was:

Votecount 1.06

GeorgeBailey (3)-

Umlaut, humaneatingmonkey,

Hoctac

Madoka (2) -

GeorgeBailey, Datisi

humaneatingmonkey (1) -

Hiraki

Not Voting (3) -

Madoka,

HoldenGolden,

shiki

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-05-17 18:10:00).

[/color]

*This is prior to the HEM/Hiraki interaction

Some key contextual points:

(1) The Secondary Wagon (Madoka) was fully town driven at this point.

Unfortunately, this dissolves as a consequence of the HEM/Hiraki fight not allowing much AI analysis right now. However, if Madoka flips town this game, that means mafia going into their interaction was in a comfortable spot with two mislynch potentials and most likely are spread out across wagons. If Madoka flips scum, more attention should be placed on slots "hovering" or pseudo-voting both wagons as it is likely the mafia buddy leaving the door open to bussing Madoka (especially since that implies the mafia bought the fake mason claim and would need the extra town cred potentially).

(2) Mafia (regardless of who they are) also knows there is town support on the George wagon at this time as well:

Spoiler:

i kinda don't want to hang mr bailey but my townread on him is dwindling

More important for the conclusion drawn at the end of this section.

(3) Hiraki pseudo-votes George while expressing doubt about the vote; reads promote his attempt to change wagons

This is very important since later Hiraki will cite that his inability to get the HEM wagon rolling despite the fact he seemingly already thought of switching over before the HEM/Hiraki interaction.

Spoiler:

That being said, in general, I do not like how the George wagon is forming. It's starting to feel scumsided based on how everyone just decides to say he's lynchable. On the same side, I still think that he is scummy it's just that the formation of this wagon is weird. Hard to accurately explain. I understand that I'm going to have to move my vote because of the timing of this game but I'm not sure if I want to move it to any of the current wagons at this point (which would be the entire purpose of moving my vote). I still hard TR Holden, now Shiki, and Madoka (recent posting has been very good). That leaves:

Datisi (slight SR but I am with whoever said it's not worth trying to figure out if "masons" are masons on D1)
Umlaut (scarred but generally null for now)
Hoctac (town-lean but still null - too much NAI posting)
GeorgeBailey (scummy)

Besides the wishy-washy stance taken here, it is worth noting that Hiraki

scum reads or null reads

the rest of the voting players. As either alignment, this gives Hiraki the position to get out of voting the george wagon since no actual town reads from his PoV is on them. Yes, he says that hoctac is a town lean. He also says literally right afterwards "but still null". Furthermore, the hard townreads are all on players who have yet to vote. I find this read dynamic in partnership with the VC very interesting as it basically butter up the rest of the players into trying to follow him onto HEM. Normally I would say this is a scummy due to the wishy-washyness and this subtle attempt to influence the thread, but it is pushing votes off the main mislynch wagon so i'll reserve reading into it till analyzing the HEM/Hirkai voting stage.

=====================================================================================

This leaves me with conclusion one:

I do not believe the team of Hiraki/Madoka exists from VCA perspective

Although Hiraki does come in and drops the ability to vote George, his attempts to discredit the two leading wagons and push into HEM is terrible to ensure his partner Madoka survives being the counter wagon. Datisi was already expressing the pseudo-voting to switch to George, and the push onto HEM would of drawn HEM's vote off the main mislynch wagon. While I think the latter is fine for a Hiraki/X scum team, the fact that Madoka was in the counterwagon position makes it more dicey of a stunt for the team Hiraki/Madoka to pull. Not only will Hiraki draw a lot of attention to himself most likely moving him into the wagon game, but it does nothing to to actually fix the Madoka situation favorably. This isn't even considering that Madoka was already starting to get out of the counterwagon via her catchup posts. The only real benefit for this scum team to be pushing HEM specifically to avoid a mafia/town wagon would be taking adventage of george's stronger scum read on HEM at the time, but fighting to get your mislynch to vote off your wagon really isn't worth the push.

Oh and I doubt that Hiraki/HEM is a team too but that's a bit obvious.

Moving into the Hiraki/HEM interaction now.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Oh and I doubt that Hiraki/HEM is a team too but that's a bit obvious.

I hardbussed 3bounty in Newbie 1996, so is it really that obvious?

Just kidding you don't have anything to be worried about.

[HoldenGolden]

Oh and I doubt that Hiraki/HEM is a team too but that's a bit obvious.

I hardbussed 3bounty in Newbie 1996, so is it really that obvious?

Just kidding you don't have anything to be worried about.

Yeah but here you and Hiraki would have to basically agree at a state of the game where two wagons on town has formed with hardly your involvement to start your interaction drawing votes off on them for no real reason.

Is it possible, yea? Is it a worthwhile situation to consider when doing VCA? Not at all lol. If I did that, then VCA reveals that all team pairings are possible so lets all just random vote and see what happens!

[Umlaut]

it assumes madoka is town and at the same time does not assume that monkey and hiraki are not scum partners but rather something you'd like to look into in order to discover that they are unlikely to be partnered. like it's a plotted near future read instead of a thought process. i think about the day one wagons for twelve seconds and it seems unlikely they are partnered.

I think it's quite unlikely too but there is really no limit to the level of busing I have seen from scum. That said you're actually right that Madoka's townhood is more in question than that the team is not Hiraki+HEM, and that my post kind of says the opposite. But at any rate I'm really more interested in lynching between {HEM, Hiraki} today, and really just awaiting the rest of Golden's posts before I make up my mind on which.

[Hiraki]

I didn't get off your wagon immediately after it went down to two votes because I was hoping Madoka would join the wagon. I was waiting for her catch-up. It's just that soon after her catch up, Datisi hammers George and I didn't know he was L-1 because there wasn't a VC.

1+1=2, not 5

[HoldenGolden]

Addendum Part I,

Section: Conclusion One.

This is why I ask:

I think the difference between scum!Hiraki and town!Hiraki is that town!Hiraki is generally perceptive on scumtells and push it so he can get more accurate reads from the pressure he creates. Scum!Hiraki would need to manufacture these scumtells from peope that he know is town.

I have the benefit of knowing that he's wrong about me, so his push on me might seem like he's trying to manufacture scumtells out of me. However, I'm still considering if it's an honest mistake that he misread my post. After #414, it's weird to me that Hiraki refused to acknowledge my existence and even took me out of his reads list. He mentions that he didn't misread my post but didn't want to argue about it anymore.

So now my head is: Is this town!Hiraki too proud to own up to his mistake or is this scum!Hiraki failing to get momentum on his manufactured push?

I want to know.

VOTE: Hiraki

I'm voting you - how am I taking you out of my reads list? He asked for everyone

but

you. We're going in circles in this argument and there's no point in continuing it because you're just going to "clarify" (read: change)

your post more and more and more. I even put that part in my post that I don't think your lynch goes through today.

I remembered incorrectly the intensity of Hiraki during this time and thought he had push harder onto HEM. Rather, as posts like this suggest, Hiraki had no intentions to try and fight for a HEM lynch. This does invalidate the ruling out of Hiraki/Madoka on the logic presented above. I do think however that stands that they are an unlikely scum team based on Madoka's quick hop on during the Hiraki wagon (which was not shown in a VC, but actually overtook as the major wagon at the time). Still reading however.

[Hiraki]

Rather, as posts like this suggest, Hiraki had no intentions to try and fight for a HEM lynch.

Really? Or was it that everyone dismissed what I was saying and even I get tired?

[Datisi]

less than 21 hours left, yay.

Madoka, comment on 748?

[Umlaut]

Moving into the Hiraki/HEM interaction now.

Hm, is this still going to happen? Or was that second post the whole thing? I really would like to see this.

[Umlaut]

I have it in my head that the team is either {Hiraki, shiki} or {HEM, Madoka}, and the latter consists of exactly the people I townread the most D1, so I should probably just vote Hiraki but I'm sort of hopelessly indecisive rn

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Hiraki (L-1)

It's probably just this.

[HoldenGolden]

V/LA status Till Saturday Morning EST time; expect PM explaining situation @Mod

It is not the extent of the VCA analysis. For reasons I wont go into, I havent been able to complete it. Working on it now through mobile.

[HoldenGolden]

Rather, as posts like this suggest, Hiraki had no intentions to try and fight for a HEM lynch.

Really? Or was it that everyone dismissed what I was saying and even I get tired?

What I was saying was I thought you were more gungho during that interaction about lynching HEM which upon rereading you were not. You post quoted above is an example of you throughout the interaction voicing (and later actually) voting george.