Open 779: Pick Your Power X/Y Game Over!

[DonCorleone]

okay I skimmed between there and this post to finish catching up. I have one more deadline for something that's due tomorrow so i'l be working on that today, but I'll probably dip into the forums from time to time to see what's up

fyi, it's not a great idea to just not play the game if someone is unavailable. like I appreciate that needing to sort between dunn and me was important, but I'm still pretty sure there was other stuff that could have been talked about instead of just letting things pretty much entirely idle until I got back today

[Datisi]

Ok so turns out my availability might not be as good as i thought so

VOTE: aldus

Might be able to check in here and there but no promises

Yeah Dats could have claimed they weren't online if they didn't bus Aldus

DC dats is probably town

idk, I'm listening but I don't think this is as good as you think given that Datisi had just voted melody and then was coming back onto aldus once fark changed his vote back. that to me looks more like someone realising that there are enough people around that with no appetite for melody, aldus is probably defaulting into being the lynch and wanting to make sure the positioning is good.

the main thing that makes me unsure is couching it in the "not sure if I'll be available so I'm gonna vote now" thing. idk if scum would think like that or would think to make their vote using that justification

why does that "make you unsure" exactly? like that's a pretty easy thing to say no?

[Farkset]

Ok, now that both the "cops" have spoken up, i'll out my thoughts as well:

1) I reread the joint don/dunn ISO, with special regard to 39, 66, 39, 75, 83. It clearly suggests that Dunnstral is actually the real cop, which DonCorleone should have realized when discussing with him - however, he refused to consider the *obvious* possibility that the real cop would have crumbed at that point, instead went against the gamestate by insisting on lynching dunnstral. Today, he went ahead and claimed a inno on CSF and then retracted his cop claim. This is anti-town play from DonCorleone - especially if he's PGO because he doesn't show any concern for town powers that could have targeted him.
2) Dunnstral shouldn't have outed today with a green check, instead he should have tried to get JV to talk more and only later divert the wagon if it happened to be on JV or Dunn himself. There was no reason to believe Dunn would die N2 given the premises. This is also anti-town play from Dunn.
3) VCA (1238) is terrible for both the players involved, by which i assume at least one of them is scum, but i wouldn't rule out both.
4) Regardless of the truth behind these claims, i think both CSF and JV are plausibly conftown now, because a town cop wouldn't lie and scum probably wouldn't out their partner in a fakeclaim.

Conclusion:

we should never, EVER lynch outside of the two claims today. I'm much more inclined to lynch DonCorleone now, but seriously we should

NOT

let both players alive. It would lead to a terrible gamestate in the following days which i don't want to cope with. Dunnstral (the likely true cop) should be healed and produce results until lylo-1, then lynched to verify the results and proceed accordingly. If he happens to get both reds before lylo, even better.

There are two possible roleblockers and two possible protectives in effect (doctor/roleblocker and jailkeeper), although they cannot all exist at the same time. The jailkeeper slot should claim today, even if he picked tracker. The roleblocker is mutually exclusive to doctor, so if dunnstral dies tonight we will know where to lynch, otherwise we gain cop results. If the jailkeeper slot won't claim, we know it's likely scum.

Explanation:

if a doctor exists, dunnstral cannot die unless improbable shenanigans. If dunnstral claims blocked, we lynch the jailkeeper.

Math:

assuming we don't lynch scum until 5p lylo (or 6p mylo), we can afford 3 mislynches which is more than enough to test this theory. If this isn't autosolve, it's very close.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

VOTE: Don Corleone

[DonCorleone]

why does that "make you unsure" exactly? like that's a pretty easy thing to say no?

unsure as in I don't know if scum would think to say it, as in tonally it's quite casual and that's giving me a bit of pause

I still think you're very likely scum. whatever happened to that meta-defence you were going to provide?

[Dunnstral]

I don't think jailkeeper should claim, no

I don't think my play is "anti-town", no

I don't think I'm a contender for the lynch today.

UNVOTE:

[DonCorleone]

why does not lynching outside of me and Dunn lead to such a horrible gamestate, fark?

I actually think Dunn's outing today was a good move because fhpov I was plausibly scum and he made me realise that scum (if they blocked me) would now know that I fake claimed and wasn't the real cop. what's the advantage to lynching in me (town) and dunn (overwhelmingly likely TPR) vs lynching in my scumpool?

[Datisi]

why does that "make you unsure" exactly? like that's a pretty easy thing to say no?

unsure as in I don't know if scum would think to say it, as in tonally it's quite casual and that's giving me a bit of pause

I still think you're very likely scum. whatever happened to that meta-defence you were going to provide?

do you think faking tone like that is out of my scumrange? or is that the tone of that post strikes you as different than my tone in other posts?

you were gone for 3 days

i'm debating with myself if it's worth digging around for the links i need when (1) you probably won't care either way and (2) there's a chance you get lynched today kekw

[Farkset]

The more i play this game, the more i think that town lying or town wanting to keep secrets is a cancer against town victory. I mean, i understand that people want to have fun with their information but it needs to be outed when it's useful, keeping it to your death is not going to help town win, it only helps your ego feel satisfied.

We should not lynch outside of don/dunn because there is no reason to do so, this 1v1 makes neither of them town, the VCA is terrible against both. I'm much more inclined to believe dunn is the true cop, but it doesn't have to be a town cop - that's a theory i want to test later - whereas doncorleone has done nothing towny so far.

The jailkeeper should out because it helps us win. It does not need to say who he's going to block. It doesn't even need to say he's jailkeeper or tracker, just that there is a person occupying that slot which puts his life on the line on the account of saving the cop. Scum cannot kill everyone in a single night.

-Farkran

[Datisi]

i don't get how jailkeeper outing helps town win?

[Farkset]

The cop must not be blocked.

-F

[skitter30]

Dc you really should not have done that. It sounded like a fake-claim, especially the checking csf bit
I think they're both town despite that tho

Fark i dont get the benefit of having jk claim but not the doc/rb slot

VOTE: datisi

[Farkset]

Town wouldn't pick RB over doctor. At least i want to hope so. Therefore it's pointless to have doc/rb claim, if they're town they shouldn't claim, if they're scum they won't.

Anyways, do you guys have experience with doncorleone or dunn to say that this kind of play is town indicative for them? Because to be honest i don't, and their VC is really bad. I'd rather have DC removed today, avoid wifom and go for a partial mech/partial read-based progression than let both of them live and regret it later. Pursuing a pure read-based lynch in this gamestate is a bad strategy imo and it leaves more questions unanswered than we have now.

Datisi could be bussing scum but it's nowhere near my best bet, even when considering outside of the cops.

-Farkran

[alimdia]

DC, what do you think of me now? I'll have to do some analysis because I did not expect Aldu to flip scum at all. I thought melody would flip scum. The fact that melody died over .... the top draft people or even the cop claim implies that either one of the top draft people are scum and/or they felt that melody was so confirmed town that it was a priority kill over all.

p.s. I may or may not have lied about being a PR

idk, you're also somewhat +town now for aldus flipping 2. I definitely think that my analysis of why you were scum was wrong so you're back in a "to be sorted" pool for me where I'm gonna run through your content again. the main thing I dislike is you kind of retracting your PR claim because if that's true then you risked forcing another PR to out unnecessarily just to survive, which I don't think is very town vs trying to out a PR potentially if you're scum. but equally, this could just be bad play, I don't think you're inherently scum for it especially when balanced against the mechanical reason to clear you of aldus flipping 2

Well I asked aldu if he was a PR or not at some point. If he said yes I'd prob have retracted it.

Anyway, that CSF inno was a bit er... weird.

I'll reread more tomorrow to see where we should lynch.

Dunnstral, what are your results now that DC has retracted?

[alimdia]

Maybe Iconeum

[Dunnstral]

I checked JacksonVirgo, he's town

[Datisi]

@skitter
why does what you say about dp in 1255 not apply to me and what happened to this:

I also think its low-key unlikely for there to be more than 1 scum in the 1's and 2's combined

[skitter30]

@skitter
why does what you say about dp in 1255 not apply to me and what happened to this:

I also think its low-key unlikely for there to be more than 1 scum in the 1's and 2's combined

a) wrt the end of the aldu wagon - when it looked like other people might be viable, you indicated that you preferred a different lynch, but circled back to aldu once other people shut that down (i said i wouldn't switch, fark revoted aldu)
b) yes that's true and tbh i kinda forgot that you were in the 1's. i don't think that it's a great reason to rule out half the pl tho, and at this point i kinda want to push you a bit given that i feel woefully unimpressed with your content

[JacksonVirgo]

Do you think that if scum had a PR and a Goon remaining, the Goon would attack? I believe so

[JacksonVirgo]

I checked JacksonVirgo, he's town

Uwu that helps a tonne

[Farkset]

But whatever, I'd probably need to out today regardless; I checked JacksonVirgo, he's town

So what was the point of waiting with this?
~ker

[Farkset]

Do you think that if scum had a PR and a Goon remaining, the Goon would attack? I believe so

well yea? why not?
~ker

[Farkset]

So i've been talking with Kerset and reviewing some ISOs. Posting conclusions again:

1) CSF is very, very likely town. Posts 901 and 1094 wouldn't come from aldus partners imo, also i doubt that scum would hardbus aldus as early as 574580 when there were plenty of chances to actually save him, i.e. by attacking slots that CSF had good progression on, like almidia.

2) As i said, JV is still likely town regardless of cop alignment

3) Skitter might have been overconfident on aldus, yeah... but her reads also make sense as town so i'm fine not touching her until way later.

4) I still think that Almidia is town by virtue of his wagon being born as a mean to save aldus.

5) I still disagree about DrDrew being town by claim, but i realize that i am largely a minority so i'm not going to push there any further

^^^ This is currently my townbloc. ^^^ I wouldn't touch dunnstral today, for reasons i have already talked about in my latest post.

I'd still much rather lynch doncorleone today. I don't want him anywhere near lylo. However, with the purpose of cooperating with town if we don't want to go there, i can compromise on {Iconeum, Datisi, DoctorPepper} in that respective order of preference, based on VC 1064 and my own reads.

I like numbered lists in this game, i hope my posts are readable enough.

-Farkran

[Datisi]

what's the case on ico again?

[Iconeum]

The bad play may have been fake claiming cop and providing elaborate justifications for your night actions

If scum knew you were fake claiming there's no reason for you to continue fake claiming. People won't believe me if I try to cc on day 3

Also, you pushing me day 1 for doubting your claim is suspect considering you're not the role you said you were

But whatever, I'd probably need to out today regardless; I checked JacksonVirgo, he's town

Good clear

VOTE: donc