Newbie 2012 - Game Over

[Micc]

Votecount 2.02

72offsuit (4) -

WaltertheDunce10, Ydrasse, ItalianoVD, DoctorPepper

UNOwen (1) -

72offsuit

Not Voting (4) -

MiniMegabyte, UNOwen, GuiltyLion

With 8 players alive it takes 5 votes to Eliminate.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2020-07-07 13:05:00).

MiniMegabyte is V/LA until 7/4.

[WaltertheDunce10]

I've also been revisiting these posts from 72 immediately after my 218, particularly these sections

4. Voting a replacing out/AFK player feels like a waste of a vote, and basically suiting scum agenda its not like pi can reply.
Even in getting a reply from the replacement here, its very easy for !scumSera to read the thread and take the path thats best suits scumagenda, as they are not tied to their predecessors "reads"

Voting/FoSing a lurker in !townPi/now-Sera (easy mislynch target), as well as a "competent" player in myself (removal of a potential threat), would certainly suit !scumagenda.
Obviously that depends on pi/Sera's alignment. [not that I;m a particularly good player or anything, but I do ahave a couple of games under my belt]

This first part seems to be meant to shade my pressure on the pi slot and also say that it's bad because !scumSera could handle my pressure? I hadn't caught this before but it's a bit weird that 72 thinks my vote is bad because scum will be able to handle it - it still means I'm voting scum.

There's also a hedge on Sera throughout, and a significant portion of the rest of 234 (too much to quote but I suggest going back to the post) is meant to discredit my townreads on TTJT and UNOwen, I suspect potentially as a means of distraction on the pii/Sera/Mini vote if you're town UNOwen.

Overall gamestate-wise, Pii lurking and being replaced and DP being on VLA has resulted in the same (relatively) few people posting.

Uno is still on IVD (the leading wagon), who Uno originally voted for in RVS, which is telling, I think, given Uno is also a leading wagon.

My preferred lynchpool is {TTJT , Uno}

As it stands, I wouldn't lose sleep over lynching pi/Sera if it comes to it.

I'm also kinda suspicious again here by him ultimately evolving from a {TTJT/Uno} pool to a DoctorPepper push - while also being open to voting pi/Sera without explicitly putting them in an elimination pool. Again, would like to see if you agree on this UNOwen - if you're town and I'm scum, why does he categorize pi/Sera separately rather than just having a three person elimination pool?

These things don't look so bad in ISO as associatives when uncertain about 72's slot, but if I assume that he's scum, I think it points to pi/Sera over UNOwen.

So I took a look at the 234 post because it stands out in a couple of ways for 72.
It is his longest post other than his meta read of doctor pepper.
It also adds to the gl shade on his reads.
Another thing is that later on he asks gm when piis will be replaced and then offer mini tips and votes for her.
This does not mean anything but then switches that vote onto dp and the subsequent posts about the read on doctorpepper because of the no interaction.
Also feels the need to claim the hammer as an accident more than needed and has not moved on from it.
I should note he says he has been cooperative in 724 then then questions others.
in my opinion 72 seems very defensive on today's posts.

[Ydrasse]

@72: i don't think you can say that DP cannot pose a threat to you simply because he voted — he can continue to push onto you, engage with you, etc etc and convince other people similarly to vote against you. he had said it pretty clearly that he wanted it to be him or you, and thus he wasn't going to relent fmpov in pushing on you.

also in that post 710 i was referring to the DP wagon dying out, not the JT one.

@owen: i don't understand how my stance isn't coherent? DP's presence and content improved as the day goes on but not so much where i am sold on him not being scum. 72's hammer gives me a whole new perspective on their 1v1. i don't see these two things as exclusive concepts, i guess?

maybe it's the choice of saying "townier and townier" because that probably does imply a certain amount of strength to it? post-hammer i was just trying to type out my thoughts then and there so the thread didn't get locked midway through a post.

---

mod: v/la until 7/5

[72offsuit]

Town
+2 IVD

+0.5 Walter

Null
Ydd

Scum
-0.5: Mini, DP

-1: GL
-1.5: Uno

[72offsuit]

Actually more like GL -2

[72offsuit]

I'm wondering why !scum TTJT wouldnt vote for mini

Why would they both vote for Walter, when its unlikely walter will be lynched?

eh actually that's a fair point

I think TTJT's vote for Walter doesn't make a lot of sense in general to me. Like you said, it's unlikely Walter will be lynched. I didn't vibe with the case, I think TTJT just summarized a lot of Walter's play but didn't actually do the legwork of why he thinks Walter is scum outside of "afraid to lead wagons". And I got the sense TTJT is avoiding the DoctorPepper wagon. That's why I thought the associative made sense, but it is a good question why scum!TTJT doesn't just vote Mini there.

Anyone care to explain TTJT as scum? I'm kinda town reading their posts because the UNOwen analysis makes sense to me

yeh I guess this is also unlikely from scum!DocPep with scum!TTJT

VOTE: Doctor Pepper

It makes no sense for them to drive a lunch at this point if they know their target will flip town due to the backlash that would fall.

How do you possibly say this and then decide to vote 72 when he was the one most vocal about driving a lynch today

that's too much cognitive dissonance for me to ignore at this point
VOTE: TheThirteenthJT

DoctorPepper - if you are town, please revisit the point about 72

steering the lynch away from TTJT and onto you

and why that's scum-motivated. I think if you're town, you're letting your frustration at being pushed for activity blind you to the fact that there's really no incentive to do that if he's scum, unless he's exactly partnered with TTJT.

also i feel that if 72 is scum too gl just became a lot more of a likely partner and they could have coordinated that vote on a townie!jt.

if jt is scum i don't know what motivation a scum 72 has to hammer his partner though or even switch wagons like that when he's under a lot of scrutiny because dp is going to still go after him the next day.

If JT isn't trolling then the partner is probably GuiltyLion.

IMO both these twilight shades were ugly

I would like both of you to explain why exactly you think scum!GL and scum!72 have any kind of need to coordinate a quickhammer there. I know it may not mean much coming from me, but I believe scum quickhammers on D1 are tremendously bad play unless you're absolutely sure you've got the PR (even then, it's a gamble that can easily sink you), and I really don't see how you think TTJT was such an urgent need to remove that our hypothetical team would need to trash my good standing as well as 72's in order to secure THAT specific D1 mislynch.

i feel that dp had a lot more to lose from thunderdoming it out with 72 in this situation and i think that 72's response of "oh we can work this out you might not be scum" feels scummier than dp's conviction that 72 is scum. i think that dp became townier the longer it went on. 568 in particular is a good representation of this thought process.

i don't know if a scum!72 would hammer like that and try to pretend it was fake/accidental though, because that seems dumb as hell to do.

I’m wondering when you felt this because you voted for DoctorPepper. Whether it was before or after you voted for him doesn’t change anything.

This is also a really good question that I want Ydrasse to answer.

VOTE: 72offsuit

This progression doesn;t feel like town at all

[DoctorPepper]

I'm gonna be honest. I am willing to vote to eliminate you out of policy even if I think there are people who are more likely scum.

Just being transparent here

[GuiltyLion]

I'm also kinda suspicious again here by him ultimately evolving from a {TTJT/Uno} pool to a DoctorPepper push - while also being open to voting pi/Sera without explicitly putting them in an elimination pool. Again, would like to see if you agree on this UNOwen - if you're town and I'm scum, why does he categorize pi/Sera separately rather than just having a three person elimination pool?

I don't know the answer to your question, but I don't think it is as significant as you suggest. Both myself and JT were "scumreads" whereas pi was just a lurker. So there's a logic to the post even if he was faking it. I see what you are saying, that he was keeping pi on the table but out of the limelight. I'm not convinced that is the obvious motivation behind the post.

Not a fan of the vote analysis because it skips over a couple of important points that are not reflected in the vote count:
1) 72 had already unvoted JT by the time Mini joined the wagon
2) His next vote was then against Mini (which clashes with your suggestion above about 72 keeping the slot out of attention)

Whoops, I didn't catch either of these points (was on lunch break kinda rushing to post useful stuff, I ISO'd 72 backwards to see at what point he moved his vote off of TTJT was and only got to 403, completely missed that he had voted Mini first ) so that's entirely fair. My bad.

I think a plausible explanation for the DP push is this (assuming a scum!Mini partner): 72 noticed that both scum were on a wagon on town, and got nervous about

how this was not setting them up well for D2 as townies tend to look for at least one scum on-wagon, and two of the off-wagon slots (Ydrasse/Walter) were very widely townread.

Thus, by starting a push on DP, he either shifts attention away from TTJT (which leads to TTJT being a viable elimination candidate later in the game if DP wagon goes through), or he sets himself up to push DP again on D2 and also for townies to make themselves look worse by piling on TTJT past this point.

I might just be tired but I don't understand what you're saying in the bolded - could you rephrase that?
On the broader theory, yes that is plausible, though it also fits with you as the partner. Once 72 unvoted JT, he changed his pool to {Mini, DrP} and actually voted against Mini in 383. He then switched his vote to DrP in 404, which is after 395 from DrP, the post both you and Italiano interpreted as a pr soft. So that tallies with my idea that he was pr hunting.

I think you've raised some reasonable points but in the end this is the scenario 72-Mini requires: 72 knows his scum partner is not trusted by anyone, very new to the game and liable to be voted out at some point. He decides the best play is to make an attention grabbing push against DoctorPepper even though the lead wagon is a townie. When this counter push meets resistance he recalculates, decides the best he can hope for is to survive to day 2 and quickhammers in the hope that Mini can win the game from there.

I don't believe that. The alternative is that 72 has a well positioned scum partner, who he has confidence can win the game and then it becomes more plausible. The risky play is less risky and the quickhammer calculation is more reasonable (presuming he suspected JT was a pr).

Bolded - I was trying to say (assuming 72/Mini team) that both scum would be on an L-1 wagon which means high likelihood of one of them getting caught if townies hunt on the wagon -> which I thought was especially likely since I don't think Ydrasse/Walter would have been heavily suspected after the flip.

I can see where you're coming from and maybe I need to re-evaluate again. I'm not getting the sense that you are scum, and I'm not getting that sense (nor do I have compelling evidence) that Ydrasse is scum either. I had ruled out Italiano/Walter already, maybe it's worth re-visiting them, I'll try to reread again with that in mind.

[72offsuit]

VOTE: GL

[Micc]

Prodding ItalianoVD.

[DoctorPepper]

TBH, I think scum is hiding behind this certainty of 72.

[WaltertheDunce10]

Do you think scum are pushing for him or against it?

[DoctorPepper]

Is scum actively defending this wagon?

[GuiltyLion]

I believe 72 is scum and I need to reevaluate who the other one could be since jt is dead.

Walter you said you'd re-evaluate here a few days ago

have you come to any conclusions? I need some more insight from you as to what you think is going on

[GuiltyLion]

Italiano I'd also like to jam with you next time you come to the thread, do you have any particular townreads/scumreads in the other players right now? Are you getting any scum vibes from either Ydrasse or UNOwen?

[WaltertheDunce10]

To me the other potential scum could be mini or unowen, with 72 being one of them.
However, if 72 is town then my reads are off.
I plan to do a reread but need to find the time.
Docpepper is town along with jt now.

[UNOwen]

@owen: i don't understand how my stance isn't coherent? DP's presence and content improved as the day goes on but not so much where i am sold on him not being scum. 72's hammer gives me a whole new perspective on their 1v1. i don't see these two things as exclusive concepts, i guess?

maybe it's the choice of saying "townier and townier" because that probably does imply a certain amount of strength to it? post-hammer i was just trying to type out my thoughts then and there so the thread didn't get locked midway through a post.

Maybe. You only said he was getting "townier", but the thread-locking concern is a reasonable point.
You did not answer my question about potential partners for 72. I know you still intend to iso myself and Italiano, so accepting that this is subject to change: What is your current read list?

[UNOwen]

To me the other potential scum could be mini or unowen, with 72 being one of them.
However, if 72 is town then my reads are off.
I plan to do a reread but need to find the time.
Docpepper is town along with jt now.

What do you think of my argument about why 72-Mini is an unlikely scum team?

[ItalianoVD]

Dang my bad guys, I didn’t even know it had been that long since I posted last. I’ll catch up on a bit.

[ItalianoVD]

Real quick. GuiltyLion you pulled your vote away from 72 early on because you said you didn’t want him to self hammer. DoctorPepper said the same thing. Are you planning on voting for 72 or do you have someone else you want to lynch?

[DoctorPepper]

I'm already voting 72.

[ItalianoVD]

I'm already voting 72.

Yup I know. That’s why I was asking GuiltyLion.

[72offsuit]

I'm already voting 72.

Yup I know. That’s why I was asking GuiltyLion.

Ye, he wants to eliminate me but doesny want my blood on his hands.

[72offsuit]

To me the other potential scum could be mini or unowen, with 72 being one of them.
However, if 72 is town then my reads are off.
I plan to do a reread but need to find the time.
Docpepper is town along with jt now.

What do you think of my argument about why 72-Mini is an unlikely scum team?

It's lame.

[GuiltyLion]

Real quick. GuiltyLion you pulled your vote away from 72 early on because you said you didn’t want him to self hammer. DoctorPepper said the same thing. Are you planning on voting for 72 or do you have someone else you want to lynch?

I definitely want to eliminate 72 today and I'll give intent to hammer sooner or later, but I want a bit more discussion on who we think his partner is. I'm not feeling especially comfortable with it being any of Ydrasse/UNOwen/Mini at this point and so I'm looking for more thoughts from everybody on this topic