Micro 968: Your Nightmare (But 4 Scarier)

[Jingle]

Vote Count 2.2

Umlaut (0):
Aristophanes (0):
Lost (0):
Gamma Emerald (0):
Random Canadian (0):
Dongempire (0):

No Elimination (0):

Not Voting (6): Umlaut, Aristophanes, Lost, Gamma Emerald, Random Canadian, Dongempire,

The Deadline for Day 2 is in 7 days on October 9th, in (expired on 2020-10-09 22:00:00).

With 6 alive, it is 4 to force someone to succumb to their fear or 3 to no eliminate.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Lost

just to get something going.

[Donempire]

@Jingle who wins if everyone dies at the same night?

If literally every player dies simultaneously, both win conditions are achieved. Mafia achieves parity and town eliminates all mafia.

If we knew this on day 1 we could have just all agreed to fearkill one another for the mutual win.

Actually, it may still be possible to arrange this?

Question for everyone:

(True/False) "I believe a mutual win is just as good as a win for my team only."

My answer is

True

.

If everyone says True to this then it is likely possible, with unanimous cooperation, to force a mutual win.

False.
Thats pretty much against the spirit of the game, and i have no belief that scum wont lie about their fear. We are 6 people, and we're playing mafia. Someone will definitely lie. I think we dont have a need for this either.

[Donempire]

Heres what i see:
Random Canadian is confirmed town . Of course, not objectively, but i wont be voting this slot ever this game. He didnt get his fearkill claim ccd, so im taking that as fact. Knowing that, would scum!canadian kill his own partner?
I was still supporting kerset. Lost was mildly supporting him. And since we didnt die tonight, i assume scum was relying on using us some more next day. In that case, killing kerset accomplishes the exact opposite, since now we can focus on other avenues.
Even ignoring all of that, would canadian kill their partner for some cred? I highly doubt that. Like i said, i would probably still support kerset even if i listened to aristos arguments, and they could at least get a fear claim from someone else so macro wise its a misplay. And losing one member matters in a game where you're slinging shit at a wall trying to hit fears, they lose out on %50 of their kill potential since canadian targets his partner. So, in addition to what i've read from canadian so far, im finding it hard to believe that kerset and him are partnered.
Umlaut is a close second. 496 isnt made by scum. Nor 228. I'd have to jump through a lot of logical hoops to believe kerset is partnered with umlaut.

[Donempire]

Before going further into analysis, is there anyone here who thinks i can be scum? Because im conftowning myself by design here, and my plan only works with me as town.
So we narrowed the lynch pool down to 3 people. How do we proceed?
Between gamma emerald, aristo and lost im putting my chips on lost.
In the case that im wrong, we can either roll the dice and autowin if we're lucky, or play normally.
So in the rolling the dice method, we lynch lost and target aristo. This is an autowin scenario if the fear is alive, but more importantly if the scum dont get a kill with their own fear. If they do, and aristo isnt scum, and the fear is alive, and they kill someone else besides aristo and fear someone else then they win. For me, the chance is quite small for everything working out so this is the one route i want to go.
Playing normally is lynching lost today and abstaining from fearing anyone. At best, scum gets two kills and we're down to normal lylo. At worst, scum kill one and leave us in a 4way. Since the scum can so easily choose not to fear in this scenario this is one i want to avoid.
Also, should we claim our roles now?Its nearing endgame and i think that may be beneficial.

[Umlaut]

is there anyone here who thinks i can be scum?

I don't really think you

are

scum but I have to admit I don't consider you cleared the way I consider Gamma and Canadian cleared.

When you say massclaim do you mean roles only, or our fears as well? I'm more concerned about the latter since it likely gives scum an extra kill, and would prefer to only get fear claims from the two people we plan to yeet (I say these should be Lost and Aristo, but if town consensus is on another pair then so be it).

[Donempire]

I mean only the roles, not the fear. I'm going to do something based on what a particular person claims as their role.

[Lost]

@Jingle who wins if everyone dies at the same night?

If literally every player dies simultaneously, both win conditions are achieved. Mafia achieves parity and town eliminates all mafia.

If we knew this on day 1 we could have just all agreed to fearkill one another for the mutual win.

Actually, it may still be possible to arrange this?

Question for everyone:

(True/False) "I believe a mutual win is just as good as a win for my team only."

My answer is

True

.

If everyone says True to this then it is likely possible, with unanimous cooperation, to force a mutual win.

nope

there's a pretty good chance those that have already died are the fears of those alive, so that would probably leave 3 of us immune to a fearkill, and we wouldn't be able to cleanly kill off everyone

[Lost]

i actl do think dong could be scum, but when i saw the flips i alr knew i'd get elim'd today

[Lost]

ehhh i typed out a plan but realized it was too messy and only gets us to lylo with 1 conftown and that doesn't really help

i'm down to claim, but i will say that i don't see any mechanically way to win this currently. probably the best bet is a mix of reads, poe, and fearkills to hopefully end it with night actions

[Lost]

rc
gamma
umlaut
dong
ari

town on top, scum on bottom

that would be my kill preference

for anyone that does care about my opinion

[Random Canadian]

Before going further into analysis, is there anyone here who thinks i can be scum? Because im conftowning myself by design here, and my plan only works with me as town.
So we narrowed the lynch pool down to 3 people. How do we proceed?
Between gamma emerald, aristo and lost im putting my chips on lost.
In the case that im wrong, we can either roll the dice and autowin if we're lucky, or play normally.
So in the rolling the dice method, we lynch lost and target aristo. This is an autowin scenario if the fear is alive, but more importantly if the scum dont get a kill with their own fear. If they do, and aristo isnt scum, and the fear is alive, and they kill someone else besides aristo and fear someone else then they win. For me, the chance is quite small for everything working out so this is the one route i want to go.
Playing normally is lynching lost today and abstaining from fearing anyone. At best, scum gets two kills and we're down to normal lylo. At worst, scum kill one and leave us in a 4way. Since the scum can so easily choose not to fear in this scenario this is one i want to avoid.
Also, should we claim our roles now?Its nearing endgame and i think that may be beneficial.

I think claiming roles could be beneficial at this point. With the rolling the dice plan though, we can't count on fear targeting because the person holding our targets fear may no longer be alive. After we eliminate someone we would be down to 5, and I can't fear kill anymore because my target is out which leaves it resting on 4.

[Random Canadian]

So what we know right now is this knowledge:

Player	Role	Fear
Sirius	Global Warming	Great Wall of China
Kerset	Other People's Expectations of Me	Contact with a Cluster of Larvae
Pooky	Dying Alone	Losing My Mind
RC	Contact with a Cluster of Larvae	?
Umlaut	?	?
Ari	?	?
Lost	?	?
Gamma	?	?
Dong	?	?

Knowing that the roles of the 3 gone already don't overlap each others' fears, it lets us know that there are 3 alive still that can't be fear killed, which is significant if we are trying to plan fear kills overnight.

[Donempire]

Yeah thats sad.
Im waiting on ari and losts thoughts on whether or not we should claim roles

[Gamma Emerald]

i have consulted webmd

i diagnose myself with apathy toward this game

some1 help

same tbh
the person that has the fear I can kill with died already, and my own fear is also dead, so for m this is essentially just a vanilla game -_-

[Gamma Emerald]

i have consulted webmd

i diagnose myself with apathy toward this game

some1 help

Lol how about I state my read despite probably being another day or two to make a real case.

i will now pull a read out of my ass in hopes that this game once again comes alive

it's gamma/kerset

Gamma/Kerset is not something I believe. The tensions between the two did not look fake and I townread Gamma heavily off of those interactions yesterday.

Kerset/Dong makes huge sense to me though.

Are you gonna be consistently active this day phase?

[Gamma Emerald]

@Jingle who wins if everyone dies at the same night?

If literally every player dies simultaneously, both win conditions are achieved. Mafia achieves parity and town eliminates all mafia.

If we knew this on day 1 we could have just all agreed to fearkill one another for the mutual win.

Actually, it may still be possible to arrange this?

Question for everyone:

(True/False) "I believe a mutual win is just as good as a win for my team only."

My answer is

True

.

If everyone says True to this then it is likely possible, with unanimous cooperation, to force a mutual win.

I have an opinion on this but I think it's best if I answer last

[Gamma Emerald]

since 2 people already said no I think I can vocalize my thoughts
with 3 people being unable to fearkill, such a plan would require scum cooperation as we don't have enough eliminations to do it without it.
So my response is TRUE but I don't see it as viable at this point

[Aristophanes]

Yeah thats sad.
Im waiting on ari and losts thoughts on whether or not we should claim roles

We can. At most scum get 1 extra kill ever so yaknow

[Aristophanes]

Are you gonna be consistently active this day phase?

Have I not been??

[Aristophanes]

Oh, and FALSE
I think in certain scenarios a draw can be okay, or a shared victory actually when it's multiball for example.

But I am meh on draws overall. And in this case it is impossible.

[Donempire]

Yeah thats sad.
Im waiting on ari and losts thoughts on whether or not we should claim roles

We can. At most scum get 1 extra kill ever so yaknow

Hmm... I just want to, honestly
Im brain damage

[Lost]

Yeah thats sad.
Im waiting on ari and losts thoughts on whether or not we should claim roles

the lazy side of me wants to claim because planning night action is easy and it's not like we'll make miseducated elims and fearkills and end up botching this

[Lost]

but we're 6 layers with 1 scum, why are we so bad rn

[Lost]

oh dong are we claining now?