Happy Face Mafia (Game Over)

[Retti]

At some point when I'm not being lazy I'll cover the actually long ISOs

[Retti]

Wouldn't that leave us in exactly the same situation we're in now?

[Retti]

ok the second the titus lim starts happening i'm thinking vfp is town, stays on raya/titus for awhile over andante which isn't great but the whole time he's making it clear he doesn't feel good about a titus vote and actively fights a dunn vote. metas titus to argue for the no elim, arguably that's all just for cred but the second the guilty gets whipped out on andante the process he pulls out is super believable.

later he irons out the clears/extremely hard townreads and comes up with this the second andante flips

Even with me in the pool it should just be jjh, me, Raya, and Drapjon for last scum.

this dude really wants to lose the game as scum

I feel like you're assuming some amount of optimal play from scum which is, uh, not an assumption I would be comfortable making

But I'll look your stuff over later tonight, don't have time to think it over right now

[Retti]

Meh I was going to see if there was an argument for fading today and yolo'ing the dice roll but the math doesn't add up even if I think there's a practical case for it

[Retti]

In practical terms, if we're wrong now on someone, 1/4 chance they die overnight and we get to re-evaluate, while if we vote someone today it's 1/3 chance we get a lucky die roll and the scum kill stacks with the vig.

But I don't feel like gambling, and if no fade is the direction people want to go I think it's best to stop talking altogether at this point.

[Retti]

If there were 2 mafia it would be almost impossible for town to actually win but I know that's not the case so

[Retti]

Because the first thing I learned from my ability was that there are 4 mafia in the game. But even if that were a lie and there were 2 mafia remaining I just lol selfvote and we get 3 NKs and probably win the game regardless

(not to mention 13:5 would be EXTREMELY fucked with something as antitown as your mask)

[Retti]

VOTE: no fade

[Retti]

Spoiler: Math Stuff

from a neutral perspective:

voting today

1/4 (probability of voting correctly) + 3/4 (probability of voting incorrectly)*1/3 (probability the scum nightkill stacks with the vig kill)*1/3 (probability of voting right in 3 way)=0.3333

no fade today

1/4 (probability of the clear getting vigged)*1/4 (probability of voting right in 4 way)+3/4 (probability of an unclear getting vigged)*1/3 (probability of voting right in 3 way)=0.3125

if I look at things from my own POV where I know I'm town it goes to:

1/3 (probability of voting correctly)+2/3 (probability of voting incorrectly)*1/3 (probability the scum nightkill stacks with the vig kill)*1/2 (probability of voting right in 3 way)=0.4444

1/2 (probability of a clear getting vigged)*1/3 (probability of voting right in 3 way)+1/2 (probability of an unclear getting vigged)*1/2 (probability of voting right in 3 way)=0.4167

The tldr is that there's a slight mathematical advantage to voting today but not really to the point where I can justify voting. I'd rather just no fade at this point given where discussion has gone.

[Retti]

If I were scum I'd just say "you know what let's fade Raya" yesterday and win

But I felt like she towntold the moment she made that "I'd rather you vote me today" post

[Retti]

Well, I popped the inflatables. To no effect it seems.

I was assuming you did something to stop the kill and that's why you're alive?

[Retti]

Well played Retti.

Why are you concluding it's me and not willow?

[Retti]

Anyway, I don't have time to think about this game tonight, I'll get back to it tomorrow.

[Retti]

Honestly, it's MYLO, I ain't voting anything except a no yeet.

I'm curious what effect I've had though I know I've had one

I don't see what the point is here when you're clear and most likely to die

[Retti]

Willow, when you're around, let's talk.

[Retti]

i find the bit about going raya yesterday so-so. as scum you don't want to risk losing the target elim to the vigshot, but getting the elim only to have town bailed out by the shot is worse & more likely

In a hypothetical words where I'm scum getting boned by the rand after an elimination yesterday is less likely than one of vfp/raya dying and leaving me worse off, but this is probably not a productive discussion regardless so let's drop it


My concern is that yesterday I felt like you should have recognized that regardless of whatever points you were making against Raya, her response was towny, and you not recognizing when that happened is something of a red flag for me. It made me worry that you were committing to push there no matter what. I also feel like you've been fairly lax with townreading me (even before the gladiator claim stuff) where normally I say something innocuous and you jump down my throat for it, in a sense the lack of paranoia has

me

paranoid about possibly being pocketed here


So, n your own words, what are the reasons you aren't scum here?

[Retti]

I'm the king of lategame paranoia, man

[Retti]

idk what ur expecting here dog anytime someone asks "why r u town" it's gonna get a "here are the million reasons why my play makes perfect sense as scum and ur dumb, ackshually. im town tho" response i can't help it this is known

I mean, yeah, but I wanted to see what you'd say regardless. The fully fleshed out reasoning for your read on me day 1 at least makes sense, wasn't clear at all in my view. The point about Titus is kind of w/e but the bear one is a good one, some things have slipped my memory and I should probably do a real reread rather than just brief ctrl+Fing an being like ehh idk

[Retti]

wait i know what'll help ur paranoia

here's this sequence from jjh it's not sketchy at all lmao dw about it

Willow's reads feel pretty out there to me, which I'm taking as a sign that Willow is town

Scum are more inclined to come out with reads that are similar to what other people in the game are putting out


On the same note, I think I can see T3 scum but will have to iso properly

Titus is just town fwiw

Willow's reads feel pretty out there to me, which I'm taking as a sign that Willow is town

which

Doesn't seem like a readslist made to appease at all; in other words it is sincere

Most of it is null or leans
The list has Esooa, who I feel is generally a consensus hard town as only a townlean, and I don't think there's a lot of attention on VFP right now

That most of it is null or leans even on slots where there's a consensus

There aren't any extras sneaking in that Willow hasn't been focusing on just for the sake of agreeing with town

Lol godamit

[Retti]

idk actually the titus/bell progression is pretty town in the sense that i didn't powershove bell but actively got in the way of people derailing it w/ reasoning that was obviously garbage (titus explicitly argued that this wasn't bell's scumgame and i was like ??? it might flip town b/c could just be busy+demotivated as town too but absolutely this is classic bell scum)

and in particular didn't try to use that to really swing it elsewhere, let somebody else swing it elsewhere, or even use it to get an elim. i didn't like titus's positioning but i went to bat for that elim so hard only to give it up for free. no reason to stop other than bear spamming she was town, which is not something to back off for or really be afraid of when i am intentionally burning my credit to get a vote day 2. that backoff only happened because i knew if she was lying i'd get her day 3 and that the vig meant we'd win back the elim

I mean I feel like resisting the vote on Bell is a dead end though because I'd be inclined to call bullshit on it and that gets you nowhere. Like, hypothetically if you're in the situation where you're scum with Bell and he just guiltied himself with a tactical replace out, what would you be doing instead?

I do understand what you're saying here about titus although the game was pretty much the bear show for day 1-2 until we started getting guilties, I would expect there was incentive to just keep pushing it though (and leaving her alive means she would be much harder to eliminate lategame) so I guess it makes sense

[Retti]

anyway at some point i should check the mask info claim timeline but i really think you're town mechanically over that much qualitative.

maybe the poison would be the reward for the second gladiate but this setup is wack

I would have used the poison a lot sooner I think

also I should probably out that I used my mask to get another gladiate last night and wasn't told of any downside, I don't know if that means scum got a bonus or what. I felt like I might as well yolo it though because there was a decent chance I'd die anyway and if I lived I wanted to be able to prove my mask wasn't the poison one

[Retti]

So I'm prepared to make this day a 1v1, I just want to be sure of what I'm doing before I pull the trigger

[Retti]

anyway if you want to do this we're going to do this all the way

I don't need to say it at this poin,t but willow is really blatantly town.

Everything VFP is saying in response to him is just deflect, riposte, parry, there's no substance to the responses, his only argument is that willow sounds "fake and forced"

i gave this as pass b/c shared my scumread and i was indeed town

but the blatantly town bit suggests that the "blatantly town" bit held even if vfp flipped town, which is a little too strong for my taste.

y, i can be hella aggro towards lhf as scum too

I think at that point in time it wasn't the aggression but the way you were approaching the argument with assmad frustration - you felt tilted at VFP in a way that I only expect to come from you as town where you'd be more in control as scum (although that's conjecture on my part)

[Retti]

this is really funny to me because iirc i wasn't actually mad or tilted at all, just very intentionally aggressive in ways similar to other accounts. i was more concerned about getting bogged down in the weeds and making it unreadable which is why i tried so hard to disconnect it

anyway idk how much to buy that given that i have faked that same aggro annoyance in literally every single scumgame i have ever played onsite and yet people cite it as a classic towntell for me anyway it's bizarre

Well that was how it came across to me at the time and it was entirely reminiscent to me of you as town, comparing it to similar moments, but of course I don't have a mental model of your scumplay, maybe that was cavalier of me but that was how it felt at the time - that you wouldn't necessarily play in a way that would draw that much negative attention early on and the way you were arguing with him looked genuine

[Retti]

i actually did get so tilted at titus actually but that was because she didn't understand basic premises or logical implications which for someone of her exp/vocation is kinda ???????

but she town i bad so

Tbf getting tilted at titus is par for the course

[Retti]

if what we have seen so far is the extent of commentary we can expect from you i am 100% fine voting you out. know in advance that any lecture about how it's suboptimal to flip you if you're town or w/e will be ignored w/ zero remorse. the only thing that is of any interest to me whatsoever is for you to actually back up the opinions you're giving rather than be an empty black box that spits out random reads with no explanation.

like i just gave you a springboard to talk about two reads that you appear to have a stance on that are actually interesting and can help drive the pace of the game forward in meaningful ways, one of them being around a contentious wagon that you could help derail, find scum on, etc.

and that was what you gave

and you have the gall to be like "this game is too slow nothing is happening nobody is giving anything everybody else do things"

My boozle requires assistance, VFP.

Because you're focus is going where I'm thinking.
Your questions aren't questions to look busy but actually want the answers.
164 is a decent take, even if some errors.

my bad, you actually did explain the bamboozle read, took more teeth pulling but you did it

my vote is not moving until you explain what is wrong with the dunnstral wagon or provide a substantial scumread on a player

sounds like me and enchant made bad posts. stop being a coward and explain it

and yeah, if you only give any anything of substance when directly asked, you're being completely worthless as a player and should be policied even without that content being awkward as hell

more performative garbage instead of actual substance

more votes on this slot, thanks

instead of just explaining why he doesn't like the dunn vote or investigating the people on it he launches into this spiel about how he will not be worried about being flipped, because he is town, and will not join a wagon for peer pressure, because he is town

a++

literally completely unable to put his money where his mouth is, on me, on the dunn wagon, on enchant, on anything

Like, eh, can you pull a beatdown on someone like this early as scum? probably, but at the time the way the sequences was presented did not feel like it came from a scum mindset

I mean if you want to prove me wrong that isn't town-AI for you, uh, go ahead

[Retti]

I wish I had better words than "it just didn't ~feel~ that way"

[Retti]

Eh not right now, maybe when I fully read back I'll have actual good things to ask but that covered the base of the silly shit that was on my mind

[Retti]

It is kind of funny that it all comes back to VFP after that day 1

at the time what inspired me to doubt whether he was scum was that he displayed similar behavior in electoral college, where he got misyeeted day 2, but it was still ongoing at the time so I couldn't reference it. But now he has actual completed scumgames and I don't think the play here is distinctly town-meta for him

this game feels like it's lasted a million years

[Retti]

I don't even remember what convinced me the Raya read wasn't right in the first place anymore

[Retti]

I do not understand why, as town, you are not giving serious consideration to me being mafia. You are not even entertaining the idea and it feels performatively goofbally.

The game is over if you are town and get voted out. Why are you telling Flea to stick to the plan and vote you out?

Because its a lost game. I know when games that have a chance of winning at this stage, and this isn't one of them.
I'm not sure how I can tell someone to do something other than exactly what I would in their position.

The only way that today was going to be a win is if Raya was scum and I was shot from Samantha last night.

Mechanically you're never scum here. Scum do not have the need to find masks, but instead they want to find roles.
Masks have a down side so it's beneficial to scum for town to use masks early. This is why there's no need to locate them as scum.
You won't convince me otherwise here either.

No fade would be worthless here as well.

Is the only actual reason you're sure willow is town the claim? Because that feels like incredibly lazy reasoning.

[Retti]

Like, yes, ok, scum rolecop flipped, but willow did not actually tell us anything we didn't already know when he claimed, so it's not like his role is confirmed in that regard. Not even considering it could be a fakeclaim seems fairly suspect? Like your mind is locked into just accepting that it's real b/c you know it is

[Retti]

(and to be clear that is not me expressing suspicion toward willow but critiquing VFP's logic)

[Retti]

Like, IDK man, if you're town here, actually try to solve? go ahead and case me, do something rather than waving the white flag

[Retti]

the virgin Retti:
wracked with doubt
is scared of willow
"m-maybe I should reread"
pees self constantly

the chad VFP:
has already made up his mind
doesn't feel the need to convince anyone
"I know when games that have a chance of winning at this stage, and this isn't one of them"
gives absolutely no fucks at all

[Retti]

Sorry, it's been a long fucking day, for reasons unrelated to this game

[Retti]

-tring raya 4 "just vote me" stuff but not vfp is weird to me

Raya dropped it out first and VFP largely echoed it, in that situation being the first to step forward with that sort of self-sacrifice line is towny but repeating it less so because scum will feel obligated to echo it to fit in and if you're one of multiple people saying it people are less likely to call your bluff

-iirc your progression on jjh is ehhhhhh

IIRC I had him as null-scum for most of the game. Which, admittedly, is probably where I'd put a partner who was playing like that but meh. I wouldn't say anything with jjh is really clearing for me but I don't feel like that was a bad read on my part anywhere.

-raya flipoff on a dime

I wish I had a good explanation for this but I work mostly off the top of my head in games and it was forever ago, even looking back now I'm not sure what changed my mind, like I wish I could just point at some post and bullshit an answer but I have to tell he truth here

-duels you didn't have much other choice

This is true, BUT: I ambushed RMH right when he entered the game and forced him into a bad claim where I easily could have given him warning for what I was doing and had him claim something that wouldn't immediately out him as scum. You could argue roberts a troll and wouldn't have cooperated, I guess, but I literally didn't leave him any time to be coached on a fakeclaim which I absolutely would have done in that situation as scum.

[Retti]

Yeah, I tried to reread some but my view is always gonna be the same because I know my conclusion before I start: I'm okay with losing to willow, I'm not ok with losing to VFP, and that colors the framework I view everything from. So let's get this started.

duel: VFP

[Retti]

at this point while i can hypothetically see you playing the best mechanically executed scumgame of ur life

This would actually be a fucking horrible scumgame for me mechanically in the sense the tracker would have caught both of my teammates when neither had any business carrying the kill (this is also another reason I am town)

[Retti]

UNVOTE:

oh yeah the one thing I actually needed to check

When specifically were you given setup info+what was the exact condition for gaining it

The condition for getting setup info was executing someone with my duel and I got it the night after I dueled someone

[Retti]

that is actually such a good point lmfao why would we not be making the kills

anyway i guess last housekeeping thing would be doublecheck the info w/r/t flea clear?

i know i need to check the info claim lining up but that's it

LMAO that would be so awkward if I was like "oh whoops flea isn't clear" AFTER i start the duel

But no, I went back and checked the PM just to be sure and it says, in not exact words, that there are 6 town-aligned players with masks

[Retti]

retti can you explain why i am significantly more town than vfp in your eyes

im curious about range here specifically, this is a rather remarkable scumgame if it's vfp

I wouldn't say you're significantly more town. There's always doubt. But I didn't see any universe where I'd have good reason to vote you over him here so I'm going with what my feelings were yesterday, because the narrative for him being scum makes more sense to me than the one for you being scum.

I don't see how it would a remarkable scumgame from him at all, really. The stuff you were calling townish from him yesterday is fairly trivial to fake, it's not like he had some super-town analysis at any point, interactins with flipped scum are almost nonexistent, all the stuff I had against him yesterday still stands, really.

[Retti]

VOTE: VFP

[Retti]

i strongly disgree with 2566 on every front and i should be tearing into you for it

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

townniest thing you've said this game

[Retti]

flea, he's scum, this is basically a concession

[Retti]

Dude, I literally cannot say anything toward this line of questioning without risking a modkill

[Retti]

Like fucking think for a second, please

[Retti]

Anyway, I've only read like 8 chapters because it wasn't my bag, but aren't most of the mask characters explicitly antagonistic, including the ones who have flipped as town in the OP? Like jesus christ flavor is clearly not 1:1 here

[Retti]

every day I decide whether to read manga or play mafia and I always make the wrong choice

[Retti]

If you actually threw the game over role-based flavor spec I would fucking never let you live it down though

[Retti]

at least now im confirmed town b/c oh god why would I read this as scum

maybe you're just hornt for the anime tiddy

[Retti]

I SWEAR TO FUCKING GOD DUDE

[Retti]

i hate you

[Retti]

I was not, if I were I would've claimed it

[Retti]

[Retti]

it's not quite who let the dogs out but it's onbrand so ill give u a pass

That was my first instinct before I decided to not give a serious answer

[Retti]

and I had been looking for an excuse to post that

[Retti]

Can't resist the shitpost

[Retti]

bro 45 minutes passed move on and get a life lmao

No

[Retti]

Flea, for god's sake. What do you expect will happen on a no fade? We're not going to have the mechanics solve the game for us magically. It's not going to happen. We're not going to learn anything we don't already know. All the information available to decide the game is in front of us here and now.

You've spent the past week as clear mostly forgetting the information we've already learned and making gestures about doing things and then...not actually doing anything. If you disagree with the vote and think it's me then say so, at least fucking TALK TO ME so we can get to the root of WHY, but just hanging back and being cryptic and spacing out isn't useful and it's incredibly aggravating to deal with

[Retti]

I'm town. unless willow is doing the big troll, we're good

[Retti]

Just curious, what would have happened if I had used my mask?

[Retti]

Anyway, a win's a win, but not really satisfied with this, and that's entirely on me, not my teammates or the town. I felt like I was incredibly sloppy in a number of areas, didn't get along well with my team, made mistakes with my night actions, and slipped up a number of times. It's not really the sort of game I want to play and I feel like I can do better. I mean, really, if you look at the scoreboard, town only misfaded twice to three scum elims. I wasn't able to push town elims at all. I only really succeeded because I got incredibly lucky in terms of some fortunate vig shots - replay this and I probably lose 95% of the time with the way I played.


I'm just glad it's over.

[Retti]

Oh, and Bell doing a tactical replaceout across multiple games because he didn't want to play scum was disgusting and I'm still pissed off about it. I don't think it was ever going to be possible to recover from the hole he put that slot in.

[Retti]

the irony is that the antitown downsides of the masks set town back when town was likely going to cruise to a win on dayplay regardless - the extra kills from sam were obvious, but the poison was from dunn's mask, not anything i did (flea gave scum a 1-shot vanillize that didn't matter obviously)

conceptually that's interesting in the sense that a chunk of the town PRs are tied to a downside which reduces swing but the downside might have been a bit steep here

[Retti]

I wouldn't say that, I think town had plenty of power, it was a matter of how it got used that wound up hurting it

[Retti]

Doesn't matter if you catch me, have to fade me

[Retti]

I will admit however it was my fault for playing two games at once while adjusting to my job. I had to prioritize and I regret overestimating myself. But I did not replace out because I don't want to play scum.

Wild how your schedule cleared up just in time for you to draw a town role. Crazy how that happens. I'm sure it's just a coincidence though, haha.

[Retti]

Only thing worse than a bad loser is a sour winner Retti...

I have been specifically trying to not tear down other members of my team or the town as I don't have quarrel with anyone else. But, point taken. I'll drop the subject.

Thanks Maria for modding.

Well played Retti, well deserved.
So what was the poison?

The poison was a reward for Dunn using his mask. I'm curious what the other masks would have done as downsides, hopefully Maria posts them at some point.

[Retti]

I will say since this gained a lot of talk Samantha's mask was designed with the idea it'd be used with 1 mafia alive later in the game...clearly not what happened. The mask is super swingy yes, but it can also be a major swing for town to find a deep wolf. Funny enough this game was all about swing too!

I wanted people who got mask to really think of the risk and reward of using such a mask at any given time given as a last resort type of deal. Punishing people who just put their mask on for no reason. Is that how it played out? Well, that's up for debate. I do hope you all enjoyed the setup regardless.

As said earlier, I think it's a really great concept, yeah. Thanks for modding.