Micro 1020: To Tell the Truth [Game over]

[Dwlee99]

You know why scum picks two town? Because "town or town" (the most likely outcome) is hella easy to just go "wow we learned nothing from that!) And then if you get a guilty then you can hop in thread and go "well mathematically it just makes sense that they're scum"

Pedit: homie do you think I told Pooky to hammer in our PT and then acted surprised by it?

[Dwlee99]

MURDERCAT I feel like you when you correctly read LLD and were killed for it

[Infinity 324]

And "misreps about the math" :shifty:

Your 3/8 thing is like, yes clidd could've been guiltied too but he wasn't so that's not relevant. Assuming you're town there was a 3/16 chance you'd be guiltied. If you are town, /shrug. It happens. To me it's pretty clearly optimal to lim you.

PEdit: well you learn that those 2 players are less likely to be scum. And I think the chance is high enough that scum decided to wine that I'm still ok with this.

[Datisi]

Maybe it's Pooky + Arc + Dwlee.

is it bad that i have like, this exact team as my current hero solve?

hey clidd, glad to see you. can you tell me what gives you townpings on me and pav?

also i'm not in a great mood tonight which is making me be very demotivated for mafia so i'm probably gonna peace out for the night and try again after getting some sleep.

[Dwlee99]

And there was a 3/16 chance clidd would have been guiltied too...

[Dwlee99]

Like infinity you know that in half of all scenarios the alignment I get shown as isn't alignment indicative at all?

[Dwlee99]

Maybe it's Pooky + Arc + Dwlee.

If we agree on arc then let's go there?

[Infinity 324]

And there was a 3/16 chance clidd would have been guiltied too...

Again, this didn't happen so it's irrelevant

Like infinity you know that in half of all scenarios the alignment I get shown as isn't alignment indicative at all?

And in half of scenarios you're confirmed scum

[Dwlee99]

Actually in zero scenarios I'm confirmed scum

[Dwlee99]

Your 50/50 thing doesn't even make sense because from my point of view you have a 50% chance of being scum. Okay guess I'll just throw you out the nearest window then

[Infinity 324]

Everyone has a 3/7 chance of being scum fypov

Fmpov the chance that you are scum is 11/16 but it's actually more because I didn't exclude myself

I'm done with this conversation

[MURDERCAT]

Massclaim?
I'll go first, townie.
VOTE: infinity

VOTE: T3
Okay E-1 this

X:01

VOTE: t3

2nd page still decent

X:04

It was literally 3 minutes apart, yes I think it was coordinated

[clidd]

Maybe it's Pooky + Arc + Dwlee.

is it bad that i have like, this exact team as my current hero solve?

hey clidd, glad to see you. can you tell me what gives you townpings on me and pav?

also i'm not in a great mood tonight which is making me be very demotivated for mafia so i'm probably gonna peace out for the night and try again after getting some sleep.

I don't expect to be correct about this (mafia is a difficult game), but with current impressions, it's the solve that makes the most sense.

The townpings on you were mostly because of the way Pooky interacted with you (which sounded like TvS, but with Pooky being the scum side). Regarding Pav, it's basically because he's a newbie (not an alt) and I've noticed his interaction with the game to be more relaxed than I'd expect from scum!newbie (if this were his first scumgame), but it's quite possible that I could be wrong in this read. Regardless, Arc fits as more scummy to me than he does in the solve above, so I wouldn't care much if the town!he thesis is correct even though I'm using a bad assessment to come to that conclusion.

It's fine, I hope you'll get better later (good night).

[clidd]

Maybe it's Pooky + Arc + Dwlee.

If we agree on arc then let's go there?

I want to talk to Pooky first. Depending on whether my read on him is right or not, the rest of my reads can change (and my vote too).

[Dwlee99]

Everyone has a 3/7 chance of being scum fypov

Fmpov the chance that you are scum is 11/16 but it's actually more because I didn't exclude myself

I'm done with this conversation

No, Clidd is conftown and remove me that is 3/6.

[Dwlee99]

Massclaim?
I'll go first, townie.
VOTE: infinity

VOTE: T3
Okay E-1 this

X:01

VOTE: t3

2nd page still decent

X:04

It was literally 3 minutes apart, yes I think it was coordinated

Maybe it's Pooky + Arc + Dwlee.

If we agree on arc then let's go there?

I want to talk to Pooky first. Depending on whether my read on him is right or not, the rest of my reads can change (and my vote too).

How does Pooky alignment impact arc?

Also I'm sorry for being snippy about this math conversation ftr but I'm sure you'd all be annoyed if people were acting like you've been nailed as scum because of a 3/8 chance on a scum decision while the person who orchestrated it is open wolfing.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Massclaim?
I'll go first, townie.
VOTE: infinity

VOTE: T3
Okay E-1 this

X:01

VOTE: t3

2nd page still decent

X:04

It was literally 3 minutes apart, yes I think it was coordinated

r u srs dude im not an imbecile

[Infinity 324]

No, Clidd is conftown and remove me that is 3/6.

If I treat clidd as conftown that makes you more likely to be scum not less

[Dwlee99]

Well you can't treat Clidd as conftown if you think the result on me was the truthful one.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if i was in the scum pt coordinating with my homie d-lee to quick-hammer T3 on Page 2,

I'd be like, "let's vote him at the exact same time" and then we can pretend it's an accident

and then we'd be on discord counting down like nerds.

you cant seriously think I'd be an incompetent buffoon

[Infinity 324]

I'm sure you'd all be annoyed if people were acting like you've been nailed as scum because of a 3/8 chance on a scum decision while the person who orchestrated it is open wolfing.

No I'd pretty much understand it tbh. If you get unlucky you get unlucky

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

113 - Why is Infinity town to you?

infinity is in her town!meta

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i mean you know what im talking about so why are u even asking me this

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

106 - Why scum!Datisi ''planning the push'' vs town!you would be more likely than town!Datisi finding your hammer questionable/scummy? I mean, you haven't tried to meaningfully engage with T3 (before the final vote) and you haven't given any advance notice that you were going to hammer. Just trying to understand your process here.

cuz he knows scum me doesnt quickhammer on page 2

[Dwlee99]

if i was in the scum pt coordinating with my homie d-lee to quick-hammer T3 on Page 2,

I'd be like, "let's vote him at the exact same time" and then we can pretend it's an accident

and then we'd be on discord counting down like nerds.

you cant seriously think I'd be an incompetent buffoon

I love you pooky