Micro 1020: To Tell the Truth [Game over]

[Pavowski]

That being said I should probably stay out of the discussion of all maths, I was a Fine Arts major after all

[Infinity 324]

3/16 * 5/8 / (3/8) = 5/16

This is the probability that someone is town given a guilty. The probability that they're scum is 11/16 which is about 69%

[Infinity 324]

Murdercat trying to strongarm a dwlee elim based on math seems like a possibility but not a very strong one imo. Murder doesn't seem like he's in powerwolf mode (and generally doesn't seem like the type to powerwolf). Also if clidd was the one with the guilty I don't think it would seem at all plausible to get that lim through. The most likely murder!scum possibility is that murder is hiding behind a math push to avoid scumhunting.

[Dwlee99]

Infinity do you remember the C9++ game?

[Infinity 324]

Yes

[Dwlee99]

Earlier you were saying that it makes sense for scum to pick Clidd cause he will obvtown, but what do you think about scum picking me based on that game?

[Infinity 324]

Pooky and datisi were the only other players here in that game yeah?

I'm not sure why c9++ would make scum want to put you on the list

[Dwlee99]

I mean based on my play. Like does my town playstyle make you think anything about why scum would pick me here?

[Infinity 324]

Not really? I still think scum would try to pick obvtownies to avoid giving town info. Not sure what you're getting at here

[Dwlee99]

Okay we seem to be on completely different pages about my performance in C9++.

[Datisi]

3/16 * 5/8 / (3/8) = 5/16

This is the probability that someone is town given a guilty. The probability that they're scum is 11/16 which is about 69%

so i googled the thing, did the math myself, had different numbers, but somehow also got to 11/16 so i guess

the reason why i don't want to focus solely on "math" here is because i keep thinking of a secret hitler game i modded this last marathon. the game was steadily going towards a liberal (town) victory, and then there were two liberal governments that played fascist policies, and the game descended into chaos, because the most townread players passed fascist cards, and the only way for that to not have happened if they were town was if there were 6 fascist cards in the deck in a row. they calculated the odds of that happening, ~9%. so there must be a deepwolf. all while i was staring at the random.org rand that spat out 6 fascist cards in a row. town promptly lost that game.

i can agree that angel doesn't seem like a likely pooky partner (though i'd have to recheck if she had any other options, or if that vote was a "fuck, my other suspects are town, i have to bus here" - but that would mean she was consciously faking not knowing about the setup and voting pooky based on that, which ehh why did she not unvote pooky then?)

uuugh my head hurts. is something like mc/pooky/pav viable? maybe it is? i want to be confident on infy!town but i don't actually know the extent of her scumrange which is annoying. something rings wrong about her focusing so hard on that guilty but i feel like everyone in this game has said/done scummy shit

except for clidd, he's probably scum because he's done no scummy shit and the world hates me

[Infinity 324]

the reason why i don't want to focus solely on "math" here is because i keep thinking of a secret hitler game i modded this last marathon. the game was steadily going towards a liberal (town) victory, and then there were two liberal governments that played fascist policies, and the game descended into chaos, because the most townread players passed fascist cards, and the only way for that to not have happened if they were town was if there were 6 fascist cards in the deck in a row. they calculated the odds of that happening, ~9%. so there must be a deepwolf. all while i was staring at the random.org rand that spat out 6 fascist cards in a row. town promptly lost that game.

Yeah sometimes that'll happen. Idk. I'm not confident in anyone's ability to read people much more often than random, so I try to trust mechanical evidence, it doesn't really come up that often though and it feels intuitively weird so maybe I don't do it when I should sometimes.

@dwlee Yeah for me you sort of were there and tunneling people, honestly I didn't pay that much attention to you in that game

[clidd]

I'm leaning to vote/elim inside the pool of {Pooky/MC} today. Angel's iso is bad, but she can still be some kind of lhf (compared to the rest). Not sure what I think about Infinity (null) but not seeing an elim there. Pav slightly towny, Dwlee and Datisi are towny (play).

[Pavowski]

3/16 * 5/8 / (3/8) = 5/16

This is the probability that someone is town given a guilty. The probability that they're scum is 11/16 which is about 69%

so i googled the thing, did the math myself, had different numbers, but somehow also got to 11/16 so i guess

the reason why i don't want to focus solely on "math" here is because i keep thinking of a secret hitler game i modded this last marathon. the game was steadily going towards a liberal (town) victory, and then there were two liberal governments that played fascist policies, and the game descended into chaos, because the most townread players passed fascist cards, and the only way for that to not have happened if they were town was if there were 6 fascist cards in the deck in a row. they calculated the odds of that happening, ~9%. so there must be a deepwolf. all while i was staring at the random.org rand that spat out 6 fascist cards in a row. town promptly lost that game.

i can agree that angel doesn't seem like a likely pooky partner (though i'd have to recheck if she had any other options, or if that vote was a "fuck, my other suspects are town, i have to bus here" - but that would mean she was consciously faking not knowing about the setup and voting pooky based on that, which ehh why did she not unvote pooky then?)

uuugh my head hurts. is something like mc/pooky/pav viable? maybe it is? i want to be confident on infy!town but i don't actually know the extent of her scumrange which is annoying. something rings wrong about her focusing so hard on that guilty but i feel like everyone in this game has said/done scummy shit

except for clidd, he's probably scum because he's done no scummy shit and the world hates me

This is why I'm keeping an eye on Clidd; because I have zero actual reasons to

(although I highly approve all the Sherlock imagery)

[clidd]

[Dwlee99]

Vote MC all the cool kids are doing it.

[clidd]

VOTE: MURDERCAT

[clidd]

Both of Pooky and MC are on E-2 now.

[Datisi]

not opposed to mc in a vacuum, though i guess i'm getting worried about the similar problem of "who's their partner?". mostly because pooky is voting there and doesn't pooky have like a sacred oath of not bussing or something.

dwlee, you done the thinking of who could and couldn't be mc's partners here?

[Dwlee99]

I could see a plausible argument for anyone other than me and Clidd tbh. Most sold on arc and then one of pav or Pooky cause someone on the team is probably gonna bus.

[clidd]

Town and scum are probably mixed together in the ''coasting/doing scummy stuff'' pool, which is why the associations don't seem so clear.

It would be easier if everyone demonstrated a significant level of engagement with the game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

MC/Datisi and then Pav or Angel

this game is over lets go go go

[clidd]

So Datisi isn't towny to you? ^

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i've never misread datisi in my life

[Datisi]

can't misread me when you know i'm town (: