we are not but i have nightmares where it's infy/pooky and this flips green and the two of them convince clidd and you to yeet me tomorrow
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
In post 655, Dwlee99 wrote:Clidd which is more likely, a pav/infinity team or a Pooky/dats team. Feel free to also introduce thinking that say pooky/pav aren't a team or something.
Pav is like, meh, but I do think that his delay of vote was probably +town in the sense of not realizing that Infinity was always scum by PoE if he didn't believe in the pooky/datisi scumteam.
In post 48, Infinity 324 wrote:Clidd being town is probably true just probabilistically and also clidd seems like a player who's gonna obvtown so it makes sense for scum to choose town!clidd.
Dwlee I'm less sure on. In general I think mafia would tend to choose townies to avoid soft guilties, but town!dwlee doesn't seem like a player who would obvtown very much so scum are less likely to choose him for fear of giving town info. Anyone know what their scumgame is like?
And this sounds like tmi ^
I don't think it was possible for anyone to figure ou what kind of planning scum had in mind for the picks that early. The way Infinity said here doesn't seem like a deductive thinking but a reformulation of something that already exists (ie, that she knows).
In post 49, Infinity 324 wrote:If clidd is scum, the chance that he would be named as town is 1/2 * 6/8 = 3/8. My intuition says that the probability he's scum would go down to 3/8 ÷ (3/8 + 3), or 1/9. If someone knows stats they can correct me on that.
If dwlee is town, the probability that they'd be named as scum is 1/2 * 2/8 = 1/8. Again, my intuition says that the probability that they're town is 3/8 ÷ (3/8 + 1) = 3/11. Wow that's really low. I hate it but I think the correct play is to elim dwlee and not think about the wine too much.
In post 53, Dwlee99 wrote:Clidd is conftown and infinity is weird champ for suggesting that we just kill me based on probability. I don't even know if the math is right but I have to double check it.
Is it weird to want to vote someone who has a 73% chance of being scum?
Even if my math is wrong it's very unlikely that a townie gets named as mafia
In post 76, MURDERCAT wrote:independent probability of a guilty on a townie (3/8)
This should be independent probability of a guilty yeah?
I got the same answer as you by doing a weighted average is there a simpler way to do it
Anyway
3/16 * 5/8 / (3/8) = 5/16
I'm not gonna include the clidd math because that's too complicated
It's still lower than the probability of pooky being town given a quickhammer given any reasonable inputs. It's funny cause it seems like datisi seems like he's doing a Bayes theorem calculation in his head but if I knew what numbers he was putting into that I'd be pretty appalled. Town can quickhammer too
In post 92, Datisi wrote:"town can quickhammer" yeah sure. give me some proof that town!pooky would be that much of an ass to catapult someone 26 posts into the game. alternatively give me proof that pooky actually thought t3 had a decent amount of scum equity. without either of those, pooky is so much more likely to be scum, and this should be a no-brainer
I shouldn't need to come up with a plausible-sounding town motivation to argue that pooky has less than a 70% chance of being scum here. Of course it's bad play as town but like, come on. No play-based info will give someone a 70% chance of being scum, 50% would be generous.
Yeah you are right, I started with an assumption that they are town so that makes it weird when I calculate the probability they are town...
The actual calculation including all scenarios and T3 town is actually way harder than I thought and you need to make an assumption about the likelihood scum puts in 0, 1, and 2 townies
Sure, I just calculated the weighted average of dwlee getting a guilty as town and as mafia. I don't know if I did the same thing as you but I still got 3/8. Obviously you could get more precise if you wanted to and made more assumptions but I won't
"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
surely, SURELY this isn't some dumb fuckery like pooky/dwlee
like surely the universe doesn't hate me THAT much
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
which one of you fucks is throwing right now oh my god
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
Day 5 will dawn in (expired on 2021-07-17 21:45:00).
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
