In post 902, Facebones wrote:Molly/MT isn't scum because if she was, she wouldn't try to incriminate Wright so much (I assume they've played together before?) so early. Even if they've not played before, she saw how it was going to go down and didn't shy away, but dug her heels in.
I don't think scum!Molly would've gone through all that effort and drawn that much attention to herself
I was a bit suspicious of WJ and thought it would be right in their nature as scum to bus their partner, but IV sort've touched on that and WJ's reaction to it made me change my mind
In hindsight, it makes no sense that scum WJ provided an alternate wagon to town!me yesterday and ultimately get her scum buddy elimmed, even more so seeing Alice wasn't on anyone elses radar
Why would WJ do that if scum with Alice?
That does not make sense
I might not agree with some of the ways they've gone about their game, but it did come across as genuine frustration including all the times WJ told Molly to look elsewhere
So that's one TvT hood done from my point of view
We all know how Andre/Alice turned out
IV I've been mad suspicious of ever since the claim, and questioned his alliance several times in our special room. Since that claim, he's been cool, calm, collected, is going into a lot of things with an open mind, trying to view all aspects of the game and see what pieces fit where and attempting to solve this puzzle
The mathematics says the chances of IV being mafia is 33%
Taking into consideration the ways he's gone about playing the game I'd say it's even less
Which leaves us with Flea, T3 and Mx. Slick as the last hood and the FN
On the first and second page, T3 and Mx. Slick's interactions were strange for me, and the way Mx. Slick was questioning WJ about T3 lead me to believe they were the final hood, meaning Flea was the FN
I asked Mx. Slick a couple of questions, he seemed to be more than willing to answer, explain and elaborate
I asked T3 a couple of questions, he did not seem to willing to explain and elaborate
Then the votes happened and Alice turned scum, and that's what's conflicting me the most right now
Mx. Slick, the person who I thought was the most towny out of the players remaining, was not voting for scum
T3, the person who I thought was the scummiest was 2nd in line to vote Alice
The person who I thought was FN (Flea) hopped on the wagon once it had started gaining momentum, and voted Alice with this
In post 660, Flea The Magician wrote:VOTE: AliceK
Get yo ass in here and give the promised content. Longer you wait the more I expect my mind to be blown.
Which is pinging the hell outta me
Although MT made some good points about the actual direction and strength of the scum reads, this post reveals a potential game plan perspective for scum!Facebones which the rest of his Day 2 posts and his progression on IV falls in.
He basically has a pool of 3 people with the caveat that one is FN, so effectively two real targets for a mis-elim. Scum!Facebones needs three in order to win. Even if he convinces town to elim those two, he has to backtrack on the other reads he has presented: namely his town reads on either WJ or IV. Likely IV if it came down to it, as attacking town!WJ in last-elim would result in WJ voting them 9/10 times because that's dkobba for ya. In such a case I'd predict the following plan:
D2: Elim Holden/Porky/T3 seed doubt in IV
NK2: FN claim from the three forced by his discussion
D3: Elim other person in Holden/Porky/T3 trio; start undoing read on IV
NK3: one of MT/WJ (likely MT at this junction)
D4: Last-Elim with one of MT/WJ + IV + FB, Push IV to win
Which if you look at his posts since D2 began (and the bold above):
In post 891, Facebones wrote:IF SCUM DID BUS
I'm suspicious of T3 (I've asked him a couple of questions and he's given me nothing answers and I'm not a fan of the "best to try to solve around him" logic), although he was the second to vote Alice, he just hasn't been willing to cooperate I guess? Everyone else seems to think he's town though, and being second on the wagon is kind of hard to ignore so I'll say he's town for now
I'm about 80% sure IV is town at this point, but I keep getting a weird naggling feeling about how both him and Alice felt the need to treat the hood PT as a confessional. Town for now
Which leaves Flea. I've only played with faem twice, maybe three times? Both times fae were town, and I've no idea how fae play as scum. I don't like how late fae were on the Alice wagon.
In post 842, Facebones wrote:If Molly was scum, would they really be willing to put themselves in the headlights so blatantly?
It does come across to me as a genuinely frustrated towny, but she might just be a good actress
Another possibility is IV hammered his team mate for the towny cred once Alice got to E-1 and he realised my elim wasn't happening
He's handling IV slot already in that manner for a potential flip D3. Most of his logic presented this day phase hasn't actually explained much of why IV is still town for him post Alice flip expect for
902's general remark on IV's overall playstyle. This is in contrast to how he goes about explaining WJ and Mollie in these posts. With them, Facebones made sure to provide specific details over his analysis of the Alice interactions to support why they are town. IV doesn't have this, and even with this post filled of interactions with Alice FB chooses not to include earlier statements he made about possible connections IV has with scum!alice. In fact, the only mention I could find of any other reasoning to town read IV was back in day one:
In post 568, Facebones wrote:I'm pretty sure IV was just either just taking the piss or doing a reaction test thing in our hood when he admitted to being mafia and junk in the first 3 posts.
That plus putting himself on E-1 on D1 and the frustration has him in the town pile for now
WHICH he has expressed doubt over the underline this day phase with
891, re-contextualizing what he thought was a reaction test to be a thread with Alice. As such, their only reasoning left that I can trace is IV's day 1 implosion and self vote combined with his general tone.
But after this post day 1...
In post 730, Facebones wrote:Do you think it's possible that IV is scum here?
If IV was town, would scum let them off the hook so quickly after getting them to turn suicidal and being one vote away from hammer?
There was no follow up to this post by FB. So either town!Facebone was merely probing for more information on IV to sure up his read, or scum!facebones is purposely keeping that avenue open because his partner was likely to get elim through proxy of asking the question. In following Facebone's read on IV, I really don't see why FB has him as town. Time after time again, he expresses doubt or undermines IV's read left and right. If that was the case, then wouldn't it be a town lean at most? Not the "80%" he stated earlier? There is so much undirected doubt here it doesn't feel townie. Rather, I really think Facebone is scum and has selected their method to win the game via mis-eliming the VT's in the after mention trio and flipping on his hood partner.
VOTE: Facebones
Imma keep reading but that's a nail for me. Too much makes sense coming from a scum!facebones perspective in the original post quoted.