Open 837: Cop Killer - Endgame

[Bingle]

I demand that A50 cop check himself. I’ve gotten a mislim on a cop cleared A50 while the cop was still alive. But I’ve never gotten a mislim on A50 while he was a cop that was cleared and also an IC. Winning the game is nowhere near as important.

[Bingle]

Why not vote me then?

VOTE: GL

Why am I voting you?

[Bingle]

Kinda bummed you're IC A50, would've been fun sorting you.

Not really. All you have to do is wait for me to sort him and then sheep. It’s pretty easy. I’m sure I’ll have a read on A50 sometime before D3.

[Bingle]

You're approaching LAL territory with this statement. I am the top poster of this game as we speak, and I have yet to say one meaningful word.

Going on 54 years now, we’re doubtful it’ll ever happen.

[Bingle]

So far I have but only one TR, and it's not even that strong, so I'll let you all play it out a little and see where it gets us

It’s a little premature to be townreading me. We should wait until day 3 or four to fakeclaiming masons.

[Bingle]

Why not vote me then?

VOTE: GL

Why am I voting you?

Do you also scumread my intro post for being somewhat rote?

I’m reading backwards. I’ve literally just read your post and found the case to be compelling.

[Bingle]

Monkelite.

Almsat?? You think I'm a satellite?

Is this the Space Monkey Mafia the prophet Billy Joel foretold?

[Bingle]

Who is Innocent Child then?

No, Who doesn’t play mafia any more. A50 is the child.

[Bingle]

It’s a little premature to be townreading me. We should wait until day 3 or four to fakeclaiming masons.

You should've let me know about your grandiose plan in the PT beforehand.

I did though. Don’t you remember me bribing NM with $10 to announce you as IC so that when the cop checked you we could get them eliminated?

[Bingle]

Aight, mech stuff:


A50 gets all hammers. He should check to make sure NM is around when doing so to prevent scum from twilight strategizing.

We should policy eliminate all posts that look like attempts at coordinating nightkills, even very obvious joke ones, because letting the scum talk to each other puts us at a severe disadvantage.

A50 should say who he’s going to target each night so long as the doc remains hidden for the purposes of WIFOM protection.

Doc claims should be left alive in all circumstances. If they’re fake, the real doc will probably shoot them. If they’re real the scum won’t shoot them because of the possibility of the real doc shooting them (neither team will know if it’s a real or fakeclaim) and we should be able to work backwards from number of kills to determine whether they were real or not.

[Bingle]

O shit Bingle’s in this game too?

Hey!!

Nope. I’m in another game that just so happens to be taking place in the same thread. We’re playing parchisi. What about you?

[Bingle]

Actually, Bingle, why should A50 claim with there being a CPR doc? Shouldn’t the doc only have one person to worry about saving (A50).

Not to mention if it’s so that way we have an idea of who to hold responsible in the event of A50 dying, couldn’t that also be used against us?

Not interested in having this discussion at all.

A50 will make the decision or he won't, that's all there is to say on the matter. Further discussion of this is only likely to inform the mafia. If it becomes relevant I can explain the why on day 4 or so or in the post game after I'm dead.

All you have to do is trust in the Bingle meta that I believe there is a protown reason for me to advocate that course of action, regardless of my alignment.

[Bingle]

POV: Bingle acts like everyone else is idiots.

Correction, Bingle acts like everyone is idiots.

Everyone else assumes that I don't think I myself am an idiot.

[Bingle]

OH! I've just realized my new title has been implemented. I don't know how long it's been there but I didn't see it until NOW!

By the property of Monkey See, Monkey Do does that mean you're going to start a company now?

[Bingle]

I was gonna catch up and be useful, but all of the colors are bleeding together. I promise that I'll either catch up tomorrow. Maybe.

[Bingle]

Unlike last night, I don't have a legitimate reason to not catch up. I just don't want to. Deal with it, nerds. (Seriously though, I promise to get to this and actually provide content when I'm in a better mafia headspace.)

[Bingle]

im happy to say "actually i think cop should investigate doc claims" and leave it at that.

A50 absolutely shouldn’t do this.

[Bingle]

does this mean we should also treat deadlines as slightly shorter than they are? like, this is definitely correct for the most part, but risks no-hammer if the wagon only builds up close to deadline.

Going all the way to deadline is always a bad idea.

[Bingle]

This is over aggro. Sort of feels fake.

being fair to Roden, I basically challenged him in my last post to go at me, so I'm not surprised to see him bite back. What I'd like to actually hear from him though is why he thinks my behavior is more likely to come from me as scum than me as town, because that's what's missing

Scum post.

[Bingle]

How many votes

Roden

has btw?

I'm like want to vote them, also don't want to vote them at the same time

my one main salient takeaway from the LQ/Roden bit is that both are making dubious claims on one particular front

Roden in 205 asks LQ if LQ thinks Roden "purposefully puts himself in this situation as scum". Again I think Roden is questionably taking credit for something that I feel I'm responsible for (early wagon/pressure on Roden). The logic of "why would I get wagoned as scum" isn't easy to understand from either a town/scum perspective, it's not clear what Roden specifically thinks that he did to get himself wagoned and whether that was intentional. However I have seen both alignments make the "I wouldn't be wagoned if I were scum here" claim, it's not something I feel comfortable reasoning about as AI but I certainly don't townread it, at best it's WIFOMy.

However, Roden has a point in 209 that LQ agreeing that scum!Roden might indeed intentionally "put himself in this situation" is also a bad take. Scum do not love early scrutiny, in almost any circumstance. I don't see LQ's logic in implying that this COULD be a scum plan - again, how and where did Roden even intentionally invite pressure on himself? Whatever Roden's alignment is, I'm sure he'd rather not be voted and rather not have to argue with people voting him.

I can see what LQ is saying in that LQ just kinda went along with an idea (being intentionally wagoned) that Roden put out there, but it's just such bad reasoning on both sides ("if I were scum, I wouldn't be wagoned") ("no, if you were scum, this might be your plan!!") that I'm having a hard time parsing why either player is taking any of the logic seriously.

Hm. Still don’t like GL’s entry. Also firmly disagree with P2, and don’t think GL believes it either. Early scrutiny is great for above average scum because it’s not likely to actually go places and it helps explain why you’re not dead in the late game. Also, classic “that’s town because it mirrors NAI/scummy thing I’m doing” here.

[Bingle]

Oh the salsa post is also very scummy.

Regardless of whether roden/LQ is t/s t/t s/s or m/w, there’s definitely scum in the cheerleaders. Other potential takers on that pool are T3 and pav from what I’ve seen so far.

LQ is being surprisingly readable/reasonable given the amount of complaining I saw while p dodging. Light townread there. Roden is meh. Not really scummy, but reacted poorly to baiting. Not really towny either, just kinda got pushed into this whole interaction.

Darby is pro town. Mc is either town or trying to pocket Darby. Need to poke there a bit later to see what falls out of the tree.

[Bingle]

i can see why scum!lickety would want the thread to be the way it is now; and salsabil and t3's meta read had me considering the scum vs. scum interpretation at one point. but i dont find it that compelling, i obviously cant corroborate their reads, and lickety clearly isnt the only person responsible for the state of the thread.

voicing doubts about the wagon in post #289 pings vaguely town. i dont see much reason for him to attempt to disengage as scum, he's very much "winning" as it were. the obvious reason would be "for the town cred", i guess; but scum changing a read after hard tunnelling for multiple pages is pretty gutsy imo.

Townread retracted.

[Bingle]

Don’t say that. I didn’t fully read the player list and thought I accidentally posted in a game I shouldn’t be in.

I feel like scum would be a little bit more conscious of the fact that they are playing in a game so weak townpoints for this

This is the most moon logicky post I’ve ever read. You could teach a PhD level course on moonlogic, and Titus would walk out of the room saying what the fuck just happened.

[Bingle]

Ooh Eeh Ooh Ah Aah Ting Tang Walla Walla Bing Bang
Ooh Eeh Ooh Ah Aah Ting Tang Walla Walla Bing Bang
Ooh Eeh Ooh Ah Aah Ting Tang Walla Walla Bing Bang
Ooh Eeh Ooh Ah Aah Ting Tang Walla Walla Bing Bang
DOW DOW DOW DOW DOW DOW DOW
Ooh Eeh Ooh Ah Aah Ting Tang Walla Walla Bing Bang
Ooh Eeh Ooh Ah Aah Ting Tang Walla Walla Bing Bang
Ooh Eeh Ooh Ah Aah Ting Tang Walla Walla Bing Bang
Ooh Eeh Ooh Ah Aah Ting Tang Walla Walla Bing Bang
DOW DOW DOW DOW

I wanted to get in on the quote wall.

[Bingle]

Hm. Still don’t like GL’s entry. Also firmly disagree with P2, and don’t think GL believes it either. Early scrutiny is great for above average scum because it’s not likely to actually go places and it helps explain why you’re not dead in the late game. Also, classic “that’s town because it mirrors NAI/scummy thing I’m doing” here.

I'm not really following this post at all

1) Do you think Roden is "above average scum"? If so, what is that based on? He has already claimed in the thread that this should be obviously seen as his town game - which I already pointed out means his scum game must be really bad if he honestly believes that.

2) I also just don't agree with you on "early scrutiny being great for scum". There's a vig in the setup and another scum faction who won't care if you're limmed or not. when I'm scum I always feel better when I'm coasting than when I feel like I'm expected to post and answer for the questionable shit in my ISO

3) I don't understand the last sentence at all, I don't know if it's a miscommunication or you not understanding my post. Where do you think I'm calling anyone town in that post? Did you misunderstand my point about how I don't buy Roden claiming to "put himself into this situation" - because the "situation" is literally just me and LQ grilling him for a bad early game

Mobile atm, but I can explain my thoughts later.

Basically what I don’t like about that post isn’t the takes on LQ/Roden, but what you’re using those takes to say.

The premise of “scum don’t want early scrutiny” when you’re actively making yourself a central pillar of thread activity reads as a kind of incepted lamist.

Also, scum don’t want to be obvscum in a thread with a vig, but being shit pushed? Scum LOVE being shit pushed.

[Bingle]

I promise that I'll either catch up tomorrow. Maybe.

Is their an "or" missing, OR am I missing the point?

You try to English more gooder as drunk as I was.

[Bingle]

Basically, yeah. This game I want to focus on who I town read the least {target pending}.

Are we fighting over who gets Darby’s attention? I wanna be the prettiest.

Darby, I’ve been pretty blatantly buddying a monkey and no one’s pushing me. Also I like long walks on the beach and plotting invasions of small neighboring cities.

[Bingle]

Dammit, Bingle. At least call someone a mothertrucker. Or is it too early for that?

But I don’t think anyone in the thread is involved in the trafficking of mothers yet.

At most I think people are being manipulative fuckfaces pushing roden and LQ at each other to choke the thread, but they’re not even really doing a good job of it given there aren’t 50 pages yet.

[Bingle]

Oh, also, is it too early to say DArby is thread spewed Town at this point? Because pretty sure no one has said DArby is anything below Town.

Not really a thing (scum who have a partner getting lolwtf townreads don’t particularly want to undermine said reads).

He has been very town though.

[Bingle]

Salsa always seems to have a bit of chaotic energy that I find hard to read, but I was pinging after the whole "I want to vote roden but not sure I should" thing, which is scum thinking though I don't know why it was verbalized

Why is it scum thinking - why can't town be unsure? Is there a hidden reason scum would be unsure? Is there fault with her reasoning for not being sure?

Of course town can be unsure. Town *should* be unsure.

What's scum thinking is "I've decided I want to vote this person but I'm not going to" because...? Like imo town just votes there whereas scum is a lot more concerned about how their vote "looks".

You said

Roden

wasn't verge of the elimination but they're at E-3 that time and we have 4 scums.

I wouldn't consider e-3 the verge of elimination, and if scum is willing to give the game away and quick hammer from that far out, I'd say that's worth letting somebody get quick limmed.

Townslip? Eh, either way it’s towny.

[Bingle]

You're probably right in picking up a "GL thinks making himself a pillar of thread activity is townie" vibe from my posting/arguments but that's because I authentically think that's what good townplay is supposed to be, and I think that as either alignment.

See that’s the thing. I don’t think that the pillar of town activity you is really there. I definitely see you trying to look like it’s there but your actual play just feels kind of Nothingburger.

Where is the GL townfire? Where is the grabbing the thread by the horns? Where is the three page analysis of whether Bingle actually says he hammer his partner for the loss that you freak out about two pages later and completely drop?

VOTE: Probably the disconnect on the other point is I don't think I was "shitpushing" Roden, I came at him with an early game hunch that occasionally points to scum (using a past game as a justification for your RVS vote) and then he responded poorly by discrediting me while also ignoring me, which prompted me to keep pressuring him. That's just real pushing, not shitpushing.[/quote]

Y/N this is an angle of investigation you actively believe results in a roden lim and not a preliminary push looking to gauge reactions.

[Bingle]

I feel bored, so I may decide to actually play this game seriously. (Sorry for those this may disappoint)

OK..

First "Dictatorian" Declaration:

I; King of thread and ruler of both Town & Mafia alike; have decided in all my mighty grace to

request

order all of my subjects and minions to each provide a 3-players list of their top TRs (NOT including self).

- You have 24 hours to comply.
- Once submitted you cannot alter your choices.

A50, Pav and the next person to vote me. Only somewhat tongue in cheek.

[Bingle]

A50, Pav and the next person to vote me. Only somewhat tongue in cheek.

Unacceptable for 3 reasons:

1- I am conf!Town, so it goes without saying I was asking for your reads on other players
2- The "nekst" player that votes you is an unknown quantity at this time
3- Although my post still looks like I'm shitposting I was/am dead serious. I've decided to actually play the game, so please no tongue in cheek lists

So...

The only players I'm currently townreading are Pav and Darby. Everyone else is null at best.

Also, I don't know who you are, but MY monkey loves having tongues in cheeks.

[Bingle]

the scumread on guiltylion is basically meta, right?

Only in the loosest sense. I am familiar with the way GL plays but the thrust of the argument isn’t something that requires said knowledge to evaluate. In any case, the meta aspect is that GL is a strong player and that it’s possible he would be waffly as town here because he just kinda waffles a lot.

The idea behind the argument is that the sum total of the post is posturing and things that are either NAI or scummy. Summarizing events in thread is a classic enough scum tell that it has a name, IIoA. Painting a behavior of being willing to jump into the fray as inherently town is naive, and someone with as much experience as gl certainly knows better.

[Bingle]

I mean that limming town!GL with Bingles points in mind would be scum indicative on Bingle, but if GL were NK'd I wouldn't assume Bingle was behind it.

Why would you engage in preemptive NKA in the first place though?

Like... This is just introducing so much WIFOM into the thread.

If GL gets shot here, did Bingle do it for towncred? Did scum do it trying to frame Bingle? Did the CPR doc do it trying to save GL from the scum shot that was trying to frame Bingle of either alignment?

Just posting that makes it completely useless.

[Bingle]

Hence, I don't understand how the line of questioning actually helps you sort Pav, it feels like busywork at best and at worst potentially trying to stir up "issues" with Pav that you can then use to push him.

Explicitly, I agree that questioning on this aspect doesn't help sort Pav. I'm just trying to muddy the fuck out of any signaling attempts because for fuck's sake people, scum not being able to guess what each other are thinking is one of town's primary advantages in this setup.

[Bingle]

So you did see at as signaling. GOOD. Now ACT upon it.

Okay.

VOTE: Salsa

[Bingle]

Salsa always seems to have a bit of chaotic energy that I find hard to read, but I was pinging after the whole "I want to vote roden but not sure I should" thing, which is scum thinking though I don't know why it was verbalized

Why is it scum thinking - why can't town be unsure? Is there a hidden reason scum would be unsure? Is there fault with her reasoning for not being sure?

Of course town can be unsure. Town *should* be unsure.

What's scum thinking is "I've decided I want to vote this person but I'm not going to" because...? Like imo town just votes there whereas scum is a lot more concerned about how their vote "looks".

You said

Roden

wasn't verge of the elimination but they're at E-3 that time and we have 4 scums.

I wouldn't consider e-3 the verge of elimination, and if scum is willing to give the game away and quick hammer from that far out, I'd say that's worth letting somebody get quick limmed.

Townslip? Eh, either way it’s towny.

Core of my pav read, LQ.

[Bingle]

I really dislike GLs auro takes, btw. It reads like gl is calling auro scummy for being paranoid, which is p much the exact opposite of what someone being paranoid usually indicates.

[Bingle]

I really dislike GLs auro takes, btw. It reads like gl is calling auro scummy for being paranoid, which is p much the exact opposite of what someone being paranoid usually indicates.

Bings, could you please reword this?

Sorry, yeah. It’s on my to do list I’ve just been busier than expected.

[Bingle]

UNVOTE:

[Bingle]

TBC, I’m not caught up but I at least want to get back to the GL stuff before the night phase. This is not a reflection of any change in reads, but rather of seeing discussion about hammering and hoping I can stop it.

[Bingle]

You didn't stop it actually.

I’m not sure who is in hammer range then, but can I please have 12 hours?

I mean, I know I did you dirty in sploders mafia but I got my comeuppance in not getting to explode a bird already.

[Bingle]

Sorry, passed out last night before I got to this.

Doing some Jingle stuff and then y’all are the priority.

[Bingle]

Aight here. Shotgunning to try to beat thread lock.

[Bingle]

GL v Auro:

GL is pushing the idea that auro being aggressive and assuming that someone is scum until proven otherwise is scummy, when I think that's actually just a good way to make the pressure worth something.

GL townfire isn't a reference to GL aggressively pushing someone, but rather the kind of super in depth analysis he posted (presumably) on the last few pages. Haven't actually read them for content, but they look superficially like GL townposts.

[Bingle]

Shitpush =/= push with bad logic but rather push that is poorly executed.

The distinction is small but there.

A shitpush can be based on a solid tell, but isn't likely to be compelling.
A bad push can be convincing but isn't particularly likely to be on scum (though it can be).

[Bingle]

I still think Pav is town despite the possible signaling because I think scum is likely super paranoid about posting that kind of thing and avoids it like the plague. OTOH, calling attention to something that looks superficially like signaling like name escapes me but I'm voting them did is a way to signal without being the person actually doing the signaling. It also probably ducks other scum hunting for scum signaling but dodges calling out the signaling to town in order to keep the signaling alive if it actually is. Pretty tinfoily, but I also didn't like reactions so I think it's a solid flip.

[Bingle]

Auro prob town for the opposite of the above. Signal hunting AND calling it out shows signal hunting for all of the right reasons. I also like the aggression here, and I think Auro is actively scumhunting.

Multiball, so not the end all be all of reasons to townread someone, but at the very least Auro is townsiding scum so I'm fine with leaving him around for the time being.

[Bingle]

Did I miss anything that needs to be addressed ASAP in case I die?

[Bingle]

If no one tells me about something I should prioritize I'm going to take a quick look at GL's walls, but I'm not sure exactly how long I have here.

[Bingle]

thinking that it's signaling feels to me like assuming Pav's alignment/motivations first and analyzing his post second. Like if I start from Pav being scum, could that be a signal? Maybe. Do I look at his post and think it's such clear signaling that it makes Pav more likely to be scum? No.

Looking at this while heading to wall posts in ISO, this kinda sums up some of what I was suspecting of GL, but backwards.

GL is saying Auro is scummy for assuming Pav to be scum and then continuing. I feel like GL might be scum for assuming Pav is town and then continuing. Less sure based on maybe townfire from GL. He is much more motivated to high effort as town so if that ends up being the case instead of IIoA then this is probably a playstyle thing.

[Bingle]

enchant, galron?

Don't think I have any?

I don't remember either doing anything particularly AI in this game, but I am a little checked out and only really remember the things that gave strong impressions.

Anything specific you want impressions on?

[Bingle]

Disagree theory wise but promising start.

FWIW, imo survivalism is a stronger PR tell than scumtell. I usually avoid voting out people based on survivalism on D1 if I think they might be a PR.

Also, heavily meta based.

I kinda got the impression from skimming that Salsa is showing anti PR and survivalism simultaneously so I think this is genuine scumhunting.

[Bingle]

Enchant scummy, but lives to D3 unmolested.

Dropped some pretty obvious PR tells in a way that look intentional. Would rather solve them through nightplay/associations.

[Bingle]

575 leaves me vaguely unsettled, but I'm not sure why. Like... I don't think there's anything there I find objectionable, but it just doesn't feel bleeding town like I'd expect GL effort posting to feel.

I'm getting the vague sense that GL is leaning on theory to supplement his activity, but I don't know if that's confbias from the earlier scumread.

GL, can I get a tl;dr with only conclusions you've drawn from your analysis at your earliest convenience if you live through the night?

[Bingle]

I think maybe this is why we haven't seen eye to eye on stuff. I think you can be firm with pressure without making assumptions that someone is scum. I try (though don't always succeed) to maintain the mindset that most players are likely town until there's good evidence otherwise, just based on probability/Bayesian reasoning

Sure, but people react more strongly if you treat them like they're guilty. I start the game with a bunch of suspects and try to figure out names I can trust from that.

I think I'm actually somewhere between you and Auro, in that I try to tailor whether I treat someone inno or guilty as a baseline to the individual player. For example, if you tell Nancy she's scum early she gets pissed and becomes super readable. If you try the same thing with a newbie, odds are decent they'll freak out and shut up regardless of alignment.

[Bingle]

Spoiler:

VC 1.09

Galron (0)-

Enchant (1)-

Auro

Pavowski (0)-

Almost50 (0)-

Roden (3)-

GuiltyLion, LicketyQuickety, Auro

Bingle (0)-

LicketyQuickety (1)-

Salsabil Faria

GuiltyLion (0)-

Salsabil Faria (7)-

T3, mc esther, Pavowski, Almost50, Galron, Roden, DArby

-ELIMINATED

DArby (0)-

Auro (0)-

mc esther (0)-

T3 (0)-

Not Voting (1)-

Galron

With

13

alive, it takes

7

to eliminate.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-12-07 10:00:00)

- Dec 7th 10:00 GMT

VC 1.07

Galron (0)-

Enchant (1)-

Salsabil Faria

Pavowski (0)-

Almost50 (0)-

Roden (4)-

GuiltyLion, LicketyQuickety, DArby, Auro

Bingle (0)-

LicketyQuickety (1)-

Roden

GuiltyLion (0)-

Salsabil Faria (5)-

T3, mc esther, Pavowski, Bingle, Almost50,

DArby (1)-

Enchant

Auro (0)-

mc esther (0)-

T3 (0)-

Not Voting (2)-

Galron,

With

13

alive, it takes

7

to eliminate.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-12-07 10:00:00)

- Dec 7th 10:00 GMT

VC 1.08

Galron (0)-

Enchant (0)-

Pavowski (0)-

Almost50 (0)-

Roden (3)-

GuiltyLion, LicketyQuickety, Auro

Bingle (0)-

LicketyQuickety (3)-

Roden, Salsabil Faria, DArby

GuiltyLion (0)-

Salsabil Faria (5)-

T3, mc esther, Pavowski, Almost50, Galron

(E-2)

DArby (1)-

Enchant

Auro (0)-

mc esther (0)-

T3 (0)-

Not Voting (1)-

Galron

With

13

alive, it takes

7

to eliminate.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-12-07 10:00:00)

- Dec 7th 10:00 GMT

Roden salsa TvT makes me feel better about Darby. No reason for scum to lend weight to a new wagon when there’s dueling wagons on not your team.

Was anyone cheerleading the roden salsa fight?

[Bingle]

So either everyone targeted A50 or only Team Fire did and somebody else got doc's and frozen, right?

Seems more likely monkey got tripled up

Useless discussion, imo.

[Bingle]

Actually… VOTE: pav

That’s potentially a very useful discussion for scum. Why did you bring it up?

[Bingle]

I don't think this can have a drawback for asking publicly given how obvious a question it is, so:

@mod: Are death flavors indicative of who made the kill? If they are, what are the specific flavors for a Fire Kill, an Ice Kill, a Doc Kill, and an all three kill?

NM should be able (have to actually) answer that because this is an open.

[Bingle]

UNVOTE:

I think not thinking this through is vaguely +town for Pav, actually?

[Bingle]

Galron
Enchant

Pavowski

Roden

Bingle

LicketyQuickety
Guilty Lion

DArby

Auro
mc esther
T3

Not particularly interested in GL/Auro atm.

VOTE: T3

What does pressing this button do?

[Bingle]

SO yeah i want murder Datsy for now.

What do you think of Darby trying to third wagon in a T/T dueling wagons situation? Do you think SR-ing Salsa was unreasonable?

[Bingle]

SO yeah i want murder Datsy for now.

What do you think of Darby trying to third wagon in a T/T dueling wagons situation? Do you think SR-ing Salsa was unreasonable?

It was basically this:

Me
"What we trying to achieve"
Salsa:
"Miselim"
Darby:
"WOW YOU WANT KILL SELF HAMMER"

Seems like a kinda strange dismissal of

The power of the hammer in the palm of my hand

Not hammering.

But gonna be honest, it's tempting.

+1

[Bingle]

he actually did just majorly misread me.

Seems entirely reasonable, actually.

Like... I didn't want to bring this up yesterday because it hurt my position in another game that has ended, but LQ seems like the kind of player who just has weird takes. Is there a particular take of his that you think is particularly scum indicative that I should look at?

[Bingle]

I’m a little slow. Could you please reword this?

moist ceouightanly. (Intended to be most certainly read with a bugs bunny accent)

There were wagons on Roden and Salsa. We know that neither Roden nor Salsa is your buddy, so scum you doesn't have any skin in the game and either of those going through is fine. Roden and Salsa tried to start a CW together on LQ and you joined that. If LQ is scum, you're probably not scum with him because why would you jump ship to join a wagon on a buddy that may derail the free mislims on Not-A-Buddy. If LQ isn't your buddy, why do you jump ship from a town wagon on Roden to join a wagon Roden is pushing along with the other biggest suspect? I'm not a rocket surgeon, but that doesn't seem like the kind of thing scum thinks they get towncred from and you had no reason not to just stay the course at the time.

Not a "Oh shit this is never scum", but enough of a reason to think you're town that you're not in my murderbasket.

[Bingle]

He quotted different message not ths one.

Him not quoting Salsa talking about self hammering with several people discussing hammering doesn't make it so Salsa wasn't talking about self hammering with several people discussing hammering.

I think it was pretty obvious what D'Arbolical was referencing when he said "pushing for your own lim gives me an itchy trigger finger".

[Bingle]

Also basically every time I’ve seen town salsa run up she’s either self hammered or replaced out.

What'd you make of Salsa threatening the self right before I unvoted?

[Bingle]

Seems entirely reasonable, actually.

I just realized this probably looks like it means exactly the opposite of my intention.

LQ's play seems entirely reasonable to me, not your reasoning to vote him.

Not that your reasoning is necessarily unreasonable, but rather that I don't think LQ having weird takes is particularly scummy.

[Bingle]

Bingle - Good thoughts, feel like he's actually trying to sort me.

Can confirm I’m not a jester.

[Bingle]

Auro, join me on T3?

[Bingle]

I think enchant is more likely to get a wagon without my involvement and I’m interested in who votes where. Why enchant over T3?

[Bingle]

While I would probably agree with this, I'm multi-tabling and this isn't my highest priority game atm.

Careful not to talk about ongoing games.

[Bingle]

Their push on Roden looks bad in retrospect

Why?

What about it makes it bad instead of just wrong?

[Bingle]

where the take was just, factually wrong? i still havent made up my mind about it.

Generally speaking, I'd say that outright lies about the game state are NAI as a whole, because there's not a lot of scum motivation in doing something so blatant. It is likely that LQ thought Roden was thread dodging to duck heat.

The question then becomes: is it likely that town LQ would be wrong there and scum LQ wouldn't? Is it likely that there's a genuine misread of the situation?

[Bingle]

We were fighting?

No, but there were clearly two camps: vote you and vote Salsa. It doesn't have to be dramatic for there to be disagreement to read into.

[Bingle]

Bingle, why are you less suspicious of me here than you were yesterday?

I'm not, I'm just also not interested in your elimination. There is a meaningful distinction between the two.

[Bingle]

ah I'm rereading a few things and realizing I might have misunderstood this - did you want a tl;dr on 575 specifically? In my head I thought you were asking for a general readslist here. regardless, readslist coming in a sec, and maybe I'll try to touch on this there. it won't be in tl;dr form though

Not specifically on 575, no. I just got the feeling that your content was analysis heavy and conclusion light.

I'm also not solely talking about reads. If you have a gamestate theory or something along those lines I'd be happy to hear that as well. I just want to know what you actually got out of the work you did.

[Bingle]

Mildly refrigerated?

Not Mafia has been mildly refrigerated for years, and it still doesn't stop him from trolling the shit out of the game.

[Bingle]

So either everyone targeted A50 or only Team Fire did

and somebody else got doc's and frozen

, right?

Seems more likely monkey got tripled up

I don't think this can have a drawback for asking publicly given how obvious a question it is, so:

@mod: Are death flavors indicative of who made the kill? If they are, what are the specific flavors for a Fire Kill, an Ice Kill, a Doc Kill, and an all three kill?

NM should be able (have to actually) answer that because this is an open.

Yes death flavours are indicative. Ice Mafia is

Frozen

, Fire Mafia is

Incinerated

and a CPR Doc kill is

Shocked

. If all three were to target a player, the fire and ice mafia kills would cancel out and the CPR Doc would kill the player. I will add this to the rules section.

Pav - how did you know the Ice Team's flavor was "frozen" specifically? I don't recall seeing that anywhere prior to N_M editing the posts.

I believe it was in the setup thread but I might be wrong.

I don't think this can have a drawback for asking publicly given how obvious a question it is, so:

@mod: Are death flavors indicative of who made the kill? If they are, what are the specific flavors for a Fire Kill, an Ice Kill, a Doc Kill, and an all three kill?

NM should be able (have to actually) answer that because this is an open.

It wasn't, I checked when posting this.

[Bingle]

I might have a pretty angleshooty read, but I need confirmation of something from the mod before outing it.

[Bingle]

Actually, there's no harm in outing how I'm going to get it, so I can do that.

There is no kill flavor in the Role PMs provided on page 1. (I know, I checked a while back.) I just asked NM if he put kill flavor in the maf pts (open, so general formatting of PTs should be public information). If yes, then I think that's scum indicative for GL. If no, I think that's fairly clearing for GL.

[Bingle]

What if both Ice and Fire shot A50? I know this probably isn't a good question to ask, but I can't help thinking this is at least possible.

Mod already answered this publicly. Fire+Ice would cancel and doc flavor would show as the kill.

Mod confirmed that he wouldn't have given anyone kill flavors prior to being asked, so if Pav slipped it was by specifically asking the mod what the kill flavor was and then outing that accidentally. Additionally, he would have had to either have faked not knowing the doc would be the kill flavor or only ask for partial flavor knowledge, which just seems weird. This is NOT clearing, because all it proves is that he didn't have access to information that scum didn't have access to by default (or is pulling the weirdest fucking fakeslip on earth that isn't even AI).

I think this IS clearing for GL because he's accusing Pav of being scum because he didn't have access to information that scum didn't have access to (or pulling a 5D fakeslip that relies on me pulling a 4D slip analysis).

[Bingle]

@GL

I still think Pav is town despite the possible signaling because I think scum is likely super paranoid about posting that kind of thing and avoids it like the plague. OTOH, calling attention to something that looks superficially like signaling like name escapes me but I'm voting them did is a way to signal without being the person actually doing the signaling. It also probably ducks other scum hunting for scum signaling but dodges calling out the signaling to town in order to keep the signaling alive if it actually is. Pretty tinfoily, but I also didn't like reactions so I think it's a solid flip.

How closely did this match your Pav town reasons? Why do you think it’s less solid?

[Bingle]

Not really feeling T3 at this point. Their "effort" is kinda lacking?

Consider my vote spiritually on T3 at this point since no one else seems interested in Galron.

Okay. VOTE: Galron

[Bingle]

People sheeping me is usually an indicator that person is Scum, so I'd like you to provide reasoning for your vote.

Sure. I think there's scum in the wagon on T3 and I'm pressing a different button to see what effect it has.

Why were you trying to cast an E-1 vote on a wagon you were already on?

[Bingle]

T3 (4)- Bingle, Galron, LicketyQuickety, Auro (E-2)

^T3 Wagon

VOTE: T3

What does pressing this button do?

^ Reason for T3 Wagon

[Bingle]

Why spiritually
There's no lolhammerers around

[Bingle]

T3 (4)- Bingle, Galron, LicketyQuickety, Auro (E-2)

^T3 Wagon

VOTE: T3

What does pressing this button do?

^ Reason for T3 Wagon

[Bingle]

Looked back, and apparently the VC was wrong. You should have been on Gal instead of T3. But still, that wagon popping up that fast with that little resistance over what I admitted to be no reason at all at the time is weird, so I'm pressing another button.

[Bingle]

You not already being on the T3 wagon is a disappointment, tbh.

I was wondering specifically whether you would hop right back on Galron if someone else joined or if you'd stay with the wagon with more steam.

[Bingle]

LOL, even Bingle can derp.

Well, yeah. But in this case I was just trusting the VC to be accurate.

[Bingle]

@gal nope check 749

It a big ol null sandwich for pav.

[Bingle]

Forgive me if I don't sheep you on this one.

My heart, she breaks.

[Bingle]

I saw that but didn't connect the two. Re-reading 744 I guess I see what you're getting at, but now I'm not sure why Pav is null.

I’m not saying pav overall is null. I’m saying that in that particular interaction nothing indicative about pave alignment occurred.

I already explained why I think pav is town.

[Bingle]

Hmmm.

VOTE: Auro

This time it's actually a scumread!

[Bingle]

801/802 feels very much like you’re playing to an audience and not so much like you’re being genuine. I have no doubt you think LQ is scum, but I think you care more about how the vote looks either way.

[Bingle]

the [late] quicktopic era

Now you have me slightly curious. That’s my origins. I’m jingle, used to hang around site chat most of the time, had a few very active hydrae, was involved with pretty much every game that had the ETL/Antihero crowd.

[Bingle]

Last part - I don't envision how the vote could look *bad*? Based on what I've expressed before about LQ, I could simply naked vote and it should be fine.

That’s kind of my point. A naked vote would have been fine. Instead you dropped in with your theory about intentionally being weird to dodge a kill which feels unnatural and performative.

Why do you think LQ is playing up the weirdness?

[Bingle]

FWIW, I've seen Bingle do this sort of thing as Jester.

Fwiw my game plan there was be town->die to paranoia. Unless you’re talking about specifically the failed hammer on the last day in which case I don’t think miscounting votes is a particularly AI indicator for any alignment for me.

[Bingle]

T3 because he doesn't metabad as scum

[Bingle]

Like there's no effort to sell mc esther on his Bingle suspicions here, just defensiveness.

Actually, this is pretty interesting.

LQ, you had no issues calling me on my shit in the Jester game. Why aren't you doing so here?

[Bingle]

i dont actually believe you (scum shot roden, at the time the number one scumread in the game? really?), but we have seven days on the deadline and another perfectly good wagon, so im willing to indulge this a little. it probably goes without saying that nobody should counterclaim this.

if you believed roden was scum so strongly that you were willing to vig him over it, why werent you voting him yesterday?

Eh, ridiculous scumkill target makes it more likely, not less, to be true. We’ll see if real doc vigs there tonight in any case and there’s no reason it can’t be solved tomorrow anyway.

[Bingle]

T3 because he doesn't metabad as scum

Just realized this could be interpreted as mean-spirited. What I meant is that town!T3 uses meta and is fallible. Scum!T3 really just TMI's when he meta reads someone because he almost always meta reads townies as town to get town cred for himself. The one time I've seen him meta read somebody as scum, it was his scum buddy lol. When scum!T3 pushes somebody as a scum read and they're a townie it's almost never a meta read.

This is just my own analysis of his playstyle though, it isn't 100% accurate. But I can usually at the very least trust his town reads no matter his alignment.

Metabad usually means that all meta is bad and thus unusable, and I thought it was funny that you were offering the read that “someone is town because they only complain about meta as town.”

I appreciate the elaboration, though, it makes more sense and let’s me feel better, though not good, about T3.

I will point out that spewing someone as town is less viable in multiball because scum are still actively looking for scum. (At least, competent ones are)

[Bingle]

He’s trying to pick fights

He is? I could have sworn I literally just asked him why he wasn’t doing that. Weird.

[Bingle]

VC 1.09

Galron (0)-

Enchant (1)-

Auro

Pavowski (0)-

Almost50 (0)-

Roden (3)-

GuiltyLion, LicketyQuickety, Auro

Bingle (0)-

LicketyQuickety (1)-

Salsabil Faria

GuiltyLion (0)-

Salsabil Faria (7)-

T3, mc esther, Pavowski,

Almost50

, Galron,

Roden

, DArby

-ELIMINATED

DArby (0)-

Auro (0)-

mc esther (0)-

T3 (0)-

Not Voting (1)-

Galron

With

13

alive, it takes

7

to eliminate.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-12-07 10:00:00)

- Dec 7th 10:00 GMT

Thinking about the implications of a roden kill for optics for a moment, what does scum get if Roden flips town? We know the two main wagons yesterday are TvT at that point, and thus are disincentivized from analyzing the Salsa wagon especially strongly. It also mildly points away from GL, LQ, Auro, because it gets rid of an easy path for them to take today (well obviously the cw was on scum!) and I already pointed out how I think it looks good for Darby. So my take is that ice team is probably in…

I was just looking at the VC to see who that actually pointed to and it’s all sorts a borked. Auro and gal are both voting twice and I apparently don’t even have a vote.

[Bingle]

Galron (0)-
Enchant (1)- Auro
Pavowski (0)-
Almost50 (0)-

Roden

(3)- GL LQ
Bingle (0)-
LicketyQuickety (1)-

Salsa

GuiltyLion (0)-

Salsabil Faria

(7)- T3 mc esther Pav

Almost50

Galron[/vote]

[post=601]Roden

Darby
DArby (0)- Enchant
Auro (0)-
mc esther (0)-
T3 (0)-

Not Voting: Bingle (previously on Salsa)

Here's the actual end of day wagon.

[Bingle]

Galron (0)-
Enchant (1)- Auro
Pavowski (0)-
Almost50 (0)-

Roden

(3)- GL LQ
Bingle (0)-
LicketyQuickety (1)-

Salsa

GuiltyLion (0)-

Salsabil Faria

(7)- T3 mc esther Pav

Almost50

Galron

Roden

Darby
DArby (0)- Enchant
Auro (0)-
mc esther (0)-
T3 (0)-

Not Voting: Bingle (previously on Salsa)

Here's the actual end of day wagon.

This time without broken tags!

So... Off Salsa wagon is: GL LQ Auro Enchant Me

On Salsa wagon is: T3 mc esther Pav Galron Darby

I think the latter group is more likely to have shot Roden as scum, with GL and LQ being even less likely of the off wagon voters. Even given the possibility of a shooting for doc scenario, there were surely other doc suspects that could have been shot that weren't already easy wagons to build.

It's worth noting that the old VC shows more support on Roden than there actually was, but given that no one was complaining about the VC accuracy, I doubt anyone noticed that before just now, so we can assume scum thought Roden was pretty viable. Given that, if enchant flips doc I think we look for scum in T3/Esther/Galron tomorrow.

[Bingle]

the no-kill was explained here. t3 was obviously trying a misguided solo, so i told him exactly why he couldnt do that. he did it anyway. ngl im a little mad lol, but i misplayed the previous day so i probably shouldnt be.

Yeah, committing to the joint win early was a hard mistake because you can’t guess how the other party reacts reliably but T3 legitimately game threw. If you had decided to screw him over, your choice was to shoot him, not shoot the other town.

If T3 was worried you were going to screw him the solution was to no kill to test.

[Bingle]

because im not a fan of wincons that dont necessarily match how the players feel about them (like, some players view solo as a "greater" victory while others are more "role pm says win, a win is a win").

Feature, not a flaw, imo. Also to trivialize the setup you need a game state of 4v2v2 without a doc.

[Bingle]

Auro I immediately to mod a jester game.

[Bingle]

Inned. Damn autocorrect.

[Bingle]

definitely not great play on my end.

Disagree. I think you played an amazing game and wish we’d been scum together when I wasn’t burned out on mafia. Making little mech mistakes like you did is just something that happens.