open 841: concgratulations to the winners and losers

[innocentvillager]

i have some reasons for voting midway but I’m hesitant to completely delineate them rn I want to see more and I do have my midway doubts

also this game like started 30 hours ago or something so lol

pedit why is top of the draft a reason to scumread her

[midwaybear]

Midwaybear do you thjnk I should have you as town by now? or anyone familiar with you?

Probably? I don't think I call Datisi/nsg out as scum because I don't see that as scum. Everything else I could probably do as scum though Also, I think catboi's early tr on me was more luck (?), but he did correctly read me on early on in the last game we played.
Also, I don't think we've played in over a year so I don't think I am obv town anymore (I died during day last 2 town games).

[Mare]

People higher up in draft more likely to be scum.

[Andante]

also it just hit me that Andante is top in the draft. That's another reason to scumread her, I guess.

You're just jealous cause you were bottom of the draft

[Something_Smart]

There's a pretty clear correlation between being high in the draft and being scum in PYP games.

The reasons I can think of are (a) scum are less likely to collide in general because they will avoid colliding with each other, (b) based on (a) they are more likely to go for low numbers because it's safer, and (c) they are likely to put more calculation and thought into the draft than town.

[Something_Smart]

You're just jealous cause you were bottom of the draft

I literally spent the entirety of the last PYP game I played correctly calling the top drafter scum

[innocentvillager]

People higher up in draft more likely to be scum.

i mean maybe like very slightly because scum will never clash with each other but that’s only 2 numbers you’re guaranteed to not hit

also I don’t think this logic applies to the low doubles much either

idk how much I believe good draft position means non negligible increased scum equity

[Mare]

You're just jealous cause you were bottom of the draft

I literally spent the entirety of the last PYP game I played correctly calling the top drafter scum

Didn’t stop me from killing you. :^)

[innocentvillager]

There's a pretty clear correlation between being high in the draft and being scum in PYP games.

The reasons I can think of are (a) scum are less likely to collide in general because they will avoid colliding with each other, (b) based on (a) they are more likely to go for low numbers because it's safer, and (c) they are likely to put more calculation and thought into the draft than town.

interesting

how strong is this effect would you estimate empirically/sample size

[Andante]

You're just jealous cause you were bottom of the draft

I literally spent the entirety of the last PYP game I played correctly calling the top drafter scum

ahhh I see, so the plan is to just call me scum in hopes I flip scum, so that you can then go "I have a 100% success rate at catching scum based on draft order!" only issue with that plan is I'm not scum lol

[Mare]

Scum want power roles and to deny town power roles, I said this before but the cost of wifom and picking a lower number sucks when every townie is a PR catching you because you picked something bad or rolled goon.

[Mare]

Going through previous runs slowly on mobile, looks like the first two runs of this setup scum were in the top of draft. Lol.

I picked top last time as scum, etc.

Pretty sure it’s a stable pattern and to be expected that at least one will try to grab something good.

[Something_Smart]

Hoopla's analysis:

draft positions of 42 scum in 14 PYP games:

1st - xxx
2nd - xxxxx
3rd - xxx
4th - xxx
5th - xxxxxx
6th - xxx
7th - xxx
8th - xxx
9th - xxxxx
10th - xx
11th - x
12th -x
13th - xx
14th - xx

Updated with recent games:

1st - xxxxx
2nd - xxxxx
3rd - xxx
4th - xxx
5th - xxxxxxxx
6th - xxx
7th - xxx
8th - xxx
9th - xxxxxx
10th - xx
11th - x
12th -x
13th - xx
14th - xxx

[Andante]

so why am I the only low number we feel like tunneling/calling out?

[Andante]

aand here is your draft!

Andante: 2
skitter30: 3
midwaybear: 5
Mare: 6
innocentvillager: 10
SirCakez: 12
Faker: 14
catboi: 21
PookyTheMagicalBear: 1 + coin flip victory
Datisi: 1
northsidegal: 8 + coin flip victory
Sleepless Assassin: 8
flow trap: 9 + coin flip victory
Something_Smart: 9.

[Something_Smart]

5th - xxxxxxxx

IV, I've got some bad news for you.

[Andante]

so 5 and 9. are innocentvillager and pooky. I literally SR innocentvillager...

[Something_Smart]

Actually I kinda want to go back and look at the numbers selected by scum in the 5th position because that feels like not a coincidence.

[Mare]

so why am I the only low number we feel like tunneling/calling out?

I mean all of the top people so far have had suspicion, so, you’re not.

[innocentvillager]

Good start

we need a scatter plot of this over all pyp games

lets beat scum with STATISTICS and SIGNIFICANT DATA

pedit: HAHAH u beat me to it

[Something_Smart]

If you click the link Hoopla did analysis of numbers selected by scum too.

[Andante]

lets beat scum with STATISTICS and SIGNIFICANT DATA

lol I'm a stats major

[innocentvillager]

ummmmm fuck

[Datisi]

imagine solving the game via social deduction when you can solve it by MATH

[innocentvillager]

ok real question is 5th being scum indicative p 0.05? No? Okay

ITS ALL NAI