Micro 1039: The Coalition [game over!]

[ProHawk]

So here's my theory. We don't really have a ton-ton of posts or content. I'm going to go off of the theory that maf...

1) Wants to *look* town
2) Needs to get into the coalition

Therefore:

Self-Healing accomplishes both of those things. If you're town, obviously the best play is to get yourself into the coalition as it's pro-win-con. Therefore in order to *claim* town as mafia, self-healing is a very easy way to do so. Secondly, if you're maf and don't make it into the coalition, and your partner doesn't then you lose. What's the easiest non-obvious way to get into a coalition? Self-Heal. Obviously town will also self-heal so it's a matter of trying to find those people that were using the self-heal as more of a town-tell. Mc Ester, Enchant, and T3 were three who immediately self-healed. T3 threw himself into a mix of three as such I would consider that more of a hiddenish self-heal. Enchant was a solo-self-heal first post. Mc Ester was also a solo-self-heal first post.

Andante - Town - Hasn't even come close to self-healing which doesn't fit the scum-win-con. Could be a long con, but doubtful.
Looker - Town-Feels - Has a strong presence, which isn't AI necessarily, but I like the vibes.
Umlaut - Likely town. Appears to be scum-hunting more than most.
MBot - Lost - Never played as maf before, so the lost could be related to that, however I think that she would be getting coached here, which her posts don't have that feel.
Galron - Middle of the Pack - I am concerned with the post implying that Looker may not be town because he isn't self-healing.
T3 - Hidden 1st Self-Heal
Enchant - 1st Self-Heal, Likely Maf
mc ester - 1st Self-Heal, Likely Maf

HEAL: Andante
HEAL: Umlaut
HEAL: MBot
HEAL: ProHawk

I'm good with me not being in the coalition should most people not town-read me which happens with much frequency.

[Enchant]

Oh yeah, another "I SACRIFICE MYSELF" for nothing, please continue.

[ProHawk]

Woah woah woah, who is sacrificing here?

I don't lose if I don't get into a coalition.

[ProHawk]

i dont get why looker's town but i'll accept it for now

HEAL: looker

mbot heal someone you said you wanna lock a coalition in heal someone (ya that post pings super hard)

VOTE: mc esther

Was this a random vote?

[ProHawk]

Oh yeah, another "I SACRIFICE MYSELF" for nothing, please continue.

I see your heals. Would love to hear your thoughts on mafia.

[Enchant]

Woah woah woah, who is sacrificing here?

I don't lose if I don't get into a coalition.

You hurting chances for instawin.


I already argued about that so i disgerard all future appeals just don't expect me to have good opinion on you just for your "sacrifice" because it's just annoying and not helpful.

[Enchant]

i dont get why looker's town but i'll accept it for now

HEAL: looker

mbot heal someone you said you wanna lock a coalition in heal someone (ya that post pings super hard)

VOTE: mc esther

Was this a random vote?

No.

[ProHawk]

Woah woah woah, who is sacrificing here?

I don't lose if I don't get into a coalition.

You hurting chances for instawin.


I already argued about that so i disgerard all future appeals just don't expect me to have good opinion on you just for your "sacrifice" because it's just annoying and not helpful.

So I don't understand where this vitriol is coming from... I have myself in my coalition. Why do we need an insta-win? IF we get it, cool. Random chance of getting it? Low. Chance of us just plain not forming a coalition if mafia are competent? HIGH.

Why did you vote mc esther?

[ProHawk]

I already argued about that

Where was this?

[Enchant]

Then your commentary about "I am ready to go off" is even more unneeded.

Because i think mc esther is mafia trying to follow waves.

[Enchant]

I already argued about that

Where was this?

In previous game. I was mafia, but believe me, my anger from this is universally. I hate when something dumb is considered townie.

Cease.

[mc esther]

Because i think mc esther is mafia trying to follow waves.

what? ignoring self-votes, i was the first person to heal galron, you, and mbot — looker is my only sheep read. im not following waves, im making them.

[mc esther]

I am concerned with the post implying that Looker may not be town because he isn't self-healing.

no, i had galron's thought too; it makes some sense, though i ended up dismissing it as theory disagreement. it looks hella scummy if you view it in terms of "what town motivation is there for a widely townread player to not self-heal when asked" (like, he knows he's town, shouldnt he want to be locked in?), compared to scum (who should imo also self-heal, but might reasonably be worried about looking too eager). but the flipside to me — which caused me to dismiss the read — is "looker and i clearly just dont agree on how self-healing 'works'", like, we established that earlier in the game.

[ProHawk]

Are we at the point of locking in a coalition though? Also he's not not self healing, he just removed himself

[T3]

i really don't think self heaing is a scummy behavior.

[Umlaut]

Prodge, COVID booster is kicking my butt, Andante is still scum

[Datisi]

prodding Looker.

[ProHawk]

i really don't think self heaing is a scummy behavior.

You are indeed correct in your statement.

However consider the opposite... not self healing is anti-scum behavior.

[mc esther]

Are we at the point of locking in a coalition though?

mechanically, no; but i think enchant and looker are basically locked-in, yeah. looker much less so if galron's gonna start getting all paranoid, but we'll see.

However consider the opposite... not self healing is anti-scum behavior.

im going to make a stronger statement than t3 which more directly challenges your premise -- scum dont need to self-heal. i talked about this earlier when discussing this seeming paradox in the andante scumread (because it's a little bit more odd than "doesn't self-heal", she only very recently healed at all, and under pressure) -- only one scum needs to heal (in any capacity), and only if neither mafioso is being townread.

[ProHawk]

Yes that is a scenario that I hadn't considered... The team aspect. However that only applies to midgame where you have a good idea of where you stand in the community at large. Early on you'll want to self-heal. My theory anyway, if I ever get time I'll go search out scum plays on these types of games to prove or disprove my hypothesis

[mc esther]

it can even be true in the first three posts of the game. if your buddy self-heals and immediately picks up a heal, you well decide to take an early punt on no-healing. i also just, dont think it's that hard to tell where you stand in a game where the mod literally keeps count of everyone's strongest townread.

this is conjecture, and if i can find time (no promises, but it'd be cool of me), sure i can go check what naked self-heal rates actually look like town vs. scum. but like... your theory is just conjecture too

[ProHawk]

Yes it's a theory. At least it gives me some substance to base my reads around. Obviously it's not infallible.

Enchants reaction to it was not good

[T3]

slef healing is always pro-your alignment, unless you're trying to confuse town about that?
i think.
i definitely like how prohawk is pushing this angle, it seems misguided but town.

[mc esther]

enchant's reaction wasnt great from a "keeping the thread chill" perspective, but i cant see scum in it. like, do you think theyre feigning their frustrations? t3 thinks youre plainly wrong too, why is he not scum?

[mc esther]

slef healing is always pro-your alignment

this isnt true, scum sometimes want to avoid self-healing to avoid being in coalition with their buddy. i dont think that's happened this game though.