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[Crescent]

maybe fb scum

anyone feels it?!?!

We could just kill

you

dundundun

Enchant what happened to you? Same to Crescent.
You don't feel the same as at earlier times.

Just 4 more votes on Owen for another mafia down, presumably. Not voting that outs you.

I underestimated how much energy my return to work would take, and I added on something extra I shouldn't. I'm overloaded and I'm shuffling around what's getting the short end of the stick when I can.

I'm not sure how much can be read into Lowell's vote hopping on day 1. As we saw on day 2, his vote hops around a lot. The only difference is the primary vote on day 2 wasn't scum.

One thing I will say about post #1570... That argument on Lowell doesn't compare to the argument on Prince, who attacked the wagon leader (without mentioning the wagon) the moment it took the lead, and then joined the wagon the moment it expanded. I'm going to do some research into this

During this time frame, it goes from 6 Fred/3 Meg/2 Andante to 4 Fred/4 FP (now Unsure)/4 Meg/2 MT. This means in this 75 post stretch, an utterly ridiculous amount of votes swung around, and

exactly

one of them was actually placed on Meg.

And the only vote placed on Meg during that time...

Was by Owen

, in only his second non-RVS vote of the day. So basically, for Owen to be bussing here requires him to have ignored the trains on Fred (town), FP/Unsure, Andante (most likely town), and MT... To bus. Owen never moves his vote off of Meg at this point and it remains there the rest of the day. Unless it's

specifically

Owen/Unsure, it's hard to see this as a bus after Fred's flip.

With Fred flipping town, I find myself far more inclined to trust Owen's vote on Meg than Prince's. Prince is basically just a scummier version of virtually everything Owen has done this game.

[Crescent]

VOTE: Lowell
This is the way forward. My reasoning is 866, but the short explanation is that Lowell gave this:

Biggest scumread that stands out to me that I didn't notice before is

prince

. Not going to derail the perfectly good

Fred

wagon but if this feckless town chickens out let's do him or

Meg

next.

Andante

looks worse than I remember. Some likely towns are:

gerain, crescent, pooky, vivax

.

as his excuse to jump from the scum Meg wagon with momentum, to the town Fred wagon that was faltering. And then went on a vanity vote against Prince rather than immediately return to the Meg wagon when the Fred wagon collapsed.

Great point!
VOTE: Lowell

Did you really quote your own post and revote your own target?

[Crescent]

We have like 7 different trains coming from 13 different people on day 3. It's kinda nuts... And of course my #1 scum is the only vote on my #2 scum so that's fun.


Since I seem to be one of.. Only like two people who sees that Enchant is scum. I think I'd also rather vote Unsure over Owen here, even though I'm not particularly enthused about Owen's behavior on the Fred train yesterday. It's hard to see Owen bussing on Meg there if Unsure isn't also scum, and I think Prince has basically just been "Owen, but worse". Like, Prince immediately shading Lowell based the post after Owen did pretty much sums up a lot of that feeling on it's own.


Here's my other issue:

This game is dead. Scum wins.

it's dead cause people are luike "NO!!! I DON'T WANT TO WAGON X" but then don't give alternate wagons

VOTE: UNOwen

VOTE: UNOwen

I don't have an example of how UNOwen plays town so far, so I'd have to go purely off the feeling at the entrance

I can get behind this.

VOTE: UNOwen

That's 3 weak as shit votes in the span of 5 posts. I wouldn't even call this a train. One curious Owen fact though: Owen has never stated any argument or read concerning Prince

the entire game

. This feels kind of weird given my opinion of "Prince is a scummier version of Owen". I could see this being a pocket of sorts by Prince though, as his actions have mirrored many of Owen's. Carcalilly did this as scum with town DWLee in MN2272. It's a major part of why I got to the correct conclusion on day 3 that DWLee was just super scummy town.

I doubt it, but will be very sad if Prince turns out to be scum.

Except for this post, which is completely out of context and has nothing to do with anything else being posted on that page.


If you think Owen is scummier than Prince, then sell me on it instead of making 3 votes that look like crap in 5 posts. I already had Prince as my #2 scum at the start of the day (as evidenced by my chart yesterday), and that gap between him and a potential #3 has only widened today as I've done more analysis.

[Crescent]

The tl;dr of all of it is I think Prince is quite a bit more likely to be scum than Owen, and I think Owen's chances of town go up if Prince is scum just because of how consistently he has and continues to mirror him.

[Vivax]

I'm not picky when it comes to the order of elimination.
It looks like you're back to clarity and sheepable in my books, but you are also a very restrained voter.
Happy to see your thoughts flow back into the game.

VOTE: PrinceofPaterson

[Andante]

The tl;dr of all of it is I think Prince is quite a bit more likely to be scum than Owen, and I think Owen's chances of town go up if Prince is scum just because of how consistently he has and continues to mirror him.

my tldr of it is, UNOwen never actually outed a reason for voting Meg, it was just an RVS vote that kinda stayed, andlike, what bothers me, is even as the wagon picked up speed, UNO did absolutely nothing to go "yeah guys vote meg!" so like, yeah... some people generally don't move votes around too much, this feels like it started as "I'm gonna RVS vote meg for distance" but then, meg wagon actually picked up, and UNO couldn't justify hopping off so just stayed.

You seem to think it's "super clearing" that UNO didn't move wagons? I mean, Meg is definitely not scum's most powerful role... I genuinely don't see how UNO's meg vote is "so clearing" as you seem to think it is

[UNOwen]

The reason I doubt Prince is scum is pretty much what you just said Crescent. If he's scum then chose to spend most of his energy day 1 on backing me up, which given my thread presence is surely a terrible investment from a scum POV. Alternatively he's just a townie who found some of my posts agreeable/understandable. This doesn't seem very unreasonable to me. I agree the Pooky push doesn't look great in context, apart from that though I don't have any issues with his posts. He looks like town approaching the game in a rational way, theoretically his posts could be faked by scum, but it could also be exactly what it looks like. There's not much of an argument that I can see for him actually being scum.

[Prince of Paterson]

The tl;dr of all of it is I think Prince is quite a bit more likely to be scum than Owen, and I think Owen's chances of town go up if Prince is scum just because of how consistently he has and continues to mirror him.

my tldr of it is, UNOwen never actually outed a reason for voting Meg, it was just an RVS vote that kinda stayed, andlike, what bothers me, is even as the wagon picked up speed, UNO did absolutely nothing to go "yeah guys vote meg!" so like, yeah... some people generally don't move votes around too much, this feels like it started as "I'm gonna RVS vote meg for distance" but then, meg wagon actually picked up, and UNO couldn't justify hopping off so just stayed.

You seem to think it's "super clearing" that UNO didn't move wagons? I mean, Meg is definitely not scum's most powerful role... I genuinely don't see how UNO's meg vote is "so clearing" as you seem to think it is

This isn't really true at all. His 539 is a good reason and it convinced me to vote Meg. So it wasn't an RVS vote, he did give a reason, and it did convince others to vote there.

[Vivax]

I suppose I'll put my ambitions on the backburner here and take aim at the suddenly humongously big bearded fairy
Can't complain after a successful D1, so let's see if the suspects take me to the right place.

VOTE: Enchant

[UNOwen]

I'm not sure how much can be read into Lowell's vote hopping on day 1. As we saw on day 2, his vote hops around a lot. The only difference is the primary vote on day 2 wasn't scum.

One thing I will say about post #1570... That argument on Lowell doesn't compare to the argument on Prince, who attacked the wagon leader (without mentioning the wagon) the moment it took the lead, and then joined the wagon the moment it expanded. I'm going to do some research into this

The issue isn't just his vote swapping but the timing of it. Maybe this is being lost in the quote but this statement:

Not going to derail the perfectly good

Fred

wagon but if this feckless town chickens out let's do him or

Meg

next.

contradicts what was happening in the thread.

The Fred wagon had stalled, the Meg wagon had grown. Lowell's vote switch looks more like an attempt at rejuvenating the Fred wagon and derailing the Meg wagon. You can believe that Lowell was just completely indifferent between Meg and Fred, but this doesn't match with his behaviour as when the Fred wagon collapsed he moved to voting Prince (no mention of Meg at all). Not until the Meg wagon became clearly serious did he return.

[Lowell]

Prince deserves more scorn for 1571 than UnOwen does for 1570, btw. Looks to me like scum is waiting for a chance to get rid of me and jumping on the first dumb idea.

In what world do you believe scum have you as a priority target?

In the world where I'm quasi-cleared already and flipping the mafia doctor would fully clear me. In any event piggy-backing on some rube saying "hey what about Lowell" with an immediate and opportunistic "hmmm actually maybe that's why we can't find scum IT MUST BE THE GUY WITHOUT THE GUN!" looks a lot like someone pretty excited to see my name thrown out.

[Lowell]

VOTE: prince

Unsure is still fine, but I'd really prefer this slot first.

[Prince of Paterson]

Unfortunately, flipping a mafia doctor would not fully clear you. It has already been mentioned that the mod has previously made a setup with multiple mafia doctors.

[geraintm]

Sorry, not posting much today and only quickly scanning the thread. Did vivax really vote for 7 different people since I last posted?

[UNOwen]

Prince is correct, we know only that there's

at least

one mafia doctor in this game, so Lowell isn't cleared even a bit.

Unfortunately, flipping a mafia doctor would not fully clear you. It has already been mentioned that the mod has previously made a setup with multiple mafia doctors.

Why did you give any credence to bugspray's result in the first place?

[Vivax]

Sorry, not posting much today and only quickly scanning the thread. Did vivax really vote for 7 different people since I last posted?

Did you expect another number?

[Prince of Paterson]

Prince is correct, we know only that there's

at least

one mafia doctor in this game, so Lowell isn't cleared even a bit.

Unfortunately, flipping a mafia doctor would not fully clear you. It has already been mentioned that the mod has previously made a setup with multiple mafia doctors.

Why did you give any credence to bugspray's result in the first place?

Not cleared, but probably made less likely to be scum. We don't know how many doctors there are. I don't think the result is something that should be relied on to prevent his elimination, but I also don't think it should be ignored completely. To speculate on the setup a little bit, we haven't had any other results claimed after two nights. I expect town to have some investigative power. If the odd-night gunsmith is one of the only investigative roles, I would expect it to not be completely useless, and thus would expect there to be fewer mafia doctors. That's making a lot of assumptions, but the point is that we may know more about how useful the result is as the game progresses.

[Crescent]

The reason I doubt Prince is scum is pretty much what you just said Crescent. If he's scum then chose to spend most of his energy day 1 on backing me up, which given my thread presence is surely a terrible investment from a scum POV. Alternatively he's just a townie who found some of my posts agreeable/understandable. This doesn't seem very unreasonable to me. I agree the Pooky push doesn't look great in context, apart from that though I don't have any issues with his posts. He looks like town approaching the game in a rational way, theoretically his posts could be faked by scum, but it could also be exactly what it looks like. There's not much of an argument that I can see for him actually being scum.

I'm barely even factoring the scan in to be honest, considering I'm of the belief that at least 2 of the remaining scum are immune to it anyway.

I was riding the idea that the wagon got "serious" when Lowell and Prince voted him twice in 9 posts, but the one who actually put him in to 4/the lead was you, that much is true. Lowell only jumped

after

you did this..

Can't write more gotta get back to work

[Vivax]

Some random semi-scientific thoughts before crashing, because why the fudge not
A surface is shallow by definition and the combined surfaces of the unseen inner volume outnumber its area by much more

[Firebringer]

im alive for now. it looks like i didn't miss much.
I have such a damn headache right now and Mala hasn't responded to nay of my QUESTIONS!

[Datisi]

prodding MalcolmTucker.

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