Micro 1059: Micro & Normal Stuff | GAME OVER

[Coral]

I don't think that your push on me is that relevant to my evaluation of your alignment because I could see it coming from either direction.

At the start of the day I was feeling pretty convinced you were scum, actually. I expected that if you're town then you would give things a fair evaluation and wouldn't hard tunnel, although I would still guess that you'd likely in the end still come back to voting me.

?

(not trying to pull a gotcha, just trying to understand how these two statements connect)

I'm not sure what you see as the discrepancy. I can try to rephrase the second quote, I have a feeling it wasn't clear? Maybe it sounded like i was saying "you didn't meet the expectations I had of what you would do as town, and that's why I think you're scum", but that wasn't what I meant. My thinking you were scum came before daystart.

My expectation at the start of the day was:
- scamper is probably scum. scum scamper has multiple possible approaches to the day. they could continue tunneling me at the start and just push that hard, or they could try to feel things out in order to predict who of me and datisi is more likely to vote the other and position themselves towards that angle (this is what I think you are currently doing, if you're scum)
- if scamper is town, scamper will probably not vote anyone right away, and will try to fairly evaluate both options (this would be where you're at right now if you're town). town scamper will probably, in the end, be more inclined to stick with their prior read, which would be me. that is by no means a guaranteed thing, but it's what I would predict

[Coral]

I don't think you are hard tunneling me today, and didn't originally either. I think that's the part that was unclear.

[scamper]

there are quite a few comments that i want to make about my own play and my idea of scumplay, at the comments about my towncases, but that's self meta that i don't think is going to be helpful

idk, i have a bad habit of getting tunneled

but my actual mindset at the start of the day was: i was right, i'm annoyed cuz no one listened to me, i expect both of you to turn against me cuz

whoever was scum was very much setting up for that pivot yesterday

, i just want someone to vote me b/c i hate being the one to decide in this situation


but i will say regardless of whatever my words might seem like they're implying i'm rereading and re-evaluating with an open mind

how is the bolded something you came to the conclusion of? specifically in the context of my play.

because it felt like to a significant extent i was the odd one out of the group yesterday, i wasnt really trusted or being responded to much as the 3 of you consolidated on meg and usually those dynamics inevitably end up playing out as the person in the out-group getting voted out in 3p

and i dont really think i was wrong in that assessment

[scamper]

My expectation at the start of the day was:
- scamper is probably scum. scum scamper has multiple possible approaches to the day. they could continue tunneling me at the start and just push that hard, or they could try to feel things out in order to predict who of me and datisi is more likely to vote the other and position themselves towards that angle (this is what I think you are currently doing, if you're scum)
- if scamper is town, scamper will probably not vote anyone right away, and will try to fairly evaluate both options (this would be where you're at right now if you're town). town scamper will probably, in the end, be more inclined to stick with their prior read, which would be me. that is by no means a guaranteed thing, but it's what I would predict

I don't think you are hard tunneling me today, and didn't originally either. I think that's the part that was unclear.

okay, that makes more sense. my reading of the second quote was was that it aws saying "i was pretty convinced you were scum BECAUSE if you were town you would give things a fair evaluation and wouldn't tunnel"

[Coral]

I thought you were scum due to my day 1 reread and am no longer as convinced on that point, but I will still go into the things that I saw... maybe later once Datisi is asleep and there's less real time interaction happening.

[scamper]

I thought you were scum due to my day 1 reread and am no longer as convinced on that point, but I will still go into the things that I saw... maybe later once Datisi is asleep and there's less real time interaction happening.

you're just waiting til he's not around so he can't interject i'm on to u


no but seriously, would like to hear it any time, i have to leave to eat dinner soon anyway

[Datisi]

i reread parts of day 3 because i wanted to eval the "i'd have fought harder to keep meg alive" point from scamper, and eh. shortly after the claims happened, and after meg proclaimed that they're lowkey clearing scamper based on the setup, both me and ausuka talked about how we don't wanna kill coral (page 53), and coral obviously isn't going to vote herself.

like, even if scum!scamper did succeed in getting coral voted out on d3, it would've resulted in them having just pushed through a misyeet, and having to vote me if they were gonna stick with their reads, which is a 50/50 then and sure, meg is clearing them then, but there's no guarantee that clear stays because townies do be wildin in yeetlo

so i can definitely see scum!scamper thinking how great it would be to be able to score a coral misyeet but it's just not that viable and it's more risky than it seems, so they're not gonna go all-in pushing coral, but they can argue that they definitely would've done that as scum

i don't think this is a lock or anything since i think town!scamper can think that is what they would've done as scum there

[Datisi]

I thought you were scum due to my day 1 reread and am no longer as convinced on that point, but I will still go into the things that I saw... maybe later once Datisi is asleep and there's less real time interaction happening.

ftr, i'm still interested in your thoughts there, and i will probably be going to sleep soon

i was hoping to get a better grasp of this game tonight, but it's past 1am already and i feel like i'm stuck in place

[Coral]

I don't think I'll get to it before you sleep since it will involve going back tracking progressions over the course of the day, which I sort of did mentally as I was reading but didn't take the time yet to write any of it down. I know we have a short phase here though, so I'll try to get to it tonight.

[scamper]

sure thing, no problem, just want to understand you thought process

[scamper]

Spoiler:

VOTE: meg

i think i wanna start here. i disliked some of their posts, and also the jump on galron in retrospect looks kinda weird. idk it's midnight, i'm trusting my past self right now.

ari(gamma)/ausuka/probscamper still town on play. and i think xayah is Town, Actually. i don't think scum!her, upon seeing galron be about to go down, starts putting me and ausuka oin her most bottom tier, because, uh. i really don't think that we're viable executions here.

coral i need to take a second look at too, i guess. coming tomorrow before my shift. most likely.

Xayah is my thought for partner atm. I feel like the 180 last minute feels like scum trying to catch the bus last minute.
The done kill is interesting, haven't considered the ramifications yet.

Is it overthinking to call this towny? I mean I'm not sure scum meg plays exactly this way. Like, definitely I can see them townreading scamper, but it feels like they're placing more of an emphasis on towncasing scamper vs scumcasimg xayah, whereas I feel like it's more intuitive for scum to do it in reverse. Does that make sense?

ehh... i lowkey got tmi vibes from their towncase post on scamper. because scum rn has to have reads anyway, and i think (1) it's easier to make correct townreads than scumreads, (2) it's easier to stay consistent with them, especially if you're towncasing someone who obviously isn't among the first people on the chopping block

i feel like it's meg because their play kind of just *fits* with what i'd assume buddy-with-galron would be doing. his slot started getting negative attention pretty early on in the game. your partner going down d1 is bad, in a micro normal it's Bad because you could just get fucked over with tprs. but i don't think there was anything to actually townread galron *on*, so what do you do? you hope for distractions. you stir up shit and hope people go to other slots. and i'm reminded now that meg did that both with ari in ausuka/ari, and with scamper.

this usually wouldn't be an issue by itself, but the fact that the arguments they've made about those two were not very good and were consistently getting called out as not very good and just kinda feel inflammatory is hm.

like, i guESS it's possible the partner was just not here and/or not doing anything to stop the wagon but i feel like it's somewhat unlikely both scum just decided to flop because. idk because the universe doesn't like me that much.

i'm not mad??? i'm not even 100% on meg being scum bc if i were i would be pushing much more strongly there. i'm just trying to Solve The Game, sorry if i came off condescending or something, wasn't my intention

@meg, can you give me some examples of coral posts that you found analytically/nuancedly townie?

i just half-read through her iso, and while her posts aren't

bad

, i don't think i've seen anything that struck me as "this is analytical in a way that i really struggle seeing scum fake this". i don't think she's scum for it obviously, but it does make me wanna see more elaboration on the claim she's town for it.

i do think 476 and 482 (calling ari/ausuka/meg townie when they were shitfighting) are +town, considering that galron was already getting suspicion on him, and ausuka had just called out more of his posts. like, coral was at the time voting xayah, and i don't think that wagon was very likely to go though. and she also said she's still suspicious of don, which had a bit more chance to go though, but galron was already voting there and i don't think(?) scum is eager to double up like that in that gamestate. and the next person she'd logically push would be galron, based on 279.

this also strikes me as a counterintuitive progression to have as scum with galron. it doesn't help galron, it doesn't look good as a bus.

i wish i was confident enough on xayah!town to try to hijack the thread, but i'm not. maybe i'm wrong. even if i'm not wrong, this flip is probably needed anyway.

i am interested in hearing xayah's thoughts on scamper, though. and if she has meta on gamma, i'm likely to just locktown that slot even further (and then blame xayah if we lose because of it).

mmm
gut is telling me it is Probably Just Meg Still, but

i really wanna see what meg and scamper put out first
and i wanna properly revisit a few events on day one to make sure i'm not retconning them in my mind

maybe massclaim today too, i'll decide tomorrow

ok off to bed, see ya in the morning

dats, for having a non-vt result on meg, it feels like you never really pressured them strongly or asked them to claim or tried to persuade other people on the read, and i have to ask why you didnt push that harder? i realize a non-vt from a nea is not a true guilty but on a reread i couldnt help but feel your approach was oddly lackadaisical

[Coral]

Okay, here we go!
Sorry that this isn't super well-organized. I've written it all out but I'm going to try to split it into multiple posts to roughly have individual points separated.

So the main thing I wanted to track as I was rereading is what the general town consensus was and how that progressed over time, to better assess how scum would have wanted to position themselves. In addition to that, I wanted to look at how each of Datisi and scamper approached the day, where and when they decided to push, and how their reads progressed.

Let's go !

[Coral]

Mostly skimming through RVS, and as we know, Datisi starts off pressuring Phoenix early, and scamper finds them towny (but criticizes my reasoning for finding them towny). There's an early wagon on Datisi, but it's not very serious, Datisi seems unconcerned, which I think is slightly towny. Phoenix gathers some early light suspicion from multiple places, and quite a bit of discussion surrounding him.

Things start to get more serious with the first Don wagon, with Datisi and Ari voting there. scamper votes me and suspects Xayah, I vote Xayah, Don votes me. Phoenix posts his readlist in 157, with Datisi and scamper near the top, and me and Xayah at the bottom.

Here I think is the first point of real significance. In 158 and the following few posts, Datisi doesn't understand the Coral or Xayah votes, casing why, and is a little suspicious of scamper for pushing there since they are places that Datisi feels are easy/surface level. He then notices the Phoenix readlist, and directly pushes back against it, criticizing both of Phoenix's main scumreads, and also directly calling out Phoenix's waffling read on Datisi.

I think this would be a really aggressive approach as a scum partner. It isn't just attacking Phoenix, it's using your strong thread presence and convincing ability to shut down scumreads that he has, cutting him off from pushing the people he wants to push. Pushing on a partner early is one thing, but this feels like it isn't even giving him room to breathe and develop.

[Coral]

Galron replaces in. There aren't any major pushes for a bit. Datisi votes Galron in 201, and starts that interesting back and forth with scamper about scamper's apparently easy pushes, and scamper replying that they think phoenix would be an easier push. Ari joins on Galron to make it 3.

This is where both scamper and Datisi's positioning towards Galron kinda flip. Galron has some entrance posts, Xayah and Datisi think they are at least decent, and Datisi moves his vote off, onto me. scamper then votes Galron in 259, criticizing the entrance.

scamper's switch onto Galron here is something that actually drew my attention when I was first looking back at things either night 1 or night 2. Phoenix could be written off as newbie and he efforts enough to probably dodge being eliminated day 1, although he would likely still be a candidate. Galron, though... in this playerlist, with Datisi and Ausuka as relatively charismatic players already suspicious of the slot, and Ari sheeping Datisi... Galron isn't going to post enough to get townread here, and in all likelihood will just die. scamper knows all this, and seeing two people call the entrance good for bad reasons, could have seen an opportunity here to jump in and pressure and get ahead of things, looking like they are going against the grain of town consensus onto scum. Of course, it's also possible that Datisi scum would want to back off for the same reason but opposite conclusion, realizing that if he wants a town elim day 1, he should find somewhere else to push quickly. Both possibilities are believable at this point.

[Coral]

Next there's a lot of back and forth with Ari thinking that Ausuka and Datisi are scum, Ausuka voting Ari (putting her at 3 votes), Don kind of existing in the conversation and seeming to agree with Ari. Datisi and scamper then both townread Ari, so no real difference there. scamper then starts suspecting and pushing on Don starting around 418, and continuing with 423, 431, 435, and 450. In 458, they add a suspicion of Datisi, and then unvote Galron since he doesn't fit in teams that they see.

Ignoring Ari vs Meg since it isn't really relevant here. scamper gets into it with Meg a bit as well, sometimes kinda suspects, mostly is just annoyed. Right after this is where thread sentiment starts to shift towards Galron again, with Ausuka re-voting in 564, Datisi reaffirming his suspicion in 583, and me mentioning my growing suspicion there in 595.

The mistake I made earlier was thinking that scamper didn't ever attempt to find a town elim as an alternative to Galron, because I only looked at where they voted, on Datisi and Meg. But they laid far more groundwork on Don, continuing here with 612 and 615, trying to convince Ausuka of the case. I think that there was enough latent suspicion of Don that scum could see him as the most likely miselim here, and it's something that I missed until I looked back overnight. scamper was the one who did most of the heavy lifting for the case, pushing people on that direction from the sidelines, pushing down on townreads, and generally trying to prod things in that direction.

[Coral]

Next up, drunktisi arrives! Townreads on Ausuka, Ari, and scamper. He starts to find suspicion on Meg with 628, 630, and 643. Datisi and Ausuka simultaneously start getting suspicions of Don (Ausuka in the present with 654, and Datisi still catching up with 650). Suddenly the whole thread feels like it's turning against Don, and he's feeling like a very possible elim (remember that I also have some suspicion there and could probably be persuaded to vote if it were an option). scamper pops in with 677 to criticize Don.

Ausuka ends up backing off a little, though, and Datisi ends the night here:

town - {ausuka, arii, scamper}
town??? - {xayah}
ehh... - {donempire, coral}
sus - {meg, galron}

all tiers are from townier to less townie

VOTE: galron

should be y-2? idk

ik he said he's off weekend but the fact that most active people feel lijke town right now is making me feel more like it's scum in lurkers, not less

i sleep

which is... very not doing anything to move things towards Don. It's even giving a convincing reason to just elim Galron. Datisi as scum would easily have room here to take advantage of scamper's Don case to push Don harder himself. He had plenty of ammunition. But despite exploring that direction a little bit, he didn't go for it. And his vote on Galron here is pretty much the nail in the coffin. Datisi was kind of the swing vote here, if he and/or Ausuka had ended up landing on Don, the end of day 1 looks very different.

[Coral]

scamper then has their argument with Meg. At the end of it, they say they want to vote Galron but doesn't want to E-1, so Meg does it. Which... probably was unexpected, actually, since they were previously voting scamper, just had a huge argument with them, and then scamper said that they wanted to vote Galron. It seems pretty possible to me that the argument could have been intentional from scum scamper, trying to draw Meg's attention and keep their vote from compromising on Galron (which they said they were willing to do in 626) due to the hope that they wouldn't want to work together with scamper.

Galron shows up with this post:

I'm not going to closely read the last 13 pages unless there's somehting I need to see. I did a skim through and I'm okay with limming donempire at this point. His whole e-1 thing doesn't read as genuine and his reliance on mech is easy to fake. I don't know who his buddies are but more votes on done please.

He clearly hasn't read things, but he probably has read the scum PT. And I would be willing to bet that somewhere in that scum PT is a post saying something along the lines of "i think i can get us an elim on don". That would be why Galron thinks that's where things are heading. The post, unfortunately for the scum team, looks awful, and is potentially game-losing if I'm right on this connection. I don't think that Datisi would be the one to make that post in the scum PT, because he had only 50 posts ago actively stepped away from the Don elim. scamper meanwhile has been setting things up for a Don elim for a while now. Predicting why Galron said that is the sort of speculation that I wouldn't want to bet the game on, but it is still a factor for me.

[Datisi]

Spoiler:

VOTE: meg

i think i wanna start here. i disliked some of their posts, and also the jump on galron in retrospect looks kinda weird. idk it's midnight, i'm trusting my past self right now.

ari(gamma)/ausuka/probscamper still town on play. and i think xayah is Town, Actually. i don't think scum!her, upon seeing galron be about to go down, starts putting me and ausuka oin her most bottom tier, because, uh. i really don't think that we're viable executions here.

coral i need to take a second look at too, i guess. coming tomorrow before my shift. most likely.

Xayah is my thought for partner atm. I feel like the 180 last minute feels like scum trying to catch the bus last minute.
The done kill is interesting, haven't considered the ramifications yet.

Is it overthinking to call this towny? I mean I'm not sure scum meg plays exactly this way. Like, definitely I can see them townreading scamper, but it feels like they're placing more of an emphasis on towncasing scamper vs scumcasimg xayah, whereas I feel like it's more intuitive for scum to do it in reverse. Does that make sense?

ehh... i lowkey got tmi vibes from their towncase post on scamper. because scum rn has to have reads anyway, and i think (1) it's easier to make correct townreads than scumreads, (2) it's easier to stay consistent with them, especially if you're towncasing someone who obviously isn't among the first people on the chopping block

i feel like it's meg because their play kind of just *fits* with what i'd assume buddy-with-galron would be doing. his slot started getting negative attention pretty early on in the game. your partner going down d1 is bad, in a micro normal it's Bad because you could just get fucked over with tprs. but i don't think there was anything to actually townread galron *on*, so what do you do? you hope for distractions. you stir up shit and hope people go to other slots. and i'm reminded now that meg did that both with ari in ausuka/ari, and with scamper.

this usually wouldn't be an issue by itself, but the fact that the arguments they've made about those two were not very good and were consistently getting called out as not very good and just kinda feel inflammatory is hm.

like, i guESS it's possible the partner was just not here and/or not doing anything to stop the wagon but i feel like it's somewhat unlikely both scum just decided to flop because. idk because the universe doesn't like me that much.

i'm not mad??? i'm not even 100% on meg being scum bc if i were i would be pushing much more strongly there. i'm just trying to Solve The Game, sorry if i came off condescending or something, wasn't my intention

@meg, can you give me some examples of coral posts that you found analytically/nuancedly townie?

i just half-read through her iso, and while her posts aren't

bad

, i don't think i've seen anything that struck me as "this is analytical in a way that i really struggle seeing scum fake this". i don't think she's scum for it obviously, but it does make me wanna see more elaboration on the claim she's town for it.

i do think 476 and 482 (calling ari/ausuka/meg townie when they were shitfighting) are +town, considering that galron was already getting suspicion on him, and ausuka had just called out more of his posts. like, coral was at the time voting xayah, and i don't think that wagon was very likely to go though. and she also said she's still suspicious of don, which had a bit more chance to go though, but galron was already voting there and i don't think(?) scum is eager to double up like that in that gamestate. and the next person she'd logically push would be galron, based on 279.

this also strikes me as a counterintuitive progression to have as scum with galron. it doesn't help galron, it doesn't look good as a bus.

i wish i was confident enough on xayah!town to try to hijack the thread, but i'm not. maybe i'm wrong. even if i'm not wrong, this flip is probably needed anyway.

i am interested in hearing xayah's thoughts on scamper, though. and if she has meta on gamma, i'm likely to just locktown that slot even further (and then blame xayah if we lose because of it).

mmm
gut is telling me it is Probably Just Meg Still, but

i really wanna see what meg and scamper put out first
and i wanna properly revisit a few events on day one to make sure i'm not retconning them in my mind

maybe massclaim today too, i'll decide tomorrow

ok off to bed, see ya in the morning

dats, for having a non-vt result on meg, it feels like you never really pressured them strongly or asked them to claim or tried to persuade other people on the read, and i have to ask why you didnt push that harder? i realize a non-vt from a nea is not a true guilty but on a reread i couldnt help but feel your approach was oddly lackadaisical

i did not want to make it obvious that my read on meg is informed with a result, because if they are scum and realized that, they would probably be trying to guess what kind of guilty i have and claim a role that explains it

like, if i out of the blue asked them to claim, that probably doesn't end well, whether they're town or scum

i was still trying to sort them with my result because i really did not want to shitpush a power role into claiming and i was trying to guess how hard i wanna go after them

also, those two quotes happened after meg softed/claimed non-vt so idk why you're including them

[Coral]

At this point the day is pretty much over and Galron is the elim. I don't think anything else from datisi or scamper is very relevant since they've both accepted his death. So, to summarize the biggest points from this:

1) Early game, Datisi went very hard on Phoenix, not only pushing him, but also not really allowing him to push the people that he wanted to push. Pressure on a scum partner early is useful when it allows you both to make more content in addition to the distancing. Datisi was shutting Phoenix's content down. It's a far more aggressive approach than I would expect scum to take in a 9p that has PRs.

2) Datisi switching off Galron when he replaces in, and scamper switching onto Galron. Both could be scum-motivated. The most important thing here to me is that Datisi's switch off mostly only makes sense if he is then afterwards trying to case people and move things towards a town elimination.

3) scamper laying the groundwork for a Don elimination. I think this looks especially bad with Galron showing up clearly thinking that a Don elim is likely. But even without that, the suspicion comes at a convenient time, they try to gather others to their cause, all while voting elsewhere in a way that looks like they're just sorting or emotional voting (on Datisi and Meg, respectively). All along, though, the main trajectory is towards allowing a Don push to be possible. If there were more options of who could be scum beyond just these two, I might consider how scamper as scum maybe could have gone all in to push Don harder and yet didn't, but the thing is...

4) ...Datisi did far less in terms of pushing town. Look at his ISO between the point where he unvoted Galron (228) and when he re-voted (701). I can't find any serious attempt to push town there. Even the vote on me is for a small reason, is mostly for pressure, and isn't really ever pursued any further. There's a lot of townreads of people, discussion, inquiries, pushing back on the scumreads people have on town. It all just looks like town trying to solve the game to me. I don't see any underlying agenda of someone who needs to find a way to eliminate town. When it gets to the point in the game where it looks like Don is a possible alternative, Datisi does find a couple reasons to be suspicious there, and then... votes for Galron. He doesn't take the town miselim that's sitting in front of him, he goes back to scum. He doesn't ever case or push anyone. And it's not like he's committed to the bus the whole time, he doesn't really ever take any efforts to make his position around the wagon look towny either.

We still have 2 days, so I'm open to hearing responses, but this is why overnight I thought it was scamper. Their posting today has swayed me a little, to be honest, but after going over it again and writing it all out like this I just have a really hard time seeing how day 1 makes more sense with a scum Datisi than with a scum scamper.

[Coral]

datisi how dare you interrupt, i wasn't finished

[Datisi]

those last two quotes*

i am looking forward to reading the coral walls, but that will have to wait until i get some coffee

[Datisi]

datisi how dare you interrupt, i wasn't finished

well have you considered putting it all into the same post smh

[Coral]

I am finished now though. that was longer than I thought

hopefully it isn't too rambly. I tried to cut out the filler and stick to the things I thought were important

[Coral]

datisi how dare you interrupt, i wasn't finished

well have you considered putting it all into the same post smh

I really did want to at least make some effort towards making it readable

[Coral]

and scamper, I obviously don't expect a response from you on everything. if you are town who thinks that I'm town who has come to the wrong conclusions, what I would most like to hear from you is why you think my reasons are flawed for thinking Datisi's play day 1 doesn't make sense if he's scum, and what you think his plans and motivations were