Micro 1062 | Divide and Conquer | Postgame

[Cephrir]

The fact that 574 does not include anything about me, but does include multiple points against BEAR, makes me wonder if fferyllt has already decided which one of us she's going to push.

@Cephrir, you've played with her before? How good of a scum player is she?

I think I have only ever seen her as town. I have read at least one scum game and found it quite impressive though.

[catboi]

Vote Count 1.13

fferyllt (3):

Cephrir, Dannflor, PookyTheMagicalBear

PookyTheMagicalBear (3):

Radja, Isis, SCRRRDBEAR

Radja (1):

Lucian

Dannflor (1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (1):

fferyllt

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is October 14 at 7:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-14 11:00:00)

Notes:

Happy scumday to Cephrir! Your account is now old enough to drive~
Isis is V/LA from Friday-Sunday

[fferyllt]

The fact that 574 does not include anything about me, but does include multiple points against BEAR, makes me wonder if fferyllt has already decided which one of us she's going to push.

@Cephrir, you've played with her before? How good of a scum player is she?

I think I have only ever seen her as town. I have read at least one scum game and found it quite impressive though.

Do you recall which game? I have a personal favorite, but it's from years of yore.

[Lucian]

p wild that people are actually trying to kill me now that the slot is replaced and your conclusion is that im partnered with it

Don't think I get this post? It seems to imply that people trying to kill you is somehow the result of the slot being replaced; I don't think that makes sense but I can't make out a different explanation for this?

[Cephrir]

The fact that 574 does not include anything about me, but does include multiple points against BEAR, makes me wonder if fferyllt has already decided which one of us she's going to push.

@Cephrir, you've played with her before? How good of a scum player is she?

I think I have only ever seen her as town. I have read at least one scum game and found it quite impressive though.

Do you recall which game? I have a personal favorite, but it's from years of yore.

It's that really townsided one, I think syr was a teammate?

[fferyllt]

could the SCRRDBEAR all caps posting style be a smokescreen for scum?

I don't like this.

VOTE: radja

I don't like this, either. reading further it's for 244. I dunno. the only actual scumreadish vibe i got from pooky's post was the radja gif. Hence my asking what his reads actually were at that point.

Dann in 264 this is another reverse trajectory. I don't remember if this was a feature in the first game I played with him. Homework assignment.

my head hasn't quite gotten into this game and that's unfortunate but a real thought i do have is that somnus is just scum giving up

I have the advantage of knowing his alignment, but this is counter to my impression of his scum game.

TBH I don't really have any good reason to scumread anyone in the big hood, so Pooky's lack of content is just what I'm going with for now.
I really don't see why people are giving him a pass here.

Second guess would probably be Cephrir? I think he might have attempted to pocket me immediately by townreading me. But maybe I'm just overthinking it.

Other than that, idk. If I end up getting eliminated, that's still a better choice than Somnus.

If ceph's townread concerned you here, I have bad news.

I like Lucien's 315 a lot. Knowing my propensities, as an OG player I would probably have started the game wanting to form reads without much regard to the neighborhoods.

Just going to note that reading all the predecessor universal scum read stuff is tilty. Some of these reads are honest, though.

[fferyllt]

this development makes me nervous

while cakez hasn't been impressive he gets eliminated a fair amount in general and is up against a lot of charisma. securing a big hood elim while it's still gettable is like, an absolute necessity for any somnus partner who might exist

don't particularly like that somnus' vote is camped out there either

Stuff doesn't hit the same way reading in catch up mode. I agree with your first sentence. I don't like the way you kinda deflated the pressure cakez might otherwise have felt.

But my argument doesn't have to be specific for this setup - SirCakez is lazily voting a universal scumread, without trying to sort around them and without giving thought to who is scum with them.

This is such bullshit are you actually scum

ugh.

Spoiler: Dann's 382 wall

You've been voting him for almost 10 pages. I don't approve of your strategy; but there's consistency there, it feels like something you actually believe in. While SirCakez suddenly decided that we gotta eliminate Somnus, and not only that, he also made sure that we all know he does not townread Somnus at all! Even though the only reason he had for townreading him was an associate read with you, which ended up being made from incorrect logic anyway! And he's not trying to understand my argument, he's just shading me and dismissing it! I don't like it!

Another reason why it rubbed me the wrong way is that SirCakez has been sorting within the big hood, and people were in the middle of running up Radja (who is in the big hood), and

that

is where SirCakez decides to start voting Somnus? Town knows that we need to catch the big-hood-scum to win. So the timing of voting for Somnus JUST AS people are actually voting someone up to sort them is...? I just don't get it from a town perspective.

There's only 1 scum in the big hood. So Cakez going for Somnus at the moment I was getting votes might not be the best play, but there's 0% we're scum together so I don't see why he's getting heat for it?

Thinking about it more I really think Cakez is town.

Okay, I lied, I have some thoughts

I feel like Somnus isn’t scum despite having zero logical or non-vibes based feelings to back that up. But I’ll try to explain how I feel about the current game-state regardless. I’ve been doing some rereading and it’s only be fueling my current idea of the game so hopefully someone can tell me which parts of this have merit and which are just conf-bias.

What I'm mostly worried about is being wrong here, Somnus flipping town and us having pretty much nothing to work with, aside from the 50/50 odds. Which pretty much forces us to look at the small hood AGAIN on day 2.

I don’t think this is a town thought. I don’t think any townie would believe that Somnus flipping town gives us nothing to work with. Especially because Lucian is so eye-blindingly obvious town in this game. I don’t think anyone has not town read Lucian at this point?

A Somnus town flip would break the game wide open and this post seems like a fake fear designed to look pro-town. If my current theory about the game is correct then this also fits because I don’t think scum want to flip Somnus right now. If Somnus is town, flipping them puts extreme pressure on a mafia member who is otherwise exerting a lot of thread presence.

If I’m wrong and Somnus is scum, I would expect Somnus’ partner to be ready and willing to bus them. I would honestly probably clear Radja in this scenario.

All that being said, if Somnus is town, I think scum in the big hood always has to be ready to turn and believably bus their buddy due to the inevitability of the Somnus flip and the nature of the setup.

Small Hood: ScaredBear an Lucian are probably town?
Unless:
- Scared Bear is mafia
- wants to make sure we vote in the small hood for the mafia in big hood to have better odds later
- will probably get voted out on day 2 if Somnus happens to be town? But that leaves the big hood wide open, which might be a good call for them.

Or I'm wrong about Lucian..

Big Hood: not a clue tbh

I guess I could vote Somnus, but I'm not convinced eliminating from the small hood is a good idea.

That’s why I find this hedging to be especially scummy if my scrrredbear!scum and Somnus!town theory is correct. Look at all the words Radja devotes to the possibility that BEAR might be scum. It reads partnery to me.

I am also unclear how Radja progressed from thinking eliminating in the small hood was good, to thinking eliminating in the big hood was more rewarding, to thinking eliminating in the small hood is actively bad.

=================

As far as BEAR goes, I don’t think the way he’s approached me has been in good faith. It’s a little hard for me to be objective about, but the way he jumped on my earlier wall post is very reminiscent of the types of votes I tend to make as scum when I perceive a townie making a “bad” post. There was a lack of any sort of real engagement or follow up with my post, even in a confrontational manner. Compare to Lucian and Cephrir, who had similarly negative reactions but also seemed genuinely curious and tried to understand me.

I think his most recent post assuming that the contradictions in my most recent posts are some sort of scummy mistake rather than me just having thoughts I’m keeping to myself or changing my mind on certain things is another example of BEAR not seeming to be actually curious about my alignment.

I still think the way he brushed off his Isis progression as just being, her posts got better, a little intentionally obtuse when he told me I was under thinking his original reasoning.

I also think BEAR seems to have a vested interest in not letting a Somnus wagon build up too much momentum because I don’t think BEAR believes anyone ever townreads him more than Lucian. Yes, I know BEAR already voted Somnus, but I don’t think the timing or context of that vote matches a real motivation to kill Somnus.

I’m worried BEAR is using the hood to pocket Lucian right now uncontested by Somnus. I honestly think that’s the only reason to use the small hood with scum still potentially in it. You are *only* hiding information from potential townies.

==============

I think Cakez is not as scummy as Radja now. I don’t know his meta but it sounds like this type of posting is not unusual. I don’t like that he seemed to be self aware that his posts were bad but ehhhh, I feel like I don’t have as much good reason to scum read him. I think Cakez not wanting to talk to Lucian, the most town read person in the game is +++++++town

Cephrir I just flat out town read now. Honestly, Cephrir scum read was born out of a desire to find the deep wolf. I think this was silly now.

Pooky has a cool guy persona to maintain and would never admit to trying at mafia, but I still maintain he’d be trying harder or at least have a higher presence here as scum

Overall, I don’t like how Radja has avoided voting me and also Cakez. Pooky is the safest scum read you can have right now besides Somnus. It reads like he doesn’t want to get his hands dirty.

Big Hood: Isis > Cephrir > Pooky > Cakez >>> Radja

Small Hood: Lucian >>> Somnus > BEAR

I would like to eliminate in [Radja, Somnus, BEAR]. I realize Somnus is probably much more palatable to people then BEAR, so I’m happy to elim there because I think it resolves the neighborhood either way. I also think Somnus being scum kinda clears Radja.

I think Radja/BEAR is the current team but the path of least resistance to getting that team might just be Somnus right now. Happy with any of the three wagons though

There's a lot of content to this post and I'm probably going to come back to it a few times. My initial question revolves here "All that being said, if Somnus is town, I think scum in the big hood always has to be ready to turn and believably bus their buddy due to the inevitability of the Somnus flip and the nature of the setup."

Who in the big hood do you see positioning in this manner?

----------------------

Apropos of nothing, the speculation about who my hypothetical scumpartner might be is brain cell taxing and probably affecting the way I'm absorbing the game.

[Dannflor]

"All that being said, if Somnus is town, I think scum in the big hood always has to be ready to turn and believably bus their buddy due to the inevitability of the Somnus flip and the nature of the setup."

Who in the big hood do you see positioning in this manner?

I believed it to be Radja

I think I elaborated on this in the post

[fferyllt]

The fact that 574 does not include anything about me, but does include multiple points against BEAR, makes me wonder if fferyllt has already decided which one of us she's going to push.

@Cephrir, you've played with her before? How good of a scum player is she?

I think I have only ever seen her as town. I have read at least one scum game and found it quite impressive though.

Do you recall which game? I have a personal favorite, but it's from years of yore.

It's that really townsided one, I think syr was a teammate?

2181. My main memory of that time was not being able to stay awake more than 3-4 hours at a time. I was motivated by being scum against Cabd in that game. It was a slog, though.

My own favorite scum game was in 2014. It involved winning against Cabd, nacho & zmuffin. I brought nacho and zmuffin to mylo.

[fferyllt]

"All that being said, if Somnus is town, I think scum in the big hood always has to be ready to turn and believably bus their buddy due to the inevitability of the Somnus flip and the nature of the setup."

Who in the big hood do you see positioning in this manner?

I believed it to be Radja

I think I elaborated on this in the post

Yeah. I probably should shut up and just read the game, but the thought in more generic terms interests me. I'm townreading Radja to this point, so I'm curious if this filter on big hood players had/has other positives in your opinion.

[fferyllt]

I'll be back in a few hours.

[Cephrir]

I think you're trying really hard to find a scumread on me.

[fferyllt]

I think you're trying really hard to find a scumread on me.

After our last 2 games, the bar is high. Before that, maybe I'd have settled on "good enough for day 1".

This game? It looks like the tail end of Day 1 may be my one and only. I doubt I'll head to the dead thread with a strong town read of you from what I've seen so far.

[Cephrir]

Sure, it could be that. It could also be that you think that's the most likely way for you to get out of this. c:

[SirCakez]

I think it could be time to throw in the towel on my Radja defense

[SirCakez]

We can probably just kill the Somnus slot ig

[SirCakez]

Tbh if we start limming a fuckton of town with Pooky on board the wagons then he is prob scum here LMAO

[Isis]

616 makes mor sense in a game where pooky has a zero vote wagon not a three vote wagon

[fferyllt]

Sure, it could be that. It could also be that you think that's the most likely way for you to get out of this. c:

1. I'm not trying to get out of this. I want town to be in decent shape tomorrow, and I wouldn't mind bragging rights if I manage a good solve.

2. Why would I think that?

[SirCakez]

616 makes mor sense in a game where pooky has a zero vote wagon not a three vote wagon

It was a random thought I had thinking about his meta not related to the VC

[SirCakez]

Actually fuck this
VOTE: pooky
He can go

[SirCakez]

Low-key biased because of Somnus but fferys posts feel so manufactured

[SirCakez]

Someone lol hammer Pooky and give him a taste of his own medicine

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

lol cakez scum

[SirCakez]