Mini 2284: The Thing Anonymous [The End?]

[Fuchs~]

Spoiler:

Copper went from "mostly a gutread" to "this kind of behaviour is really scummy" in literally 2 minutes, you don't see a contradiction there?

Cooper tries to justify this but I don't buy it:

I had not quite finished my backread when responding to Bennings, Norris started getting really trolly on page 8 which I didn't read during the "sheeping" comment, the "trolling" comment came after I read everything.

You finished the backread in the 2 minutes between those posts?

And the "we're not even on page 10" sounds like you were caught up:

I think windows is town for this post

Opportunistic how? It's mostly a gutread but we're not even on page 10.

"I forgot to mention the scumminess of the posting style" is an explanation I could have bought but "I was still rereading" I don't think fits with that timeline.

I think windows is town for this post

ebwop

Put my comment in the middle of the quote lol

Elaborate.

I probably could have zoomed in more to show what I actually was focused on

You finished the backread in the 2 minutes between those posts?

Looking at the time stamps to see if the timing makes sense, just is not something that scum him would do here.

Like, lets assume that he is scum and you are town. When he sees your response, that you posted one thing mid catch up, then followed up with it upon reading the more recent posts, then he immediately knows that you are telling the truth about that. There is no built in trigger here for him to scroll back to previous pages to investigate the timing of your posts, because he knows you are telling the truth and that you did in fact have the time to do what you claimed. He would not expect to find a contradiction, since he knows its true based on knowledge of your alignment.

Sure if he is scum, he might keep calling you scum here, and not just accept your answer. But going back to check the time stamps to see if you had enough time to read more is not the angle he is going to start with, when he knows that by default you are telling the truth and did have time enough time to read more.

---

No. This is a town reaction to your explanation for something that he found suspicious.

He had a suspicion -> you stated your explanation -> he scrolled back to see if your explanation made sense -> he did not think that it made sense, so he pointed it out for everyone to see.

To be clear, I disagree with his conclusion, but I think that it was a townie brain that led him there.

[Fuchs~]

Windows stonks go down because really that was just grasping at straws.

And like, as the person that he is suspecting, I get that the natural reaction to what feels like a bad push on you is this, there is just the question of why would he even need to be grasping at straws as scum to push you here.

At the time there was no wagon higher then 4 votes, and there were 3 total wagons with 3-4 votes.

With 3 different medium sized wagons, and 0 near-critical wagons, it is hard to imagine that scum!Windows was in a position where he was so desperate to get you miseliminated that he felt the need to be "grasping at straws." Just makes a lot more sense to me that it is a townie who is genuinely thinks that you are scum.

[Lars~]

Agree with pretty much all of that

[Lars~]

would like to hear from Nauls on his Fuchs read after the latest posting

[Nauls~]

Clark is on E-2. Do not vote vote him.

With scum being able to jump accounts, putting someone on E-1 means scum could safely hammer and then jump away.

Also the fact the moment where the current wagons get questioned and momentum towards a Windows wagon actually starts to form, 2 players randomly show up to reawaken the Clark wagon, which they’ve been quiet on for a while. Veeeery iffy on that.

VOTE: Windows

Fuchs in particular looks bad.
Windows only mentioned Fuchs once ever and it wasn’t even when talking about their alignment. Fuchs has been quiet on Windows’ alignment and suddenly decided they liked a single post from Windows, then following that up with the vote on Clark saying they think all other wagons are on town.
May I remind you that Fuchs very briefly calling a single one of Windows’ post townie is his entire stance there.
Doesn’t help that every Fuchs post since 83 has varied from meh to bad and the Palmer push still looks terrible.

Pedit: 400 kind of looks more like scum defending a townie than scum/scum actually, which is interesting. Though it could just be Fuchs trying to justify a read that has no actual justification because he just made it up, regardless of Windows’ alignment.
Ppedit: 401 disagree. Scum can find things they assume to be gotchas and cling onto them, it’s not a purely town thing.
Pppedit: Timing!

[Nauls~]

*do not vote them

[Lars~]

I think you're town but our reads seem to be pretty upside down from each other. I'll try to reread tomorrow to see if I can understand better where you're coming from, but I don't agree with most of what you've just said (maybe obviously, as one of the people who voted Clark)

I don't think I've talked much about Windows, but I lean town, and don't find the arguments against him compelling. Fuchs having a similar pattern isn't suspicious at all to me.

[Nauls~]

Windows stonks go down because really that was just grasping at straws.

And like, as the person that he is suspecting, I get that the natural reaction to what feels like a bad push on you is this, there is just the question of why would he even need to be grasping at straws as scum to push you here.

At the time there was no wagon higher then 4 votes, and there were 3 total wagons with 3-4 votes.

With 3 different medium sized wagons, and 0 near-critical wagons, it is hard to imagine that scum!Windows was in a position where he was so desperate to get you miseliminated that he felt the need to be "grasping at straws." Just makes a lot more sense to me that it is a townie who is genuinely thinks that you are scum.

If scum sees what they think is a contradiction or a potential gotcha on a townie, they won’t think “ehhh actually there’s no urgency so I just won’t call this out”, they’ll still call it out. The current gamestate is pretty meaningless, scum will almost always call out something that will push their agenda.
Also I’m pretty sure Fuchs just straight up knows that Copper is a townie here

[Nauls~]

116 and 146 still sit at the back of my mind, really don’t like those.

To anyone townreading Fuchs: why?

The only thing I see in their favour is that they use a lot of words, which good for them, but it’s meaningless when the actual substance of those words is so questionable.

[Lars~]

Also the fact the moment where the current wagons get questioned and momentum towards a Windows wagon actually starts to form, 2 players randomly show up to reawaken the Clark wagon, which they’ve been quiet on for a while. Veeeery iffy on that.

I just don't really see this gamestate read as accurate at all, you're phrasing it like it's a general trend but it's literally just Palmer

I believe that you see things that way but I think you're wrong

[Lars~]

116 and 146 still sit at the back of my mind, really don’t like those.

To anyone townreading Fuchs: why?

The only thing I see in their favour is that they use a lot of words, which good for them, but it’s meaningless when the actual substance of those words is so questionable.

I'm townreading him because I disagree with you that the substance is questionable. I think his posts make sense and feel like they're coming from a place of town thought, I just don't really agree with the objections you have about them

I don't think there's anything wrong with the push on Palmer. The posts you linked seem totally reasonable to me. I think the most recent ones are solvy and generally correct. I like that he is paying attention to detail on things and it just generally feels like he's trying to sort out people's alignments rather than posting just to post.

[Nauls~]

Hmm, okay. My disagreement with them on most things may be clouding my judgment to some extent, but idk, they just feel so incredibly off to me.

[Fuchs~]

Also the fact the moment where the current wagons get questioned and momentum towards a Windows wagon actually starts to form, 2 players randomly show up to reawaken the Clark wagon, which they’ve been quiet on for a while. Veeeery iffy on that.

Saying that I randomly showed up to do this, and attributing it to windows getting votes ignores the context. Like I was out of thread long enough to get a prod message from the mod, and so the time I was not "randomly showing up," I was catching back up after being away for a while.

Fuchs in particular looks bad.
Windows only mentioned Fuchs once ever and it wasn’t even when talking about their alignment. Fuchs has been quiet on Windows’ alignment and suddenly decided they liked a single post from Windows, then following that up with the vote on Clark saying they think all other wagons are on town.
May I remind you that Fuchs very briefly calling a single one of Windows’ post townie is his entire stance there.

And like... yes?

I did not have a read on Windows, then I read a post that made me think he was likely to be town, and then explained why when asked.

But you said that like it was an accusation lol

[Fuchs~]

Going from this stance on Clark :

MacReady, Palmer

Garry, Blair

Copper, Childs, Lars,

Clark, Bennings

Norris, Fuchs, Windows

{snip}

On the flip side, the Clark wagon composition is good enough to make Clark look worse.

(snip}

Kind of like Clark’s 58 and 60, tbh. The annoyance seems to come more from a town POV than a scum one. 239 looks decent I’d say? Don’t like 295 though, it feels fabricated. Also the way the Clark wagon has gradually died down feels off, like scum purposely stopped paying attention to it. Maybe it has something to do with a shift out of the early game wagons, but I feel like Copper’s still being seriously discussed in spite of that. Maybe it’s cause Clark got replaced, but I also don’t see much from Clark 2.0 that looks very town indicative.

To *big text* *all caps* "sweet jesus save this man" based on me voting him is WILD

[Fuchs~]

Windows stonks go down because really that was just grasping at straws.

And like, as the person that he is suspecting, I get that the natural reaction to what feels like a bad push on you is this, there is just the question of why would he even need to be grasping at straws as scum to push you here.

At the time there was no wagon higher then 4 votes, and there were 3 total wagons with 3-4 votes.

With 3 different medium sized wagons, and 0 near-critical wagons, it is hard to imagine that scum!Windows was in a position where he was so desperate to get you miseliminated that he felt the need to be "grasping at straws." Just makes a lot more sense to me that it is a townie who is genuinely thinks that you are scum.

If scum sees what they think is a contradiction or a potential gotcha on a townie, they won’t think “ehhh actually there’s no urgency so I just won’t call this out”,

they’ll still call it out. The current gamestate is pretty meaningless, scum will almost always call out something that will push their agenda.
Also I’m pretty sure Fuchs just straight up knows that Copper is a townie here

This was not my point at all.

My point is that when I see someone making arguments that come across as "grasping at straws," such as this timing argument, then it is likely either: a townie who is kinda tunneled and seeing evidence everywhere they look OR scum in a desperate position.

There is no reasons to think that if he were scum he would be in a desperate position, therefore, him being town confirmation baising his own read when looking back over it makes more sense to me.

[Fuchs~]

116 and 146 still sit at the back of my mind, really don’t like those.

The long and short of those posts was : when I look at the way he was going about his sorting, it looked like fake sorting vs genuine sorting thoughts.

Like I saw what looked like sorting for the purpose of looking like you are sorting.

It seems like you disagreed with every single line I had to say in those posts though, so idk man, feels kind of pointless to jump back into re-explaining my thoughts there

[Windows~]

Or maybe these are three town wagons and the things don't give two shits about pushing town wagons when there's no threat for them. But I dunno.

I think there will always be more resistance on a scum wagon because the bussing incentives don't exist in this game - you can't really get towncred in a game where scum can jump into townread slots. So there's no incentive to bus your teammates to look good because looking good isn't useful.

On the flip side there IS incentive to hard defend your teammates for shitty reasons because associatives don't help as much when you can just jump out of your own body if your teammate gets flipped - you don't have to worry about looking bad

I'd say this is only partially true because I think it might be harder for Things to get away with assimilating undetected than you're assuming here. But I like that you're considering how the game dynamics affect scum motivation, that post feels towny to me.

[Nauls~]

Going from this stance on Clark :

MacReady, Palmer

Garry, Blair

Copper, Childs, Lars,

Clark, Bennings

Norris, Fuchs, Windows

{snip}

On the flip side, the Clark wagon composition is good enough to make Clark look worse.

(snip}

Kind of like Clark’s 58 and 60, tbh. The annoyance seems to come more from a town POV than a scum one. 239 looks decent I’d say? Don’t like 295 though, it feels fabricated. Also the way the Clark wagon has gradually died down feels off, like scum purposely stopped paying attention to it. Maybe it has something to do with a shift out of the early game wagons, but I feel like Copper’s still being seriously discussed in spite of that. Maybe it’s cause Clark got replaced, but I also don’t see much from Clark 2.0 that looks very town indicative.

To *big text* *all caps* "sweet jesus save this man" based on me voting him is WILD

“Clark is suspicious” and “We shouldn’t put people on E-1 because this setup is particularly conducive to scum sniping a hammer” aren’t contradictory ideas

[Nauls~]

Like it was pretty clear in my post, the reason I don’t want Clark voted isn’t because of you, it’s because we could get fucked over pretty hard, especially considering the game’s most important mechanic.

[Nauls~]

And like... yes?

I did not have a read on Windows, then I read a post that made me think he was likely to be town, and then explained why when asked.

But you said that like it was an accusation lol

I say it like it’s an accusation because I would expect your read on someone who’s posted substantial amounts of content to be based off of more than a single post of theirs. I don’t really see how you can form a read on Windows off of that singular post when there’s plenty more.

[Windows~]

Windows stonks go down because really that was just grasping at straws.

And like, as the person that he is suspecting, I get that the natural reaction to what feels like a bad push on you is this, there is just the question of why would he even need to be grasping at straws as scum to push you here.

At the time there was no wagon higher then 4 votes, and there were 3 total wagons with 3-4 votes.

With 3 different medium sized wagons, and 0 near-critical wagons, it is hard to imagine that scum!Windows was in a position where he was so desperate to get you miseliminated that he felt the need to be "grasping at straws." Just makes a lot more sense to me that it is a townie who is genuinely thinks that you are scum.

If scum sees what they think is a contradiction or a potential gotcha on a townie, they won’t think “ehhh actually there’s no urgency so I just won’t call this out”, they’ll still call it out. The current gamestate is pretty meaningless, scum will almost always call out something that will push their agenda.
Also I’m pretty sure Fuchs just straight up knows that Copper is a townie here

The 'grasping at straws' comment reads to me like whatever the tell is for when scum feel like they've been caught for the wrong reasons.

Copper's other posts since then don't give me reason to move my vote elsewhere:

Honestly I’m not the biggest fan of the votes that have piled onto Norris, but Norris also hasn’t given me any reason to feel any better about them than before.

Yeah I'm getting LHF vibes

Doesn't seem like genuine LHF town and more like scum trolling to look like LHF. Subtle difference.

Just restating their "Norris's trolling is scummy" point.

Or maybe these are three town wagons and the things don't give two shits about pushing town wagons when there's no threat for them. But I dunno.

Possible but I'm like 95% sure there is at least one scum between those 3 wagons. imo it's Norris.

Including their own wagon in the count, I don't know how to read that. Compared to "I'm 95% sure there's scum in one of the other two wagons". I'm trying not to be tunnelled here but gut feel is this feels off from how a towny would say it. Also maybe there's an element of "look I'm agreeing to people choosing among the three of us" which to my mind means if Copper is scum both Norris and Clark are likely town since I think if Copper were buddied with either of them it would be more tempting to agree with the "maybe all three are town" angle.

I think windows is town for this post

ebwop

Put my comment in the middle of the quote lol

Elaborate.

"Elaborate" isn't bad in itself but it's like, a lazy way to contribute. If Copper's other posts recently offered more then this wouldn't seem suspicious but it feels to me like scum skating by without doing much.

[Windows~]

Like it was pretty clear in my post, the reason I don’t want Clark voted isn’t because of you, it’s because we could get fucked over pretty hard, especially considering the game’s most important mechanic.

Something else that at least needs to be taken into consideration, is that this game may involve power roles. So if someone is run up to E-1 and claims a useful power role then that is extra temptation for scum to quickhammer.
I wonder if we should declare intent to vote, if someone is E-2, and if they are E-2 with two people declaring intent then they claim?

[Childs~]

Like it was pretty clear in my post, the reason I don’t want Clark voted isn’t because of you, it’s because we could get fucked over pretty hard, especially considering the game’s most important mechanic.

Something else that at least needs to be taken into consideration, is that this game may involve power roles. So if someone is run up to E-1 and claims a useful power role then that is extra temptation for scum to quickhammer.
I wonder if we should declare intent to vote, if someone is E-2, and if they are E-2 with two people declaring intent then they claim?

this is absolutly correct

I cast my imaginary vote on Clark

[Windows~]

Something I noticed while rereading Copper's iso (ironically to see if I actually am being over-suspicious):

Elaborate.

Gut and sheeping

Lars

.

OK Norris is scummy, scummier than Garry.
VOTE: Norris

Can these actually be explained? They don't actually mean anything to me right now.

Garry = tone, Nauls and Lars seem to be trying pretty hard to solve even this early and that's +town imo, Windows mostly on tone, Norris on tone and sheeping my townread

Nauls

.

Prediction: if Copper is a Thing, Lars and Nauls are both town.

[petapan]

Prodding Garry.