okay, first things first, i wrote up this post during the night to outline my thoughts on the game, then i posted it in the supporters pt in case i died, and since i have not died i am posting it here:
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alright, i'm posting this a bit earlier than planned since i have to start getting ready now and so that i can phonepost on the way to uni if someone wants to last-minute discuss stuff with me. you people mostly know my current thoughts, but might as well have them in one place. some of these... do feel kind of circular and dependent on each other, but fucc it i've just had 2 very ez towngames, might as well be having a third one
things that i want to note: this was written before math elaborated on mastina read he did recently, i don't have the time to check it real close but i have the vibe i won't be changing my mind much there. i'm not yet sure how i feel about unowen from what he's posted during the night. i'm inclined to think he's not very likely s/s with johnny, but i'd have to check how much anti-johnny sentiment was there before he made the overthrow proposal (i feel like there was at least some?) and what the vibes were in the kingsguard pt... but i don't have time for either rn so if i'm ded take with grain of salt etc etc
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1. town: me, baltar, guiltylion, andresvmb - i will not be spending time explaining this.
2. probably
![:tm:](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/2122.svg)
town: firebringer, titus, mathblade, enchant, shea, andante
3. uhhhh: lady lambdadelta, dannflor
4. scummy vibes: furtiveglance, drapion
5. scum: roden, unowen, mastina, johnny
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firebringer
- this is moreso gut than anything else, but there have been a few moments where firebringer struck me as genuine in a way i don't remember him in his scumgame. the way he voted dwlee with me day 1 didn't feel like s/s. the jump onto guiltylion under the guise of "sheeping lukewarm" just feels way too out there to be a scum plan to me. and his actions in the council pt just give me this sense of like. pro-townness. he said he wants to keep the paranoia in there to a minimum and hunt outside. first, this is very risky for scum to say because it activates the natural "you pocketing me?" response. second, unless the council is chock full of scum (which i don't think it is), this doesn't benefit him much.
titus
- i don't think she's scum with dwlee. she had an opportunity to vote maria-slot on d1 instead of dwlee, she didn't. she entered d2 voting dwlee again. i know titus can bus, but i don't feel any of the flashy towncred-grabby voting that i felt when i've seen her bus before. i don't feel like she's setting anything up. it looks like she's doing her own thing and collecting information her way. and the stuff against andres feels really ??? if he's town (which i am assuming he is currently)
mathblade
- okay so usually when he's scum, i get this bad vibe from him and i feel like that he's pushing the game in a purposefully bad direction. like, i disagree with some of his takes. but for example shea stuff, i don't think scum-him genuinely thinks he's selling anything by pointing out the timestamp stuff. i just feel like he genuinely believes in what he's seeing. if the game starts going to a completely wrong direction after his influence, meaning i currently have the game mostly wrong too, i'll revisit this.
enchant
- so my way of reading enchant is "scum by default until he does something that shows a modicum of town effort". he had a few moments in the supporters pt where he seemed genuinely interested in what was happening in the game.
shea
- i'm gonna quote a few posts about him i made in the supporters pt. the first quote is responding to mathblade talking about how he thinks scum is more likely to be a dwlee defender and how shea fits that.
i think this depends on how likely it is that the game is being run by townies. like, if townies are running the game, then i can more easily see scum be desperate to save dwlee and defended them loudly so lol? reasons. if scum is in a relatively good spot, they maybe don't have to do that.
...but if shea is scum, then he can *make* his team be in a good spot, no? unless like, the entire scumteam other than him is completely potatoing the game.
yeah, i'm not sure if i actually see scum-shea saving dwlee like he did unless the entire team is in complete desperation more. which they really shouldn't be in if king is scum.
like, i was thinking of the scum strategy of "do as much damage as you can as fast as you can" if you're scum with a clear timer on your lifespan. but i don't think scum-king *has* to fit into that necessarily, it's not a given he's gonna be overthrown anytime soon.
maybe makes sense if the successor is also scum, but we always flip johnny first there anyway...
basically, i think shea hard-defending dwlee makes sense only if there's a timer on shea's life, and he's trying to do as much damage as possible to town before he dies, AND the rest of the council is mostly town so scum won't have much influence after he's gone. this... just doesn't feel likely. i don't think he'd be entering desparation mode here.
this read needs revisiting if: a lot of very-low-influence slots flip scum, and it starts being apparent there's a deepwolf / someone that's escaping us.
andante
- uhh i'm still kind of sticking to my read of her being too out there to be scum. like, going from claiming that there's no way that dwlee is scum, to then jumping ship from pushing them at the lateish moment? making a new readslist and claiming they're town actually??? like, i generally think that scum has more self-awareness than to do that. and like, i don't actually hate her votes on roden/unowen and her reads in the council pt, so.
lady lambdadelta
- lol idk. i'm tempted to put her a hair above null because ik she's a good scum player and i am skeptical she does *literally nothing* while a buddy like dwlee is choking, but like... i recall her saying somewhere that she has had games where she does nothing as both scum and town, so. in the null pile she stays.
dannflor
- i am conflicted whether to put this in this tier or the above tier. i still think my town case on him is *fine*, but... in the supporters thread, a while ago, baltar called out dann's 1722 for being weird, and i kind of agree. like he's preflipping me as town in his head. and the retrospect of "this only makes sense as s/s" (1720) with dwlee flipping red and me *checks role pm* being town, is kinda icky. and now i'm ctrl+f'ing "dann" in dwlee's iso and wondering if they're trying to "tie us together" by mostly talking about both of us as scumreads... tho this is approaching tinfoil territory again. idk this stays in null ig.
furtiveglance
- the thing that strikes off the most about them is that they feel like scum who saw a townie acting weird (firebringer) and then was annoyed that they can't get the townie yeeted for acting weird. see beginning of day 2 and their treatment of firebringer. and their associated with dwlee are like... not great. they voted guiltylion on d1, and the explanation they provided in 2213 is really bad now that luke and dwlee have flipped and guiltylion is very very likely town. they tried to counterwagon for dwlee on d2 as well. and they spoke basically nothing about dwlee on d2.
drapion
- i think there was someone hard defending dwlee. they fit. the reason they're not lower on this list is because i am still kind of skeptical scum does both of [not caring about the game much, not influencing early, not trying to get townread] and [try to steer the execution hard away from a buddy, be surprise pikachu face when they're not getting townread]. but their reads were so utterly nonsense, 2570 is horrible. the townread of dwlee is never explained.
roden
- quoting another post of mine from the supporters thread:
the way i think about it, i think roden can definitely be scum, because like... imagine you're roden replacing into a scum-penguin slot. penguin is generally suspected already, penguin's associates with dwlee have been called out as nonsense multiple times already. dwlee is on the verge of death.
bussing in that scenario likely gives you zero (0) towncred. so what do you do? find reasoning to defend dwlee. it doesn't matter if it looks ridiculous, because there is no way to go but up. either you pull off a save of the century and save dwlee, or you come off as "surely scum wouldn't do this lol" after dwlee flips
(sidenote, this is something that propped up in my last scumgame where i got townread for... really bad reasons, and i think it's valuable to think about: town often thinks "why would scum do x in this situation? they wouldn't" but they fail to consider "what are the consequences of not doing x?" and those consequences are often... Worse)
also i think trying to turn the wagon on titus is a... kind of scummy and opportunistic move. becuase titus was in that limbo where she wasn't generally townie, but iirc her associates with dwlee are Not Bad. so that's a flip you probably can't get after dwlee flips. (i'll take a look at her later to see if i'm making this up but i didn't wanna have this thought escape me in the meantime)
i have checked if my thoughts on titus were right, i think they were. his stuff on dwlee feels willfully ignorant, stuff on gl feels bad faith, it feels like he's trying to potentially start a new wagon on titus while also being able to jump on gl if that opportunity opens again.
unowen
- i think his d2 is really scummy. i called him out in the supporters pt to ask where his head is really at, because i noticed that for a good part of day 2, he's been posting things, but they're mostly questions that don't go anywhere and don't say anything about alignments. this is kind of similar to the read i had on dwlee - i think unowen has claimed to have been busy somewhere, which is fine, but if you're busy town, your thought process still goes through in your posting. this... very much didn't have any, it felt like busywork., like he didn't know what to do. and the vote on dwlee on d2 is like. really awkward and only happens once it's obvious they're likely going down.
mastina
- okay, so i've been procrastinating on this read because i don't actually know how to read mastina. but, i currently feel like shea is town and the council is pretty townie (sans johnny who's basically powerless anyway) and it would make sense that there was initiative to save dwlee and have someone run counter to the threat of the game being solved. and her reasons don't make sense to the point i struggle to imagine even mastina saying them. scum bus all the fucking time. i recall her commenting in the dead pt of defcon(was it called that?) that she died d1 only because of unnecessary bussing. she can't be not aware of that. and the post right after that is arguing that there's no counterwagon. which, for one is false, for two it's possible that scum are not *trying* to make a concentrated effort elsewhere - this is not mentioned.
the reasons for townreading dwlee are nonsense, surely i don't have to explain that. ditto on vpb and gl. i think it makes sense why these would be coming from scum, though - i don't think baltar and guiltylion are very flippable after dwlee has flipped. and it's insanely dangerous to have the two of them running the game if they have actual quality reads. and her engagements with both of them are just so bad faith.
johnny
- i think this slot is very likely scum. unwnd dropped into the game trying to shade me and save dwlee. read 1856, then read the exchange between the two of them on page 84 and tell me this doesn't look like theater. johnny has been entirely underwhelming so far and he kind of reminds me of this mini normal we played recently where he was scum in. he claimed to want to scumhunt in the council pt but his contributions are lackluster at best. he claims to townread andante because she wouldn't bus this hard, but looking at her iso i don't get the feeling she was bussing hard at all. he claims andres is scummy to him, but there is no explanation, it's just "vibes" and "i'm keeping my eye on him".
also, there's this point that i posted in the supporters pt on tuesday afternoon about a convo johnny and i had in the council pt. he = johnny, you = baltar.
there is also this chat he had with me that happened about 48 hours ago. reminder that he was defending dwlee at the time and calling their wagon an apathy wagon. (this post is addressed to baltar, i didn't finish it in time before pedits)
he said he found mastina's scumcase of you/gl *really* compelling. i asked him what case, and it boiled down to her saying how you and gl were trying to rush the dwlee vote through on d1. i asked him WHY is that scummy. he argued you two knew what would happen if you pushed shea. i once again asked him why he thinks that's scummy and what does he think that town-you and town-gl should have done in that situation.
he says you shouldn't have called his bluff and that it's possible that was scum motivation. because he did not understand why the two of you are so sure of dwlee scum that you're endagering your own slots. i specifically said that yes, you two are endagering your own slots, so what the fuck is the scum motive to do that.
his idea was that you were trying to get the king to exe maria and to make this overthrowing conversation happen.
i point out that "overthrowing" only ever happens if dwlee flips red, because shea doesn't look like a buddy saver if dwlee green.
he responds that he doesn't think dwlee def goes through. the convo ends there as i didn't bother to respond further.
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my issue with this is that he's, in the main thread, arguing why dwlee is town (or rather why the wagon on them is bad, which is even worse), and he's trying to turn me against you two. but his reasoning for you two being scum, when taken to its natural conclusion, HAS to contain dwlee being scum. by his own explenation, otherwise nothing makes sense.
so i think he's scum choking. making it up as he goes.