House of the Dragon - Game Over!

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I apologize. I should make it clear when im saying i want a scum datisi case. I want people to proclaim it so i can analyze if they believe it or not.

No, I don't think i will be swayed. I am not asking someone to sway me right now.
My purpose of asking this is two fold:
1) I want to see how much people actually believe datisi is scum because that will help me further read them better post datisi scum flip
2) I want to see where there COULD be gaps in my townread datisi that im blind to.

Do i think im going to be swayed? No. But right now this proposal of wagon has gotten people to jump on that is unreadable for the lot of them. I don't think i can figure out a motivation for this datisi push based on how its presented.

If you will never be swayed, then why should we care.

It isn't you we need to convince and we would infact be WASTING OUR TIME

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Why would anyone give you anything without the promise of return?

If you won't play ball with us... We won't play ball with you.

[GuiltyLion]

So its a simple follow the cop world with a town cop, and scum have been leaving the cop and all of his checks alive, instead trying to shoot FB or fireisred last night

we have been protecting the cop until yesterday.
for all scum knew one of datisi checks has also been protected (they weren't, but for all we know they don't know that).
To go and say 'its weird that dats and all the cop clears are alive' is like....That is the point of us having the JK/Doc guard them? What even is this argument.

Its just paranoia. Thats all there is to all of this. And we know scum have made what we all thought were questionable kills.

Ugh. Why do i bother.

but you can't protect all of Datisi/Mastina/Titus, especially with a JK which would make Datisi/Mastina useless

why has scum not tried to shoot Mastina? not tried to shoot Titus?

last night the kingsguard was Titus, GL, LLD, furtive, if Datisi is town and it's a GL/furtive team that seems like a pretty sweet time to make a run at Lord Commander by killing conf-town Titus

I feel you on no one has cased Datisi yet. I might try to do that if it will genuinely change your mind. but one issue is Datisi is a good mafia player and I wasn't really even suspecting him myself until he's had 3 checks and not given us any mafia with them. I doubt I could currently make a super convincing lock scum case even if I knew personally for a fact he was scum!

Regardless, a lack of a traditional mafia psychology case doesn't mean the mechanical argument is not good.

[Firebringer]

i don't think its a waste of time to get people to make a scum case of datisi if they believe datisi is scum. But w/e.
the way you present ur last post suggests it will be a 100% horse shot shoehorned case that you made out of thin air. So i guess i would just not believe u even believe ur case when u made it. Feels sort of poison well but w/e.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

i don't think its a waste of time to get people to make a scum case of datisi if they believe datisi is scum. But w/e.
the way you present ur last post suggests it will be a 100% horse shot shoehorned case that you made out of thin air. So i guess i would just not believe u even believe ur case when u made it. Feels sort of poison well but w/e.

I'm saying that I can make myself believe whatever I need to believe to succeed. It won't make it any more true or false than it currently is.

The argument is mechanical and logical. I don't need a read on Datisi to be correct.

Asking for one is futile because any scum can fabricate... Just like I can.

Engage with our argument or disagree but if you wont be swayed I see no reason to give you what you request i have 0 incentive.

[Firebringer]

so are u saying i won't be able to tell a scum fabricated case from a town one?
I feel like that is counter intuitive to how mafia is played.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

so are u saying i won't be able to tell a scum fabricated case from a town one?
I feel like that is counter intuitive to how mafia is played.

I'm saying your inherent bias will seek to disprove any Datisi scum case because you are not open to believing Datisi is scum.

So at best you are going to try and decide which people who agree with the mechanical argument are good at casing and which are bad.

Neither of which are indicative of scum. You should know that.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You have fabricated a scenario in which you will ask for info and then rely on your prior gane bias and end up guessing based on which cases you "believe" but the strength of a case's argument has never been an indicator of alignment beyond whether they arr correct or not.

You learn nothing but your own bias.

[Firebringer]

No, i am deliberately trying to figure out who is actually motivated to lim a scum!datisi here and who is just riding on ur mechanic theory and using you as cover tbh.

I don't know why you cant let me just push this question to people. ur kind of deliberately pushing against me trying to solve the motivations of people who agree with you. Because it can hurt the chances datisi flips.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

No, i am deliberately trying to figure out who is actually motivated to lim a scum!datisi here and who is just riding on ur mechanic theory and using you as cover tbh.

I don't know why you cant let me just push this question to people. ur kind of deliberately pushing against me trying to solve the motivations of people who agree with you. Because it can hurt the chances datisi flips.

Yes, because it hurts the chances Datisi flips. And you know it does this. Which is your actual intent in doing this.

Because you gain nothing but your own bias from doing this.

So why would I let you do it unchecked?

[Firebringer]

I already am aware of my bias. What are we even arguing about.
Ive stated im not here to ask to be swayed. I am here to figure out who really believes datisi is scum.
I get you think thats unimportant and won't net me any results. But why can't i do this.
Because i won't do what you want? Ok great. Thanks

[Firebringer]

and ive already agreed to flipping datisi tomorrow.
So this whole "firebringer won't play ball" and "firebringer just wants control". Its like projection to me.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I already am aware of my bias. What are we even arguing about.
Ive stated im not here to ask to be swayed. I am here to figure out who really believes datisi is scum.
I get you think thats unimportant and won't net me any results. But why can't i do this.
Because i won't do what you want? Ok great. Thanks

Because you know it will be used to prevent a Datisi flip, which is your end goal.

And because you have 0 desire to be swayed, nothing you gain holds value either.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

and ive already agreed to flipping datisi tomorrow.
So this whole "firebringer won't play ball" and "firebringer just wants control". Its like projection to me.

And what happens when Datisi has a guilty tomorrow FB?

You gonna kill Datisi before the guilty?

[GuiltyLion]

Fire I'm sympathetic to what you're asking I think my thing is just, this is a paranoia / playing it safe lim. In a vacuum or a different game where nobody had any roles or results, Datisi would not be my number one suspect (that'd probably still be Mastina lol). The fundamental reason I want to lim him

is

mechanics based moreso than anything that registered for me in his play. It's suspicious that he keeps green checking these scummy slots. It's suspicious that the doctor or any of Datisi's clears haven't died. It's suspicious that a bunch of people are piling on furtive in spite of what feels like townie play from him today. It's suspicious that our overall POE pool is only like 7 players at the max (means if the team is in those players, they are passively just losing the game via bad NKs while people get cleared), especially once I factor in that I have various reasons to townread almost all of those players. The solve doesn't feel right.

These factors make me think the gamestate as a whole is off and the quickest way to get the most information on what's going on in the gamestate, even if it's to resolve paranoia and confirm that the game is actually nearly POE'd out, is to flip Datisi.

[Firebringer]

and ive already agreed to flipping datisi tomorrow.
So this whole "firebringer won't play ball" and "firebringer just wants control". Its like projection to me.

And what happens when Datisi has a guilty tomorrow FB?

You gonna kill Datisi before the guilty?

depends. If we flip scum today, then might just flip the guilty tomorrow. If we don't flip scum today. Fine will still flip datisi tomorrow even if guilty.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

and ive already agreed to flipping datisi tomorrow.
So this whole "firebringer won't play ball" and "firebringer just wants control". Its like projection to me.

And what happens when Datisi has a guilty tomorrow FB?

You gonna kill Datisi before the guilty?

depends. If we flip scum today, then might just flip the guilty tomorrow. If we don't flip scum today. Fine will still flip datisi tomorrow even if guilty.

I wonder. I really wonder if that is true. I certainly don't believe it.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Titus is already saying elo+1 day. That isn't tomorrow it's the day after.

So what happens then? She says let's flip the guilty we do and then it's oops Datisi was scum and now we need to find scum in mastina/titus/I with only one mistake to make and lets say its just datisi/titus/??? For a second. Mastina and I are town in this world.

Do we win this game? I don't see us winning. Mastina will die we will go to ELO and we won't have space to miss again.

[Firebringer]

if we don't flip scum today. Say furtive flips town.
My reads have been trash. So i can't just rley on them.
That is where i am at

[Lady Lambdadelta]

if we don't flip scum today. Say furtive flips town.
My reads have been trash. So i can't just rley on them.
That is where i am at

Do you know how fucked we are if it's Datisi/Titus/Shea for example if we don't kill Datisi today? Not saying it is, but that is a functional possible team.

We lose to that if we don't make our move today.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

FB I'm not trying to be difficult without purpose. I promise.

I even half expect I could be wrong and worrying for nothing.

But... It's wrong not to do this now. And I have to lean into it hard.

[GuiltyLion]

or imagine Datisi/Mastina/Titus

where scum LC can overthrow King without majority vote (this would make a lot of sense to me as scum ability as LC)

we lim town!furtive today - 12 players remain, 9v3

FB or fireisred or LLD dies, 11 players remain, 8v3

Datisi has a "guilty" on town, town trusts the result and miselims - 10 players remain, 7v3

Titus overthrows at night, scum kills a townie - 8 players remain, 5v3

Mastina immediately executes - 7 players remain, 4v3

scum kills at night, 6 players remain, 3v3 gg, mafia win

You actually can't lim a guilty result in this world, but I don't know if I trust that people would lim Datisi here

[Firebringer]

i have to get back to work. be back later tonight

[Thestatusquo]

So its a simple follow the cop world with a town cop, and scum have been leaving the cop and all of his checks alive, instead trying to shoot FB or fireisred last night

we have been protecting the cop until yesterday.
for all scum knew one of datisi checks has also been protected (they weren't, but for all we know they don't know that).
To go and say 'its weird that dats and all the cop clears are alive' is like....That is the point of us having the JK/Doc guard them? What even is this argument.

Its just paranoia. Thats all there is to all of this. And we know scum have made what we all thought were questionable kills.

Ugh. Why do i bother.

but you can't protect all of Datisi/Mastina/Titus, especially with a JK which would make Datisi/Mastina useless

why has scum not tried to shoot Mastina? not tried to shoot Titus?

last night the kingsguard was Titus, GL, LLD, furtive, if Datisi is town and it's a GL/furtive team that seems like a pretty sweet time to make a run at Lord Commander by killing conf-town Titus

I feel you on no one has cased Datisi yet. I might try to do that if it will genuinely change your mind. but one issue is Datisi is a good mafia player and I wasn't really even suspecting him myself until he's had 3 checks and not given us any mafia with them. I doubt I could currently make a super convincing lock scum case even if I knew personally for a fact he was scum!

Regardless, a lack of a traditional mafia psychology case doesn't mean the mechanical argument is not good.

I don't understand this argument because even in the world where datisi is scum I'm sure not all of the clears are scum. I don't think scum!datisi just clears his 3 partners off the bat.

So that means that at least one of those people is town, so if scum were interested in shooting the conf town they could still just shoot the one that is town in either world.

In fact, them doing so would make datisi look better.

Like this only makes sense if you're making the argument that all of mastina-datisi-titus are scum together, otherwise scum could have shot in that group regardless.

[fireisredsir]

I don't understand this argument because even in the world where datisi is scum I'm sure not all of the clears are scum. I don't think scum!datisi just clears his 3 partners off the bat.

So that means that at least one of those people is town, so if scum were interested in shooting the conf town they could still just shoot the one that is town in either world.

all the clears are not scum bc there's only 3 left

but if 1 of them is scum, and datisi knows he's getting elimmed eventually, scum would not want to shoot in the pool of clears bc that narrows it and makes it easier to find the falsely cleared scum

i think the gameplan in that world is not to get datisi to endgame because that's never happening. there's no point in making him look better. there's just squeezing the maximum utility they can out of the situation